Open 704: Switch (Game Over)
- Chip Butty
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Chip Butty Mafia Scum
- Chip Butty
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I'm not going to say anything more in response to my largely absent d1. I've acknowledged it, if you can't move on, it's your problem. Even at the best of times, it's often d3 before i really start rolling, because before then it's mainly guesswork. We just happened to get lucky this game.
Since Math nailed scum and seemed to know what he was doing, I'm going to sheep him and vote the guy who is tunnelling me for sketchy reasons:
VOTE: Maxous- havingfitz
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havingfitz Survivor
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Brief check in...why the rush to lynch someone? The fact that two of the people on the Chip wagon were off the Bins wagon is too funny.
I'd probably lean towards voting Maxous but I'm not caught up and won't be until tomorrow.Town 57w-66l :: Not Town 29w-16l:: TBD 2
V/LA on weekends (i.e. RL > mafia)
The shortest GTKAS thread ever!- PenguinPower
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PenguinPower He/Him.peng
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Not_Mafia Smash Hit
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Intent to HammerAlso, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?- Chip Butty
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Chip Butty Mafia Scum
- Chip Butty
- Chip Butty
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Chip Butty Mafia Scum
- Chip Butty
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- Chip Butty
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Chip Butty Mafia Scum
- Chip Butty
- Not_Mafia
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Not_Mafia Smash Hit
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Who was momo?Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?- PenguinPower
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PenguinPower He/Him.peng
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PenguinPower He/Him.peng
- PenguinPower
He/Him- .peng
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Giving up on the town, he confesses and submits to the the town's mercy. They have none.
Chip Butty,Mafia Vigilante Switch, was lynched on Day 2!
Night 2 begins now. The deadline is Thursday, January 4, 2018, at 10:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-04 22:00:00).
Please make sure to PM me and Equinox any night actions, should you have any.
<(") | (")>- PenguinPower
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PenguinPower He/Him.peng
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He/Him- .peng
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- Not_Mafia
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Not_Mafia Smash Hit
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Who was momo?Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?- Almost50
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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Those are two very strange targets for the SK to have shot either!!
I'm most confident in Fitz being the 3rd Mafioso, but the SK certainly has me intrigued.
I'm not voting yet though as I want everyone to weigh in, and just in the off case I'm wrong and both last Mafia and he SK decide to join forces and screw us.
Modded 2 Opens & 2 Large Themed games successfully.- Almost50
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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I mean, Having wasn't voting either of the Scum flips. In fact he wasn't voting AT ALL. He also was heavily suspected by Mathdino which makes sense for Mafia to shoot Dino if they did. Finally, the readlist he posted had Bins as a top TR with Chip hidden in the TBD (that's what scum usually do when they post a readlist of only 3 categories, since they won't have trouble voting any of their claimed SRs, and is usually better than the strategy Bins used. Oh, and Fits was on Bins top TRs too, alongside ME.
But now I'm considering our options: Lynch Mafia!Fitz, go into the night and have the SK shoot one Townie. We emerge as 3 and it is down to the 2 living Townies best judgement.
OR, we could No Lynch and hope that the SK will shoot Fitz anyway, but who would Fitz shoot is the question. If he shoots a Townie it's the same result. If he shoots the SK, we win. If he doesn't shoot at all, he's screwed anyway but we come out as 4 tomorrow. Still, the SK could shoot a Townie instead and then we emerge as 2-1-1 tomorrow which necessitates that we also No Lynch tomorrow, and hope that scum will cross kill.
OK, the second option is reliant on Fitz actually having reads, which I very much doubt. It is also way too complicated, but I thought I'd throw that out anyway.
I think I'm better off leaving this for the morning when my mind is fresher. I think I may have overlooked something in my 2nd option (which we are less likely to follow anyway), so I probably will spot my mistake when I reread what I just typed.
Modded 2 Opens & 2 Large Themed games successfully.- Not_Mafia
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Not_Mafia Smash Hit
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I agree with lynching fitzAlso, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?- Almost50
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Almost50 Monkey Business
- Almost50
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Where the freak is Elmo/mutant/Fitz??
Modded 2 Opens & 2 Large Themed games successfully.- Elmo TeH AzN
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Elmo TeH AzN Jack of All Trades
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- havingfitz
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havingfitz Survivor
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I'm here. Not scum btw.In post 665, Almost50 wrote:Where the freak is Elmo/mutant/Fitz??
Will try to get a decent post up by tomorrow.Town 57w-66l :: Not Town 29w-16l:: TBD 2
V/LA on weekends (i.e. RL > mafia)
The shortest GTKAS thread ever!- mutantdevle
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Busy busy busy. Shall comment later.In post 665, Almost50 wrote:Where the freak is Elmo/mutant/Fitz??I mostly just lurk now.- mutantdevle
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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- havingfitz
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havingfitz Survivor
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In post 663, Almost50 wrote:OK, the second option is reliant on Fitz actually having reads, which I very much doubt.
Well I am town. There's read #1.
Read #2 is there is a 50% chance one of you is scum. Not bad odds.
Why am I scum again A50? VCA? I would do a better job of not looking as bad as I do in VCA if I had anything to hide. tyvm
In post 664, Not_Mafia wrote:I agree with lynching fitzTown 57w-66l :: Not Town 29w-16l:: TBD 2
V/LA on weekends (i.e. RL > mafia)
The shortest GTKAS thread ever!- mutantdevle
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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I'm assuming Sauce was the SK kill since I think a lot of us thought he was scummy (I certainly did). The SK should, in theory, be aiming for the mafia right now since our vig is useless due to the SK just being able to keep the switch off every night. If we lynch the SK then the vig is able to freely perform a kill tonight. If we don't lynch the SK today then there is a still a chance the SK could hit the mafioso so that doesn't matter too much (though obviously, the preference is Vig performing the shot).In post 663, Almost50 wrote:I mean, Having wasn't voting either of the Scum flips. In fact he wasn't voting this AT ALL. He also is was heavily suspected by Mathdino which makes a sense for Mafia to shoot Dino if they did. Finally, the readlist reaction he posted had Bins as a top TR with Chip hidden in the TBD (that's what scum usually do when they post a test readlist of only 3 categories, since they to won't have trouble voting any of their claimed SRs, and is usually better than the strategy Bins used. Oh, and see Fits was on Bins top TRs too, alongside ME.
But now I'm considering our options if : Lynch Mafia!Fitz, go into the night and have the SK shoot one Townie. We emerge as 3 and it is down to the 2 living Townies best judgement.
OR, we could No Lynch anyone and hope that the SK will shoot Fitz anyway, but who would Fitz shoot is the question. If he shoots a Townie it's the same result. If he shoots the SK, we win. If he doesn't shoot at all, he's screwed anyway but we come out as 4 tomorrow. Still, the SK could shoot a Townie instead and then we emerge as 2-1-1 tomorrow which agrees necessitates that we also No Lynch tomorrow, and hope that scum will cross kill.
OK, the second option is reliant with on Fitz actually having reads, which I very much doubt. It is also way too complicated this , but I thought I'd throw that out anyway.
I think I'm better off leaving this for the morning when my mind is obviously fresher. I think I may have overlooked something in my 2nd option (which we are less likely to follow anyway), so I probably will spot my scummy
mistake when I reread what idea I just typed.
There's 5 of us left. Since we all know out own alignments that's 4 people in our personal lynch pools. For us townies, that's a 50% chance of lynching scum. For scum, that's a 25% chance of getting each other. So odds are in our favour for now.
3v1v1.
No lynch + 1 NK = [2v1v1 (same position day 4)] / [3v1 (SKORMafia lose + strong town day 4)].
[1 lynch + 1 NK] / [no lynch + 2 NK] = [1v1v1 (town lose + SKORMafia win)] / [2v1 (SKORMafia lose + day 4 mylo)] / [Town instant win].
1 lynch + 2 NK = [1v1 (Mafia win OR scum draw)] / [Town Instant win].
So here's the deal, if we lynch today and there are 2 kills at night then we face a 50% chance of winning and a 50% of losing.
If we lynch today but there is only 1 kill at night OR we no lynch and there are 2 night kills then that gives us a 40% chance that scum win, 40% chance we get mylo day 4 and a 20% chance we win.
Finally, if we don't lynch and there is 1 kill then there is a 50% chance we are in the same position tomorrow (but with 1 less person in the lynch pool) and a 50% chance we are 1 less scum closer to victory.
So with that in mind, I think we should no lynch today. It maximises our chances of making it to tommorow where we will be in a stronger position as we have less people in the lynch pool.I mostly just lurk now.- Elmo TeH AzN
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Elmo TeH AzN Jack of All Trades
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Short answer. NoIn post 671, mutantdevle wrote:So with that in mind, I think we should no lynch today. It maximises our chances of making it to tommorow where we will be in a stronger position as we have less people in the lynch pool.
VOTE: mutantdevle for even thinking of a nO lynch
You do that and say the SK hits a town and so does scum
Your down to a 1-1-1 game where it's who played a better game the SK or mafia leaving it in the hands of a town player. Odds of that are 60% if I'm right.Stats not in the wiki. I'm That Crazy Panda.
I Speak Engrish Not English Leave My Grammar Alone.
Permanently V/LA- mutantdevle
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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- Not_Mafia
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Not_Mafia Smash Hit
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NoAlso, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play? - Not_Mafia
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- mutantdevle
- Elmo TeH AzN
- mutantdevle
- havingfitz
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- Almost50
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- Not_Mafia
- PenguinPower
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- Chip Butty
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- havingfitz
- Chip Butty