Open 679: Jungle Oligarchy (Game OVER)

[Aj The Epic]

Hello! Summary as I read in?

[Aj The Epic]

Cool. Who was setup to be killed last night, and what were the thoughts on all three? I know QuickTranscedence got killed, but I still would like consensus opinions on those given as a public list to give an idea of what kinda scum group we're dealing with.

[Aj The Epic]

So the objective today should be to completely neuter the werewolf team then because the kills can't come through. My only reservation is that we lack an ability for us to get hints from the night list if we actually stop the werewolves this early.

However: my base assumption is as such: None of the mafia would be on that list N1, and that the list would be selected in such a way to try and get the behavioral style of the werewolf team (do they try and hunt scum via the list, given the chance, or are they willing to just kill town). My assumptions before hearing anything was that we'd see a basic conf-town, and 2 mildly scummy players because that would avoid any conflict if the second werewolf was put on the list to allow a true identification of their behavior.

From what I'm reading thus far, it looks like the werewolf bit on the most town player, as so far I'm not seeing Lucca and Mattblackguy as these huge town powerhouses.

It's a lot of assumptions but I'd like to have a discussion about behavioral decisions made here by mafia/werewolves to get a possible understanding of the werewolf in particular. Killing their ability to night kill d2 would be just impossibly huge.

[Aj The Epic]

I don't think the werewolf would expect mafia to be on the list early, nor would I expect the mafia to expect the werewolf would expect that. I think the people on the list are probably just the top 3 players the mafia wants dead.

See, but here's why this is important: We either say the two left CANNOT BE MAFIA, or that mafia was willing to take that risk N1. I think you've already made the first assumption with Ari, so I don't think we're missing that part too heavily. We do have to deal with a layer of WIFOM in the fact that mafia could assume this, and figure out each player's own personal risk in a situation like this, but it still is really nice to have a possibility to soft clear two players.

[Aj The Epic]

Ari also isn't a risky player as scum iirc. I've heard his general meta is 'don't post as scum, posts a fair bit as town'.

[Aj The Epic]

On a sidenote I now fully realize who "bubbles" was in fucking The Oxford Bubbles hydra...

@Infinity, I agree. However, it's a case of risk so it really IS dependent on how much a risk taker said scum is. I'd expect a player like Grey or Transcend to consider a decision like that. I definitely would consider it, though I'm not sure if I would make the call to have a scum partner there. Obviously Transcend's flipped town but it DOES depend on the risk profile of those who are scum.

[Aj The Epic]

Lucca could easily be Hans' buddy.

The fighting between the two feels theatrical and in post 424 he asks LuV to talk him out of his read, claiming Lucca feels conflicted about the read. Lucca claimed he thought Hans was scum when he entered the game and really saw no natural progression to that. He sat in second scum area from Hans, which is exactly where I'd expect him to sit in this gambit (shows Hans cares enough to scum read, but not enough to vote: Perfect distancing tactic for someone not going to live long).

And he changed off Hans in one of the most unconvincing switches all game to Tea (post 593). The real issue here is Grey was having a HELL of a time getting traction on Hans at this point, with QT hard defending and Lucca signaling he wasn't interested in being there. But Lucca's reason to switch just sucked and he never openly admitted to TR'ing Hans, which seems to be the more obvious reason for the switch anyways. Fucking loads of posturing and signaling by Lucca that makes his moves unnatural.

There IS a factor of prior experiences together via both being scum that's rather intangible in actions, but I do think Lucca is a prime candidate for one of the remaining scum slots here.

Moving forwards, it seems I'm not unique in seeing Lucca's actions as questionable. Actually, from this re-read, I'm fairly confident mafia was trying to list the werewolf to make sure the kills they want have a higher % of going through, since Matt/QT/Lucca are all defending Hans in some sort of way, thought QT was kinda obv town. I see this as a force for QT to die.

However, the scum thinking this would suggest that their pressure on either slot would've been relatively low as they do need a WW alive to take advantage of.

[Aj The Epic]

So I'm now caught up.

Grey, why ISN'T Kop the other WW? I see you kinda baited Hiraki over a vote, but I'm still drinking the koolaid that Kop is that WW partner. At the very least, I don't think Hiraki is the wolf here.

Also, I'm fairly positive the last WW was a replacement. After going on a rollercoaster re-read of the thread, QT seems pretty town early on but it's fairly obvious towards the end of D1 that he was going to catch some serious flak D2. This to me is a very, very clear signal that the WW didn't realize their best kill was probably Mattblackguy (since running theory, Lucca scum).

It's also interesting that scum only served up people who could've been pressured hard the next day. In reality, that kill list should've been [Grey, Riley, LuV] as that was the specific town block that needed to be broken for scum to advance. The list is actually too entirely weird considering, but it almost looks like scum was trying to force the second WW to reveal.

[Aj The Epic]

I don't think Hiraki is the wolf here.

You gotta explain things like this, it would be very helpful if we had good reasons for hiraki not to be werewolf.

It's more of "lucca postured like crazy, even after a scum claim by hans" and "Hans caring about Prim's replacement isn't really indicative of another WW". I also don't think Hiraki and you have resulted in anything damning or indicative of the alignment either way, I thought most of it was quite petty. I'm not saying Hiraki couldn't be mafia, but my care is to disable night kills today.

@Flak comment, Grey was breathing down QT's neck by the end of D1. To me, it looked like Grey was ready to lead another crusade to kill off QT no questions asked, or at least would've been prepared to do so. I think that QT's stance in the town had a huge negative delta between the beginning and end of D1, and there are a lot of replacements who wouldn't be able to read the full game to see it. More importantly, there's also an empty QT that has no info to help them catch up.

[Aj The Epic]

I don't think they had enough time to catch up really. It would've probably been an iso scan to analyze their overall threats. It's almost 30 pages worth of reading for two nights.

My impression of the game going into the first night was Grey was sufficiently in control as a town leader and that he had essentially picked his targets for subsequent days as well as had determined a small town block for his help.

I'm also not sure that the scum team really understands the implication of WW v Mafia in that situation for what it's worth. Like there's a lot of room for improvement on the decisions for who to list and kill.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Kop

[Aj The Epic]

But personally If I had a choice on where the lynch would go, I'd go down for either of Spade, Hiraki, Ari and BTD.

Cool, listen to this guy when he flips town.

Except AJ is also mafia.

You're gonna back that up or back that shit up.

[Aj The Epic]

90% sure Riley is Bubbles from The Oxford Bubbles hydra. Her play there was identical and town (her hydra partners had to reign her in a bit). I thought the same at first, but especially in this game she was super transparent.

[Aj The Epic]

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=69970

Read TOB's Iso, bubbles post. It's a 3 person hydra but only "bubbles" and "raven" ever seemed to play.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah, 80 years from now hopefully.

[Aj The Epic]

Infinity, beyond Hiraki what are your reads?

[Aj The Epic]

...that reads list sucks for including Riley specifically as mafia.

And the reason it does is Riley never really mentions BTD or Hiraki/Pimhel, and votes spade pretty willingly.

[Aj The Epic]

Are you saying that because you're adamantly against Kop lynch or is this your belief? TBH infinity, you're acting strange.