Open 713: Jungle Republic [Game Over]

[LaserGuy]

VOTE: wilky

Trying to make nothing out of something.

[LaserGuy]

Why couldn't I be scum and also honestly consider you a valid policy lynch?

Can you explain why you think Beefster is worth a policy lynch? I've never played with him before, but I'm getting Town vibes from him at the moment.

[LaserGuy]

Ew, metareading. I don't like metareading tbh, because, I can manipulate my meta quite easily.
I'm just gonna point this out. Ok, going back to lurking.

This comment is very weird to me, I'm not sure how to place it. Why did you feel it was so important to point this out?

(Aside: If you can help it, would you mind not quoting a giant post just to put a one line question at the end? It makes the thread easier to read and it's easier to see what you're actually referring to in the post if you only quote the part that is relevant)

It seems actually quite scummy to me you'd do that.
VOTE: Thor

Do you think this is what Thor was actually doing?

Why couldn't I be scum and also honestly consider you a valid policy lynch?

Can you explain why you think Beefster is worth a policy lynch? I've never played with him before, but I'm getting Town vibes from him at the moment.

He becomes a blind unreadable sheep.
Go ahead and ISO a few of his recent games and get back to me if you love his play.

I'll have a look later if I think it is pertinent. I was more interested in your reasoning for wanting to policy lynch him since you were apparently serious about it.

[LaserGuy]

As for "being forced to choose": whenever two people go at it in a mafia game and accuse each other it naturally puts the other players in a situation where they have to decide whether it is SvT or TvS or TvT or SvS. I decided it was T (you) v S (paradox). Players can't really ignore a fight because a fight is an elephant in the room. It needs to be resolved in some way. Either the two sides reach some sort of conclusion and it stops or one of them gets lynched or attention turns away to somebody else and the fight is suspended to deal with the new issue.

What's interesting about this is that Thor was not framing this as "Paradox is wrong and therefore scum". That leap was made by you in 33, with skitter drawing the opposite implication in 46. I don't actually think that the rightness or wrongness of the initial argument is particularly alignment indicative for either player, nor do I think it is a particularly important argument in the grand scheme of things, so it's interesting to me that people who are not Paradox/Thor are the ones trying to raise the stakes here.

[LaserGuy]

What's interesting about this is that Thor was not framing this as "Paradox is wrong and therefore scum". That leap was made by you in 33, with skitter drawing the opposite implication in 46. I don't actually think that the rightness or wrongness of the initial argument is particularly alignment indicative for either player, nor do I think it is a particularly important argument in the grand scheme of things, so it's interesting to me that people who are not Paradox/Thor are the ones trying to raise the stakes here.

It seemed to be more "Paradox is wrong and therefore disingenuous". But given that town have no reason to be disingenuous as a rule, the implication is along the lines of "Paradox is wrong and therefore disingenuous".

On "raising the stakes", whatever that means. It's probably not an important argument overall... unless it is. We don't know, it's the first argument of the game. Why would people not engage with it? What is so interesting about that?

I'm not surprised that people are engaging in it. I am suspicious of people who see an argument and immediately infer that one of the participants must be scum. This feels opportunistic to me.

[LaserGuy]

@Laser - I sort of liked the core idea of yours behind 'maybe scum are egging it on' but the permutation of the inference is leaving em a bit colder.
That's a super common logical fallacy that town do all the time, no?

Unfortunately, yes, Town do this as well. I don't think all of the participants are necessarily scum, but I think it's more likely that we'll find scum in {BuJabar, Korina, skitter} than in {Thor, Paradox}. Unless, I suppose, both you and Paradox are scumbuddies and this is all theatre, which is certainly possible for D1, but I don't think that's what happening here.

I'm not surprised that people are engaging in it. I am suspicious of people who see an argument and immediately infer that one of the participants must be scum. This feels opportunistic to me.

And where did anyone declare someone as definitely scum in this argument? I just saw people saying certain behaviour seemed like it could be scummy.

I already pointed to 33 and 46 as examples of people trying to frame this as TvS.

@Thor: If it's a T v T, some scum might egg it on sure but I feel like scum are more likely to try and not get too involved with it Day 1,

given that a mislynch is generally pretty likely anyway first day.

In

this

setup? Mmm... This comment bothers me.

[LaserGuy]

VOTE: Montash

[LaserGuy]

Neither of those posts demonstrate someone framing it as Town vs Scum. I don't know where you feel you're getting this from. This feels like you're trying to stay above the argument while framing all those who do engage as suspicious.

I'm looking for scum. I do not think that there is anything of particular interest in the argument itself.

@Thor: If it's a T v T, some scum might egg it on sure but I feel like scum are more likely to try and not get too involved with it Day 1,

given that a mislynch is generally pretty likely anyway first day.

In

this

setup? Mmm... This comment bothers me.

Statistics bother you? Yes, In

this

setup. 12 people, 3 mafia, 2 werewolves, 7 town.

Your perspective is wrong. For Town, the odds of hitting scum D1 in this game are ridiculously good. In a typical setup, it's like 20%. In this game, it's nearly 50%. Your comment makes sense coming from the point of view of scum, but not of Town.

[LaserGuy]

Your perspective is wrong. For Town, the odds of hitting scum D1 in this game are ridiculously good. In a typical setup, it's like 20%. In this game, it's nearly 50%. Your comment makes sense coming from the point of view of scum, but not of Town.

Scum are not going to try and lynch their partners. With that in mind and noting that this setup is majority town means that a mislynch remains the most likely scenario Day 1. Yes, scum groups targeting each other raise the odds of a scum lynch, but nowhere near the levels you're suggesting. A cursory glance at the previous game played with this setup listed on the wiki reveal this to be the case.

All of these things are true in any setup. The fact that this is multiball increases the odds of us hitting scum compared to a single team, in fact, and if the odds were really that much worse than chance, then we'd be better off letting random.org do the lynch, because then the odds would be exactly chance. But that isn't really the point. The point is that your perspective on how the lynch is going to go is not that of Town. Your post hoc rationalization doesn't change the initial error.

[LaserGuy]

Quick thoughts...

I'm getting strong Town vibes from Beef, Thor, Espeonage. I see reasons why people might interpret Thor's play as aggressive scum, but I don't really get the sense that this is likely to be the case.

I don't really care for the wagons on wilky and skitter. There's been a few pings here and there from both of them, but nothing I see really stands out as a strong case for either. Feeling TvT on Thor/skitter at the moment.

Null on Fanta and NM. More content needed from both.

Korina is nullscum. Very little content, and her tone feels kind of strange to me.

Golden Paradox has been giving me some weird vibes. 80 is awful. I get the vibe that Paradox is deliberately focusing on unimportant issues rather than actually engaging the thread.

BuJaber looking like scum to me. I think Espeonage and Beef are making a good case here; I don't like the deliberate attempts to force skitter vs Thor, and earlier paradox vs Thor as a TvS. I don't have strong reads on skitter or paradox, but I am suspicious of this framing. I am struggling to see really good reasons why Town would be so intent on narrowing the lynch pool in this manner.

I think Montosh is scum as per 90

[LaserGuy]

All of these things are true in any setup. The fact that this is multiball increases the odds of us hitting scum compared to a single team, in fact, and if the odds were really that much worse than chance, then we'd be better off letting random.org do the lynch, because then the odds would be exactly chance. But that isn't really the point. The point is that your perspective on how the lynch is going to go is not that of Town. Your post hoc rationalization doesn't change the initial error.

Honestly, I think that people might sometimes forget that they're playing multiball, and just play like it's singleball.

Like you also sound like you forgot we were playing multiball here in the bolded below; you're ignoring the possibility that thor/paradox might be s v w.

Unfortunately, yes, Town do this as well. I don't think all of the participants are necessarily scum, but I think it's more likely that we'll find scum in {BuJabar, Korina, skitter} than in {Thor, Paradox}.

Unless, I suppose, both you and Paradox are scumbuddies and this is all theatre, which is certainly possible for D1,

but I don't think that's what happening here.

I think you're reading too much into that statement by montosh tbh.

No, I was specifically referring to Thor and Paradox being aligned scum here. But your defense of Montosh is noted.

Translation: I'm scum because I read the setup

Good job misrepresenting my argument. That's sure to earn you lots of townie credit.

My reading prowess is unmatched. Unmatched.

This whole sequence of posts is just awful.

[LaserGuy]

The 2/5 is explained in the posts I made earlier: (actually 2/6 I mentioned.. 1 from thor/skitter/paradox, 1 from laser, espeo, beef) but it could also be more - say 3 or 4 from those 6, but that's statistically a much lower chance.

I think you're making the same mistake as Montoge here... you aren't correctly accounting for the number of scum in the game and it's leading you to make some really weird conclusions. Let's suppose you're right and there's exactly one scum in {Thor/Skitter/Paradox} and one in {Laser, Espeo, Beef}. Who should we lynch? From the point of view of Town!you, we should lynch one of {Not Mafia, Dr Fanta, Korina, wilky and Montosh}. According to your reads, three of those five players are scum. You have a much better chance of hitting scum in that pool than you do in either of the pools that you're interested in.

[LaserGuy]

People need to post now. I refuse to be lynched just because half the players waited until the last day and there wasn't any time to change the wagon.

Korina playing 3 games is pretty small you need more I thought it would be a lot but it's very underwhelming. Site meta is slow for most games so it's not that hard to catch up. On average days obviously. When RL is kicking your butt or you would have no internet access there is VLA. And the prodding policy of the site is quite lenient.

Try 72/24 and 48/24 hour games, plus this game, which is 168/48.

This is the only site where I could fesibly get away with doing 3+ games at once.

You don't seem to have any trouble keeping up. Any time someone mentions you, you respond quickly. You just aren't actually engaging in discussion beyond that, and your answers are extremely evasive. Working on a giant reads post for several days is not nearly as useful as actually interacting with people and trying to find scum.

Liking this at the moment.
VOTE: Korina

[LaserGuy]

Because there's certain times I'm actually active on one thread. I try to reply quickly whenever someone mentions me.
(Sarcasm kinda intended) I'm also sorry that I have a real life, I go to school, I have a job, and that I can't really focus all my attention onto one thing for long periods of time. (Plus if my school didn't block this site, I would be able to post more often).

I understand you have other obligations and are playing other games. That's fine. The problem is that in basically every post you've made recently, you've just made excuses for not playing this one.

@Thor, I will comment on your post in a bit. I'd prefer to reread the whole discussion first, and, well, there's a lot of it.

[LaserGuy]

@Laser - what are your thoughts on viewtopic.php?p=9975923#p9975923 ?

Upon review, I'm still seeing this mostly as TvT. I get a couple of pings here and there, but nothing that I feel is strongly scum-indicative at this point.

She has not actually shown me encouraging people to pick a side in any way.

She is arguing that the manner that you were framing the argument implicitly encourages people to pick sides. She mentions this specifically in 46. I don't believe she ever suggested that you were explicitly calling for people to jump to one side or the other (which would, IMHO, be pretty scummy were you to do that). I also do not believe you did this, and in fact have been quite fastidious in focusing on your points and not trying to solicit opinions on the arguments.

She has not questioned anyone else for setting up any sort of disagreement.

She did call out BuJabar for saying that exactly one of the two of you is scum in 181, which is a similar sort of thing.

She agrees I wasn't unfair in my question.
She has now agreed that there was already inherently conflict (indeed, it was created by the person she is claiming is town in this exchange)
She agrees that her best examples of how I could have questioned the player *also* caused conflict.
So her basic claim is, I asked a question that was a little more standoffish than it should have had to have been.

So after you've argued this out, she basically agrees with your accounting of events, and she was probably scumreading your tone and aggression more than anything else. Unfortunately, this is not really alignment indicative as townies scumread aggression

all the time

. I have a bit of experience with this from some more aggressive games I've played on my homesite, and it is very annoying, but it is not usually indicative of scum, especially this early in the game.

And she's doubling down on it as a valid issue to call me scum over this.
(and has now expanded to me misrepping her)

This is the only part of your case that I really agree with as possibly scum indicative, but isn't strong enough for me to really feel an urge to put down a vote. It could be frustrated Town. On the whole, I think this is most likely TvT. I'd suggest you both back down from your tunnels for awhile and see what else is going on that you find interesting... you can always come back to this later if you feel the need.

[LaserGuy]

What exactly is your argument? That my post seemed like it was from the perspective of scum? Because as I recall the whole point of my little aside to Thor there was to think about what scum were likely to be doing.

Yes, I believe your post came from the perspective of scum. I'm not sure what aside you are referring to. My point on you is based on the point you made about mislynches being likely in this setup.

Oh now I really don't like this. You seem to be trying to associate me to an argument I didn't make, and one which is completely different from the one I made.

I also don't like how Bujaber backed off after you said this, as this is a bad argument because you

aren't correctly accounting for the number of scum in the game.

Those three person groups could easily be S vs W under Bujaber's argument rather than T vs S. It feels like he was using any excuse to get off a wagon he didn't feel was working.

BuJaber specifically said that he felt it likely that there was one scum in each pool, and therefore lynching from those pools makes sense. That's the argument I was responding to.

[LaserGuy]

laser:

Why couldn't I be scum and also honestly consider you a valid policy lynch?

Can you explain why you think Beefster is worth a policy lynch? I've never played with him before, but I'm getting Town vibes from him at the moment.

Do you care explaining yourself?

Beef's tone was (and still is) very townie.

@Thor: If it's a T v T, some scum might egg it on sure but I feel like scum are more likely to try and not get too involved with it Day 1,

given that a mislynch is generally pretty likely anyway first day.

In

this

setup? Mmm... This comment bothers me.

Why does it bother you?

Pretty sure I already talked about this. tl;dr is that mislynch is actually, compared to typical mafia games, much less likely, so it is very strange that somebody from Town would not recognize this. It makes more sense coming from scum, who might be mentally lumping the other scum team in with Town in their internal calculations.

[LaserGuy]

@skitter, @thor

I think you are both Town, but I am seriously contemplating pushing for a policy lynch on one of you at this point in time just so we won't have to put up with you bickering for the rest of the game. You are aren't getting anywhere and are making the thread more difficult to read and keep up with. Please move on.

[LaserGuy]

@skitter, @thor

I think you are both Town, but I am seriously contemplating pushing for a policy lynch on one of you at this point in time just so we won't have to put up with you bickering for the rest of the game. You are aren't getting anywhere and are making the thread more difficult to read and keep up with. Please move on.

We are getting somewhere.

Also, what else would you like to see addressed?

Other than skitter, who are your scumreads?

[LaserGuy]

Also, I hardclaim Citizen rn. I'm a fucking citizen once again, and literally out of half the rolelist being non-citizen roles, I get citizen again. I really don't care if I'm ML'd d1, happens all the time, and idgaf tbh.

Interesting. I need to think about this.

UNVOTE: Korina
for now

[LaserGuy]

It's real. At this point, I have played around 14 games. Excluding 4 of them, because one of them I replaced into confirmed scum slot, the other was a pure Jester game, the third one was late game, and VT wasn't a possibility that late in, and the last one because it was canned, I have rolled Citizen in over half of them. Probability would beg to differ at this point, that I would get a non-town role. I still haven't and that pisses me off to no end, because I want to finally play as fucking scum. 11H on ToS forums was the closest I've ever gotten to playing a legit scum game, and even if I played scum well that game, I highly doubt I would've won it. So, let's break down the rest of those games then: that leaves 10 games. 1 of them, I got BG. 1 of them, I got Arso (11H), 1 of them, I got vig, but because of someone else in thread, I got force-replaced. That leaves 7 games, this one included. I have played VT in 70% of all my fm games. You don't think I get sick and fucking tired of it, or at this point probability would be in my favor on a literal coin flip? I may be following the gambler's fallacy here, but I honestly think that probability would go my way at this point.

*Sigh*, I kind of believe this, at least enough not to want to lynch Korina right now. He's such lynchbait it's going to be a very low information flip regardless of his alignment.

VOTE: The Golden Paradox

@Paradox:

Can you explain why you were so bothered by Thor's initial policy vote, when in Mini 1981 you pushed for a policy lynch on Not_Mafia in your first post?

[LaserGuy]

Day 1 ends in 4 days, 9 hours, 33 minutes

Um, I didn't realize that deadline was so close.

K, here's where I'm at:

{Montosh}
{Laserguy}
{}
{beef, wilky}
{NM} ------ null
{Korina, paradox}
{dr fanta, A50-slot, esp}
{}
{Thor}

I very much want to lynch Thor, but if that's not happening, I could move to Dr Fanta or A50 or esp at deadline.

Can you explain your townread on Montosh?

[LaserGuy]

Wait, you're in this game??? What the fuck

I mean I know I've been a ghost but jesus your posts read like blatant active lurking, full of fluff and fencefitting galore.

@skitter, @thor

I think you are both Town, but I am seriously contemplating pushing for a policy lynch on one of you at this point in time just so we won't have to put up with you bickering for the rest of the game. You are aren't getting anywhere and are making the thread more difficult to read and keep up with. Please move on.

"Waaaah people are giving us information by disagreeing with eachother and giving actually detailed arguments against eachother. This makes the game harder to read for me because I'm a lazy fuck. Boohoo."

While I think this opinion is stupid, it's town stupid.

You're already convinced Thor is scum and skitter is Town. What more information do you expect to get than that?

Spoiler:

Day 1 ends in 4 days, 9 hours, 33 minutes

Um, I didn't realize that deadline was so close.

K, here's where I'm at:

{Montosh}
{Laserguy}
{}
{beef, wilky}
{NM} ------ null
{Korina, paradox}
{dr fanta, A50-slot, esp}
{}
{Thor}

I very much want to lynch Thor, but if that's not happening, I could move to Dr Fanta or A50 or esp at deadline.

Ohoho, what the fuck is this?
Active lurker as your only other townread besides Montosh, fucking wilky

above

null somehow?

I would not be surprised by a skitter-Laserguy-wilky scumteam just because of this shitty readslist even if I'm currently TRing skitter for skitter v thor. In fact, skitter v thor might actually be SvS.

Annnd now I'm caught up.

Interesting that you appear to have read skitter vs. Thor in great detail, but apparently missed all of skitter's other reads. Actually, I'm pretty sure you're actually getting all of this from page 11-13 and haven't read the rest of the thread at all.

Spoiler:

This little bit looks pretty genuine and also makes me think it's pretty clear that if Thor flips red, then BuJaber is in the clear.

Scratch this, still trying to get into the multiball mindset. Fml.

@Pepper
How would this change your read on BuJaber/Almost50?
Are you thinking you'd be left with no read or a townlean/read
Or could it perhaps be a MvW?

I don't exactly want to cause a head v head argument but I'm curious for the sake of the game what your thoughts are on this potential flip
- Fanta

I'm pretty null on them at this point because it could've been MvW or just SvT and tbh there's not really enough substance between Bujaber and A50 for me to really dig in my claws, you know?

Also I think maybe we should chat between ourselves on this kind of thing mostly because it doesn't give town very much information to see us interacting between ourselves because we share a slot so like Pretty sure I'd rather leave room for interaction between different slots, and to not complicate / fill this game with informationless posts.

- BEGONE FOUL MORTAL!!

This is such a strange interaction.

Are you going to scumhunt at all this game or continue filling it with giant shitposts? I'd be happy to PL you.

-Pepper

Apparently Pepper has been reading the thread a little bit at least.

[LaserGuy]

Spoiler:

So, my entire thing about that, is that I honestly have never seen town trying to set up arguments where they know the exact outcome. It seems like something mafia/wolf would do.

How would I know what the outcome would be?
You're, like Skitter, accussing me of being a mindreader/master manipulator with zero evidence to support said claim, and then acting like it's a valid call.

@Korina - I knew the outcome would be you missing the question, but let's go with this a second time.

@Korina - third time's the charm?

You said so yourself.

Also, I hardclaim Citizen rn. I'm a fucking citizen once again, and literally out of half the rolelist being non-citizen roles, I get citizen again. I really don't care if I'm ML'd d1, happens all the time, and idgaf tbh.

This doesn't look like real frustration. Geniune frustration looks towny. This seems more "I'm a VT. Screw this" in the most exaggerated way possible.

This little bit looks pretty genuine and also makes me think it's pretty clear that if Thor flips red, then BuJaber is in the clear.

Scratch this, still trying to get into the multiball mindset. Fml.

@Pepper
How would this change your read on BuJaber/Almost50?
Are you thinking you'd be left with no read or a townlean/read
Or could it perhaps be a MvW?

I don't exactly want to cause a head v head argument but I'm curious for the sake of the game what your thoughts are on this potential flip
- Fanta

Can you chat in your PTs about this and not clog up the thread thanks

Right, so i've just iso'd Laserguy and his iso does not read as active lurker at all so for now

VOTE: Dr Fanta

I agree. I'll sheep this.

VOTE: Dr Fanta

The sheeping here seems E X T R E M E L Y oppurtunistic. I'm FoSing Beefster for this.


VOTE: Almost50
This is the most fake and horrible slot out there.

My lynch pool is like this: A50 > Wilky > Beefster.
If A50 is town, Esp is almost def scum. If A50's scum, Espeonage is almost def town. (Yes, I know we're in multiball).

Do you ignore questions to you on purpose? I addressed you in 316. You're quoting from 300 and 325 here, and your name is in big bold letters in my post, so I have a hard time imagining you missed it.

[LaserGuy]

Mate, I would be hard SRing you now if I didn't see your play in that game first hand. You REALLY need to stop tunneling and start reading and evaluating stuff. Like, if you're scum here you're a likely NK (if you're Mafia), likely investigation target (if you're a WW), and if you're Town you're a detriment to Town regardless because you're likely to BOTH draw the NK AND the investigation, let alone the (mis)lynch if you're still alive in 2 days.

How does this make sense? If he is Mafia, why would Werewolf kill him if his slot looks scummy?

[LaserGuy]

I think any of Paradox/Fanta/Almost50 are good lynches for today.

[LaserGuy]

No. I'm not sure where you're getting this from.

[LaserGuy]

VOTE: Dr Fanta

Two days left. We need to start consolidating our votes.

[LaserGuy]

I have a Town lean on wilky.

[LaserGuy]

Am I looking into this too much or is the bolded part a slip? Seems to me like Almost already knows for sure that skitter doesn't have the same alignment as him.

I don't know about you, but I assume someone I'm SCUMREADING isn't the same alignment of me. If I thought they were I wouldn't be STing them, would I??

I think you missed my question in 443.

[LaserGuy]

How does this make sense? If he is Mafia, why would Werewolf kill him if his slot looks scummy?

OK. Why wouldn't they? WWs want to get rid of the

informed

other faction too. The more the Mafia lives and the townies die the more influential the Mafia "bloc" votes become. The more the Mafia votes become influential the harder it is for Wolves to push their agenda, and the harder it becomes to actually lynch Mafia.

It's a matter of "balancing" the powers for the WWs. Their only danger from Town is the Seer. Once that is gone no other townie really matters. Mafia know each other and will protect each other from the lynch and -probably- hunt for the Wolves too. Got it?

I think the only way your logic here and in 409 makes any sense at all is if you believe that WW can tell the difference between Mafia/Town or Mafia can tell the difference between WW/Town. I suspect that this is probably not true at this stage of the game. But I don't know that I believe you would be making this assumption if you were scum.

[LaserGuy]

Just as a heads up. I will not be around at 4am for deadline. So I'd like things settled before then especially if A50 is not the choice for the day.

Also, show of hands on people down to lynch NM as a policy compromise?

I think if we end up settling on a 3rd or 4th choice compromise lynch, 95% chance it's going to be on Town. I think we're much better off committing to pushing through a wagon on someone that is likely to be scum. It isn't going to get any easier to build wagons as the game goes on.

@Korina, Montosh, Thor, Almost50

: Neither Thor nor skitter is going to happen today. I would strongly urge you to join one of the other wagons. We will never get a lynch if the vote is split five ways.

I don't think wilky is going to happen either, but I don't expect NM or Fanta to listen to me

[LaserGuy]

I am very pointedly not telling you to do anything.

[LaserGuy]

Sorry I'm late to the party. My posting on weekends is usually very light, and this weekend was just crazy for me so mafia kind of fell by the wayside. Let's see what's going on.

(7 LYNCHED)

Dr Fanta

- voted by: wilky, Beefster, LaserGuy, Thor665, Almost50,

TheGoldenParadox

, Not_Mafia.
(4) Thor665 - voted by: Montosh, Korina,

Dr Fanta

, skitter30.
(1) Almost50 - voted by: Espeonage.

My gut is probably 2 mafia + 1 wolf on the wagon.

Paradox is a weird one there's not really anyone it implicates or points in a direction too.

This is wolf

I agree with NM here. I don't like this post by wilky.

LaserGuy and Beefster's votes were less reasonable. LaserGuy mostly voted to pressure people into consolidating votes onto wagons near deadlines, which rarely ends well for town. Beefster was just blatantly sheeping. I'd put money on scum there.

VOTE: Dr Fanta

Two days left. We need to start consolidating our votes.

Why'd you pick Dr Fanta here to consolidate votes on?

There were five wagons at the time: You, Thor, wilky, Dr. Fanta, and A50. I had Town on you and Thor, so I wasn't going to vote there. I was suspicious of everyone on the wilky wagon and didn't want to sheep them. It was a toss-up for me between A50 and Dr. Fanta, and my scumread on Fanta was stronger.

NM, are you a lyncher with Wilky as your target? Why are you death-tunneling him?

So, are we actually going to see some real content out of you today? Or are you just going to keep active lurking and prod-dodging like you did for all of D1?

Good of place to start as any.
VOTE: Korina

[LaserGuy]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

You're going to need to explain this. Why are you voting NM? Why were you just sheeping him on wilky in your previous post?

[LaserGuy]

Fuck these wagons

Are you getting annoyed that the entirety of my wagon composition is more scum than can be on one team therefore making more likely to be town? I asked you earlier why you're scumreading me this time around, as you've never been wrong before and I'm honestly intrigued. Is it because I'm hydra'ing?

-Pepper

@Not_mafia: Can you answer Fanta's question here?

[LaserGuy]

But Fanta actually went after wilky for no reason, other than the fact that he was high up on skitter's readlist and they didn't like the readlist, which seems totally bonkers to me. Wilky had some reason to vote for them.

This is a weird interpretation. Wilky didn't seem too bothered by Fanta voting for him. He didn't like Fanta's read on skitter flip-flopping based on her reads list, and didn't like Fanta accusing me of active lurking. See 331 and 332.

[LaserGuy]

UNVOTE: TChill13

[LaserGuy]

Umm... why those two specific players, out of curiosity?

[LaserGuy]

Why though? Beyond what's already been said, the paradox kill doesn't really tell us much. Why would WW!wilky kill paradox when it would clearly cast suspicion on him?

I don't know that killing Paradox puts suspicion on wilky directly. Although Paradox did vote park wilky for awhile, he was lurking for most of D1 and never pushed anything, so I don't know that I believe WW!wilky would feel threatened by him. What I find suspicious about this post is more that I feel wilky is immediately trying to dismiss possible connections with other players.

wilky or TChill today

wilky or TChill today

Agreed. (and it worries me much to find myself agreeing with someone all that much, tbh).

I'm not dictating anything to you, it's a question.
I brought up number of posts because you claimed you looked at the post count to pick - why look at the post count to pick if number of posts was meaningless?
Also, you didn't pick people to randomly ask - you're claiming you randomly picked people to sheep reads on/agree with.

These posts seem like overreactions to something that is funny, but probably NAI (if anything this kind of dumbtell is probably Town). Almost50 at least saw the humor in it. Tchill's early posting is already better than anything Korina had produced, actually.

[LaserGuy]

There were five wagons at the time: You, Thor, wilky, Dr. Fanta, and A50. I had Town on you and Thor, so I wasn't going to vote there. I was suspicious of everyone on the wilky wagon and didn't want to sheep them. It was a toss-up for me between A50 and Dr. Fanta, and my scumread on Fanta was stronger.

OK fair enough. What's your present read on me/thor/A50?

You're a strong Townread.

When I started writing this, I was going to say that I have Thor as a Town lean and A50 as a scum lean, but in trying to wrap my head about the fact that we only have five townies in a ten person game, I think they're actually both PoE in my scum pile right now. Both are due for a reread at some point when I have access to enough scotch to get me through all of those walls.

[LaserGuy]

There were five wagons at the time: You, Thor, wilky, Dr. Fanta, and A50. I had Town on you and Thor, so I wasn't going to vote there. I was suspicious of everyone on the wilky wagon and didn't want to sheep them. It was a toss-up for me between A50 and Dr. Fanta, and my scumread on Fanta was stronger.

OK fair enough. What's your present read on me/thor/A50?

You're a strong Townread.

When I started writing this, I was going to say that I have Thor as a Town lean and A50 as a scum lean, but in trying to wrap my head about the fact that we only have five townies in a ten person game, I think they're actually both PoE in my scum pile right now. Both are due for a reread at some point when I have access to enough scotch to get me through all of those walls.

Actually, I'm going to amend this. I'm getting a lot of buddy vibes between the two of them today that I find very suspicious. I don't think that it's possible all three of you can be Town at once.

VOTE: Almost50

[LaserGuy]

Laser seems to be playing a game that makes sense so far so i was alarmed he didn't give anymore attention to NM over Fanta. He actually seems to defend NM at the end of day 1/ start of day 2. So that cought my eye.

I have played with NM once before (him and the Viomi half of Fanta are the only people I've played with here, actually), and his play looks identical to that game, where he was Town. I was told in that game by the people who had played with him before that this was standard play for him and almost everything he does is NAI, but that he'd sort himself out later. Maybe there's some subtle differences in his Town/scum game, but I don't see it, so his slot was sitting in my null pile for just about all of D1. There's one post that I think is more likely to come from Town!NM (this one), and one or two that could be scum indicative (here and his lack of response to this), but beyond that I had nothing on him. The only reason that I would have been voting him D1 would have been a policy lynch, and I generally don't like policy lynching people for their playstyle.

[LaserGuy]

Conclusion: Beefster is SCUM. His partner(s) is/are in Montosh/skitter30/LaserGuy

Why are you excluding NM and Thor from your partner read? Beef didn't vote for them either.

[LaserGuy]

Oh, nvm, I see where you're getting this now.

[LaserGuy]

Okay, here's all of Beef's votes from D1 of a game where he was Town. How do you feel what you're seeing is different from his Town play?

Spoiler: Beef

VOTE: HeWhoSwims
because reasons.

VOTE: thor

Something smells fishy about this interaction and I don't think it's PenguinPower.

Bella votes are pro town atm

Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.

VOTE: Flubber

Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.

But why? We have several fairly good leads right now.

The flubber wagon felt stale at the time, but it seems to be picking up momentum. She's been pinging my scumdar. She feels very methodical/mechanical in her posts.

VOTE: Flubber

I am still suspicious of COA.

@COA/follow-up: I don't have any examples of you sheeping reads because you don't have any actual reads. It's mostly stuff like "I see what you're saying about player X" and "I don't like X from Y" (which is usually after other players have said basically the same thing), but none of this is concrete opinion of "I think X is scum/town"

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Actually, you know what?

VOTE: mozamis

COA can wait.

Oh. I should probably
VOTE: RadiantCowbells
with that kind of accusation.

I

could

do that... Hmm... If only I had some motivation...

VOTE: Klick

How's that for motivation.

Nah. Just kidding.

VOTE: COA

I think that's where my vote was.

Tbh I think Scum!Mozamis is the piece that everyone's missing

FWIW, I saw that like 5 pages ago. At least.

VOTE: mozamis

I could see moneyscum

Ack. I hit submit instead of preview....
I'm giving RC the benefit of doubt for now, and hoping for the best. Transcend's cc did not strike me as scummy, especially since he retracted it fairly quickly. I saw it as more of a test of RC's claim.

and kilck, what is it with you defending the bella/rc slot so hard?

I thought it was Flubber that he was defending so hard.

you ever gonna play this game?

Not playing the way you play or the way you think I should play does not mean that I am not playing.

What would be the motivation for fake claiming? It just means that you're outed as scum sooner rather than later.

Missed this the first time around. Giving RC the BOTD and then later asking (me I think) the motivation for fake claiming. Seems inconsistent.

I can kinda see what people have been saying about texcat.

I guess I can settle.

VOTE: texcat

Theory Question: I've heard from a few people on the site that it is usually a bad idea to No Lynch. Why is that? It seems to me that if everyone is town or you can't all agree on a lynch, it's best to No Lynch, especially on an early day.

[LaserGuy]

TChill is probably Town. Micro 785 has just finished and Korina's story seems to check out (her posting style and activity level are also completely different in that game).

[LaserGuy]

...and that's a hammer.

[LaserGuy]

Well done Mafia! Tricky setup but you guys managed to do a really good job of keeping everyone off balance.

Also:

Putting down my predictions before I forget about this game:
Town: skitter, Beef, Not_Mafia, TChill
Mafia: A50, Thor, Esp
Wolf: wilky, Montosh

Good thing you guys killed me when you did. I had all of you at the end of N2, though I got Thor/Montosh alignments wrong