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Post Post #675 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:19 pm

Post by Equinox »

Vote Count 3.01mutantdevle (1) - Elmo TeH AzN

Not Voting (4) - Almost50, havingfitz, mutantdevle, Not_Mafia


With 5 votes, it will take 3 to reach majority.

The deadline is Thursday, January 18, 2018, at 10:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-18 22:00:00).

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Post Post #676 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:10 pm

Post by Elmo TeH AzN »

In post 673, mutantdevle wrote:I really don't think you are right.

I'd like to hear everyone's opinions on the idea of a no lynch before we start throwing votes out over it.
Right about what? Seriously your putting the game into the hands of RNG which is a zero sum game.
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Post Post #677 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:45 pm

Post by Almost50 »

@Firz: What do you think of the No Lynch option?

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Post Post #678 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:47 pm

Post by Not_Mafia »

SK could have NK immunity, No lynch is a no go
Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?
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Post Post #679 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:19 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 678, Not_Mafia wrote:SK could have NK immunity, No lynch is a no go
GDI, I wasn't asking YOU! :facepalm:

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Post Post #680 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:26 pm

Post by Almost50 »

@N_M: I asked fitz for a purpose, and I was working on the ISOs of him, mutant, Bins and Chip. Here's what I got:

Quite frankly I could see mutant as he 3rd Mafioso too.

1- He defended Bins early on in #
2- He planted the seeds for Bins' fake claim fake claim in #
3- Bins even acknowledged receipt of the idea in #
4- He went on to defend the idea of letting the claimed SK live in # even after I had linked him with the game we almost lost for doing just that.
5- He admits Elmo is the one to refer to if we intended to meta read him in #. and Elmo already voted him right after his "let the SK live" proposition (see #)
6- Finally, his readlist is on # fits the profile of group scum with Bins in the Town leans and Chip in the Nulls.

Either way, one of mutant/Fitz is the SK and the other is the 3rd Mafia. I'm not as good in hunting the solo scum, but I can see either flipping Mafia, so I'm fine with either lynch, tbh.

Also, skimming over mutant's ISO once more I see he was SRing Sauce for being precisely the SK, so he might've shot Sauce last night, while Fitz shot Maxous? If that's the case then Fitz' readlist at the bottom of # atill makes sense. He TR'd Bins and mutant, thus didn't vite Bins and haven't shot mutant. The problem is he didn't bother voting Bins after she claimed SK but I guess it could be bc he thought that may draw the Mafia attention to him being the SK.

He had Maxous in his scum pile, and Max was the only one alive last night from that pile for him to shoot.

Further down his ISO his # was a strong FoS of Lalendra, so it makes sense he shot her after Math claimed Cop and Raya was very much cleared of being Bins' p.

Moving on with the assumption Fitz is the SK, in # (bottom 3rd) he's fiddling with the idea of letting Bins live. I could explain this in many ways, like maybe he wanted a guaranteed target? Or maybe he wasn't going to shoot her and thus would be guaranteed she gets lynched the next day? Or maybe he just didn't want her to flip this early so we would keep thinking she might be the SK?

Fitz does vote Bins though in # with the quote "Hopefully she's mafia". Shortly after he unvotes her in #

Alright check # for yourselves. This is the guy who shot Maxous for sure. That post though suggests he's the 3rd Mafia, but what do I know?

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Post Post #681 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:29 pm

Post by Almost50 »

@Elmo/N_M: Which is the more likely SK in your own views? I think it best to lynch the SK today.

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Post Post #682 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:35 pm

Post by Elmo TeH AzN »

Right now if i had to choose it would be:
Fitz or Mutant. Right now its really hard to tell.
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Post Post #683 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:48 pm

Post by mutantdevle »

@Almost, are you going to give your opinion on the no lynch idea or are we to assume the things you said before me are your opinion on it?
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Post Post #684 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:50 pm

Post by mutantdevle »

In post 682, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Right now if i had to choose it would be:
Fitz or Mutant. Right now its really hard to tell.
Wtf... he literally just asked you if you think myself or fitz is the SK... you can’t just repeat the question as your answer...
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Post Post #685 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:51 pm

Post by mutantdevle »

I will reply to Almost’s points later. Phone posting.
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Post Post #686 (ISO) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:55 pm

Post by Elmo TeH AzN »

In post 684, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 682, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Right now if i had to choose it would be:
Fitz or Mutant. Right now its really hard to tell.
Wtf... he literally just asked you if you think myself or fitz is the SK... you can’t just repeat the question as your answer...
Really your no lynch was the dumbest thing Ive heard in a long time. It makes me think your the SK and just fitz in general. Something's off about it. Right now I need to rad thru the whole game again adn figure it out.
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Post Post #687 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:53 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 683, mutantdevle wrote:@Almost, are you going to give your opinion on the no lynch idea or are we to assume the things you said before me are your opinion on it?
When I proposed it as a second option I also said it was the unlikely route to go, and that it was too complicated.

Spoiler:
I would have considered it more if I wasn't already 99% sure of who the TWO scums are. In the off case I'm wrong about either of you/fitz it'd be a really well-deserved win for X (I'm 100% Y is Town). Still, even in this case we have a 50% chance of eliminating one of the SK/Mafia today and be guaranteed there is a tomorrow for us.

Anyway I slice it I just can't see it as a better option to No Lynch. We have our fate in our own hands, so why put it in scum hands?


tldr: No. I'm for the lynch.

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Post Post #688 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:44 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

VOTE: Mutant
Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?
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Post Post #689 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:55 am

Post by Elmo TeH AzN »

In post 687, Almost50 wrote:tldr: No. I'm for the lynch.
I was going to be lost and read this like 5 times before I got it
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Post Post #690 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:23 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 688, Not_Mafia wrote:VOTE: Mutant
Intent to hammer


Feel free to entertain us all with a claim and/or last reads. (I'm just doing it out of courtesy).

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Post Post #691 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:25 am

Post by mutantdevle »

If Fitz hammers whilst I am writing my next post then lynch him. Also, damn you N_M, now I have to say stuff without getting to hear Fitz's opinion (which is whose I wanted to hear the most). If I let him post before I clear things up, there's a chance that post includes a vote.

- Writing a post now.
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Post Post #692 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:25 am

Post by mutantdevle »

Don't you dare hammer me whilst I'm writing either Almost.
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Post Post #693 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:49 am

Post by havingfitz »

Checking in. Not sure who I suspect so not voting anyone yet.
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Post Post #694 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:54 am

Post by mutantdevle »

Fitz I swear to god if you hammer imma be so mad. Not at you, but at any town that allowed you to be in a position to hammer on Mylo (still writing my post).
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Post Post #695 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:08 am

Post by mutantdevle »

I'm not the vig. Nor am I the SK. Nor am I the last mafia. I'm one of 2 vanilla townies left in the game. The seemingly genuine support of a no lynch was a reaction test.

Anyone who supported the no lynch I would have wanted dead. Such a suggestion is fundamentally scummy for many reasons:
In post 676, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:your putting the game into the hands of RNG
- Of which this RNG is scum influenced. They would get to decide, not us.
In post 672, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Your down to a 1-1-1 game where it's who played a better game the SK or mafia leaving it in the hands of a town player. Odds of that are 60% if I'm right.
- You probably are right. I've seen this situation once before where the town decided to no lynch with 1 scum and 1 SK still alive. It resulted in a 1v1v1 and the town player basically chose who won based on how kind each of them was during the game.
In post 671, mutantdevle wrote:No lynch + 1 NK = [2v1v1 (same position day 4)] / [3v1 (SK OR Mafia lose + strong town day 4)].
- This is the main appeal of the no lynch. It is also impossible. For there to only be 1 kill (assuming both scum perform a kill) they'd have to hit the same person. Obviously, no one can shoot themselves so this is impossible.

Additionally, aiming for only 1 night kill is statistically a bad idea since for this to occur the scum, again, have to hit the same target. This is statistically unlikely. By lynching, we actually increase the chance of only 1 night kill.

Finally, lynching is our last chance of control over the events of tomorrow. Our lynch has a 40% of hitting scum. Furthermore, if we no lynch, scum has a 75% chance of hitting town EACH. If we lynch, the scums chance will either be 50% (if we hit town) or 100% (if we hit scum) the thing about hitting scum though is that it's a good thing.



So basically, I do not agree with no lynching, it's a fucking stupid idea. This was a reaction test to see if any scum would gain the confidence to support the idea and hence expose themselves.

"gAh, 'TiS nOt A rEaCtIoN tEsT, hE iS jUsT cHaNgInG hIs mInD 'cOs We CaUgHt HiM!!!"

Spoiler: Proof
Well, clearly no one read this:
In post 671, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 663, Almost50 wrote:I mean, Having wasn't voting either of the Scum flips. In fact he wasn't voting this AT ALL. He also is was heavily suspected by Mathdino which makes a sense for Mafia to shoot Dino if they did. Finally, the readlist reaction he posted had Bins as a top TR with Chip hidden in the TBD (that's what scum usually do when they post a test readlist of only 3 categories, since they to won't have trouble voting any of their claimed SRs, and is usually better than the strategy Bins used. Oh, and see Fits was on Bins top TRs too, alongside ME. :lol:

But now I'm considering our options if : Lynch Mafia!Fitz, go into the night and have the SK shoot one Townie. We emerge as 3 and it is down to the 2 living Townies best judgement.

OR, we could No Lynch anyone and hope that the SK will shoot Fitz anyway, but who would Fitz shoot is the question. If he shoots a Townie it's the same result. If he shoots the SK, we win. If he doesn't shoot at all, he's screwed anyway but we come out as 4 tomorrow. Still, the SK could shoot a Townie instead and then we emerge as 2-1-1 tomorrow which agrees necessitates that we also No Lynch tomorrow, and hope that scum will cross kill.

OK, the second option is reliant with on Fitz actually having reads, which I very much doubt. It is also way too complicated this , but I thought I'd throw that out anyway.

I think I'm better off leaving this for the morning when my mind is obviously fresher. I think I may have overlooked something in my 2nd option (which we are less likely to follow anyway), so I probably will spot my scummy
mistake when I reread what idea I just typed.
Because what was originally written was this:
In post 663, Almost50 wrote:I mean, Having wasn't voting either of the Scum flips. In fact he wasn't voting AT ALL. He also was heavily suspected by Mathdino which makes sense for Mafia to shoot Dino if they did. Finally, the readlist he posted had Bins as a top TR with Chip hidden in the TBD (that's what scum usually do when they post a readlist of only 3 categories, since they won't have trouble voting any of their claimed SRs, and is usually better than the strategy Bins used. Oh, and Fits was on Bins top TRs too, alongside ME. :lol:

But now I'm considering our options: Lynch Mafia!Fitz, go into the night and have the SK shoot one Townie. We emerge as 3 and it is down to the 2 living Townies best judgement.

OR, we could No Lynch and hope that the SK will shoot Fitz anyway, but who would Fitz shoot is the question. If he shoots a Townie it's the same result. If he shoots the SK, we win. If he doesn't shoot at all, he's screwed anyway but we come out as 4 tomorrow. Still, the SK could shoot a Townie instead and then we emerge as 2-1-1 tomorrow which necessitates that we also No Lynch tomorrow, and hope that scum will cross kill.

OK, the second option is reliant on Fitz actually having reads, which I very much doubt. It is also way too complicated, but I thought I'd throw that out anyway.

I think I'm better off leaving this for the morning when my mind is fresher. I think I may have overlooked something in my 2nd option (which we are less likely to follow anyway), so I probably will spot my mistake when I reread what I just typed.
The version I quoted is obviously much bigger. This is because I added some words:
In post 671, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 663, Almost50 wrote:I mean, Having wasn't voting either of the Scum flips. In fact he wasn't voting
this
AT ALL. He also
is
was heavily suspected by Mathdino which makes
a
sense for Mafia to shoot Dino if they did. Finally, the readlist
reaction
he posted had Bins as a top TR with Chip hidden in the TBD (that's what scum usually do when they post a
test
readlist of only 3 categories, since they
to
won't have trouble voting any of their claimed SRs, and is usually better than the strategy Bins used. Oh, and
see
Fits was on Bins top TRs too, alongside ME. :lol:

But now I'm considering our options
if
: Lynch Mafia!Fitz, go into the night and have the SK shoot one Townie. We emerge as 3 and it is down to the 2 living Townies best judgement.

OR, we could No Lynch
anyone
and hope that the SK will shoot Fitz anyway, but who would Fitz shoot is the question. If he shoots a Townie it's the same result. If he shoots the SK, we win. If he doesn't shoot at all, he's screwed anyway but we come out as 4 tomorrow. Still, the SK could shoot a Townie instead and then we emerge as 2-1-1 tomorrow which
agrees
necessitates that we also No Lynch tomorrow, and hope that scum will cross kill.

OK, the second option is reliant
with
on Fitz actually having reads, which I very much doubt. It is also way too complicated
this
, but I thought I'd throw that out anyway.

I think I'm better off leaving this for the morning when my mind is
obviously
fresher. I think I may have overlooked something in my 2nd option (which we are less likely to follow anyway), so I probably will spot my
scummy

mistake when I reread what
idea
I just typed.
Don't believe me? Quote both original posts. I conveniently left 2 spaces on either side of every word I added.



And don't go all policy lynching on my ass either. WE ARE AT MYLO (at least, most likely). With a lynch, there is only 1 option of the 5 that results in town still being able to win tomorrow. Lynching SK gives us better odds of winning and lynching mafia removes the mylo position we are in. We need to get this lynch right or we face an extreme possibility of losing.

Almost is confirmed town to me now. If he was scum, he'd have hammered since there is an 80% chance this vote is mylo. If Fitz hasn't hammered by the time I finish this post, he also gains town cred from me, but I still consider it a possibility that he is the SK (since the SK has a lower chance of winning than the mafia). A lack of a hammer screams to me that either 1 or both of the scum are on my wagon already.

So can y'all unvote now and remove intent so we can think this Mylo through properly? Unless, of course, you are scum. In which case your best option is to remain on my wagon and hope that one of the other townies doesn't believe my reaction test claim.
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Post Post #696 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:10 am

Post by mutantdevle »

So for me personally:

Almost = Town
Fitz = Null
Elmo & N_M = FoS
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Post Post #697 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:03 am

Post by Almost50 »

What does "remove intent" even mean? I didn't put a time schedule.deadline to my intent anyway. I'm REALLY taking my time today.

But you haven't responded to my case on you being possibly the 3rd Mafia. I acknowledge your reaction test makes you look better, but can you explain why your ISO makes you look so heavily linked with Mafia?

P.S. I mainly wrote you off as Mafia because your vote on Bins came right after Chip's, and I maintain hat statistically it is more likely that one scum is on the bus and the other is off it, so for both to be on AND vote next to each other is even less likely.

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Post Post #698 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:13 am

Post by Elmo TeH AzN »

In post 695, mutantdevle wrote:So basically, I do not agree with no lynching, it's a fucking stupid idea. This was a reaction test to see if any scum would gain the confidence to support the idea and hence expose themselves.
This is the take away from your posts.

The excess quotes were just not needed
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Post Post #699 (ISO) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:04 pm

Post by mutantdevle »

In post 680, Almost50 wrote:1- He defended Bins early on in #66
2- He planted the seeds for Bins' fake claim fake claim in #108
3- Bins even acknowledged receipt of the idea in #113
4- He went on to defend the idea of letting the claimed SK live in #127 even after I had linked him with the game we almost lost for doing just that.
5- He admits Elmo is the one to refer to if we intended to meta read him in #46. and Elmo already voted him right after his "let the SK live" proposition (see #109)
6- Finally, his readlist is on #141 fits the profile of group scum with Bins in the Town leans and Chip in the Nulls.
In post 680, Almost50 wrote:Also, skimming over mutant's ISO once more I see he was SRing Sauce for being precisely the SK, so he might've shot Sauce last night,
1 - 66 was not the only time I defended bins. I thought she was town, obviously I was wrong. I was passively defending her up until the point of the cop claim.
2 & 3 - At this time I thought that the mafia switch that corresponded to their PR got to use the ability if the switch was off. Eg. if the vig switch was off then the town vig can't shoot but the mafia vig could perform a second kill. This misunderstanding was explained to me by math in post causing me to realise the SK is nowhere near as powerful as I originally thought. I don't accept that I was 'planting seeds' at either point though. Having someone claim SK is a good thing as we expose scum. By the time bins claimed, I had made it clear I no longer supported keeping a claimed SK alive. Bins was obviously desperate at that point and used my theory made in my misunderstanding as a last ditch attempt to stay alive.
4 - I did not consider your linked game as a valid example as you explained that roles were not revealed until a player's killer died, that added a lot more importance to lynching killers. Again, my opinion on this was not changed until 149.
5 - I would have thought that since I have had the most experience with Elmo out of everyone on this site so far then she would be able to give the most accurate meta read on me. Clearly my assumption was wrong since she instantly votes for me every time do something so much as slightly questionable (when she should know that that's the exact kind of thing she should know I'd do). It's almost as if she is trying to start up the easiest wagons?
6 - I don't really understand how. All I can say is that these were my genuine reads at the time.

7 - I don't remember specifically saying sauce was the SK but I definitely did scum read him. Again, I was wrong. I'm obviously going to deny killing him.
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