OPEN 687: JUNGLE OLIGARCHY (GAME OVER)

[havingfitz]

Welcome, Havingfitz.
You have 5mins to catch up or I hammer you.

Thanks.

I'm screwed then.

UNVOTE:

I'll try to be caught up by tomorrow before my weekend v/LA kicks in.

[havingfitz]

I haven't read the game yet other than to log votes and the odd post here or there. Pre-read observations are:

While anti-town may outnumber town 5 to 4, on the bright side the odds of hitting anti-town are pretty good

I doubt mafia are putting themselves up for the wolves to consider killing so I'm assuming Hellfire and kmd are most definitely NOT mafia. One or both of them could however still be werewolves. Though I don't think their survival after having their names put up for consideration is any stronger indication they are WW than town because WIFOM and it assumes mafia was lucky enough to include one or both WWs in their hitlist.

Sooo Hellfire and kmd NOT mafia...but still potentially WWs.

I like what I've seen of Vedith so far. He seems to be genuinely trying to figure shit out.

More as I catch up.

[havingfitz]

Weekend check in. Pardon the lack of posting. Father's day and RL will prevent it for the most part today as well. Will catch up nlt tomorrow.

[havingfitz]

Is the goal to get mafia moreso than WW? Or vice versa?

I was of the opinion either anti town faction would be good lynched but preferable WWs since they have nks.

[havingfitz]

We need to hit Mafia, otherwise we risk Mafia having 3 to town 2 and WW 2...

Or 3M, 3T, 1WW. Right?

Still goes against my grain to not think killing those who can kill is optimal. Although the only way we probably have of thinning the mafia pool is by lynch. So pffft.

VOTE: Hiraki L-1.

[havingfitz]

okay I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the remaining town is NOT in btd6/vedith/fitz/dunnstral

Your limb broke.

[havingfitz]

I think that the werewolves are Dunnstral and Fitz.

WTF? How are you coming to this concoction?

[havingfitz]

That is anti climatic.

Is there nothing to say, fitz?

What would have been climatic? I'm mid catchup on a shitload of posts overnight. I'll opine when I'm done. If you gave questions I'm here.

[havingfitz]

I hadn't tried to figure out mafia or WWs specifically other than eliminating kmd as mafia...which would point towards a mafia alignment for Dunnstral. And his play yesterday was most def not from town.

I'm leaning town on Vedith and Realeo. So I'd vote most anyone else though apparently it's better if we hit mafia.

WWs - kmd + ?
Mafia - Dunnstral, ?, ?
? - BTD, RC, Comm
Town - havingfitz, Realeo, Vedith

VOTE: Dunnstral

I'd vote BTD but vote is on Dunn atm as he is stronger scum read.

[havingfitz]

eliminating kmd as mafia...which would point towards a mafia alignment for Dunnstral

What? How is that possible?

Why is it not pissible?

I'm basing this on his D1 vote on kmd. I don't think WWs would take that chance. I'm confident kmd isn't mafia so that points to Dunn being mafia.

[havingfitz]

Pissible?

Ebwop....POSSIBLE

[havingfitz]

So let me drop the act. RC, I know you are werewolf, ok?

Can you explain this?

[havingfitz]

Everyone has a fair chance to win without trying to screw town.

Any win by mafia or WWs sounds like it screws town to me. What are you going on about?

And if you were town why would you care whether non-town had a fair chance to win?

[havingfitz]

Also if you weren't mafia, I wouldn't have such a tough time gaining votes on you. I mean hell, I'm town, if you were town OR WW, then 3 mafia would be happy to vote you out with just a single other townie voting you to lynch you.

Doesn't this apply even moreso to the BTD wagon which is at L-2?

Who are your town reads again?

[havingfitz]

Comm...how about answering my question to you in my last post?

Dunnstral thought hellfire could be scum (1481)...then after RC joins the game and has a D4 post explosion and casts suspicions towards Dunn, Dunn decides he's "not going to let a lynch go through on" RC despite acting like he didn't even know who RC replaced. Which I think is BS (the feigning not knowing who RC replaced).

Then within 11 minutes Comm is in the thread linking Dunnstral to RC as mafia based on Dunn's unwarranted "not going to let a lynch go through on" RC crap. Which leads me to believe there is a nice mafia PT discussion between Comm and Dunn discussing the merits of linking Dunn (who should be a concensus lynch candidate today for his terrible play yesterday) to RC. A player scum should know is going to be extremely active and could be hard to get a lynch on.

And yet where is all the Comm suspicions towards Dunn? RC has one vote on him and the fact he hasn't been power lynched by the 3 mafia in the game means he must be mafia.
That same logic could be used towards Dunn (who you also suspect is mafia) since he has one vote on him and hasn't been power lynched by the 3 mafia.

And EVEN BETTER...the question you ignore by me regarding BTD. Who you do not think is mafia...you think he is a WW...which mafia would LOVE to get lynched....he has THREE votes on him and yet he still lives. One vote by Realeo (who you think is town), one vote being by Vedith (who you just call WW along with BTD) and one by RC (who you mafia read).

So based on your own reads and your own quicklynch theory....WTF hasn't mafia lynched BTD the wolf?

Answer....because he's fcuking mafia and mafia do not want to go down a man.

smh.....just ignore my question though Comm and this post too.

Revised reads:

Town - havingfitz, Realeo, Vedith
Mafia - Comm, Dunnstral and BTD
WW - kmd, RC

If I'm wrong about Realeo or Vedith I could see being off on one of the WWs.

Not as doubtful on my mafia grouping. Any of those three will work.

VOTE: BTD

[havingfitz]

There are a LOT of people simply avoiding the thread right now.

[havingfitz]

What do you want me to add?

Wasn't necessarily addressing you. At least you've given reads and votes. Any discussion is good but if you're good then you're good.

[havingfitz]

Hey Fitz, nice wall-post. It'd be nice if it didn't have an agenda behind it. Again, I know I'm town, I believe Realeo is town, for me that leaves ONE townie spot out there and I find it funny you all are still trying to pretend to all be town. THERE'S THREE townie spots out of 8 players. I'm pretty confident I know Realeo is the second townie.

Everyone posting in this game has an agenda…to win. Town. Mafia. Wolves. So you can keep your “agenda” shade as it’s impotent. The
rest of this sentence is equally useless. You think Realeo is town. There’s three town left. Blah blah blah.

Now maybe you missed it, you know, since right now you're not interested in actually reading what I say and understanding it, you're interested in combating it and refuting my points because you can't let me lynch mafia today.

I don’t recall combating and refuting your points as much as I was trying to get across the logic you are applying to RC that is equally applicable to Dunn and 3X more applicable to BTD….which you are blatantly ignoring. Why…because you are both mafia and want to maintain your numbers. To eliminate a mafia member it is going to take all 3 town + both werewolves….. For you to think BTD is a WW OR “even possibly the third town” and still exist given he’s been at L-2 for ~24 hours and at L-1 since this morning just shows how conveniently blind you are to the fact BTD can be no other than mafia. If he wasn’t mafia he’d be lynched by now. Unless you think me, Vedith and RC are the mafia team. But you think Vedith is a WW and you think Dunn is mafia so BTD should be gone by now.

Want to know what I'm referring to?

We need town and WW's to lynch him today, BTD is obviously a wolf

or even possibly the third
townie

with how easily the mafia are willing to pile onto him.

You need to continue the theory BTD is WW (OR “even possibly the third town”) to excuse yourself from bussing your partner. LOL

Yeah, that's right, BTD might be town, but I know for a fact he ain't mafia. If he's town it'd explain the votes better or either Vedith/Dunn is actually town and not realizing RC is mafia, not WW.

You need to continue the theory BTD is WW (OR “even possibly the third town”) to excuse yourself from bussing your partner. LOL

And IF you were town…you would have no way in hell of knowing definitively “for a fact” that BTD “ain’t mafia.” Earlier today he was no better than a gut read as a WW but now you KNOW FOR A FACT he “ain’t mafia.” Bullshit. The only way you know that is if YOU are mafia which you claim you aren’t.

Also how convenient that the guy everyone is pushing is not even here, LET'S LYNCH THE INACTIVE SLOT GUYS!

Flail for your partner. Who cares if he isn’t here? The town are much clearer than the scum…and there are 5 scum. No matter what his alignment is the game would not be over if he was lynched and didn’t flip mafia. But I see no way he flips town…if he was town he would be lynched by now. So worst case he does flip wolf (I doubt) and we repeat the hunt tomorrow.

Also Fitz, do the VCA. Do you REALLY believe all mafia voted off Hiraki???? Hellfire, which is now RC was one of the ones not voting. But you know, ignore my points on RC being mafia, because fuck it, scum outnumbers town so much that they can blantantly disregard anything I say. I NEED both wolves + both townies to lynch RC. There's no mafia team that is helping me lynch him. So you know, the fact you guys are all on BTD, it's gonna be funny if I manage to lynch RC and he flips red with ya'll except Realeo being on someone
else and fighting against RC's lynch.

No. Where do you get that idea and how is it even applicable? I think BTD and Dunn are mafia and they voted Hiraki. So what? And I know I’m town and I lean town on Vedith. So what? And I lean WW on kmd. SO what does that VCA tell you? Nothing is what that tells you. You’re just posting useless crap hoping something diverts town from the truth. That BTD is mafia.

Realeo, you're being conned man. BTD is at L1 and quite possibly going to die by the end of this real life day if he's town, the other wolf might mis-hammer. If he's wolf, we need to keep the 3rd townie from helping lynch him. If he's wolf, he should have a buddy protecting him, if he were mafia you'd think the votes would be harder to collect than they are right now.

Appeal to your town read. Whoa is Comm. Whoa is town. Realeo is leading town to a non-mafia lynch. LOL…..I think Realeo is town and I think BTD is mafia so everything looks good fmpov atm.

I'm confident in BTD not being mafia. Just trust me for a single day before we fuck up and mafia gain the upper hand.

AtE…..LOL…..good stuff Comm. /jk

[havingfitz]

Also...

v/LA until Monday June 26th.

[havingfitz]

So ignore my reply to your VCA nonsense.
Ignore the fact mafia could have killed a non-mafia BTD by now.
How is BTD not being mafia a fact?

[havingfitz]

What's the preferred lynch today? WW or mafia? Or anything not town...

[havingfitz]

reads:

Town - havingfitz, Realeo, Vedith
Mafia - Comm, Dunnstral and

BTD

WW - kmd, RC

If I'm wrong about Realeo or Vedith I could see being off on one of the WWs.

Not as doubtful on my mafia grouping. Any of those three will work.

VOTE: BTD

^ This still.

[havingfitz]

I'll try to check in around this time tomorrow but any more than like a page or two and it's not happening.

What does this even mean? More than a page or two and you won't check back in?

Active lurking through the whole game. Odds are you're scum....which flavor not a concern.

VOTE: kmd

My alternate vote would be Dunn.

[havingfitz]

Quick questions, does the mafia benefits from lynching town or both anti-faction needs to lynch each other?

I don't know if hitting town or the opposing faction is in scum's best interest. I know it's in town's best interest to hit scum regardless of their faction.

[havingfitz]

Active lurking through the whole game

@Realeo,

This is not accurate. I based this comment on my perception of kmd since I've joined. He has actually posted quite a lot. Just not since I joined imo.

I skimmed the game when I joined because 60+ pages near deadline. As I recall I liked kmd early but his continually surviving the lists and poe have me convinced he's most likely WW. If he's mafia I'd be shocked.

[havingfitz]

But Vedith, in D4, Comm decided to push for Dunn. They can't be scum together.

Comm wanted to push RC more.

Comm was a lone vote on Dunn for less than 2 pages. I wouldn't clear Comm from being scum with Dunn based on that.

More mafia clearing for Comm is his hammer on BTD....
but even that could have been a no other option than to bus vote.

It does put Comm behind kmd and Dunn for me wrt suspicions.

[havingfitz]

Zzzzz...there's still 4 scum left.

For town...you only need to determine one other player is town to give you an 80% chance of hitting scum. And if you're good and have both your remaining town id'd your odds of hitting scum go up to 100%.

So to anyone not voting......why not?

[havingfitz]

I was town. And my reads are 100% right.

I hate this. You're L-1.

@kmd....I'm not voting you based on the amount of posting you've done...I'm voting you because I think you're a WW.. Your last post that I had quoted just struck a nerve with me and didn't make sense. Regardless of your alignment I hope your rl workload lightens up.

[havingfitz]

I think we need Fitz and RC to vote up Vedith,

Town - havingfitz, Realeo, Vedith

[havingfitz]

Ok...no one seems to be feeling WW kmd so I'll go for mafia Dunnstral.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Also...

mod...I will be traveling to a tropical island tomorrow, ergo I'll be v/la from 1-9 July.

I should be able to make the occasional post but posting will definitely be at a minimum.

[havingfitz]

Checking in while on v/LA. Will try to give thoughts in next day or two and vote.

I'm town so anyone pressing me as mafia or WW is probably mafia or WW.

I've pressed Dunn and BTD so anyone who thinks I'm mafia is crazy.
And I'm not WW...which I think will be proven if kmd is ever lynched.

More when I have time.

[havingfitz]

That said: Fitz being willing to vote KMD strongly suggests that I'm wrong about something here.

Uh....I was voting him most of yesterday iirc.

[havingfitz]

If you lynch me now, town lose.
That's down to you.

How is lynching you a town loss now? Are you claiming mafia?

[havingfitz]

Havingfitz, why didn't you hammer?

I didn't realize it was L-1. Vacation has me a bit distracted.

Nice work RC.

Nice work Vedith. I thought you were town and suspected Comm. At least I had Realeo and kmd right (and BTD/ Dunn).

Thanks for nodding Bins.

[havingfitz]

At least I had Realeo and kmd right 

You did? I thought you were scumreading me.

For game I was scumreading you.
In ww pt I knew you weren't mafia.