Open 679: Jungle Oligarchy (Game OVER)


User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #872 (isolation #0) » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:19 am

Post by Umlaut »

Hey, I'm here but just got back from spending two hours at Chuck E. Cheese. I'll contribute once my brain stops leaking out of my ears.
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #873 (isolation #1) » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:21 am

Post by Umlaut »

I did start reading, didn't like Momo much but have no idea who he is now.
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #876 (isolation #2) » Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:37 pm

Post by Umlaut »

It's so interesting that you think that.
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #910 (isolation #3) » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:23 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Infinity hasn't done much of anything to redeem the Momo slot, but Chaos did. His few posts were high-content and also critical of Hans in a way that Hans really didn't need. Chaos is an experienced enough player to make me a bit wary of this, bit at any rate if he's scum he's probably Mafia whereas, as Grey has pointed out, we should be aiming to catch the other wolf right now.

Grey, I'm pretty sure you're town. The case you're making against me is one I can't rebut since it's all about my predecessor's interactions with a dead player, so I'm just going to ignore it. How do you feel about Spade?
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #912 (isolation #4) » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:34 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 447, Spade_Ace wrote:Hans: NULL/Town Lean
To me, he looks like a townie who says scummy stuff. A townie who is concerned about other's perception of himself and worried that others might scumread him. Can relate to it. He is quite open about his thought process. I doubt whether scum would flipflop so eaily especially when pressurized by someone else. Him defending Cake 381, also seems town indicative. It will be worrisome only if he has done something similar as Scum. Haven't read the game that Lucaa posted.
1. I feel like null is the most suspicious possible position you can have on a player who flipped scum. It says "waiting to see which way I need to go on this."

2. I really find it strange how he's taking Hans' most suspicious behaviors (flip-flopping under external pressure and fear of being scumread) and turning it into something scum
wouldn't
do.

I know it's hard to answer this now, Spade, but what about Hans' flip-flopping struck you as townish? You said "I doubt whether scum would do that" but why not?
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #934 (isolation #5) » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:01 am

Post by Umlaut »

Not totally satisfied with Spade's response, but I'm not sure what else to ask, so I'm going to try something else right now.

There are two places we should be looking to narrow down the wolf list:

1. The Hans wagon. I highly doubt a wolf bused their only partner on day 1 of a 13-player multiball game.
In post 862, davesaz wrote:
Votecount 1.5

Superhans (7) : ChaosOmega, Lil Uzi Vert, Riley Cake, -Grey-, BTD6_maker, Quick Transcendence, lucca261 (Lynch)
ChaosOmega (2) : chilledtea, Superhans
-Grey- (1) : Frederick E Campbell
Spade_Ace (1) : mattblackguy
Lil Uzi Vert (1) : Hiraki
Quick Transcendence (1) : Spade_Ace
Not voting: None
  • ChaosOmega, Lil Uzi Vert, Riley Cake, -Grey-, and BTD6_maker are definitely not wolves.
  • lucca261 could yet be a wolf since his vote came after Hans' confession. (Not saying I particularly suspect lucca, just that
    this in particular
    does not rule him out.) Note that lucca himself pointed out that we should rule out people on the Hans wagon, but included himself on the clear list.
1. Hans' reads.
In post 441, Superhans wrote:Town read so far excluding Fred and PimHel.
I flip flopped completely on QT and Spade.
Null read on QT and Chilled Tea.
Town lean on Spade (feel free to grate and bait me for this one).

{LUV, Matt, Riley}
{Spade}
{Chilled Tea, QT}
{BTD6, Lucca, Grey}
{Omega}
Hans isn't going to put his buddy as top-tier town or bottom tier scum. So his buddy is one of {Spade, ChilledTea, QT, BTD, Lucca, Grey, Fred, PimHel}.
  • QT is dead.
  • Grey and BTD are ruled out by being on the Hans wagon.
  • ChilledTea is me.
This leaves Spade, Lucca (now Kop), Fred (now Darklyn), and PimHel (now Hiraki). I'm going to focus my reading on these individuals.

For now,
VOTE: Spade_Ace
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #938 (isolation #6) » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:19 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 935, Infinity 324 wrote:Why wouldn't scum put their buddy in the top tier if the idea is never to bus?
It's not guaranteed and it does happen, but most scum players are worried it will look bad to hard-townread a teammate, and prefer to give a more noncommittal kinda-town read.

At any rate, Uzi and Riley were on the Hans wagon so this would only add Matt (Aristophanes) to my list. I have no problem keeping an open mind to that possibility. Chaos/Momo/Infinity is still an unlikely wolf though.

Pedit:
Grey, that's an interesting argument but it seems a bit too blatant even for a poor player. I would never in a million years make a post like that in his position if Pimel/Hiraki were my buddy.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #959 (isolation #7) » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:22 am

Post by Umlaut »

Grey, I'm reading through Lucca's ISO and I'm really not seeing what you're seeing. His pushes on Hans start early, make sense, don't seem to betray any special knowledge, and he never really softens that read so much as he moves on to another wagon for a while so as to actually be doing something.

If I had to look for something to scumread there I'd say the earliest posts directed at Hans seem like they could be read as coaching and trying to warn Hans off of his scummy behavior, but I don't think that's a good enough reason to suspect him by itself.

Do you care to enlighten us?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #964 (isolation #8) » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:13 am

Post by Umlaut »

Living players who have yet to post today:
  • BTD6_maker
  • Aristophanes
  • Kop
  • Riley Cake
I'm not saying anything in particular about these players, just putting the info here for the sake of easy reference.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #968 (isolation #9) » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:34 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 967, Hiraki wrote:I haven't voted for that sake Umlaut. Quicklynches are the new norm, unfortunately.
:?
Are you seriously unwilling to put someone at L−4 at most because "quicklynches are the new norm"?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #969 (isolation #10) » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:36 am

Post by Umlaut »

Moreover, are you saying that "Some people haven't posted yet" is a reason not to vote? Not
lynch
or even
wagon,
but
vote?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #993 (isolation #11) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:08 am

Post by Umlaut »

@Spade: Well, your answer wasn't
awful,
it just doesn't make me feel a lot better about your slot.
In post 915, Spade_Ace wrote:1. In case you missed it. It was NULL/town Lean that is my read of him was between a neutral and town read.
2. His behavior, like 'changing votes multiple times when questioned' is something that is expected from a newbie scum playing their first game. Hans's level is "Mafia Scum", which means that he was experienced enough to know that inconsistent behavior would make him look scummy. I felt he was 'too scummy to be scum'. Also he was replying to questions immediately in real time, which seemed coming from someone with an open thought process.
1 isn't a suspicious response, but it does kind of miss the point. I don't care whether your stated read on Hans was dead-null or null-townish, it's equally bad either way.

2 is a plausible reasoning process (re. Hans being too experienced to make those mistakes), but I think most of us know that a lot of players just never learn how to scum. I don't want to belabor the point (we already have Hans' flip, why argue about it) but did you at least consider the hypothesis "Hans really is that bad" before dismissing it based on his experience?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #997 (isolation #12) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:26 am

Post by Umlaut »

Making note of this so I don't forget:
In post 979, -Grey- wrote:Keep up this garbage with one more fucking post and I WILL scumread you.
In post 980, Hiraki wrote:953 implies obsolete in time rather than in substance. But I'm glad that you could've explained that in a normal fashion and read as hard as you want everyone to read your posts so that this was clarified.
In post 981, -Grey- wrote:Reading the fucking GAME would have told you I moved on.

Fuck it, you're mafia. After I'm done killing this werewolf, you can die next.
If Hiraki is scum then this was a pretty gutsy response, to do exactly what Grey threatened to scumread him for. I wouldn't expect a scum player to want to keep an interaction going that was bringing him negative attention like this.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #999 (isolation #13) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:32 am

Post by Umlaut »

It's
more likely
that he did it because he's not scum.

I mean, I don't see belaboring a point as scummy anyway, so I think the scumread is undeserved in the first place.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1044 (isolation #14) » Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:05 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1038, -Grey- wrote:Lol Amished tell.
I have never in my career on MS seen this actually catch scum.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1053 (isolation #15) » Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:13 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1042, Kop wrote:Not familiar with [the Amished] tell, so you'll need to expand on it.
Supposedly remarking negatively on your predecessor upon replacing in is a scumtell. Or, depending on who you ask, indicating that you have paid significant attention to your predecessor's posts at all.

It doesn't work, and Grey should be embarrassed for bringing it up.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1074 (isolation #16) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:02 am

Post by Umlaut »

V/LA until, let's say Sunday.
My wife is pretty sick.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1117 (isolation #17) » Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:40 am

Post by Umlaut »

I'm still sort of half-following-along, just wanted to pop in and say:
  • Granted that I'm not the target, I'm not seeing the toxicity in Spade's posts that Hiraki is.
  • I
    do
    feel like Hiraki and Spade are reading one another as uncharitably as possible. In particular I feel like all of Hiraki's "clarifying" looks a lot like question-dodging (though I'm pretty sure he's not a wolf so there's no reason to pursue this in detail today).
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1118 (isolation #18) » Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:43 am

Post by Umlaut »

Also:
In post 1109, BTD6_maker wrote:At this stage I am thinking about Omega and Infinity (the players, I am not doing ordinal analysis at the moment).
This guy here. :D
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1123 (isolation #19) » Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:50 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1122, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1117, Umlaut wrote:though I'm pretty sure he's not a wolf
Why?
Honestly it's because I forgot he was on the potentially-a-wolf list. Need to rethink this now.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1190 (isolation #20) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 4:46 am

Post by Umlaut »

All right, need to get my head back into this game now. Sometime today (possibly tonight) I'll start doing analyses of Hans' interactions with the other players I mentioned before. I suspect it'll just come down to "it's probably either Spade or Kop" which it looks like we've all figured out already, but it's still worth being thorough.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1194 (isolation #21) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:43 pm

Post by Umlaut »

So here's the first in a series of posts about associatives between Hans and various suspects, and let me tell you, it's not impressive at all.

Associatives between Superhans and Pimhel/Hiraki


There aren't any.

Pimhel was barely in the game, and nothing Hiraki said about Hans is meaningful since it was all after Hans had flat-out confessed.

Hans mentioned PimHel twice, both regarding his inactivity:
In post 701, Superhans wrote:PimHel has made two posts. Don't waste D1. Don't act like there is an y inevitibility because it'll allow player to get away with doing nothing.
In post 777, Superhans wrote:

@MOD
Can we have 24 hours so that Hiraki can catch up?

Pimel made literally 2 posts
Neither of these seems important. You could try and argue something like "Hans was trying to give his buddy a chance to catch up," but why? If anything it would be in wolf!Hiraki's favor for the day to end quickly and save him from taking a position on his buddy's wagon. Given the circumstances I'd say Hans was more likely just taking any opportunity to ask for an extension in hopes that a bigger wagon would appear.

Hiraki did write his day 1 catchup posts in a way that suggested he had missed Hans' confession, but this is weak evidence at best.

Conclusion:
I see no reason to suspect Hiraki in particular of being a wolf.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1196 (isolation #22) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:53 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Likewise nothing to say about Hans and Fred/Darklyn (except for "where's Darklyn and why hasn't he been replaced yet"). Hans only even mentions Fred twice, once to say he's not included in his readlist and once in the context of a push on QT:
In post 536, Superhans wrote:hi QT

like your scum push on Frederick and on Omega.

What about your read on Spades? Why from scum to null?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1208 (isolation #23) » Tue Mar 28, 2017 5:06 am

Post by Umlaut »

Spoiler: Interactions between Hans and Spade_Ace
In post 155, Superhans wrote:5 to lynch.

Space Ace is at L1
Probably not significant. I do want to say it's a little unlikely for Hans to screw up his partner's name.

Later on, Hans votes Spade and they have a little conversation.
In post 286, Spade_Ace wrote:
In post 283, Superhans wrote:
In post 281, Spade_Ace wrote:
In post 278, Superhans wrote:VOTE: SpadeAce

L2
Bad vote Hans.
Why do you deserve to live, Spady? What are you actually doing to deserve not being lynched today?
No offense. But that is a stupid question. I deserved to be killed if you think am a scum not based on my activity. And if activity is the parameter, then there are others who deserve to eat rope before me.

Don't you think it is weird the way QT is pushing for my lynch without giving any reason? I have played with transcend before and he knows I am an easy lynch. If I do end up getting lynched today, lynch QT the next day. Am almost certain they are scum.
So first of all, Spade's tone here does not exactly give me a warm towny feeling. You would think something like "Spade never comes out and says 'I'm a bad suspect,' only 'other people are better suspects'" is too obvious to be a legit tell, but every time I tell someone off because that's too stupid to work, it ends up working, so.

Aside from that, though, Hans' push actually is not very good ("What are you doing to deserve not being lynched?"), and doesn't seem like enough reason to pick one person out of twelve as your top suspect,
especially
not if you're evil and can pick whoever is easiest to push without worrying about whether they're really truly scum. Making a lame unconvincing push like this is suggestive of distancing.

Hans' additional explanations for his vote don't really help:
In post 296, Superhans wrote:Voted Spade because i thought his iso was just filler.
In post 300, Superhans wrote:I voted Spade cos i agree it is a nice place for my vote to be.
In post 305, Superhans wrote:my vote on spade wasn't because i specifically scum read him. i just didn't like his content.
This all contributes to the idea that Hans doesn't really want Spade lynched.

Gradually Hans comes around to a town lean on Spade:
{LUV, Matt, Riley}
{Spade}
{Chilled Tea, QT}
{BTD6, Lucca, Grey}
{Omega}
(SPOILER ALERT: Hans later denies ever having townread Spade.)

Conversely there is Spade's read on Hans:
In post 447, Spade_Ace wrote:Hans: NULL/Town Lean
To me, he looks like a townie who says scummy stuff. A townie who is concerned about other's perception of himself and worried that others might scumread him. Can relate to it. He is quite open about his thought process. I doubt whether scum would flipflop so eaily especially when pressurized by someone else. Him defending Cake 381, also seems town indicative. It will be worrisome only if he has done something similar as Scum. Haven't read the game that Lucaa posted.
This read pings me hard.
  • "Scummy stuff" is by definition the sort of stuff that scum are more likely to say than town.
  • Being so worried about being scumread is a fairly reliable scumtell.
  • Townreading a person specifically for flipflopping is pretty dubious.
  • The remaining reason for a townread ("defending Cake") is just not enough to overwhelm the rest of this.
  • The "it will be worrisome if" seems to be leaving wiggle room to reverse the read if necessary.
(His read on Grey seems artificial as well -- Grey's play in this game is hard to be null on.)

Upon questioning, Hans' read on Spade seems to be, "I find him a little suspicious, but I don't really think he's scum, but I sort of do, I guess, but stop saying that I do. Or that I don't."

Later on, after Hans is lynched, Spade comments:
In post 884, Spade_Ace wrote:@grey nice work. I thought hans was town for sure. Meta helped you huh?
Hold on a minute here...
In post 447, Spade_Ace wrote:Hans: NULL/Town Lean
In post 884, Spade_Ace wrote:I thought hans was town for sure.
In post 447, Spade_Ace wrote:Hans: NULL/Town Lean
In post 884, Spade_Ace wrote:I thought hans was town for sure.
Obvious defense: "Spade gradually became more sure Hans was town. It happens."

Okay, but in that case why did he offer
not a single word
in defense of Hans in 15+ pages between those two posts? When exactly did this read change, and why would Spade keep it to himself when Hans was on the chopping block? One possibility is that he's just lazy, and to be fair Spade had only one post in that period which was essentially a prod dodge. But another possibility is that Spade couldn't decide what side of the wagon he wanted to be on. The scum dilemma when your buddy is up for lynch is, "I want to defend him if and only if defending him will actually save him; I want to bus him if and only if he's dying whether I bus him or not." It seems like Hans couldn't cleanly be put in either of these categories, which is likely to lead to indecisiveness on his buddy's part. Spade's period of inactivity fits right in to this -- he disappears just as the Hans wagon stops building, and as a result never has to take a position on it.


Conclusion:
I still like the Spade wagon more than the Kop wagon.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1260 (isolation #24) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:24 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1237, -Grey- wrote:If Spade is scum, he's probably mafia.

I feel better about Hiraki as a Hans partner.

Although... it wouldn't be terrible to hit mafia today to bring their numbers down, either.

VOTE: Spade
What the...?

Firstly, if you think Hiraki is Hans' partner you should be voting him, period. We need to stop the nightkills first.

Secondly, where is this opinion coming from? What has Hiraki done to make you think wolf?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1261 (isolation #25) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:01 am

Post by Umlaut »

On second thought hitting mafia is still a net plus, though wolf is preferable. Still want an explanation of the read, though.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1286 (isolation #26) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 5:52 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Not sure I buy Grey's reasoning; at least, I've never seen a no-kill happen just because scum failed to get in a kill on time. I think it's more likely the wolf is deliberately no-killing to delay losing to the Mafia and give the town more chances to catch them, which would suggest the wolf thinks he has a better chance of winning this way, i.e. that he thinks we're more likely to lynch two Mafia before we lynch him. This makes me want to look more closely at players who have been widely townread or just not really scrutinized.

That said,
VOTE: Not_Mafia

Not like we're lynching anyone else today, so we might as well get it over with.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1298 (isolation #27) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:46 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1287, Aristophanes wrote:Why do they want me dead so badly when I ain't done shit??
This is actually a good question (no offense to Ari). Technically the first time was on Riley Cake, so it's the slot Mafia is interested in, not the player. But what about it?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1300 (isolation #28) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:19 am

Post by Umlaut »

Oh right. Who was Ari again?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1308 (isolation #29) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:22 am

Post by Umlaut »

@Grey
I still want you to explain the wolfread on Hiraki.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1317 (isolation #30) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:58 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1315, -Grey- wrote:Also, if NM is going to play like scum, I'm going to treat him like Scum.

There is no town motivation whatsoever in only posting to quick-hammer wagons, and no excuses acceptable for defending it.
I think NM is probably scum for the quickhammer (pending a quick meta dive), but this pings me. It feels like it's preparing to argue tomorrow that lynching NM was righteous even if he flips town.
-Grey- wrote:
In post 1308, Umlaut wrote:
@Grey
I still want you to explain the wolfread on Hiraki.
I don't give a fuck what you want.
Given that your last major contribution to this game was strongarming a lynch on Kop while patting yourself on the back for so cleverly rooting him out, I think you should actually make this case if you want anyone to listen to it.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1352 (isolation #31) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:10 am

Post by Umlaut »

I don't think NM is a werewolf. If he is, his behavior is borderline game-throwing. He's either Mafia or town (probably Mafia).

I don't understand why anyone is interested in voting someone other than NM right now. If we lynch a non-Mafia slot today, tomorrow is lylo. Do you really want him around for that?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1355 (isolation #32) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:21 am

Post by Umlaut »

Give me the case on Hiraki and maybe I'll consider it. Don't just keep saying how totally scum he is.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1372 (isolation #33) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:33 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1368, BTD6_maker wrote:The simple flaw in this is that Not Mafia is not automatically Mafia.
I don't see how this relates to anything I said, or how it relates to your argument below.

I didn't say he's automatically Mafia. What I said was, if it comes down to lylo I'm going to want him lynched anyway, and since he's a hindrance there's no reason to lynch him later as opposed to now.
In post 1368, BTD6_maker wrote:Suppose WW killed a Townie. Then today would be LyLo for Mafia. On the other hand, suppose WW killed Mafia. Then it would be much worse for Mafia. While I am not saying that it is impossible, I am saying that it is unlikely that Mafia wanted to risk having 1 Mafia and 2 non-Mafia in the list, probably opting for 3 non-Mafia. I think that if Not Mafia is indeed Mafia, it means that they thought WW would think that no Mafia were on the list, as if WW thought that Mafia were on the list they are likely to think that it is Not Mafia and kill there, and I think that given Not Mafia's quickhammer it is likely that WW thought Not Mafia was Mafia. (Indeed, many players at the moment think this).
This was hard to pick apart, but I think what you're saying is this:
  1. The Mafia would only put a mafioso on the list if they were confident that person wouldn't actually be killed.
  2. The Werewolves would prefer to kill a mafioso over a townie.
  3. By 2, one would expect the wolf to kill the scummiest person on the list.
  4. By 1 and 3, the Mafia wouldn't put a mafioso as the scummiest person on the list.
  5. But Not_Mafia
    is
    the scummiest person on the list.
  6. By 4 and 5, Not_Mafia isn't mafia.
I guess that makes sense, though I think premise 1 may be faulty. Mafia might put a mafioso on the list
if
said mafioso were doomed anyway, and it's at least plausible that they thought NM was doomed anyway after yesterday. I don't really have another objection other than the typical rubbish "but what if that's what they
want
you to think," but something just feels unconvincing about this.
In post 1368, BTD6_maker wrote:One other point I would like to mention is that if Not Mafia were Mafia they would likely be more involved in the game, trying to do a lot more than two quickhammers and nothing else. Two quickhammers and no other content is not something that I would expect from anyone engaged in the game, and from my experience Mafia try to be engaged in the game.
Then I guess my experience doesn't match yours, because in my experience level of engagement is in general not alignment-indicative. (It may be indicative on a player-to-player basis, but there it can go either way depending on the player.)
In post 1368, BTD6_maker wrote:No content from a slot is anti-Town, in that it lowers Town's chances. This does not in any way make it scummy. For it to be scummy, it has to be more likely to be done by scum than Town. In my experience this is not the case.
This is fair, but the problem with NM is not primarily the lack of content.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1373 (isolation #34) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:11 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1350, Infinity 324 wrote:I don't think n_m's slot has done almost anything AI, and I only have him as scum based on PoE, so I'm not really comfortable lynching him yet.
How long does a slot have to do nothing for you to become comfortable lynching it?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1428 (isolation #35) » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:11 pm

Post by Umlaut »

@Mod I'll be V/LA Friday thru Tuesday.
Probably not completely inactive but I'll be out of town and probably pretty busy.

I want to keep hyping up the NM wagon, but if "he shows zero interest in catching scum and quickhammered two days in a row" doesn't sell it, I don't know what else I can say.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1430 (isolation #36) » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:34 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Hmm, can anyone with NM meta say whether he's the type to take refuge in audacity as scum?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1432 (isolation #37) » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:39 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Not quite what I asked... I mean does he try to be read as "too scummy to be scum."
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1473 (isolation #38) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 5:36 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1459, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1456, davesaz wrote:
Any objections to shortening night phases to 24 hours?
Nope, and this is a town-sided question considering only WW has a night action.

If anyone objects, guess who we'll lynch.
Why would you tip your hand like this?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1477 (isolation #39) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:00 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1474, -Grey- wrote:Mafia has day talk, so I'll give you three guesses where I'd have complained if I was Mafia, and I fucking dare you to try and call me a wolf.
Why is wolf less plausible than Mafia?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1481 (isolation #40) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:09 am

Post by Umlaut »

Anyway, my three guesses are:
  • in public, if you didn't want the wolf to reveal himself
  • in the Mafia thread, if you did want the wolf to reveal himself (except you would say "if someone objects they might be the wolf")
  • directly to the mod, if you were actually just concerned about fairness
Point taken about the Hans lynch. Though I know you're keen on high-risk gambits as town, so might still have to check your scum meta.

Pedit:
Does anyone deny that -Grey- is the ONLY reason Hans was lynched? I wasn't there.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1490 (isolation #41) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:28 am

Post by Umlaut »

UNVOTE: Not_Mafia

Getting cold feet on this, and if we're wrong we could potentially lose overnight. I want to review his meta for myself instead of taking someone's word for it. I only had one game with him before and he was a d1 mislynch there.

Actually, given that we're possibly in mylo depending on what happens tonight, should we consider no-lynching?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1498 (isolation #42) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 3:19 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Just noticed something while rereading Grey.

I think he and Hiraki are Mafia together.

VOTE: -Grey-

Wall of explanation incoming when I have the chance.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1504 (isolation #43) » Fri Apr 07, 2017 3:36 am

Post by Umlaut »

Swamped today and on a plane later but I will find time to write up my case.

Ari, I made a new account because everyone said the old name was a pain to type (which it was), and also it was breaking automatic vote counters.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1556 (isolation #44) » Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:08 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1546, Not_Mafia wrote:Thinking the hit list last night was the mafia team, mafia knew Wolf couldn't kill and all 3 haven't done much, can see them nominating themselves as WIFOM, all 3 yesterday were content to just go with the flow and did nothing to direct the game, which tells me the status quo of the game is working for them right now
I would be more likely to believe this if the list were three all-new people.

If we think there's mafia on that list, it's probably whichever of Hiraki or Uzi looks towniest. Which I guess is Uzi. But I feel kind of dumb being suspicious of someone for looking towny.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1561 (isolation #45) » Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:26 am

Post by Umlaut »

Ari, explain how the wolf can meet their win condition by claiming, because I'm not seeing it.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1578 (isolation #46) » Wed Apr 12, 2017 3:06 am

Post by Umlaut »

To be fair, I did
want
to be on the Spade wagon, I just wanted to resolve my concerns about Grey jumping on there first.

(Incidentally that was what led me to think of a Grey/Hiraki team: Grey's jumping back and forth between "Hiraki is probably mafia, but let's lynch the wolf" and "Hiraki is probably the wolf, but let's lynch mafia.")
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1579 (isolation #47) » Wed Apr 12, 2017 3:12 am

Post by Umlaut »

Also I'm pretty much out of ideas on who to lynch. Need to do some heavy rereading, starting with Hiraki and Uzi.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1582 (isolation #48) » Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:48 am

Post by Umlaut »

Spoiler: PimHel/Hiraki's voting record
  • Day 1
    • : Lil Uzi Vert (L-6)
      (
      Superhans
      was lynched)
  • Day 2
    • :
      Spade_Ace
      (L-4)
    • :
      Kop
      (L-5)
    • :
      Spade_Ace
      (L-4)
    • :
      Kop
      (L-1)
      (
      Kop
      was lynched)
  • Day 3
    • :
      Spade_Ace
      (L-2)
      (
      Spade_Ace
      was lynched)
  • Day 4
    • : Not_Mafia (L-1)
      (
      -Grey-
      was lynched)

Spoiler: Lil Uzi Vert's voting record
  • Day 1
    • :
      -Grey-
      (L-5)
    • :
      Superhans
      (L-4)
      (
      Superhans
      was lynched)
  • Day 2
    • :
      Kop
      (L-2)
      (
      Kop
      was lynched)
  • Day 3
    • No votes.

      (
      Spade_Ace
      was lynched)
  • Day 4
    • : Not_Mafia (L-2)
    • :
      -Grey-
      (L-1)
      (
      -Grey-
      was lynched)

I want to review Hiraki's day 2 progression more closely.

Uzi, why did you vote for Grey yesterday?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1583 (isolation #49) » Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:13 am

Post by Umlaut »

Uzi, I asked you a question and you've been on MS since.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1584 (isolation #50) » Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:42 am

Post by Umlaut »

Happy birthday, Infinity!
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1586 (isolation #51) » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:30 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1585, Hiraki wrote:I'm ok with Lil Uzi today. I haven't done my full due diligence but he's contributed nothing to the gamestate today.
This is a really laid-back attitude to have at lylo.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1593 (isolation #52) » Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:18 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Uzi, who do you want to lynch today and why?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1595 (isolation #53) » Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:08 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Is too lazy to be scum a thing? Because I feel like Uzi is too lazy to be scum.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1597 (isolation #54) » Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:34 pm

Post by Umlaut »

I don't think Hiraki can be mafia.
  • I'm town.
  • Aristophanes isn't mafia.
  • Hiraki and Infinity 324 aren't mafia together (they are trying to lynch one another today).
  • Hiraki and Not_Mafia aren't mafia together (Hiraki put NM at L-1 yesterday).
Under these assumptions, if Hiraki is mafia, his buddies would have to be Lil Uzi Vert and BTD6_maker. But BTD has just said Hiraki and Uzi are his lynchpool for today. There is no reason to do that at this point in the game if they're all scum together.

This means three of {Infinity 324, Not_Mafia, Lil Uzi Vert, BTD6_maker} are mafia.

BTD or possibly Uzi is the townie/wolf. The other two are definitely mafia.

VOTE: Infinity 324
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1604 (isolation #55) » Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:59 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1598, Infinity 324 wrote:You make the assumption that scum wouldn't bus, which I disagree with. Scum bus all the time in lylo even when they shouldn't.
You don't bus someone by waiting three three days and then putting their wagon to L-1 after it's already stagnated. If scum!Hiraki wanted to bus scum!NM, he'd have done it right out of the gate on d4.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1608 (isolation #56) » Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:58 am

Post by Umlaut »

VOTE: Hiraki
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1612 (isolation #57) » Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:08 am

Post by Umlaut »

Infinity's counterpoints really moved me. I'm glad he talked me out of that terrible case on him.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1614 (isolation #58) » Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:15 am

Post by Umlaut »

Hiraki, are you a wolf? 4realz now.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1620 (isolation #59) » Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:38 am

Post by Umlaut »

Eh, I think you get a pass since you were evil anyway. For what it's worth I would never have guessed you for the wolf. If that N_M wagon had gone through it would have been anyone's game.

I liked this setup, it really kept me engaged. Even at the end I never felt like we could just coast to victory.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1629 (isolation #60) » Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:46 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1623, Infinity 324 wrote:At daystart I knew we should've lynched n_m but someone convinced me that scum might put their scumbuddies on the kill list expecting a no kill.
Yeah, that was BTD.
In post 1627, Transcend wrote:Oh yeah forgot to say

The grey lynch was TERRIBLE

And anyone on that lynch should be ashamed
I'm not ashamed! :D
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
User avatar
Umlaut
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Umlaut
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6053
Joined: August 3, 2016
Location: Somewhere out there

Post Post #1630 (isolation #61) » Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:46 am

Post by Umlaut »

I still can't believe that Grey wagon went through before I could even case him.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs

Return to “Completed Open Games”