Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win


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Post Post #1750 (ISO) » Sun Dec 24, 2017 5:14 pm

Post by ProHawk »

Actually it sometimes is
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Post Post #1751 (ISO) » Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:23 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Speaking of effort - none from me until Wednesday night. Pretty sure I'm going to be voting Prohawk, but will review to make sure I'm not missing anything and bring my thoughts together.
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Post Post #1752 (ISO) » Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:43 am

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In post 1751, Fishythefish wrote:Pretty sure I'm going to be voting Prohawk
Why?
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Post Post #1753 (ISO) » Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:17 pm

Post by boring »

In post 1750, ProHawk wrote:Actually it sometimes is
Effort is only AI if it's a player-specific tell. Do you have any reason to believe this is the case with Fishy?
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Post Post #1754 (ISO) » Mon Dec 25, 2017 4:15 pm

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No, I just believe that its easier to take a back-seat when scum especially late game when scum-hunting isn't as relevant since there isn't anything for you to figure out.
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Post Post #1755 (ISO) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:38 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1752, ProHawk wrote:
In post 1751, Fishythefish wrote:Pretty sure I'm going to be voting Prohawk
Why?
Short answer: I've seen several medium-sized things that make me think boring is town, which add up to a pretty firm read.

Long answer: this time tomorrow.
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Post Post #1756 (ISO) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:20 pm

Post by boring »

I'll probably have a few questions for both of you over the next 72-ish hours.
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Post Post #1757 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:47 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Where I am is:

boring

Overall

boring looks to be scumhunting - I get the impression she cares about working out who is scum and has put quite a bit of effort in. I don't think her play around either of the scum lynches looks like scum.

Day 1 - moderate scum read

- Elmo was a little scummy. It's so long ago I've pretty much forgotten why that was.
- The wagon on boring had loads of townies on it. If boring was town, I'd have expected scum to push this mislynch over the edge. DV's play on this wagon also fits with boring scum - jumping on to make it L-1 and then off the moment boring replaced in.

Day 2 - strong town read

- Her attacks on me felt really townish. That's because a) I just don't see that they had any value to scum given how both slots were read, and b) I know I wasn't playing that well; it's a read that makes sense.
- Her play on UC would be weird for scum. She was voting me while having UCV as the obvious backup - since I was never getting lynched, that was a great way to commit to lynching UC without picking up any credit.

Day 3 - no real read

This was the Transcend day. boring made the L-1 post; I'm fine with it.

Day 4 - moderate town read

- boring vs DV seems unlikely to be bussing. It's pretty clear DV aimed to get boring lynched. If he'd succeeded - which was a possibility - scum would have been in real trouble - DV was widely scumread. I suppose this *could* be "we're both weak, bus each other, whoever wins will be stronger". But I think it's much more likely scum would want to get kelbris lynched and get to LYLO.

Day 5 - not much read

I get a gut town read off the big effort of things like the meta on kelbris. But I think that's just a part of my gut that needs suppressing.

Prohawk

Overall

Prohawk's slot did nothing day 1, PH replaced in Day 2. Since then, PH has been fine; his opinions have made sense, and he looks like he's trying to catch scum, though he hasn't done masses. On results, his play makes sense as scum. He didn't interact much with either flipped scumbag, and never pushed for either of them to be lynched.

Day 1 - weak town read

- LUV did nothing.
- Viomi's stay was consumed by the drama with Transcend. I don't think there's much to be got out of that.
- Rem didn't do much, but reading back there's one thing that gives me townpings. here Rem asked boring to justify a townread on sheep, with the implication that Rem didn't agree with it. Arguing about that took up most of the rest of her stay. Now, sheep was scum. Questioning a townread on your buddy doesn't seem like typical scum play.

Day 2 - weak scum read

- Prohawk didn't express much of a read on either of the flipped scum Day 2. He ended up as the L-1 vote for UCV, but before that hadn't said anything much about either of them. This fits with scum not wanting to lynch a buddy but being forced to in the end.

Day 3 - no read

- No posts to speak of.

Day 4 - weak town read

Prohawk came out strong on Day 4, at a time when scum had a strong motivation to hang back and work out the lie of the land. DV was the more likely lynch for loads of the day, but Prohawk kept plugging away at kelbris without really pushing hard. It doesn't look like scum either trying hard for a mislynch OR trying to get towncred.

Day 5 - no read

This day was really dull. kelbris was obviously going to be lynched.

Tracker info

boring was tracked and didn't visit, on a night when I have no idea who would have performed the kill. That is really, really big. If there was no information in thread, that would make it a 2/3 chance that Prohawk was scum. With that track it would take a lot for me to vote boring here.

Conclusion

On his own, Prohawk is moderately townish. But boring is way more townish in the thread, and the tracker information is a big enough deal that it might outweigh everything else anyway. So, Prohawk is scum here.
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Post Post #1758 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:58 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1754, ProHawk wrote:No, I just believe that its easier to take a back-seat when scum especially late game when scum-hunting isn't as relevant since there isn't anything for you to figure out.
The bits of the game where I think I've "taken a back-seat" are the second half of Day 4 and Day 5. In both cases, I was sure I knew who I wanted lynched (DV then kelbris) and pretty sure they were going to end up being lynched. TBH, I think we wasted time on those days not doing very much to advance the game, and was a little bored.
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Post Post #1759 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:10 pm

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In post 1748, ProHawk wrote:Well that sucks, effort meter places Fishythefish as most likely scum.
This was the first post today, so it's sticking in my mind.

What prompted you to think of effort first?
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Post Post #1760 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:14 pm

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@Fishy - what's been town's biggest failure this game, in your opinion?
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Post Post #1761 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:29 pm

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I'm going to be dumping thoughts so I have them all in one-ish place for later. Starting with the NKs.

N1 - Yuria
Outed PR

N2 - Luca Blight
The most competent townie

N3 - Ectomancer
???

N4 - havingfitz
If I understood early D5 correctly, mutant's accidentally outed their roles to scum, making fitz the best NK of the two.

N5 - mutantdevle
Last PR.
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Post Post #1762 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:34 pm

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In post 1760, boring wrote:@Fishy - what's been town's biggest failure this game, in your opinion?
I'm answering this after cause I got one word for this
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Post Post #1763 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:36 pm

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In post 1759, boring wrote:
In post 1748, ProHawk wrote:Well that sucks, effort meter places Fishythefish as most likely scum.
This was the first post today, so it's sticking in my mind.

What prompted you to think of effort first?
Fish's lack of effort yesterday. I hadn't had anything scummy stick out to me with him so that's all I could equate.
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Post Post #1764 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:37 pm

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In post 1757, Fishythefish wrote:On his own, Prohawk is moderately townish. But boring is way more townish in the thread, and the tracker information is a big enough deal that it might outweigh everything else anyway. So, Prohawk is scum here.
You know this is a tough position as scum right? Ideally you want both options open to not lock yourself into a 1v1 so early
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Post Post #1765 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:07 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@Prohawk: could you say more about why you think I'm scum over boring? What do you think about my reasons for low activity Day 3/4?
In post 1760, boring wrote:@Fishy - what's been town's biggest failure this game, in your opinion?
I think the biggest failures were three individual mistakes from Transcend, which contributed a lot to our not-so-great position going into Day 4:
1) Day 1 gambit which outed a PR - led to an unnecessary PR death
2) Day 2 quickhammer - led to a day 3 mislynch
3) Generally being a pain in his way of playing, in a way that doesn't provide much useful information. This contributed a lot to replacements and a messy day 1, which we've struggled to get much useful stuff out of.
In post 1764, ProHawk wrote:
In post 1757, Fishythefish wrote:On his own, Prohawk is moderately townish. But boring is way more townish in the thread, and the tracker information is a big enough deal that it might outweigh everything else anyway. So, Prohawk is scum here.
You know this is a tough position as scum right? Ideally you want both options open to not lock yourself into a 1v1 so early
I don't much like this question... it's getting me to answer "If I were scum...", which always looks bad. Why did you ask it?

But yeah, I'd agree that scum would rather be able to vote for either townie, since it's fairly unclear where this LYLO is going.
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Post Post #1766 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:08 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1765, Fishythefish wrote:@Prohawk: could you say more about why you think I'm scum over boring? What do you think about my reasons for low activity Day 3/4?
For activity here read effort.
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Post Post #1767 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:26 am

Post by boring »

I'd argue that scum
act
just like town in LYLO. There's no particular need to keep your options open, when LYLO is just a matter of making a townie vote wrong. So whether scum tries creates a 1v1, or tries to cultivate a TvT, it hardly matters. Town have reasons for each approach too. Either they've decided, and fight for the lynch, or they want to keep things neutral as long as possible while they decide.
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Post Post #1768 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:53 am

Post by Fishythefish »

^ I definitely agree that both alignments sometimes do both things (create a 1v1 vs remain on the fence). If I had to guess, I'd imagine scum tend to remain on the fence a tad more, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if I were wrong. Not sure any of this has much to do with this game, unless anyone is arguing my approach here is AI.
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Post Post #1769 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:16 pm

Post by boring »

I guess I'm arguing that there's almost nothing AI to be gleaned from LYLO play (except, of course, for votes).

I've been sifting through combination ISOs, but I'm not ready to share my findings. So my posts are limited in depth.

Is there anything either of you plan to review and summarize, so I don't duplicate effort?
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Post Post #1770 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:08 pm

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What would you like me to review?
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Post Post #1771 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:58 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

@boring: I don't have any plans to do much more thinking for my own benefit - I've reread already, and barring extraordinary posts from one of you I'm settled in my decision. But I have time, so if there's any part of the game you'd like my thoughts on do shout.

@PH: there's an outstanding question for you at the top of 1765.
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Post Post #1772 (ISO) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:55 pm

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In post 1770, ProHawk wrote:What would you like me to review?
I'd actually like to know your thoughts on days 1 and 2. In general, and as they pertained to your slot.

@Fishy - reviewing your Day 1, I was really lost on your progression on IceGuy. You started on him, seemed to forget him entirely, and then only returned when he was clearly the lynch. Do you remember enough from that day to fill in the gaps for me?
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Post Post #1773 (ISO) » Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:10 am

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In post 1772, boring wrote:@Fishy - reviewing your Day 1, I was really lost on your progression on IceGuy. You started on him, seemed to forget him entirely, and then only returned when he was clearly the lynch. Do you remember enough from that day to fill in the gaps for me?
With some rereading to jog my memory, yes.
1) Early on, I saw something from IceGuy that was a decent scumtell for the RVS.
2) After that, I thought IceGuy's play was fine, and "a decent scumtell for the RVS" became a less important thing as other stuff happened.
3) I returned to avoid a no lynch (looks like only a few hours before deadline, with IG's wagon leading yours by 2 votes).
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Post Post #1774 (ISO) » Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:55 pm

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I've concluded that Ecto was killed because they thought he was a PR. I don't see any clear line from him to either identified scum or either of you. His sudden standoffishness must have spooked them.

By the way, can anyone explain the connection people were making D1 between my slot's alignment and those of Yuria and IceGuy? Players just seemed to go with it, but I don't see how those kinds of associations could be rational D1.

I know I'm dwelling on D1, but there was so much chaos that day. I think it might hold a lot of information.
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