Open 642 - The Woodshed - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

Howdy everyone!

[mhsmith0]

Yaassss. This is a good replacement.

-- Mail

[mhsmith0]

Trying to lynch Alpaca for not posting when literally no one is providing content is nice.

Alpaca literally has not voted since his one RVS vote. That's pretty terrible. I'm also not sure why his RVS vote was necessarily town; 28 reads pretty awkwardly to me.

PS Anyone want to guess why I really don't like Ranger's 134?

[mhsmith0]

But, I have to be completely honest here.

I lied.

I wasn't 100% sure you were scum at all.

I was actually less sure about you than I was on Music and Mail! Especially with your later posting.

I was kinda afraid I'd be getting lynched tomorrow, and then we'd be in D3 with no assured scum leads, my credibility shot, and nothing to go on.

Interesting how this comes from someone WHO WAS VOTING IV ON DAY ONE. Literally she was voting IV based on explicitly falsely stated reasons (the "100% sure" bit). So basically, rather than make any true effort to lynch her "greater" read (M&M) on day one, or try and force a "lynch that slot or lynch me" debate, she "settled" for IV, while explicitly maintaining at the time that IV was the greater read. It's the epitome of trying to line up lynches, and it's almost impossible to see this coming from an actual town perspective.

Also, note that last bit. Ranger was afraid of getting lynched D2, and yet she's currently voting herself. Why is that? Town is interested in finding the mafia; why in that context even CARE about whether you get to "survive" as a stump? Essentially, town has three mislynches before they lose the game (MAYBE four if we lynch "doused" trees or get lucky with firefighter actions). The value in finding actual mafia on day two DWARFS the value of getting to hang around post lynch. So why does town!Ranger go down this route? I really struggle to see it. Wolf!Ranger, on the other hand, can use the self-vote as a ruse to WIFOM and confuse the town while looking like she's acting from a pro-town mindset.

I'll let Ranger speak to her actions, and I don't want to give anyone the chance to lolhammer... but I feel like she's where my vote belongs today. Alpaca is also in my lynch range right now, and I'm willing to talk about Touka.

[mhsmith0]

So here's the final day one votes:

Innocentvillager

– (5) drmyshottyizsik, Ranger, Alexcellent, Kappy, BTD6_maker
35 - naked RVS vote, never goes anywhere else on day 1 (though he does actively push on IV throughout day 1)
117 - overreaction to IV's post
137 - weird hop onto IV - looking at 144 and 146, I'm really not sure why he took the active step to hop from the Ranger wagon onto the IV one, especially since 146 was a response to a post made AFTER his wagon switch.
186 - Kappy may be an OK vote there
211 - disclaiming responsibility for the IV vote as it happened

BTD6_maker – (2) AlpacaAlpaca, Music and Mail
28 - weirdly worded RVS vote, never goes anywhere else on day 1
195 - not an amazing vote, but I can see it as a plausible town process

Music and Mail - (1) KickAssAndGiggle
95 - basically an RVS vote. Unlike some other votes, he never posts again, so it's at least somewhat explainable to hold on to it.

drmyshottyizsik - (1)

innocentvillager

*irrelevant for sorting IV, we already know IV is town after the flip

Thoughts:
1) There's enough garbage votes on the main D1 lynch wagon that there basically HAS to be at least one wolf there (so I can mentally toss out Alpaca/M&M as a reasonably plausible team)

2) If there's one on, one off, I'd think the off would be Alpaca. OTOH, that wagon sucked enough that it could pretty realistically have been two wolves on.

3) If I'm looking for especially bad/suspicious day one final votes, I'm thinking inside {Ranger, Alex->Touka, BTD6, Alpaca}. Which, shock of shocks, is basically my lynch pool (though I'm willing to MAYBE consider the idea that BTD6's post hammer reaction was reasonably townie enough to push him off the shit list... except his votes continue to be sufficiently garbage for me to want him lynched too)

[mhsmith0]

If you're 100% scum, would you agree to get lynched tomorrow when you're wrong about me?

Of course you would. After all, there is no chance involved in 100% scum, right?

Please lynch Ranger immediately on D2 if I happen to get lynched kthxbai

You realise if you're lynched as town, you're not actually out of the game, you just lose your vote, right? This doesn't feel like it's coming from a tree's perspective.

Actually, I'd like to emphasize how bad this post is. IT DOES NOT MATTER IF YOU ARE STILL IN THE GAME. IT MATTERS A LOT IF TOWN WASTES A MISLYNCH ON YOU. IV's attitude of REALLY not wanting to get mislynched, and trying to assign blame for his mislynch if it goes through, is absolutely healthy and pro-town.

I almost want to go through the thread and see where I can find evidence of people breeding apathy towards mislynches anywhere (I'm sure I've seen it pop up at times), because that's just flagrantly anti-town. MISLYNCHES ARE BAD. REALLY REALLY REALLY BAD. "Oh, well at least you were only stumped" is gross. We're not here to play "who gets to be stumped instead of burned", we're here to find the two mafia and lynch them. Detracting from the meaning and usefulness of lynching and voting data is bullshit. We have two chances to screw up, and MAYBE we'll end up with a third screwup that keeps the game alive if we get kinda lucky. We need to actually take this seriously.

[mhsmith0]

If for some ungodly reason I read them wrong and they're town, then they can still scumhunt as invincible town who cannot be nightkilled and therefore cannot be silenced.

Win-win as far as I can tell.
Ergo, we're lynching Music and Mail no matter what.

Yep, here's the first "breeding apathy towards the consequences of mislynching" post that I found. SHOCKING that it came from Ranger

[mhsmith0]

I like the new guy

Can't tell what my read on him is yet though.

Smith is awesome. The rest is details

[mhsmith0]

Well I could slap an L-1 on Ranger, that'd at least make things a bit more exciting. I'd still rather hear her defense first though. Hopefully the less active players start to play more; lurking is LAME, as either alignment.

[mhsmith0]

BTD and M&M seem scummy to me
I town read Touka
null-town on Ranger, Kappy
null on Shotty and Sicko

Why on all of these? In particular your town read of Touka and wolf read of M&M. Also not sure why you're null-town on Ranger, that'd be helpful too.

[mhsmith0]

yay everyone self vote for /in-stant town cred

I already explained my reasons.
One, almost everyone is suspicious of me.
Two, I can continue to talk after I'm lynched.
Three, I'm having difficulty getting good reads this game.
Four, I promised I would to innocentvillager yesterday.

So I'll move my vote if I can actually get something productive done. Strong feelings, rather than weak or paranoid ones.

Yeah I don't buy this as a real town process, especially given the doubling down. No townie WANTS to get lynched. This seems WAY likelier to be a fake town process designed to create confusion and "Ranger wouldn't do this if she was mafia" artificial town reads.
VOTE: Ranger

L-1

[mhsmith0]

{Ranger, Smith, M&M} this wins us the game

What's the source of your wolf read on both me and M&M?

[mhsmith0]

Also, does this mean you have intent on Ranger? Want an official "just in case you changed your mind on that tree claim" role claim first? (you should).

[mhsmith0]

Okay, if Ranger flips town there is almost NO way both scum are off that wagon. Ranger is the easy lynch right now in a state of apathy, regardless of what alignment she is.

I'd be fairly surprised if she were to flip town. Call it like 60% wolf odds. And I really don't see a better case right now.

[mhsmith0]

I'd lynch smith or M&M over Ranger in a heartbeat.

Providing reasons is the cool thing to do. Don't you want to be cool?

[mhsmith0]

PS Compare and contrast what you're seeing from me this game to what you say from me as wolf. I won't belabor my garbage showing in the billionaire game, but even the newbie game we played together, do you really think that I look similar to that? If so, how?

[mhsmith0]

1) "That's plenty reason to self-vote. Especially since I won't actually die." except... you do. You die if you get lynched. That's the point. If you're town, and you get lynched, you waste a town mislynch (which town can ill afford). AND THAT IS THE POINT.

No townie WANTS to get lynched

is EXACTLY the point. If you're town, eating a lynch just because you're not feeling confident in your reads or so the town can "move on" or whatever is TERRIBLE play. If you're town, the whole thing is selfish and anti-town. OTOH, if you're mafia, self-voting to confuse townies and generate an artificial town read is NOT terrible play.

The ploy you're running was either nakedly town bad play, or some weird town gambit to try and draw in crap votes, or it was a wolf gambit to create a false town read on yourself. I consider it FAR likelier that it was the last of those.

2)

I think you're scum because I don't think a town-you is this off-base about a case on a player. Which in this case happens to be me.

that's basically OMGUS logic, dressed up a bit.

3)

the mhsmith I know as town that will look at problems from multiple angles. In short, you're construing a specific scenario that uses contrived jumps, whereas a town you is asking a bunch of questions, is prodding a bunch of people, is looking at many perspectives, and tries to come up with all solutions and figure out which ones are the most likely.

Sure. And right now the most likely answer is that you're mafia pulling a ploy. Like, you have to see how this is a very plausible read of your actions in this game so far. Also, remember that I DID look at it from mulitple angles. They just all pointed to you being likely mafia.

4) wrt IV, the ESSENTIAL problem is that you yourself stated that you had a stronger read on M&M. So why not try and build the wagon there? It's a weird process to NOT try and wagon your strongest read. And "I hate scumreading a player and then backing down from it even more" is not a town thought process (though admittedly I'm not super familiar w your specific meta, so this is general, not ranger-specific). Town is looking for the best lynch, either to find the best lynch or to drive the best lynch. Wolves are looking to make themselves look good, or to blend in, etc. There is simply no good reason NOT to back down on a "weakened" read, if you're town, while there is plenty of reason to avoid backing down on a lynchable (even if "weakened") read if you're mafia.

5) The offer in 147 was simply never credible. And now that you're in a position where you're in actual danger of that "offer" getting cashed anyway, you're pushing elsewhere. It's almost like... somehow... that offer was always just posturing and never actually sincere. Shocking, I know.

6) Want to guess at what I hated about 134?

[mhsmith0]

PS Alpaca's your #2 team read on gut alone? He of the one single vote (RVS) all game? Please tell me you have more than just gut on your side there.

[mhsmith0]

Frankly. To be blunt.
I died in our newbie game N1.
I didn't get to see much of your play there. I'll probably be reading your play that game as part of my duties as an IC (so, tomorrow), meaning you'll get the superficial analysis you're asking for then.

FYI that one was at Touka. He's seen me twice as anti-town now. Curious where his read is coming from.

[mhsmith0]

wrt M&M, some specific posts I'd noted on my read-through:

255 felt extremely honest. Unless you want to tell me Postie is really good at faking tone when she's mafia (in which case links please)
327 I agreed with this
339 was also my gut reaction to Touka
369 was also my gut reaction to Touka, although I thought more wolfy than necessarily obv!wolf

like, those are four posts in particular that I thought suggested the slot was town. Probably not a coincidence that they all came from Postie, who seems easier to read than RC.

[mhsmith0]

I'm seeing elements, and I like his reads, but I'm not at the point where I'd risk the game on him being town.

You must be insanely confident in a smith/M&M mafia team then, since you're also in his top three.

{Ranger, Smith, M&M} this wins us the game

Or did you mean his earlier

{BTD6, Kappy, Sickofit}

Let's lynch in here.

[mhsmith0]

...
Meta like that is wrong in my opinion. I don't like scum reading people or town reading people solely because of similarities between last play. Does it help? Sure. Does it impact my read now? No.

Your read on Ranger feels opportunistic and your push on Alpacas reads as meh.
Also your slots past players probably all replaced out for a reason and the original owner of your slot made some pretty bad votes.
You are also defending M&M for what appears to be no reason.

Pedit: that is a terrible read based on agreeing with a terrible read oh my.

1) How were M&M's reads on you terrible? And what about the first post I'd cited (not directly relating to you)?

2) How was my Ranger push opportunistic? Because she had a wagon? Surely it wasn't because she's incapable of fighting back; I don't think "easy target" really describes ranger particularly well.

3) I kinda did talk about Alex, back in my D1 voting notes. His hop from Ranger to IV seemed ill-explained, and inconsistent with his stated positions wrt Ranger and IV. I also noted how much I hated his 146, which is the sort of post that serves to minimize the psychological importance of the lynch, notably the consequences of a mislynch. What else from Alex's work do you think is worth special attention?

[mhsmith0]

I feel like you ignored all the alex posts as well which is really scummy,

Pedit: oh god my reads evolved after I entered a game myself what a surprise.

There nothing wrong w evolving reads. I'm asking ranger which particluar reads of yours she liked, since she simply said that she liked your reads without explaining further.

[mhsmith0]

So I am scum because I made a set of neutral statements that I specifically stated where not neutral statements later in the game?

Because only scum don't know the roles in an open, to busy being scum to check.

Btw, this is like the opposite of the point. If touka truly didn't know the setup, he's likelier town (since wolves are likelier to be careful and do things like bother to read the setup). If touka was faking such ignorance, of course, then he's almost certainly a wolf.

VOTE: beeboy
just claimed scum

Quite possibly.

UNVOTE: Music & Mail

I need a rethink on my rethink which was itself a rethink.

And here's ranger taking that crappy read and considering a sheep of it.

[mhsmith0]

I hold RC to a different standard: perpetual scumreads, always anti-Town, and never of any help whatsoever. See Newbies 1700 and 1708 for why.

And what do you think of the back and forth between me and ranger?

[mhsmith0]

You're currently a scumread, about the same as Ranger. However, a Ranger/Mhsmith team is rather unlikely.

Do you have opinions on the specific things that were said? Reasons why you have us as scum reads? Reasons why you're presuming we're not just doing theater?

[mhsmith0]

@alpaca: if you're not sure, then you need to do the work to develop a read. Part of that work is generally considered to be voting on your best read.

In general I don't actually vote until I am sure of somebody, I am not super big on pressure votes, though apparently I have to learn since voting for someone you aren't sure of is considered towny.

Doing work to solve the game is considered towny. Not doing work to solve the game is not considered towny. If you're town, you're not giving us the data we need in order to read you.

[mhsmith0]

Really think Alpaca was scum who was consciously lurking.

Really don't like them jumping in and finally producing comment when we voted them.

I want them lynched today.

Maybe. Lurking may simply be his play style though (and if THAT is the case hopefully I can help cure him of that). I want a better read on him than "lurker". Btd6 as well.

[mhsmith0]

So it's... Fake confirmation bias then? I'm not really sure where you're going w this tbh.

[mhsmith0]

Let's make a deal.

We get lynched today but everyone just lynches who we say to for the remainder of the game.

Otherwise I'm done making any effort to cooperate with you guys

I decline this deal. I'd like to actually scum hunt.

[mhsmith0]

Really think Alpaca was scum who was consciously lurking.

Really don't like them jumping in and finally producing comment when we voted them.

I want them lynched today.

If this isn't confirmation bias I don't know what is.

How exactly is that confirmation bias?

[mhsmith0]

Really think Alpaca was scum who was consciously lurking.

Really don't like them jumping in and finally producing comment when we voted them.

I want them lynched today.

If this isn't confirmation bias I don't know what is.

How exactly is that confirmation bias?

He ignored the entire post to come to the conclusion that Alpaca is only posting because he was under pressure.

Fwiw that appears to be the most thoughtful post alpaca made all game. I'm not convinced that m&m is right about him only doing it due to pressure, but it's a plausible interpretation.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt alpaca, I want to see more from him so that I can sort him. I'm not ready to make any kind of strong read there right now.

[mhsmith0]

Says his reads are too valuable too ignore
Uses confbias

Stop sheeping touka. Why do YOU think it's confirmation bias?

[mhsmith0]

So basically the only way I wouldn't have seen scummy posting something was if I waited until I was prodded than joined in? Cause how I read that is once I am voted and asked to post more, posting more makes me scummy.

totally sheeping touka and didn't say it first

Ok. That's not necessarily confirmation bias though, but I can see why you might reasonably think it. Sleeping accusation withdrawn.

[mhsmith0]

Lots of things could explain my actions if I'm mafia. Otoh ...

Wrt alpaca, I want to see more from him so that I can sort him. I'm not ready to make any kind of strong read there right now.

Like this is EXPLICITLY my explanation. I'm not buddying (in what world does THAT look like buddying?), I'm not coaching, I'm trying to get meaningful engagement from him so I can sort him.

[mhsmith0]

Lots of things could explain my actions if I'm mafia. Otoh ...

Wrt alpaca, I want to see more from him so that I can sort him. I'm not ready to make any kind of strong read there right now.

Like this is EXPLICITLY my explanation. I'm not buddying (in what world does THAT look like buddying?), I'm not coaching, I'm trying to get meaningful engagement from him so I can sort him.

By saying don't do this or don't do that you aren't wanting more out of him, you are explicitly saying you want more town out of him

I wanted more thought and engagement from him. I found his ISO woefully short of useful AI indicative postings, and would prefer not to essentially just have a lurker lynch. If we're to lynch him, I want it to be the right lynch with enough info for me to be confident it's the right lynch. Or I want him to prove to us that he's town, and we lynch someone else (with ranger currently being my best candidate).

[mhsmith0]

Also he could just be trying to slow roll his way onto the wagon and be doing a poor job.
Like a lot of things could explain his actions as scum without Alpaca.


pedit: Well me and Ranger think Alpaca is town. If Ranger is town like I think she is achieving a lynch on Alpaca will require the cooperation of every single member of the town while having both scum on board.
So smith could easily just be trying to buddy up as the lynch isn't that easy to achieve.

Why are you town reading alpaca again? I relooked at your ISO and I saw a town read stated but I don't think you ever explained WHY you were town reading him.

[mhsmith0]

Town: Alexcellent
Null-Town: Kappy; Alpaca
Null: BTD6; drmyshotty; Kickass; Music & Mail
Scum: Ranger; InnocentVillager

IV is in the scum pile largely for 110, the apparent strong need for everyone to agree with his reads and the non-committal Ranger vote. Also didn't get a good vibe from the way he was reacting to shotty.
Ranger's strangely confident reads list doesn't strike me as necessarily scummy itself - just weird. I don't know where the reads come from.

But I do dislike her more recent posts and the sudden jump from M&M to IV is pretty jarring and unexpected, considering how strong her scum read was on M&M.

Also, she appears to be dodging Alpaca's question (116). Gonna do this.

VOTE: Ranger

That's L-1!!

...

UNVOTE: Ranger
VOTE: InnocentVillager

Touka, what do you make of this pair of posts, made about an hour apart? Alex states that Ranger's "jarring and unexpected" "sudden jump" was wolfy, and then basically does the same thing (except he hops from Ranger to IV instead of M&M to IV). Do you see anything that happened in between his Ranger vote and his IV vote that especially justified the vote hop?

[mhsmith0]

I'm trying to see what you have to say about that sequence. It seems weird to me, but there was a specific question asked. Asking again to highlight it:
Do you see anything that happened in between his Ranger vote and his IV vote that especially justified the vote hop?

[mhsmith0]

And to clarify: "stuff happened" in those 11 posts doesn't really do it. WHY do you think there was information in that sequence to justify the seemingly naked vote flip, especially given that Alex himself called that out as (in his mind) a wolf tell?

[mhsmith0]

Reading this in more detail, comments in bold orange

You die if you get lynched.

In a normal game, yes.
But this mechanic is basically a nerfed version of the shortnight/longnight mechanic.
In that I don't actually die.
I can still contribute.

And from my wagon, scumhunt.

Yes but from what he is saying he just doesn't want to waste a lynch on a town since that means that scum basically get one extra turn to prime something for free, so if you know you are town you shouldn't want to mislynch yourself.

It's more than that. Town auto loses on either the third or fourth mislynch (depending on night actions and whether we lynch primed trees). IMO people are WAY too relaxed about this.

~~~~~~~~~~~
Also M&M do you always make posts like these since they, in my opinion detract from your overall towniness.

Spoiler:

Autolynching Ranger tomorrow for this.

fuck yourselves.

If we get lynched here I'm not posting anything besides votes on Ranger for the duration of the game.

Stop being bad and vote Touka.

-- Mail

How do these posts detract from the slot's townieness? Because they're being rude? I could see 268 being a bad post, given that it's OMGUS in response to Sick wolf reading M&M (though alongside Ranger, who M&M also has been pushing). MAYBE you could make a case for 400 being bad because it's a vote for a bad reason, but it's transparently a temper tantrum, which again doens't seem meaningfully wolf-indicative. And the other posts there seem null at worst; how do you think these posts reflect a mafia alignment?

This town is so bad that at this point my main priority is lynching the people who are pissing me off so they don't win if they're scum rather than lynching scum.

VOTE: Drmyshottyszik

This is both.

How do these posts detract from the slot's townieness? Because they're being rude? I could see 268 being a bad post, given that it's OMGUS in response to Sick wolf reading M&M (though alongside Ranger, who M&M also has been pushing). MAYBE you could make a case for 400 being bad because it's a vote for a bad reason, but it's transparently a temper tantrum, which again doens't seem meaningfully wolf-indicative. And the other posts there seem null at worst; how exactly do you think these posts reflect a mafia alignment?

~~~~~~~~~~~

Trying to lynch Alpaca for not posting when literally no one is providing content is nice.

Alpaca literally has not voted since his one RVS vote. That's pretty terrible. I'm also not sure why his RVS vote was necessarily town; 28 reads pretty awkwardly to me.

PS Anyone want to guess why I really don't like Ranger's 134?

In general I don't actually vote until I am sure of somebody, I am not super big on pressure votes, though apparently I have to learn since voting for someone you aren't sure of is considered towny.

Seriously. If you are town, your posts should be pointed towards finding the best lynch or pushing the best lynch (once you've found it). If you're not sure of the best lynch, then you need to be working hard to figure out what it is. Also, unless you're in serious danger of getting lynched (and you're not currently a leading wagon), whether you are "considered towny" should be FAR from the top of your list. Find mafia. Kill mafia. Scum hunt. If you're town, that's your job.
And yes, voting is part of that job. You will just about NEVER have a "sure" read on someone. Make your best vote anyway. Or to quote the GM from my first game...

What matters most is what is written in Red and what is next to what is written in Red. i.e. When you are trying to kill someone. Is your desire to prioritise that particular person's lynch and your cited reasons for doing so sincere or not? That is the data that really gets you scum hunting. By half-way through the day at the latest - put a vote down. See how the votee reacts. See how other people react to your vote. Does someone vote for you for your vote. Great. You are town and they are wrong, but did it feel sincere? Does someone else join your vote in a way that seems insincere? And so on. Anyone hanging back and wishy-washing the day away is pretty vote worthy

Spoiler: Alpaca, this is you

just in case I'm being too subtle about it

, but if everyone is doing noting then how can you tell who is scum? Town have just incubated a perfect mafia play ground.
The VIAP lynch could perhaps have been iteration one of several potential iterations in d1. Get everyone voting then have a look at those votes and see where you might go next if anywhere.
d2 starts - vote early. You've seen d1 and re-read and had a chance to reappraise in the light of death reveals. Where is your thinking now? Put it in red. Take a stand. Make others commit to putting something in red and make the mafia defend their red votes. The mafia love not having to take firm positions and have all sorts of voting options open because they are always playing tactically. They are not trying to solve the puzzle.

~~~~~~~~~~~

BTD and M&M seem scummy to me
I town read Touka
null-town on Ranger, Kappy
null on Shotty and Sicko

Why on all of these? In particular your town read of Touka and wolf read of M&M. Also not sure why you're null-town on Ranger, that'd be helpful too.

I shall go through in order
BTD (scum) - I don't like post 57 where he votes his highest town read, I mean how about voting your top scum read? His whole stance on lynching Ranger and how it will be beneficial either way annoys me, If he was pusshing Ranger as scum I wouldn't have a problem but than he says

...a lynch on town Ranger is not too bad...

Great, you noticed something you don't like. Why didn't you push him on this? This was over 200 posts before this mega-quote of yours. In your 434 you note you didn't like his Ranger vote. Why didn't you vote him right there and then for it? In 436 you say that BTD and M&M "seem scummy to me"; why wasn't your vote on one of them? If a serious criticism of another player comes with a vote it's meaningful, and moves the game forward. Otherwise it's just words.

M&M (scum) - As mentioned above I really don't like some of their posts where they just seem fed up with the game and just say Ranger or nothing. Basically for the beginning of the game they only try and attack Ranger while labelling IV as obvtown and their reasons for that in post 160 I didn't see as giving IV an obvtown status. Later he mentions that he scum reads BTD but doesn't really pursue it and is right back on Ranger and than later mentions he town reads BTD after a re ISO. Than Touka seemingly distracts him from Ranger which is surprising but I don't like that he is scum reading Touka for being Beeboy I mean she is playing on an alt presumably so she can play differently and not get insta scum read for it. Than there is a terrible vote on Shotty and an understandable vote on myself. Overall I am not seeing a town mindset here more of just death tunnelling some of the people who attack him.

Great, you noticed something you don't like. Why didn't you push him on this? This was over 200 posts before this mega-quote of yours. In your 434 you note you didn't like his Ranger vote. Why didn't you vote him right there and then for it? In 436 you say that BTD and M&M "seem scummy to me"; why wasn't your vote on one of them? If a serious criticism of another player comes with a vote it's meaningful, and moves the game forward. Otherwise it's just words.

Touka (town) - I town read the person who Touka replaced in post 281 and I liked Touka's intro analysis of everything since she actually took the time to read the whole game. I agree mostly with her most recent reads except that I am still on the fence about Smith.

This is a nothing read. "she actually took the time to read the whole game" (and it's he, despite the avatar) is not alignment indicative. WHAT did you like about his analysis? WHAT do you agree with on his "most recent reads"?

Ranger (nulltown) - I don't like that she held back on explanations earlier but she did say that if it came to a point where she had to explain to save one of her town reads she would be more than willing, but at that point in the game and considering there isn't much posting going on it would have been helpful. Her tunneling of M&M was basically entirely for meta reasons at the beggeing but under pressure M&M seemed much more scummy than they were before. I was honestly surprised that IV flipped town however I can't say for sure say whether its becaue Ranger is scum trying to push mislynched or is she was just wrong and I have a gut feeling it was the latter so until former notice I am null reading with a little side of town here.

This is another nothing read. I get that you're new, but you need to try harder. You say she tunneled on M&M "basically entirely for meta reasons". Is that good? Suspicious? Is that worth you making active comments and engagement at the time it happened? And the last sentence is complete nothing. What you want to ask yourself is whether Ranger SINCERELY thought that IV was mafia. Was she being sincere and honest in her engagement and her vote? If the answer is yes, that's worth a town read. If the answer is no, that's worth a vote. If the answer is "I don't know" then you should be re-reading and/or actively asking questions and engaging in order to find out. You're not particularly doing this.

Kappy (nulltown) - Not too sure what to think of Kappy since a lot of his posts are not related to anything though in general he seems to be hunting for information to use to identify scum.

If you think that "a lot of his posts are not related to anything " then you think he's active lurking. That's mafia-indicative. Not town indicative. But you also say "he seems to be hunting for information to use to identify scum". What such work did you like? Did specifc posts jump out at you as being "not related to anything" (bad) or "hunting for information to use to identify scum" (good)? Again, what you're saying here is fluff. Back it up.

Shotty (null-) - He doesn't explain a lot and he doesn't seem to anything that benefits town, a town of fluff. He also jumps around a lot which kind of confuses me like in post 351, and 374 he says he is sucm reading Touka than in post 385 he is all of a sudden town reading Touka. I am leaning more scum in this slot but still nullish for now.

Great, you're developing a read (or trying to). Ask him about why he made this change. See what he says. See if you believe him. Do the work to figure him out.

Sicko/Smith (null+) - The 2 slots before Smith were useless so I had him labelled as null and now I am going to need a little more time to read you fully however, right now I agree with a quality amount of what you have written and you asking good questions. I am leaning a town read on you but that is pending further notice.

What specifically do you agree with? Which of my questions were good? Have I said anything suspicious? If so, ask me about it. If not, then see how people are engaging me, and see if any of their repsonses are suspicious. Then ask them about those responses. This is how you become part of the discussion and part of the game.

[mhsmith0]

@Alpaca, I'll be blunt: if you were anything other than a new player, I'd be entirely happy to vote for you. As it is, you're in my lynching range. If you're town, you need to make a serious effort to engage and solve the puzzle. And if you're mafia, you need to make a serious effort to pretend to be trying to solve the puzzle.

[mhsmith0]

Maybe Alex just reevaluated his Ranger read all together. I really don't know.

Well, do you think there was something in those 11 posts that made Ranger look especially town (or that especially answered Alex's stated suspicions), or that made IV look especially suspicious? You're the occupant of the slot, you're the one who knows for sure whether this whole thing was sincere or just a charade. Since if you're town you'd know if was sincere, you're the one best equipped to speak for Alex's actions. Because if there isn't a good explanation, then it looks like he was just faking it, and that's my current interpretation.

[mhsmith0]

Post post edit: the M&M comment should have been:
M&M isn't "scum reading Touka for being Beeboy". That's not what M&M is doing at all here. Specifically, re-read

If I didn't know you were Beeboy and you didn't just jump on me in this terrible way I'd consider it.

M&M is being pissy at Touka for being Beeboy, but there's a substantive accusation here, and it's the substantive accusation that matters. M&M also posted

I really wish I wasn't playing this game.
Touka stop being awful.

in response to

mhsmith and M&M's reads just feel like a bunch of confirmation bias.

But it isn't even good confirmation bias it is like they are trying to seek a lynch not actually find a scum lynch.

So, who do you agree with here? You're town-reading Touka and wolf-reading M&M, so I think you agree with Touka's accusation but think M&M's accusation here is unfair. If this is the case, why do you think it? And given what I've just said here, do you STILL think M&M's read is just about "Touka being Beeboy"? If so, WHY do you think this?

[mhsmith0]

Maybe Alex just reevaluated his Ranger read all together. I really don't know.

Hey Alpaca and Touka, do you guys want to talk about why you're town reading each other? I'm not seeing either of your slots as especially town, and I'm curious what you are seeing about each other that I'm missing.

[mhsmith0]

^ignore the quote on the above post, not sure why it got copied in.

[mhsmith0]

For the record, this is symbolic.
VOTE: Music and Mail.
I also wasn't fond of Kappy's 289.
But if another vote is places on M&M, I'm unvoting.
I want the vote there as a method of official record, in the VC history.

Can you walk through how m&m went from 95% wolf to just a symbolic vote that's explicitly stated as a "I don't want anyone to follow me here" sort of thing?

[mhsmith0]

Ranger was actually my weakest scum read out of {Ranger, Touka, Mhsmith, M&M}. The scumread was mainly due to her self-voting and "promise" to get lynched. Now I don't see that much reason to scumread her so I should vote another scumread.

VOTE: Mhsmith

Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage.

Dude you just slapped on an l-1 vote for "well he's a scum read". WHY am I worth a vote from you?

[mhsmith0]

@drmy, m&m: you guys asked about my interactions w alpaca earlier. One of the weaknesses in my game is I struggle to differentiate bad/indifferent town from mafia. Btd's vote on me was pretty much terrible, but whether it's AI or simply bad town, honestly I'm not sure. I would LIKE to get more from him and alpaca so they can be sorted. Or we could just guess at which (if any) of the newbie lurkers is actually mafia. That game is ways fun.

[mhsmith0]

Ranger was actually my weakest scum read out of {Ranger, Touka, Mhsmith, M&M}. The scumread was mainly due to her self-voting and "promise" to get lynched. Now I don't see that much reason to scumread her so I should vote another scumread.

VOTE: Mhsmith

Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage.

Ps there is a LOT of time left in the day. You're right that a lone vote won't do much, but if you think there's a case you should be selling it. Or you could just give up on what you say is your best read and force the rest of the board to guess if you're mafia or just bad town.

[mhsmith0]

Ranger was actually my weakest scum read out of {Ranger, Touka, Mhsmith, M&M}. The scumread was mainly due to her self-voting and "promise" to get lynched. Now I don't see that much reason to scumread her so I should vote another scumread.

VOTE: Mhsmith

Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage.

Dude you just slapped on an l-1 vote for "well he's a scum read". WHY am I worth a vote from you?

Why are you worth a vote? What are you taking it personally that you are being voted? Everything yo have done has been from a scum mindset
VOTE: smith
that's hammer. GG scum

p-edit
the whoa's me I can't scum hunt yet defense isn't going to work on me
still hammer time

Ultimate lol hammer. Nice.

Ps you either have no idea what is a scum mindset or you're just faking it. I kinda lean the former though.

[mhsmith0]

Well I guess we will have to see what everyone else has to say in twilight. Why did you think I was mafia again?

[mhsmith0]

Well I guess we will have to see what everyone else has to say in twilight. Why did you think I was mafia again?

Your general mind set, plus the past two posts have helped.

What bugged you about my "general mindset"?

[mhsmith0]

Still think Shotty's scum.

Tbh I'd been reading shotty as town, but at some point it becomes almost impossible to separate the mafia from the honorary mafia. Which is a big part of why I wanted to drag content out of our lurkers.

[mhsmith0]

smith are you scum?

No. I feel like I'm pretty obviously town too but ymmv I guess.

[mhsmith0]

I will admit to being surprised that people who've seen me before (touka saw both my wolf games here entirely, ranger saw me as town in open 635 and was ic in my newbie wolf game, though she died before I subbed in) can't seem to tell the difference.

[mhsmith0]

I think rangers been lying to the thread, touka should ABSOLUTELY know better than this, and alpaca and btd both seem like lurker scum. But only two of them at the most can actually be mafia, so *shrugs*.

[mhsmith0]

How am I in any way a lurker? The only real lurker in this entire game has been Alpaca.

Active lurking. For the most part, you haven't been advancing the game with your posts. Also, your votes have consistently been weak and wishy washy.

[mhsmith0]

Did town really just lynch my top townread again?
Ffs.

-- Mail

Nah shotty fake hammered.

[mhsmith0]

Well I guess we will have to see what everyone else has to say in twilight. Why did you think I was mafia again?

Your general mind set, plus the past two posts have helped.

What bugged you about my "general mindset"?

@drmy: I'd still like an answer to this one.

[mhsmith0]

Fair enough (I think).

[mhsmith0]

Technically you could make pretty much anything into any claim you wanted.

VOTE: IV

If you are scum (and scum would obviously claim Tree and/or breadcrumb Tree) then good. If you are really a Tree, Town hasn't lost much. You can still be an active scumhunter after death.

Hey BTD, why did you think that "scum would obviously claim Tree and/or breadcrumb Tree"? Often mafia tries to PR claim to draw out PR roles or buy survival for a day if no one counters; why did you presume the opposite as stated justification for your hammer of IV?

Also, how confident were you that IV was an arsonist when you hammered? It's weird to re-read this vote and see you seemingly disclaiming responsibility for it (especially since it was the hammer) as you're making it. Was this truly a "screw it, if you're a tree no big loss" vote? Did you actually have a strong read on him at the time?

[mhsmith0]

Unless it is a Smith+Shotty scum team which wouldn't be that odd honestly.

Just for kicks, why do you think Smith+Shotty makes sense as a team?

[mhsmith0]

You die if you get lynched.

In a normal game, yes.
But this mechanic is basically a nerfed version of the shortnight/longnight mechanic.
In that I don't actually die.
I can still contribute.

And from my wagon, scumhunt.

If you're town, eating a lynch just because you're not feeling confident in your reads or so the town can "move on" or whatever is TERRIBLE play.

Why?

Again.

In a normal game, sure, that goes without saying.

But in this game. When you live on after being lynched. Why is it terrible play to get lynched? Just because it's not a lynch on scum? Sure, that makes it not the ideal play. Ideal play is always lynching scum. But the mechanic exists for good reason. Getting lynched is a viable play. Not optimal, but viable.

NO. You're missing the point in a drastic and fundamental manner. The lynch is what matters. Anything and everything that weakens the lynch and its meaning is

FUNDAMENTALLY ANTI-TOWN

.

Imagine a game in which everyone's votes are targeted towards finding and killing mafia. No secondary objectives, JUST THAT. i.e. a normal game of mafia.

Now look at this game. Here, you get garbage like BTD6's hammer vote where he basically says "eh, screw it, even if this is a mislynch, no big loss". How can you possibly figure out who is being sincere in their scum-hunting and who is just bullshitting when "even if we mislynch it's OK" becomes an acceptable vote rationale? The obvious answer is, you simply cannot.

An atmosphere of indifference towards the consequences of mislynching is completely terrible (and it's probably not a coincidence that the game state turned lurky and indifferent given the underlying "eh, if we mislynch it's ok" attitude). And, again, YOU started it. Others took that ball and ran with it. But YOU started it. It's anti-town, and it's manipulative. And you started that process. Is it possible you simply made a mistake? That you didn't bother to think through the consequences of the things you said? Sure. But it's far likelier that this was an intentional play to lull the board into a false sense of security and laziness.

that's basically OMGUS logic, dressed up a bit.

A scum player would say this, yes.
But a town player should be able to recognize that there's a difference between calling a player a scum for voting them (omgus) and calling a player scum for the way they voted. I did the latter. You're not scum because you're voting me. It could be any player you voted and I'd say the same thing. You're scum because you're not playing to anything even remotely resembling your towngame.

Except what you said was "You're writing a narrative that when examined falls apart"... and to back it up you focus on the argument that I've implied you didn't explain your read. But what I actually said was that your "100% sure" bit was a lie. And it was a lie, at the very least by the time the hammer came down. Was all of your push based on that? No. But that was a key part, and likely a key part of why people followed you. And you allowed that to happen, even though, according to your own recounting of events, you knew that the "100% sure" bit was no longer true. Why should I believe you? Why should your admitted choice to allow for a lynch to happen under false pretenses (especially with deadline being days away) NOT be considered a strong wolf tell?

Sure. And right now the most likely answer is that you're mafia pulling a ploy.

No, I mean the mhsmith that is town I know will post all angles, IN THREAD, on all players. All of them. And with a very low level of confidence, weakly select the ones he thinks are more likely to be true.
This blind push of near-absolute certainty from you? Absolutely not characteristic of your towngame.

wrt meta, I think you're describing my late-game LYLO/MYLO town game more than my town game as a whole. I certainly look for whatever angles I can find and think about, yes (and I believe I have been doing this). But the idea of "with a very low level of confidence, weakly select the ones he thinks are more likely to be true"... that's typically not my town game.
I'm also not sure why you are calling my push on you a "blind push of near-absolute certainty". I explicitly stated "I'd be fairly surprised if she were to flip town. Call it like 60% wolf odds. And I really don't see a better case right now." One of us has represented a read of "near-absolute certainty" to the board. And it's not me. Seems like a mis-rep in my book. Heck, even your quoted bit makes that point, "right now the most likely answer is that you're mafia pulling a ploy". How can you possibly interpret that language as being a "blind push of near-absolute certainty"?

wrt IV, the ESSENTIAL problem is that you yourself stated that you had a stronger read on M&M. So why not try and build the wagon there?

You keep on pushing this point, yet this continues to ignore what I already said. innocentvillager was a stronger scumread originally. Ergo, I pushed innocentvillager. When this stopped being true, I knew I was second-guessing myself, and through a combination of pride and stubbornness, refused to back down off of that paranoia.

And I continue to find that explanation non-credible. You represented to the board that you were "100%" certain on IV. That certainty helped drive IV's lynch. Now you represent that you weren't so certain after all, that you'd found his posts better, and that you were wavering. And yet, despite that wavering, you didn't unvote, you didn't open the floor to more conversation, you just held your vote. Pride? Stubborness? Maybe. But "comfortable with a nice and easy mislynch" works pretty well too, especially since three of the five final votes on IV (Alex, BTD, Kappy) had all voted you not too much prior.

"I hate scumreading a player and then backing down from it even more"

I misspoke; that sentence is incomplete. It was meant to say that I hate scumreading a player

correctly

and then backing down from it. This is obvious enough. When you're right about a read, but then through paranoia, doubt it enough to reverse it, how do YOU feel? Universally, the answer is "very bad". That's what I was referring to. As much as I hate being wrong, being

right

and then reversing my read to be wrong is much, much worse.

Sure. The very first game I played (on PlayDip), I had what basically amounted to a (accurate)tonal read on Harb (a very good player, especially as wolf), and basically let him talk me out of it. I felt like a total fool afterwards.
OTOH, good town play is to be uncertain, to be paranoid, to be questioning. If your read was seriously wavering, there's nothing wrong with unvoting, saying you need more time to think, taking the time to ask questions and refine your read, etc. But if you're mafia and just want to get that mislynch out of the way, then pushing that lynch and then only afterwards "confessing" to your very human doubt and questioning... that's seems like a pretty effective strategy, especially if you're trying to justify your part in the mislynch after it's too late to do anything about it.

And now that you're in a position where you're in actual danger of that "offer" getting cashed anyway, you're pushing elsewhere.

I don't see myself escaping the lynch. I do, however, intend to push you.
And if Music and Mail calls me terrible to be ignored after I flip, they're confirmed scum for it, especially since it's not them that I'm pushing. It's you.
I don't care if I live or die. I expect to die. I'd definitely die if a townread was in any danger of being lynched. But given the choice between contributing to my own lynch, or making a statement about my strong scumread...I'm going to go for the latter.

Cool. I expect you to die too. I still think you're the likeliest player here to be mafia. And I'm still pretty happy with my vote being right where it is.

Want to guess at what I hated about 134?

Nope! I'm looking forward to whatever reason you pose for hating it, and if you intend to lynch me, you WILL post it before I get lynched, because you're going to be held accountable for it and if you don't I swear to god I'll spam the thread until you are lynched.

Hey now, accountable is one of MY favorite words, you can't steal it!
I'll admit to being disapointed that no one seemed interested in figuring out for themselves what was wrong about 134, but so be it. Essentially, what's wrong with it is that it's a weak case that's heavily over-justified. Your case in 134, essentially:
1) M&M stated intent without hammering. That's wolfy for meta reasons.
2) 26 had a fake tone (not sure why that's fake other than a "RVS BS" sort of way though)
3) Empty posting wrt asking for an unvote (this point is actually a bit of something)
4) 72 was a waffle and possible awkward greeting
5) Meta read on RC's feelings in 97, 103
6) Meta read / paranoia on the L-1 unvote
Basically it's nearly 1,000 words that boils down to "I have a meta read on RC/Postie, and there's some mildly suspicious behavior I've noticed". This is over-justified as hell compared to the minor amount of actual evidence at hand.
Bonus points for the needless VT claim btw. That one's more icing on the cake though.

PS Alpaca's your #2 team read on gut alone?

Tied for number one (tiers are equal), but otherwise, correct.

I mean, you get why I'm not buying this, right?

Your read on Ranger feels opportunistic and your push on Alpacas reads as meh.
Also your slots past players probably all replaced out for a reason and the original owner of your slot made some pretty bad votes.
You are also defending M&M for what appears to be no reason.

This is all true.

It is? http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
KAAG made three votes. The first was RVS, the second was probably RVS (with maybe a LITTLE bit of substance to it), and the third was either RVS (inappropriately IMO, but his ISO basically proclaims pretty clearly "we're all still in RVS") or a transparent "sure let's see what happens" wagon hop. Which of these votes was "pretty bad"? Your +1 onto Touka suggests that you see multiple garbage votes there? So... two of the three? All three?
As for M&M, I have a town read on the slot. That seems like a decent reason to defend them.

You must be insanely confident in a smith/M&M mafia team then, since you're also in his top three.

I have no right to use the term insanely confident to describe my reads given D1.
Still, for lack of a better term: insanely confident on you, yes. Confident on M&M, no. They're a scumread, but it's mostly because "I don't have any better ideas and I'm reviewing my past read and thinking it might hold merit". Still, that Touka sees the two players on the bottom of my reads as scum, when I see them as scum, is a promising sign especially knowing it's beeboy behind the wheel.

Still "insanely confident"? Any wavering? It's no longer credible for you to claim that one AFTER a hammer comes down. Not that your stunt should have gotten you town credit the first time though.
...

And here's ranger taking that crappy read and considering a sheep of it.

No, that was because Touka was revealed to be beeboy.
I hold beeboy to basically the same standard I hold RadiantCowbells: the absolute top tier of scumhunters, the players I easily synch with when we share alignments, the players who I see as competent, and while never perfect, strong players with strong pushes.
And the beeboy of this game, as Touka, was playing in a really strange manner. Touka's play, as a person, looked town. Touka's play, knowing it was beeboy, looked strange.

Yeah, but that's not what you actually said, though, now is it?

VOTE: beeboy
just claimed scum

Quite possibly.

which was a response to

Oh I thought there was 2 firefighters.
Ignore me.

VOTE: beeboy
just claimed scum

You literally said that Touka might have "claimed scum". It's right there. It's explicit. This isn't "beeboy was playing off", this was "hey, drmy might have picked up on a slip". Even though that "slip" was nonsense.

[mhsmith0]

@alpaca, btd6: Ranger and I have now had a pretty lengthy back and forth. You two especially should look at this as a good chance to jump in and make your opinions known. What about the accusations thrown back and forth do you believe? What don't you believe? What strikes you as odd? What questions do you have that seem interesting to you? etc etc etc

Since my understanding is that you're both fairly new, this is a good chance to start to learn how to be good town. Good town engages in the issues on the board, makes their opinions heard, does what they can to move the game forward. Put yourselves out there, and trust that you will be able to help the game move forward, and that in the process we will be able to realize that you're town. And, of course, if you're not town, then this is still a good chance to start to learn how to fake it. Either way, you two should be weighing in on this stuff.

[mhsmith0]

Given the obscurity of his breadcrumb, I thought it wasn't too surprising for a scum IV to also hide an extremely subtle FF breadcrumb. Also, if we do not lynch someone we think COULD be Town (outside investigative PRs claiming) then we cannot lynch at all. I had a moderate/strong scumread at the time (roughly 70% sure),

and I thought that in this game, while lynching the most likely scum is good, a mislynch also does not hurt Town as much as in other games.

Trust me when I say, that thinking needs stop. Right here, right now. Mislynches are bad, and you NEVER want to mislynch. Mislynches happen, and they're part of the game, but you want to fight against them as much as you can. ALWAYS be looking for or fighting for the best lynch. If you fail to find it, or you fail to convince town, so be it. But a mislynch is a failure, and a damaging one at that. ALWAYS have the mindset of wanting the best lynch. Always. In every single town game you ever play. Part of the issue with this game is that it's a trap, where towns can fall into the mindset of mislynches not being THAT big of a deal, and then suddenly it's MYLO/LYLO, and then suddenly it's all over.

Well, unless you're mafia. Then it's different, of course

[mhsmith0]

1) mislynches do happen. But "even if you're mislynched it's ok" is terrible voting logic, much less hammering logic. Take responsibility for your votes and your reads. Don't ever vote while hedging it away as "well even if I screw this up no big deal". It's Wolfy to try and deflect responsibility for your actions. Were you not a newbie, it'd be pretty close to a scum claim. As it is, it's votable stuff.

2) voting someone, or allowing others to vote someone, based on false pretenses, cannot reasonably be acceptable. It's a scum tell. Votes, and the reasons behind them, are FUNDAMENTALLY your biggest alignment tells. If you make it ok for votes to be dishonest, you'll basically never catch Mafia. Fundamentally, Mafia are insincere and dishonest in their voting, as well as their reads, and their engagement with the game as a whole. This insincerity and dishonesty is how you catch them.

3) Shotty may well have been joking. But ranger appeared to take the joke seriously. Thats the point I'm making. Making a bad point is bad. Sheeping a bad point is worse. Screwup? It's possible. But at some point, "ranger is Mafia" simply becomes more likely than "wow ranger is playing a really strange and suspicious town game". If I got more from you and alpaca, and could develop a better read on you both, that'd be helpful to either confirm or cast into doubt my read. But as it is, ranger is my best read.

Ps note that I am NOT justifying this with "if ranger is town, no biggie, she can help us anyway". I think she's Mafia, therefore I'm voting for her. Worrying about stumping status should be a far secondary concern to any right thinking townie, compared to finding and lynching Mafia.

[mhsmith0]

Well I guess we will have to see what everyone else has to say in twilight. Why did you think I was mafia again?

^Not a town reaction to thinking he was hammered.

For the record, I happen to know mhsmith is vulnerable to believing this sort of thing, but he did basically nothing after the "hammer".

No attempt at final reads.
No attempt at scumhunting.
No "I was town".
No gambit of "I was scum" like innocentvillager.
Just something weak, like this.

Yeah, strange, it's almost like I was fully aware it was a fake hammer.

[mhsmith0]

Literally my reaction was

Ultimate lol hammer. Nice.

That's not the reaction of anyone of EITHER alignment who actually thought he was hammered.

[mhsmith0]

That's not the reaction of anyone of EITHER alignment who actually thought he was hammered.

New point, then.
You were aware you weren't being hammered.

I know, for a 100% fact, you are susceptible to believing fake-hammers.

So why weren't you also fooled this time?

Because I was actively engaged in this game, and was especially interested in a wagon that was forming on myself. Also, as a point of pride, I have NEVER been mislynched outside of a turbo game (this is easily verified on my wiki - the closest I came was getting tied for a deadline lynch after subbing into a slot under heavy fire in plague Mafia.. And rng spared me there). The idea that it might happen here kinda grabbed my attention.

[mhsmith0]

Can you walk through how m&m went from 95% wolf to just a symbolic vote that's explicitly stated as a "I don't want anyone to follow me here" sort of thing?

Simple. Touka came in and was revealed as beeboy, and the Touka-MM fight was not scum-scum yet I was doubting Touka.

What in particular about touka-mm convinced you it couldn't reasonably be w/w theater?

[mhsmith0]

What in particular about touka-mm convinced you it couldn't reasonably be w/w theater?

The idea of Touka bussing Music and Mail is absolutely laughable knowing Touka is beeboy.

Player history factors a lot into the reads.

You mean it's laughable that they'd get to the point of an actual lynch, or it's laughable they'd do theater and distancing? It's clear they don't like each other, but is the antipathy so deep as to make theater impossible?

[mhsmith0]

Anyway I'm going to bed. Night all.

Ps I really am serious when I say that outside engagement on the back and forth between me and ranger would be helpful. We've leveled a bunch of accusations at each other; people should be interested in this.

[mhsmith0]

when the mod only has to less posts than you something is wrong pacca

Roasted!

Not sure what my thoughts are on this.

Shotty is still definitely town
Kappy and Ranger likely town
mhsmith looking townie but maybe he's really good at being scum (never played w/before)
BTD is at null again for me
Music and Mail at null
Touka is looking scummish
Alpaca is still null

1) so why is ranger town for you? I've made my case, I think it's a pretty solid one, do you think the points I'm making are wrong, or do you think I'm missing something important?
2) feel free to skim the links in my wiki, it's a pretty open book if you're curious.

[mhsmith0]

Technically you could make pretty much anything into any claim you wanted.

VOTE: IV

If you are scum (and scum would obviously claim Tree and/or breadcrumb Tree) then good. If you are really a Tree, Town hasn't lost much. You can still be an active scumhunter after death.

The basic issue is you hammered while essentially stating "I don't know if you're Mafia, it'd be cool if you were, but if not that's cool too". Obviously that wasn't all your justification, but it was part of it. And it's basically a deflection of responsibility for your vote, as you're making your vote. And the specific justification you made (vt claim being specifically suspicious) was highly questionable as well.

I'm unsure if it's truly AI for you because you're still pretty new, and it could simply be an error. But it's the sort of thing that, as either alignment, you should strike from your game. Hammers are a big deal. "I'm hammering but no biggie" is never something you want to effecfively be saying. Stating doubt is fine, but if that's your perspective, your message should be more like "This is truly my best guess, and I find reasons _____ compelling, and I'm sorry if I'm wrong". That is an ok message to send. What you'd said really wasn't. Which is part of why you're in my lynchable range.

[mhsmith0]

Nulltown: Kappy, InnocentVillager
Null: Alexcellent, Smv, KickAssAndGiggle, Shotty, Alpaca
Nullscum: Music And Mail

These are incredibly weak.

VOTE: InnocentVillager

All my reads are practically null. You are a miniscule townread but I believe pressure is the key to escaping RVS. The read is too weak to matter much.

Despite being a scum in Open 638 your reads were suspiciously accurate (scumreading both me and Masquerade together). Perhaps there is something more to your scum hunting.

I also scumread Music and Mail but it's a weak scumread. It's certainly better than voting a townread for virtually no pressure.

VOTE: Music and Mail

Ranger's overconfidence seems to come from a scum perspective. What I mean is that a scum already knows exactly who the scum are and thus may give stronger reads than their Town-self. These reads could be in either direction. A scum might strong scumread a Townie for a chance of an easy mislynch or may strong scumread a partner to avoid detection after the partner flips.

Ranger is my best scumread now. Still only weak-moderate but worth voting on.

VOTE: Ranger

This is now L-1

It puts enough pressure on Ranger now (some others still scumread her such as Alexcellent) so that she can't afford to give bad reasoning now or simply refuse to explain a read. Explaining anything benefits Town. We are in the dark. Scum already know who scum are.

VOTE: Music and Mail

I now weakly scumread Ranger. I thought that Ranger was much more likely scum if IV flips scum but IV has flipped Town. Music and Mail is now my strongest scumread.

Ranger, when you promised to get lynched was that some sort of gambit? What was your purpose?

IV, why did you claim scum? From what I can see it was to have a chance at catching out the scum that know you are Town.

VOTE: Ranger

Right now a Ranger lynch looks more viable than a M&M lynch. I don't scumread Ranger as strongly but I do think that a Ranger lynch is beneficial to Town. If Ranger is Town, she can still give all her reads tomorrow and help Town. If she is scum, then perfect.

Ranger was actually my weakest scum read out of {Ranger, Touka, Mhsmith, M&M}. The scumread was mainly due to her self-voting and "promise" to get lynched. Now I don't see that much reason to scumread her so I should vote another scumread.

VOTE: Mhsmith

Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage.

These are the rest of your votes. They are, by and large, poor votes. Little reasoning attached, bandwagoning fairly often (you were hammer on iv, l-1 on both me and ranger), and more disclaiming responsibility in 420, and basically saying "this is just pressure" in your l-1 ranger vote at 152 (the implication of that vote was that if ranger DID explain herself you'd hop off that wagon). What you're presenting with your voting history is that you are much more concerned with getting ANY lynch than you are with getting the RIGHT lynch. Which is pretty fundamentally a Mafia perspective.

So I'd like you to explain how you currently see the game. Who do you believe in the back and forth between me and ranger, and why? What has convinced you? Or do you think it's a town v town fight, or maybe wolf v wolf theater? Again, if so, why do you think it? I want to see evidence that you're engaged in trying to solve the games mystery, rather than just hoping to coast by and get through another lynch without too much scrutiny.

Ps from your 606, why do you "know that what Ranger did is a mistake"? Are you saying you "know" that she is town?

Pps

Ranger should have showed a steady read progression with IV slowly dropping from strong scum to medium scum to weak scum, but instead chose to lie.

isn't quite right. What ranger (if town) should have done was unvoted and taken the time to sort the slot out. Iv could have stayed her strongest read, but with enough doubt to take him off l-1. Or there could have been some specific readable moment that shot him up her reads list. There are a lot of legitimate ways to have approached that situation for town!ranger. My problem is, she didn't choose any of them.

[mhsmith0]

On a different note... @mm, drmy and touka: I'm starting to wonder if ranger has more or less spewed alpaca town (i.e. she wouldn't have naked read him town on "gut" alone if she was his buddy, and if she actually was town, then what boils down to a "soul read" may be legitimate). I don't know Rangers wolf meta well enough to know if she'd ever dump a partner at the top of a reads lost for explicitly no real reason like that. How familiar are you two w her meta? Is that something she'd do in this situation?

[mhsmith0]

In my opinion you and Ranger are likely Town vs scum. A scum theatre would seem like too much WIFOM and speculation at the moment. It is still a possibility though. I scumread you both so I think Town vs Town is more unlikely, though it is possible if M&M flips scum. If not, chances are at least one of you is scum.

Why do you scum read me? Why do you scum read ranger?

[mhsmith0]

There are many things in the mhsmith wall I could respond to, but he's baiting me to fight him.
If someone asks outside of {mhsmith, Music and Mail}, I'll respond, otherwise, no, not entering a wall war.

Btd, what do you think of htis specifically? What questions of ranger or me do YOU want answered?
That also applies to the rest of the board too. Surely there is SOMETHING in our back and forth that catches people's eyes and is worthy of additional discussion.

[mhsmith0]

Edit: btd had made a couple notes on my wall post yesterday. But I want to see more from him, and more from the rest as well.

[mhsmith0]

sorry to see you go touka

[mhsmith0]

I think Beeboy really doesn't like playing w rc. Not sure it's AI. Also I'm drunk and at poker night.

[mhsmith0]

Probably beeboy wanted to see how a game would go a an alt. and then he slipped. Sorry to see u go rc

[mhsmith0]

Lol qj just sucked out a str8 against aa. Poker.

[mhsmith0]

Ya I don't like playing with RC much either sometimes. RC has a tendency to throw elbows if you know what I mean. It can be fun, but RC has a way of just getting to people sometimes.

I agree. RC just says "you're scum" or something along those lines, never with justification, and commonly wron, which has led to my "perpetual scumread" on him. Every time I see RC, I know he's going to be as stubborn as always and detrimental to Town.

Are you saying that your m&m read early in the game was just a play style read? Nothing particular to this game, just an "rc is playing, he must be Mafia" sort of thing?

[mhsmith0]

UNVOTE: Ranger

Pending what we see from all the replacements. Still my top read, but I'm not going to sit on that vote with three new players coming in.

[mhsmith0]

And why were you scum reading me and ranger again? I'm curious why your opinion of our back and forth seems to essentially be "well one of them must be lying, no strong opinion on which one, so let's lunch them both in either order"

[mhsmith0]

Ranger would you care to elaborate on why you think I'm town for my RVS vote in post 28.

I could easily!
I'm choosing not to. It's a non-issue. Unless you're at risk of being lynched, it's simply not something I need to spend my time on.
...

I don't really accept "I don't feel like it/will take too much time" as a good reason to not cooperate on her reads.

Well, tough.

Even if it's kind of flimsy or meh reasoning, surely it's not that hard?

Of course it's not that hard. I can explain any read on the drop of a hat to at least an adequate level most of the time. In fact, explaining the Alpaca townread would be ridiculously easy.

But when I say I don't feel like explaining.

I mean I don't feel like explaining, and no amount of pushing me to explain will change my mood.
...

Alpaca at this point is purely gut.

Walk me through that Alpaca town read you say you have. You'd stated pretty explicitly early on that there were tangible reasons for it, and you were simply choosing not to explain it. Now it's "purely gut". What changed? Did something cause those earlier reasons to disappear?

[mhsmith0]

So what do you claim?

I am going to go ahead and claim ha u scumfuck rolefisher, cause obviously playing as claimed is easier for town to win. With that I am going to start this game and: VOTE: innocentvillager
He just rubs me the wrong way.

^So basically, he claimed scum.

Ranger, what did you mean by "he claimed scum" here? Did you think that the idea he'd joke around in RVS wouldn't be credible?

[mhsmith0]

Can you talk about your BTD6 town read? They've made two L-1 votes and one hammer vote, and precisely zero of those three votes seem supported by meaningful reasons (maybe with the exception of the L-1 vote on you on day one), or represent a process of BTD taking ownership of those votes. What are you seeing there that makes you think town? Because it looks to me like pretty shameless bandwagoning as opposed to any actual attempt to game solve.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler: current vca

Day One

M&M wagon high point
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (1) drmyshottyizsik
mhsmith0 - (1)

innocentvillager

Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Ranger - (1) Music and Mail
Not Voting - (2) Kappy, Touka

Ranger wagon reaches parity
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (1) drmyshottyizsik
Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Ranger - (3) Music and Mail,

innocentvillager

, Kappy
Not Voting - (1) Touka

Ranger wagon BRIEFLY hits L-1
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (1) drmyshottyizsik
Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Ranger - (4) Music and Mail,

innocentvillager

, Kappy, Touka
Not Voting - (0)

M&M unvotes, revotes
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (1) drmyshottyizsik
Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Ranger - (4)

innocentvillager

, Kappy, Touka, Music and Mail
Not Voting - (0)

Alex on IV, BTD6 on Ranger, IV on drmy
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (3) drmyshottyizsik, Ranger, Touka
Music and Mail - (1) mhsmith0
Ranger - (3) Kappy, Music and Mail, BTD6_maker
drmyshottyizsik - (1)

innocentvillager

Lynch
BTD6_maker – (2) AlpacaAlpaca, Music and Mail

innocentvillager

– (5) drmyshottyizsik, Ranger, Touka, Kappy, BTD6_maker
Music and Mail - (1) mhsmith0
drmyshottyizsik - (1)

innocentvillager

Day Two
M&M wagon high point
Touka - (1) Music and Mail
Music and Mail - (3) drmyshottyizsik, BTD6_maker, Touka
Not Voting - (4) AlpacaAlpaca, Kappy, mhsmith0, Ranger

Ranger wagon high point (L-1)
drmyshottyizsik - (2) Music and Mail, drmyshottyizsik
Music and Mail - (1) Touka,
Ranger - (4) Kappy, Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Not Voting - (1) AlpacaAlpaca

mhs counter-wagon high point (L-1)
Ranger - (2) Kappy, mhsmith0
AlpacaAlpaca - (1) Music and Mail
mhsmith0 - (4) Ranger, Touka, drmyshottyizsik, BTD6_maker
Not Voting - (1) AlpacaAlpaca

current state
Ranger - (2) Kappy, drmyshottyizsik
AlpacaAlpaca - (1) Music and Mail
mhsmith0 - (3) Ranger, Touka, BTD6_maker
Not Voting - (2) AlpacaAlpaca, mhsmith0

Especially important votes:
Day One
126 - Alex puts Ranger at L-1
127 - M&M moves Ranger off L-1
135 - M&M puts Ranger back to L-1
137 - Alex moves Ranger off L-1
152 - BTD6 puts Ranger back at L-1
186 - Kappy puts IV at L-1
211 - BTD6 hammers IV
Day Two
473 - I put Ranger at L-1
482 - Ranger takes herself off L-1
570 - BTD6 puts me at L-1
586 - drmy takes me off L-1

Notes/thoughts:
BTD6 has been bandwagoning like CRAZY so far this game. They've made a LOT of really important votes, basically none of which were justified in any meaningful sense. Two L-1 votes, AND one hammer vote, and he has NEVER taken the time to own those votes or the reasoning behind them. That's pretty terrible. Consider:

L-1 on Ranger: puts in some reasoning (more than any other vote fwiw), hedges like crazy with "Still only weak-moderate but worth voting on" and "It puts enough pressure on Ranger now"

Hammer on IV: the expressed reason is that he thought it was an IV/Ranger team (in previous posts), and that the VT claim was meaningfully scum-indicative (which is transparent nonsense). Also hedges like crazy with "If you are really a Tree, Town hasn't lost much. You can still be an active scumhunter after death."

L-1 on me: Hedges with "Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage." Once again, they're casting a super important vote, but the substance behind it is just wishy-washy crap.

Also, looking through his ISO, he basically never has a meaningful opinion, he basically never is asking questions of people (much less interesting ones), and there's no evidence anywhere that he wants to solve the puzzle of the game. He has about 60 posts, and I can't find 10 that are meaningfully game-solving. That's pretty much active lurking right there.

Also, I still have no idea how anyone town-aligned could possible look at the lengthy back and forth between me and Ranger and have no opinion beyond "it's probably v/w, no real idea which one, let's just lynch them both". There are substantive accusations (going both directions), that practically beg for an actual opinion on them, and essentially just shrugging at and saying "eh whatever lets just lynch them both in whatever order" is, to me, not a credible reaction.

Overall: VCA given the lack of flips other than IV seems to point to BTD6 as the most suspicious pattern. OTOH, I still really don't like what I've seen from Ranger so far. I think my lynch pool is {BTD6, Ranger} but want to see what the subs have to say at this point.

[mhsmith0]

Can you talk about your BTD6 town read?

Already did. I don't feel he's scum (gut), and his end of D1 antics suggest town. It is not, however, something I'd bet the game on.

Beyond the EOD1 antics, do you think they've been game-solving in any meaningful way? I find it odd how devoid of menaingful content their ISO is, especially given their bandwagoning.

Actually, bandwagoning seems to be a bit of a tell from them (although it's a very limited sample size). In open 638, skimming mod posts ( http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p7909566 ) it seems like they bandwagoned a fair amount D1 (before getting lynched); in their two town newbie games

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7845419
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7911269
not so much

since you're the one here with meta on them, does that line up with your impression of them from your open game w them?

[mhsmith0]

Hmm. Re-reading the EOD1 stuff...

1) The sheer celebratory tone of Kappy/drmy I think sticks out quite a bit in what is a think a pretty believable tone for them. I don't have meta with either, but I'd think that tone in that situation is really hard to fake if they were mafia.

2) Where did the town read for BTD6 in that segment come from? Their posts:
213 pretty dry response to your "scum claim"
214 same
221 basic night action strategy discussion
223 basic night action strategy discussion
225 not a super meaningful response
247 slaps on a "Ranger is tied to IV" read, which is possible for either town or mafia to do
249 completely ignores kappy's point about "gee, how could Ranger have KNOWN that IV was a wolf"
251 doubles down on the irrelevant part of the discussion

I'm not sure how this particularly screams out that BTD6 was town, to be honest.
@Ranger: you'd said that you also had a town read from this on BTD6 (282); what in that set of postings gave you a reasonably confident read on him, and why?

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler: current vca

Day One
...
Hammer on IV: the expressed reason is that he thought it was an IV/Ranger team (in previous posts), and that the VT claim was meaningfully scum-indicative (which is transparent nonsense). Also hedges like crazy with "If you are really a Tree, Town hasn't lost much. You can still be an active scumhunter after death."

The VT claim was intended to rule out the possibility that I am lynching a Firefighter. The comment was just an add-on. Also, I was mentioning that if he is a Tree, Town doesn't lose much. That was not in any way my entire justification. My justification was because he was my strongest scumread.

But that's not what you said, now is it? You SAID that your reasons for reading IV as an arsonist were:
- IV/Ranger team
- VT claim is scum-indicative
So you said that the VT claim was NOT just there to rule out a firefighter lynch, but rather was an active reason for the read. And

My justification was because he was my strongest scumread

is completely ridiculous. WHY was he your "strongest scumread"? One of your two reasons was transparent nonsense (at worst the "tree" claim was null, and in general was likelier to come from town, since mafia is incentivized to fake claim to either delay the lynch or to draw out the actual PR). And the other was mediocre. And yet you thought (or are representing that you thought) that this all added up to enough substance to justify a hammer.
And yes, it is absolutely true that hedging is bad, and hedging as part of your actual vote (especially when a hammer vote) is really bad. This is simply true.
Now, you can continue to argue against something I haven't said (the "That was not in any way my entire justification" bit), or you could meet the case against you head-on. If you're town, you should meet it head-on.

L-1 on me: Hedges with "Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage." Once again, they're casting a super important vote, but the substance behind it is just wishy-washy crap.

Yet again, you are someone I am scumreading. I am willing to lynch any of my scumreads.

But that's meaningless. WHY am I being read this way? Empty reads are just as empty as empty votes. You consistently aren't providing substance behind your read. Without substance, the read is nothing.

Also, looking through his ISO, he basically never has a meaningful opinion, he basically never is asking questions of people (much less interesting ones), and there's no evidence anywhere that he wants to solve the puzzle of the game. He has about 60 posts, and I can't find 10 that are meaningfully game-solving. That's pretty much active lurking right there.

Aren't reads a meaningful opinion? I gave my opinion on IV, Ranger, M&M, and now you. How is this not meaningful?

Again, empty reads are just as empty as empty votes. You consistently aren't providing substance behind your read. Without substance, the read is nothing.

Also, I still have no idea how anyone town-aligned could possible look at the lengthy back and forth between me and Ranger and have no opinion beyond "it's probably v/w, no real idea which one, let's just lynch them both". There are substantive accusations (going both directions), that practically beg for an actual opinion on them, and essentially just shrugging at and saying "eh whatever lets just lynch them both in whatever order" is, to me, not a credible reaction.

I am trying to build a case on you. Expect it some time today.

Late D2 is pretty late to finally get around to making a case on someone, all the more so since it's mainly in response to pressure on your slot. But sure, make your case. We're waiting on multiple subs. We have time.

How many times have I made it clear that I was lynching the person most likely to be an Arsonist? A lynch on an Arsonist is great, a lynch on a Tree is slightly bad, and a lynch on a Firefighter is really bad. I am not advocating lynching people who are 100% guaranteed to be Trees. I am advocating lynching the person most likely to be an Arsonist, while acknowledging that they could still be a Tree.
Again, why do we ask for claims before hammering? It's because lynching a PR is worse than lynching a VT. We try to minimise damage done by a mislynch. However, the primary objective is to minimise the probability of a mislynch by lynching the most likely scum. I did both.

But again, that's not what you said. You said at the time that the tree claim was itself scum-indicative (which was nonsense). Your actual hammer vote was, in your own words, due to:
- possible connections between IV and Ranger (the only semi-valid reason you gave, which was in the posts before the hammer)
- the tree claim was explicitly scum-indicative (nonsense)
- hey, lynching a tree really isn't all that bad (hedging)

To quote twc...

I have made this point elsewhere often and I shall make it here. If all you have is anti-town behaviours then lynch on those if you must but sadly most anti-town behaviours are town indicative. Upto and including - so it turned out - Petunia's d2 behaviours. This - in my opinion - is what Palin was lynched on and was the basis of all the grief Ugluk took. They did something(s) you did not like and were unapologetic about it. Only a ballsy scum does that. They exist, but rarely. Ugluk to be fair might be one of them. But scum live more usually in the null-space. They are in the corner of your eye on the edges of awareness until suddenly you realise...in time? or too late?

Lynch on pro-scum indicative behaviours - active lurking, hedging, politicking, weird votes or switches in logic, incongruencies in positions held/advocated and actions taken - things they are doing to stay in the null space.

Palin just had a daft idea and didn't care what you thought about it.

What you are doing in this game is looking to stay in the null space. You've consistently been active lurking, you've hedged (multiple of your votes were actively hedging, you hedged in your "one of ranger/mhs is scum but I can't be bothered to decide which" read), you've made bandwagony votes (rarely if ever with any kind of menaingful justification), etc.

What worries me here is that you're apparently pretty new and this may somehow be within your town game range. But it shouldn't. The stuff you have done should be inside NO ONE's town range.

PS I'm still deciding between BTD and Ranger. I also want to see what the new subs have to say. Not throwing down a vote just yet.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: btd ^6^ scum post

p-edit
Kappy
s point may be weak but look at BTD's reaction

You mean the defensiveness of it or something else?

[mhsmith0]

The way he says I/m lynching comes off like he has a say in who dies and he is directly killing people.

I'm not sure I follow. In that case he was the hammer so he actually was the one killing IV.

[mhsmith0]

Mhsmith, I did think an IV/Ranger team was likely, and I found both of them scummy by themselves. The Tree claim was just a weak comment but I would not have hammered a claimed Firefighter. Also, in my experience, scum have never claimed a PR. You are assuming that small comments I make are the whole reason for the hammer, which is false. I don't see why you think pointing out the flaws in your reasoning is scummy.

1) I have assumed that your stated reasons were in fact your reasons for the hammer. According to your own words, your reasons for reading IV as an arsonist were:
- IV/Ranger team
- VT claim is scum-indicative
If you had other reasons for thinking IV was an arsonist, then it was incumbent upon you to present those reasons (ideally in a way that lets the board vet and discuss these reasons). When you say

You are assuming that small comments I make are the whole reason for the hammer, which is false.

I have no idea what you're even getting at. I am clearly NOT assuming that your "well if it's a tree no big loss" was your "whole reason for the hammer", if that's what you're trying to imply. If you mean something else, you need to actually state it.

2) Pointing out actual flaws in my reasoning isn't scummy. Pointing out imaginary flaws in my reasoning, however, is. It seems like you're defending against an argument I wasn't making, specifically with

The comment was just an add-on. Also, I was mentioning that if he is a Tree, Town doesn't lose much. That was not in any way my entire justification.

since i did not in any way state or imply that it WAS your entire justification. I stated it was hedging, and your hedging was alignment-indicative. I ALSO stated that your actual stated reasons for wolf-reading IV were weak or bogus.

3)

Also, in my experience, scum have never claimed a PR

If this is true, then you need more experience. IMO wolves will claim VT when:
- they think that claiming VT will seem honest enough to delay the lynch (this can be useful when there are dueling wagons, or they think the case/momentum against them isn't actually very strong)
- the PR's are already outed, or they know that a PR claim wouldn't be believed (i.e. they hadn't played in a way that resembles a PR claim they could make)
etc.

OTOH, they'll claim PR when:
- they know they're going to get lynched barring something drastic
- they think they can draw out the actual PR so if nothing else the NK can be productive
etc.

IN GENERAL, a VT claim is town-indicative. Sometimes the case against that slot is strong enough to push through anyway, and sometimes it's simply important to protect the PR against exposure, so you don't want to force too many claims. But the idea that a VT claim was itself wolf-indicative was silly at best and much more likely to simply be dishonest. And lynching people for dishonest reasons is itself wolf-indicative.

[mhsmith0]

Again, either bussing or lining up a mislynch.

I know RC did this with Huntress in my Newbie 1700 game and I picked up on it

, so again I was inclined to scumread you.

Citations please. I just skimmed
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
and I don't see the analogue for "if I get lynched today, lynch this slot tomorrow" as either bussing or lining up a mislynch by RC.

[mhsmith0]

Post 166 from that game:

Voting me isn't going to make me any less reluctant to explain my reads.

Why are you so reluctant anyway? Surely explaining reads and giving information is pro-Town.

It's clear that this discussion on whether or not Thatguy is cop doesn't seem like it's going anywhere. The last page was pretty much solely about my cop read. Focusing on that to the point of almost ignoring all else definitely can't benefit Town.

Otherwise, I have two moderate scum reads: RC and Huntress.

Question: do you think that I speedvoted my partner off the bat?
Do you think that if I was intending to bus Huntress as you seem to be implying that we wouldn't have come into the day with a plan to get her lynched efficiently with me leading?

If that's not the case, you should vote Huntress who might actually be scum.
And hell, if you think we're bussing? help me bus.

In that game:
RC was actively attacking Huntress in that game, and was basically arguing "whether you think I'm bussing or just town attacking Huntress, either way you should vote Huntress"

In this game:
IV was attacking Ranger's specific assertion of a "100% scumread", specifically with the idea that if Ranger was THAT sure of IV being mafia, then surely she'd be willing to get the rope herself if she was wrong.

How in the world do you think those two posts/situations are comparable? This makes me think that you're just flat-out making stuff up now.


Also...

You try to say that Ranger cannot have such strong scum reads at this point. I agree with you but what I saw was you trying to do the same thing to Ranger. I thought this could be scum bussing and it could be you forcing a mislynch, but either way it seemed scum motivated and was part of my scumread.

This is a non-sensical read of IV's post. He didn't say it was wrong for Ranger to have a strong scum read, he said it was wrong for Ranger to have a "100%" read. Twisting that into it being wrong to have a strong scum read at all is ridiculous. I have a seriously difficult time believing that you actually believed that from reading IV's post.


Also...

I thought there was something between you two. How would Ranger go from top scum to top Town? I thought you are likely bussing (and backing down when the pressure is too intense) or not wanting to take responsibility for a mislynch.

IV never actually said Ranger was "top town". What he ACTUALLY said was

Back to Ranger, I am starting to think that maybe she is just egotistical town

But even if he had said what you thought he said (and again, it was super obvious that he didn't), he presented a thought process and reasoning that was CLEARLY plausible for thinking that Ranger, if mafia, wouldn't have wanted to so blatantly and prominently drive a mislynch.

[mhsmith0]

@BTD why do you think that Smith is scum?

I have a dream that someday BTD will answer my question

Small town points to Alpaca for the snarkiness here. He can go back to my null zone.

{drmy, kappy}
{M&M}
{Alpaca}
{touka}
{BTD, Ranger}

[mhsmith0]

edit on 684: IV actually did say "I can only conclude that Ranger is egotistical town." (on the post after I looked at) Doesn't make her IV's top town read (necessarily), but even if it did, the rest of the point still applies. That's a credible and plausible read of the situation.

[mhsmith0]

...

In that game:
RC was actively attacking Huntress in that game, and was basically arguing "whether you think I'm bussing or just town attacking Huntress, either way you should vote Huntress"

In this game:
IV was attacking Ranger's specific assertion of a "100% scumread", specifically with the idea that if Ranger was THAT sure of IV being mafia, then surely she'd be willing to get the rope herself if she was wrong.

How in the world do you think those two posts/situations are comparable? This makes me think that you're just flat-out making stuff up now.

They are not the same. I said I found them similar. In both cases the two most likely possibilities in my opinion were bussing and pushing the mislynch wagon. This is what I saw.

How are they even similar? A is pushing on B, you think A is mafia, therefore it's bussing or pushing a mislynch wagon? Like, that's the entire similarity, right? Because if that's it, that's an incredibly over-simplistic view of it. The basic nature of the push was extremely different in both cases (see above). This is simply terrible reasoning, and I really struggle to see how you could actually think this.

If there is more to the comparison than "A is pushing on B, you think A is mafia", then you need to actually spell it out, because right now it just looks like you made the whole thing up.

Also...

You try to say that Ranger cannot have such strong scum reads at this point. I agree with you but what I saw was you trying to do the same thing to Ranger. I thought this could be scum bussing and it could be you forcing a mislynch, but either way it seemed scum motivated and was part of my scumread.

This is a non-sensical read of IV's post. He didn't say it was wrong for Ranger to have a strong scum read, he said it was wrong for Ranger to have a "100%" read. Twisting that into it being wrong to have a strong scum read at all is ridiculous. I have a seriously difficult time believing that you actually believed that from reading IV's post.

By "strong" I meant this strong (approaching 100%). I didn't mean ordinary strong reads.

Citations needed. I do not see where IV EVER said or implied that Ranger was "approaching 100%" or the like. Top read and LOCK WOLF are nowhere near the same thing. IV even explicitly calls out (what he saw as) the ridiculousness of a near 100% read in 138 (and subsequent posts).

How in the world can you reasonably interpret that as IV himself being near 100% on Ranger? When he so very clearly is strongly against the idea of "100%" reads?

The closest would MAYBE be in 142, where IV basically demands a Ranger lynch if IV gets lynched D1. But that can't possibly be "setting up mislynches" since if IV was himself flipped mafia, then clearly it wouldn't work.

This logic doesn't hold together.

Also...

I thought there was something between you two. How would Ranger go from top scum to top Town? I thought you are likely bussing (and backing down when the pressure is too intense) or not wanting to take responsibility for a mislynch.

IV never actually said Ranger was "top town". What he ACTUALLY said was

Back to Ranger, I am starting to think that maybe she is just egotistical town

edit on 684: IV actually did say "I can only conclude that Ranger is egotistical town." (on the post after I looked at) Doesn't make her IV's top town read (necessarily), but even if it did, the rest of the point still applies. That's a credible and plausible read of the situation.
But even if he had said what you thought he said (and again, it was super obvious that he didn't), he presented a thought process and reasoning that was CLEARLY plausible for thinking that Ranger, if mafia, wouldn't have wanted to so blatantly and prominently drive a mislynch.

"and I really just cannot see ANY scum motivation"
This is what I meant by Ranger becoming top Town. A scum can easily prominently drive a mislynch by your logic and will be townread for it. It is somewhat plausible as a Town tell but going from top scum to strong Town is a bit extreme. It's not nearly a 99% Towntell or anything like that.

So your argument here is that IV's action was basically null then? "It could be town-indicative but then again maybe not"? And the IV/Ranger interaction was the ONLY non-ridiculous reason you came up with for the hammer, right? So your hammer reasons were:

- IV/Ranger interactions (which by what you just stated was at most slightly wolf-indicative for IV)
- transparently false and ridiculous theory about the tree claim being meaningfully wolf-indicative

Do I have you correct here? These were your reasons? Nothing else? Because you are seriously running out of chances to convince me that your hammer was anything other than bogus.

[mhsmith0]

@Ranger: I need to know what your current read of BTD is and why, including why you (IIRC) thought that his EOD antics were meaningfully town-indicative.

[mhsmith0]

Beyond the EOD1 antics, do you think they've been game-solving in any meaningful way? I find it odd how devoid of menaingful content their ISO is, especially given their bandwagoning.

It's hard to say for me.

I should have the meta experience to read BTD6, yeah, in theory, but in practice it's proving a lot more difficult.

What I CAN say is that I hate the wagon on BTD6 though.

Ok so what about it do you hate? And what was the source of your town read of btd's eod1?

BTD are you saying you literally could not understand town!innocentvillager motivation for my flip read on Ranger from scum to town? Sorry if I'm misrepping here.

I just said I found it scummy. I thought it maybe possible (but unlikely) if you were just Town, and if so you may be playing badly. That was at the time. Now, of course, my perspective is skewed by the fact that everyone knows you have flipped Town.

I think Mhsmith's confusion and bias possibly arises from the fact that he was never playing at a time when your alignment was uncertain.

That's a bit of a strange thing to say given that you're scum reading and voting me. "Confusion and bias" are traits of dumb/wrong town, not wolves.

[mhsmith0]

What I am saying is assuming that you are Town. If you are scum, then your argument is obviously scum-motivated. However, if you are Town (and my scumread on you is fairly strong) you are confbiased.

Well if I'm a wolf then I'm probably not conf!biased and am DEFINITELY not confused.

But in a world where we are both town, who are the wolves? And why? You've slapped down a bunch of unsupported reads all game, now it's time to see some backup. Or, if it's your town reads you feel better about, justify those instead.

[mhsmith0]

@BTD why do you think that Smith is scum?

I have a dream that someday BTD will answer my question

On the topic of explaining who scum is...

Yeah it sure would be nice if btd ever got around to explaining themselves and their reads...

[mhsmith0]

Ok so what about it do you hate?

It just feels like a bad wagon.

If you're actually town, and for real don't like the btd wagon, please give me something to work with. "Just feels" is a pretty non answer.

Or as I was told in a post game a while ago, literally about the exact same phrase...

Saying something "just feels" some way indicates that you want your audience to believe something, but you are unwilling / unable to back it up with a sound assessment.

People who are invested in learning more about other players spend a lot of time looking at things from different angles. Sure, they can have blind spots, but "just feels" is not acceptable to soneone making an effort to learn.

Since mafia already know the truth, they aren't able to make genuine discovery, only simulate it. "Just feels" is sometimes as far as they can get, because they are trying to spin doctor.

[mhsmith0]

I meta'd BTD and he gives a semi scummish vibe in his town games too.

Yeah it makes me a bit nervous too. It's one reason I haven't voted them yet. I still think ranger is probably the best lynch. Def. want to hear from the subs when they come in though.

[mhsmith0]

Walk me through how this specific reason makes sense. Also please walk me through how and why you thought btd's end of day one was meaningfully town indicative.

[mhsmith0]

Here are my current reads.

Weak-moderate Town: Kappy, Shotty, Alpaca
Null-weak scum: Touka's slot, Ranger
Moderate scum: Mhsmith, M&M's slot

Why on me, and why on m&m? Naked reads are still naked.

[mhsmith0]

Here are my current reads.

Weak-moderate Town: Kappy, Shotty, Alpaca
Null-weak scum: Touka's slot, Ranger
Moderate scum: Mhsmith, M&M's slot

Why on me, and why on m&m? Naked reads are still naked.

You should have been following my progression for M&M. Naked reads are still reads.

As for you, with every new post, you seem to get scummier.

This remains a non answer. What about my posts is scummy? Actual reasons, dude. Getting reasons from you shouldn't be like pulling teeth.

Ditto m&m. Yes, I see that you scum read them. What I don't see is WHY you did so. Reads without reasons are just noise.

[mhsmith0]

And for me? Despite my unending requests for backyp on your read on me? Hell, alpaca could be mafia and you've provided him the perfect target to bark at solely for your unwillingness to engage.

[mhsmith0]

Ya I don't like playing with RC much either sometimes. RC has a tendency to throw elbows if you know what I mean. It can be fun, but RC has a way of just getting to people sometimes.

I agree. RC just says "you're scum" or something along those lines, never with justification, and commonly wron, which has led to my "perpetual scumread" on him. Every time I see RC, I know he's going to be as stubborn as always and detrimental to Town.

This and similar quotes (ex 499) seems to be your read basis. Seems you're scum reading for a play style you don't like, as opposed to actual scum hunting. Am I wrong? If so, how? I see something of an actual read basis in 269 but it's both ancient and weak. What else do you have on that slot?

[mhsmith0]

Let me try it a different way: why should I believe you're town? What investment in game solving have you shown? Why should I believe you're not just a wolf who's active lurked and made a bs hammer on bs reasons?

[mhsmith0]

Hey Titus. Shouldn't you be replacing rc slot, since you're his alt?

[mhsmith0]

Basically, IV is stumped.

[mhsmith0]

@titus: what are your thoughts on the rest of the board? I agree btd looks terrible, but they also look pretty bad in their town games (per their wiki links), which makes me nervous that this may be a too easy mislynch of a player who will be just as useless stumped as they've been while alive.

Really interested in your thoughts on ranger in particular. She seems bs-y in a way that I don't think is normal for her town game (though I admit I don't have extensive meta on her). I'm also deeply suspicious of the whole self-voting stunt she pulled, as well as her push on the day 1 IV wagon (reading it through he seemed pretty likely town, although I'll admit that it may have been colored by knowing that he was already a town flip).

You also noted paranoia on m&m. Just general rc paranoia, or anything specific?

[mhsmith0]

In my opinion you and Ranger are likely Town vs scum. A scum theatre would seem like too much WIFOM and speculation at the moment. It is still a possibility though. I scumread you both so I think Town vs Town is more unlikely, though it is possible if M&M flips scum. If not, chances are at least one of you is scum.

Fwiw I find it absolutely fascinating that ranger took a similar "this is t/w" post from IV as a notable part of the justification for a (IMO ridiculous) "100%" scum read on day one (see 117, but from what I can tell, showed no interest in talking about it when it came from btd.

[mhsmith0]

Remind me why you're reading me as wolf again?

[mhsmith0]

Just so you're aware... If you're town, then backing up your reads is supposed to be easy, because they're real and you can put them up for public consumption and consideration. Proving that your reads are true and sincere is the best way to prove that you're town (as well as the best way to get people to join you on whatever wagon you want to push... And as town, you SHOULD have a wagon that you want to push).

Otoh, refusing to back up your reads is anti-town behavior that makes others think that your reads are simply fake, and that the reason you won't back them up is because you know that if you put your reasons out in public, people will know that you just made them up. If you're town, be open and up-front with your thoughts and reasonings. If you're not town, pretend to be doing this. The game is FAR more fun this way. As either alignment, to be honest. Also, by showing that you have nothing to hide (or doing a good job of simulating this presentation), you'll be much less likely to be lynched. And the game is more fun when you're not getting lynched.

[mhsmith0]

Vote count 1.4

Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, KickAssAndGiggle

This is not a town wagon.

(RangerVMusic is TvT, so you tell me which of the others are mafia).

1) why is it not a town wagon?
2) why is ranger town?

[mhsmith0]

Both Titus and TM have basically represented that they didn't know which slots they subbed into, which seems like it's either a clear town slip (if they really didn't notice/remember) or a fake out (if they're just faking it). Not sure which. Seems likelier to be a legit slip by Titus, since she was the first to do it, but it's plausible that this was a town slip by both slots.

[mhsmith0]

My point is that both of you seemed to not know which slots you yourselves subbed into (Titus scum reading Alex, you town reading m&m in the way u did in 756), which is he sort of carelessness that seems to generally be more town indicative (unless of course it's faked)

[mhsmith0]

Also, what about Rangers posts look town and/or how/why does rc arguing with ranger indicate town ranger?

[mhsmith0]

@tm:

1) why was Alex "scummy as hell"? I didn't understand your "he's so towny he's scum" bit, including what in particular he'd said to create that reaction. And what from touka / titus recovered it?
2) which posts are you referencing as making ranger looking good? First of the game? First while fighting w m&m? Something else? And do you have an opinion of her other than those early posts?

[mhsmith0]

@btd: I have a plane flight tomorrow, so sometime today would be appreciated.

[mhsmith0]

@tm:
1) I don't need "extremely detailed explanations", but I do need info on how you're reaching that conclusion. If you have a post or two in mind that gives you a "fake scum hunting" vibe, it'd be helpful to look at.

2) what about ranger is genuine sounding? Fypov, ranger spent d1 "scum hunting the wrong people, intentionally or not", since iv flipped green and you know your alignment. I personally found Rangers cases on both slots reachy and oversold compared to the merits, so if there's reason to think that was actually town!ranger, I'd really want to know why.

[mhsmith0]

And when ranger calls iv scum for the same tvs thing (see 117-120), that's non suspicious because _______? I mean, I can get behind the idea that Alex deserves extra wolf points there for sheeping the argument, but I still find ranger suspicious for advancing the case on those grounds, and per your stated Alex reasoning, I'm surprised you seem to disagree.

I do agree on your point on the wagon hopping. I tried to get touka to speak to that, don't think I got much useful there.

The last point is also poor on Alex, though there have been plenty of players showing that passive attitude towards the consequences of mislynches, and I'm not sure how he especially stood out in that regard.

[mhsmith0]

Do you think the IV wagon was righteous? IMO it had a pretty dirty feel to it, from Rangers oversold case to btd's crap hammer to IIRC questionable votes from the other three. I also read iv as very likely town (part of my town read on your slot on m&m is because of how many things they'd said that agreed w my read on the game state), and feel like town!ranger especially should have known better than to scum read him at all, much less than with a ridiculously high degree of confidence.

[mhsmith0]

smith sadly I think the real problem is not that it was a dirty lynch, but kind a lazy one.

which again would, I think, get to "who here should have known better?"

I also think that IV looked like a player putting real effort into engaging w the board and trying to game solve, and then a bit of a lazy/careless mis speak (the tvs thing) got twisted into some kind of scum slip.

I also suspect that Rangers hop onto IV was more motivated by "I'm in some danger and I'm not winning my fight w m&m" than it was a true read of IV. I think town!ranger makes more of an effort to get m&m lynched in that spot rather than wandering off onto IV for what read to me as pretty unconvincing reasons.

Not to mention the whole "yes you can lynch me for being wrong on IV" bit that suddenly turned into an OMGUS on me right as soon as there was an active and non lazy push on her (I.e. A push that might actually result in a lynch of her spot given that an actual case was being made and pushed). Like, normally I'd think the town response would be to be suspicious of anyone more or less just going along w the idea of a ranger lynch, as opposed to being suspicious of someone who votes her for an actual alignment read reason. The whole thing reads as manipulative to me, and I don't see the town reason for such manipulation.

Now, I'll admit I don't have all that much meta w her, but between her reputation as a good scum hunter and her (IMO) both incorrect and sketchy push on m&m/IV on day 1, and her incorrect and OMGUS-y push on me day two, at some point I feel pretty comfortable thinking that this probably just isn't town!ranger.

[mhsmith0]

Have you seen that from town!ranger before? Can you point me to a game that's a reasonably comparable example of this from her?

[mhsmith0]

Born to push you around
Better just stay down
You pull away, he hits the flesh
You hit the ground
Mouths so full of lies
Tend to black your eyes
Just keep them closed
Keep praying, just keep waiting
Waiting for the one
The

day

case that never comes
When you stand up and feel the warmth
But the sunshine never comes, no
No, the sunshine never comes

[mhsmith0]

On a different note...

@alpaca: any thoughts on the game state other than btd's continued inability to actually explain why he says he thinks I'm an arsonist? Other than a quick defense note, you haven't talked about anything else for the past week.

[mhsmith0]

Do you mean TM or Titus? TM took over m&m slot, Titus took over Alex/touka slot.

[mhsmith0]

Btd's ISO has been undeniably terrible, but how confident are people that they're actual scum instead of just mislynch bait? They seem to get quick lynched consistently regardless of alignment (and apparently have zero desire to fix their game to stop this from happening). And this format especially is punishing towards mislynches of non-productive mislynch bait types.

@btd: you're at L-1 and the board wants your blood. It is past time to start putting reasons behind ALL of your reads. If you're town, it is the only way you even have a chance to convince everyone else that your reads are genuine and coming from a town perspective. Naked reads and active lurking and scummy postings have gotten you to l-1. If you're town, you need to fix this. Or if you're an arsonist just self hammer and save us all the time and trouble.

Ps to clarify, no one needs massive highly detailed cases. But naked reads won't help you. You need to give people a window into your thinking so they can read and sort you. This is absolutely true if you're town... And if you're a wolf here, then at least you can give it a shot and try and learn from the experience.

[mhsmith0]

@btd: not just reasons for your read on me, reasons for ALL your reads. Your actual content has been sorely lacking compared to your post count. If you're town, you need to fix it.

Ps one new avenue to explore: the wagon on you. Of your voters, who are you suspicious of? Who are you NOT suspicious of? And why?

[mhsmith0]

Smith, this isnt a newbie game.

Quit coaching

if the only way to get sortable content from btd is to "coach" them (I.e. Explain super basic stuff like "you're supposed to provide reasons for things, especially when asked" and "naked reads are not useful content"), then that's what I'll do. If I'm to lynch them, I'd rather it be because their reasons are lies than because they don't provide reasons at all. If this is annoying to you, well, sorry.

[mhsmith0]

Ok can you go into your shotty, TM and Alex reads a bit more? What are you seeing from them that makes you think this?

[mhsmith0]

I was referring to this bring scum ranger lol open 627

Can you walk me through this a bit more? What specifically from that game looks like a parallel here?

[mhsmith0]

@ranger: some quick questions:

1) what are your thoughts on the btd wagon?

2) you've stated in the past that you don't play well as scum, and you just now stated you're not playing well here. Why should we believe that you're having a strangely off town game instead of just a poor scum game?

3) you've basically gone to a point of "I just don't know anymore". So at this point what DO you think you know, and why? One example is your prior town read of Alex/touka/Titus. Do you still have that slot as a strong town read? Why or why not?

[mhsmith0]

Ok so what about it do you hate?

It just feels like a bad wagon.

The issue is this is the same kind of non answer that I've been railing at btd about. And you are in no way a newbie. Where for BTD this simply may be a playstyle issue (it shouldn't be but it might be), I find it far more troubling from you. I'd like for you to engage with the game in a more meaningful manner so that if I'm actually wrong about you, I can figure that out.

[mhsmith0]

We are not no lynching. I will make sure of that if needed. I'd still prefer to go here
VOTE: ranger

[mhsmith0]

We have three days at least. I dont want to hammer btd at this time, but will do so to avoid a no lynch if needed. I'd also like to see what the shotty replacement has to say about things.

[mhsmith0]

@titus: since you're here, can you go into that open 627 comparison a bit more?

[mhsmith0]

What do you think of her "I'm playing terribly" bit? I can see this as a plausible mea culpa, but it could also be a "I'm playing poorly... As scum" bit or simply an AtE.

[mhsmith0]

Mod pulled deadline last time he was replacing, I'd guess same happens here. Or, we may just get a quick replacement (which dies happen sometimes).

Ps yes you caught me, truly an amazing catch. Even better, I'm also scum partners with every other slot that I wanted to wait on replacements with, I.e. Both Titus and you.

[mhsmith0]

TM is voting btd, see http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8072261
Btd at l-1, TM clearly wants a hammer at this point.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt btd, I'm also waiting on their case on me that's totally coming any day now. No interest in doing anything on that slot before then (unless we hit deadline first)

[mhsmith0]

Theres alot more I want to do today, but with everyone V/LA, I think I want a flip.

So fuck it:

VOTE: BTD

L-1

Why do you actually scumread me?

That said, the above post may be the funniest of the game. Btd of all people has no right to bitch about people not providing reasons.

[mhsmith0]

Basically a derp clear? Or more than that?

[mhsmith0]

I'll look through Btd's stuff more later but for now...

Your comment on it though again seems a little like you know Ranger is Town and are looking for a lynch on her.

Explain how you arrive at this conclusion instead of the more obvious "I think ranger is mafia and am looking for a lynch on her". If there is something specific that suggests I KNOW that ranger is town, you should be able to zero in on what that is and why it suggests that. Otherwise it looks like speculation at best and a made up conclusion/accusation more likely.

[mhsmith0]

Ps as far s the "ranger couldn't have done this as Mafia" attitude I was talking about, see iv's http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7978305
For an example of this. If this was a process designed to WIFOM and confuse townies in order to deflect responsibility from a BADLY oversold lynch case, then it seems to have worked on IV.

[mhsmith0]

Doesn't clear it up at all. You said that my comment suggested specifically that I KNEW she was town. Not that I looked scummy or whatever, but that I had specific knowledge as to her alignment, and that my comment in particular implied this. You seem to be back tracking now from your original assertion. Why is this?

[mhsmith0]

You said that the specific comment suggested this to be the case. Again, how did it suggest this?

[mhsmith0]

Here's an example of the logical flow I'm looking for, applied to this situation.

Your continued unwillingness to clarify what in my comment "seems a little like

know Ranger is Town" itself seems like you're unable to do so, because that interpretation was fake. If that interpretation itself was fake, it seems like you did that because you're an arsonist, simply making up a case.

Do you see why our conversation leads me to this conclusion? Do you see how I am attempting to hold you accountable for the things you are saying (and in turn putting my thoughts into thread in a clear enough manner that others can hold me accountable for what I'm saying myself)? I've said this before in other games (ex: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7739215 - as it turned out, YA was mafia in that game), and I'll just quote at this point:

the keyword here is

ACCOUNTABLE

. An atmosphere where people are accountable for their posts, their reads, their votes, and anything else is ultimately pro-town. Creating that atmosphere is hard. But that's what I am trying to achieve. And it's what everyone else should be trying to do too

I'm trying to create an atmosphere of accountability. You're pushing against this, and only playing along with it when forced to do so. That's suspicious. Your case (so far) has already (seemingly) had one made-up component to it, which again is suspicious. You're not quite at the point where I'm willing to hammer you, but if you're actually town, you're doing a terrible job of demonstrating it. If you're town, you need to step it up, and prove to the board that your reads are actually real. If you're not town, then keep it up.

[mhsmith0]

@IV: that only applies if BTD's reads are genuine and founded on actual reasons. If BTD's reads are bullshit, and are founded on nothing, then explaining them in more detail will probably just result in further screwups. My concern is that BTD may simply be mislynch bait, and I'm trying to get better info to figure out whether I'm looking at mislynch bait or actual mafia. I admit I'm not all that good at telling the difference.

[mhsmith0]

^edit: "that" referring to "all BTD needs to do is follow smith's coaching suggestions to be appear townie again."

[mhsmith0]

By looking like "the reasonable one" or the like, presumably.

My response would be that I'm actively trying to determine Btd's alignment, and if "coaching" is what it takes to get the info I need then so be it.

Ps alpaca, where's your head space at lately? Both wrt btd and everyone else?

[mhsmith0]

I dunno but alpaca is leaning town on IV

Normally I'd talk about possible derp clearing but this specific one could just be a sign of made up reads.

Ps @alpaca: leading a ml for good reasons >>> leading one for bad raesons. The idea is to figure out if it was just a screwup, or if it was active wolfing.

[mhsmith0]

@btd...
1) sarcasm isn't wolfy

2) I was suggesting ranger was taking advantage of this setup to breed apathy. I don't think there was any meta component to that point; what posts suggested there was?

3) quote mining (if you mean citing quotes for evidence) is normal. Misrepping is not. Where and how did I misrep? Or are you seriously suggesting that my SARCASM itself implies a meta read if her? How would that even work?

4) breeding apathy towards mislynches is flagrantly anti town, and is wolfy other than by village idiots. Ranger is not a VI. I also highly doubt this is part of her normal meta, especially her town meta (i haven't researched it, I simply think it'd be dumb).

[mhsmith0]

1 I think you need to be careful about how you read into things if this is actually your honest process.

2 I had an existing wolf read on ranger, saw a specific behavior as wolfy, and my comment connected the two after seeing ranger was guilty of it. Thinking that's a meta read is super weird; I feel like what I meant was obvious.

3) I'll go back and look.

4) THE POINT is that breeding apathy is anti town, and as soon as crap like "well u can still scum hunt" becomes acceptable voting rationalization, then scum hunting is near impossible, because it's easy for wolves to hide their insincerity. Votes should always have reasons, those reasons should be aligned towards finding wolves, and through that process, sincere townies and insincere wolves can be found. Mafia 101.

[mhsmith0]

1/2 that's still a really bizarre interpretation. I'm skeptical it was real, but I'll at least mull it over.

4 the issue is that "oh it's OK if we mislynch, they can still help us" is an anti-town attitude to spread, and I'm pretty sure Ranger knows this. Could it (as referenced in 466) have been a mistake or careless wording or not thinking things through or one of those "I'm town so I'll just say whatever off the top of my head" moments? Sure. But Ranger's pretty competent, and I'm more inclined to believe it to be a deliberate thing than a mistake. Smoking gun? No. A reasonable part of the case? Yes.

PS

It's clear that if you are Town I am interpreting things differently than you.

If you're town I'd say this is very clear.

[mhsmith0]

Some other notes on your 852...

1) Given that what you cited criticized Ranger both for the "100%" bit on IV (which you apparently agree was bad given your comment) and the self-vote, I'm not sure why you'd think the self-vote by itself made it "an easy wagon to jump on". Self-voting is anti-town behavior, that town!Ranger absolutely should know better than (among other things, it's explicit in the IC guidelines http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... _a_good_IC ). So, again, I'm highly skeptical that this is just town!Ranger screwing up.

2) Notably, before i subbed in, the game had largely petered out, and while Ranger was the largest wagon (see 459, there wasn't any real momentum or push behind it. M&M had moved on to a vote whip on Alpaca (451), IV was complaining about the lack of life in the thread (450), etc. So despite her self-voting stunt, at the time I subbed in, Ranger wasn't in serious danger of getting lynched (even more so given that shotty town read Ranger (possibly for this?) at 427). So if the idea behind the self-voting stunt was to derail any potential "lynch Ranger" momentum and make the town lazy and/or confused, honestly it seems to have worked.

[mhsmith0]

Alpaca, explain your leaning townread on me? You tried to refute some of my posts, yet you call me town, why?

Sorry just a joke, I like to make some bad jokes every now and than and see how many people read it and get it but sometimes they get taken seriously.

A good way to be excused for a "joke" is to produce enough content to make the "joke" stand out.

A bad way to be excused for a "joke" is to bury it in the middle of what looks like your attempt at genuine content.

Why should we believe this was a joke? Can you point to any similar examples of a BS read dumped in the middle of what was otherwise seemingly content (i.e. similar posts in completed games)?

[mhsmith0]

This game is cursed.

Now this I can actually agree with.

[mhsmith0]

@mod: kappa prod? >48 hours since his v/la ended

[mhsmith0]

Sorry. My Internet was down for some time.

By the way, Mhsmith, the IC guidelines are specifically for Newbie games, where there is virtually never any reason for Town to self-vote. Here it could possibly be useful in very specific situations, such as turning yourself into a nigh-Deathproof confTown player. Of course, this comes with the hefty penalty of costing Town a mislynch but theoretically it is possible (but rare) that this helps Town. Add this to the fact that Ranger promised to get lynched and you can see some reasons for the self-vote. In fact, Ranger explicitly said it was "not optimal, but viable".

If Ranger had really strong reads and was simply not believed by the town, then "fine I'll kill myself and show you I'm telling the truth that way" is a plausible town perspective (even if I think it's sub-optimal). But "I don't really have reads, so I guess let's just kill me and then, uh, I guess we'll scum hunt tomorrow" (not what she said but kinda the gist of the idea)... how does that even work as a town perspective?

"Don't self-vote as town" is a clear tenet of the IC guide for good reason. Violating it in this game for town!Ranger would require a good reason. Said good reason does not exist, or if it does, I utterly fail to see it. Like, if town!Ranger were to get lynched D2, it would be FAR more pro-town for that lynch to be the result of other peoples votes/reads (so the town can evaluate those votes and see which are likely from town and which from wolves).

So here's the question: what specific pro-town objective does ranger's self-vote achieve, that active and normal scum-hunting would not? Especially given the known fact that if she's a tree, she can be primed anyway tonight (and if she gets primed without getting doused, then she's even deader than if she was just stumped). And the fact that "self-voting is scummy" is a pretty easy vote justification for players of either alignment. How exactly does this stunt help the town?

[mhsmith0]

I never said it was pro-Town to self-vote. I said that it is possible but extremely rare that self-voting is pro-Town. In this case, even if I had promised to get lynched, if I were in Ranger's position I would let Town lynch me and read my wagon rather than self-voting.

What I knew, though, was that Ranger thought she had a reason

. That was my point in that post. I fail to see why she self-voted (as do you) but only Ranger knows why she thinks it to be pro-Town (unless she is actually scum and thought her lynch was inevitable, trying to benefit scum by self-voting).

1) Why did you know this?

2) Why do you continue to choose not to deal with the possibility that by self-voting she INTENTIONALLY tried to create a situation where she would NOT get lynched?

3) What pro-town outcome can you think of? "Well I'm sure there was one" is an incredible cop-out. Put some thought into it. Can YOU think of any pro-town outcome of this? If you cannot, then you need to demand Ranger explain wtf she was doing and why (or you need to conclude that there was no pro-town reasoning, which then leads ot the obvious next step conclusion that she's mafia).

Note that this sort of thing is what most people would call "scum hunting". I'm fully aware that I'm being condescending, but if you start to do stuff like this (as opposed to dumping out naked reads), then maybe you won't get quick-lynched so often as both alignments, and will better be able to show your teammates you're town when you're town (takes off IC-wannabe hat).

[mhsmith0]

Actually...

@Ranger: you self-voted in longnight, right? Do/have you ever self-voted as town otherwise? Is this something that's potentially just a weird part of your town meta?

[mhsmith0]

@Ranger: no rush (not like the game is really moving right now), but can you clarify why it'd be pro-town to self-vote in this game? Especially given that it seems like both times you self-voted as town, it (from what I can tell) worked out badly?

[mhsmith0]

Given that:

1) Ranger remains my top suspect, and she's still ill (so is unavailable to answer my accusations);
2) BTD6 is promising to actually do some scum-hunting at some point in the near future;
3) Two others are being replaced, TM hasn't been around for over a week, and Alpaca was gone for nearly a week then prodged;

I'm not particularly inclined to really do much here until/unless things change.

PS Titus you'd mentioned that Ranger reminded you of the time you were mafia with her. Can you talk about that in more detail? What specifically are you seeing that reminds you of that game?

PPS Maybe this was just carelessness in language, but "Ranger is apparently too tired" is a pretty cheap shot, BTD6. She's made it pretty clear her health is being an issue. Please be careful to respect that (and respect that from other players in the future as well).

[mhsmith0]

What do you mean by "this sort of thing"?

[mhsmith0]

What is your understanding of what I meant by "this sort of thing"?

[mhsmith0]

Specifically, it was asking aggressive and potentially game-solving questions, I.e. Pushing the game forward. That's scum hunting (or one form of it). Answering peoples questions is just playing defense, something quite different.

[mhsmith0]

Yes

Spoiler: .

[mhsmith0]

I think current ranger thoughts would be useful. I think your d1 wagon was pretty garbage and I feel like ranger in particular would/should know better as town, and I keep thinking all the rest has been damage control.

Ps feel free to weigh in on her meta read of me as well. I think that was weirdly over specific for a game where I subbed in at mylo and then watched as the wolves quick-hammered. Do you, or would you, meta read someone to that find level of detail on such a short exposure?

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw, and I know I could be conf!biased since I subbed in knowing iv's flip, but I HATE that people scum read 110. That's like the epitome of putting your thoughts, warts and all, into the thread. That's like the epitome if what you're supposed to be doing as town... and your getting wagoned for it makes me think it was scum driven, which puts me back at ranger.

I suppose it's possible a wolf intentionally stayed off your wagon BECAUSE it was so bad (which I guess would point to m&m if that was actually the case), but I think it's likelier there were two wolves on you or that one was hard pushing you. Because if that was a town driven wagon, that's disgusting.

[mhsmith0]

Someone asked why I thought ranger could be scum. See open 627.

Can you clarify that a bit? I'm cool w looking at that game but if like to know what you're referring to as being a parallel.

[mhsmith0]

Shamelessly quoting someone smarter than me...

If a scum does try some fake scumhunting it will lack righteousness. It will smell feeble. You will struggle to see how or why this vapour is vote-worthy relative to alternative issues present in the thread. Knowing this some scum players might try and fake passion for their vote to disguise the deficit in intellectual integrity underpinning it.

Then you are looking for a disproportionate level of zeal and/or confidence

. A scum in this mode is not necessarily harder to spot, but can be harder to lynch since they can impress weaker-minded townies. They can shamelessly segue from one terrible vote underpinned by garbage to another and not miss a beat. Scum also tend to gravitate to this mode the closer they are to the win.

"Disproportionate confidence" - sound familiar? Confidence completely out of whack with the quality of the case and cited evidence?

Ps full quote at http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... 10#p759434, is great reading

[mhsmith0]

Another one...

Use the meta-data you have on your suspects to help. If you have played in a game with someone before you will have a sense if their voting is beneath their usual quality control threshold as a townie.

Or compare it to other times they have or have not voted within this game for remarkably similar behaviour.

If this game day they consider something vote-worthy but on a previous game day did not (or vice versa) then something could be up. Use their own established standard for voting as the benchmark for their current voting choices.

Iv's "ranger v m&m is t/w" (inside a large post putting his thoughts into thread) gets a 100% scum read from ranger. Btd6's much lazier "ranger v smith is t/w" doesn't seem to register as notable (unless I missed it). The reason for this is ____?

[mhsmith0]

@ranger:when is the last time you've been this openly unsure and without decent guesses in a town game?

[mhsmith0]

*grabs popcorn, prepares for fireworks*

[mhsmith0]

Rangers probably a wolf here. Her IV push d1 was bad, and I feel like she's been pretty sketchy since as well.

[mhsmith0]

FYI M&M was a hydra of Postie and Radiant Cowbells. Town Mafioso (their sub) was an alt of some unknown account. Slot inhabitant #3 is TBD.

[mhsmith0]

Yes but at least you get to enjoy round two of "Is BTD6 mislynch bait or wolf", always a super fun game to play

[mhsmith0]

Somewhat, in terms of the key points (I think - unless there was sketchy stuff beyond just the cheating). Some of it I got from Visorslash's "how to play mafia like a champion" (which was awesome). Also Yates's last game (CHEESE - he was wolf and got banned while playing) was the one right before Fruit Salad, so I'd skimmed that before /in'ing.

[mhsmith0]

you're not a top mafia player until you learn to discern this. it's seriously the hardest thing about playing on this site

Yeah it's one of my big town game weaknesses (accurately finding other town is another one). A big moral victory for me came in Newbie 1691, where Eggman looked terrible most of the game, and was constantly under pressure, and I correctly ID'd him as town mostly because the cases against him were consistently garbage.

Of course I also drove a mislynch on Ircher that game, and then when Almost50 subbed for Eggman he was so utterly horrific that I mislynched him too ... but at least I bagged KAAG first to avoid the sweep (and I HATE, HATE losing to scum sweeps - I now have three such losses, though Open 635 kinda doesn't count since I subbed in at MYLO and was neither on the ML wagon nor was ML'd).

[mhsmith0]

Personally I thought 134 was weirdly oversold. Talked about it more at 602. You'll get there eventually. Still kinda annoyed that the board showed zero curiosity in what I was thinking there before I had to spell it out for everyone.

Also

No, I mean the mhsmith that is town I know will post all angles, IN THREAD, on all players. All of them. And with a very low level of confidence, weakly select the ones he thinks are more likely to be true.

was pretty rich coming right in the middle of 644 and my game-long over-confident tunnel on ploben.

[mhsmith0]

I honestly don't know. My gut says it's becuase she has no idea where she can productively push a mislynch (and/or doesn't want to blatantly over-push another "100%" mislynch wagon), but it's plausible as a town "fuck it I don't know and I'm not going to BS a read I don't have" perspective. I don't think it's a particularly AI moment.

PS Yes that was a Ranger post. It was the sort of thing that sounds like it's well thought out, but when you get down to actually thinking about it, is really superficial (since it was based on a game where I was in for like 72 hours, excluding site downtime, before the final mislynch came in). Even on its own it pinged (who makes THAT specific a meta read on someone based on THAT little meta together, especially when she was IC in a newbie game when I was actually a wolf [though she'd died before i subbed in]?), but now knowing she was wolf in 644, it pings even harder.

[mhsmith0]

lol that you were a wolf in that newbie

?

the entire meta read is backwards. reminds me of "Panther is scum because he KNOWS I am able to provide zero content reads as town" that just had me bertstaring at the screen and lost as to how nobody else saw that she was arguing that she only does that in one alignment. still getting lols from that post as I recall it

FWIW that back and forth did a pretty decent job convincing me that you really were just reading her for stuff that's Ranger-specific and not necessarily AI for her, which made me think it was basically just a vendetta.

do you feel your wolf game has progressed since fruit salad and if so, in what way in particular

I think it actually regressed from fruit salad for a while. I just kept doing worse and worse (nothing like continuing to get quick-lynched to kill your wolfing confidence) and it hit rock bottom at Micro 610. Star Fox was nice because I had a lot of fun in wolf chat and somehow survived despite being pretty obv!wolf with a terrible fake cop claim. Then newbie 1714 was nice because I could slide right into an ongoing town meltdown and win basically by PR hunting at night and not fucking up during the day. Overall I think I can probably do a decent job disguising my active lurking when I'm around players who don't know me. I don't know if I can do a decent job imitating my town game.

[mhsmith0]

was the town metaread she gave of you above not from the game you were a wolf in? as in the meta read is backwards
maybe I misunderstood you but please clarify as this is kind of important to my thoughts on her

No, the town meta read was from open 635, where I was town. It was just a VERY specific meta read, which is weird since she'd ALSO seen me as wolf (given that she was actually following along as IC after her death - dead chat in that game was pretty dead but showed some level of following along). The super-cautiousness with my vote is pretty consistent with my MYLO/LYLO town play, but not necessarily consistent with my town play generally.

It's just weird to develop that specific of a meta read of me from a very small sample size, and then especially weird given that she was playing with me in a different game where I wasn't exhibiting the whole "with a very low level of confidence, weakly select the ones he thinks are more likely to be true" bit, and it hadn't pinged her there at all (at the time I was town-reading her in 644, but the fact that she was scum and had actual knowledge that I was very probably not the one unknown traitor slot only makes the read here even more suspicious to me).

[mhsmith0]

So... (Adding in #s)

No, I mean the mhsmith that is town I know will
1)post all angles, IN THREAD, on all players. All of them.
2)And with a very low level of confidence, weakly select the ones he thinks are more likely to be true.

So you basically made two points here.

2) I'm sorry but this is a terrible meta read on me. As you said, it came during 644, which means you had ample evidence that this was NOT the case (other evidence includes most of my town games, all posted on my wiki entry).
This is the specific part that looks flat out made up, and I'm honestly curious how you think that meta read coincides w 644. Other than in lylo/mylo in a hammer game (and feel free to look at plague mafia for how I handle lylo/mylo in a mom hammer game where a single bad vote can't immediately lose the game).

1) what specific angles and/or which players do you think I was avoiding in this game?

[mhsmith0]

Looks like btd6 is shamelessly bandwagoning again.

@ranger: you were pinged really hard by iv's "ranger or m&m I'd likely scum". Why does btd6's even lazier reprisal of this (and this is the like third time they've done it too) draw no interest or comment from you?

[mhsmith0]

Mod, V/LA until 9th July. My Internet is unpredictable here. I will still try to be active when I can, though.

Anyway, still nothing from Ranger about why it was the best option to self-vote. If there is no reply we need to seriously consider Mhsmith's idea, that Ranger was just trying to deliberately avoid being lynched by self-voting, and in that case we must consider lynching Ranger.

VOTE: Ranger

I am fairly sure that at least one of Ranger/Mhsmith is scum now.

I hate everything about this post.

1) implied "if ranger DOES reply then never mind"
2) writes it in a way designed CLEARLY to blame me if ranger flips town, while basically just sleeping part of my read on her
3) naked "well one of them is wolf" bit
4) slides right in to the l-2 slot from someone who's been bandwagoning all game

Btd, if you were anything other than consistent mislynch bait I'd be all over you for that vote. As it is... I dunno. I still hate it.

[mhsmith0]

1) obviously you potentially re-assess based on what she says, not just on the self vote but on everything else. But you're openly just vote whipping there.

2) "we need to seriously consider Mhsmith's idea" - that's the epitome of deflecting responsibility for your vote.

3) you've examined previously, but "one is a wolf I think" is bad vote justification.

4) I understand that you say you read me and ranger as t/w and have (or seem to have) no particular investment in figuring out which of us is which. I don't really want to be an asshole, but I can't see a way around it. From a competent player this would basically be a scum claim. From you I don't know.

Ps a lone vote can accomplish a lot if you're invested in the lynch and work to get others to join you. If you vote park with a "this is incredibly weak" note, then yes, it accomplishes nothing.

[mhsmith0]

Also, I am indeed trying to find out which one of you is scum, if any. Right now I was focusing on Ranger being possible scum and trying to get Ranger to justify the self-vote.

If you want to figure it out, engage. Ask questions, not just as responses, but find issues that are interesting to you and ask about them. If you're town your opinions and ideas are no less important than anyone else's. Demonstrate that youre invested in solving the puzzle... by showing interest and engagement in solving the puzzle.

To give you an example, you recently lost a newbie game to ircher. Ircher as town tends to be mislynch bait because he's careless and screws up. But he TRIES, and that effort is somewhat apparent once you get used to him. His town game is sloppy... but it's also aggressive and outward focused. Seeking to engage and find answers. If you choose to be more like that when you're town , I think you'll be a better player. Save the active lurking and bandwagoning for when you're a wolf (and even then try to avoid it if you can). When you're town, being read by others is a hugely important thing. If youre town, work to be read by there by showing active engagement and interest in solving the game.

[mhsmith0]

Don't worry guys. I have it all figured out already. Ranger, BTD, and mhsmith are all scum. So, it doesn't matter who we vote for.

VOTE: Ranger

Any other thoughts on the game state? What convinced you on ranger?

[mhsmith0]

Ps that's l-1

[mhsmith0]

So if you liked 975, are you stronger on ranger or btd? "Hi everyone I'm naked l-1'ing in my first post" is fun and all, but an actual opinion on everyone would still be nice.