Open 631 - Diffusion of Power (Over)

Ranger · Post Post #1200 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:07 pm

Well honestly, I'm not sure where to begin.

I guess we can start with today and work from there. Namely,

Andrius wrote:Kop being here is unexpected. I have class this evening, but will re-read tonight/tomorrow and have words sometime tomorrow. Will give due diligence as I screwed up the last LyLo I was in by not re-evaluating the "confirmed" town. Darn Mafia Doctors not having guns.

This is attempting to throw shade onto your slot, to see if there's any possible wiggle room for potentially mislynching you.

There's also the RadiantCowbells kill. For a start: it's tactically stupid for me to make for two reasons. First, numbers-wise. I could claim to have protected RadiantCowbells and killed you, or if I thought that was too risky, I could simply no-kill and claim to have protected you, forcing a mylo where there are three possible lynches (a 66/33 odds scum favor) rather than two (50/50). Second,

RadiantCowbells wrote:ftr: if this flips town and I die: I want ranger lynched based on my 0 thread reading.

After he said this, I wouldn't nightkill him. He would have read the thread and seen I was town, and with his updated opinion, probably turned the tables onto Andrius. (It'd have been Space Invaders all over again: him trying to convince me he's not scum, and eventually succeeding.)

On the other hand, Andrius seeing this can just kill RadiantCowbells, and if you yourself don't point it out, then he can do it for you.

Ranger · Post Post #1201 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:15 pm

Going back to yesterday, there was also my attitude I suppose.

I was very clear. I thought lynching Autti would end the game. I'll leave reading them to you, since you're the one making the judgment, but in all of them, the sincerity in my belief the game was over should show.

I also said that if I was wrong, I would be mislynched and you could blame the loss on me. That's not something I say lightly. (I do mean it still, for what it's worth. Obviously, the hope would be you get it right, but if you vote me, it's still 100% my fault, not yours.)

For Andrius, you get more neutral language: 1171, especially 1170

Yep that's the gem. Anything else need be said? I'm prepared to vote Autti.

And then you get 1166, specifically, this:

namely if we're just going to steam through Autti.

Plus, there was his stance:

Andrius wrote:So Kop and RC are confirmed town from where I am.

RC was not confirmed town. He was assumed town, like Andrius was assumed town, but he was not confirmed town. Yet if Andrius truly thought RC was confirmed town, then that would mean he had reason to nightkill RC.

Ranger · Post Post #1202 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:21 pm

^By neutral language, what I mean is: Andrius's stance was very careful. He said we were going to plow through Autti. He did not attribute any further meaning to this.

The contrast is that I did; I was unambiguously saying the game would end with an Autti lynch. I was willing to take a hard stance, one that was ultimately wrong, even though being wrong is something that makes me look a lot worse; he was not taking a hard stance, so he wasn't clearly wrong, so he doesn't look a lot worse from the flip because he never committed to it the same way I did.

Ranger · Post Post #1203 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:22 pm

This is probably not a point I should be making, but I'd like to add:
Autti probably needed to be replaced, yet as town, was not;
Rhaegar needed to be replaced, and was replaced.

The disparity between the two may have been thanks to alignment differences, that being, Rhaegar was the last scum whereas Autti was just one more town.

Ranger · Post Post #1204 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:35 pm

On previous days' notes:

Rhaegar wrote:No, we Lynch duppin first. And then we think carefully about our next step if he doesn't flip scum.

This in hindsight was setup for duppin's town-flip.

Playing defensive, it would be incredibly bold scum play to make claims like the ones I was making in 1102, 1101, and the setup on prior posts.

Ranger · Post Post #1205 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:38 pm

1079 also in hindsight feels like it is writing in new motivation to past actions, in this case, saving SnarkySnowman for one day, and claiming the reason was for the claim.

It's also a convenient claim to make. Claiming N4 doctor would be a risk because of Almost50 being an N4 doctor; claiming N5 doctor not only runs the risk of a counter-claim (because that's my role), but also the risk of running into complications where he would be forced to keep someone alive.

Ranger · Post Post #1206 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:41 pm

1073 was also a back-track.

All-in-all, it also feels like Rhaegar had picked up on what I was expecting scum to do (that is, I was expecting scum to claim cop), and had also picked up on the assumption I had made (that is, I was expecting a 4:6 setup when we now know 100% it's a 5:5), running with it to make the claim I was

expecting

to hear.

Ranger · Post Post #1207 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:43 pm

1068 was an additional attempt to get extra information before he would need to claim.

By chance, I was not logged in at the time, and he was pressured into claiming first, but he wanted me to claim before him. (In contrast, thanks to my reading style when catching up, I did not know he had claimed when I claimed; I learned that only after the claim.)

Ranger · Post Post #1208 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:50 pm

Rhaegar wrote:Bussing shotty would be a fairly logical decision. It would have been much harder to defend him given the likelyhood he would have been investigated or lynched.

And you treated snarky with kid gloves up until the claim. It was pretty obvious that he almost certainly would be the day two Lynch, so scum wouldn't be losing much by bussing him either.

Guess who was on both lynches? This sounds an awful lot like Rhaegar explaining why he was on both scum.

Speaking of which: I would not have killed Lowell. At that point, you (Kop) and Almost50 were both 100% absolutely confirmed town. My modus operandi as scum has been killing confirmed town players first, and Lowell was not confirmed town.

Ranger · Post Post #1209 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:01 pm

There's also my read progression on day three: when I came into the game, shotty had already been lynched. (Well, by the time I had posted, anyway.)

As scum, what I could have done is silently lurked it out, reading the thread and waiting for the mod to lock it, obtaining the necessary information to know who was what. This would have garnered no suspicion. Instead, I read the entire thread and gave my reads. My read on shotty also evolved: I started out with him middle of the road, but by 972, actually townread him. (Speaking of posting around there: 976 assumed duppin was scum because I assumed Rhaegar wasn't. The analysis still holds, except now we know duppin is town.) By 986, he was back to maybe scum, and by 992 he was a stronger scumread. In essence: my read on him clearly evolved as the thread continued.

And speaking of my reads: Rhaegar was my strongest townread. I have also, until today, been pushing the theory of a 4:6 cop:doc setup. I already said as scum that I would have either killed you (Kop) or no-killed. But were I to kill an unconfirmed player, it would have been the Rhaegar slot (Andrius), not the pisskop slot (RadiantCowbells), because killing the Rhaegar slot would "back" my theory up, and he was my strongest townread making it a little awkward to push.

This lasted even into yesterday when it was RC; 1189 contained an implication. RC asked me what I thought about him. What I thought was, "Because Autti is scum, he is town." But prior to that, I had asked whether he wanted my actual thoughts (which that post was), or hypothetical thoughts...implying there was a difference. That difference is because if you had asked me yesterday to choose between {RadiantCowbells, Andrius} for a scum, I'd have selected RadiantCowbells as the scum thanks to that strong Rhaegar townread off of both play and role.

Ranger · Post Post #1210 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:07 pm

SnarkySnowman wrote:@Rhaegar 132 does this seem not genuine to you?

In hindsight, this is a pretty scum-scum interaction.

SnarkySnowman wrote:Town {Rhaegar, KainTepes, duppin}

For the record.

I pointed out how SnarkySnowman likely had a scumbuddy up here.

I was sure it was duppin at the time.

It doesn't exactly do me any good

now

, considering KainTepes is my slot, but at least I can say I was right to make that call?

Ranger · Post Post #1211 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:15 pm

273 looks like scum interacting with their scumbuddy.

794, 802, and 804 as well.

I need to look at Rhaegar's iso, since looking at shotty's reminds me how heavily Rhaegar defended shotty, but thought I'd bring these up first. 914 in particular reads as shotty addressing his scumbuddy and asking if there's anything he can do to get them off.

Ranger · Post Post #1212 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:22 pm

KainTepes, my slot, for what it's worth, was one of the first early pushers of shotty being scum. As early as 52 in fact. It's a bit difficult to get a read on his slot without a cop shot given his, ah...

unique

...posting style, but 384 showed his more town self, 386 and 394 continuing it. He didn't just leave it there without a vote, either; he followed through in 412. He continued the reaction test, which was a fairly town thing to try and I've seen it from him as town before but not from him as scum. 492 is an offer that he would never make as scum: he actually offered to be the D1 lynch, without reason. (This, by the way, is probably thanks to his stance on being an N5 doctor: he's a doctor, not a cop, not an investigative, so the role is "boring". It is also late game. So, his death would not be an issue.)

Ranger · Post Post #1213 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:51 pm

109 from Rhaegar may have been jumping on the growing interest for SnarkySnowman, but it also defended fairly heavily shotty. 113 continues it. In 115, the first signs of an inconsistency appear from Rhaegar: he says he likes Lowell's post, but disagrees with the shotty read. That by itself isn't bad, but it grows: in 122, in spite of the hard-shotty defense he has been making the whole time, he lists shotty as null. This is where the real problem is. Why was he putting so much time and effort into defending a null read? 135 continues this shotty defense.

Rhaegar wrote:I'm basing them on shotty being an easy lynch, and therefor a target for scum. I have not doubt that if shotty did happen to be scum (25 percent chance) that a partner or two would bus the hell out of him. Shotty is a bad player. Lazy townies and devious scum are the people going after him. I'm not trying to say I have a read on him either way, I'm just saying that his wagon is one where scum would likely congregate regardless of his alignment.

This reads like him already knowing SnarkySnowman had a minor shotty bus. The usage of the term "bad player" also sets shotty up to be a less-appealing lynch.

In 266, he again defends shotty while trying to keep shotty from being a townread. 269 is further revising the story. 270 continues to try and distance from the defense, while still maintaining it. 280 reads as him going, "I'm bussing SnarkySnowman, because he decided to make an awful bus on shotty". 290 reads as a scum-scum interaction. 294 is a

huge

contradiction from Rhaegar: he says that he believes in reading players off of their playstyle, and yet, he insists this whole time not to wagon shotty, not to lynch him, in spite of a NULL read there.

390 reads as coaching SnarkySnowman. Then we get another huge contradiction. 449 is a fine stance, right? No claim SnarkySnowman can make will justify not lynching him. Except...in 459, he back-tracks on this and says that the one thing SnarkySnowman happened to conveniently claim was the one thing he was willing to let slide. 478 is a post that should imply a SnarkySnowman vote, yet none materialized. 482 is in hindsight a blatant fence-sit on the issue, again while unvoting, buying SnarkySnowman further time.

551 is saying duppin's stances were bad. What was duppin pushing? {Almost50, shotty}. Now note what Rhaegar's very next post, 556, is doing: voting Almost50. This not only shows a contradiction, but yet again once more shows Rhaegar defending shotty indirectly. Note that, on day two, Rhaegar did not immediately take pisskop's side, like basically everyone else. He waited, with posts like 726 (note he also waited on the end of D1 before hammering).

In the next day, 763 comes only after shotty has been wagoned. At this stage, it was clear no matter what, shotty was getting lynched. 790 in particular is Rhaegar testing the waters: he doesn't want to lynch his scumbuddy, but he's willing to blend into the town who are. 799 is coaching. 803 is even more coaching. 805 as well: encouraging him to claim and do those things. 857 displays a willingness to join both wagons, on shotty OR Lowell, showing that if Lowell had gained more support, Rhaegar would have switched.

There's various more over that day, but I think the point's been made.

Ranger · Post Post #1214 (ISO) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:52 pm

I'm sorry I can't make the decision any easier on you, Kop. This is the best I've got. :/

Andrius · Post Post #1215 (ISO) » Thu Apr 28, 2016 11:34 am

RC's death confirms Kop. The loose end has been tied.

Vote: Ranger

I don't really want to sit here and play the word nitpick game with you but since that's what you seem to care about, I'll play ball.

Spoiler: Unimportant Drivel

Basically, you came into the day guns blazing because you knew exactly what needed to be done. By killing the person who suspected you and confirming Kop you had one play and one play only. That's why, for you, this whole thing is a formality and you have one plan and one plan only to win. RC wanted you dead if you lived. You put your neck on the line for this and aren't willing to keep your word.

((I could also say that you being a N5 doc is too convenient, but that's admittedly a stretch and is more gut than anything else. Simply too convenient.))

Be back with a new post to ensure this makes it.

Andrius · Post Post #1216 (ISO) » Thu Apr 28, 2016 11:46 am

Pt. II: The Electric Boogaloo

Spoiler:

In post 1202, Ranger wrote:^By neutral language, what I mean is: Andrius's stance was very careful. He said we were going to plow through Autti. He did not attribute any further meaning to this.

The contrast is that I did; I was unambiguously saying the game would end with an Autti lynch. I was willing to take a hard stance, one that was ultimately wrong, even though being wrong is something that makes me look a lot worse; he was not taking a hard stance, so he wasn't clearly wrong, so he doesn't look a lot worse from the flip because he never committed to it the same way I did.

You know you look bad for staking everything on Autti's lynch (which you had to do) and are now reaching for straws by nitpicking my words because I have to be the play for you. There's no other way out of this for you.

In post 1203, Ranger wrote:This is probably not a point I should be making, but I'd like to add:
Autti probably needed to be replaced, yet as town, was not;
Rhaegar needed to be replaced, and was replaced.

The disparity between the two may have been thanks to alignment differences, that being, Rhaegar was the last scum whereas Autti was just one more town.

This further demonstrates your stretching literally anything to use it to slander my slot.
This practice is expressly forbidden.

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Public Service Announcement
- This is a reminder from your friendly list moderators that slots from the same game must be replaced in the order in which they were replaced, whether by request or forced replacement. Furthermore, players do not get a choice in who they replace if there is more than one option, and they absolutely may never be told the alignment or other role information of a player before replacing into the game. As with most game-related rules, this may be overriden by a specific Theme game rule specified prior to the start of the game, but this may not be done retroactively. Exceptions do not apply to Normal or Open games.

This being an Open game, the exception does not apply here.
Thus our moderator must fill the first open slot, not based on which slot's alignment/role's need is more pressing. Also, Autti was never formally up for replacement IIRC.

I am not taking time out of my day to play "What Was Rhaegar Thinking?" since I am, in fact, not Rhaegar.

In post 1208, Ranger wrote:
Rhaegar wrote:Bussing shotty would be a fairly logical decision. It would have been much harder to defend him given the likelyhood he would have been investigated or lynched.

And you treated snarky with kid gloves up until the claim. It was pretty obvious that he almost certainly would be the day two Lynch, so scum wouldn't be losing much by bussing him either.
Guess who was on both lynches? This sounds an awful lot like Rhaegar explaining why he was on both scum.

Speaking of which: I would not have killed Lowell. At that point, you (Kop) and Almost50 were both 100% absolutely confirmed town. My modus operandi as scum has been killing confirmed town players first, and Lowell was not confirmed town.

Taking this though because this is especially bad.

First off, you're stretching again. You're twisting things again. (Suddenly its scummy to lynch scum?)

Secondly, you're going off into speculation-land again. We don't know what you would or would not have done so sitting here discussing what ifs won't get us anywhere.

Andrius · Post Post #1217 (ISO) » Thu Apr 28, 2016 11:47 am

Kop, is there anything you would like to see from me in particular?

Andrius · Post Post #1218 (ISO) » Thu Apr 28, 2016 11:55 am

The condensed version is basically this.

1) RC was killed to eliminate a threat to Ranger, since RC explicitly stated before lynch that Ranger should be next if there was a next lynch
2) Ranger made some big 'oh you can lynch me tomorrow if we're wrong' thing to look town and now has to eat those words. Consequently, she's not lying down.
3) Ranger is grasping at straws, including nitpicking and the whole illegal replacement deal in order to attempt to slime her target.

In case Varsoon happens to be watching this little corner of the world:

Vote: Ranger

Gonna go make a VCA for old times' sake and see how that shakes down.

Andrius · Post Post #1219 (ISO) » Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:12 pm

Spoiler: VCA

Worthwhile to note that you will find both Kop and my slot on both of the scum lynches, which are denoted by QUOTE tags for ease of access.
Ranger's slot is missing from both.
Greated, Ranger's predecessor was soon to replace out when SS was lynched, but its still there.

Which makes sense, right?
Because neither of them, despite being in a game with cops, was lynched with a cop guilty. That would make VCA useless.
They were lynched for their play, and their buddies, unwilling to let them go, didn't send them on their way.
Granted, D1 SS was under some heat and had both of his buddies voting him but that diverted later.
Point being when both of the scumbags were lynched, they were all-town wagons.

Andrius · Post Post #1220 (ISO) » Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:12 pm

In post 1218, Andrius wrote:The condensed version is basically this. 1) RC was killed to eliminate a threat to Ranger, since RC explicitly stated before lynch that Ranger should be next if there was a next lynch2) Ranger made some big 'oh you can lynch me tomorrow if we're wrong' thing to look town and now has to eat those words. Consequently, she's not lying down. 3) Ranger is grasping at straws, including nitpicking and the whole illegal replacement deal in order to attempt to slime her target.

4) VCA shows that Ranger's slot avoided both of the scum lynches.

Andrius · Post Post #1221 (ISO) » Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:15 pm

I'm done for now.
Going to go do other things for awhile like eat food.
Likely will not be returning to internet-lands later tonight, but might be able to check in via mobile for short posts.

Ranger · Post Post #1222 (ISO) » Thu Apr 28, 2016 1:42 pm

Andrius wrote:What this tells me about you is that you're going to grasp for straws here.

Yes, I am.

I was expecting the game to end with Autti's lynch.

I was expecting last night would either end with no death or your death.

I was expecting RadiantCowbells being scum and winning

another

scum game.

I was not expecting him to be the nightkill; I was not expecting you to be scum. So, by definition. Everything I say in regards to you being scum is going to be grasping at straws. I know you're scum now because Kop is confirmed town. But that's literally the only reason I know you're scum.

However, your response is dodging my point. And I can show it in your response, too.

Nothing's been decided. You could swing, I could swing.

This is true. Yet, you were also casting shade on Kop.

That

was my point. You were trying to cast doubt on a player who is literally confirmed town. You're displaying the very behavior that you're trying to write onto me: you knew what you were going to do. Ironically enough, I myself set it up for you. I literally said I was going to get lynched today, so you could earn cheap attempts at town credit by not instant-voting me, and by casting suspicion on Kop, open up the chance we'd go after one another.

RC clearly indicated he suspected you most, and wanted you dead should the game have gone on.

And that's where you're wrong.
Andrius has displayed he doesn't understand Radiant right here and now.
But Kop?
I ask you: how much experience do you have with RadiantCowbells? Because if you have even close to the amount of experience I have with RC...then you know what he'd do.
I know that he'd reevaluate because this is not the first lylo I've had with RadiantCowbells before.

Space Invaders shows what he does in lylo.
He analyzes.
Reanalyzes.
Doubts himself.
Reassures himself.
Pushes.
Changes his mind.
Gets swayed back.
All over the course of days where the entire time, he is trying to figure things out.

The absolute

last

thing RadiantCowbells would do is vote for me in lylo.
Andrius didn't know this.
But RC would, I do, and if you've played with him enough, you should too.

You said you'd eat the lynch today, and you're not willing to do it.

Well eating the lynch in

lylo

would be against my wincon, so, yes, I'm not going to self-vote in lylo. What that mostly means is that I'm willing to take the blame for a mislynch on me. After Autti flipped town, I was expecting to be mislynched. I still am expecting it. I'm expecting to lose. I'm also expecting blame to be placed on Kop for being wrong, but that's where the statement comes in. I've already said I take full responsibility for it.

This practice is expressly forbidden.

You're bringing up a site rule but not one relevant to my point.
My point wasn't "Andrius's slot and Autti's slot both needed replacement at the same time, Andrius's got replaced whereas Autti's did not".
My point was that your slot needed replacement, and got one.
Autti's slot, later also needed replacement, yet never got one. As you yourself said,

Autti was never formally up for replacement IIRC.

This is the entire point. Autti was never formally up for replacement but was town. Your slot...was.

Suddenly its scummy to lynch scum?

To lynch scum in the manner which Rhaegar did?

Yes.

Bussing SnarkySnowman, but when SnarkySnowman gave an opening, letting him live. When SnarkySnowman was outed as scum, waiting for consensus to form before lynching him. Not instantly going after shotty. Waiting for consensus to form. Only when it was clear shotty was being lynched, placing a vote there. Rhaegar stalled the lynches on both scum for as long as humanly possible, and then when they proved inevitable, hopped on for cheap town credit.

Worthwhile to note that you will find both Kop and my slot on both of the scum lynches, which are denoted by QUOTE tags for ease of access.
Ranger's slot is missing from both.

Because KainTepes never made a post D2. Or D3. That's because KainTepes was already siteflaked, ergo, was not in the game. This is another point in my

favor

. I could not have contributed to a scum lynch, because both scum were lynched when my slot was out of the game. (By the time I came in, shotty was already hammered.)

In other words: my slot not being on either lynch is a technically true fact. It is also a fact which cannot, absolutely 100% CANNOT, be alignment indicative, because the slot wasn't in the game at all.

Kop · Post Post #1223 (ISO) » Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:01 pm

I haven't forgotten about you's. I've read what you both have had to say. I am going to reread it all, and look for things myself.

Ranger · Post Post #1224 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 7:53 pm

Hi all, sorry I need to do this, but: I'm going to a special even early tomorrow.

I spent today running errands preparing for that event tomorrow. I didn't declare V/LA because I did not anticipate it taking all day.

...It did.

So, my apologies, but I need to do a one-time prod-dodge for today only. I'll be back tomorrow night.

Not that this specific game is waiting on me; we're mostly waiting on Kop.