Open 645: C9++ - Game Over

[a plain farmer]

Pedit: Ok, not voting Zach.

VOTE: Riddleton

[a plain farmer]

In my last 3 games, my first vote hit scum. Depending on your position on the Gambler's Fallacy, you may wish to vote Riddleton.

[a plain farmer]

That's not your reasoning, that's Lickety's ISO.

[a plain farmer]

Yep that's why I'm voting him

I don't suppose Lickety was who you had in mind when you were trying to get Bins to follow you to someone?

[a plain farmer]

In this game: Ranger and i flipped the same alignment for the first tine ever. I hope...

This is a very odd way of saying you hope Ranger flipped town.

VOTE: Transcend

I agree with Dunn here.

[a plain farmer]

Transcend seems townier today.

UNVOTE:

Ranger's readlists seem rather stratified. I'd like for her to point out some of the distinctions that resulted in her being able to define 8 different tiers. But for now it seems arbitrary. I'm not sure why Dunn was moved up to the same tier as the conftown, and I don't see anything Riddleton's done to be put in the tier below that.

Of the major wagons right now:
Dunnstral: I'm leaning town on him atm. It doesn't hurt that Zach doesn't seem alarmed by him.
Lickety: He seems like stubborn town.
Kappy: I'm a little bit more concerned aboutt his slot. 221 seems like over-rationalization.

{Ranger, Bins, Smithereeeens}

What does this mean?

I like the unvote, but why not vote someone in the game?

I've played in a few games where a suspected player gets replaced and everyone decides to give the replacement a break, only for him to turn out to be scum. Trying to avoid that by making sure the replacement is under pressure immediately.

But pressure isn't really pressure unless you actually scumread the slot. So do you scumread the slot?

[a plain farmer]

Zach is conftown though.

[a plain farmer]

And if you're going to insist Lickety then I'm going to insist you give something more than 'gut feeling.'

Okay. I have an N0 guilty on LicketyQuickety. There ya go. More than gut.

OK I feel stupid for having to state this (and more stupid for you saying it), but there is no N0 in C9++. And I just can't take this seriously because most the time N0 give a VT result and Cop wouldn't out themselves Day 1 and there is not even a guaranteed Cop in the game. The only scenario I can see a reason for a cop to come out day 1 is because they were a 1-shot. But again, I have never seen a game where a 1-shot Cop gets an investigative result N0. I can honestly say this is one of the more bizarre claims I have seen (barring some of the ones I have made tho).

IF YOU ARE COP, DO NOT COUNTER CLAIM THIS!!!

Lickety, man, I was townreading you . Why, if you're town, did the most obvious rebuttal not involve anything to the effect of "How could she get a guilty on me when I'm town?" I'm trying my best to treat this with a grain of salt, but as far as scumslips go, this is quite a biggie.

[a plain farmer]

@Bins: What did you do to look weird in the game, and did you get any useful reactions from it?

[a plain farmer]

If Lickety had just stopped after his first sentence, I wouldn't either. But then he goes on to wonder if 1-shot cops get N0s or just full cops, and says "I can honestly say this is one of the more bizarre claims I have seen" which seems to indicate he at least gave some bit of credibility to the notion that Ranger was making an actual claim.

[a plain farmer]

Because it's still just a scumslip.

[a plain farmer]

Rangers claim is so obviously fake I didn't feel the need to counter it with the obvious "your claim is fake." I had a very similar gambit pulled on me in my very first game with the same setup. I know the obvious arguments that would take place. I decided to forgo the obvious arguments for that reason.

Ok, so what am I supposed to think about this part?

And I just can't take this seriously because most the time N0 give a VT result and Cop wouldn't out themselves Day 1 and there is not even a guaranteed Cop in the game. The only scenario I can see a reason for a cop to come out day 1 is because they were a 1-shot. But again, I have never seen a game where a 1-shot Cop gets an investigative result N0. I can honestly say this is one of the more bizarre claims I have seen (barring some of the ones I have made tho).

Because it's still just a scumslip.

A scumslip usually denotes scum.

Nope. Scumslips (or, rather, things that look like scumslips) are usually just townie brain farts.

[a plain farmer]

@Bins: Did you learn anything from your Kappy tunneling?

[a plain farmer]

ey Bins:

@Bins: Did you learn anything from your Kappy tunneling?

VOTE: Dunnstral

I think you and Bins are scum-aligned together, I don't trust your defense.

Don't scum normally try to avoid overtly defending each other? What makes it scummy in this case?

[a plain farmer]

With great power comes great responsibility, Zach. You've been given a great power. You're not being very responsible.

[a plain farmer]

And if you're going to insist Lickety then I'm going to insist you give something more than 'gut feeling.'

Okay. I have an N0 guilty on LicketyQuickety. There ya go. More than gut.

OK I feel stupid for having to state this (and more stupid for you saying it), but there is no N0 in C9++. And I just can't take this seriously because most the time N0 give a VT result and Cop wouldn't out themselves Day 1 and there is not even a guaranteed Cop in the game. The only scenario I can see a reason for a cop to come out day 1 is because they were a 1-shot. But again, I have never seen a game where a 1-shot Cop gets an investigative result N0. I can honestly say this is one of the more bizarre claims I have seen (barring some of the ones I have made tho).

IF YOU ARE COP, DO NOT COUNTER CLAIM THIS!!!

Lickety, man, I was townreading you . Why, if you're town, did the most obvious rebuttal not involve anything to the effect of "How could she get a guilty on me when I'm town?" I'm trying my best to treat this with a grain of salt, but as far as scumslips go, this is quite a biggie.

This is also really terrible.

I don't trust enough people in this game.

The fact that he's questioning my vote using obvious WIFOM makes me think maybe he's right.

VOTE: a plain farmer

You're being the really terrible one here. :/

Did you not think the same thing when you ready Lickety's post? And scum do have a high tendency to not overtly defend one another. It's not WIFOMy to demand a bit more rigor when a scumread is based on it.

[a plain farmer]

And what complaint do you have with me?

[a plain farmer]

Read it again. I was asking "why, if you're town," did you think this? That is, how can someone with a town mindset come to that train of thought?

[a plain farmer]

I was worried about Bins but I think she looks more town than scum.

VOTE: iraonavp

Primarily for the opportunism and rhetorical contortions, secondarily for Kappy.

[a plain farmer]

Is something making you no longer scumread ira?

[a plain farmer]

I thought you were scumreading him even before you pointed out the Kappy thing.

[a plain farmer]

@mod: I'm voting iraonavp

Hi texcat. You'll come across a part of the game where LQ and Dunn have this back-and-forth that's mostly noise. If you want to see what it looks like without them, copy this into the address bar:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=200

Also, I think Smith's fistbump post was about the conversation he and Transcend had just had which had filled up a few pages and made it seem like the thread was moving faster, making Loop want to replace out.

[a plain farmer]

That didn't come out right. Try this:

Code: Select all

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=66955&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&user_select[]=21665&user_select[]=24233&user_select[]=24574&user_select[]=24198&user_select[]=27934&user_select[]=27869&user_select[]=26805&user_select[]=24065&user_select[]=27478&user_select[]=27716&user_select[]=26897&user_select[]=27091&user_select[]=24545&start=200

[a plain farmer]

I'm not preventing him from doing anything. You're construing whatever I say in the worst possible light.

[a plain farmer]

It helped me when I was going back through to read Bins' stuff :/

[a plain farmer]

@Umlaut: I get a sense you're tunneling on dave. For instance, 92 looks just fine to me considering the stage of the game we were in, and I feel like you're over-emphasizing minutiae in 658, 659, and 662.

To the degree that I'm worried about dave (which is not a whole lot- I'd put him at a town-lean), it's because his posts contain a high degree of IIOA.

[a plain farmer]

@Umlaut: I get a sense you're tunneling on dave. For instance, 92 looks just fine to me considering the stage of the game we were in, and I feel like you're over-emphasizing minutiae in 658, 659, and 662.

To the degree that I'm worried about dave (which is not a whole lot- I'd put him at a town-lean), it's because his posts contain a high degree of IIOA.

IIoA is a pretty decent Scum tell for Logical players like dave.

Do you have experience with scum!dave?

I'm just townreading him because I agree with most of what he's said and, aside from the IIoA, he hasn't really given me reason to scumread him yet.

[a plain farmer]

VOTE: a plain farmer

ugh...

Why?

Agreeing with someone is not really a good indicator of alignment in my experience. Without a conclusion, its really easy for logical players to use IIoA to get Town cred.

I generally agree. I am going to want dave to be a bit more proactive even before we get any flips. Have you observed IIoA in specifically him prior to this game though?

[a plain farmer]

Dunn, are you town?

I'll assume you're answer is yes, in which case you need to be helping town win. You can start by explaining to the rest of the townies who aren't so inspired why you think I'm scum.

I understand this will have the unwanted side effect of being cooperative, and giving me something to respond to, but surely the trade-off is worth it.

[a plain farmer]

Yes

[a plain farmer]

528 is my response to ira's scumread. The rest of votes against me come because my posts are "posty", or, like yours and Transcend's, don't have any further reasoning provided.

So if it seems like I'm acting they don't exist (which this conversation itself is enough to dispel) it's because I'd rather not contribute further to a waste of time.

[a plain farmer]

Everyone. But the best vote is ira. I know I'm biased here, but his jump on me was opportunistic as hell, and 564 is really forced. As if he wants to be seen pushing a wagon because he has this notion that town pushes wagons.

[a plain farmer]

If it were a random vote it would be fine, but Dave claims to actually be reading Dunn as scummy in that post on the flimsiest of pretexts. Read it again and tell me if you really think Dave could have read Dunn's post the way he acted like he did.

Dave was accusing Dunn of posting from a position of knowledge in a way that was indeed flimsy, but not extraordinary given it was page 4. Flimsy pretexts are still better than random ones.

I need you to tell me how I'm emphasizing minutiae here because, while maybe I'm picking on him a little, the points I'm

emphasizing

are pretty serious. Ignoring your own reads and only popping your head up when it's time to defend yourself is not a minor issue.

Regarding your point about dave talking about Transcend and LQ: What you're saying is not incorrect, in that dave did seem to have forgotten that Transcend wasn't accusing LQ of anything (which is something dave seemed to have picked up on when he originally made 285). But you seem to be applying ulterior motive in a case in which it is certainly not obvious that such motive exists. I don't think it does. But if you want to point out what you think dave's motive was, rather than merely that what he was saying was wrong, your read would be more useful.

Elsewhere in those posts, you make note of something you think looks bad (specifically dave's 657 and 660), but the thing in question doesn't on its face indicate scumminess.

It's a sign of tunneling when someone repeatedly points out that their scumread's posts are wrong or bad, but with no evident connection to alignment.

[a plain farmer]

He's a slight town-read. I would have him as scum, but I suspect that the things I find alarming about him result from norms picked up on other sites and relative inexperience with the norms on this site. This is of course no indication that he's town, but he's more defaulting to the town side of my reads atm.

[a plain farmer]

Thanks, Titus and RC.

I'd like to make note of the following regarding ira's case on me, in the unlikely event that any of you find it convincing:

- It's pretty much a trope of the site meta at this point that most scumslips ought to be taken with a grain of salt (and rightly so). That means they should neither be completely ignored, nor have whole reads attributed to them. LQ's slip was jarring, but he has seemed reasonably town otherwise, so I'm modulating my instinct based on my experience of how I should treat scumslips. That's why it can be a "biggie" and not all the worrisome at the same time. A tarantula the size of a dinner plate is small compared to a person, but it'd still be reasonable to call it a "biggie" and unreasonable to call it "puny". I feel like I shouldn't have to spell this out, but apparently it's necessary.

- I'm not sure how any of the posts ira linked to show me trying to convince him that LQ is scum. 528 perhaps could if you ignored the context and squinted as you read, but I was merely wondering how he misinterpreted my perspective.

- The scum!farmer camp needs to make up its mind. Am I ignoring the votes on me and pretending I'm scumhunting, or am I fleeing the noose and disregarding all else?

- If you remove ira's a priori assumption that I'm scum, his argument falls apart. It's almost as if, when he's reading one of my posts, he knows I'm town and then has to mentally go "nonono I have to think this guy is scum".

[a plain farmer]

Furthermore, texcat has bad interactions with LQ and iraonavp. Strike three.

How so?

[a plain farmer]

Ira's use of "-aligned" is quirky but NAI. Here's a game of his in which he's town, and he does it there, too.

But aside from that, he doesn't look in this game like the town ira of that game. In Mini 1777, he looks looser, less concerned with appearances, and less prone to doubt-casting.

How so?

Mostly on their end, but you get some really icky posts like 620 from texcat. 622 as well.

So, 578, 796, and 801 are bad for tex? I don't know about the LQ interaction, but if Ira's scum meta is to defend his partners then you might have a point.

[a plain farmer]

I prefer dave. It's mostly gut though.

VOTE: davesaz

[a plain farmer]

The post Zach quoted did make me suspect Dunn for a PR, but I also thought a PR wouldn't actually post something like that. His reads were not all that correct (his most consistent scumreads seemed to be ira and I). And he did seem to be mostly townread. I had him as a town-lean.

[a plain farmer]

@Umlaut: I'm a bit concerned that you never pushed back against 768, even if only to clarify. Is it because I was correct?

[a plain farmer]

@Titus
If you don't mind time-travelling for a bit, what was the reasoning of your townread on Ranger specifically as of post 900?


@dave

Titus, why didn't you freak out like you did in the other game with this setup?

What is this question referring to/why was it asked?

[a plain farmer]

If anyone who Titus is townreading wants to pose her that same question, I'll owe you one.

[a plain farmer]

@Umlaut: I'm a bit concerned that you never pushed back against 768, even if only to clarify. Is it because I was correct?

I don't really know what I was supposed to be pushing back against, since you didn't say what you found alarming about me.

I mean, I guess I could have pushed just for the sake of getting a stronger read on you, but I was kind of in the middle of something with Dave there.

Say, Farmer, what do you find alarming about me and why do you think it's learned from other sites?

I wasn't expecting you to make a push on me, but rather to remark in some way on how accurate or inaccurate my suspicions were. The assertion about other sites having formed your playstyle was basically just a superficial judgment based on 17 as well as my general gut feelings, and I thought it likely you'd have some reservations. That you didn't have any makes me worry that you didn't want to interfere because it might jeopardize the townread it helped give you.

[a plain farmer]

Sorry about my lack of comment on recent happenings. I'll be back tomorrow. I've been townreading Smithers, but I've also been feeling paranoid at how much I townread him, if that makes sense. An ISO and re-evaluation of him is on my to do list, but I might not get to that tomorrow.

[a plain farmer]

I don't even know what your suspicions are! What do you find alarming about that post anyway?

I've played probably 4-5 games offsite, years and years ago, and completed 4 games onsite. Make whatever you want of that.

I don't get why I should be trying to convince you not to townread me.

My "suspicions" (at least the ones I was specifically referring to with that word) weren't of your alignment, but of your playstyle.

In explaining my take on your playstyle,
1) I attributed your decisions to prior normative conditioning (which people usually take issue with).
2) I basically called you a noob.

Considering those things, I thought you'd respond to it as an affront to your honor, and say either "you're wrong" or "you're kinda right but [insert face-saving detail(s) here]".

But there's also the issue of me using this playstyle diagnosis to support reading you as town. I admit I'm one to tolerate error on the part of others if that error grants me a townread. But I'll also want to correct the error if I believe doing so could still preserve the townread.

So that's why I find your lack of response worrying. Not because you should be trying to convince me not to townread you. But because 768 seemed to cross a certain threshold demanding resistance of some kind to some degree, and I'm woried that none was given because of an unnaturally heightened fear of disturbing my townread on you.

[a plain farmer]

Transcend has become Titus, so I don't expect him to be posting in this thread for quite a while.

[a plain farmer]

Smithers' ISO still looks town to me. Texcat's ISO though seems sparse when it comes to game-solving, so I could get behind that lynch.

I'm townreading Titus so I'll accept her claim. Ranger was inching towards the scum end of my reads due to PoE, but we shouldn't think about lynching her today.

So my lynchpool now looks like this:

{LQ, dave, Umlaut, texcat}

Farmer, since you decided to call me out on not asking what you found scummy about me D1, are you going to actually tell me now that I have?

Not what I was calling you out on, but it was the dave tunneling.

[a plain farmer]

VOTE: texcat This is gut.

Lickety, Ranger's not happening today (and she does have legitimate reason to think you're scum). What's your read on texcat?

[a plain farmer]

You have played a fairly analysis heavy game up to this point. Why the gut read now?

I suppose that's how I've looked so far, but gut has informed all of my prior reads as well even when they were also based on other things. Right now I feel like my texcat scumread is simply stronger than any of my others.

[a plain farmer]

Transcend/Smither still makes sense without LQ ftr.

Just putting that out there in case this doesn't go well today.

Are you thinking it's not going to go well today?

[a plain farmer]

I guess I'm feeling better about Lickety. RC is trending in the other direction. I'm unnerved about how he's focusing on Titus.

Is there any reason behind the Bins votes aside from her failing to deliver on an ISO earlier?

[a plain farmer]

LQ, why are you jumping around with your vote so much?

[a plain farmer]

I'm not sure what to think about Lickety. Jumping around like he is isn't inherently scummy, but I don't get a sense from him that it's actually due to either alignment uncertainty or paranoia. My feelings aren't so mixed on texcat though so I still want to stay there.

1105 is the only thing anyone should need to be able to town read me.
Let me reinforce that some more. I want a L-1 in the next 3 days. I'd prefer it to be on someone in my probable scum list, but that isn't a requirement.

We had L-1 on texcat. What did you learn from that?

[a plain farmer]

It seems like Smithers' push on you is the application to himself of the logic he felt Bins should've been following, as articulated in 1288. I'm not too big a fan of that (scum can just say "I believe town should act this way" and preemptively shield themselves for when they do just that), but I don't think that in itself is enough to scumread him. What has he done previously that's scummy?

[a plain farmer]

It's because he's a scumfuck and if he believed in it he would have worded it differently. Vote him or me.

Good thing I'm not inclined to vote you or him atm because you'd probably be on the losing end.

[a plain farmer]

Texcat continues to be my preference. While I still say Smithers looks like town, I agree that the behavior we're seeing otherwise looks like SvS.

@LQ, what do you think about texcat and Smithers?

[a plain farmer]

Zach, you're probably still alive because you're voting town. :/

I need to think about what my lynchpool looks like. We know of 3 non-T letters, but we know there is at least a 4th. The other possibility is that there are 3 more, which means there's a godfather.

[a plain farmer]

It's not wifom. It's seeing the obvious disconnect between the gains of making optimal kills and the suspicion generated from making suboptimal kills. Let's assume you're the optimal kill. They could've killed you, and then still had people doubting both Titus and Ranger today. But now we know Titus was being truthful, and doubt of Ranger has been put on hold until we can figure out if there's a GF. And the IC is still alive. If they did indeed see you as the optimal kill, that is a lot to sacrifice in the name of wifom.

No one will think less of you for abandoning your tunnel in light of this evidence.

[a plain farmer]

Hi Postie. How does RC look to you?

He doesn't look good to me. Titus was leery of him. Umlaut was wishy-washy on him. RC ignored Umlaut. Their interactions (or lack thereof in RC's case) look very much like what I'd expect from two scumbuddies.

VOTE: RC

[a plain farmer]

My townread on the Smithers/Postie slot the past couple days has been based on a PR theory I had. Without revealing too much, her posts today have disproven that theory. But I have trouble seeing the Umlaut/Smithers interaction as SvS so I still think she's town.

One, Smithereens is obviously an Umlaut buddy.

Is this based solely on Umlaut's readlist? I agree that he'd probably hide his buddies in the "town?" and "null" tiers, but as I said above, I don't see anything else about their interaction that looks SvS. It looks to me like all remaining scum would be in that null tier (I'm feeling better about dave).

[a plain farmer]

VOTE: Lickety

VOTE: APF

again i think i know where this is gonna go

You think you know how I'm going to flip, but you still vote me? We're past the point where we should be doing information lynches.

[a plain farmer]

@mod: I'm voting Lickety, not myself. (here)

This Bins wagon is unsettling. The only way I'm able to make sense of it is that one them is scum just tossing bullshit in the air.

[a plain farmer]

I'm not totally opposed to massclaiming now, but think LQ will flip scum and we'd thus avoid mylo/lylo tomorrow. Also, we know they have a RB, so claiming now might help them with finding their block target.

I'll consent to it if Ranger does, and if so, she should have the final say on the order.

[a plain farmer]

At this point I don't give a shit about any of the PRs dying because Ranger is more valuable than any of them so I'm going to say we should massclaim right now.
The claim order is going to be as follows:
{LQ, Postie, APF, Bins, Davesaz, RC, Ranger}

Wait a sec. "Ranger is more valuable than any of them

so

I'm going to say we should massclaim right now"? What exactly is your reason for wanting a massclaim?

[a plain farmer]

What does RC mean though? Conftowning Ranger isn't a strong reason to massclaim, since she's basically 95% town already from what we know.

[a plain farmer]

Does Lickety/RC at the end of the last page/beginning of this one look like a scum-scum interaction, or am I confbiasing?

[a plain farmer]

Everyone on the list is potential scum, but Ranger is the least-potential scum.

But whether we even massclaim or not should be determined by Ranger, as well as the order. While we're waiting on her to get back to the thread, let's go ahead and get Lickety up to L-1.

[a plain farmer]

So are we lynching LQ or massclaiming? If there's a chance we lynch anyone other than LQ I'd like to massclaim. But Bins and Ranger are scumreading LQ and they're yet to vote him so I think this LQ lynch should be good to go?

[a plain farmer]

That's because it is.

[a plain farmer]

Dave, would you like to lynch LQ?

[a plain farmer]

If we're not doing the Lickety lynch, then let's do the massclaim thing. If you don't want to do the massclaim thing, then let's do the Lickety lynch.

Postie->LicketyQuickety->a plain farmer->RadiantCowbells->davesaz->Bins is what I'd do.

Postie, you're up. LQ, if you're around and Postie hasn't claimed yet, go ahead and claim.

Pedit: @Bins, we could potentially be in mylo/lylo tomorrow, which means we'd have a tough choice to make if two people claim the same role in a way that's not possible in the setup.

[a plain farmer]

It's not so much about how it will help us right now, but avoiding an impossible situation later.

But if you don't want to be faced with that, I'm pretty sure Lickety flips red, so we can lynch him and kick the can down the road.

[a plain farmer]

It's not so much about how it will help us right now, but avoiding an impossible situation later.

But if you don't want to be faced with that, I'm pretty sure Lickety flips red, so we can lynch him and kick the can down the road.

how about


we just

not do it because all it does is hurt the town

Alright, please vote Lickety.

[a plain farmer]

Bins, the best way to stick it to RC would be voting LQ and have his lynch end the day without the massclaim.

[a plain farmer]

Bins are you a full doctor or 1-shot doctor?

[a plain farmer]

1-shot vig here. Bins, if you roleblock someone, don't subsequently fakeclaim a target that could only be plausible if you were roleblocked.

I tried to shoot dave N1 (sorry ) but was blocked. And of course I got my man N2.

VOTE: Bins

[a plain farmer]

I was under the impression that if vig is RB then you still use your shot. Am I wrong here?

Evidently.

[a plain farmer]

GF is broken as well. As well as a 1-shot Vig that doesn't lose its shot.

GF has its uses. Vig that doesn't lose its shot is rediculous, that much is true.

Salty scum?

But yes it's possible Bins is town if they double-targeted Dunn. I'll look at everything again tonight.

@Dave: I can't pull up my posts now, but ctrl+f "Umlaut" in my ISO.

[a plain farmer]

Given what we already know (1C, 1M, 1V, 1 or 3 Ds, 1 or 3 Ts), I'm finding that there's statistically about a 96% chance we're in a D setup and a 4% chance we're in a DDD setup. Hopefully someone more confident in statistical things than I can take a look at this.

Between the two docs, I'm much more suspicious of Bins. She was crumbing way too much for an actual doc, and crumbing at all I'd rate as scummy. Not to mention that 2363 kinda sounds like "But we thought, if it was you, the shot would've been used up".

[a plain farmer]

You didn't know there would be anything capable of challenging the credibility of you having protected Dunn, since you didn't think I'd know I was blocked.

But yes, I do want to hear what Ranger has to say.

[a plain farmer]

Bins knew that the vig was 1-shot since the moment she found out that there was a vig. She knew there was a D (less likely, a B) when their N1 kill attempt on Zach failed, so there was only one letter left that was unaccounted for before Umlaut's flip. And, as she indicated, she didn't think her N1 RB hit the vig, since she did not know that a RB'd vig would be refunded shots. She can explain to us postgame why she chose to fake-claim targeting Dunn, but it remains that she had every reason to believe that we wouldn't have evidence enough to cast dbout on that choice of target.

@Those who want to lynch from the VT pool today:
There's a 96% chance we're in a single D setup, 4% chance we're in a DDD setup. If you're townreading both Bins and dave, that'd better be a damn strong townread to overcome that kind of a prior. Make sure you're accounting for everything we now know.

You'll recall at the beginning of D2 how bewildered we were at Dunn having been the target. Bins would now have us believe that the scum, texcat, and doc!Bins passed up on Zach and the reputed scumhunters (Titus/RC/Ranger) and all independently converged on Dunn. I don't buy it. But this is something you must believe if you believe Bins is town.

Then there's the ludicrous softing that she's done the past couple days. You'd normally expect doctors to be the roles least inclined to soft. It's as if when she found there was a doc she decided to make sure she could also claim doc in the event of a no kill.

So vote Bins.

[a plain farmer]

I'll make a deal with you Zach. We'll lynch Bins today, Lickety tomorrow, and then if the mod still wants to do vote counts after that we'll lynch Postie together. Sound good?

[a plain farmer]

CVMDDDT or CVMDTTT. 50/50 each.

This is not true. To use the random number generator example you brought up, our situation is similar to us having eliminated all other possible numbers except 7371 and 7372...but we also know that the generator is not completely random in that its chance of selecting 1 as a digit is much lower than its chance of selecting 2. This is the case with D and T in our setup (really, with the composite digit DD and the composite digit TT). So even though there are only two possibilities, it's not 50/50 between them.

[a plain farmer]

I definitely see how Postie could be our scum in the claimed VTs. I think I'd even prefer her lynch to Lickety's atm.

I still think Bins is the most likely to flip scum overall, but I've deployed all the big guns against her and yet we still seem unwilling to rally around her lynch. If there's no chance of that then I can do Postie, but for D4 everyone should make sure you've absorbed the points in 2452 and 2485 and make sure your reads can reconcile themselves with those facts.

[a plain farmer]

VOTE: Postie

This is L-1. I'd have no objection if Zach were to hammer.

[a plain farmer]

I'd be on board with a Bins lynch if there's the will for it in the town.

[a plain farmer]

VOTE: Bins

[a plain farmer]

VOTE: Postie

[a plain farmer]

Uhh, I went back and checked the votes to see where we are and disentangle this mess, and it seems that Postie was actually hammered as of my vote in 2654, with the wagon being Ranger, Zachstralkita, RadiantCowbells, davesaz, a plain farmer. The reason we thought it was only L-1 was because Zach had actually been voting Postie since 2448, but no one noticed.

So yeah.

@mod: Check the votes, I think Post is hammered from 2481 (Ranger), 2488 (Zach), 2587 (RC), 2652 (davesaz), and 2654 (me).

[a plain farmer]

I'm kinda hoping that it does stand, since it's an OK lynch an I'm not sure at this rate we'd actually be able to achieve another lynch today.

[a plain farmer]

I have no idea what should happen. I'm sure the mod and/or listmod would know the proper way of handling this.

[a plain farmer]

Since I thought it was at L-2, it was not intended to be a hammer. Would I have hammered if Postie had already been at L-1? I dunno, I'd probably have asked but I probably wouldn't have waited very long before hammering.

[a plain farmer]

OK, well if the hammer ends up not counting, I'm fine with lynching LQ. It's really a tossup between LQ and Postie of which VT I find scummier.

VOTE: LQ