Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]
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Okay, so finished the first seven pages. I'm free all day today so should be catching up soon.
I've got three fairly solid townreads: Outoforder, Kidamn, and Rels. Not sure how the Kidamn wagon sprung up but from what I read I don't support it so please don't lynch until I catch up and share thoughts.
I've ambivalent on Hapahauli so need to catch up to figure out if I want to vote him.-
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@Hap, is there a reason your play here is different from the play I've seen from you in the Mini we played together? There and in Dierfire's Mini Normal, you replaced in, made a case on a single player and pushed the lynch through. Here, you seem to have a wider focus on a lot of different players. I think part of that could be playing from the beginning and being under pressure but it would help if you could link to a towngame where you played similarly here or at TL.
Also, if you keep track of stats, how often do you survive as scum and have you ever been lynched D1 as scum?-
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@Cass - I've posted reads that jumped out to me as I read but full readslist will happen after I finish reading the entire thread and ISO everyone.
@Creature - what happened to your read on Fitz? Right now, the people I'm most concerned about are Fitz, Hap, and Hawk (I'm just at the point where I saw Hawk's replace in post and scumread on Doomfeathers at the end of page fourteen).
Current townreads are OutofOrder, KidAmn, doomfeathers and Creature. Rels faded out a bit so not as strong there.-
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Looking through Hawk's games, I noticed that in Open 669, he voted Doom for quickly changing his vote and they were both town there. So, he should know that Doom does this as town and it's at worst null. I don't like that he uses the same reason to vote Doom yet again.-
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It's hard to believe that you used a scumtell on someone, saw that it was wrong and then used the same tell on the same person again. I didn't imply that you should be reading him as town now because he did it before as town (that's what your response to me sounded like). I'm saying it's null but you voting him in your replace in post means you thought it was actively scummy.-
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Is this actually a thing that happens in TeamLiquid? I'd like Outoforder and Hap to answer as well. This seems like a massive stretch.In post 422, Rels wrote:But Frederick made a blunder; got pressured by OOO; and replaced out. He didn't replace out of nowhere; he replaced specifically after being pressured. More likely coming from scum than town.-
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I've read the first twenty pages and I need a break. This game is dense.
@Cass - who are you scumreading right now? I don't share your townread on Hap. I think the KidAmn case ignored a lot of what made him town and pushed on "contradictions" that I don't feel were very alignment-indicative and in fact that's probably where my vote is going to go once I'm caught up.-
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Fitz is probably town for 523 and the way Aubrey approached his Fitz read gives me townvibes as well. Current scumpool is Hap + 2 out of (Cass, Rels, Kop, and Hawk) although I haven't read a single Cass post before my replace in so that's more of a POE pool.-
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I think Rels is the townread you may be more likely to be wrong on. There were a few of his early posts that gave my townvibes but I think he could be trying too hard to make his reads mesh with outoforder's. For instance he pushes Hap after Outoforder pushes him and then once Hap posts a not-so-good case, the suspicion is suddenly withdrawn with a "welcome to the game Hap" and then Hap is removed from his lynch candidates entirely to be replaced with people that Hap was scumreading. He was also on the KidAmn wagon. I haven't got to where he voted yet but I'm pretty skeptical of everyone on that wagon.-
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Town
- Doubt I even need to explain this. I don't think any player is capable of replicating the content he put forth in the first twenty odd pages when he was active. Easily my strongest read.Outoforder
- Three main reasons: Firstly, I liked his aggressive attack on outoforder at the beginning of the game. More than that, he was unfazed by outoforder townreading him back while he attracted pressure from others like Hapahauli. His push wasn't well-received but he kept going and I think scum in this case would be more likely to hesitate and reconsider rather than brazenly push their only advocate. I don't think scum-Kid would be so offended at outoforder calling him bad town especially since he seems to be pretty new but I could see town thinking that they're being discredited and doubling down. Secondly, while he does take issue with Creature's playstyle, he also mentions that Creature's scumread on Allomancer was lazy/opportunistic which is more than a playstyle thing. I think just the fact that he a)looked over Creature's previous games and b)undercut his own argument are both decent towntells. Hapahauli missing all of this is where the bulk of my suspicion stems from. Thirdly, while I don't agree with the points KidAmn raised against Hap, I think his reaction was genuine. He misunderstood Hap's points but the way he responded makes me think he genuinely believed that Hap was misrepping him.KidAmn
- His stance of KidAmn as town and voting Hap is more likely to come from town which admittedly is somewhat biased by my own reads. But I think that KidAmn wagon would be a tough one for scum to pass up on. Fitz saying that Rels and Outoforder suspecting Hap is a reason to look in his direction is something I find scum tend to hesitate on because they'd look bad for sheeping. His probing on whether Rels and OutofOrder ever mislynched Hap and other questions meant to understand their group dynamics were queries I thought were very good and I had many similar ones as I was reading through the thread.HavingFitz
- Probably the hardest read to explain and there's a significant meta-component to it. I'm not as confident in Creature-town as in our previous game together. But I also disagree with the argument that he's bussing Hap. He's been pretty set on making sure the Hap wagon happens even as alternatives spring up so a Hap scumflip makes him extremely likely town. I'll have to re-evaluate if I'm wrong on Hap but even then, I lean town based on how involved he's been in the game. His poe mostly makes sense although there are some outliers like Hawk that I don't understand and who I think should have been a townread after those two walls.Creature
- Most of my townread on Hawk comes from the two introspective walls. I specifically liked the part where he pointed out the interactions between Rels and Hap in 786 which I also thought were odd when I first read them, and the part where he asked Rels about Hap in a previous post. 659 though is where I started firmly townreading Hawk. I think it would be easy for scum to have "reads" but much harder to convincingly fake not having any concrete reads and nothing about it looks fake or contrived.Hawk
- Things I liked were his critique of Hap's case on KidAmn, his consistently looking through the lens of what he would do as scum which scum are less comfortable with, and the way he backed off of Fitz while still being unsure. I thought his response to Kop's "buddying" comment was weak as I don't see why he wouldn't buddy now just because he didn't do so as scum in the past but I think the high level of engagement points to town here.Aubrey
- I think the activity is not alignment-indicative for him but I liked 159 which shows he's doing his research and 211 is very believable since I did the same thing and came to the same conclusion that Fitz is tough to read from meta. That this came right after he started townreading Fitz and then doubting himself is even more town as it shows he's organically looking for more information to develop his read.Doomfeathers
Null/Uncertain about
- I started off townreading Rels mostly for 91 where he asks for Doomfeather's games. I had the exact same inclination to look through a couple of his scumgames to see what he's capable of. I'm not sure I agree with his conclusion since despite being lynched D1, doom was fairly active and pushing players even as scum. I like most of his reads in 398 and his push on Hap. On reading more closely, I don't think his backing off of Hap was scummy but I'm not a fan of his vote on KidAmn. What I disliked the most about this slot I mentioned in 825 and would like answered. But overall, I think Rels is more likely town than not.Rels
- Probably the most conflicted here. Her thought process is extremely difficult to follow. I don't understand the rationale behind assuming that scum are bussing Hap. As I see it, there have always been counterwagons, first on Kop, then on KidAmn. If she was so sure about Hap being scum, I have a tough time reconciling her L-2 vote on KidAmn who was Hap's biggest push. The insistence that Hap was scum but that we lynch Creature first was also really odd. But I do think her townreads on Creature and Hawk evolved organically and the Hawk read at least was based on the same post that I thought was town. I think the sheer activity and content generated by asking people to re-evaluate their town reads was good too.Cassielle
- Quick look at his meta shows that this near complete lack of participation is normal for him as either alignment. I haven't seen anything that makes me solidly townread him @Kop: I have a few question I'd like answered. Can you explain your Rels vote and your comment that scum are lurking in "Rels, Hapa and Doom." If you think that's the case, why vote Rels who has no votes on him over Hap who's a more viable suspect?Kop
Scum
- My first scum ping came when he attacked KidAmn's first post, then backed off in 97. I agree with outoforder that there was nothing KidAmn said in that post that should have made Hap back off. What I think happened is that Hap thought he could make a push on KidAmn which was then immediately received very negatively by both Outoforder and Doomfeathers who townread KidAmn. It seemed like Hap wanted an excuse to back off and push elsewhere so he quoted a completely mundane post, said it made sense and unvoted. Secondly, his case on KidAmn is pretty bad. One of his arguments is basically that KidAmn is scum because he lurked while calling out lurkers. Except scum would be a heck of a lot more cautious to not do that because that would get a "so are you" response from town. But if he truly thought Creature and FEC were lurking in a scummy way, he can't just let them slip away. That reminds me of a townie (Jaack) in Mini 1843 who flew under the radar while calling out another player (Cloudkicker) for doing the same thing who incidentally winded up being scum. I went over his other argument in the KidAmn section but that's pretty bad as well and if anything points more towards KidAmn being town. Hap then scumreads HavingFitz because HavingFitz wrote a long post while criticizing outoforder for writing long posts. You've gotta kidding me. None of Hap's reads have resonated with me and they all look like cobbling together "contradictions" and "inconsistencies" without looking deeper into them.Hapahauli
VOTE: hapahauli-
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It's odd to me that nearly everyone who posted since my Hap case agreed but found reasons to vote elsewhere. There were so many people that looked town but Hap's reads were the least believable - his read on KidAmn and Fitz - and ultimately that's what I'm going with.
I do understand Kop's argument that Rels might have pressured a town-Hap and backed off for towncred which actually makes me feel better about Kop.
I'm going to re-ISO Rels when I get back this evening to see what I think. Not interested in lynching outoforder. That Fitz vote was weird but it does make sense with his previous suspicion and his posting before his V/LA was super town. Just want him to get back in the game and post thoughts.-
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Rels could be scum but I have a hard time seeing a Hap-town, Rels-scum scenario. In that scenario, it's overwhelmingly likely that a town-Hap would have caught onto a scum-Rels especially when the latter was pushing him so hard and they know each other well. But Hap never suspects Rels and his top four suspects are KidAmn, Fitz, Kop, and Cass. I think Hap lynch gives us better odds at hitting scum.-
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"Hap lynch hits scum 100% of the time" and you are voting Rels?
Lynchinganyscum gives information. I'm not going to lynch someonelesslikely to be scum becauseifthey're scum it gives information. If Rels flips town, we've just wasted a mislynch. If Hap flips town, well according to you there's no possibility of that happening so I don't understand your reluctance to vote there at all. What stops us from lynching Rels later on if we think he's the most likely scum at that point?-
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Don't give in to stuff if you don't even understand where Cass is coming from. I haven't ruled out a Cass/Hap scumteam yet.In post 895, KidAmn wrote:I'm still not crazy about us going from "Hapa is the lynch but let's look at other stuff first" to "Rels is the lynch and don't any of you dare stall"-
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All the while, she's been calling Hap 100% scum. How does anyone not see the ridiculousness of her position?
Yeah, she's active and she's contributing. But her reads make literally no sense. I'm going to read through her past games this evening but I doubt I would find a game where she calls someone 100% scum and then tries to browbeat people into voting somebody else.-
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None of what you said makes any sense. If Hap is 100% scum, why are you voting elsewhere? The "lip service" that I'm referring to is that you're too confident Hap is scum but your votes don't show that. If any wagon picks up steam, you are there on it.
KidAmn, Fitz, and Outoforder, let's get back on the wagon and lynch Hap.-
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@Hawk - how did you go from "Hap looks the worst of the three TL players and Rels is my backup," and saying that you are "okay with a Hap lynch, look at Rels if he's scum" to voting Rels? Then you say you are concerned that Kop is pushing Rels and that you could see Hap/Kop or Hap/Rels. Based on all of this, you should be voting Hap so I have no idea how you winded up with a Rels vote.-
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@Hawk - I'm not clear about your thought process here. Walk me through it once again: you initially dismissed Rels and Outoforder's cases on Hap as being meta-driven. What does that mean exactly? Did you think they were all town, all scum, or any one or two of them were scum? How does my making a concise case against Hap make you think the TL members are either mislynching Hap or bussing? Hap is scummy by himself. My Hap case has nothing to do with Outoforder or Rels bussing him. In other words, why does me making a Hap case plant the idea in your head that the TL crowd could be mislynching Hap?
Hap's wagon has plenty of resistance. No one is outright townreading Hap but always finding reasons to vote elsewhere. First, the Kop wagon sprung up as a counterwagon. Then it was KidAmn, and now it's Rels. How do you get "zero resistance" when it's so hard to corral votes on him?
"If Hap flips town, where are we?" is something you could say to any player. What will them flipping town tell you? If you are "fairly certain Hap is scum," then you should be voting him.-
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You still haven't answered my question. What does "I don't think meta is AI" mean? That's extremely vague. Did you think Rels was town who suspected Hap, scum setting up to mislynch Hap, or scum bussing? I don't understand how you go from:
Rels and Outoforder are pushing Hap = don't think meta is alignment-indicative. Ignore.
I post a case on Hap = This is a more genuinely thought out case, Hap is almost certainly scum, vote Rels for backing off of him.
One thing I missed in your previous post. You said "We probably lynch Hapa today. But we have time. We still have what 2 days to talk?." Are you intending to vote Rels just to get him to respond and then move your vote back to Hap?-
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Okay, thanks for clarifying. That makes a ton more sense after I re-read your ISO again to see how you arrived at that. The notion of "I want to lynch X today but first I'm going to vote Y to keep them accountable" is a really odd way of scumhunting that I don't think I've encountered before but at least it's consistent with your previous thoughts. Do go ahead and say what you intended to say though. It should help me solidify my read on you.-
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@Aubrey, when you do get caught up, I'd like to hear your actual stances on potential wagons. While I obviously agree with the point you raised above, it's concerning that you haven't used that to talk about anyone's alignment and only argued it in a generic sense. Your last few posts since the point I replaced in haven't impressed me either. It doesn't seem like you are invested in making sure a lynch you want happens today and are just focusing on tangential stuff like Creature's comment on the daytalk. Stuff I expected to see but missed entirely is some sort of reaction to my replacing in and pushing for a Hap lynch, and the reactions of several other players by scumreading him and voting Rels, and actual stances on whether you think either Hap or Rels are scum and who you want to lynch today.-
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@Hawk - thanks for that explanation. How much are you considering the fact that Rels' push on Hap was one-sided and Hap never pushes back on Rels at any point into your reads? Personally, part of the reason I prefer Hap was that in a Hap-town, Rels-scum scenario, Rels would have been successfully fooling Hap all along even while launching a massive push on him. Given that Rels seems to look up to Hap (calls him a town god in 401), this seemed rather unlikely to me. I'd like to hear what you think the odds of those are compared with a scum-Hap convincing Rels to back off.-
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@Hawk - I do see the possibility of a scum-Rels backing off of a town-Hap for the "I told you so" cred. My point is that it's rather unlikely for a town-Hap to be completely oblivious to Rels' posting. Hap not noticing or commenting on what Rels' push on him says about Rels' alignment, focusing only on trying to convince Rels' of his being town is concerning. He also argued to Fitz about how Rels' (and outoforder) backing off of him means the case on him is no longer valid but he never actually spends a lot of time trying to sort through Rels' alignment.
@Aubrey - My main reason for voting Hap is what I laid out in my readslist and isn't dependent on any other reads. I have been considering various possibilities though from my null/scum pool to see what interactions make sense as scum-town or scum-scum. Can you go over your reads a bit more on the rest of the playerlist? While I agree with your Hap read, I'd like to see your own reasons for voting him.-
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Why are you detached from this game?In post 924, Aubrey wrote:Normally I am a bit more vocal and forceful in my reads, even with the headspace that I go about day 1. However to be frank, I'm kinda detached from this game a bit. More than normal.-
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Also, was the entirety of 924 directed at me or just the first part? Because I haven't suggested lynching Rels based on associatives nor am I 100% sure about my Hap scumread. Cass was the one who said both of those things.
I'd like a bit more elaboration on where you stand with regard to Rels and Hap. You are focusing on whether other people's reasons to lynch them are justified but I'm more interested in what you think of their posting by itself.-
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No, it doesn't? I was asking for your reasons for voting Hap and you say that you think he's a null/scum-lean. Can you elaborate on why that is? Also, the not wanting to post a reads-list doesn't make any sense considering that you are saying you'd be okay lynching any of your null/scum reads but not townreads. Except no one has idea what those reads are. The best I can do is take guesses from your interactions with people but that's a lot more vague and prone to error than having you commit to townreads, nullreads, and scumreads.-
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Okay but could you go ahead and list out your reads? Given that you are arguing you'd lynch any of your null/scum reads, you can see how it creates a problem reading you if I don't know what those reads are, and you could potentially decide to hop onto whatever wagon crops up with the reasoning that "this player is my null/scum reads."
I don't need an in-depth list. I'll settle for a naked reads list and I'll ask for comments on reads that interest me.-
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Looked over three Hap towngames to see if I could be wrong here and nothing has given me pause. Basically, I just read through his ISO to see where he makes a case against someone and the reasons he uses:
1. Devil's Riddle Mafia - This one is on TeamLiquid. He does indeed spend the first part of D1 poking around so that's not scummy. His first case is on Geript here which basically amounted to Geript being disjointed from the flow of the game while not adding anything to the discussion which I thought was a fairly good reason to suspect him.
2. Aperture Mafia - Also on TeamLiquid, he scumreads Trefle for posting a case on someone Trefle thought was a third party. A bit nitpicky but he clearly delineates what the scum motive is for hunting for third parties.
3. Town of Whispers - This is on mafiascum. I suggest people read it as it's only an eight-post ISO. He scumreads SlySly for unnatural confidence in his three scumreads, lack of considering the Misere wagon, and lack of townie paranoia and taking in new information. Hap was wrong and SlySly was town but it still showed a lot of depth and this happened before any scumflips.
So, that's the baseline I'm working with regarding the quality of Hap's pushes and cases. Going to re-read Hap's ISO in-depth again to see how they stack up.-
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I'm not going to point at each player and ask you for your read on them. If your end of day posting basically amounts to having a few townreads and being willing to lynch anyone in your null/scum pile, you should have a very good idea of who those people are and there is no reason to not share them especially given there is no chance of there being any PRs in this setup or ulterior town reasons to withhold reads.In post 938, Aubrey wrote:No. I told you how you can get reads from me. I'm not giving you a reads list.
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I've also shown doubt on the Hapa read, and in my own way I'm challenging it in the above post. Why are you not bothering to remedy those shaking feelings away?
I'm not sure if you're asking about your shaking feelings or mine. I'm reading through Hap's games to see if I still feel the same way about lynching him.-
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@Aubrey:
Spoiler: In your previous towngame, you've been willing to give lists of people you'd lynch D1
Spoiler: In another town game, you tell someone how refusing to give reads doesn't make a lot of sense
Spoiler: Here's another reads-list from town-Aubrey
So, this refusal doesn't make any sense to me.-
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I want to know where you stand on all the players so that I can engage you on the ones I find to be of interest.In post 942, Aubrey wrote:Straight up. I don't feel like doing it, and would rather engage with you rather than doing a shitty reads list. You're trying to make it sound like I'm refusing to give reads at all, and that is not the case. I'm refusing to give you a reads list that wouldn't amount to jack shit, but would rather have a conversation with you about individual players that you are interested in my thoughts on.
You wanna know X, I'll give you X if you just do Y.-
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Your read on Cass interests me the most. What "impenetrable suit of armor" are you talking about and why do you "want to townread" her? Her stance on Hap being 100% scum and voting Rels is really bad as you agreed and her latest post reads extremely fake. That's one slot I'd flashlynch today if it became viable.-
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I'm not sure what game you are reading where Rels has been posting and going "ham" on counterwagons. And I've trying to derail the Rels counterwagon and making sure that the Hap one gets through. Hap also hasn't posted at all on site since a couple of days ago so I doubt his not posting is indicative of alignment.In post 956, KidAmn wrote:Hap disappearing as soon as people start looking elsewhere is sketch as fuck, as is Rels and BV suddenly going ham on counterwagons
Vote Hapahaulibecause we really need to get SOMETHING out of this day and Hapascum swinging is best for business-
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I don't think writing a wall of text while complaining about one is scummy at all. Hap made the same argument and I literally could not believe someone would think that was scummy and that factored into my scumread on Hap. Seems more like it's a TeamLiquid thing though. I don't recall where Fitz tried to "fend off suspicion" with something you did but I think you are conf-biasing here. In general, I find his posts and reads to be town which I elaborated on in my big readslist.
On that note, I'd like to hear your thoughts on my 825.
Also FYI, we don't have three days to deadline, we have a day and sixteen hours.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Here's what he said. I don't see the issue in catching up halfway through and holding off on giving reads until he's completely caught up.In post 205, havingfitz wrote:I'll wait till catch up is complete to give my reads and serious vote.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I've played with Fitz before. Can confirm that wall-of-text is his normal style of play. I very much doubt he saw you getting townread for your wall and decided to go "hey, let me write a wall so I too can be townread."In post 979, outoforder wrote:He wrote like 1000 word that said nothing. AFTER I HAVE BEEN READ TOWN FOR A WOT (that actually had a reason to be written).
You seem to be pretty big on looking over people's past games. Haven't you read any of Fitz's?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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@Outoforder, I've rarely seen instances of scum replacing out under pressure. Seems unethical to replace out when caught. So, using that as an argument for why someone is scum feels like a stretch. But I suppose I can understand that if it happens frequently on TL. And no, it wasn't his original case, I guess I could see him being conf-biased and thinking Frederick replaced out under pressure.
My tinfoil theory at the time was that both Rels and Cass were partnered and Rels was so sure because he knew the Frederick slot was actually scum. But their interactions since Cass replaced in don't really fit partner interactions so I'm not concerned.
Regarding Fitz, writing walls of text is how he always plays the game. You can't expect him to be concise when that's not his style.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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@Cass, I don't see how the thought process of "vote Rels, if we hit resistance, switch back to Hap" makes any sense whatsoever. Meaning if there is no resistance, then the Rels wagon goes through and you'll have just called Hap 100% scum and lynched someone else.
What I call browbeating is this quote:
You are basically saying if people do anything but vote Rels, they are stalling. I assume you are saying stalling is scummy because I don't see why else you'd mention it in that context.In post 891, cassielle wrote:stalling tactics to be aware of:
if players say they refuse to vote rels this dayphase, theyre stalling
if players say that someone outside of rels/hapa has a better chance of hitting scum, theyre stalling
if players push hapa while saying they scumread rels, theyre stalling
if players push rels but don't vote, theyre stalling
So, basically "vote Rels or you are scum." That's browbeating trying to get a Rels wagon going through DESPITE the fact that you've called Hap 100% scum. Why shouldn't townies be voting this 100% scum as opposed to Rels?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I assume you mean me since Hawk hasn't posted for a bit. I'm townreading both you and Fitz. If you think I'm wrong, I'm wiling to listen to what you have to say about Fitz's content. But telling me he's scum because he didn't need to write a wall, or that he complained about walls while writing one isn't convincing me. I've played with him before and know that that's his style. Talk to me about the actual content Fitz has posted in his walls that you have issue with. I do see the point you made about him not explaining the "contradiction" and scumreading you but I think pushing back on people that accuse him is normal for Fitz regardless of alignment as well. I replaced MooginSoosy.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Your point is that he is scum because he walled while complaining about walling. That's a bad argument. You then said he's scum because he wrote a wall and said he'd give his reads after catching up fully which you think is scummy because you don't see the point of the wall. I pointed out that this is a null-tell for him since catchup walls is how he plays the game. I don't find it at all odd for him to catch up partway through and say he'll give his reads when caught up fully. You then said he's omgus'ing you which again is something I've seen him do as both alignments. I feel like I'm beating my head on a wall here. Fitz isn't getting lynched today. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the rest of the playerlist when you are caught up.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Hawk's reflections seem town to me. What do you think of 659? Also, read on Aubrey would be nice. I'm concerned that his laid back attitude towards the lynch might be scum. Not in a "lost" way as you and outoforder. It's more like he doesn't really care what happens at a time when most town are trying to secure a lynch we can live with.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Can you elaborate a bit more on your Cass townread? I could see some of her posts being town but that pretty much evaporated based on her play around the Hap wagon. It was really odd that she comes into the game, tunnels Hap, jumps onto the budding KidAmn wagon, jumps onto your wagon, etc. It feels like opportunistic scum creating a smoke-screen more than town trying to solve the game.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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