mutantdevle wrote:Statistics suggest that the most common pattern in death relating to 2 players is that scum will kill 1 above or below their previously killed player on the draft list. Obviously, I can't protect myself and CityElectric just isn't worth saving. Besides, this would only occur if scum killed either of us because we are a threat with our reads. CityEletric hasn't said much and my reads are clearly wrong for Chip to be town. I'm also SUPER lynch bait-y now. So basically, not too worried about that.
Comm is the obvious choice for the night kill and best case scenario is if they go for it. However, I have no intention of protecting Comm. Comm said that they were not an investigative role and that their role would be useless if it was exposed. I reinforced the idea Comm was an investigative even after he said this to hopefully trick the scum :3. Based on this information, specifically the part he is useless if claimed, the only 4 roles he could be are Vengeful, 1-Shot PGO, Doctor or 1-Shot Commuter. Obviously, he is not the doctor since I am so that just leaves 3. Commuter has NEVER been chosen let alone picked so I'm ruling that out despite the survival priority aspect aligning with Comm's play. That leaves Vengeful and PGO. Since there is a chance he is a PGO and almost definitely going to use his ability tonight, that's both why I wanted him to live to see tonight and am not protecting him. However, I'm inclined to think he is the Vengeful as that is more useless than PGO if claimed. If he is Vengeful, then that makes him seem a little scummier to me. If scum, then I'd hope for a vig kill. If town, scum kill.
So that limits my options down to just the likely PRs. I was going to protect NSG again but I'm doubting my town read on her. Something that was super compelling for me though was my statistics. In 4 out of the 12 previous games, the #1 in the draft order gets night killed. In 100% of those games, this occurs on night 2. If texcat is town and the scum plan to kill her, it will happen tonight.
!protect texcat
If any of these are the scenario tomorrow then I'll be sad:
I am night killed. I'm not usually so arrogant but I feel that my role is important (not so sure about my opinions though). Like, I really hope they don't pick up on my accidental doc crumbs.
Comm is a town PGO and is vig killed so a town vig dies too.
Comm is town and is the only one who dies.
2 townies die. (either by an incorrect Comm revenge kill or the scum have a vig; ESPECIALLY the latter).
If any of these are the scenario tomorrow then I'll be happy:
No one dies. This means I can confirm textcat as town. Since Chip was the JK there would be no other cause of no kill. This also means that if I am pushed to L-1 I can role claim as doctor and confirm texcat as town. This means I would be night killed N3 and texcat would be killed N4. However, on D4 texcat would be able to reveal who they used their abilities on each night to boost the town. (unless they have a vig in which case RIP).
Comm is town and is shot by the mafia and kills a scum.
Comm is scum and gets vig killed but no one else dies. This again confirms to me texcat is town with the added benefit of scum dying also.
Also pretty sure Aster is scum. They seemed a little frustrated that my play day 1 wasn't getting me votes day 2. This sounds like scum who wanted me NK but only kept me alive as lynch bait. I'm not going to mention this unless I am forced to role claim though.
