Open 624 Fire and Ice - Fire Mafia Wins

[Cobalting]

VOTE: ika 3 letters in name, 3 sides to a triangle... Anyone else see what I'm getting at here?

-PC

[Cobalting]

{beeboy}
{Snarky Snowman, Aristophanes}
{ika}
{Something_Smart, Shinobi}
{Viva la Gloria}

[Cobalting]

Cobalting what is that grouping?

Guess.

[Cobalting]

I'd pl shinobi if I had to

-pc

[Cobalting]

{beeboy}
{Snarky Snowman, Aristophanes}
{ika}
{Something_Smart, Shinobi}
{Viva la Gloria}

Because?

I dislike how you pushed it mostly.
What was the point of quoting her profile?

I'm a man.

I'd pl shinobi if I had to

-pc

Why?

I don't want you in lylo by your first impression

-pc

[Cobalting]

Nope they're just reads to set us off strong

-pc

[Cobalting]

Nope, other way around

-pc

[Cobalting]

Well, your reads are fairly awful then.

Vote Shinobi at any rate since he's your second best scumread? At least that placement was okay.

I know, but we are just trying to get places here.

-pc

[Cobalting]

Smart gives me bad vibes with his NAI shit

meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta

-PC

[Cobalting]

{beeboy}
{Snarky Snowman, Aristophanes, TheShadow}
{ika}
{Something_Smart, Shinobi, Supreme Overlord}
{Viva la Gloria}

[Cobalting]

Was supposed to be like "meta schmeta".


I hate meta.

-pc

[Cobalting]

Why don't you explain why you're thinking what you're saying?

Why would I?

{beeboy}
{Masquerade}
{Snarky Snowman, Aristophanes, TheShadow}
{ika}
{Something_Smart, Shinobi, Supreme Overlord}
{Viva la Gloria}

[Cobalting]

{beeboy, droog}
{Masquerade}
{Snarky Snowman, Aristophanes, TheShadow}
{ika}
{Something_Smart, Shinobi, Supreme Overlord}
{Viva la Gloria}

[Cobalting]

I'll talk to PhantomCobalt later.
{beeboy, droog, Masquerade}
{Snarky Snowman, Aristophanes, TheShadow}
{Something_Smart, Shinobi, Supreme Overlord, ika}
{Viva la Gloria}

[Cobalting]

everyone
give your reads on the top two wagons
asap

I'm one of them, my top scumread is the other.

But we're getting nothing from Ranger, and PC can't explain Ranger's reads, so I was hoping to get something from that slot.

To the contrary, you

have

got something: my lists. Have you tried running through them and trying to figure them out? It's not that hard. What sparks the change in the list? At what post do I make the list? (For instance, my last post changed the positioning of ika and Masquerade, but I'm only now quoting this post, so clearly, something prior to page 8 caused the change.) And so on.

Listing is a valid scumhunting technique.

[Cobalting]

Cobalting has made an effort to avoid analyzing anything.

As I said: fully false. If I was analyzing nothing, the list would remain unchanged. (Well, sometimes that happens, but when it does, I note it.) It has not. There have therefore been critical triggers invoking placement on the list. And I simply choose not to reveal them yet.

im amazed how ppl have been ignoring me

I haven't. I was thinking of maybe moving our RVS off of you, but then you had to be all scummy. I'm thinking you could maybe be town and of moving off, but I'm looking for something. Post more and I'll have a better read on you.

[Cobalting]

VOTE: Supreme Overlord.
Eh, still not fully comfortable with ika

especially

given multiball, but beeboy's right.
Not gonna share a wagon with him.

[Cobalting]

Dafuq is the problem sharing a wagon with scum if it is on other scum?

Well for a start: the strong possibility it's

not

on scum.

But Ranger is being useless and anti-town as hell by refusing to explain her reads.

Actually I'm getting great data points from it. Namely, players more likely to be scum trying to take advantage of the scenario (you and Shinobi stand out, but aren't the only ones) in contrast to frustrated town who simply don't understand me (namely, Masquerade). I already told players why I'm not explaining my reads: because I am dead serious in expecting others to put effort into sorting why I would have them. If players don't try, that's their problem, not mine.

I can only reveal my reads one time. I can get fourteen theoretical stances on my reads. Right now, we're at one, because the only person who guessed was beeboy, and beeboy guessed, "for reactions" (half-right) and "not actually serious" (the part that's wrong), and since me saying they were serious, hasn't contributed further thoughts on the list.

[Cobalting]

Speaking of which,
{beeboy, droog, Masquerade, Aristophanes}
{Snarky Snowman, TheShadow}
{ika, Silverwolf}
{Something_Smart, Shinobi, Supreme Overlord}
{Viva la Gloria}

[Cobalting]

In short: what I'm looking for is three things.

1. How players react to my lists. (I'm getting plenty on this one.)
2. What players think of the ordering on the list. (How much they agree with, how much they disagree with, etc.)
3. What players guess is the reasoning behind my list.

Obviously by saying this, I've removed almost any further advantage to #1. But the benefits behind #2 and 3 are still such that I'm not explaining further than this.

[Cobalting]

Sorry, made an error last list.
{beeboy, droog, Masquerade, Aristophanes}
{Snarky Snowman, TheShadow}
{ika, Silverwolf}
{Something_Smart, Supreme Overlord}
{Viva la Gloria, Shinobi}
This is where I'm

actually

at.

[Cobalting]

Is there actually something besides "people that want to kill me because I'm not explaining my reads are mafia" behind your scumreads

Yes. As shown by: Masquerade being my top-tier town in spite of him pushing me as scum, and me having had you all as scum

before

there was any sentiment about me being scum. If you want to play the OMGUS game, you'll lose since it was very clear: I had a scumread on you in my first post, and you didn't scumread me until after I had listed for a while.

Cobalting: Can you explain why I was placed above 4 people when I hadn't posted much of anything yet? Is it just that you have strong scumreads on those 4 or do you often put your nulls in the middle like that?

Both?

[Cobalting]

However - and I don't want to sound too lazy here - but I don't really feel like going through your ISO, played 'spot the difference' with your lists, then going back to the game pages to try to figure out what happened in between that caused your opinion to change.

Dude, the game's thirteen pages long.

Thirteen

.
You'd have a more compelling argument if it was thirty.

And I've been listing since page three; you could have started back then. Or even now. My list keeps changing now.

If you don't want to explain everything, maybe now that I've taken a stab at why you listed droog as town, you could explain your reasoning for that, at least?

I could explain a controversial read, but reads everyone agrees with, I see no reason to. droog fits that category: those who aren't townreading him are null-reading him.

Oh, and:
VOTE: Shinobi.

[Cobalting]

Cobalting, droog wasn't being townread at all at the point when you called him town. Why did you think so *at the time*?

Because I'm a hipster; I scumread scum and townread town before it's cool.

(I'm sorry, I had to.)

[Cobalting]

Shit, Viva is probably town.

No, Viva is probably Shinobi's scumbuddy.
(Which would make the other team {Supreme Overlord, Something_Smart} if I'm right on my reads. I'll check that in a bit. Need to get caught up first.)

[Cobalting]

It seems hella early for this.

Why? You seem to have agreed with most of my reads when reading through the thread at the same spot.

Shadow is the mislynch both factions are looking for, by the way.

[Cobalting]

Btw, if any of those reads would be wrong: Something_Smart is the towniest of the four right now, but he's still my current guess for fourth scum.
Viva's still looking bad, Shinobi gets worse each post, and Supreme Overlord isn't any better. They're all scumhunting, but they look like scum scumhunting, not town scumhunting.

[Cobalting]

{beeboy, Aeronaut, Masquerade, Aristophanes}
{ika, Silverwolf, Snarky Snowman, TheShadow}
{Something_Smart}
{Supreme Overlord}
{Viva la Gloria, Shinobi}

[Cobalting]

You think Viva and Shinobi are a team after Viva's big push on Shinobi early in the day?

Possibly? Honestly, though, it doesn't matter. I think both of them are scum. What type of scum is less important than simply recognizing them being scum.

[Cobalting]

TheShadow was the worst vote on your wagon regardless of your alignment and has an extremely nervous tone.

I got the exact opposite impression: TheShadow simply got bored and didn't care. That careless tone looks town to me. (Especially since, if I'm fully honest, I understand the feeling. I'm honestly not that invested in this game right now.)

[Cobalting]

If we want to swap wagons to say, Supreme Overlord or SS (who I'm scumreading now), I'm all for it.

If by SS you mean Something_Smart, I'd be down for either.
Or one on you for that matter.

[Cobalting]

The shadow lynch feels like a compromise lynch.

Eh, screw it. I'm taking you out of my preferred lynch pool. Who needs to go in replacing you, I don't know, but I wouldn't feel comfortable lynching you. This is true. Shadow is, very much, a compromise lynch, guaranteed to hit town.

Whatever. I'll settle for a Shadow lynch.
VOTE: Shadow
I'm tired.

This is, by

far

, the worst vote in the entire game.

VOTE: Viva La Gloria.

[Cobalting]

I agree entirely with SilverWolf's summary in post 501. Unforced claim in particular is bad. Since it doesn't appear anyone wants to look at Snarky either, I'll VOTE: TheShadow.

L-1.

Correction. Viva LaGloria's was the

second

-worst vote in the entire game.

[Cobalting]

Ika's was third-worst for what it's worth.

[Cobalting]

{beeboy, Aeronaut, Masquerade, Aristophanes}
{Silverwolf, Snarky Snowman, TheShadow}
{Something_Smart}
{ika}
{Shinobi}
{Viva la Gloria, Supreme Overlord}

[Cobalting]

I don't know what combination it is.
But {Viva, Supreme Overlord, Shinobi, ika} is almost-guaranteed to have all the scum.

TheShadow wagon I guarantee has all four on it at the least.

[Cobalting]

TheShadow (5): Shinobi, SilverWolf, Aristophanes, beeboy, Viva La Gloria

Plus Supreme Overlord and ika.
SilverWolf's push is ridiculously genuine. {beeboy, Aristophanes} both had votes that weren't the best, but I've townread their content otherwise. If I'm wrong about the four, then I'd look at them first. I'd need to review Shinobi's vote and reasoning, but Shinobi has been, and still is, a scumread.

Viva's vote was terrible, Supreme Overlord's was even worse, and ika's not much better.

[Cobalting]

Hmm, more accurate list then:
{Aeronaut, Masquerade, TheShadow, Silverwolf}
{beeboy, Aristophanes, Snarky Snowman, Something_Smart}
{ika}
{Shinobi}
{Viva la Gloria, Supreme Overlord}

[Cobalting]

After rereading the last couple pages, even MORE accurate:
{Aeronaut, Masquerade, TheShadow, Silverwolf}
{Aristophanes, Snarky Snowman, Something_Smart}
{beeboy}
{ika}
{Shinobi}
{Viva la Gloria, Supreme Overlord}
Something_Smart said the same stuff I would have. Snarky Snowman's push seems town. Aristophanes also looked like he was going to try, too.