Open 675: Pick Your Power X/Y (Game Over!)

[davesaz]

Caught up but it felt really disjointed reading it. In part because it took 3 reading sessions.

[davesaz]

there's a certain thing i'm thinking about 116 & 118, and i'm wondering if anyone else sees it

I don't think I'm seeing what you see. But I see those posts as useless. Makes no sense to post them IMO.

It's enough that I think we'll need to see Spade_Ace flip before LYLO.

[davesaz]

Caught up but it felt really disjointed reading it. In part because it took 3 reading sessions.

This is traditionally the point at which you, you know, share your thoughts on what you've read and stuff.

Just announcing that you read it doesn't do much.

Read the 1st sentence as "prod" and 2nd sentence as "dodge" and you'll get a better idea of what I was really saying.

RL was busy. <-- true statement
I might have time today. <-- true but not guaranteed. None of my family have asked me to do anything yet but they rarely give warning.

Trans and Persivul reactions are leantown, Spade_Ace reaction is leanscum.
Town lean for giga. But I'm not sure if that's a playstyle bias.
KTS is more active and his posts are fractionally longer but I don't remember what his alignment was when less active and terse.

[davesaz]

So you find the above two reactions as town but the below one as scum? Care to explain it further?

The others are less cautious and follow the more likely path of starting with the lurker might be scum (though that's a site meta that needs some serious fixing imo). Though Persivul's is more the skeptic path, it's still a "this might be scum" kind of reaction which is weakly townie. You on the other hand seem to have a preconception that I'm town, which only scum should have.

Seems like you are just going along with what everyone is saying.

Who or what sayings am I going along with? Are you concerned about something here?

[davesaz]

Why flip? Can't someone just investigate me?

Similar to what was pointed out before.

[davesaz]

I don't necessarily disagree, but care to explain why?

[davesaz]

Sorting Uzi will be unnecessary, except as it relates to Titus.
I think Titus is very unusual this game. Upbeat entrance "let's rock this" or something like that, and then she fell flat. Which is kinda what Uzi did too.
That is informative, but unfortunately it may not be AI.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Titus
So unlike town!Titus I've seen many times. The one time I've seen Titus avoid she was scum and I called it.
L-2

[davesaz]

I think the extra motivation might be helpful in that regard.

[davesaz]

Off topic: the Sirius/XM station I listen to is running a big thing on Fleetwood Mac this week, which I thought was an interesting coincidence with schadd_'s sig.

[davesaz]

lyon when titus replaces into scum slots does she still do vca like she does when replacing into a town slot?

idk the way shes doing it here still feels off to me and i cant rly put into words why

Not directed at me, but I've seen her misuse VCA as scum more often than she uses it at all as town.

[davesaz]

davesaz always a

viable

bad option

FTFY

[davesaz]

dunn, talk about this game

what about it

er, that's a good question. can you remember the last time you made a post that wasn't comprised of one-liners?

Sadly, that's a good definition of Dunn's playstyle.

[davesaz]

Having played in many of these games I thought it might be time to try #1. AFAIK every one of the people who did so is a veteran of the setup and have seen it not picked on many occasions.

It could be because it's Friday and I'm mentally skipping ahead to upcoming RL events, or it could be just that I'm dense this week, but what's the trigger for this flashwagon

[davesaz]

Spoiler: Alt

I hacked the spoiler content out but left the spoiler itself to show what I'm responding to.
If you want to change playstyle and leave meta behind as an alt, your best bet is to act like you don't have meta on people. Referring to old games will get you found out and you'll find people treating you like the player you're trying not to be.

[davesaz]

kinda town: davesaz - looks pretty candid, interrogative and

trying to figure it out from the sidelines

that's bold and difficult and unlikely given his scum lynch rate (wiki). but he hasn't been active/personal enough to get a strong gut accompaniment to the read

Very

accurate. I must admit the wiki page is way out of date, but my scum rate will be even worse once it's filled in.

[davesaz]

^this guy doesn't have anything to say on the rest of the game

I freely admit that I need scum flips. My early game is shit and everyone knows it. Nary a clue, other than Titus is not playing her town game and I don't feel right about hard pushing it because she claimed RL and I always respect that.

[davesaz]

WTF is that sequence? I don't necessarily mind it given I've no fucking clue who is scum, but why question it and then vote sans reason?

[davesaz]

I'll sheep that. At least someone finally gave a concrete reason for something, and it actually makes at least a little sense.

VOTE: whemeplay

[davesaz]

Still waiting for Titus to do anything vaguely town though...

[davesaz]

Oh okay. It gives you a tingling feeling inside?!?

What about all of this?

Also, suppose you lynch me and I flip VT. Does it give you any additional info on whom to

target

?

Any one notice the word target?

This one specifically is the type of thing that scum points out, and it's the way that scum point out things.

[davesaz]

Our best town strategy for early game deadline in this setup is to lynch a claimed VT if we can't agree on scum. Lynch the VT claims and let scum resolve the PR claims for us (or at least make them try to). For darn sure, this late in the day stay away from unclaimed. Running someone else up to a claim would be sub-optimal at this time, unless we're really sure they're scum.

Yeah, it sucks if you're the sacrifice but this is one setup where that's actually the VT's job. And who knows, the claimed VT we pick might still be scum.

Yeah, I'll probably draw a scumread for this post because I'm posting setup-based IIOA, but someone has to step up and tell town how to play it. I don't see any signs that y'all will wise up on your own.

[davesaz]

VOTE: momo
Inviting an investigation tells me this is probably scum PGO. If not see my previous post for reasons.

[davesaz]

Present. Still got nothing.

[davesaz]

Actually that's not true. Some of the "NKA" related posting is bogus. Not sure whose.

[davesaz]

Because I'm doing like 4 things at once.

[davesaz]

Wouldn't hurt to think about what I said though. Is killing a tracker really that unusual?

[davesaz]

More things on the page before this, but here's part of my thoughts.

Fair enough though. Maybe they just wanted to kill the tracker anyway.

Town. This is in response to someone saying bad kill, will need to back up a page to see who.

idk that was a terrible kill bc it was such an easy mislynch

Scum often downplay the kill choice. But KTS talks like this a lot so it's weak.

also how do you guys feel about asking a vig to claim if they shot whemeplay?

like what if we have a doc/rb that stopped a kill...? everyone's assuming scumkill i just realized

Dunn what are your thoughts on Alban?

oh yeah forgot about that; i want to know this too

Town thought process.

Pedit: KTS talking this angle makes me think he's trying to talk town into mislynching me. But I have a known soft spot for scumreading people who do that, so I don't trust it.

[davesaz]

with the pedit what do you mean? has scumreading that not worked out for you in the past? from your pov i think kts is a good fos

I need to keep better notes. Memory is the 2nd thing to go when you get older...

[davesaz]

I believe the watcher (if chosen) is 1-shot so a guilty should just be claimed outright.

[davesaz]

dave idk if you know how to answer this (or even want to i guess) but can you briefly describe the difference between your scumgame and your towngame?

I make knowingly bad cases against people when scum. As town I feel no need to do this so only make cases when they're good. (though whether people agree or not is another matter)

[davesaz]

Recent example, I nailed Titus's replace in post in Pokemon as scum, though I failed to push it adequately. I made a great (but incorrect) case against Titus's apparent lies (which turned out to be a misstatement on her part given she was not actually a noble) in Code Geass.

But here's the rub: you scumread me for not making cases, when I openly admit that

as town I don't make cases

. My scumhunting is based on listening, not talking.

[davesaz]

Sorting Uzi will be unnecessary, except as it relates to Titus.
I think Titus is very unusual this game. Upbeat entrance "let's rock this" or something like that, and then she fell flat. Which is kinda what Uzi did too.
That is informative, but unfortunately it may not be AI.

VOTE: Titus
So unlike town!Titus I've seen many times. The one time I've seen Titus avoid she was scum and I called it.
L-2

Still waiting for Titus to do anything vaguely town though...

^this guy doesn't have anything to say on the rest of the game

I freely admit that I need scum flips. My early game is shit and everyone knows it. Nary a clue, other than Titus is not playing her town game and I don't feel right about hard pushing it because she claimed RL and I always respect that.

@Dunn
^^ Opinion, and a rather strong one, but one I'm still reluctant to push because Titus says she's still sick.

Lyon is town, Space_Ace could still be scum playing at being town, KTS is enigmatic, GigabyteTroubador looks helpful but could be scum. Dunn is probably bad town. Alban is

probably

very much like me (and therefore probably town) except I haven't blown up yet on the topic of activity/apparent effort not being alignment indicative.

Best guess is Titus (not happy about pushing), Space_Ace. Don't have a 3rd, and I don't remember the whole player list and don't want to interrupt myself to go look.

[davesaz]

I did some reading last night but was getting sleepy and didn't get around to posting any of it (I think...). It's kinda amazing that I remember it but here goes.

I read Alban as scum on iso read but want posts from replacement.
When I read Giga I get townish with some strangeness that could be scum because it gives round peg square hole vibes.
I don't really remember if I've seen Kts scum before. I do remember quite clearly that I usually think he's scum. Sort later.
Can't remember what I thought about PP last night.
Lyon seems to be town clearly.
No interest in lynching Schadd_ for what should be obvious reasons.
Spade_Ace has been doing things that seemed manipulative to me, during d1 for sure and might have seen it d2 as well.
Titus hasn't broadcast town, still waiting.

[davesaz]

ooh, I know the answer but would like to see how Lyon responds.

[davesaz]

I don't see Titus's towntells either. Avoiding current event issues is what told me she was scum in Pokemon.
I kinda want to know if nancy has posted anything, but I want to hit submit on this first.

[davesaz]

That would be a nope, and another accidental pagetop.

VOTE: nancy
Can't remember if I'm already there and can't be troubled to interrupt myself again to check.

[davesaz]

@Daves, I am still waiting for your reply

Spade was making comments d1 which looked like they were meant to influence PR targeting so that scum could kill elsewhere.

[davesaz]

Did I mention that I've only seen cautious/careful Titus once, and she had replaced in as scum in that game?
I'd go there, but I think at least one leading wagon is on scum already.

[davesaz]

@Daves, I am still waiting for your reply

Spade was making comments d1 which looked like they were meant to influence PR targeting so that scum could kill elsewhere.

Didnot understand this. Please explain. Also, if you find Spade scummy, why are you not voting him?

Spade made posts on d1 which sounded like they were reminding town protective and/or watcher type roles to save / watch a particular player, so that scum could kill someone else. I can't make it any clearer than that.

Given multiple scumreads and only one vote, it should be quite obvious that I can't vote them all. Why are you questioning it?

[davesaz]

Yeah, town should be happy if cop investigates them and gets to out the result, not be concerned about it.

I think Spade_Ace is scum by behavior, but I'm in no hurry. It's possible schadd_ investigated someone else and we should definitely wait for that reveal.

Pedit: explain how town would be concerned about a cop investigation, especially town who has been scumread and wagoned?

[davesaz]

This whole cat and mouse thing is really pissing me off.
Just say directly what happened, quit screwing around.

[davesaz]

Yeah, town should be happy if cop investigates them and gets to out the result, not be concerned about it.

I think Spade_Ace is scum by behavior, but I'm in no hurry. It's possible schadd_ investigated someone else and we should definitely wait for that reveal.

Pedit: explain how town would be concerned about a cop investigation, especially town who has been scumread and wagoned?

scummy

Do you ever actually think about these things? Or do you just automatically call things scummy by habit?
I want to see an actual "I investigated X and got Y result"

immediately

. If I don't see that then schadd_ is scum redirector.

[davesaz]

Sorry, but you did a whole lotta "what do you think" without any way to make it clear whose reply was the correct one.

[davesaz]

If you mean seeing people's reactions as they misinterpret info, I don't disagree. I thought Spade_Ace's reaction was actually quite AI.
If you mean actually misinterpreting info, I don't think that's good for town but scum want town to do it.

Did you say why/how you chose a target?

[davesaz]

lets lunch tituusssssss

titus is literally the one person we KNOW wont flip rb.......

How do we know that?

[davesaz]

I do really prefer that cops have an actual scumread on their targets, not a policy target. It's a whole lot more confirmable that way.

[davesaz]

Umm, I believe we're claiming

not doc/rb

, not what our role is / isn't.

[davesaz]

Has cloud claimed yea/nay on RB/Doc? I don't remember.

[davesaz]

that list is screwed up btw

[davesaz]

^ I was doing it too in a way though I had an actual reason for holding off, but agree that the Titus slot and activity surrounding it are bugging me too.
Given Mafia know what the "tried to get Doc/RB" claim is trying to accomplish, it's pretty clear they have to try to avoid it somehow, so we'll probably end up in a 50/50 at best.
In case someone's waiting for it, the bolded was my answer btw, did not try to get Doc/RB.

Do we want to wait for the claim chain now? If not I'd be open to using a wagon to shake things loose.

[davesaz]

How are the people higher on the list who haven't claimed anything excluded?

[davesaz]

What did Titus claim?

[davesaz]

Ah, thanks. UB can be confirmed / proven false by a result tomorrow. If true then we should get at least 1 and maybe 2 PR results. If false then she didn't pick up a tracker capability and won't have a result to give. Definitely better to keep looking for RB.

[davesaz]

Unofficial wagon history since last official vc. I've done my best but can't rule out errors because my daughter was bugging me just now.
< are votes which are later superceded.
> are votes which stick.

nancy (3): Prince Lyon, davesaz, Spade_Ace
Titus (3): bangthemafia, Dunnstral, Cloudkicker
Killthestory (2): Titus, nancy
Spade_Ace (2): schadd_, Killthestory

Not Voting (2): PenguinPower, gigabyteTroubadour

<lyon v kts
<giga v kts
>dunn v pp
<giga v titus
<giga v spade
<giga unvote
<lyon v spade
<lyon unvote
<lyon v kts
>lyon v pp
<giga v pp

nancy (3): davesaz, Spade_Ace
Titus (3): bangthemafia, Cloudkicker
PenguinPower (2) : Dunnstral, Prince Lyon, gigabyteTroubadour
Killthestory (2): Titus, nancy
Spade_Ace (2): schadd_, Killthestory

Not Voting (2): PenguinPower

<giga v nancy
>ck v titus

>giga v titus

Titus (3): bangthemafia, Cloudkicker, gigabyteTroubadour
nancy (2): davesaz, Spade_Ace
PenguinPower (2) : Dunnstral, Prince Lyon
Killthestory (2): Titus, nancy
Spade_Ace (2): schadd_, Killthestory

Not Voting (1): PenguinPower

BTW only 2 days and change left and we're nowhere near a lynch. I did not realize deadline was that close nor that wagons were so divided.
VOTE: Titus

[davesaz]

Odd are you're mafia with her.

[davesaz]

Ugh, this is taking too long. Optimal play for town is to make certain lynch choices by day and expect at least one useful result from night actions.
Unless mafia played suboptimally on purpose to try to deceive me specifically (since I'm dialed in mechanically on that certain lynch choices thing), there is definite scum in <giga, nancy> and <Titus, Spade>.
I don't know who the 3rd scum is but a scum flip within one of the above two pairs will likely give us a smoking gun somewhere.
Discussion?

[davesaz]

I prefer to lynch in the <Titus, Spade> pair, and of the two I can believe Spade as town more than Titus based on meta.
Lyon could very well be doing something opposite of what the RC persona would do. RC would bus like a madman, so PL is probably defending a partner to the death.

[davesaz]

Those are paired scum/town where alignment within the pair is an unknown.
One of giga or nancy is scum. I agree that giga looks town.

For me personally it's Titus+nancy+ unknown 3rd. If I happen to be wrong then the other in the pair is the next choice.

[davesaz]

If neither nancy nor giga are scum, then both Titus and Spade are. I consider that less likely than my previous groupings.

[davesaz]

@giga: Are you sure on Dunnstral? He just made himself a candidate for mystery scum.

[davesaz]

@giga: Are you sure on Dunnstral? He just made himself a candidate for mystery scum.

it's hard with apathy in general but i think this is how town!dunn engages with the game

i need reasons to sr him

By randomly voting people instead of engaging with the conversation, which has actual AI content going on?

[davesaz]

Here's a scenario where it makes total sense for Spade to know schadd_'s role.

Scum have a top 4 pick.
They decide to go for broke and pick cop.
If the earlier players prefer something other than cop, then 4th player gets redirector and denies the cop to town.
If a townie does pick cop, the vanilla goon claims going for the cop role to appear townie.

What valid scenario has a 4th pick townie going for cop, a role which is almost always picked by the 1st townie in the draft?

[davesaz]

Nobody ever actually

believes

that rolecop is better than cop, other than in a game with a godfather.
But it's an easy thing to lie about.

Pedit: why are you asking scum what her lynch pool is?

[davesaz]

VOTE: nancy
I don't think we have enough people on to swing nancy. I was ready to hammer Spade and still would given I think the slot is scum regardless of where rb is.

[davesaz]

I actually had the hammer vote written but decided to ask if there is any final discussion / reads to give.

Titus, do you understand why I'm doing groupings that way? If you do, any rebuttal? Have I missed something?

<in before the stupid question -- yes, I asked a scumread for "advice" -- I'm not immune to mistakes and if she's town she might be helpful>

[davesaz]

I actually had the hammer vote written but decided to ask if there is any final discussion / reads to give.

Titus, do you understand why I'm doing groupings that way? If you do, any rebuttal? Have I missed something?

<in before the stupid question -- yes, I asked a scumread for "advice" -- I'm not immune to mistakes and if she's town she might be helpful>

I haven't read them. Link?

2837 lays out the groupings, followups in 2839, 2849, 2922
It should take minimal thought to figure out why those groupings. I'm downplaying the theory because certain people have a gut scum! reaction to the basic topic and we don't need yapping dogs right now.

[davesaz]

dunn if you're ccing please dont be coy with it

I'm not actually

I'm convinced another scum is the neighborizor

Convinced certain, or convinced you just suspect it?
Now's a fine time to mention this btw.

[davesaz]

Neighborizer is the second most powerful role after cop/GS to me.

HE. HOLSTERED. NIGHT 1.

If you really think this you should be voting him.

Also, it depends on the player using it.

A sensible post <gasp>.
I for one would suck as neighborizer. I barely have enough time to post in main threads. People hate me in hoods because I don't post in them.

[davesaz]

Dunn, thoughts on nancy?
PenguinPower thoughts in general?

[davesaz]

Reads on nancy, all around please.

Titus as rb could have rb'd PP and then claimed this way. I don't think anything is confirmed.

[davesaz]

Option 1: Titus & PP both town.

Titus tracks PP, scum block PP. Very smart play by scum IMO.

Option 2: Titus town, PP scum.

Titus tracks PP who goes nowhere. Looks the same as option 1.

Option 3: Titus scum, PP town.

Titus blocks PP but claims to get a track nowhere. PP gets a no result which looks like a RB. Externally looks the same as option 1.

Option 4: Both scum.

Both report results the same way they did. Externally looks the same as option 1.

Essentially we learn nothing new from this.

[davesaz]

Can I get some reads on Nancy please?!

[davesaz]

kts titus and nancy ? i think nancy is the most obvious scum rn from heavy poe

Consistent with past posts, thanks.

[davesaz]

Prince Lyon, how sure that nancy is town? If she were scum who would partners be?

[davesaz]

Wait, you weren't rbed?

[davesaz]

I'm on a meeting lol.

[davesaz]

@Lyon I have other things to discuss, as I previously pointed out the whole Penguin / Titus thing revealed absolutely nothing.

[davesaz]

You should probably hush, and let the non-tunnely people talk.

How about you tell us who your scumreads are.

[davesaz]

I'm thinking PenguinPower is scum independent of the mechanics, just look at that iso with no scumreads other than the already flipped town. I keep lurking players as NAI to a degree but I don't see it as still being viable for town to be in this position. I do wish it had jumped out at me before though... Just aiming to not hurry because it would be good to figure out who the partners are.

The whole <nancy or giga> pairing was about scum tending to pick a low, medium, high spread of lottery numbers in order to maximize their PR chances and they're the only living people with high numbers. I don't see giga scum in that pair so I want to find out who nancy would fit with as partners. Any of the 1's is a potential partner in the low slot, leaving the pool too large and too many question marks. If some of the 1's can be ruled out as potential nancy partners then we can POE it down a bit. Then flip Penguin. To that end I need reasons for everyone's nancy reads.

[davesaz]

Alt slip + wrong thread?

[davesaz]

Suppose we had confirmed scum vs. possible scum. Is there any benefit to shooting the possible scum and saving the confirmed scum to lynch?

[davesaz]

Have I seen everyone today? <goes to check activity>

[davesaz]

Yup. Almost time to vote but wanna make

sure

we take the right approach.

I watched schadd_. The question about choosing to keep the confscum to lynch tomorrow is real.

[davesaz]

Why settle for one scum when you might get 2 or 3.

[davesaz]

Yes, I know what you were trying to do. It needed to be outed in case PP is town and then scum RB KTS, saw the softs and kill me, and town ends up with nada tomorrow.

[davesaz]

I'm trying to figure out how n3 vig falls all the way to the bottom of the order. TBH I was floored to get watcher so low and I find it hard to believe that 2 PRs ended up at the bottom.

[davesaz]

Whoa. Nancy didn't hammer?

[davesaz]

I knew it all along and let it string out. Was going to let it hang a bit more.

[davesaz]

I think you misunderstand, I thought it was a good idea and it did seem to bear fruit.

[davesaz]

VOTE: PenguinPower

[davesaz]

I'm kinda interested in Dunn now.
I still think if PP flips scum like we

hope

expect then kts should consider shooting someone else in order to possibly end it right there by leaving us with an obvious lynch tomorrow.

[davesaz]

Why isn't it better to eliminate an unknown possible scum + an actual scum, vs. vigging the actual scum and leaving us with no clue tomorrow who to lynch?

[davesaz]

I proved ages ago that PP flip says nothing about Titus, because Titus could still be the rb even if PP is the neighborizer.

[davesaz]

I've personally seen RC and Titus break every "rule" there is about svs, because I was scum with them in a large where they pulled a giant 1v1. You can't rule out Titus + anyone on interactions alone. Or RC for that matter.

[davesaz]

How can nancy flip rb given she did the kill?

[davesaz]

I think it's fortunately, and take note of the scum who want anything but a penguin lynch.

[davesaz]

That unvote took it to 4. I voted and Dunn hammered.

[davesaz]

there was some REALLY sketchy play this game

I feel that way every game.

[davesaz]

Partly my fault for not just taking the guilty when I had it.

[davesaz]

And more evidence that scum playing to town leader is a thing.