Open 662: Fire and Ice (Game Over)

[Kmd4390]

Hello. Will read up pretty soon. Anyone wanna fill me in?

[Kmd4390]

Why

[Kmd4390]

Which two and why?

[Kmd4390]

Which two and

why?

[Kmd4390]

Interesting. I've started my read and I'm already feeling the opposite way about Transcend. Not mafia on the other hand doesn't surprise me there, but I don't think that's an alignment tell for him. Have you played with him before?

[Kmd4390]

*shrug*

Through page 6 I don't really have much of a read on him. Weak town if anything. The culted vote was wagoning for the sake of wagoning which doesn't surprise me from him. The vote on realeo, I agree with. And the vote on you, I see where he's coming from but don't necessarily agree that it makes you scum. Who is the fourth? nn?

[Kmd4390]

to be fair this is a weird setup scumhunting wise

Eh, not really. It just makes it easier for scum to genuinely scum hunt.

Gamma, I haven't made it to his nn stuff yet, but I don't see the issue with those first three votes.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, I'm not going to get through here

[Kmd4390]

to be fair this is a weird setup scumhunting wise

Eh, not really. It just makes it easier for scum to genuinely scum hunt.

Gamma, I haven't made it to his nn stuff yet, but I don't see the issue with those first three votes.

there's also no prs or anything except a single doc and there is a large amount of scum

Yeah, but that doesn't really affect scum hunting except that you're more likely to be right on your scum reads.

[Kmd4390]

Reading now...

So, Snark probably would have been my first vote. BK's joke seemed to make him a little unconfortable. Unfortunately, he's usually hard to read though.

BK asking for setup strategy advice was weird when town don't have power roles other than the doc which doesn't help with setup breaking, but it looks like a town thought process trying to use the setup to get ahead. (It's better to leave stuff like post 30 up to the doc though)

Not a fan of Realeo trying to shut down BK's above thought. If there was a way to use the setup, we absolutely should discuss it. It only hurts town not to. He also feels calculated in his so called RVS exit and his reaction to Transcend's vote was pretty defensive. His concerns with notmafia feel fake too. An RVS wagon getting to L-3 is nothing new and notmafia being the one to put it there isn't surprising. Transcend's post 55 is a good point too. I'd probably vote realeo if I was here for all of this.

Transcend is probably town for reaction testing culted.

I could see culted being scum. I get a "trying to fit in" vibe. The OMGUS on realeo sucks too. I've rarely seen the "twisting words" arguement be a good and accurate one. Not scum with realeo though.

BK's answer to Transcend's power town request was very town. These are my two strongest town reads early on.

lo, when you voted realeo, you said it's "only" L-2. Were you expecting your vote to be more than that? If so, were you ok with him being lynched so soon?

I also don't like lo calling gamma scum. Gamma having an issue with a L-2 vote was fine whether lo considers that RVS or not.

Gamma wagon sucks. I liked it better when everyone was voting realeo. I'm finding myself agreeing with gamma that there is scum on his wagon, just not who they are.

Realeo, can you elaborate on your meta unvote on gamma?

Transcend, do you have reasons why realeo is town? Because the whole lynchbait thing is just a cool way to say too scummy to be scum.

Snark, you implied that you were scumreading lo and transcend and appeared to have a stronger read on lo. Why did you vote transcend over lo and why did it take someone else doing it first to get you to vote transcend? And if gamma can't be town, why didn't you switch to him?
^just noticed transcend already some of said this. *shrug*. I'll leave it here anyway. I hadn't made it that far when I typed that.

My scum reads on lo and culted are both softening.

Culted, is your secret tell on nn that he gave 3 scum reads with a "/" pairing two of them but didn't do that with the other?

Nn's 263 kind of sucked. He's got no reason to be paranoid about being lynched in five hours and putting colors in a post isn't "trying too hard". He also failed to notice that realeo used colors earlier.

I actually like josh questioning town reads on him, ironically enough.

K, I'm done

Readslist:
Town:
Kmd

Town reads:
Transcend
BK
Josh

Weaker town reads:
Gamma
Rory
Notmafia

Null:
Clemency

Weaker scum reads:
lo
Culted
Nn

Scum reads:
Realeo
Snark

Vote Realeo

[Kmd4390]

lo, fair enough. That satisfies my concerns.

[Kmd4390]

My advice would be don't take anything on the wiki as fact. It's just a bunch of stuff that some people said. It's no better than just asking around. Sure, it may help. But don't get caught up in what's on the wiki must be true. Effort is playstyle, not an alignment tell for most people.

[Kmd4390]

Not a fan of Realeo trying to shut down BK's above thought. If there was a way to use the setup, we absolutely should discuss it. It only hurts town not to. He also feels calculated in his so called RVS exit and his reaction to Transcend's vote was pretty defensive. His concerns with notmafia feel fake too. An RVS wagon getting to L-3 is nothing new and notmafia being the one to put it there isn't surprising. Transcend's post 55 is a good point too. I'd probably vote realeo if I was here for all of this.

On your point about "BK's above thought"
1] I am skeptical of setup speccing because I have won a scum game by manipulating setup speccing. The Purge for reference.

2] I have lost a town game because town (imo) is too invested in setup speccing. Mislead 2 is for reference.

3]

Fire and Ice is not a new setup.

If there is a breaking strategy, I expect a) I would know it or b) Open is a moderated forum. Why would Llama give a broken setup? I check the game history and it has been replayed. If the game is broken, I expect it would be fixed (see Duck! Duck! Goose! on how they fixed the setup by adding 1 extra PGO). In Mislead 2 + The Purge, town invested too much in setup speccing and forget the scumhunting part.

TL:DR; I see no way how setup speccing will be helping the town. Even worse, setup speccing is usually NAI because the casual rule of "effort is NAI"

Other has been discussed.

Let us say that there are a lot of things that trigger me in RVS. Can I have your argumentation of me mafia beside RVS?

1) And that's why it makes sense for town to actively discuss it in a game where it makes sense to.

2) Right. You guys probably spent too little time on scum hunting. There's a necessary balance. (Reading your point 3 now, it sounds like that's exactly what happened)

3) I'm not disputing this. Read my post again if you think otherwise.

And for the bottom part, sure, it's been discussed. Doesn't mean I'm satisfied. And I don't consider any of that RVS and am frankly shocked that you are shrugging it off as that. I mean yeah, it's your reaction to RVS stuff, but that doesn't make it RVS itself. Your play since that hasn't done anything to change my mind.

------------------

BK's point on nn, when combined with my own concerns, is enough that I can definitely sheep that if needed, especially if transcend and gamma are the only other choices.

Josh, as someone who works 2 or 3 consecutive 16 hour days without internet access at work (Thank God I've been on vacation since Thanksgiving), I get having to work and sleep. But while you're back, some thoughts would be cool.

Nn, there are two ways to look at realeo not lazily voting you. Well, actually three with this setup. There's your version. There's him being scum who doesn't want to look bad by being on your wagon. Or with the two teams, he could be scum legitimately trying to sort you. I wouldn't write him off just for that.

[Kmd4390]

Transcend, I don't remember you answering why Realeo is town other than "too scummy to be scum" aka lynchbait. And why is Culted obvtown? I'm not the first to ask, but you didn't answer.

Rory, I'd like you to skim nn's ISO in this game where he was scum and tell me if you still believe he'd back off just because he's scum.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Nn (responding to post 400), you and I disagree on how scum will play then. I'd expect them to honestly hunt the other team, not just randomly go after people. As for the second part, I'm not speaking to you like you're town. I just know my reads aren't 100% perfect so even if I was more confident you are scum than I am, I could be wrong. Even if I'm not, see the first part of this paragraph. What are your thoughts on the content of what I said? Also, you say Culted isn't playing the same as in past games. Does this include scum games? (Please don't answer that last one if the games are ongoing. Culted's post shows that may be an issue here). And in that past game you keep talking about, did anyone town read you specifically for saying you are VI? The problem with self meta is you are aware of it and that pretty much invalidates it. If anything, it's scummy because you can be manipulating it. If you've been called town for something in the past, you could be doing it here as scum just to get the same result.

Josh, do you have a read on Rory?

BK, can you be more specific about Rory? What in his ISO looks bad? Also, I was waiting for gamma to answer you first because it was directed at him, but afterthe first scum flip, you can find scum hunting only one team. Before that, not so much.

I don't like nn playing the VI card. He seems perfectly competent to me. Don't like the wagon hop for a bad reason when he's the leading wagon either, especially after implying he thinks scum don't care who is lynched as long as it's not them. Post 443 reeks too. Not "why am I scum", but "why am I linked to rory". Guys, I didn't see flailing when it was pointed out, but now I do.

[Quote=nn30"]3) I didn't know you had the 2nd most amount of votes. I'm in a bunch of games - I don't have the time to keep track of this information. 
[/quote]

On an out of game note, if this is true, you're doing all of your games a disservice. You should cut back on games if you can't keep track of simple things like where wagons are. I say this as someone who once played about 20 games at a time. Now I'm in two.

[Kmd4390]

Transcend, what about realeo? (3rd request)

[Kmd4390]

Just a gut honestly

That doesn't really answer my lynchbait question though...

[Kmd4390]

No. If it's useless for town but might help scum, don't say it. Only if it's useful for town

[Kmd4390]

Not everything is good to know though. For example, if I think I know who the doc is, I'm sure as hell not saying so. That's basic mafia.

[Kmd4390]

It would be so much easier if that was all one post but...

The BK thing looked town because true setup breaking benefits town and he was inviting people to look at a way to do that. Unless he already had an idea of how to manipulate it, it's a genuine attempt to help us. And in a setup that can't be broken, there's no way to manipulate it.

Transcend's reaction test was calling a vote a hammer when it wasn't. It's town because if he got a genuine town reaction from you, he'd be reducing the lynch pool which hurts scum.

Interacting with gamma really didn't help much. He didn't seem to understand what I was saying.

The point on nn I was talking about was the one about him townreading Transcend until Transcend voted him which is when he OMGUS voted.

Josh, I was just using an extreme example to make my point.

[Kmd4390]

Culted,

It's not about intelligence or experience with BK. If he's played this setup before, you have a point though. Do you have evidence of that?

*shrug*. I don't necessarily think it was a good reaction test either, but my point stands regardless.

On nn, it's more about the switch to Transcend for me than about his own lynch. He's perfectly cool with Transcend being town for meta reasons until Transcend votes him. Then suddenly Transcend is scummy? I don't buy it. It seems more like blatant OMGUS than genuine suspicion. The progression just isn't there and the only thing that changed is Transcend suspected nn.

[Kmd4390]

i would just say it because this is not a new setup

Okay. If scum kill the same person the kills cancel.

Yeah that's useless to town and should have been kept quiet...

[Kmd4390]

*shrug*

I didn't realize it myself.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote nn30

Realeo lynch isn't happening and I'm satisfied with nn as the lynch.

[Kmd4390]

Did I miss something? Even skimming your ISO now, I don't see it

[Kmd4390]

I didn't comment on your RVS

[Kmd4390]

Also, I responded to you here:

Not a fan of Realeo trying to shut down BK's above thought. If there was a way to use the setup, we absolutely should discuss it. It only hurts town not to. He also feels calculated in his so called RVS exit and his reaction to Transcend's vote was pretty defensive. His concerns with notmafia feel fake too. An RVS wagon getting to L-3 is nothing new and notmafia being the one to put it there isn't surprising. Transcend's post 55 is a good point too. I'd probably vote realeo if I was here for all of this.

On your point about "BK's above thought"
1] I am skeptical of setup speccing because I have won a scum game by manipulating setup speccing. The Purge for reference.

2] I have lost a town game because town (imo) is too invested in setup speccing. Mislead 2 is for reference.

3]

Fire and Ice is not a new setup.

If there is a breaking strategy, I expect a) I would know it or b) Open is a moderated forum. Why would Llama give a broken setup? I check the game history and it has been replayed. If the game is broken, I expect it would be fixed (see Duck! Duck! Goose! on how they fixed the setup by adding 1 extra PGO). In Mislead 2 + The Purge, town invested too much in setup speccing and forget the scumhunting part.

TL:DR; I see no way how setup speccing will be helping the town. Even worse, setup speccing is usually NAI because the casual rule of "effort is NAI"

Other has been discussed.

Let us say that there are a lot of things that trigger me in RVS. Can I have your argumentation of me mafia beside RVS?

1) And that's why it makes sense for town to actively discuss it in a game where it makes sense to.

2) Right. You guys probably spent too little time on scum hunting. There's a necessary balance. (Reading your point 3 now, it sounds like that's exactly what happened)

3) I'm not disputing this. Read my post again if you think otherwise.

And for the bottom part, sure, it's been discussed. Doesn't mean I'm satisfied. And I don't consider any of that RVS and am frankly shocked that you are shrugging it off as that. I mean yeah, it's your reaction to RVS stuff, but that doesn't make it RVS itself. Your play since that hasn't done anything to change my mind.

------------------

BK's point on nn, when combined with my own concerns, is enough that I can definitely sheep that if needed, especially if transcend and gamma are the only other choices.

Josh, as someone who works 2 or 3 consecutive 16 hour days without internet access at work (Thank God I've been on vacation since Thanksgiving), I get having to work and sleep. But while you're back, some thoughts would be cool.

Nn, there are two ways to look at realeo not lazily voting you. Well, actually three with this setup. There's your version. There's him being scum who doesn't want to look bad by being on your wagon. Or with the two teams, he could be scum legitimately trying to sort you. I wouldn't write him off just for that.

So you acting like I didn't rubs me the wrong way. If you weren't satisfied by my response, that's one thing. But you spoke as if I ignored you completely which just isn't the case.

[Kmd4390]

Kmd want to tell the class why youre voting me?

Already did.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote nn30

Realeo lynch isn't happening and I'm satisfied with nn as the lynch.

Not a fan.

Feels like ScumCompromistLynch.jpg

Not sure what do with my previous town read of you now.

Did you even go back and see why I'm scumreading you? Also, you do realize town needs to compromise more than scum does to avoid a no lynch, right?

Realeo, no it's not overkill. You called it RVS. It wasn't.

[Kmd4390]

BK, fair enough on Rory. That post where he says Gamma and Realeo are scum and they other team is probably inactive kind of sounds like only hunting one team too. Why is his post about Transcend scummy though?

[Kmd4390]

General question to more experienced peiple: are scum likely to be more concerned with taking out the opposing scum team than town?

Depends on the player, but generally if they're smart, yeah. Why'd you ask this question?

[Kmd4390]

Josh, Rory would just be a compromise for me. Nn is still my preferred lynch. And no, nothing has really changed. For what it's worth, I don't have a problem with Rory pressing for you to answer him. His "you've got to be joking" post is bad, but everything else since then not so much.

I also agree with Josh that it's time to consolidate before deadline sneaks up on us. Everyone not on a wagon should get on one. We have four right now which is too many so one or two of the smaller ones needs to dissolve.

BK, confirmation bias is basically being so sure that you're right that you think things support your arguement when they may or may not. In mafia, say you scum read someone. Confirmation bias is seeing scummy behavior in all of their posts that may or may not be there where someone town reading them also dealing with confirmation bias may see town intent in the same posts.

[Kmd4390]

Gamma's "lynch me" stuff is making me second guess my town read a little...

[Kmd4390]

*shrug*

The whole lynch me for the good of the town dance always sounds fake to me. Could just be frustration though which is null.

[Kmd4390]

What association do I have with nn30? Do you just mean my many interactions with him?

@mod vc please btw unless someone has been keeping track

Yeah vote count would definitely be cool. I lost track

[Kmd4390]

Looks like the Transcend wagon shifted onto nn.

So nn, rory, and gamma look like the choices. That also happens to be my order of preference between the three.

[Kmd4390]

Gamma, are you townreading Rory? You don't seem to be showing any interest one way or the other. That nn reasoning is weak, so I'm curious why you didn't openly weigh the options between him and Rory before switching.

[Kmd4390]

I was curious why you didn't openly weigh the options before voting for reasoning that you admit is weak. Kinda answered that in my last post.

[Kmd4390]

When did you start townreading Rory, lo? You haven't mentioned him since you voted him

[Kmd4390]

Yeah, but when you voted gamma, you compared him to nn, not Rory.

[Kmd4390]

So you didn't think the Rory lynch was going through? Or you're just more sure of gamma? Just want to clarify.

[Kmd4390]

Rory, getting reads isn't really any harder in this setup. Just certain tells don't apply. For example, genuine scumhunting isn't necessarily town. But see BK questioning nn's town read on him and then forgetting that it's a 2 scum team setup? That's the kind of thing that comes from town.

I feel like I got dumber for having to read BK vs nn. Neither of you has a good point. BK, nn was probably legitimately trying to understand your posting which isn't scummy. Nn, scum can be impulsive too. (And as I keep reading, I see BK said that last part word for word lol)

I still don't understand the scum reads on not mafia. He gives us very little to work with which is normal for him.

Nn seems pretty satisfied to jump any new wagon to avoid his own lynch. I think realeo was the only wagon he didn't join.

Oh, a hammer. Guess I should submit now to beat a thread lock. Not done reading yet.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, now I'm done reading. Nothing changed.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Snark

I'll read up later. Doing Christmas stuff now

[Kmd4390]

Grinch

[Kmd4390]

Josh, entirely possible that you are right about Rory being the kill target. Only problem is that there are too many possibilities and no way to confirm. We can't really make assumptions based on it.

Can you guys explain the bk votes? I remember him feeling pretty obvtown Day 1.

I've been townreading josh, but his insistence that Rory is town makes me think he might be scum who tried killing Rory. Worth noting in case Josh flips scum at some point because Rory probably would be town in that case.

lo's 886 feels like an overreaction. I didn't read BK's post as trying to make lo sound stupid or anything like that. If anyone sounds that way, it's lo in that very post.

Realeo, I'm doing well. Thanks for asking.

So my best guess for scum is Snark, Realeo, Culted, and one of Rory or Josh.

[Kmd4390]

Josh, the first thing that stood out about culted was the "trying to fit in" vibe I mentioned followed by a terrible OMGUS vote on realeo for supposedly twisting words. Nothing since that has changed my mind.

Realeo, it seems like josh's main focus when entering the thread today was his theory that Rory is town for being, in his opinion, the most likely double NK target. Someone in this game is confirmed town from scum's point of view. Josh>Rory looks like the biggest read change in that direction that stands out to me. So if Rory flips town later on, that would support the idea that Josh is scum who tried and failed at killing Rory last night. And to your other question, my reads list is independent of that and more reliant on my prior reads. I was starting to come around to Rory being scum late Day 1. Josh is just there in case that is wrong. He'd be worth looking into in that case. And to 924, I wasn't reading it as an intentional act to tell everyone that Rory is confirmed town to him. More that maybe he was scum with a genuine scum read on Rory that he now knows to be wrong and he feels he needs to explain it.

To the theory that Gamma was the NK target: If that's why there is no wagon on him today, his wagon from Day 1 should absolutely be scrutinized. I'm curious why realeo didn't immediately do that when bringing this up.

BK, is 935 serious or sarcastic. I actually can't tell.

Gamma, you were mostly a town read of mine Day 1. I remember being concerned with something (was it ATE?), but you weren't a scum read for me. I briefly second guessed myself, but I wanted realeo or nn lynched. Looking at the vote count realeo posted, it looks like transcend, lo, and rory are the ones who were after you. So I'd be curious where their suspicion went. I don't think Rory has posted though (at least to this point in my read). So Transcend/lo? *shrug*. (Oh, not mafia voted there too). I agree with BK's take on this if Gamma was the target, except that I don't see it as a point against rory, and am interested why lo, transcend, and not mafia lost interest in that wagon today.
^Realeo, on the above, I'm not at all sure why you arrive at a vote on me based on this. Snark was always well above Gamma on my scumlist. If anything, you should be wondering why Snark got my vote over you. (Ok, I see that you misunderstand my earlier take on gamma. fair enough)

BK, why is Snark town under your theory?

Culted, why do you seem so reserved today?

I've got to be honest here. I think there is way too much speculation on who was NK'd. We have no way of knowing. The theories regarding gamma are good, but remember they are just theories and can't be proven until the game is over.

lo doesn't make much sense as a NK target unless scum were trying not to double kill and both picked the same person which is a stretch. But if that happened, again I agree with the consensus that Gamma makes sense in that case.

Ok, I'm caught up. Nothing convinced me to change my vote. Hopefully this slows down some.

[Kmd4390]

I really don't get this BK wagon.

[Kmd4390]

I don't know where to go with this.

I'm gonna safely only hard town read Josh for now.

Why? And has your read on gamma changed at all? If so, why?

[Kmd4390]

Realeo, not everything that's noteworthy means a vote needs to move.

Aris, scum should be shooting for scum because it eliminates the threat of a NK if they can take out the other team. It helps them just as much as it helps town.

[Kmd4390]

If it was 100% the same, I'd be voting you.

[Kmd4390]

In about 2.5 hours, I'll be:

V/LA until Dec 26

I can check in a few times, but any significant reading or frequent posting from me will be on hold during that time.

[Kmd4390]

It's interesting how Rory and KMD never correspond with each other?

*shrug*. He didn't stand out to me until he got wagoned.

[Kmd4390]

Any new thoughts?

[Kmd4390]

What about you KMD?

Nope. It's pretty much Christmas posts after my last content post.

[Kmd4390]

Interesting

[Kmd4390]

Jesus Christ! It never cross to your mind to vote Ari?

Not until after I said interesting and at that point it wouldn't have applied pressure properly.

Aris, can you link all fire and ice games you've played?

[Kmd4390]

Texcat's game from earlier this year

...
I thought I'd played in 2 others, but they aren't a thing apparently. I distinctly remember playing one offsite that somehow never existed.
I also hosted one offsite (it's not really relevant here).

Regardless, my points stand. You'll see me shine as the days go on and I can VCA properly (and by "shine" I mean "contribute more").

Skimmed your first 25 posts there. You gave quite a few reads and asked some good questions. It's completely different than here. I have a guess why that would have nothing to do with alignment, but if you don't say it I can't assume it so this looks kind of bad.

[Kmd4390]

Can you give at least quick one liner kind of reasoning on those reads?

[Kmd4390]

That's... pretty weak to say the least...

[Kmd4390]

And SS did defend Gamma D1 multiple times, which would be kind of odd for scum to do when there were 4 other players scum-reading him. There's some town-cred to be earned there if Gamma is town.

White knighting isn't odd. It's actually pretty common.

[Kmd4390]

BK, claiming a town read on a widely suspected player isn't necessarily what I would call a "clever tactic". It's basic scum play to know that you can't just jump every single wagon.

[Kmd4390]

UNVOTE:

what is it with fire and ice games and a massive amounto f replace outs. pretty much every slot in my game had more than 1 person in it.

It's every game lately and it's ridiculous. There need to be bans on joining new games after replacing out.

[Kmd4390]

If there wasn't a doc in this game I'd say just do the Mod a favor and lynch his slot. There's a decent enough chance he's scum anyway.

[Kmd4390]

Yeah, notice I didn't move my vote. I'm just extremely frustrated with replace outs lately.

[Kmd4390]

Looking forward to the catch up

[Kmd4390]

Kuro's 1148, 1162, 1195, and 1209 have an Amished tell in them. I'm still not 100% sold on the accuracy of that tell, but it stands out.

Culted, what didn't you like about Kuro's first few posts?

BK, I'd think sorting Snark WOULD be a priority right now. He's one of the three most likely lynches today. You seem to lean town on him and it doesn't make much sense to me so I wanted to discuss it but you seem to be trying to shrug me off now. I mean I understand Rory/Kuro is your focus now, but if that starts to fizzle and you need to compromise (and a look at the recent vote counts shows you're the only one on it now), it's good to have a better idea of your Snark stance and where it's coming from. Your town lean is based on a lot of assumptions.

Transcend's reaction to Kuro feels natural to me. Natural doesn't mean town in this setup, but I don't see what Kuro sees.

[Kmd4390]

Amished had a theory that players who talk bad about the players they replace are usually scum. There was a time when it would happen and everyone would go "OMG AMISHED TELL TURBO LYNCH GOGOGOGO" but then everyone was aware of it so the tell wasn't as good anymore.

[Kmd4390]

Ah. Did you think I was going out of my way to do it? Did it not sound genuine?

I kind of want to know so I can not be so obviously scum next time I'm scum.

Preview Edit: No Transcend. Don't even type. Just press space, then the Submit Button.

Towniest post from this slot all game.

We should probably get back on topic instead of just chasing our tails by the wag.

[Kmd4390]

Way*

[Kmd4390]

That's cool with me. Just don't go overboard with the spamming lol

[Kmd4390]

Ah. Did you think I was going out of my way to do it? Did it not sound genuine?

I kind of want to know so I can not be so obviously scum next time I'm scum.

Preview Edit: No Transcend. Don't even type. Just press space, then the Submit Button.

Towniest post from this slot all game.

We should probably get back on topic instead of just chasing our tails by the wag.

Gunslingers Mafia, I said the same thing as scum and I'm not going to hesitate to do it again if it works.

Stop

[Kmd4390]

BK, I still think it's a bad idea to assume scum tried to kill someone specific. The logic makes sense and everything, but if it's wrong, you're basing everything on a wrong assumption. And there's no way to prove it ever. Without that, your case is that lo voted you for maybe looking like you're trying to blend in which is weak. lo very well could have been scum, but your case just isn't as strong as you think it is. Like I get where you're coming from but you're assuming way too much.

[Kmd4390]

That's fine. I don't like the way Rory/Radja played my slot. I thought about it and if I were another player, I'd only not vote him because there are much better people to vote.

Like Snarky.

Or Transcend.

stfu amished

^see guys? it's a real thing

[Kmd4390]

V/LA until Jan 1

Working 2:30PM to 7AM each of the next 3 days. No internet access at work. So the best I can do is check in before work every day.

[Kmd4390]

Three 17 hour shifts? Do you know how to love yourself?

It's how I get so much time off

Will read up from the parking lot. Doesn't look like I've missed much

[Kmd4390]

So all I really missed was Aris realizing Snark is scummy. k. Be back tomorrow

[Kmd4390]

Vote Kuro

The Rory case was better than anything I came up with on my own the first two days. Kuro's entrance wasn't the towniest ever, especially with all those Amished tell posts. This works for me for right now.

On Realeo, I decided to lay off him Day 2 a little just to see how he played without pressure. He looked a little townier and my early issues with him may have been personality. He's a POE scum read at most right now and I'm just not comfortable voting that.

Aris might be scum. I didn't like the inaccurate self meta he gave. The "I'm doing nothing because lol setup" turned out to not match up with the town fire and ice game he linked. It may have been a genuine lapse in memory, but it still shows a vastly different type of play from him.

Havingfitz is probably the closest I have to a scum read after that. I had lo as gut scum on my catch up, but lo satisfied any actual concerns I had. I'd vote here over a town read at deadline, but I don't have anything solid enough to vote.

I'm still solidly town reading BK and Transcend. So that leaves Not mafia, gamma, and josh as a trio that probably contains scum if I'm not perfect on naming the 4 scum above. Of those three, josh is the towniest to me and not mafia the scummiest.

-------------------

Gamma, scum should be shooting for each other. Culted had a decent chance of being scum, but maybe they picked up a doc tell and that was why they shot there. I could see either of those two things. I doubt it had anything to do with info and I doubt they took that shot looking for a VT.

BK, I don't believe I've ever played with Culted.

[Kmd4390]

I'll hold you to it

[Kmd4390]

Kuro, there's nothing wrong with giving town reads. The Amished tell has nothing to do with that. It's about the way you came in and told us how badly Rory played and how scummy he acted. It's almost like saying the slot was only scummy because he sucked and we should all ignore it and just focus on your play.

[Kmd4390]

Convince me.

[Kmd4390]

Fuck man, now we have to start trying

I'll he helpful this phase! Lets put a Wednesday deadline on that.

I'll hold you to it

Unvote, Vote Aris

[Kmd4390]

V/LA for work again. Back on Friday night

[Kmd4390]

BK, I had stronger scum reads on other players than on Rory. Those players have mostly died and flipped town.

Realeo, scum don't need to try to stay busy in this setup. They have another team to catch.

[Kmd4390]

Realeo, scum don't need to try to stay busy in this setup. They have another team to catch.

If that's the case, that means that town would be player who remain inactive.

Which means, according to KMD, inactive player are town.

Because inactive player are town, KMD would never lynch inactive player.

Oops, I forgot. Kmd lead a lynch wagon on SS, who is inactive. My bad.

Spoiler: Notabene

Sorry if you're offended, but in D3, I am 100% in #sarcasmgamestrong mode

Um no. Inactivty usually has nothing to do with alignment.

Realeo, scum don't need to try to stay busy in this setup. They have another team to catch.

And how does this argument relate to my wagon @ Transcend? If he's faking busyness, he's town?

It doesn't.

[Kmd4390]

Appreciated. So let me get this right, the case on me is based on two notions:
1. Rory was scummy.
2. I amished.

Point number one, I can't really do anything about. Point number two, I would find silly to only go on me on that point alone. I will say that I've played more than one scum game before on here and I've never amished. For me to start now wouldn't make much sense, given I don't really know anyone this game and this is an untested crowd for me.

Are there any other reasons?

I don't really like the mentality that #1 can't be used. Like I get that you can't really defend against it and it sucks and that's one more reason why it sucks when people replace out of games, but it's still true. Also, the fact that you've been scum before doesn't disprove anything. How many of those were games where you replaced in and the slot was scummy and/or bad before you showed up? Those would be the only games that would factor in.

--------------

Realeo, you and I are talking about two different things. I wasn't responding to your Transcend case. But to answer your question about my opinion on it:
-by showing that he skimmed rather than reading isos, you showed that he's lazy. Not that he's scum, but that he's lazy. *shrug*
-I don't think it's unreasonable that he changed his mind on a read
-I don't see why you're so sure he's faking anything.

[Kmd4390]

Realeo, you and I are talking about two different things. I wasn't responding to your Transcend case. But to answer your question about my opinion on it:
-by showing that he skimmed rather than reading isos, you showed that he's lazy. Not that he's scum, but that he's lazy. *shrug*
-I don't think it's unreasonable that he changed his mind on a read
-I don't see why you're so sure he's faking anything.

I DIDN'T SAY HE IS LAZYY!!!

I said he fake it,

to avoid suspicion

. You never respond to me about that.

I disagree.

Kmd, is your game plan is to white knight Transcend and mysteriously deadline bus Transcend in the future?

I don't see myself voting Transcend in the future.

KMD, if you are town, stop skimreading my case. I am flustered that whatever I say, you just rebuttal it.

I didn't skim it. I read it. Your arguement is that he didn't put time into the ISOs therefore they are fake and he's scum. I think it shows nothing more than that he doesn't put as much time into mafia as someone like you. This is his playstyle. Playing like that doesn't make him scum. It may not make him the best player (sorry Transcend) but it doesn't make him scum either.

To 1541, I personally think that the Aris meta point about not doing anything here, blaming it on the setup, and then doing things in his other fire and ice game he played, is the scummiest thing in the game right now. Your Transcend case does nothing for me. Sorry but I just don't think he's faking his reads. He hasn't put effort into them and I wish he would, but that's just how some people play unfortunately (see not mafia). And you're right that I'll probably switch back to kuro, but it's not entirely because of the Amished tell. It's partly that, partly BK's Rory case, partly process of elimination because my scum reads were wrong and there are only so many possibilities left, and partly because no one seems to care about the blatant differences in Aris's play here compared to the other fire and ice game and his account of both games.

[Kmd4390]

Good vote

WAGON GOGOGOGOGO

[Kmd4390]

and before I take my dog poop, what do you think about Transcend faking he got lynched? You can't buy that.

P-Edit: Very funny, 3 Gammas lol.

Transcend is just trolling. He thought he was being funny.

Can I do this game tomorrow?

Your self imposed deadline was 3 days ago. So Transcend and I are looking for help lynching you. You're too late. Nothing personal.

Seriously though. Can I have a counter wagon? I don't see a lucrative one.

The Aris wagon is now accepting applications:

Aris Wagon Official Application

Thank you for your interest for inclusion in the Aris bandwagon. We'll ask you a few questions and if we are satisfied, you will be given up to three interviews. At that time, you may be asked to complete a drug test and sign for approval for a background check (Your cooperation is not required). You may skip any steps in this process by switching your vote to Aris and keeping it there until he is lynched. All questions may be directed to the head of the complaint department, Transcend.

1. Are you scum?

1a. If you answered yes, are you fire or ice? If no, skip to question 2.

1b. Who is your scumbuddy

1c. Are you interested in eliminating the other team?

2. Why do you want to lynch Aris. Note: Aris Wagon Company Policy states that you are not required to answer this question. An answer of "omitted" will not disqualify you from voting Aris.

3. Why have you not voted Aris already?

4. Is guacamole town?

5. What other wagons have you joined and what were your reasons for leaving? (List up to 4 most recent)
1_____________________________________________
2_____________________________________________
3_____________________________________________
4_____________________________________________

6. Is this your first time lynching scum? If not, tell us about a time you lynched scum in the past.

7. What is your exact town win percentage?

8. What are your best and worst qualities when lynching scum?

9. Give us one reason why we can trust that you will be reliable in keeping your vote on Aris?

10. Aris, while scum, is still a good dude. So tell us your favorite thing about Aris.

Thank you for your time. Your application may take up to three days to process. You may follow up on the application, but are not required to do so. We currently have

four

positions to fill, so please return this application as soon as possible. We look forward to meeting with you and hope that you'll be a valuable asset to the Official Aris Bandwagon!

[Kmd4390]

You gave like one kinda half decent paragraph and that's pretty much it. I don't see the effort that I saw in the game you linked.

[Kmd4390]

I do. And I still believe that. This is more a meta case than an activity one. Nice avatar.

[Kmd4390]

It's also not inactivity on Aris' part here. It's lack of content in his posts. Lack of commitment to most any stances. He's posting but he's...I don't know, just existing if that makes sense. Coasting may or may not be the right word here, but it's not the same play as when he was town in this setup.

[Kmd4390]

Anybody who applies for the Aris wagon today will get an interview within 24 hours

[Kmd4390]

Go for it.

And some of us are doing just fine without scum flips. Or at least coming up with something. Accuracy has been pretty bad, but at least a few people are trying.

[Kmd4390]

Like I said, accuracy sucks but a few of us are trying. There are things to look at.

[Kmd4390]

I mean it's something. It's not like there's nothing to talk about. You haven't been proactive in any way and what little real discussion there's been, you haven't been very involved in it

[Kmd4390]

I mean if everyone is wrong then by all means show why and show who is pushing bad cases intentionally as scum and stuff like that. Like this is basic mafia. There's always something to figure out.

[Kmd4390]

I brought it up but it's come up quite a bit since that.

[Kmd4390]

Lol not often someone says I'm under the radar.

[Kmd4390]

Fire mafia and hard town?

[Kmd4390]

Oh

[Kmd4390]

What. The. Fuck. There was a time when self hammering as town would stop mods from letting you in their games.

Maybe he's scum trolling but I doubt it.

[Kmd4390]

I just find that discussion should be reserved for end game discussion, not for twilight.

That's interesting...

[Kmd4390]

I like the idea of going for ice mafia for two reasons:
A) Eliminate one NK
B) It's easier with more info (BK's flip)

I can definitely follow your logic for Aris and have been scumreading him anyway, but I want to ISO BK myself.

Can you go into more detail why you don't think gamma was the failed NK? Is it because scum had to be shooting for each other? If so, who was still scumreading gamma and BK?

I want to put more work into this game, but unfortunately it may have to wait a few days...

[Kmd4390]

What is the point of that without the analysis?

[Kmd4390]

ok

[Kmd4390]

Me personally, I'm not confident at all. My reads have been the worst they've been in a long time. This game has been horrible. But I also don't trust scum to shoot each other and eliminating a team/kill is huge. And like I said, more info makes it easier and that's a decent crutch to use to be more sure of a scum lynch if we go for ice.

I can see scum BK giving the real failed NK because scum should want to lynch the other scum team. Whoever they shot, they knew to be town. If they can piggyback someone else's logic to "confirm" that player to be town in thread, they won't be lynching confirmed town from their PoV. I mean, it's not by any means a guarantee that gamma was the NK and I'm still in the mindset that we won't know who it was until postgame. But there is absolutely logic to the theory that it was gamma still. The way he tunneled havingfitz has me thinking it probably wasn't havingfitz, but other than that his flip doesn't give a whole lot of solid answers on that.

Your point 2 actually makes a lot of sense though. He should have been shooting for fire scum so that makes a lot of sense. And following that logic, along with the idea that he probably wouldn't help lynch confirmed town (Transcend), the target was probably Snark (doubt it) or a living player. So if we can nail down who it was, it's still huge. But I don't have a clue still.

[Kmd4390]

Yeah that's kind of out of nowhere lol

V/LA for work from 2pm today until Thursday

(Again, Wednesday is my next day off, but will be busy with 3 kids in the house. Thursday is the same but I'd imagine I can find some time to catch up if needed by then)

[Kmd4390]

The more I think it, kmd/Kuroi seems plausible

Did you forget who brought up the Amished tell?

[Kmd4390]

The more I think it, kmd/Kuroi seems plausible

Did you forget who brought up the Amished tell?

Who brought it just for luls? Yeah. I remember it. The last time I challenge someone present a counter-wagon, he brought Aristo as wagon instead of Kuroi...

How coincedental

*shrug*

I think it's pretty obvious I'd have lynched either and probably still would.

[Kmd4390]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't remember that wagon being RVS.

[Kmd4390]

Ummm

[Kmd4390]

I kinda don't wanna argue semantics, but kinda feel like you were trying to shrug off Alisae's thought.

[Kmd4390]

I kinda don't wanna argue semantics, but kinda feel like you were trying to shrug off Alisae's thought.

It's more to "

Your point is?

"

When I saw the votecount is 1.1, I'm not sure what Alisae trying to reach.

I mean, there's a doc, a town, a scum, and 2 more alive player in that wagon.

Your conclusion?

And either no fire scum or at least one of not mafia / havingfitz is fire.

It's actually a pretty interesting vote count.

[Kmd4390]

Realeo's 1844 is a gross misrep of Alisae's point. Like this is how I'm reading it:
Alisae: Hey realeo why'd you only analyze one NK?
Realeo: WTF so any analysis at all is scummy?
I get his point that the gamma kill analysis is based on BK and I fully get the logic in that part of the analysis, but that post was ugly. I also don't get the outrage over semantics when Alisae called his analysis night kill analysis and not night kill association analysis or whatever it actually was.

Scumslip : Why I am not considered as a correct Fire Mafia wagon? Because KMD knows I don't

Um, you being fire was exactly what I was implying. If not mafia and havingfitz are town, it means no fire were on your wagon. That's the point I was making. The idea that you may have made it to L-2 on day 1 with zero help from fire mafia means there's a good chance that that's because you are fire. I didn't pursue it all that much because not mafia and havingfitz haven't flipped yet and I'd rather hit ice today.

No seriously though. Go get a sleep. It's 11pm in America, ye?

People sleep at 11pm?

Kmd attacked Rory/Kuroi from get go, but never actually voted him but at the beginning of D3. Even in D3, he still presented Aristo as wagon.

Actually, the only point I had against Rory was sheeping BK, who flipped scum. He was like my #4ish suspect before Kuro Amished'd. Aris is probably a little scummier, but like I said, I would have supported a lynch on either and that should be obvious from my posts.

ike if I were KMD, I would push Kuroi. Especially if I sumread Rory pretty much from get go.

By this logic, I should be voting you or havingfitz. My first suspect list was you/nn/culted/lo if I'm not mistaken. I added in one of rory/josh after nn's flip, BK's rory case, and josh's obsession over the idea that rory was the NK. You need a reread if you think otherwise.

Unless KMD is ultra-patient person in real life, this is also probably White Flag gambit. 

I'm actually pretty patient, but this isn't about patience. It's about the fact that I haven't had time to ISO BK and check who was scumreading him and Gamma recently. I've been working more than normal, going to court, taking care of three kids, and my wife just had surgery so she's been home which means no time to sit on my phone analyzing mafia games. Also, what is a white flag gambit?

And KMD's desire to go fore Ice Mafia...is alerting, to say the least. I'm still convinced that going for Fire Mafia is more optimal (since we have 2 shots to get it right) but I don't think it is necesarrily "fire mafia shooing away?"

I actually put a lot of time into thinking about this while I was at work.

Right now, we are 4:2:1.
---Lynch fire = 4:1:1
-----NKs both town = 2:1:1. Anyone who wants to be in this situation is crazy.
-----NK's both scum =4:1. Cool
-----NK's town + scum = 3:1 Cool.
---Lynch ice = 4:2 with 3:2 after a NK. That's not easy, but it's managable.

But actually now that it's in front of me, the fire one is better. You're right. It's risky which is what I was stuck on at work thinking about it. Like that 2:1:1 scenario was stuck in my head. But random odds give us a 66% chance to be in a better spot lynching fire than lynching ice.

@KMD: Where's your scumread @ Kuroi?

Same place it was yesterday.

[Kmd4390]

<- won't be hammering. still think not mafia is town. Anyone got a case saying otherwise or is it just "lol not saying much so scum"?

[Kmd4390]

I hope this isn't what you are calling VCA:

skimmed the mod's ISO.
Wouldn't be surprised if both you and Not_Mafia were scum.

Because if it is, there isn't nearly enough analysis there to sway me.

[Kmd4390]

And that makes them partners? With no context? Like what if one was a really bad OMGUS vote or something?

[Kmd4390]

So any RVS OMGUS vote means the two players involved are scum together? I never knew mafia was so easy.

[Kmd4390]

Now you're implying that I said that's 100% the case.

Well if you aren't considering context, you must mean 100% of the time.

Of course I don't think you actually believe that. I'm just trying to follow why it stood out to you and it's not adding up.

[Kmd4390]

Yeah, you're right. Lynching scum doesn't help us. It leaves 2:1 going into night and 1:1 after the NK which is guaranteed to hit town.

No lynch brings us to night 2:1:1. Scum crosskill wins. Scum shooting same town player puts us in a do-over except scum know their target was town. 1 scum and 1 town death is a win for the surviving scum. Two town deaths leaves 1:1 between scum teams and I don't know if that's a draw or what but frankly I don't care because it's a town loss.

Mislynch makes night 1:1:1. Scum crosskill is still a town win. Scum both shooting town means everyone knows each other's alignment for a do-over. One town and one scum death is a win for surviving scum.

So, ironically, lynching scum is the worst possible outcome today. I think we need to no lynch.

You're also 100% right about this shitty shooting. I forget which one, but one of those kills was the josh slot and he was obvtown so that was a horrible kill. How Aris survived the night I have no idea.

Vote no lynch

If we decide to lynch, it needs to be havingfitz or myself. That opening post was very town. It's probably not worth the risk, just my two cents, but the scum are obviously Aris and Realeo at this point and I'm not helping to lynch either of them. Assuming havingfitz won't either, your guys' only chance to win is to shoot the other and hope you survive. It doesn't benefit you to shoot town just in case you didn't already figure that out like 3 game days ago.

[Kmd4390]

True

Unvote, Vote Kmd

I don't know 100% that you are town so I'd rather do this.

[Kmd4390]

I know. I'm pretty convinced you are town. But I've seen my own Role PM, not yours.

[Kmd4390]

*shrug*

Unvote, Vote havingfitz

There's almost no way you're scum. Let's just be on the same page here. Makes things easier.

[Kmd4390]

If you'd have shot realeo, we could have that discussion. But now the game is up to scum's shooting tonight...

[Kmd4390]

Unvote

I wanna wait for realeo and see how this plays out while I digest Aris' claim.

[Kmd4390]

Ok. Typing while I think.

Aris is proposing that he and Realeo both shoot me. What that would do with Havingfitz being lynched is leave a 1:1:1 in which Realeo and Aris decide whether to shoot each other so town wins or one of them shoots me so that they win alone. There's almost no way this ends in a town win that way.

If we no lynch and they both shoot me, not a whole lot changes.

Havingfitz, help please. I'm stuck here.

Aris, who was the N1 kill? Just curious.

[Kmd4390]

Technically, the Groundhog day scenario ends the game in a happily ever after. There's a wiki article on it. That's kind of almost no fun, but we all pretty much know each other's alignment already. Town doesn't benefit by lynching scum. And scum's best move is actually to agree not to kill each other. It's an awkward endgame.

[Kmd4390]

Well, I guess from your PoV you don't. But Aris and I seem to both have it figured out and obviously Realeo will know what's what when he gets here.

But yeah, you're right. Opposing factions working together or actively deciding not to is the only way we end up with winners and losers.

[Kmd4390]

Meh. I guess we'll just see what happens.

Still curious what Realeo has to say though. More info can't be a bad thing.

[Kmd4390]

So which of you is fire and which is ice?

[Kmd4390]

Also you guys do realize that your only chance to win is to shoot each other and hope the other doesn't, right? Shooting town doesn't help you.

[Kmd4390]

Oh wait. fitz is dead so lol. Yeah. I have to shoot Kmd.

@Kmd

We shoot you. The kills cancel. We lynch you.

How's that work? Your teams both win? Or is it a draw?

If both win, there's nothing havingfitz and I can do except no lynch, but you guys can still figure it out. If it's a draw, that's pointless. I'm assuming you've already asked the Mod and it's both scum teams win though? Otherwise, shooting town would make no sense for you.

[Kmd4390]

*sigh*

[Kmd4390]

So there's nothing I can do...

Vote Havingfitz

Let's get it over with.

[Kmd4390]

OMG YES

That's exactly what I hoped to read when I saw that the game was over.

Realeo knowing about the lo and josh-slot kills and knowing to claim fire sealed it for me. He was also the least likely of the two to shoot me so I wanted so bad for him to be scum here.

Interesting thought:
If scum had actually shot me AND I'd suicided, the two shots cancel out and we go to day with 3p and fire scum thinking I'm confirmed town.

BK you were an awesome scumbuddy.

Light, good modding.

Preview edit: Yeah, that made sense. It was a good play. The honor pitch is hard to go against.
Everyone else, fun game. Especially in the end.

[Kmd4390]

Culted, I just read the dead thread and you weren't obv doc to me. I've never really mastered power role hunting, but I thought it was Transcend for a comment along the lines of "I'll never be lynched".

[Kmd4390]

It crossed my mind, but it's not the type of thing I'd do without being completely sure Realeo was shooting me. And he's a thinker. A scenario kind of guy. He even told us that the correct play is for him to shoot you. He knew what he was doing so I needed to do the obvious thing and shoot him and hope for the best.