Open 713: Jungle Republic [Game Over]

[Beefster]

VOTE: Beefster

It's a good policy lynch, and, hey, maybe a wolf or scum to boot.

Do I sense rage?

It's wellfounded tbh. My play over the last while has been lazy and aggravating.

VOTE: Espeonage
because I prefer Umbreon.

[Beefster]

Yeah. Thor's just mad because of how I've been playing in the other game I'm in with him. His vote on me is not AI.

[Beefster]

Sorry. That's the last of it. I just figured it was vague enough that it wouldn't count.

[Beefster]

Thor's town.

that leaves everyone else at 50/50 scum.

[Beefster]

Just to explain myself, Thor's frustration with my playstyle is fresh and looks very town. His defense of half-jokingly PL'ing me is genuine.

[Beefster]

Just to explain myself, Thor's frustration with my playstyle is fresh and looks very town. His defense of half-jokingly PL'ing me is genuine.

Why couldn't I be scum and also honestly consider you a valid policy lynch?

It's certainly possible, but given other evidence (particularly your obvtown response), I just don't think you're scum. I mean, the fact that you're willing to raise this question says something. I probably would have ignored it had I been scum.

I could speculate things like "because it would be too easy", but that's on par with WIFOM in terms of unhelpfulness.

[Beefster]

Looks like scum is already starting to come out of the woodworks. skitter, Korina, and Montosh are all pinging me.

VOTE: Korina

Paradox and wilky are town, I think. Very protown discussion coming from each. I'm more confident with wilky, but it's mostly gut at this point, so we'll see what happens.

[Beefster]

And to explain my scum reads a little bit more:

skitter calling Thor out for going after "low-hanging fruit" looks opportunistic.
Korina lampshading skitter's meta reads as bad followed by a jump on Thor looks scummy and somewhat opportunistic.
Montosh - eh. Sheeping a bit on this one. There's probably some gut in there.

[Beefster]

@Montosh: basically what you're saying is that I'm scum because I defended a player I think is town. IMO, you need some flips before buddying theories hold water.

GoldenParadox is looking suspicious, but I'll admit I'm sheeping wilky somewhat.

Korina vote stays.

[Beefster]

Why not?

Because it's Not_Mafia. That's just how he plays.

[Beefster]

As far as I'm concerned NM is null until we can pin associations by vote patterns.

But I guess I'd be okay lynching him as a last resort if we're 3 days from deadline. 5/11 isn't too bad of odds.

[Beefster]

What do I have to do to get some discussion going on here? This game is as dead as a funeral home!

@mod: perhaps a massprod is in order?

- Prods are issued to anyone and everyone that has not posted within the last 48 hours everytime I check the activity. I check the activity fairly frequently though less so on most weekdays due to being at college.

[Beefster]

It is opportunistic... because NM always plays like this?

What kind of answer is that? And why are you even answering for wilky?

I agree NM is null (though I'm still convinced there's a good chance of finding scum among the lurkers - even if people disagree) but how wilky jumped to that conclusion is beyond me. 2 votes is barely a wagon, and there were other choices with 2 votes too. NM can't possibly know that wilky would be the lynch today it's far too early.

I'm not answering for wilky. Where'd you get that idea? I can't really tell if the vote is opportunistic. And even if it is, I don't think it's AI in this situation.

You ask a lot of questions and I think Espeonage is onto something here.

VOTE: BuJaber

Now that's an opportunistic vote. Interpret it as you so desire.

[Beefster]

BuJaber's reactions to minimal pressure are damning. Lynch nao.

[Beefster]

LaserGuy is town.

Korina and BuJaber are both scum. I can't tell if BuJ's vote is bussing or not, but the're both scum so it doesn't really matter.

[Beefster]

For the record, it's not really the lurking itself that makes you scummy. Lurking is NAI. It's what you are doing with the few posts you have made that makes you scummy.

[Beefster]

I'm in 2 games plus modding 1. What's your point?

[Beefster]

Are you a wolf beef? You're too interested in ending the day early.

Where are you getting that idea?

[Beefster]

Also, that's a loaded question.

Your frustration does not appear genuine.

[Beefster]

Korina and BuJ are both good wagons.

I'd be happy lynching either one at this point.

[Beefster]

I wasn't calling you naive I was saying it would be naive of me. Stating you only want to lynch 2 people is a strategy. But stubbornly sticking to these 2 people would be naive. Therefore taking it literally is you calling me naive. But I concede I'm clearly in the wrong here. Everyone agrees it was scummy so it must be scummy I won't do it in future games.

As for the speed it was within 5 hours or so that 3 people declared they agreed with espeo. Laser didn't actually vote for me but he stated willingness. Fanta especially comes in votes for the hot wagon and leaves yet again.

I think you're exaggerating that I only want to lynch 2 people. It's just you and Korina are the best options right now. We can figure the rest out from there, though I do have a few suspicions.

[Beefster]

Korina: oh come on. You've got a megapost (admittedly, I haven't really read it) and you've put most of us at null?

Seems like you're just spinning your wheels, but you clearly aren't going anywhere.

VOTE: Korina

[Beefster]

Korina: oh come on. You've got a megapost (admittedly, I haven't really read it) and you've put most of us at null?

Seems like you're just spinning your wheels, but you clearly aren't going anywhere.

VOTE: Korina

Ok, the thing is, there's like 200ish posts. I really can't make very conclusive ideas until there's a lot more. A lot of the people are null because there's so little for me to read. What? You expect me to scumread the 5 posts someone's made, when, I know for a fact that there's very little conclusive evidence about it?

No johns. Your post was way longer than anyone is willing to read. If you are going to put the time into a megapost, I sort of expect conclusions rather than an inconclusive summary of a few players' ISOs.

[Beefster]

i'm going to VOTE: korina

Korina is my other scum read and I want to give almost50 a chance to redeem from bujaber's poor play

I agree with this sentiment.

I wish I had more to contribute right now. Just not seeing much progression atm. :-/

[Beefster]

Last scum LaserGuy or Espe because I forgot their posts or Thor because I haven't read any of his posts

Out of those 3 options, I'd put Espeonage on my scum list.

[Beefster]

Also, I hardclaim Citizen rn. I'm a fucking citizen once again, and literally out of half the rolelist being non-citizen roles, I get citizen again. I really don't care if I'm ML'd d1, happens all the time, and idgaf tbh.

If you're this salty about being a VT, why not play role madness?

[Beefster]

Because at this point probability would beg to differ.

Same chance as always. Don't fall prey to the gambler's fallacy.

[Beefster]

So, my entire thing about that, is that I honestly have never seen town trying to set up arguments where they know the exact outcome. It seems like something mafia/wolf would do.

How would I know what the outcome would be?
You're, like Skitter, accussing me of being a mindreader/master manipulator with zero evidence to support said claim, and then acting like it's a valid call.

@Korina - I knew the outcome would be you missing the question, but let's go with this a second time.

@Korina - third time's the charm?

You said so yourself.

Also, I hardclaim Citizen rn. I'm a fucking citizen once again, and literally out of half the rolelist being non-citizen roles, I get citizen again. I really don't care if I'm ML'd d1, happens all the time, and idgaf tbh.

This whole post... just why? It's multiball with only 1 town PR, why'd you even say this? Half non-VT roles means... half VT. 50/50.

I'm feeling kinda like this is fake frustration.

I'm inclined to agree. This kind of frustration is not hard to fake.

[Beefster]

It's real. At this point, I have played around 14 games. Excluding 4 of them, because one of them I replaced into confirmed scum slot, the other was a pure Jester game, the third one was late game, and VT wasn't a possibility that late in, and the last one because it was canned, I have rolled Citizen in over half of them. Probability would beg to differ at this point, that I would get a non-town role. I still haven't and that pisses me off to no end, because I want to finally play as fucking scum. 11H on ToS forums was the closest I've ever gotten to playing a legit scum game, and even if I played scum well that game, I highly doubt I would've won it. So, let's break down the rest of those games then: that leaves 10 games. 1 of them, I got BG. 1 of them, I got Arso (11H), 1 of them, I got vig, but because of someone else in thread, I got force-replaced. That leaves 7 games, this one included. I have played VT in 70% of all my fm games. You don't think I get sick and fucking tired of it, or at this point probability would be in my favor on a literal coin flip? I may be following the gambler's fallacy here, but I honestly think that probability would go my way at this point.

*Sigh*, I kind of believe this, at least enough not to want to lynch Korina right now. He's such lynchbait it's going to be a very low information flip regardless of his alignment.

I mean, he could be faking it, but without additional evidence, I think you're right about lynchbait.

Well then...

VOTE: Espeonage

He has a certain quality of lurkiness that I find suspicious. Also seems to be preoccupied with this being multiball IIRC.

[Beefster]

I probably should put more thought into that, but I don't really like not having a vote on someone.

[Beefster]

Right, so i've just iso'd Laserguy and his iso does not read as active lurker at all so for now

VOTE: Dr Fanta

I agree. I'll sheep this.

VOTE: Dr Fanta

[Beefster]

Not sure about Korina's little meltdown here and wether it is genuine or not. People seem to be leaving the wagon for it though which begs the question if a meltdown is all it takes to dispel the wagon on you how easy is this game going to be for scum...

The thing with Korina's reaction that's bothering me is that (excluding playing role-madness only) the most common role someone can roll is VT and by a large majority aswell and korina will know that so why get worked up when you roll the most common role most of the time.

I think it's something we should revisit first thing D2.

Also, it's enough for me to put him on my blacklist for a while. If you melt down or replace out every time you roll VT, that effectively turns your slot into an easy read and that sort of ruins the game.

[Beefster]

It's real. At this point, I have played around 14 games. Excluding 4 of them, because one of them I replaced into confirmed scum slot, the other was a pure Jester game, the third one was late game, and VT wasn't a possibility that late in, and the last one because it was canned, I have rolled Citizen in over half of them. Probability would beg to differ at this point, that I would get a non-town role. I still haven't and that pisses me off to no end, because I want to finally play as fucking scum. 11H on ToS forums was the closest I've ever gotten to playing a legit scum game, and even if I played scum well that game, I highly doubt I would've won it. So, let's break down the rest of those games then: that leaves 10 games. 1 of them, I got BG. 1 of them, I got Arso (11H), 1 of them, I got vig, but because of someone else in thread, I got force-replaced. That leaves 7 games, this one included. I have played VT in 70% of all my fm games. You don't think I get sick and fucking tired of it, or at this point probability would be in my favor on a literal coin flip? I may be following the gambler's fallacy here, but I honestly think that probability would go my way at this point.

*Sigh*, I kind of believe this, at least enough not to want to lynch Korina right now. He's such lynchbait it's going to be a very low information flip regardless of his alignment.

I mean, he could be faking it, but without additional evidence, I think you're right about lynchbait.

Well then...

VOTE: Espeonage

He has a certain quality of lurkiness that I find suspicious. Also seems to be preoccupied with this being multiball IIRC.

what is this? I'm VLA and this IS multiball???

TBF I actually didn't notice that you were VLA. With your spectacular entrance, I'd say that changes things. In hindsight, I should have unvoted instead.

[Beefster]

Thor is lynch bait. There are probably 3 +- 1 scum on that wagon.

Dr Fanta, Korina, or A50 are the 3 viable options.

[Beefster]

> Dr Fanta, lynched D1, was a Seer

[Beefster]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Beefster]

Paradox is a weird one there's not really anyone it implicates or points in a direction too.

This is wolf

Wolf as in scum in general or as in wolf specifically?

[Beefster]

I wouldn't be caught dead using wolf as a general term for scum

wilky killed TGP hunting for mafia, now he's deflecting

Oops. Didn't notice you answered my question before asking it.

[Beefster]

Also, I realized that kill associations would imply wolf in this game, so it's not necessarily scummy to faction-hunt in this particular case.

I will agree that wilky's opening comment is fishy. Fishy enough to vote? For now.

VOTE: wilky

[Beefster]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Beefster]

Tchill can be town.

[Beefster]

That feels too scummy to be scummy.

Surely with your join date you can't be that dumb.

Will ISO Thor.

[Beefster]

Eh... Too much skitter v Thor to sort out... At this point, I think they're both scum.

Oh man, Skitter set me up in an argument where people would have to choose sides!

Skitter is, once again, creating a case based around calling scumhunting scummy. Even in the theory world where A50 and I are scum - she's accusing us of thinking;

That Fanta was scum.

VOTE: Skitter

Thor has this tunnel thing going and is pretty much just going after low-hanging fruit aside from that.

VOTE: Thor

[Beefster]

VOTE: A50
I'll sheep this. His slot was suspect before anyway.

[Beefster]

There were five wagons at the time: You, Thor, wilky, Dr. Fanta, and A50. I had Town on you and Thor, so I wasn't going to vote there. I was suspicious of everyone on the wilky wagon and didn't want to sheep them. It was a toss-up for me between A50 and Dr. Fanta, and my scumread on Fanta was stronger.

OK fair enough. What's your present read on me/thor/A50?

You're a strong Townread.

When I started writing this, I was going to say that I have Thor as a Town lean and A50 as a scum lean, but in trying to wrap my head about the fact that we only have five townies in a ten person game, I think they're actually both PoE in my scum pile right now. Both are due for a reread at some point when I have access to enough scotch to get me through all of those walls.

I suspect LaserGuy investigated skitter on N1, though that would only catch wolves anyway, so it would seem a bit odd to classify that as a strong townread...

My search for breadcrumbs has been inconclusive.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Beefster]

wilky might be a good option as well, but LaserGuy would have claimed outright if he had seered him, rather softing in agreement with Not_Mafia

[Beefster]

Also going to

VOTE: Beefster

Until they can answer this.

VOTE: Beefster

The other one on my list. Why the Fanta vote (since you didn't really get into it much Day 1) and why the votes without comment? You either spend the day sheeping other people or doing this. Care to give us some of your thoughts?

Mostly sheeping. Too lazy to give reasons.

I don't remember my reasoning for Fanta votes. It probably had something to do with their self-consciousness or something. Point is, I thought they were scum.

[Beefster]

I should ISO Montosh so I can sheep correctly.

[Beefster]

VOTE: wilky

Read through his ISO, yeah definitely went after low-hanging fruit. I'll give this one a go.

Looks like a reluctant bus.

VOTE: Montosh

It's a sheepable wagon.

[Beefster]

Thor's a good option as well, but not as good as Montosh.

[Beefster]

Would you rather lynch wolf or mafia?

That's a loaded question.

[Beefster]

More votes on Montosh.

[Beefster]

*facepalm*

Lynching the wolf turns this into nightless, so I guess lynching wolves is the way to go... But like Esp said, lynching town is still bad.

Get those votes off me. I may not be playing very towny, but you're dead wrong.

[Beefster]

Who's scum?

Montosh is the only one I'm super sure of. I could see any of the other four of you as scum, but I'd have to take a closer look.

I also just realized that there are only 6 players left.

I think TChill has properly redeemed the Korina slot, so the remaining scum is in {Thor, Not_Mafia, Espeonage}

or perhaps a better format: (from most likely to be scum to least)
- Montosh
- Thor
- Not_Mafia
- Espeonage
- Tchill

But seriously. Get those votes off me. I'm town.

[Beefster]

Montosh is the correct lynch today.

[Beefster]

Why should I be trying to sort them out? If you want to know, I'm guessing Montosh is the wolf due to wilky associatives.

[Beefster]

So you think Thor and I are a team?

I'll have to get back to you on that. I haven't really thought about mafia teams tbh.

My gut is telling me you're town though. This looks like genuine gamesolving.

Thor/Esp seems pretty likely, but I'd bet on Thor before Espeonage

[Beefster]

So maybe (most likely to least likely):
Thor/Esp
Thor/NM
Esp/Tchill
Esp/NM
Tchill/NM
Tchill/Thor

[Beefster]

It is somewhat arbitrary.

The more I think about it, the more Thor/Esp makes sense.

[Beefster]

@Beefster - without using your role PM as the reasoning, how does Thor/Esp make more sense than Beefster/Esp?
I'll also accept Tchill/Esp if you can't handle the above, I'm just making a point.

I'll take a look. I mean Beef/Esp makes sense from a distancing type of perspective based on our interactions. I believe we've both had votes on each other at some point and I'll admit I look pretty scummy due to my pathological laziness.
Esp has soft associatives on Thor due to not voting him until today, then switching over to me not long after. I don't think he'd jump off a mislynch to bus at this stage of the game. So in that regard, almost anything makes more sense than Beef/Esp.
Thor/Beef honestly makes more sense than either.

Not_Mafia has voted just about everyone at some point.

My conclusions:

• Unless Thor is pulling a gambit, he can't be a wolf because he would have gone for a skitter mislynch instead of killing him. I townread him for most of the game, which leaves me more confused.
  
• I could see Esp wolf due to RVS vote on wilky and reluctant vote on him yesterday, but I'd still bet more on Montosh being the wolf.
  
• Esp and N_M are probably different alignments based on Esp's interaction, so a Esp/NM mafia team makes no sense. I can't really see that being staged.
  
• I think Tchill is town for redeeming the slot. Korina's frustration could have been genuine. Immature and unsportsmanlike, but genuine.
  
• I'm town

These can't all be true, so one of them has to be false. Problem is, I'm not sure which it is.

The easiest domino to fall would be that Esp is actually the wolf. This would imply that the mafia pair is Montosh and Not_Mafia/Thor. I'd probably bet more on Thor.

VOTE: Espeonage

[Beefster]

Also, A50 tunneled me pretty hard on D2, so that would imply that I'm not mafia. I recognize that doesn't clear me from wolf, but I don't care.

[Beefster]

Bussing requires context. People don't usually go out of their way to bus.

[Beefster]

I'm pretty sure Montosh is scum one way or the other. Whether he flips wolf or mafia would help with identifying the other two scum. If he flips wolf, we go after Thor. If he flips mafia, we go after Esp (wolf) and then NM.

I guess I can say the same about Esp except I think he could be town.

[Beefster]

VOTE: Montosh

[Beefster]

@Beef
@N_M

How about each of you weigh in with your thoughts on Tchill as a theory wolf also? You're both too quiet and I'm bored.

I think it's a valid theory and the explanations are solid. Korina's meltdown and Tchill's replace in are what's throwing me off.

[Beefster]

VOTE: Tchill

I need to finish this game. I'm in too many right now.

[Beefster]

My bets are Tchill flips ww.

[Beefster]

ggwp.

I was way off.