Open 657: JK9++ (Game over)

[MiniDeathStar]

A claim doesn't prevent them from shooting wrong though... Either way. Tomorrow will be mass claim anyways I imagine. The vig can do what they want.

No, the idea is that vig claims and stops shooting unless we lynch scum, in which case we agree on a target beforehand to avoid shooting a possible PR.

Did anyone offer any plausible explanations why spade was targeted?

I believe Tiger moth suggested that alban or bang might have killed Spade to cement his townreads on them, since he knows them best and can potentially expose either of them in future.

I don't think Spade makes sense as a defensive kill otherwise, he only FoS'd Klingon and lane. As an offensive kill, he could have been used to frame like Klingon? Maybe?

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh, I think another reason alban might have wanted Spade dead was to distract Klingon from the avatar bs and get himself off her hook.

[MiniDeathStar]

(without appearing too obvious by killing *her* directly)

[MiniDeathStar]

I was kind of waiting on your input, Tiger moth.

[MiniDeathStar]

Umm Jin that's kind of the point. Please read what I said again, I don't feel like explaining everything all over again.

[MiniDeathStar]

I have read it and i dont think the vig should reveal themselves. I understand you feel they have done their job and feel they are a worthy distraction for the nightkill but if they dont reveal they might live which is good too.

Or they might get tracked to a corpse.

Or they might be SK (very high chance) in which case their claim will never be believed later on.

Or they might shoot a town power role.

Seriously, the benefits to town for knowing their identity very much outweigh the collateral damage.

Right now anybody who is opposed to vig claim gives me serious SK vibes.

[MiniDeathStar]

I was asking for the claimed townies (if there are).

Still cant get time to read through all the posts. I'll try to read everything tonight or at weekend.

Creature claimed power role.

Charloux claimed vengeful.

lane pretty much gave away his role but I'm not revealing it without his permission.

That's about it.

[MiniDeathStar]

Scum Meter
Tiger moth
Charloux
lane0168
Creature
bangthemafia
Kop
Secret Agent Jin
ScumDeersAreVeryTasty

town

|

~town

|

null

|

~scum

|

scum

[MiniDeathStar]

The vigilante (if there is one) should use their power on Klingoncelt tonight, because she's a massive distraction to town and won't do anything that needs to be done.

First mention of vigilante in the game.

I THINK IM L-1

SOMEONE UNVOTE HOLY SHIT

Not a VT post.

Nah. alban being scum is not proof of Spade!scum.

Said while voting alban. Doesn't strike me as a bussing strategy since a busser would want Spade mislynched, too. Something needs to be gained from bussing.

Not lynching Creature.

If Creture is town, mafia would never say that.

VOTE: alban

Willing to vote here or Tiger Moth.

Tunneling on alban continues way into the end of Day 1, until his wagon is hopelessly dead.

Alban is shot by an unknown killer at sundown.

I think it's Fountain/Ted/ScumDeer's slot. I think they are either a vig or an SK. Right now I'm more leaning SK because of probability maths and scumreads on Fountain.

VOTE: ScumDeersAreTasty

[MiniDeathStar]

Really? Let me try and make it simple then. I think at least one of these fucking PR claims is a BS fakeclaim. Let me do a PBPA and come back

I seriously doubt they are both bullshit, due to the sheer number of people it would clear as VTs.

[MiniDeathStar]

Wish it were that easy.

[MiniDeathStar]

<- This vegetarian doesn't approve of eating deer. Even scum deer.

Vote with me.

[MiniDeathStar]

L-2.

[MiniDeathStar]

Why are you ready to be hammered at the very beginning of the day without even being at L-1?

[MiniDeathStar]

We're not lynching ScumDeers this early. No way.

But I seriously want a vig claim right now.

[MiniDeathStar]

It's not nonsensical. We know there's either a vig or an SK, and SKs love pretending to be vigs. I was reviewing Day 1 to see who might plausibly shoot alban and Ted looked like the best choice. I ISO'd the whole slot and picked anything relevant, no matter how small.

If you're saying you're not vig, I believe that.

But considering nobody is eager to claim vig, even after I've given so many reasons why it's a good idea, makes me think alban's killer is an SK. So that's one more scum we have to hunt for.

[MiniDeathStar]

I wasn't planning to tunnel btw. I just wanted to wring out a vig claim.

UNVOTE: ScumDeersAreVeryTasty

[MiniDeathStar]

What the ...

I seriously hope this isn't you baiting a wagon on yourself so you can use your vengeful power. Please don't do that, it's incredibly stupid to do right now.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm literally lost for words right now.

[MiniDeathStar]

Two things.

1) Fakeclaiming 1 PR will become immediately obvious via a massclaim, because the number wouldn't add up correctly. We now either have an even number of PRs + SK or an odd number of PRs including a vig. PRs also are generally easier to verify than villagers.
2) Fakeclaiming 2 PRs will result in an abnormally large number of them, and could potentially clear all VT claims if the SK is dead. It would also mean PRs would have to be kept alive to keep the number of suspects as large as possible.

On the other hand, *not* claiming a PR at all could potentially clear all the claimed PRs so it's a gambit. Generally though it's easier to hide amongst the villagers and PRs have to die anyway, so it's better to have no reason to avoid reducing the number of town PRs.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm pretty sure he's a vengeful who's baiting. He basically claimed scum. Whatever he thinks he's doing, I don't approve of it, but I don't want to vote him *now*.

Honestly I'd really like to see other players get more involved. I've already bullied two people into claiming, I'm seriously starting to feel like the bad cop here. I don't like being the bad cop.

[MiniDeathStar]

Scum Meter
lane0168
Creature
Tiger moth
Charloux
bangthemafia
Kop
Secret Agent Jin
ScumDeersAreVeryTasty

town

|

~town

|

null

|

~scum

|

scum

[MiniDeathStar]

Mod

Say we're in a 3p LyLo (2 town 1 scum) and Charloux is lynched but vengekills scum, would scum win because they got 50% of the votes before the vengekill or would town win because they eliminated all scum and one of them survived?

I think the vengeful kill happens before the vengeful dies, so town should win.

[MiniDeathStar]

Kop is playing mafia on another site, too, btw, I think that might be sapping some of his activity.

Anyway, I don't see stark differences between his play here and in 656 where he was scum. Maybe he was a bit lower on actual content in 656? I'll have to review him again and compare.

[MiniDeathStar]

Ummm actually he was *more* active as scum. I literally don't know what to make of that.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'd like everyone's biggest 3 townreads that don't include me, Creature or Charloux.

Mine are: Tiger moth, lane and Kop. (Last one because after I thought about it a little, I think he'd have shot me first thing if he was scum)

@Creature:

Do you want to live or die now?

[MiniDeathStar]

Ummmm sorry I totally mistook you for Creature based on the name. Ignore that.

[MiniDeathStar]

There is an SK. 100%. Not even going to press for vig claims anymore at this point. Today may be our last mislynch.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'd like everyone's biggest 3 townreads that don't include me, Creature or Charloux.

[MiniDeathStar]

Okay town. I think it's pointless to keep my real identity secret any longer, considering how many times the others and I have already slipped so I'm going to go ahead and claim

I'm a Town 1-shot Commuter

.

This is why I think

Creature and Charloux

are *likely*

legitimate claims

.

This is how I also know that there is a maximum of

3 vanilla townies left

alive (and why I asked for your 3 townreads).

I'm sharing my private setup analysis with you because I think at this point it helps town to know what we're dealing with and what the most suspicious claims are going to be.

I'm also going to keep the scum guessing and not reveal whether I've already used my power or not.

Assuming Creature is legit:

Mafia Roles	Power Roles	Second Killer	Townies
Goon (alban)	Hider (Klingon)	Serial Killer (??)	VT (Gamma)
Goon (??)	Commuter (Mini)		VT (Spade)
JOAT (??)	Vengeful (Charlie)		VT (lane?)
	Power Role (Creature)		VT (Tiger moth?)
			VT (??)

Assuming Creature is lying, there has to be another hidden power role:

Mafia Roles	Power Roles	Second Killer	Townies
Goon (alban)	Hider (Klingon)	Serial Killer (??)	VT (Gamma)
Goon (Creature?)	Commuter (Mini)		VT (Spade)
JOAT (??)	Vengeful (Charlie)		VT (lane?)
	Power Role (??)		VT (Tiger moth?)
			VT (??)

[MiniDeathStar]

Somebody say something please.

[MiniDeathStar]

No. Lane villager slipped.

[MiniDeathStar]

3 anti-town amongst 6 people sounds like pretty good odds to me.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yes, I think it's HHK?TTT. It can't be TT or Ø because we have no vig. I guess it *can* be a single T but it's improbable (considering each T has 50% chance to appear). If we get 2 more PR claims we'll probably have to lynch between the PRs today.

We don't know for sure if either Creature or I are fakeclaiming unless we get no other PR claims. But Creature isn't a vig.

[MiniDeathStar]

@Tiger moth

, why do you think bang is in the mafia team? Either he pulled off some masterwork distancing or I just don't see it in his ISO.

@Secret Agent Jin:

Well... I'm pretty much a beefier villager. Didn't really stop me from engaging in the game. Also my Open 656 just ended so you can look at it and see how I got myself killed N1 as a villager. I find your excuse a bit out of place to be honest.

[MiniDeathStar]

3 scum in {Tiger moth, bangthemafia, Kop, Jin, ScumDeers, (lane)}.

Tiger moth doesn't look serial killery to me, and ScumDeers is unlikely to be mafia because he had no mafia motivation to bus alban without at least mislynching Spade. As for lane, I think he sort of slipped as villager with his fail analysis and I'm townreading him atm so I don't think he faked it, but he isn't like hard confirmed.

[MiniDeathStar]

Okay, I'll assume

town!Jin

for a moment and see how it unfolds.

I think alban's death is a pretty strong clue for who the SK is. Alban makes a lot of sense as

SK!bang

's and

SK!Deer

's kill, and no sense as

SK!Tiger moth

's kill.

SK!Kop

I think would've killed Creature or bang but idk.

Scum team wise,

mafia!Deer

makes little sense.

mafia!bang

I could maybe see; Spade was townreading bang, but Tiger moth made a good case for why he'd be alban and bang's kill.

mafia!Kop

sure why not. He would probably have wanted to kill me though, unless alban and bang made him kill Spade.

mafia!Tiger moth

, also possible considering she townread alban and scumread Klingon. All in all I would only exclude Deer from the mafia team atm.

[MiniDeathStar]

So, i feel bad about fakeclaiming so i want to end this fast. VOTE: ScumDeers
Sorry i lied to you MDS!

Why is Charloux still a vengeful in your list mini. He said he fake claimed.

Because I think he fake-fakeclaimed to get himself lynched on purpose. He like, literally claimed scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

Town!Jin = bang, Kop, moth as possible mafia.

[MiniDeathStar]

Creature, the way you've been talkng today I think you're going to get obliterated regardless, so might as well make yourself useful before that.

Plus, you are the one who suggested mass claim. I started it because I already PR slipped a few times.

[MiniDeathStar]

I believe lane wants you to go first. I don't really care either way.

[MiniDeathStar]

SAJ and Tiger hardclaimed VT, Deers softclaimed VT. Only unknowns atm are you, lane, Kop and bang.

[MiniDeathStar]

So, exactly where were you when I swept up every nook and cranny looking for a vigilante claim?

Unless we get 2 more PR claims, there is for sure no bus driver.

[MiniDeathStar]

But if they know my role, they can actually find a better way to get rid of me.

Were you afraid you'd be bus driven to yourself?

[MiniDeathStar]

Klingon doesn't look very jailkept.

[MiniDeathStar]

Also lane, 1344 and 1345 together pretty much implied you're a villager. How does a power role get confused like that? Compare with here:

Okay, so with Charloux's vengeful claim he's conftown and

now I definitely know there's 3 mafia

(now 2 left) in the game, and another killing role (either vig or SK).

Where I pretty much PR slipped.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like honestly, the only way lane is telling the truth atm is if the JOAT roleblocked him N1, which is only likely if they had a strong PR read on him from D1.

I kind of wanted to wait and see if we'll get more PR claims but this is uhhhh. I really don't like lane's claim. Like, at all.

VOTE: lane0168

[MiniDeathStar]

And even assuming for a second that all PR claims are real, setup would look like KKHHP?T, and we would literally only have a single VT alive right now, with scum being bus driver and JOAT. Knowing that, and knowing they would only have 1 living VT left, why would both scum claim VT? Because we have 3 VT claims so far. This just doesn't make any sense. ANY sense.

One of the PR claims atm is fake and I'm 99% sure it's lane's.

[MiniDeathStar]

On the other hand, lane's claim is so otherwordly that he's either actually telling the truth or is massively failing as scum. If we have another PR, I guess it's possible that Klingon was bus driven on Night 1 and lane jailkept somebody else.

[MiniDeathStar]

UNVOTE: lane0168

I want more claims.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'll make it simple for you lane. Jailkeeping does two things.

Roleblock, meaning Klingon can't hide

. And protect, meaning she can't die. Well she's dead. Explain that. Because the only 2 ways I can explain it are if Creature is lying and the JOAT blocked you, or if there's another PR and Klingon got bus driven. (Never mind the first part, I just doublechecked and looks like hiding happens before roleblocking).

Meaning at this point you for sure believed every claim completely? How?

I did the maths and it checks out. Look at my analysis on page 58.

Your claim doesn't check out unless we get one more PR claim.

What does your pr slip have anything to do with anything?

It has to do with how I immediately knew there's an "unknown power role" (mine) and that it put us in the 3-mafia setup. In your first maths you left that possibility out. It just looks highly suspicious to me unless you forgot you were a power role.


Now just to make extra sure I'm not bullshitting when I'm accusing you,

@MOD:

If a jailkeeper jails a hider and hider hides behind mafia, barring any other interference, does the hider die in the end?

[MiniDeathStar]

But like, hiding only affects kills, it does't make you untargetable like commuting does. The way I picture the story, Klingon went into alban's house, lane followed her there and wanted to lock her in his basement before alban found her, but for one reason or another he couldn't and when alban came home, he saw a tresspasser and shot her on sight.

I don't think it was Klingon hiding, then alban shooting her for tresspassing, then lane locking up a corpse.

[MiniDeathStar]

Anyway, assuming all PR claims are legit atm:

Mafia Roles	Power Roles	Second Killer	Townies
Goon (alban)	Hider (Klingon)	Serial Killer (??)	VT (Gamma)
Bus Driver (??)	Commuter (Mini)		VT (Spade)
JOAT (??)	Vengeful (Charlie)		VT (??)
	Vigilante (Creature)
	Jailkeeper (lane)
	Power Role (??)

Which means 2 of the 3 claimed VTs (Jin, moth, Deer) are scum, and one of them is the SK (I just don't see both mafia claiming VT when only one VT is alive).

[MiniDeathStar]

Maybe it was Klingon hiding and Lane not being able to find her. I imagine, since hiding goes first, that she hides behind someone and the jailkeeper cant jail her. A quick question, is a mafia jailkeeper possible in this setup?

But read the hider's description here: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

Hiding shields you from kills but not from other actions like protection or investigation.

No mafia JK.

Btw one of Jin and Deer is the SK.

[MiniDeathStar]

*If lane/creature aren't lying that is.

[MiniDeathStar]

Bangthemafia needs to claim now.

[MiniDeathStar]

Mafia could have bus driver as well so Creature should not shoot until that one is lynched.

Now. More claims.

[MiniDeathStar]

2) Without the mystery PR, the SK becomes VT which is only possible if Creature killed alban, which he claims he didn't. I think we have an SK so power roles must always be an even number.

Without lane, the chart looks the same as the one on page 58.

[MiniDeathStar]

Another possibility is SK!Creature with JK!lane and no mystery PR, which would leave us with 3 surviving VTs.

[MiniDeathStar]

Im confused because it says that with 3 T there is no bus driver. It also says there is no setup that has JOAT, Bus Driver, and SK together except 1 T but there is two confirmed and myself which is 3 T.

Can you explain this to me?

It's simple. Either lane or Creature are lying and there's no bus driver. Or we have another secret PR and 2 of the 3 VT claims are fake.

Nobody is hard confirmed atm. Most reliable claim is Charloux.

[MiniDeathStar]

Hmm, Tiger moth is right. Lane can be legit after all.

[MiniDeathStar]

You're reading the setup wrong. 4 power roles means TTT (3), not TTTTT (5). The 0-7 t's

don't include all villagers in the game

, only the slots that can be power roles.

[MiniDeathStar]

You're reading the setup wrong. 4 power roles means TTT (3), not TTTTT (5). The 0-7 t's

don't include all villagers in the game

, only the slots that can be power roles.

You have 5 VTs in your 4 PR chart though

Yes, the TTT setup has 5 VTs. It's HHKKTTT, 3x scum, 1x SK and the rest are villagers. Please read the wiki page carefully.

My suggestion? Lets assume Lane is a PR which leaves us the second chart. That means if we pressure Kop, Deer, Bang, and Tiger and we get there assumed roles then it really is a 75% chnace we hit a mafia/sk with our vote since 3 out of the 4 has to be bad.

We can't assume that until Kop and bang have both claimed.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like, if they both claim villagers we'll know for sure one of the PR claims is fake.

[MiniDeathStar]

Your 2) assumes lane is the scum claim, but we don't know that. For all you know it could be any of the PR claims (e.g. SK!Creature or mafia!Mini).

Other than that you're right. That covers it.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh... there's also the possibility of 2 scums claiming PR, so even if one of {bang, Kop} claims PR and the other villager, you can't trust all PR claims for sure.

[MiniDeathStar]

We'll know for sure how many PRs and villagers are lying if

1) 2 villagers OR a goon die (means we're in TTT)
2) A bus driver dies (means we're in T)

[MiniDeathStar]

Wasn't that like yesterday? Ugh...

Screw America.

[MiniDeathStar]

No, it's KKHHP?T. And at this point there's definitely at least one fakeclaim.

[MiniDeathStar]

I should have breadcrumbed my role so you'd know I'm legit but I didn't expect to be alive by the time we came to mass claiming.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yes we're massclaiming. You're next in line. I believed the claims while the maths still checked out. But it doesn't anymore, so I know at least one person has fakeclaimed at this point.

With mass claim we can basically start solving the game. We have a lot more to work with now than we had earlier today.

[MiniDeathStar]

1. Nope. The only reason we know there's an SK is because a mafioso is dead and the only vig claim says he didn't do it.
2. They both die. But SK may be 1-shot bulletproof.

[MiniDeathStar]

Umm you kind of have to. It's down to you and Kop and you're slowing the game down by not claiming.

Let me put it this way: once we have all the claims down, we'll likely know how many PRs are lying and how many villagers are. From then, we can potentially clear a multitude of people in one fell swoop.

[MiniDeathStar]

Not asking btw.

VOTE: bangthemafia

[MiniDeathStar]

Okay, so we either have 2 fake PR claims (and 1 fake villager) or 3 fake villager claims.

I say we lynch between the villagers today.

[MiniDeathStar]

Bang, are you softclaiming vig, too?

[MiniDeathStar]

I need to stress that either ZERO or TWO of the power roles are fake. If there's a fake PR, there's another fake one, too.

Similar with the villagers. Either THREE or ONE of them are fake.

[MiniDeathStar]

I think bang is implying that he's a vig and thinks you're scum or SK.

[MiniDeathStar]

We are definitely lynching a villager today. We know for sure one of them is lying. The PR claims at least have a chance to be legitimate.

Kop, why does it sound to me like you're not even considering Tiger moth as scum?

bang, Souyahuja was a troll. Ignore them, they are not part of the game.

Personally I still think ScumDeers is the SK based on alban's death but I'll leave the SK to duel with the scum atm.

[MiniDeathStar]

BTW I kind of believe bang's PR claim. He's been dropping PR tells since the beginning of Day 2, like "I swear at least one of these fucking PR claims is fake". Sounds aware.

Yes bang, I think you should hardclaim. I don't think there's any benefit to keeping secrets anymore. If we know your role we can at least agree on possible night actions to take.

[MiniDeathStar]

I don't think the SK is a serious threat to town atm. They have a big incentive to shoot at the mafia at least until there's only one of them left.

[MiniDeathStar]

Hm, so that means the mafia *might* have shot at Klingon or a bulletproof SK.

Anyway. My thoughts: it's going to be incredibly stupid for both mafia to claim villagers in our situation. The mafia know how many villagers are there. If they have a bus driver, there's one villager. If they have a goon, there's 3 villagers. With 3 villagers, they could claim villager and blend amongst them fairly well. But if there's just 1 real villager, that villager dying means they are confirmed scum.

It's much more likely that 1 mafia has claimed villager and the other a PR (along with the SK), or both mafia have claimed PR and the SK a villager. That means if a villager claim dies as SK, the other villagers are very likely clears, and town can narrow the suspects down to the PR claims. With so many vigilante claims this shouldn't be too hard to resolve in MyLo (assuming they all survive).

But like, I'm still considering the possibility that mafia just screwed up and claimed villager. It would be very funny if true.

tl;dr

Lynch a villager.

[MiniDeathStar]

Btw the only reliably verifiable PR claim atm is Charloux. I think lane should jailkeep him tonight.

I think the vigs hold onto their shots for now because wrong shooting or bus driving can endgame us immediately.

I may or may not visit Duckburg tonight. I'll leave it up to the scum to try and find out if they wish.

Anyway, sorry for rambling. I'm kind of waiting for Tiger moth to respond to Jin. Kop's last posts looked weird. Kop+Tiger moth team wouldn't shock me, even though I think they're a lot smarter than to both claim villagers in this situation. Plus let's face it, what are the odds for 3 K's? Like 10%?

(1-(1-0.1)^7)*(1-(1-0.1)^6)*(1-(1-0.1)^5)=0.10, yup.

Idk about Jin. He's habitually scummy as usual. That's exactly how I remember him. But I think his general cluelessness about the setup is genuine, these things are very hard to fake as scum. He sounds villagery.

I wish Deer didn't look so SK-esque to me, too. But he does. Sorry.

[MiniDeathStar]

Charl is pretty much conftown regardless. No scum claims vengeful.

I know I'm town. Although to be honest if at this point you still think I'm scum, I don't know what to tell you. I could have kept you all in the dark and considering how reluctant you've been to follow suit with the massclaim, I could've happily built or supported a case on one of the many lynchbaits this game and ended the day with nothing to gain. You saw how easily I did it with Deer and Charlie.

Right now I'm townreading Creature and (with small hiccups) lane. Bang can't be fake by himself.

But seriously, all scum claiming villager just looks too easy to be true.

[MiniDeathStar]

Charl is pretty much conftown

regardless

. No scum claims vengeful.

[MiniDeathStar]

Hi Jin. I thought you had a super strong scumread on Tiger moth? What happened to it?

[MiniDeathStar]

^And this is why I wanted a mass claim. Makes the game so much easier.

[MiniDeathStar]

ScumDeers should be back soon and deliver his awesome catchup. Hopefully.

I wonder where lane vanished though. Kind of want his opinion right now, too.

@Tiger moth:

I don't think Jin is mafia. Sounded too uninformed and those things are difficult to fake. He could be an SK, but somehow I don't see SK!Jin shooting alban. Alban makes most sense as SK!bang and SK!Deer. I think Jin is town. He's just a little bad at this.

@Secret Agent Jin:

Townreading the scum and scumreading the town isn't a strong tell. It's a mistake that happens often when scum is playing well and town poorly (and let's be honest, town was awful on Day 1). Besides, I myself was townreading alban for a while until he went stealth, at which point I was convinced he was either a bullet magnet PR or scum. Charlie, Gamma, Spade were all incredibly scummy. I don't think you can make a case against someone based on the accuracy of their Day 1 reads, especially in a difficult game like this.

Ignoring Jin and Tiger moth as suspects, who do you think is most likely scum?

[MiniDeathStar]

Scum Meter
Charloux
Secret Agent Jin
Creature*
lane0168*
bangthemafia*
Tiger moth**
Kop**
ScumDeersAreVeryTasty**

town

|

~town

|

null

|

~scum

|

scum

Zero or two of {Creature, lane, bang} are scum.
One of {Tiger moth, Kop, ScumDeers} is 100% scum (assuming town!Jin).
If two of {Creature, lane, bang} are town, then Tiger moth, Kop and ScumDeers are all scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

I think if any of Kop, Tiger moth and Deer flip town, we should be looking to lynch in the power role claims tomorrow.

[MiniDeathStar]

I think Charlie is a super juicy kill for the mafia atm so I think lane should jail him. At the very least it'll cause the mafia to expend their stong kill if lane is town, because no way mafia is killing lane or any unconfirmed power role tonight if we lynch a villager.

Tiger moth, Deer, mind if I VOTE: Kop?

[MiniDeathStar]

Do you think it's more likely scum be in the VTs or the PRs? Honestly Kop and Tiger moth come across as more competent people than to both claim villagers as a team, knowing there's only one surviving villager.

ScumDeers is very unlikely to be mafia given Ted's play on Day 1. I've said it before but I'll repeat that the push on alban didn't look like bussing or distancing. It's not like alban was in any serious danger, not to mention Ted didn't even want Spade mislynched along with alban. But it does make sense if Ted was bulletproof SK; not worried he'd be NK'd by the mafia, and killing his scumread to thin out the mafia team (and prevent being endgamed early along with the village).

So like, if SD is not the serial killer, he's almost certainly a villager.

I've said why I think Jin is town.

It's possible one of {Kop, moth} is mafia and their partner + the SK are amongst the power role claims.

Lynch one of those two today imo.

[MiniDeathStar]

Um that was fast. UNVOTE: Kop.

I want to see what bang and SD think about this.

I want to hear Kop's last thoughts before someone hammers.

[MiniDeathStar]

If you still think I am scum, I can only be scum with you or MDS.

You can be scum with bang or one of the villagers.

Or you can be SK with another scum hiding amongst the PR claims.

[MiniDeathStar]

Do you think there was scum on Spade's wagon?

[MiniDeathStar]

To be totally honest, considering the alban the mafia tried to mislynch Creature and someone (Gamme I think?) described Creature's scum game as literally void of content, I don't think Creature is scum this game. bang+lane I can see. If not, then 3 of the villagers (in which case, lol).

Anyway, tomorrow I think could be gamesolving for town, if the vig/s don't mess up. Just to underline this, shooting as a vig tonight, unless we lynch SK, could bring us from 6:1:1 to 2:1:1, which if no vigs are alive is town autoloss. Do not shoot.

[MiniDeathStar]

No, even without the bus driver, if mafia shoots town, you two shoot town, and SK kills town, it becomes 2:1:1 which is super difficult to win for town and impossible without surviving vigs.

[MiniDeathStar]

Not necessarily. Could just mean SK no-killing. I haven't really thought what the optimal SK play is tbh and I don't want to give the real SK ideas.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh, that's right. Yeah, there will only be 3 VT claims left tonight and if we lynch bus driver, 2 are guaranteed to be scum. Definitely unload the guns in that case.

[MiniDeathStar]

bang is actually right - I do sound very serial killery based on my own analysis, and I'm kinda surprised why nobody has noticed until now. I had all the motivation in the world to shoot alban, and my commuter claim can suggest I'm bulletproof.

Little caveat though: why would SK!Mini (even bulletproof) put herself out there as a village leader, start a mass claim, and flaunt herself to the mafia strongman, instead of blending in? The mafia have excellent reasons to kill a village leader and hope the rest of the town sheep *their* arguments or self-destruct. They also have excellent reasons to kill a gunslinger with a loose trigger finger who's actively shooting at them. Why would I give the mafia reasons to kill me?

SKs are survivalists. They don't want to look too town. If you're looking for the SK, I'm not your girl.

[MiniDeathStar]

The only niggle I have about lane is 1306. It doesn't really make sense that lane would jail Klingon after reading her last few posts.

It doesn't make sense to jailkeep someone you think could be scum?

No. Chances are you'd be saving them from the SK. Mafia don't send their scummiest people to do the night kill, since they are obvious tracker targets. With 52% chance for at least 1 tracker, it's too much of a gamble.

SKs on the other hand love shooting scumreads.

[MiniDeathStar]

Or you know, you could save them from a vig shot, too.

[MiniDeathStar]

1-Shot Vigilante

"Been saving this one bullet all my life... just for you."

                                                         ~Creature

[MiniDeathStar]

Well, when we go into Night I can search though Alban's ISO, maybe I'll see something Towny in there. Maybe.

So. It is done.

I'll ISO Alban, and with any luck I'll have time to ISO the other three on my Scumlist.

See you guys on Day 2.

[MiniDeathStar]

I have the nagging feeling that scum JOAT claiming jailkeeper with the night kill target just sounds way too obvious to be true.

Tiger moth, you see scum in bang+lane and Jin, correct? Earlier you implied that scum!Jin relies on scum!bang, but that would mean lane is not part of the mafia. Something doesn't quite add up.

[MiniDeathStar]

Spoiler: scum!lane x scum!Jin ship

Ok... I can't... Are we really going to believe SAJ that he had this super long post but his delete key cut stuck so he's just there frantically trying to get it to stop deleting his post while watching his whole post be deleted and got it to stop at that part???

@saj, Pretending that actually happened, what was the first part of your big post? Summarize it

That's completely different. The only time delete keys get stuck and you're watching everything get deleted is in the movies

lane's interaction with Jin. Sound like scum distancing to you? I don't think it does.

Spoiler: scum!lane x alban ship

Reading Lane's posts. Complicated and cryptic. Unable to understand finer points. Lane, please write simple comprehensible posts if you can, for someone like me.

Lane totally ignored this.


Alban never commented on lane in detail besides "townlean".

In 880 he forgot to add Kop and lane. He added them at the bottom of the townpile in his next post.

In 951 lane voted alban "to compromise" on a lynch. At least that's what he said when I asked him about it.

Lane was adamant in ending the game with a lynch.

Some interaction with alban later regarding Spade's claim.

That's all I could get from their combined ISO. I don't see enough evidence for scum atm. Maybe I'm missing something, or maybe lane's just not mafia.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm really not seeing the case on

mafia!lane

besides the Klingon part.

[MiniDeathStar]

Reading the beginning of Day 2, what actually concerns me more is why lane didn't jailkeep the claimed power role. That's what I would have done. Anyway, at the beginning of Day 2, lane asks why Creature is still alive and calls him scum for it. Weird thing to say as a jailkeeper.

He also tries to somehow imply Klingon hid behind Creature because he was "the towniest read" and then died. If Creature was "the towniest read", why wouldn't a jailkeeper save him?

If Creature was lane's scumread, why wouldn't he roleblock him?

You're right, I'm starting to think something is murky about that jailkeeper claim. But then again, lane hadn't looked scummy to me so far. I don't know what to think of him atm.

[MiniDeathStar]

Regardless, we can save lanes and bangs for tomorrow. We should be lynching a villager claim today.

[MiniDeathStar]

Jin's a lynchbait btw. I tried really hard to get a feel for scum!Jin but all I see is superficial scumminess. Like, weird posts, overreactions, odd word choice, bad reads, sheeping, etc. But I haven't seen anything like *outrageously* scummy. I feel like Jin is one of those players who try super extra hard to look town if they get scum, but as town they literally couldn't care less and just goof around until they get a grip of the game.

Like, with the case on me I think he just thought he was onto something he couldn't quite put into words and he pounced onto it, until he realised he was wrong and got embarrassed. I can see town!Jin doing that. I think scum!Jin would have planned a case much more carefully and probably on a more apathetic villager than me.

Jin's case on Tiger moth started from the assumption she is scum, and he just tried to piece evidence together but couldn't quite muster any. You all saw how quickly he changed his mind after his case fizzled. Again, I think scum!Jin would have been more diligent or picked an easier target to frame. Tiger moth is insanely good at mafia, she's just hiding it well.

Basically what I'm saying is, I don't like all this digging into Jin. I feel like it's scum orchestrated. Players like Kop and Tiger moth should be able to see through superficial scumminess. I'll be watching them closely from now on.

[MiniDeathStar]

By the way Creature was goofing the exact same way as Jin, up until the last 'Hours' of Day 1. If you're townreading Creature, you should start townreading Jin, too.

[MiniDeathStar]

Calm down lane. I wasn't setting you up for a lynch. Stop OMGUSing me. I was just trying to follow your logic and had some problems with it.

Btw could you show me where Klingon thought Creature was town? I don't think I ever saw that.

Are they all on your scumlist regardless of gammas flip? Or do you already know what the flip will be?

You know this. I literally spent a whole page arguing with Klingon about her unchanging reads based on page 1 votes. I even based her personality quote on it. Like, this wasn't even new information to you. Her scumlist was static. Always was. If that was your reason for jailing her then idk what to tell you.

[MiniDeathStar]

There is a huge difference between reads not changing during day 1 with no flips, and already knowing your reads won't change based on flips. Stop comparing the two

Umm not with Klingon there isn't. She was 100% sure she had the scumteam. Literally nobody else mattered to her. I think you're the only person this game who found that thing weird for Klingon to say.

When did I omgus you?

A few posts ago. "I love mini just setting me up for lynch with false information." Nothing implied I was setting you up for a lynch. I even said I was townreading you.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm not sure if people calling me scum are super paranoid villagers or frightened scum who want to get rid of me but are afraid to shoot and miss.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like, I appreciate how skilled at deception you think I am, but scum!me definitely can't pull this kind of game off.

[MiniDeathStar]

I think Kop has said everything he could. Don't really expect more of him atm.

Scummy Deery Do

, where are you? We need some help from you now. ♫♫♪

Could somebody please prod him?

[MiniDeathStar]

I have strong reasons to think Deers is not mafia. But I also have strong reasons to think he might be the SK. (Most of it was Ted's tunnel on alban and later alban dying).

[MiniDeathStar]

I want to lynch mafia though, not the SK. The serial killer can shoot at them.

[MiniDeathStar]

Okay, what about Tiger?

I've got my eye on her. My intuition says she's an exceptionally blending scum. I just can't find enough evidence for it atm. I'll piece a read on her together eventually, but probably not today.

So with that said, do you think that the mafia member is hiding in the villagers, or do you think he is in the PR claims? Sorry this may be coming off as being thick because I'm not fully understanding the setup.

The most potentially dangerous mafia (bus driver) is definitely claiming a villager. But off the chance we're in *TTT, there's at least 1 mafia in the power role claims, probably both. If we lynch a real villager today, I think we should consider lynching a power role claim tomorrow. If we lynch the bus driver, all power roles will be automatically cleared.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh and if we lynch a goon today, all villagers will be cleared.

[MiniDeathStar]

Unless mafia decided to kill one of themselves N1, then that must mean the SK also claimed a power role.

Scenario: SK!Deer is claiming a villager, 2 power roles are lying mafia.

Okay, from Kop, Tiger and SAJ, who's most likely mafia?

I'm kind of 50-50 between Kop and Tiger moth.

Most of my Kop read is based on our meta (see Open 656 for town!Mini and scum!Kop), which looks similar to his play this game. Except this game he's a little less active and more elaborate with his explanations. Individually, I don't think I find enough scumminess to build a case on him solely from data this game. If anyone can, you're welcome to try.

Tiger moth I suspect mostly based on her efficiency so far. Trust me when I say she's extremely good at this. Like, you even saw how quickly she figured Klingon out while the rest of us were blundering around in the dark. I think a player like her would easily see through Spade_Ace's and Agent Jin's thin veneer of scumminess and declare them newbtown, and not FoS Klingon yesterDay like she did. It just makes me think she has ulterior motives behind those reads.

I'm about 80% confident that agent Jin is just lynchbait. Out of the 4 villager claims I'm least likely to vote for him right now.

[MiniDeathStar]

On the other hand, I'll be a lot more upset by losing town!Tiger moth than losing any of the others. And I can't really find anything incriminating in her ISO. Maybe the "unexpected distancing" Ted mentioned but hardly enough evidence.

You know what, screw it. I think the most likely scenario is that Tiger moth, Kop and Jin are all villagers and ScumDeers is the SK. 2 scum in the power role claims. If I'm wrong, I'll be least upset about losing SDAVT.

VOTE: ScumDeersAreVeryTasty

[MiniDeathStar]

Scumpool tomorrow is {Mini, lane, bangthemafia, Creature} with 50-50 chance. Charloux is as conftown as he can be. I know I'm obvtown but I'm debating delaying commuting anyway. I probably will if SD is the SK, since mafia wouldn't shoot me.

[MiniDeathStar]

But if I don't die, doesn't mean I'm telling the truth. It only means I'm not mafia with lane.

Also I could be lying about having a commute shot in order to keep the scum guessing.

[MiniDeathStar]

Regardless, I think it would be poor play on scum's part to try and cut their odds from 50% to 33% so it might actually be better if I die as town. Hm.

[MiniDeathStar]

I actually think the best thing to do is for me not to commute regardless.

You shoot me. Bang shoots you. Lane and I do nothing.

1. I die as scum, you die as town, we get an extra mislynch and it'll be between bang and lane tomorrow.
2. I die as town and you die as town, mafia will be immediately exposed.
3. I don't die, it would mean you were roleblocked, and:
- If you die as town, still 33% for scum surviving tomorrow's lynch. If you die as scum, we get an extra mislynch.
- If you don't die, we gain no information but lose no information either.

Either way it's probably best if *someone* dies and the pool of suspects shrinks. Right?

[MiniDeathStar]

If we don't hit scum today, why don't you and bang shoot each other?

Yes, actually that's a better idea. You shoot each other and we lynch the survivor, or lynch both lane and I if you two die as town.

[MiniDeathStar]

If scum is in the VTs, they autolose anyway.

[MiniDeathStar]

Guys, I have a confession to make. Up until now I was hiding my real role in hopes that a commuter claim would dissuade scum from shooting me while I have time for another investigation. But seeing as we've come to this, I think it's better if I reveal my actual role, since being alive and potentially having a useless investigation gives less info to town than if I die as clear.

I'm a town tracker

. Proof:

Page five

MDS Post #116 RVS is a good tool to use, in my honest opinion. It sometimes can be used a indicator to things, get to know how people handle things etc etc, I've seen scum try set the tone early on the game and try maintain the same mentality than joining into it. Setting the tone, creating patterns, making pockets, creating avenues and just allowing the town to be sucked in, is something scum would like to do, rather than joining on town, makes more suspicion jumping on. . (However that is obviously dependant on how experienced that scum team are.) It can't all be used as 100% concrete facts.

T

hanks, all that tells me is that

R

VS is useful to scum.

A

nd I'm not scum, soooo...

C

an I continue hating it now?

('

k

op', since I had no idea how to use a K without it being obvious)


Page six

Lane post #131 for some strange little reason, I see town frustration. Mainly gut feeling.

E

rhm, I can plausibly see both town!lane and mafia!lane getting frustrated at that.

Charloux post #141, how going from one scum read to another thing being brought up, how does that make it fake? It could be possibly he sees something bigger than you right now (albeit brought up by kingoncelt), doesn't make his read on you, fake.

R

eminder: you can use [pøst]#141[/post] tags to make it a hyperlink. I had to dig through the pages to find those two posts.

My investigation from last night - Tiger moth visited nobody. Hence how I know she isn't the SK.

I was actually THIS close to tracking alban, I changed it at the last moment since I figured if alban is scum, he wouldn't perform the kill while half the town was onto him. Scum!Tiger moth looked like a good inconspicuous mafia to do the killing. Because of my investigation last night, I put her as my top townread for a while early in the day and said multiple times how I don't think she's scum. But since we've revealed that scum is a team of 3, my investigation became pretty much useless.

Hopefully this won't piss many of you off. I'm fine with dying now if it means shrinking the suspect pool tomorrow, but I still contend that the two vigs shooting each other is the best course of play tonight. To hell with bus drivers.

[MiniDeathStar]

I don't see how jailing me would be a good thing. I won't die OR get an investigation. That's the worst possible scenario I think.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm okay with baiting the mafia kill now. If I'm town and you Creature are town, then bang and lane are almost certainly scum and you'll shoot bang. Bang has to choose between shooting you and shooting me. Maybe one of them can roleblock you while the other shoots me, but that'll look pretty bad for them. Or maybe lane is mafia and bang is SK, in which case we'll both die as town and they'll be exposed.

In the actual scenario that we're all town, 3 of us will die as town, lane will be cleared, and the villagers will all be scum.


ScumDeers, in this setup it's possible to have up to 3 vigs. There's 10% chance for two vigs.

Commuter can leave town for a night once per game and be immune to all night actions. But I'm not a Commuter, I was fakeclaiming. I've explained it now.

Bus Driver can swap the night actions performed on person A and person B. Like, if tracker tracks A and vig kills B, the tracker will track B and vig will kill A.

I believe SDAVT. Looks genuine to me. I think there's only one scum amongst the VTs.

UNVOTE: ScumDeers

[MiniDeathStar]

Same setup. I was just claiming a different power role. I wanted a mass claim but I was afraid of drawing the wrong kind of attention if I claimed tracker right away.

[MiniDeathStar]

BTW Tiger moth could still be mafia who didn't kill. Partner!Bang could have killed Spade.

[MiniDeathStar]

I know it looks bad that I lied about my role, but please look for the scum motivation. Why would scum!me fakeclaim as something other than a pre-planned fakeclaim? Notice how early I breadcrumbed my role.

I knew scum had the means to dispatch an investigative role whether they were a team of 2 or 3, so I just wanted to buy me some more time rather than make myself an obvious target. I know Lynch All Liars is a policy on this site, but it's not like I claimed a power role and then switched to villager or vice-versa. Like, please think carefully before convincing yourselves that I'm scum for fakeclaiming in this situation.

In any case, at this point I'm hoping I get killed tonight to narrow down the suspects tomorrow. With both vigs shooting each other and me dying it would be clear where the rest of the scum is hiding.

Otherwise, I hope I track the right scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

Guys. I just realised if both vigs are real and kill each other, town lose 100%.

Spoiler: This is why

If we lynch a villager, we'll go into the night as 5:2:1. Vigs shoot each other, that's 3:2:1 which goes to 2:2:1 with the mafia kill (bus driver and JOAT). SK has to shoot mafia (a villager claim) or the mafia autowin. Day 3 starts as 2:1:1 (LYLO with 2 scum factions). Town force no lynch. At night, scums roleblocks and kill SK, or bus drives themselves with him and shoot at themselves. Mafia win / draw (depending on SK shot).

If we no lynch today, night starts as 6:2:1. Vigs dead > 4:2:1, SK no kills (optimal play), mafia kill lane > 3:2:1. Charlie and I are conftown, town forces no lynch, SK has 50% chance to kill mafia, mafia kill charlie. 2:1:1 on Day 4, which is mafia win like above. If Charlie and I lynch mafia on Day 3, it would be 3:1:1, SK kills me, mafia kill Charlie, Day 4 is 1:1:1 which is mafia+SK draw.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like, the only way to win this if both vigs are real is to lynch the scum amongst the villagers today.

[MiniDeathStar]

I did some EV maths.

This is what happens if vigs shoot if we no lynch and don't have a bus driver: http://pastie.org/10971195
This is what happens if vigs shoot if we lynch a villager and don't have a bus driver: http://pastie.org/10971196

I calculated those with the presumption I'm town, which I am. But anyway, if vigs are going to shoot at each other, optimal play is to no lynch today.

But like, after I did the maths, I found out that vigs shooting each other either leads to LYLO with no clears or to town win if 1 vig is mafia and the other is SK.

The shooting each other part was a stupid idea.

[MiniDeathStar]

I was just calculating optimal play and assuming worst case scenario for town. Calm down please. This would only be valid if vigs actually shoot each other, which I just demonstrated is a fail tactic.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like, even in the best case scenario, town goes into LYLO with no clears if a vig shoots.

[MiniDeathStar]

How about I track lane and he visits a random person other than me?

[MiniDeathStar]

If we lynch the bus driver today, all power roles will be 100% confirmed. In which case shooting villagers = town autowin.

[MiniDeathStar]

The rundown:

- lynch villager claim
- vigs do nothing unless bus driver is lynched
- lane visits some rando
- I track lane
- tomorrow you guys can figure it out if I'm dead. Just use your brains!

[MiniDeathStar]

*lane should visit one of bang/Creature, since scum can't visit partners.

[MiniDeathStar]

I was writing a big EV table with all possible outcomes and it looks like some scenarios in which 2 townies die tonight put us in a scum draw.

[MiniDeathStar]

We're at 6:2:1 right now, mislynch + 2 town deaths = 3:2:1, which is LYLO-1. As in, scum draw.

No lynch + 2 town deaths = 4:2:1 -> 4:1:1 / 4:2 -> 3:1:1 / 3:2 / 2:1:1 -> 3:1 / scum draw -> 2:1.

We might actually have a LYLO situation *right now*.

[MiniDeathStar]

Um guys you're forgetting that SK!moth killing alban makes no sense anyway. She would want to kill a scum read.

[MiniDeathStar]

Btw are we really going to assume that all scums have claimed VT? Sounds close to impossible to me.

I'm townreading Creature. I think lane and bang are both scum.

Um guys you're forgetting that SK!moth killing alban makes no sense anyway. She would want to kill a scum read.

Huh? Alban was scum read and flipped scum. Or am I reading this post wrong?

Alban was scumread by Klingon and Ted and somewhat by lane. Tiger moth was townreading him. SKs don't shot their townreads on Night 1, they go for who they think is scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

lane could also be fakeclaiming JK.

[MiniDeathStar]

I mean they could kill me and I'll never know. Scum!Lane could just say they used strongman power.

[MiniDeathStar]

Also I'm somehow super doubtful I'll be alive tomorrow.

[MiniDeathStar]

I should have just kept my mouth shut and gone along with my commuter claim. I failed. :/

[MiniDeathStar]

Creature. Which do you think is more likely? bang and lane are both scum? Or 3 of the 4 VT claims are all scum?

Kop and SDAVT don't look super scummy to me right now.

[MiniDeathStar]

Spoiler: Big EV table of bad news

Day 2	Night 2	Day 3	Comments
Serial killer lynched	MiniDeathStar dies No one else dies	5 : 2 (LYLO+1)	You have 1 mislynch and then LYLO.
Villager lynched	MiniDeathStar dies No one else dies	4 : 2 : 1 (LYLO-1)	Probable scum draw.
Villager lynched	MiniDeathStar dies Town dies	3 : 2 : 1 (LYLO-2)	Scum draw.
Villager lynched	MiniDeathStar dies Mafia dies	4 : 1 : 1 (LYLO)	LYLO x2.
Villager lynched	MiniDeathStar dies Serial killer dies	4 : 2 (MYLO)	Lynch.
Mafia lynched	MiniDeathStar dies No one else dies	5 : 1 : 1 (MYLO)	No lynch.
Mafia lynched	MiniDeathStar dies Town dies	4 : 1 : 1 (LYLO)	LYLO x2.
Mafia lynched	MiniDeathStar dies Mafia dies	5 : 1 (MYLO+1)	You have 1 mislynch and then MYLO.
Mafia lynched	MiniDeathStar dies Serial killer dies	5 : 1 (MYLO+1)	You have 1 mislynch and then MYLO.
No one lynched	MiniDeathStar dies No one else dies	5 : 2 : 1 (LYLO)	LYLO x3.
No one lynched	MiniDeathStar dies Town dies	4 : 2 : 1 (LYLO-1)	Probable scum draw.
No one lynched	MiniDeathStar dies Mafia dies	5 : 1 : 1 (MYLO)	No lynch.
No one lynched	MiniDeathStar dies Serial killer dies	6 : 2 (MYLO+1)	You have 1 mislynch and then MYLO.

tl;dr:

We have to lynch scum today.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm seriously starting to suspect that bangthemafia fakeclaimed. Look at his Day 2 ISO.

But Spade's kill doesn't make sense to me too. Why would scum leave Creature who claimed PR and kill Spade claiming VT? So I can imagine 2 things- either scum felt threatened by Spade. Or probably wanted to use Spade's FoS list to incriminate them. Or Spade was killed by Vig/SK, and scum's kill got protected. In the last case, the protector should know for sure that their target is a townie

Spade's kill doesn't make sense to him. He claimed to have done it. I get wanting to keep his role secret, but at the very least it should make sense to him.

Having said that, I feel Spade's kill whether its by scum or by SK, has to do more with his FoS list than his claim. Also since, not many scumread Spade, I dont think he got Vigkilled. And if he indeed did, Vig is anyway amongst us, and will claim that later. So we will come to know.

The vig who killed Spade doesn't think Spade got vigkilled? If I was a vig who killed Spade, I would've at least softclaimed here. "Spade was honestly pretty scummy and I think he could have been vigkilled."

I like Lane. He is the most Townie to me right now, much more than the 2 claimed PRs

I don't think Creature is scum, so if bang is scum, guess who the other scum is. Hint: it's not me.

I know anything possible, but just by probability, getting 2Ks is less likely. So if Charl is Vengeful, its less likely we hav a Vig and more likely an SK! Anyway, I wish we had a Rolecop!!!

Does this sound to you guys like a vig talking? Also there's no if. If bang is vig, Charlie is 100% vengeful. Vig's presence depends on a vengeful.

[MiniDeathStar]

Stacking the deck against bang:

- All the power roles being innocent depends on both mafia AND serial killer claiming villagers. The mafia know how many villagers are alive. I don't think they would be this stupid as to put themselves amongst the 25% odds.
- If I remember Bernoulli trials correctly, the probability of getting exactly 6 PRs out of 7 rolls is (7 choose 6)/0.5^7 = 5.5%. That's how likely it is to have 6 real PRs.
- Contrast this with the probability of getting exactly 4 PRs, which is 27.3%. (Jfc never thought my statistics class would be useful here )
- Bang repeatedly opposed mass claim, despite admitting that he's won on Day 2 by analysing the setup and mass claiming.
- Bang tried more than once to cast doubt on me when I've easily been the most helpful person this game. Remember the mafia can only win by keeping the suspect pool as large as possible and they clearly have incentive to get rid of me. He did the same with Creature btw.
- Bang and alban both townread each other.
- Bang was incredibly jumpy at the avatar accusation on behalf of alban. To be totally honest it was annoying me, too, but my frustration was that Klingon and Ted were getting stuck on an unreliable read. Bang's doesn't read like that at all. ISO him.
- Bang and lane were the last PRs to claim. Lane in particular waited suuuper long. Bang had an excuse, but his claim was terrible.

All that said, and consulting my EV table, this personally feels like the best choice to me.

VOTE: bangthemafia

[MiniDeathStar]

And if he indeed did, Vig is anyway amongst us, and will claim that later. So we will come to know.

I took this as bang soft-claiming vig.

It could be interpreted that way, but it was also an obvious observation. A town vig who's killed Spade was obviously not going to keep quiet.

[MiniDeathStar]

Even without the scumread on bangthemafia, I still get bang and lane as scum by POE. Creature doesn't look scummy. I'm not scum. Charlie is conftown. 3/4 VTs being scum is highly unlikely.

The only possible thing that could work against Creature is the fact he's still alive after he claimed PR yesterday. If bang shot Spade, scum could have tried to kill Creature and hit his SK bulletproof vest.

[MiniDeathStar]

(7 choose 6)/2^7 = 5.5%

Corrected the maths.

[MiniDeathStar]

@Everyone please answer this:

Which scenario do you think is more likely?
3 of {Jin, Kop, Tiger moth, SDAVT} are scum?
Or 2 of {lane, bangthemafia, Creature and Mini} are scum?

[MiniDeathStar]

I don't think you're scum with me.

I think it's possible with MDS, or you're serial killer who did shoot, and MDS is lying scum.

Either way I'm thinking we kill kop and let these night actions play out

That's an odd way to phrase it.

[MiniDeathStar]

The second option. And you putting yourself in the list, but and not me is kind of disturbing. NEVER treat somebody as conftown unless cleared by a cop or something like that.

You are conftown because of 2 vigilante claims. Even if they are both scum, that means the remaining PRs are town, and that includes you.

[MiniDeathStar]

Sorry forgot to remind: the setup is designed in a way that in order for a vigilante to exist, there must be a vengeful.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh, you mean 1xK isn't always vengeful?

[MiniDeathStar]

This sheeping without adding much is bothering me a little.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm foreseeing a repeat of the Day 1 wagon with Spade.

This is exactly the problem I have. I'd build a super solid case on someone, people would sheep me and I'd start second guessing myself. Did I overthink it, or is bang really scum? Is bang the safer choice or lane? Why am I so sure Creature isn't scum?

I seriously hate my thought process.

[MiniDeathStar]

I need to sleep. Please don't do anything reckless while I'm gone.

UNVOTE: bangthemafia

I'll wait for bang to defend himself. Also, please, anyone who's town should at least try to scrutinise my thought process and point out any weaknesses, like Tiger moth did. I don't want to run all the decisions here by myself. You saw how terrible I did with Spade_Ace yesterday. I really don't want a repeat of that today.

P. Edit: No, I don't think it does? It could be your connection.

[MiniDeathStar]

You are actually really good! One thing you are lacking is that you are easily misled. But if you fix that you will be unstoppable! Just have more confidence and it's gg!

Yeah... "just". Well thank you ♥ I just don't want to end up as the voice of the whole village. People should contribute their own thoughts.

MDS, dont backtrack on your very reasonable thoughts. A level of gut reads are needed on this game, you back your gutreads up with information and statistics. I agree with Charl, you are an amazing player and you shouldnt let others make you second guess yourself. If it makes you feel any better, i want you in every game i play because you are really good at this game. If you flip scum then i will be blown away, you play the game that good.

You're too sweet ♥

Alright, so where we at for night actions to confirm as many town as we can?

You should jail a random person (pref. the scummiest) and have me track you. Vigs can't shoot or it'll endgame us.

I really think we should be lynching in the VT pool. Although mini brings up good points on bang. Makes it look like he thought of claiming vig after those posts... At the same time there's the post tiger quoted, so I'm torn. I think we lynch a VT.

Here's the plan, I won't jk. Creature shoots mafia, bang shoots sk, sk shoots mafia. I think that's the easiest and successful plan for town win

No, I don't think so. Look at the EV table I wrote up on the previous page. We are in a pseudo-LYLO situation right now, and I think we should go for the most probable lynch. I don't think there are 3 scum amongst the 4 villagers so that's 25% odds, compared to (fmpov) 67% between you, bang and Creature.

I have something that could make you more confident about town!me, but not sure if I should say that.

I welcome anything that makes me more confident!

Am I at L-1? I am at hospital so cant post atleast for next 3-4 hours. Dont be a dick to hammer before I get a chance to read and reply to everyone. To put in brief, I am a Vig. I feel 2 of 5 power roles are lying. But statistically feel its better to lynch a townie claim (75% vs 40% chance of lynching anti town). Even if the lynch turns out to be a mislynch (25% chance), we can afford that. And MDS, I would seriously advice you to get over yourself and your unquivering logics. You have been "leading" town in almost every lynchwagon and gave such a WIFOM reason why nobody should suspect you. To borrow your own words, think of a townier explanation if you can or wait till I am free. Or be ready to eat your own statements.

Okay, let's try to dissect this. If you feel 2 of the 5 power roles are lying, you should vote lane or Creature, since they would be almost 100% scum to you (that's higher than "75%"). Statistically it's not better to lynch a townie claim, since 1 out of 4 is worse odds and a mislynch today loses town the game if all scum shoot town. Scum you would know that very well.

Now let's talk about me. How many opportunities did I have today to win the game as scum?
- keep the claims secret so the lynch is totally random
- keep the claims secret so town has no idea about the setup (as mafia I would know the setup)
- lynch a scummy villager (like Deer) and kill town tonight
- keep the EV secret so you don't know we're in a MYLO/pseudo LYLO situation
- lynch you; I was the one who started your wagon, and I made it stop

This is not WIFOM. I wouldn't toy with the villagers and risk my plans backfiring when I already have the game in the bag. The village trusts me. That's the best thing I could ask for as scum. Nothing would be stopping me from leading them to their graves with a well-placed case... like the one scum!me supposedly built on vig!you. If I were scum, I would just lynch you:

Ummm if Inifnity was scum and farside was not he would (should?) have quickhammered. Why wait and risk someone unvoting when he had the game in the bag?

So forgive me if at this point I see people casting doubt on my intentions as shifty scum who're trying to keep the suspect pool larger or at least to plant the seeds of doubt.

Incidentally this suspect pool thing is what you and lane have been doing by trying to shift the focus back onto the villagers when I already explained (rather diligently) why I no longer think lynching a villager is viable play for the town. Of course if you're SK or scum with lane you'd know there's 0% chance of losing a team member if we lynch a villager. Same logic applies to me btw so again, if I were scum, I'd be looking to lynch a villager.

To sum it up, I'm 90% sure you're scum, 75% sure lane is also scum. Please persuade me that lane and Creature are the scum, or that two villagers are partners and one SK. We have time.

And if I'm totally honest? I think if the whole scum pulled such a ridiculous gambit as to hide amongst the single villager, and managed to look sufficiently town to slip under my radar, they bloody deserve the win. I'd even offer them a prize.

[MiniDeathStar]

By the way, another game I was in just ended.

Highlights:
- I played horribly scummy that game because of the difficult-to-read forum format and because I felt a little intimidated as the new girl in town while all others were a clique. Also, bastard games. Ew.
- Apparently people are real suckers for my emotional defence.
- I built a game-solving case on the last scum and then dropped it because his claim looked legitimate. I may have a problem with that.
- I was a tracker again, so lol.
- Tracker investigation sealed the game.

Anyway, feel free to look at it for meta purposes. Oh and Kop, thanks for inviting me there!

[MiniDeathStar]

MDS, you are so sure of yourself! Good for you, but bad for the town.

I am anything but sure of myself. Everyone has noticed that except you.

My last post was on page 67. I have been busy with real life. But you wont even let me read those 7 pages, right? I havent got time to read those pages but will try to answer you offhand.

Then go ahead and read them please.

Yes, I agree, it intuitively sounds impossible that 3 VTs are fakeclaiming. But if you think about where a mislynch can happen and how much it can cost, isnt it simple to understand that mislynch chance is 25% in VTs whereas 60% in PRs. Secondly, if you are 100% sure that the fakeclaims are in PRs, its different. If not, why would a town-you risk a PR mislynch over a VT mislynch?

Because a single mislynch loses town the game. Thanks to the serial killer in a MYLO right now. Even if we no lynch today, the game could end in scum win or draw if both scum factions kill town tonight unless you lynch the SK tomorrow. That's waaaay worse odds than lynching between the PRs today.

At this point "losing a PR" is bloody irrelevant. Losing any townie could cost us the game, period.

I asked who killed Spade because I hoped someone will slip something. Either a scum might have killed Spade and would fear being tracked and may claim Vig who killed Spade, or a SK may slip something, somehow.

And you claimed vig who killed Spade, exactly what you were expecting the scum to claim. I mean, lol. Like why would you even bother asking that if you KNEW he's dead because of you?

It might have been a shitty idea or strategy. But you feel a scum-me wouldnt have kept a track of what all I had said, especially when I had not posted much on Day2? I was quite busy in real life and was about to get a prod twice. But with so less posts on day2, I could have easily kept a record of everything I said.

Yes, I do think you were very careful with your claim. You waited after EVERYONE, absolutely everyone had claimed, and said you were a power role only after Kop claimed villager. You then took your time to specify which power role. Why could you just be upfront? It kind of feels like you were thinking about the most believable role to claim.

Also, if a scum-me had to claim, why do you think I would pick Vig role of all? When already 2 players had claimed a killing role? I am not a fool to know that KKK, though not impossible, has much less chance! I could have picked an investigative role that nobody claimed and would have either incriminated a townie wrongly or just pretended I investigated one of the nightkills. Or even better a protective role like a doc- just keep telling the town you saved yourself every night. So for the last bloody time, I am a Vig!

You were setting Creature up since the beginning of the day. Considering he claimed vig, you could have chosen that role to counterclaim him. Or you could have chosen it to account for nightkills. Doctors can't save themselves, and investigating roles with incriminating claims look extremely suspicious when declared so late. Or you could just be the SK. It's not like you have zero reasons to claim vig like you're implying.

I dont know. From whatever I read till page 67, I would place SAJ and Tiger at equal "null to slight scum" level; and Scumdeers and Kop at equal scummier levels. So if I must choose here, I would choose Scumdeers or Kop.

How surprising that both you and lane are voting Kop. /s

It can be ANYONE. Lane and You have contributed more to the game. So I tend to gravitate towards Creature and Charl. But everyone has some Grey shades-

No it can't be anyone. I'm obvtown. Charl's obvtown. You should be conftown to yourself. It should be Creature and Lane to you. PERIOD.

Creature-

Its so convenient to claim Vig and say I didnt kill anyone. Plus chances of KKK being low, and him being in my scumreads since D1 though its not a very strong reason.

Then vote him.

Lane-

He has been a mystery to me. But I like his reads and analysis. And stop imagining that I would so openly buddy my scumpartner. I found his explanation of jailkeeping Klingon quite relatable. And you/SAJ (who was it?) not finding it possible was in fact surprizing for me.

It's easy to imagine if you're the SK actually. Otherwise it's a WIFOM.

MDS-

Her explanations of why she cant be scum are all WIFOMs. She is the towniest- but sometimes such players are too townie to be true. I had a similar feeling with FoD- too scummy to be true. The way she is leading everyone, and everyone is just following her is scary. I am surprized nobody even questions her anymore.

No, they are not WIFOMs. At this point everyone trusts me, as scum I could have done whatever the hell I wanted. I could have lynched Deer, I could have lynched Kop, I could have lynched you. I could have lynched Spade on Day 1. Literally nothing stopped me. The fact I didn't do that should make it painfully obvious to you that I'm more interested in finding and lynching the scum than in lynching anyone but the scum.

I'm not a puppeteer. I don't play with my food. If I'm scum and I have a clear path to victory, I take it.

I find your constant attempts to accuse me incredibly scummy.

3. Outcome-

If we lynch town we most likely lose. Doesn't matter whether it's a power role or a villager. We just lose.
If we don't lynch, we could end up in a worse position tomorrow.
If we lynch scum, we have a good chance to win.

VOTE: Kop

Well what a terrible vote.

Stop spamming by posting about other games. Are you trying to use your role from other games to influence us about your townieness? Else why should we be interested in what all happened there? And whats "Again"? I thought you claimed 1 shot commuter?

It's part of my meta and it can't be accessed from my profile here. I don't see why it's "spam".

In that game I was town and I did the exact same thing with building a case and then second guessing myself. In case you think I'm scummy for that.

My commuter claim was a ruse. I was hoping that if the scum thought they could miss a shot at me, they would go for someone else and buy me a night. Matter of fact I should have stuck with it but it's too late now. I'm a tracker, Tiger moth visited nobody, and I've already provided proof to back my claim up with. Read the stuff after page 67.

Final reminder bang: you need to convince me that lane and Creature are both scum, or I'm voting you. Kop is not getting lynched today.

[MiniDeathStar]

Whole of page 68 is just MDS pushing Lane against the wall for that Klingon thing! I cant see why you find that so inexplicable, MDS!

Can you explain 1699? An anti town is an antitown. Why would you worry whether its SK or scum? I am too lazy to now go back and dig it out, but few pages back I think you said SK will increase night kill count, so we must lynch SK! What makes you do that turnaround?

Stop trying to OMGUS me. I'm not going to explain myself any further. Anyone who thinks I'm scum is not coming from a town point of view.

[MiniDeathStar]

I think we already discounted the mutual shooting as a bad idea?

If we lynch an innocent today, it leads to:

- scum win if no vigs are mafia
- scum win if 1 vig is mafia
- 2vs1 LYLO if 1 vig is SK
- town win if 1 vig is SK 1 vig is mafia
- scum win if both vigs are mafia

EV here: http://pastie.org/10971196

The bottom line is if we kill an innocent today and two more die tonight, town is screwed. Vig shooting or not.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm working on another EV table that calculates what could happen if:

- no lynch today
- Mini tracks lane
- lane jails bang
- bang shoots Creature
- Creature shoots bang

Looks good so far, but loooots of possible combinations to evaluate. I'll get back at you on that later.

[MiniDeathStar]

Ughhh barely on the third case scenario and my head already hurts like hell. I wish I had someone helping me here. :/

[MiniDeathStar]

Hey bang. Let me ask you something, please, because this is really bothering me for some reason.

Imagine a situation where you're scum, in final LYLO, and the two remaining villagers are voting each other. What would you do?
Would you quickhammer one of them and end the game quickly?
Or would you toy with them and dance around with your vote?

I respect your paranoia, it's probably useful to trust nobody, but please don't think I'm so vain that I would toy around with a village that trusts me just to get some compliments on my scum play. I'd have ended this waaay earlier instead of putting in so much effort into crafting these elaborate tables and pushing so many different wagons before derailing them myself. I had all reasons to.

Like, I would really appreciate it if you stopped insulting me as a person by implying I'm a WIFOMing scum and entertaining myself with you. It's such a backhanded compliment that I'm a little offended you'd think so little of me. The thing you're suggesting I'm doing goes way beyond legitimate strategy and very much into machiavellian/sociopathic territory. I mean, I guess I could be that person, but I'm not. I'm really, really not.

So please. I don't care what your alignment is, or how legit of a strategy it is for scum!you to paint me as a suspect. It's making me uncomfortable to play this game if, after everything I've put into it, I get shit like this thrown at me.

Sorry if I'm being mean right now but I legitimately feel upset by this.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh that's rich.

[MiniDeathStar]

You know what, I just completely lost the motivation to try and solve this game. If anyone has anything to add, be my guests. I'm leaving this in your hands. I think I've done enough.

[MiniDeathStar]

Wow. I sound like a bitch. Sorry, that came out way more passive aggressive than I intended.

[MiniDeathStar]

Bang, I will explain post game or when we're both dead why I reacted like that. I know you didn't mean to offend me and I promise I'm not this sensitive usually, I'm just having a bad day and this felt like the final straw.

There isn't much of a plan, ScumDeers. If we lynch bang and he is scum, I can try to verify lane by tracking him. If bang is town, then it's lane + Creature. SK could shoot one of them so they have a shot at winning, but if SK chooses to shoot town and mafia shoot town, it's pretty much a mafia win.

If I turn up dead tomorrow, assess the damage and try to lynch the right choice. maf!bang gives 50/50 between lane and creature, town!bang means either lane and Creature are scum together or all villagers are scum. If there's only 3 townies left, lynching SK or no-lynching is autolose. town!Creature can probably try to win it for town so only lynch him if you have super solid evidence or if lane turns up scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh and I forgot, if bang flips scum, Creature should 100% shoot lane.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh, *AND*, if Creture is town *and* bang is town, Creature can take the 75% odds and shoot at a random villager.

[MiniDeathStar]

And if bang is town and lane is town, lane should WIFOM and jailkeep whichever of me and Charlie he thinks is most likely to be shot at.

[MiniDeathStar]

lane should jail anyone alive that night if bang flips town.

If bang and lane are both town, then the scum are in the villagers. Lane shouldn't jail those, he should go for people who are likely to eat the scum bullet - me or Charlie.

As for you, if bang flips town, shoot a villager and hope you hit mafia.

[MiniDeathStar]

VOTE: bangthemafia

[MiniDeathStar]

Should I shoot if bang flips town? I'm afraid of the bus driver.

A random villager. That way you're less likely to be bus driven and more likely to be roleblocked.

But if you're roleblocked, that means lane won't be and his protection at least has a chance to succeed.

[MiniDeathStar]

Ummm. I am utterly confused right now.

The lane kill I get. I told Creature to kill lane if bang is mafia.

The Kop kill I totally don't get. I 99% expected to die last night.

I was roleblocked btw, so lane has to have been protecting me. Whoever killed Kop somehow knew lane was legit.

[MiniDeathStar]

Possible scenarios: lane was a vig kill, Kop was a scum kill. Whichever other scum tried to kill me failed thanks to lane.

Or: lane was a scum kill, and the other scum knew one of Charlie/I would be protected and went for Kop. So how did that scum know lane was legit?

[MiniDeathStar]

One of Creature and Charloux has to be fake. That I know 100%.

1) Fake Creature killed lane. The villager scum killed Kop. How did the villager scum know not to shoot at me or Charlie?

2) Fake Charloux would have known lane, I and Creature are all legit. He knew either him or I would be jailed, so either his kill would have been roleblocked, or failed because of protection. He could have killed Kop. The villager scum must have shot at me and failed.

Scenario 2 obviously makes more sense, except for Charloux's vengeful claim. I find it super hard for that to be scum.

I literally don't know who's the PR scum now. I was 3897549% ready to bet on lane.

[MiniDeathStar]

Or maybe the villager scum assumed scum!lane would kill me and die to vig regardless, so they took their chances. Why Kop though? Charlie and Creature would have been clear. It makes 400% more sense to kill either of them. Plus, shooting a villager narrows down the suspect pool for the villager scum. It makes no sense at all.

[MiniDeathStar]

Even if I were scum, it still makes no sense for Kop to die. Why? Because I was roleblocked, so my shot would have failed. That means whoever killed Kop was a villager claim. Why would a villager claiming scum shoot other villagers? It's utterly counterproductive.

[MiniDeathStar]

No. I think Kop was the PR!scum's kill. The villager scum tried to shoot me and lane saved me. Thank you lane ♥

[MiniDeathStar]

4:1:1 -> lynch SK -> 4:1 -> mafia kill, vig kill -> 2:1. Lynch vengeful/mafia, vengekill vig/mafia. Sounds fair.

However, if *you* Creature are the SK, then you could be bulletproof and your vest would save you from the vengeful kill.

Let's see..

4:1:1 -> lynch Charlie, Charlie shoots SK!Creature, vest saves -> 3:1:1 -> SK mafia both kill town -> 1:1:1, scum draw.

Or also...

4:1:1 -> lynch mafia -> 4:1 -> SK!Creature kills -> 3:1 -> lynch Charlie, vengekill fails -> 2:1 -> SK!Creature kills again -> SK wins.

I don't like any of this.

[MiniDeathStar]

But then, if Creature is the SK that still means villager scum shot Kop. Which is lol.

Charloux is the most logical scum here. I just don't see how they'd risk it with that vengeful claim. They have to have planned this way in advance and never planned for Charlie to be the last scum standing.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh and not that it matters but I attempted to track Tiger moth again to verify if she's the last mafia or actually a villager. The fact she didn't vote yeterday and fed into my doubt regarding bang kind of supported that idea.

[MiniDeathStar]

We lose. It's LYLO.

[MiniDeathStar]

This is the way I see this right now.

If Creature or I are scum, the fake villager killed a villager.

If Charlie is scum, vig Creature killed lane, and the fake villager tried to kill me (and lane stopped it) or Charlie (and the SK vest stopped it).

Charlie makes most sense as scum in the PRs. EXCEPT HE CLAIMED VENGEFUL.

So either the fake villager is shooting real villagers for some reason (probably because they were afraid to hit JK's target? Idk why else), or the vengeful is a fakeclaim.

[MiniDeathStar]

Secret Agent Jin
ScumDeersAreVeryTasty
Tiger moth

Who fits SK the most?

Why do you think SK is amongst the villagers btw?

[MiniDeathStar]

@Mod:

If the SK is bulletproof, would that protect them from a vengeful kill?

[MiniDeathStar]

It makes sense if bang was scum with Charloux, since they could coordinate the vengeful + vig claim. But it also makes sense if you just claimed vig as SK so you could shoot with impunity. With TTT the mafia could plausibly have planned to both claim villagers until I analysed the setup and they knew what claims we were expecting. Or maybe they planned it to claim 1 villager 1 PR all along. They knew the setup from the beginning, they had all the time in the world to plan their moves.

I don't think I can deduce it with the information I have atm.

I just know it makes little sense for the villager scum to shoot Kop. They could have predicted lane would either kill or protect me and could have shot at you (Creature) or Charlie. Kop was a claim that could have been lynched instead of them. It could be elaborate WIFOM, or just plain bad play, or maybe the villager scum DID try to kill me, and Kop was killed by the scum!Charloux.

Idk what to do. If mod confirms that vengekill bypasses SK vest, then I'm up for lynching Charlie.

[MiniDeathStar]

We dont know who is lying within the VTs, i am a VT so that narrows it down to Moth or Deer. What we do know is 1 of the 3 PRs is fake. I trust MDS (maybe to my lose) so that means it is Charl or Creature. The way i see it we have a 50% chance to hit scum with this lynch if we go Moth, Deer, Charl, and Creature.

I doubt that a scum PR would shoot within their group as that narrows the pool down and the same for the scum VT. It must have been cross kills.

Who do we aim for? Moth or Deer?

You should be trusting me, and I'll explain why, because it looks like bang didn't get it.

1) As scum, I could have played a very different game on Day 2. Instead of giving town all this information that scum me would already have had, I could have kept you in the dark. So let's say I did a gambit for town credit.

2) The gambit worked, everyone thought I was obvtown. So what did I do then? I started a few wagons and backed down. That would have been super risky for scum!me; I should have been looking to mislynch as quickly as possible, because every time I gave town a chance to reconsider, they could have turned onto my scum partners or I could slip. But let's say I did a gambit again, and it earned me even more town credit.

3) So why didn't I lynch Kop? Kop had plenty of town votes, including lane who was an easy scum suspect. My EV table had already revealed that mislynching a villager could lose town the game. Everyone thought I was town at that point. Did I really need more town credit? I could have just seized my victory right then and there.

4) Instead, I turned the focus back onto the PRs. As in, the pool where my claim was (I'll expand on this a bit later). Not just that, I also got the mafia lynched. Even if I were the SK, lynching mafia on Day 2 (in my claim pool at that) would drastically reduce my odds at winning. I should have been aiming at scenarios that could lead to SK win or scum draw - like lynching Kop. Besides, I already explained why SK should not try to be obvtown and risk herself being killed by the mafia.

5) The town game aims to shrink the number of suspects and achieve the safest lynch possible. The scum game is the opposite; they want everyone to be considered a suspect so town could be mislead into making the wrong lynch. Personally I think that's the most reliable scumtell I've found. That's what Bang was doing all day yesterDay. Trying to shift the focus onto the villagers, trying to make us think all PRs could somehow be legit, to make us think it's dangerous to lynch there, rushing a Kop lynch (largest wagon at the time), and last but definitely not least, trying to paint me as a sociopathic scum player who feeds her vanity on townies' trust and toys around with them. I think that's the biggest reason that got him lynched.

tl;dr:

Just as the person in a LYLO who hesitates with the hammer is assumed clear (because as scum they would quickhammer for the win), I should be assumed clear because I had literally a million opportunities to lead a mislynch and win as scum.
Anyone who tries to make me look like scum *now* would look incredibly scummy themselves. So, like. Please don't do that.

[MiniDeathStar]

If Charlie is scum, you shoot Tiger moth. She's my biggest FoS amongst the villagers. Tomorrow it would be between one of us (a confirmed townie) and 2 villagers. I think Jin is town but don't take my word for it.