Open 639: C9++ (Game Over!)

[Persivul]

Lilith is the actuary, let's wait for her to explain the odds.

[Persivul]

I think it was awesome townplay after the day 1 mishap.

Damn right.

[Persivul]

Having an SK killing town, and taking out two docs and a cop by start of D2, this really could have been a cake walk for scum. I saw in the dead thread Ranger said she just wasn't into it, so that is what it is, but otherwise it's a pretty easy scum win.

[lane0168]

Maybe you're right but why would you go up the odds of there being one more d rather than the odds of there being 3d's in the first place?

[davesaz]

Pt ok. I still dont know what scumslip. No idea what ranger thought would happen. Time was an issue but dont like the idea of replacing out.

[MURDERCAT]

You acted like you didn't know setup when you would have, even as town.

[MURDERCAT]

So far we have DDMMC with two letters unaccounted for. For multiple kills both nights it has to be either full vig (VV) or one letter and one T. The TT setup does not have a SK.

pedit: I pretty much always re-evaluate at beginning of day. Persivul was looking pretty town to me.

Also here if he knows he is T then he knows it's not vig.

[Persivul]

Dave's analysis of the setup there looks correct to me.

[MURDERCAT]

It's not that it's wrong it's just weird to be thinking about if you are a T. Why are you talking about there being a full vig if you know that's not the case?

[Persivul]

I don't see that as troubling.

Again, nice job on defending. I initially had you in scum because double ISOing you and Ranger showed almost no interaction. As you defended, I realized that was really all I had, and it wasn't much. And nice job Lane for making the right call.

[MURDERCAT]

Really? The whole point of the post was to try to figure out the setup, seems odd he would stop when as T he would know exactly what setup we are in. At first I didn't think about it because I was thinking he could just be the other letter trying to hide it or a v, but once the letters were accounted for I found it again.

I was very nervous on day 3, I really thought we were screwed.

[Bellaphant]

Well done lane and pers, and murder cat for towning up when it mattered.

Well done town.

Release masons it's fine.

[Persivul]

Really? The whole point of the post was to try to figure out the setup, seems odd he would stop when as T he would know exactly what setup we are in. At first I didn't think about it because I was thinking

he could just be the other letter trying to hide it or a v

, but once the letters were accounted for I found it again.

Those are reasonable explanations. I

was

the V. I didn't claim a letter for a long time, and never claimed the V specifically.

I was very nervous on day 3, I really thought we were screwed.

Yeah, we needed, and got, a bit of good luck in the kills both being on bella.

OTOH we started out with bad luck, i.e. a townie self-hammering, AND two PRs being hit N1, so we were due for a break.

[lane0168]

I was going to vote either bnl or murder and it was going to come down to extremely trivial reasons tbh. Murder thinking it was a hammer looked very fake to me. But then when he brought up again not being able to get over me pushing ranger so hard, I just didn't see scum bringing it up again like that. Also for whatever reason the "wow you guys give no fucks" comment started making me feel town.

[lilith2013]

Lilith is the actuary, let's wait for her to explain the odds.

Ha! I'll leave the math to plot, combinatorics was never my strong suit

[RadiantCowbells]

I volunteer.

[RadiantCowbells]

It's super easy because once the two docs are confirmed having a third doc roll is no less likely than having any other PR.

so, gg.

[JaeReed]

I would've pushed Jr to a lynch probably

I vigged JR and this is why.

This was 100% the correct decision. It put town in with a chance of winning.

@town sorry I was so bad. Thanks for pulling through <3

[texcat]

Ha! Well done Lane and Murdercat!

Releasing the mason's thread is fine with me.

The masons had additional information about there being exactly 2M's. We knew early on about what the possible rolls were.

[BNL]

If only I'd been online to hammer...

[texcat]

I didn't really follow the discussion about 3D's, but we'd already had a one-shot doc confirmed dead. So that either meant 2D's or 4D's, and the masons knew there was not room for 4D's.

[JaeReed]

I would've pushed Jr to a lynch probably

I vigged JR and this is why.

Ha! Well done Lane and Murdercat!

Releasing the mason's thread is fine with me.

The masons had additional information about there being exactly 2M's. We knew early on about what the possible rolls were.

Yeah I suspect you trying to lead me to this got you killed >.< sorry again.

Also as for the setup spec from dave's part I think it was fine. Extra slots are filled with VT's iirc. So him being a VT wouldn't mean much to the setup until a massclaim I think? Because I tried to work out the setup based on me being a VT and came to that conclusion.

[MURDERCAT]

Read what he said again. If he was a T he would know that there is no vig and there is an SK. He says that himself basically.

[Ranger]

So close. ;_;

Ah, well.

The game had solid town play, even if they did make some hilariously-wrong moves. Like thinking I would

actually

call my real read for the SK in public. (Kop was my pick for SK.)

[BNL]

Ha! Well done Lane and Murdercat!

Releasing the mason's thread is fine with me.

The masons had additional information about there being exactly 2M's. We knew early on about what the possible rolls were.

Btw Tex, we killed you because your soft counterclaim of Ranger "I suppose you're claiming Doc but you're lying" was a bit too obvious.