Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]

[cassielle]

i can see town saying "dont vote anywhere but fitz or me"
i cant see town saying "dont LOOK anywhere but fitz or me"

1 is trying to keep lynches in a sane pool
2 is trying to stop town from scumhunting. gets them towncred for being willing to be the sacrifice, tho theres a risk of getting called on their bluff

[cassielle]

also: despite saying hes one of the best lynches for today, if people scumread him and push his slot he gets volatile and nasty about it
when rels scumreads him he shadecasts, when he talks about a town!fitz world he says (paraphrasing) "just flip a coin on whichever top dog townie is alive at LyLo" and says that "whoever it is doesnt deserve to win" -- which isnt pro-town
he derails attempts to search out of the ooo/fitz pool, and refuses to consider any other possibilities -- arguably town would always know theyre better off looking in the dusty corners or at LEAST letting someone else look into them, whereas scum know who is scum already and so they dont understand the need to search the same way

in general i dont like his play from a town perspective -- but its very pro-scum if hes convincing enough (and i think he is)

[cassielle]

Go to Kop's filter and read his posts on D2. There is your reason.

when i do nka its "non-indicative"
when you do nka its "there is your reason"

the scum case stacks up

[cassielle]

OoO has been the driving force behind the game so far, and that's incredibly difficult for mafia to fake. I've seen games where OoO was active and the lead poster as mafia, but noneso in a way as productive as this. In dealing with lurkers for example (Moogin, Kop, etc.), he's questioning them and trying to figure out their alignment rather than trying to actively discredit them.

I think this is the sort of read mafia give to townies rather than their buddies. There's also the entire interaction between Hap and outoforder at the beginning of the game that reads to me like Hap was walking on eggshells trying not to trip up outoforder. If they were scum together, I'd expect light distancing rather than Hap appeasing outoforder.

two things:
scum have daytalk
ooo is most likely an extremely high level scumplayer

however: fitz's case, while it did have solid parts, was pretty shifty
i say we go with ooo's gameplan: lynch him then fitz. i really highly scumread ooo and the threadcrapping increased that scumread astronomically. now, yeah, the content would arguably be anti-wincon as scum -- but he could be trying to WIFOM it up, and like, if this were any player whose scumplay might fall below "really good" i would say "never voting that slot" but beyond a certain level of scumplay even "super obvtown" stuff like that becomes subject to WIFOM

so my feeling is: call the bluff

and i can def agree with a d4 fitz wagon if ooo's lynch isnt a townwin. not feeling momo/doom wagon tbh

[cassielle]

ooo could have coached hapa through it because of daytalk

and rels is still a scumread but hes about equal with fitz after fitz's case. the case had good chunks, yeah, but they were almost entirely pulled from my own past arguments vs ooo, or kidamn's quips against ooo (things like the misrep and discrediting players). the rest is crap, NAI, and/or baseless shadethrowing against ooo

that doesnt make him scum on its own, its just that (as you noted) this game is down to subtleties and fitz showed weak townplay there -- which is the best i got at this point for reading slots

[cassielle]

EBWOP and why fitz instead of rels if ooo flips town?
fitz has momentum, rels doesnt, and theyre about equally scum to me atm

[cassielle]

hey if you gotta lynch me today to have better reads tomorrow go for it, seriously
ive lost interest in the game, im confident remaining town can gamesolve, im not really contributing anymore which is mucking up the reads, etc

and rels, i answered bv when he asked me that
also im not pushing for any particular lynch, im just prod-dodging in a game relevant way (by posting my thoughts) tbh
if you disagree with them, cool. ill do what bv wants regardless of what he wants, seriously

[cassielle]

I'm not sure where the apathy is coming from though. I'd expect town in your place to be proud of the fact that you correctly scumread Hap D1. But you are using your "semi-wrongness" in order to coast.

What I want is for everyone to participate so we can lynch right today and end the game. I've been reading and re-reading this game and constantly thinking about it and hitting dead-ends. I need someone to offer a fresh perspective.

cant talk about the reasons for my apathy, they partially have to do with ongoing game(s) (not specifically this one)

im constantly re-evaluating and posting my thoughts as i have them but thats all i can do on that front. if those arent a fresh perspective then i cant really help you there -- those are genuinely considered reads and thoughts and i dont really have the motivation to do more

[cassielle]

thinking that momo is indeed a troll or maybe scum, nothing is fake about that post of mine rofl
maybe need to doublecheck creatures thoughts on the momo slot?

heres my thought process, bv, its p simple:
1: town can afford a mislynch
2: im not contributing much despite the best efforts i can muster up atm
3: im apparently creating noise in your reads despite saying "lead and i shall follow"

from this its clear that:
1: mislynching me isnt gamethrowing
2: mislynching me will increase density of content
3: mislynching me will give you better reads over all (from associatives or w/e, from known-alignment, and from a better signal-to-noise ratio)

theres also the possibility of you just ignoring me and finding a diff lynchtarget
but if im pinging you that much then thats not (from your point of view) pro-town, thats (from your point of view, again) letting potential scum coast
so im accepting of my lynch as pro-town in the long run. its possibly helpful to town to lynch me. i dont see why thats so hard to understand

[cassielle]

EBWOP ftr, before someone starts blatant misrep again: idc about the vote. just momos reasons for it.

im comfortable being a lynch target, i am not comfortable with people using a bs excuse to choose me as that target

[cassielle]

idk momo is looking REAL BAD there yeah

like just angling for a lynch on anyone who looks easy? idk man that slots surprisingly scummin it up here

@bv: doom looked townie but does he have associatives against hawk/hapa?
iirc he sort of avoided them both

[cassielle]

yeah like just trying to push any possible wagon, exactly what i said

cool so uh im feeling a momo lynch for sure now

[cassielle]

prefer momo to fitz/rels tbh
ooo is possible still but momo is acting like caught scum -- yeah trolling is nai but theres a certain willingness to do what the hell ever, etc. from that slot. in a scum!momo world, its not trolling -- its just that momo is in an information vacuum (all other scum are dead) and is acting out to get some feedback

kidamn, in my position where youre trying your best to contribute and its not good enough, and town has lynched right every time with only one scum left, would you or would you not be willing to get lynched so that town could stop getting distracted by your slot?

[cassielle]

prefer momo to fitz/rels tbh
ooo is possible still but momo is acting like caught scum -- yeah trolling is nai but theres a certain willingness to do what the hell ever, etc. from that slot. in a scum!momo world, its not trolling -- its just that momo is in an information vacuum (all other scum are dead) and is acting out to get some feedback

kidamn, in my position where youre trying your best to contribute and its not good enough, and town has lynched right every time with only one scum left, would you or would you not be willing to get lynched so that town could stop getting distracted by your slot?

Only if I was completely, 100% sure that 100% conf-town would nail the last scum the next day, with no wiggle room. So outside of that incredibly unlikely scenario, no, I'd keep fighting.

interestingly i am 100% sure that bv will 100% nail the last scum if he stops looking at me (whether due to accepting im probtown or just lynching me) so i mean, youve described my thought process there

[cassielle]

thoughts on each of those

1: ooo is top-tier scum, probably. scum have daytalk (check first post). he could have coached hap through those interactions. this isnt provable until postgame, but its a narrative that makes sense.
2: fitz has been dropping all day long in my reads. keep in mind scum dont need/want to read the game, he could have sheeped town reasoning on his partner to avoid giving away infotells (where he knows more than he should, is more perceptive than he should be, etc).
3: i think momo has enough significant play to read into separate from doom. doom felt town, but momo has felt insanely scum (opportunistic wagoning, seeing what targets stick, pointless shadethrowing) here. doom could have had help with his noobtown cover with hawk/hapa, but i agree that (unlike ooo) this requires an assumption of exceptional scumplay that isnt afaik warranted (we did lynch two of them already after all)

as for me, i am -- ok, d1 a wagon is prob gonna be on town no matter what, i mentioned that before yeah? i would really rather not have a wagon on my townreads, but that doesnt mean i would act like that about such a wagon
the real issue for me was the timing

last goddamned minute timing.

i didnt have the time to make an informed decision on your lynch target and i townread them hardcore. i got loud because the obvious thing to do would be to hop back on hap here (which still would have given us scum, interestingly enough) but you got momentum going and it made it impossible to fix.
if someone had unvoted before the mod locked the thread id have powerlynched them d2 over you tho, no-lynch was not an option in my mind

now, if i had to pick between kop and hawk there (which i did), why pick kop? kop gives us nothing, if hes scum we get no associatives, if hes town he doesnt narrow things down at all, and i townread him about as much as i did hawk
but i wasnt voting hawk in order to lynch you, tho i was ready to push your lynch D2 right up until he flipped red.
i was voting hawk because i wanted a no-lynch like i wanted a hole in my head and i wanted any lynch to be remotely useful

hawk had posted. associatives were there -- and as you can see for yourself they have been fruitful, you have some effective conftowns and you caught hapa. if he hadnt been scum there would have been good vca -- i felt he made himself look very town d1, so the vca would be nice and crisp if he flipped green
kop had... kind of posted? but no one but me was townreading him and my basis was weak. he didnt really interact with anyone. he just sort of sat in the background and grumped. if he flipped scum it'd be d1 with two fewer players in the game. meanwhile if he flipped green everyone would be pretty surprised except for me. in hindsight, given the gamestate as it is now, that would have been really easy to turn into a chain of mislynches (me, you, probably town!fitz, maybe town!rels), tho back then i was mostly concerned by the complete lack of progress a kop lynch would get us d1

i think i can see your point on rels tho? im not sure i buy it, but i can see the point

[cassielle]

looking over your list, ooo is the best lynch as presented
the biggest tell on d2 would be someone trying to push any wagon but hapa's in this gamestate i think
and ooo basically cloned my d1 play wrt hawk there without the reluctant vote

[cassielle]

im v happy with an ooo lynch (and kidamns megapost p much sealed that)

if ooo comes up green my best bet would be momo also, like creature says
i was initially thinking maybe kidamn if ooo is green, but no, quotewalled masterposts are all through his iso, its just hes had a long period of relatively smaller posts (which are also consistent with his d1 iso)

VOTE: outoforder

momo is too opportunistic for me to not keep an eye on that slot tho, if theres a d4 lynch it