Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[mhsmith0]

Mini 1800

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Karnos bussed by math blade, busses right back and instigates a fight (see post 620 and around there)

Open 647
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
Not much three-way interaction, except towards the end where bussing happened

Basically, karnos doesn't have a pattern of doing much with buddies, but DOES seem to have a pattern of bussing, especially when a buddy is on him. This is dampened by the fact that math blade told him to do this in 1800, but I could easily see him taking it to heart (since it worked well) and making it part of his wolf meta. Notably, he doesn't actually vote anywhere outside of Io, which differs from his seeming comfort with mutual bussing when necessary. This suggests that he likely was NOT bussed, though karnos's game count isn't high enough to make it a strong conclusion from that level of evidence alone.

[mhsmith0]

So, Thor, the vote on Karnos was just RVS?

No - what part of 'I townread you' is confusing?
You are a townread.
You're voting Karnos.
Ergo, if I'm right about you, statistically by voting who you vote I'm more likely to target scum.

HOLY FUCK THIS POST IS 20 LEVELS OF AWFUL

VOTE: Thor

Given that this was effectively a chainsaw defense of karnos, what was so terrible about thors justification? I can see it as being a bit lazy, but "20 LEVELS OF AWFUL" seems quite a bit much for that point in time.

thor-- i work a lot. sorry if my attention is not undivided towards this game.

your 64 looks bad because it looks like a shitty excuse to vote karnos. plain and simple.

"well i townread you so the person you vote is mafia"

i've had several townreads before when playing this game that couldn't find scum if it meant their life depended on it. have you played with giga before? do you know that she's good at scumhunting? what if she's the most abysmal scumhunter ever....

There's some reasoning here about it being a mediocre to poor voting rationale, but I don't really see why you'd expect all that much more out of a super early vote. Giga talked to Karnos saying

If you think I'm scum, why not just hammer me, why you going for a new wagon instead? Or at least, why not show intent to hammer?

you're at L-2 karnos :/

no one's hammering yet because i will fight the shit out of them if they try

---

Trying to throw suspicion at Thor was an attempt at diverting my attention away from you. I put my low-information vote onto you because I felt that starting with you would generate helpful reactions, which it clearly is. Scum!Karnos wants to discredit the wagon forming around him before it has a chance to form so that he doesn't have to get involved in a town-lynching wagon (i.e., voting Thor or me). By asking the question you posed in #70, you innocently can figure out why I'm not scumreading Thor while implying that I should be doing so.

The logic behind bringing up 141 is that, after a reread, I realized that your intention in asking #70 was "Why are you scumreading me and not Thor?" As I see it, Io just caught onto this train of thought before I did, which is true.

Also, scum!Karnos has every incentive to vote for Io and not Thor. Io is a vanity wagon. At the moment, there's no way Io will get lynched and thus flip town. That way, it can't make you look suspicious for leading a wagon against a townie. Voting for Thor, however, has the risk of actually going through and putting suspicion around you.

Pretty much your scum motivation is summed up by the fact that you are focused on how people are scumreading you. The fact that you think my RQS was designed to get people lynched, the fact that the votes placed on you are absolutely pathetic ones (except Io's), and how you're flailing against Thor is just really weird when put into a town-mindset. If it makes you feel better, I think the arguments you're making really sound like they're coming from an ISTJ lmao . Whether you're frustrated you were "caught for the wrong reasons" or you just

really

hate being scumread is tbd

and @kts i am sorry

Which actually does seem like a plausible wolf motivation behind that d1 Thor push that karnos was essentially cheerleading and that you were actively on. So, what was so bad about what Thor said that it deserved a vote and hard push from you?

[mhsmith0]

Doing some digging, but essentially my $0.02 is that if I read by d1, giga looks good and trans bad, and if I read by d2 and later, it's the other way around. Obviously one of those two is wrong, but that's basically my headspace right now. Going through d1 stuff right now, may or may not look at d2+ later tonight.

[mhsmith0]

Karnos talking to giga d1:

Spoiler:

there is something else that bothered me about Karnos's responses that I will discuss after I feel I have enough responses to go off of.

Obviously I have to be curious about that, but more importantly: how do you feel about people who flat out refuse to answer your questions?

Karnos basically going out of his way to manipulate giga into suspecting Thor. Not impossible post to a buddy but difficult, and not what Karnos normally does.

Spoiler:

Unless you think Thor & I are the sort of players who would bus each other day 1.

Io, is this and post #70 what lead you to believe that Karnos is adamant about Thor's lynch? If not, could you tell me what I missed?

Karnos, how are you reading Thor at the moment?

Thos *is* acting scummy, though not as much as Io, and I only have one vote.

The problem I have with Thor is his logic is inconsistent. He thinks his read is so good he can trust you as town after only a couple posts. Okay, maybe his read is so good, but if you accept that he is so good at reading people, then shouldn't he pick his own scum to vote, based on his amazing reads? Instead he chooses to sheep you. It's like he is saying he is so good at reading people that he is 100% convinced you are town, but at the same time he isn't confident enough in his reads to independently vote on his biggest scum read. It's a weird inconsistency to me.

There is one perfectly logical conclusion, is that he read you as town and I was his biggest scum read, and that would make perfect sense... but when he was questioned about his vote, he didn't say that was the case... he just said he was sheeping you. It's like he doesn't want to take personal responsibility for the vote, doesn't want to be associated with it. He wants to support the wagon on me but give himself a nice out after I flip town.

Again, Karnos doing work to get giga to specifically suspect Thor and/or discredit his push. Again, not normal for how Karnos interacts with buddies.

Spoiler:

If players know the questionnaire will be used to call them scum

Karnos

, is this what you believe the purpose of the RQS was?

What you or I think about the purpose is irrelevant, since you have already shown that you will use it as an excuse to push a lynch.

Given that knowledge, and knowing that ignoring the RQS has no ill potential, it just sounds like fake scum hunting, busywork essentially. It's like when someone enters thread, asks a few pointed questions, and then never follows up with them.

Shades giga after giga shows no inclination to move off Karnos. Plausible w/w interaction, but not especially indicative of it.

Spoiler:

The fact you're concerned about how you think I'm using the RQS to push your lynch and how you've been trying to draw negative attention onto Thor (as in post 70) tells me your main concern is in how other people are reading you. That's pretty basic scum motivation. You say you're scumreading Thor and Io, but your interactions with them don't seem like scumhutning to me, it's just redrawing attention onto them.

Again with post 70. You refuse to read it as written, instead adding in assumptions about it's motivation. Saying Thor was the only one who hadn't answered questions is a lie. You had not answered your own questionnaire. Several players who were not active had not answered it. Perhaps players in a prior game didn't answer it. As I said in a prior post, in the only other game I played with a questionnaire, one of the players who refused to answer it flipped scum. You can keep trying to twist 70 into an attack on Thor, but that doesn't make it true.

I don't feel the need to share a detailed read of you right now. You aren't a top scum choice, I have no intention of voting you today, based on the current game state, but if I tell you exactly what behavior of yours is townie and what is scummy I am just inviting you to adjust your play and fool me further if you actually are scum.

Gets upset at giga for gigas continued scum read of Karnos, casts shade but no follow through. It's non standard for how Karnos interacts with a bussing buddy, but not disqualifying,

Spoiler:

also i don't see why you couldn't answer my question with a simple "town" or "scum" or even "null", it's not like i'll know why you read me that way and I'll change whatever it is you suspect me for.

Typically, if you are scum, my read on you might help you decide whether or not to nightkill me. Now in this particular setup this is less of a concern, but I don't feel like changing up my strategy at this point because I don't see the benefit.

Empty interaction from Karnos. Null wrt giga.

Spoiler:

As written, the post was written in such a way where it could have only been referring to Thor.

Pretend for a moment that Thor did fill out the questionnaire, and I still made that same post. Are you saying it would be grammatically flawed?

No, there is still a valid interpretation for the post: I was asking a general question.

Misreps answer to gigas post. Not impossible but difficult for a buddy to make this post. Like, actively misreading a buddy's point is not normal to see.

Spoiler:

I answered it as a general question, so of course it's a valid interpretation, but I can't help but think after reading 141 that you were trying to cast some sort of suspicion onto Thor (and myself, as it seems you keep bringing up the fact I was withholding my answers for a little bit). I didn't really read it the way Io was and I was trying to understand where she was coming from in post #105 with pretty much all of her suspicion on you, but after seeing more posts from you, I ended up coming to the same conclusion as her after rereading your ISO and the thread.

I agree, my iso probably looks like crap, but every time I look at this thread there are 2-3 new semantic arguments picking apart my choice of words. Instead of arguing that you know what I meant better than I know what I meant, why not explain why I am scum?

Why would scum!karnos go to all this effort to throw suspicion on to Thor? Why would I be so elusive and sneaky about it, while I come right out and call Io scum and vote her? Wouldn't I just vote Thor, if I wanted him lynched?

And WTF is your logic now about 141. You know posts are made in consecutive order, right? Post 70 was Friday afternoon, Io's responses to it occurred later Friday, and then post 141 was Saturday morning. Does your theory include a time travel device? Otherwise, you can't reverse cause and effect. If 141 caused you to view 70 as a scummy post, that still doesn't explain Io's attacks that occurred prior to it.

Anyway, just answer me this if nothing else: whats the scum motivation? Taking your assumptions, not mine: If I have seen scum ignore questionnaires in other games, and I pointed out Thor was ignoring it here to attack him, maybe, if anything, you have proven I am scum hunting. Why does that make me scum, and not town?


Meh. This is a big waste of time and not getting us closer to finding scum. My iso looks bad because I am making posts like this to respond to nonsense attacks and I don't really have much time to look at anything else going on in the game.

Actively trying to convince giga to get off him. Not counter-bussing, but talking to giga as if they are someone that is worth convincing to change reads. I don't have reason to think that this is within karnos's wolf range to a buddy.

Spoiler:

Scum:

Io

,

Kcdaspot

,

Thor

.

Honorable mention to gigabyte for 298 Those sort of posts are popular among scum, because it's a nice setup to get two miss-lynches in a row- but not a real scum read, because other than that one post, nothing super scummy from her.

I'd be okay with lynching Io or Kcdaspot today.

Plausible w/w with giga, but also plausible just random shade throwing, notably Karnos does NOT go back to this after getting lynched; it's kind of a throwaway shade throw, where if he was trying to distance a buddy I feel like he'd likely be more dedicated to it.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Scum:

Io

,

Kcdaspot

,

Thor

.

Honorable mention to gigabyte for 298 Those sort of posts are popular among scum, because it's a nice setup to get two miss-lynches in a row- but not a real scum read, because other than that one post, nothing super scummy from her.

I'd be okay with lynching Io or Kcdaspot today.

i really have to wonder if this is vote-townie-bus-buddy interactions right here

i never got to talk to kcdaspot about why he was off the karnos wagon, he was interested in voting there but didn't like the (entirely town) wagon composition.

[Transcend]

ntruging theoryu got there buck-o

(i'm drunk don't take anthing i take seriously)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

is drunk transcend as fun as drunk/on sleeping pills kraska

[Transcend]

idk i didn't get that drunk

i think i'm silly and caps a lot

also *say

[mhsmith0]

In the context of day one...

Town!Transcend
Newbie 1721
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... B%5D=27478
has fluid reads, bounces around with his vote, pushes and presses multiple people, especially early
asks questions, reasonably often with a push behind them - 22, 35, 41, 46, 65, 374, 377, etc.
gives substance behind reads, and is sorting the whole board (though some of the sorts are light on heft), see 346 reads list

New York 196
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8029308
has fluid reads, bounces around with his vote, pushes and presses multiple people, especially early
asks questions, reasonably often with a push behind them - 46, 49, 54, 57, 59, 397, etc.

Open 645
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
pushing early, bouncing around with his vote and reads, engaging with most of the board
asks questions, reasonably often with a push behind them - 195, 227, 229 237, 244, etc.


Wolf!Transcend
Mini 1796
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
early emphasis on explaining/justifying his own push - 167, 169,
questions are self-oriented or weak: 176 is in the context of his own read, 278/279 are questions that don't go anywhere, 281 is in the context of talking about his own vote, 411 is sort of a question, and that's basically it for his first 100 posts

I'm explicitly NOT sorting Fire/Ice since
1) It was multiball
2) His partner was already dead when he subbed in
so that's not reasonably comparable to this game

This game
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... B%5D=27478
(page 1 - first 200 posts)
day one engagement much more focused on specific people (Luna Fox, Thor, PC)
questions are rare and weak - 132 is a push on the player pushing karnos, 352 is a reinforcement of his PC push, ditto 423, 440 is decent though, 642 is a push on luna rather than a true question,
TR of karnos was weak - 317 is a playstyle read, and when thor pushed back in 336, he's not really interested in engaging substantively with the karnos read (394, 397 are both weak in that respect), and pushes to change the topic of conversation
436 is a weird reaction to PC - scum would be MORE likely to make a bad vote, not less
695luna notes trans's posts as being really town, but that only applies i think if karnos is also town; if karnos flips red (which he did) it's an easy post for a buddy to make to sell the "I totally didn't think karnos was flipping red" mindset

In terms of day 1, transcend played much closer to his wolf meta than his town meta. I'd felt better about his later days though, so I need to dig into those to see if I still agree w that or not.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Reading that makes me confident that, regardless of who is scum, I'm supposed to have the hammer here. That implies scum!Transcend more than scum!Mhsmith, because scum!Mhsmith probably would rather have Thor as a townbeard.

[mhsmith0]

you probably will. I'm back on D2, I don't feel as strongly about your D2 being bad and trans's being good as I previously did.

[mhsmith0]

By the way, obviously I can't prove it's true, but the kill was once again one that I really wouldn't normally make. Like, if I'm the goon here I've made a series of night kills ONLY with the goal of making kills I wouldn't normally make. Just based on what people have been saying, I'd prefer me/thor/trans to me/you/trans (since each of them could easily just vote the other). And I'd at least consider shooting trans as well, though THAT would be a WIFOM type kill that would depend on my acting ability to convince people that I wouldn't be that blatant. Honestly, I was kinda of expecting a trans kill last night where I'd need to figure out which of you and thor would have the balls to make such a blatantly framing kill.

[mhsmith0]

I also suspect that the posts around the ira shot were basically trans just trying to set me up (selling me as a wolf before the maria flip, then going hard in the paint on me afterwards). Still on D2 but that seems plausible to me, at least off the cuff.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

The Ira kill still makes sense if it's you. What merit would there be from killing me? I definitely do not think you'd consider a Thor kill, so Io makes sense there. How do you suppose it would go if you were scum?

[mhsmith0]

KTS, last words?

If you're town, give us a townbloc of 5 people besides you. Because if you're town then I'm all out of ideas.

Also, this might come off as bullshit, but my vote for you comes with respect to you as a player. I think a lot of people dismiss you as just "trolly", but I've read through some of your games and have reason to believe that you're really a skilled player. Skilled enough that, as scum, you would quickhammer your own partner to make you harder to find. Just wanted to put that out there because I am going to feel terrible about this if you're town.

Yeesh what a bad post

@trans: why was this a bad post? Seems mediocre, maybe a bit AtE'y, not really sure what else drove it being bad.

[mhsmith0]

The Ira kill still makes sense if it's you. What merit would there be from killing me? I definitely do not think you'd consider a Thor kill, so Io makes sense there. How do you suppose it would go if you were scum?

Sure. If I'm the goon:

N3 - I kill Thor instead of Io, because I would SPK there barring a VERY good reason not to. And there wasn't any such good reason not to that I can remember - ESPECIALLY since Io was explicitly town reading me, see

Spoiler:

I don't have a problem with Luna really.
And I do like smith.

Sorry for the short post I'm about to go to another state for the next 2 days so I'll be V/LA for a short time, no more than 48 hours though.

As far as I'm concerned Thor, Giga, Smith, and Luna are all exrtremely unlikely to be scum because of Karnos's basic interactions with them.
Honestly I think KTS is Town adn PC is the most likely person to be Karnos's partner because of this interaction they had.

VOTE: karnos for being the first one to post after my introduction!

How rude. I haven't done a VC recently, I hope that wasn't hammer.

Hello PC.

Just looking at it, it's so casual compared to how Karnos interacted with out people in the begining.
Not to mention it's a pretty light hearted accusation from PC and dropped soon after. And Karnos's responce wasn't even serious either.

Of course PC also has Karnos as top Town as well as Luna and Giga as top scum.
VOTE: PC
I'm aware no one is voting for him, but I don't care when he's the most likely person to be scum in my eyes.

N4 - assuming that I killed Io for some reason, I'm choosing between Ira and you. I probably kill you but Ira is at least something I'd think about. I'd also think about Thor, but at that point, by not killing him N3 I'd basically be somewhat pot-committed to either mislynching him or pocketing him

N5 - I probably kill you to get me/thor/trans F3. Maybe I kill trans just to shut him up, but I don't think I'd really want to deal with a me/thor/you F3. And trans indicated suspicion of thor, and vice-versa, so there'd be a very reasonable chance of a cross-vote requiring zero effort on my end to win. Shooting Thor there is just really odd if I'm the last goon.

Basically you have two night kills (n3 and n5) that are simply not where I ought to be shooting, and n4 is sub-optimal as well, though you can at least make a case for that one being in my interest just to silence him and remove a widespread town read.

I'd actually say the Io kill is just completely bizarre for me to make, given that I was seemingly town read by her, and that her town reads post PC lynch weren't the whole board (unless I mis-remember), and that she hadn't been as active as Thor and she's not the kind of long-standing veteran that Thor is. Like, if I'm the last goon I'd much rather take my chances at snowing her over than snowing Thor over; Thor is a player who can get himself mislynched (I just saw it happen in the MU game) but he also has a knack for scum-hunting, and I wouldn't want to have to fool him over any kind of long term. It's true that killing Io removes a voice that was defending rosske, but if I'm a goon that would literally be my only benefit, whereas it has a lot of detriments, IMO way more than the value of WIFOM would present.

[mhsmith0]

Notable:

Well I'm back now.
Honestly those quote don't really show Rosskee as scum at all.
Plus really PC is just saying to lynch Giga who is the most townie person there is. He can't be that bad of a townie to not see that.

was Io's last substantive post. It also argues against a Giga shot there (though without knowing what Giga likes to do, WIFOM kills aren't impossible), and does suggest a Trans kill motive (i.e. silencing her point defending rosske, and eliminating the possibility that in the process of hard-defending Rosske, she might start to scum-read Trans).

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Hm, I suppose that if Thor were left alive and you were the goon, then Tenshii would have been lynched after Phanton, too. So, that's really indicative of Transcend, especially because I think he was trying to pocket Tenshii.

So I'd be killed not because of my reads or anything, but more out of necessity. That's an interesting tidbit too, but I guess I really don't have any reads to be killed for anyway

also ftr i'm very anti-wifom nks, I argue against their existence. I would kill Io to let Thor push Tenshii, which is what I supposed happened regardless of the remaining goon. I don't think that was Transcend's motive though.

[mhsmith0]

I'd say the trans NK motive would be something like:

N3
silences a widespread town read rosske defender who had been making substantive town reads on multiple slots, and eliminates someone who could have potentially scum read him for his rosske push

N4
trans had been pushing for my lynch, the ira kill easily dovetails with that effort (framing kill of someone who had more energy than substance behind his push on me), while eliminating a widespread town read

N5
thor seemed to prefer a trans lynch to my lynch, and both you and me hadn't indicated a preference towards lynching thor. easy kill for wolf!trans to make

I'm not sure that the kills disqualify you yet, though, I need to re-read. But there's a pretty easy explanation that coincides with wolf!trans for each of them without needing WIFOM or unusual motive.

[mhsmith0]

From start of day 2 on:

Day 2

Trans
803-812 could be legitimately how he saw the game, but it could also be a way to AtE ("I made myself this game's jackass by WKing one of the mafia d1") and avoid attention, and also to avoid the main wagon likely going through without any effort on his part (KTS) while prepping the way for other mislynches
830 is a notable instance of him essentially giving his blessing to the KTS without being on it, and the posts around that could easily be him throwing dirt on a town read to achieve a lynch eventually (see 833 especially)
840 is a good point by Luna, trans doesn't actually seem to bother re-evaluating his thought process given the karnos flip
954 by luna is a isolation decent point, but if fake emotion is within trans's wolf range (and I know that was discussed in the context of his mini win), then it's basically null for him
970 looked fake
1055 by luna points weakly to trans
1057 by luna is a good philosophical point - I didn't think tenshii was really doing that (the substance behind his "clears" seemed really weak, but it's notable in this context that trans wasn't really working to clear anyone other than tenshii, and was even working to throw dirt on what would be the next potential set of ML's after KTS - making KTS vs Luna a true 1v1 double mislynch, by taking the less popular side (the Luna wagon) is plausible agenda-pursuing there
1116 again consents to a potential KTS lynch, without being on the wagon. easy stance to take while potentially preparing the way for a different mislynch after KTS flips green
1162 essentially consents to a PC lynch (though sarcastically)
1164 is actually a weird post given that PC/KTS were the main wagons. If trans truly felt that the "likeliest three" were both outside PC/KTS, why wasn't he taking a harder stance and working to dissolve one or both of those wagons?
1244 is a null post that could easily be a wolf who basically doesn't want to bother with an unwinnable game
1290 never really got answered; transcend threw some shade but never followed through, backed away quickly after I pushed back on him
1325 does argue against the KTS lynch, but doesn't really work to convince others. the follow-through is weak. like, there are posts that push for an alternate lynch (see 1389 for an example) but there's no real heft to it. no strong argument for why KTS is town, just listing off other possible cases
1435 is a decent post hammer post, but it's fakeable too. 1438 also fakeable, no real emotion to it
1461 is a bit dry for a reaction to being "trolled so hard"
1464 is looking for something to attack, seemingly without bothering to try and understand the point I was making



Giga
875 is an interesting read on PC given giga later votes him
895 isn't good, 898 rosske vote on top of it is weird
902-915 seems like a slightly better sequence for giga than trans;
998 is a good defense of PC
1008 is a good post
1030 seems good on tone especially the quick reaction part
1049 is a good point by tenshii
1065 is a weird, though giga had already voted KTS at that point so it wasn't a naked OMGUS
1125 by Io is a fair point wrt Giga (applies to me too FWIW)
1146 don't like this, though if giga had dropped down to PC or KTS, it's not necessarily unreasonable
1175 is a believable vote hop
1402 is working to create town reads without actively sucking up or trying to manipulate
1437 is fakable, but shows more emotion and reads more genuine, ditto 1439, and the quick reaction in 1443/1444 seems good too
1452 - i dislike town blocs, because they make things too easy for wolves to coast by in. but villagers push those too sometimes. poor post but not condemning.


Overall giga's D2 wasn't nearly as bad as I remember, and trans's D2 not nearly as good.

[Transcend]

Too frazzled to take all this shit in.

Read up later.

I'm fuckin town tho.

[mhsmith0]

It's conceivable I guess, but I'm having a really hard time seeing giga being the wolf, and re-reading I'm questioning the reasons I'd had for TR'ing you in the first place.

[mhsmith0]

Day 3
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p8217740
(not much notes from D3)

Trans
1574 is a decent post, but it also doesn't really take any kind of strong stance against the PC lynch, especially given 1575 that points out that he was already lynched anyway
1584/6 were good posts, better on tone / seeming honesty than the post KTS hammer ones
1591 decent but fakable too, overall null with some small town points. 1594 seemed good.

Giga
1580/81 seemed good

[Transcend]

K

[Transcend]

Bout ready to vote smith honestly and say eff it. This is frazzled me though and i will take one more look at this game when I'm fully awake but i went into this day fosing smith and i just had a few questions to ask giga which he answered fairly well.

One thing i will say before i go out against my own fucking will is that i did not pocket tenshii. And i will not stand for having being accused of doing such. Yes, i defended the shit out of scout in creatures mini, but that was tactical. I knew he was jk and i knew i could pseudo confirm someone as mafia. This time it's entirely different and not tactical. He's been my best town read throughout the course of the entire game. He was someone i was not worried in the slightest about being scum. I made a massive fucking wall defending the shit out of him and attacking smith that took me three fucking hours. With all that and being labeled as pocketing genuinely pisses me off.