Open 703: Masons and Mafia Town Win!

[Gamma Emerald]

@almost50 while I agree it was a stupid plan wouldn't the goons know that they aren't 1 shot from their role PM, and thus wouldn't make such a statement to me this makes me more likely to think comm is a townie

IDK I'll read the OP again but for now it's NAI

[Alisaes French Maid]

Day 1, VC 3

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch!

havingfitz (2) -

Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey

Almost50 (2) -

JunkoChan, Gamma Emerald

JunkoChan (2) -

TwoInAMillion, rb

jzhenson93 (1) -

mozamis

humaneatingmonkey (1) -

MawhrinSkel

rb (1) -

jzhenson93

CommKnight (1) -

Almost50

Gamma Emerald (1) -

havingfitz

Not Voting (2) -

CommKnight, wavemode

Mod Notes

- wavemode is VLA until the 17th
- Gamma Emerald will be VLA from the 21st to the 25th
- havingfitz is VLA until Monday

Deadline:

(expired on 2017-12-22 18:00:00)

[rb]

VOTE: CommKnight

fake dumbtell

bye scum

[rb]

all aboard this train please, we're headed for lynchtown

[TwoInAMillion]

I think comm could be scum, but I'm not so sure.

Maybe he honestly thought it was a good idea?

[Almost50]

@almost50 while I agree it was a stupid plan wouldn't the goons know that they aren't 1 shot from their role PM, and thus wouldn't make such a statement to me this makes me more likely to think comm is a townie

Yeah, but he started with the assumption we

do not understand the setup

. which he probably is more or less correct about it, so if one doesn't fully understand and just goes along with the plan on the false assumption each goon can only shoot once then it pays off.

Also, you're overlooking the main point: "Let's wagon 2 players". <<THIS is where the trick is. Scum won't wagon one of theirs, and Mason won't wagon one of theirs either. Masons though won't be able to tell because they don't know the alignment of the player being wagoned unless they're a Mason, while the Scum will be able to tell.

Like, if X is being wagoned and they're a Mason. I could either vote them or not, and Masons won't be able to tell if I'm a VT SRing their buddy or Scum pushing for a mislynch. Any VT won't be able to tell my alignment either because they don't even know X's alignment). SCUM -however- will know X is "not scum", and can observe and assess the manner I approach the wagon, so if X gets lynched and flips a Mason they'd be able to tell if I was their Mason buddy or not.

You know what? I'll put it in the simplest was ever: Masons are a "town friendly 3P group". Unlike Scum they do NOT need to "bus" for Town!cred, so if I was Scum and a Mason gets lynched I'd probably be shooting outside of the wagon.

This does apply to every wagon, BUT Comm is suggesting we wagon TWO players simultaneoulsy, which gives Scum "double speed" on spotting everyone's voting behaviour.

If you still fail to see my point then it's most probably my problem. I'm not sure though how to present my case any clearer.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm kinda offput by the amount of pushback Comm is receiving but A50 has some sound reasoning in his most recent post so I'll think on it a bit.

[humaneatingmonkey]

If a mason claims, he's dead anyway.

I think your POV of this game is coming from a different win-con but I'm not sure yet.

hem...

Normally a fake claim would come from scum under duress. A fakemasonclaimingscum might expect to survive unless/until a real mason decided to cc. Which I would argue...a mason should claim for the 1 for 1 exchange of scum and mason which imo results in advantage town.

Enter Gamma's suggestion...VTs should claim mason. This puts the real masons into the quandary of deciding whether a fake claim is from a VT or scum. Masons don't know which it is. They can't discuss amongst themselves because there are no PTs per the mod. Do they cc to get into a 1v1 potentially with a VT? Do they "just wagon that shit" and possibly lynch a VT? All the while helping scum narrow in on them. Under Gamma's suggestion masons should be more likely to not CC and should be LESS likely to "wagon that shit."

How is encouraging VTs to fakeclaim going to help town if it could either result in masons unnecessarily claiming OR provide an umbrella of uncertainty for scum to possibly claim mason and get further in the game?

I see no advantage to encouraging VTs to claim mason (to trick scum into shooting them) when at the same time it opens up the possibility of scum safely fakeclaiming mason to save their ass.

What Gamma's suggestion has also done imo is made a situation where a real mason might feel the need to claim less valid. Under Gamma's suggestion why should town suspect of a player believe a real mason claim?

I'm open to being convinced otherwise but I do not see any value atp in suggesting VTs should fake claim. It's not going to entice scum to shoot said mason claimer (unless scum are idiots) and it only adds fogs up the claim for town.

So please elaborate on how my thought process is off and how my wincon pov is different from yours?

A mason claiming would probably reveal other masons by interaction. I don't think anyone should be claiming anything other than mason.
Town claims mason? Doesn't matter if it could come from town or scum. ANYTHING can come from town or scum. It's the default setting.
Scum claims mason? Who the fuck would he fool except himself? Masons know who masons are.
Town possibly lynching a VT would help scum narrow down on who the masons are? VTs claiming VTs would help scum narrow down anyway.

How is encouraging VTs to fakeclaim going to help town if it could either result in masons unnecessarily claiming OR provide an umbrella of uncertainty for scum to possibly claim mason and get further in the game?

It shouldn't result in masons unnecessarily claiming. And how the fuck does a fakeclaiming scum get further into the game? No he won't.

I'm open to being convinced otherwise but I do not see any value atp in suggesting VTs should fake claim. It's not going to entice scum to shoot said mason claimer (unless scum are idiots) and it only adds fogs up the claim for town.

No! There is no value in masons claiming. They will just be dead. With a fog, maybe they wouldn't.

Again, the town should lynch according to who they believe is town or not — not whoever claims whatever.

So please elaborate on how my thought process is off and how my wincon pov is different from yours?

Because you're preaching that masons should claim when they never should. You are setting it up by using premises that are invalid.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Since you guys don't seem to understand the set-up fully and already fucked one plan completely, let's get this out onto the table.

There are NO night kills. Masons and Mafia cannot talk with each other. They may leave hints in some of their posts that the other members of their team will be more observant of.

We can actually force the mafia's hand. Pick one person to be hammer and pick two people to be at L1. If one or both are scum, they'll be forced to use their daykill attempt or completely risk being lynched without attempting one.

We ensure this method works because anyone who steps outside of two people to put at L1 is immediately lynched the next day, no waiting period, no time for scum to decide to attempt their daykills to kill masons, they get lynched for mishammering.

Any objections?

Almost50 already broke this one. So no.

Also, I'm suspicious about your whiteknighting and condescending tone. It's not organic.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I also don't get how fake claiming helps, masons can't CC or they will get killed, so any scum can also fake claim mason and wont be CC so I have no idea what the point of this is.

You got it right. Scum would also fake claim mason anyway to get a CC. The point is nobody should ever claim mason, and that obscuring mason claims are more helpful to town. Everybody should fakeclaim mason at L-1.

If you don't want to be lynched and brought to the point of being lynched, just be town and don't do scum.

[humaneatingmonkey]

the odds improve as townies are lynched but that's not a winning game plan.

That would also improve the odds of scum shooting a mason.

Honestly, as much as having some kind of algorithm to approaching the game would be helpful, I'm not sure that there are any possible plans that would give us a higher probability of winning other than good old fashioned scumhunting. Taking the guesswork out of the game like that greatly reduces the amount of content in thread to draw reads from, allowing scum to hide behind "following the plan."

Yes. Let's just scumhunt. It would be more helpful to obscure the mason claims. Let's take away the mason part of this game and take advantage of the fact that four members of the town have better reads than most of us.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm also suspicious of Gamma Emerald's hovering.

Now here's some reads:

INCLINED TO NOT LYNCH:
rb
MawhrinSkel
jzhenson93

INCLINED TO BE SUSPICIOUS AT:
Almost50

INCLINED TO WAGON:
TwoInAMillion
CommKnight
JunkoChan

INCLINED TO FLASHLYNCH:
havingfitz

NOT EVEN PART OF THE GAME YET
Hongzi
mozamis
wavemode

[Hongzi]

Also...odds of picking both scum for the pair are 4/13 * 1/4. I.e. 4/52 OR 1/13. So just under 8% odds.

See I read CommKnight's 87 and I knew there was going to be a multiplicative aspect he had left out.

VOTE: CommKnight

[humaneatingmonkey]

Actually, I'm currently brainstorming which default claim should town go for. I think claiming mason would be more alignment indicative for either town or scum, but it would result in town lying and that could fuck up our reads of that person. If everyone was told to claim VT, it has the same fog effect albeit real VTs would not be lying — therefore we can read them better. I was thinking earlier in the perspective that scum claiming masons would spew more bullshit and trap themselves more into the corner. However, it might have the same effect for VTs.

Final suggestion: Everybody should just claim VT instead. No masons should claim. Ever.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Also...odds of picking both scum for the pair are 4/13 * 1/4. I.e. 4/52 OR 1/13. So just under 8% odds.

See I read CommKnight's 87 and I knew there was going to be a multiplicative aspect he had left out.

VOTE: CommKnight

Why do you think is he just not town who fucked up a strategy?

[Hongzi]

Fuck, I really meant TwoInAMillion when I said CommKnight.

unvote

gonna look rq at Twoey's ISO because that math was erratic

[humaneatingmonkey]

Final suggestion: Everybody should just claim VT instead. No masons should claim. Ever.

I just want to add that anyone who would claim mason = scum — and that we should politely lynch that player. There's no value in masons convincing anyone that they're masons.

[Gamma Emerald]

My scumfuck sense is tingling

[rb]

My scumfuck sense is tingling

did you accidentally open your role PM?

:^)~

[Almost50]

Upon a reread of the game it looks like I missed responding to a couple of posts

@almost50 while I agree it was a stupid plan wouldn't the goons know that they aren't 1 shot from their role PM, and thus wouldn't make such a statement to me this makes me more likely to think comm is a townie

If this had come from anyone else but Godel I'd probably be suspicious of them. However, I only played you once in that cannibals game so I'm giving you the benefit of doubt. Also, if you thought you needed a mentor to play the game you probably are sincere in expressing doubt here, so I guess I owe you and explanation:

Since you guys don't seem to understand the set-up fully and already fucked one plan completely, let's get this out onto the table.

This was the prelude for Comm's proposition. Does it sound like he's expressing any doubt or lack of knowledge? Because it sounds to me that he is being overconfident I would have fell for it if I didn't know better.

Does Comm fake confidence as Town when he's not sure? Absolutely not. What Comm would have done was contact the mod (just as I did) if he wasn't sure.

Again: Comm is suggesting he knows the setup better than mos/all of us, yet he made a basic mistake in his proposition than can only come from an ignorant Townie. Conclusion: Comm was

faking

a townslip, while simultaneously trying to advocate an anti-town agenda.

This is Scum!Comm (I know Town!Comm well enough)

That's it. I'm never gonna vote fitz ever in this game.

Why?

I'm also gonna give some space, but I need to note this is "posturing" and doesn't look good for you, as it's self-evident I hard TR fitz for his overall posting, and especially for his #80 which had just preceded my quoted declaration. Do you really think it needed explanation?

Fuck, I really meant TwoInAMillion when I said CommKnight.

I liked you better when you were voting Comm, as TwoInAMillion's #87 was him actually refuting Comm's #84. It even started with:

I don't see how this will force scum to do anything.

Which implies TIAM doesn't approve of Comm's proposed plan (and if I understand correct you agree with fitz' #902 which you quoted when you voted Comm, and fitz was basically also arguing against Comm's plan)

I just want to add that anyone who would claim mason = scum — and that we should politely lynch that player. There's no value in masons convincing anyone that they're masons.

I don't like this post. It smells on so many levels. The best interpretation is "Lynch the Masons anyway."

You see, if a someone claims Mason the Masons will know if it's legit. However, chances are they won't be on the wagon to start with, so this is directed at the VTs in an attempt to plant the idea that a claim doesn't mean shit and they should go ahead and lynch anyway.

I will try to explain in details: X is a Mason being wagoned. His fellow Masons are trying to stay off the Wagon. If he gets lynched they're probably screwed, but without them there's a good chance he won't be lynched.

If he is pushed enough and put to L-1 he would claim, and it should convince the VTs to unvote, but he would be shot anyway.

HOWEVER, if X was a VT and claimed a Mason and was unvoted, Scum would be shooting him, and it would backfire on them.

THIS is what humaneatingmonkey is trying to avoid

.

So, the post actually translates: "Lynch anyway, so we don't have to risk shooting them."

2 Scums down, 2 more to go.

[Almost50]

I'm of the opinion we should apply Comm's plan now, but under these simple conditions:

1- The two wagons would be on Comm & humaneatingmonkey
2- The hammerer is either fitz or rb (my top 2 TRs)

[humaneatingmonkey]

I just want to add that anyone who would claim mason = scum — and that we should politely lynch that player. There's no value in masons convincing anyone that they're masons.

I don't like this post. It smells on so many levels. The best interpretation is "Lynch the Masons anyway."

You see, if a someone claims Mason the Masons will know if it's legit. However, chances are they won't be on the wagon to start with, so this is directed at the VTs in an attempt to plant the idea that a claim doesn't mean shit and they should go ahead and lynch anyway.

I will try to explain in details: X is a Mason being wagoned. His fellow Masons are trying to stay off the Wagon. If he gets lynched they're probably screwed, but without them there's a good chance he won't be lynched.

If he is pushed enough and put to L-1 he would claim, and it should convince the VTs to unvote, but he would be shot anyway.

HOWEVER, if X was a VT and claimed a Mason and was unvoted, Scum would be shooting him, and it would backfire on them.

THIS is what humaneatingmonkey is trying to avoid

.

So, the post actually translates: "Lynch anyway, so we don't have to risk shooting them."

2 Scums down, 2 more to go.

You're wrong tho and I'll tell you why tomorrow.

[Gamma Emerald]

That's it. I'm never gonna vote fitz ever in this game.

Why?

I'm also gonna give some space, but I need to note this is "posturing" and doesn't look good for you, as it's self-evident I hard TR fitz for his overall posting, and especially for his #80 which had just preceded my quoted declaration. Do you really think it needed explanation?

With that level of confidence yes, it DOES need explanation.

[Gamma Emerald]

Fuck, I really meant TwoInAMillion when I said CommKnight.

unvote

gonna look rq at Twoey's ISO because that math was erratic

This was 3 hours ago wtf pal

[Gamma Emerald]

I think my biggest issue with A50 right now is how surface-level his play feels this game.