Open 704: Switch (Game Over)

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Post Post #700  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:09 pm

Vote Count 3.02mutantdevle (2) - Elmo TeH AzN, Not_Mafia

Not Voting (3) - Almost50, havingfitz, mutantdevle

With 5 votes, it will take 3 to reach majority.

The deadline is Thursday, January 18, 2018, at 10:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-18 22:00:00).
revise and resubmit

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Post Post #701  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:19 pm

@Everyone: Can we lynch Fitz first and see what the night brings us?

VOTE: Fitz

This is still where I'm most confident of flipping Scum. I still have mutant >> X, but I have some mild doubts now.

If Fitz is Mafia... fine. If he is the SK though, I think the Vig should holster maybe???
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Post Post #702  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:37 pm

In post 694, mutantdevle wrote:Fitz I swear to god if you hammer imma be so mad. Not at you, but at any town that allowed you to be in a position to hammer on Mylo (still writing my post).

The day is still young...I am very inactive during the weekend and throw in a blizzard that had me digging out from snow for a good part of Thursday and Friday and mafiascum is not getting a lot of my time. If we could wait until after the weekend to seriously consider voting people that would be nice.

mutant's posting since his wagon has built up has me thinking he is town. I'm town so A50 is really annoying the hell out of me. I can't really say who I suspect the most as I need to give the game (remaining players) a closer look. Which might not be until Monday.

How about no one vote for a few days to give people a chance to give the game a closer look and present legitimate reasons for suspicions? We have 12 days ffs.
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Post Post #703  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:37 pm

ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Post Post #704  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:12 pm

In post 701, Almost50 wrote:@Everyone: Can we lynch Fitz first and see what the night brings us?

VOTE: Fitz

This is still where I'm most confident of flipping Scum. I still have mutant >> X, but I have some mild doubts now.

If Fitz is Mafia... fine. If he is the SK though, I think the Vig should holster maybe???

I really don't think we should lynch Fitz first. If either Fitz or you were scum then either of you would have hammered me to meet your own win objectives. Scum would be stupid not to hammer me at MYLO as, if ANY townie gets lynched, then the results of the night kills settle whether the SK or Mafia wins from there. This means that both scum MUST be on my wagon already otherwise there would have been a hammer. Notice how neither of them has unvoted? It's because they know if they keep their votes there then that means is a chance either you or Fitz will hammer me. They know this is MYLO, they know that more thought should be going into this final vote. Yet neither of them seem to be taking any cautions.

We need to lynch either Elmo or N_M. My gut says Elmo.
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Post Post #705  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:12 pm

@mutant: Perhaps you haven't been paying attention, but I said I KNOW who the VIG is. I was pushing you and/or fitz, so it goes w/o saying the Vig is not either of you. The Vig is in Me/N_M/Elmo.

As for scum not hammering, I think that would have been a scum claim for the exact same reasons you mentioned. So, while you think it's stupid for scum not to have hammered you I'd say it was smart play and should not be the sole reason why you TR me/fitz.

Now if I was a spectator watching the game from the outside I'd certainly rule out that guy called A50 as Mafia, but I would have no reason to rule them out as the SK based on VCA alone. You need to take a closer look at some of my content to realize I can't be the SK either.

The reason I'm not outing the Vig explciitly yet is that if we lynch either scum today and the other fails to shoot the Vig we would have a 3-player LyLo tomorrow with a CONFIRMED Townie.

Suffice it to say, DISREGARD you nor being hammered, and reevaluate your reads based on other things not related to the VCA.

Ftr, your posts of late seem Townie enough, BUT knowing what I know I cannot exclude the possibility of you being sly scum who is trying to drive the lynch unto Town and thus winning the game at night. Like, if you were the SK and were immune to the Mafia kill you would certainly want to lynch townie today, shoot the Mafia at night and hope they shoot someone else and that would be it for you.
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Post Post #706  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:37 pm

How could you possibly know who the vig is?
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Post Post #707  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:12 pm

In post 706, mutantdevle wrote:How could you possibly know who the vig is?

NKA Its looking like.
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Post Post #708  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:40 pm

In post 706, mutantdevle wrote:How could you possibly know who the vig is?


Does it really matter to you?!!
Records: W/L
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Post Post #709  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:50 pm

Who was momo?
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Post Post #710  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:59 pm

I think it was Maxous, but don't quote me on that.
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Post Post #711  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:42 am

Here. Looking over D3 and doing some ISOs.

Meanwhile...I'd appreciate it ifA50 would unvote me and refrain from hammering mutant.
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Post Post #712  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:20 pm

Catching up from D3.

@A50, wrt to ...why do you only discuss the two nightkills as strange for the SK to have shot and not mention the vig or the last mafia's likelihood of shooting Sauce or Maxous? Do either of the NK's make sense for mafia?

@A50, wrt to :
- After Dino's guilty on Bins I voted Bins for a time but as her lynch was inevitable I didn't see a reason to cut the day short so I unvoted her. Pre-guilty I thought Bins was town. I usually do town read her >:/
- Dino was most likely shot for being the cop...not because I was one of the players he suspected. And if you look at his reads...other than his guilty on Bins his suspicions towards Raya and Sauce (and me) were wrong. I do not think his reads were what got him killed.
- In my defense I was being voted by Chip Butty all of D1 aside from his move to Bins post-guilty. Not sure if Chip is a fan of bussing but I am not...neither giving or receiving.
- Also...and lol....do you think as mafia I would have killed either of the N2 nk's in favor of town!A50? Let your large ego digest that.

@not_mafia, wrt to ...why do you agree with lynching me?

@mutant, wrt to ...I like the effort in your post...but all the different possibilities make my head hurt. Basically I think whether we no lynch today...lynch anti-town, or mislynch...town still has a chance depending on what shots are taken tonight. Ideally I think lynching the SK today would be in the best option for town.

@A50, wrt to ...you say without reservation that mutant and I are, in some order, the sk and last mafia. 1) you are wrong. I am town. 2) why are you clearing not_mafia and Elmo from consideration? If there is something that could help clear them in my mind I would love hearing it. Lastly...you close out this post convincing yourself I am the 3rd mafia (I'm not). So if you have convinced yourself of this...why are you voting me over mutant who by POE you must think is the sk?

Elmo's is pathetic. Her isn't much better. It looks like posting stuff to appear engaged but just happy attention is elsewhere. So I repeat...why is Elmo not under consideration by you A50? Feel free to answer as well not_mafia.

mutant's is really good. Makes me feel confident in what he is saying. The bread-crumbing of the react ion test was nicely done. WTH is he being wagonned up today? smh...

@A50, wrt to ...you say that "statistically it is more likely that one scum is on the {Bins} bus and the other is off it"...which would apply to Elmo and not_mafia. aka your town reads. Did I mention WTF?

@A50, wrt to ...no...let's not lynch fitz. The night that will result in is a 2v1v1 night. Not the end of the world for town is sk and mafia cross fire....but not as good as 3v1 either.

@A50, wrt to ...this looks a lot like rolefishing imo. And there is no way anyone who is not the vig could know who the vig is. And based on your read on me I think it's even less likely that you are correct in guessing who the vig is. Since a guess is all you could be working with.

Going to do a few ISO's but pre-ISO...here is where my reads stand:

Town - mutant
Scum - Elmo
coin-flip - A50 and not_mafia

While I go do ISO's I'd love to hear anyone substantiate their scum or town reads on Elmo, not_mafia and/or A50.
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Post Post #713  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:28 pm

So your scumreading the 3 people on the mutant wagon. And you make it seem like mutant is a mislynch. Hmmm....... Let's think about this for a second...
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Post Post #714  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:02 pm

In post 713, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:So your scumreading the 3 people on the mutant wagon. And you make it seem like mutant is a mislynch. Hmmm....... Let's think about this for a second...

What are you getting at? And there aren't three on the mutant wagon fyi.

Smh....
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Post Post #715  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:44 pm

In post 714, havingfitz wrote:
In post 713, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:So your scumreading the 3 people on the mutant wagon. And you make it seem like mutant is a mislynch. Hmmm....... Let's think about this for a second...

What are you getting at? And there aren't three on the mutant wagon fyi.

Smh....

Ones claimed intent to hammer. The other two are on the wagon. Hence 3.
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Post Post #716  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:46 pm

In post 708, Almost50 wrote:
In post 706, mutantdevle wrote:How could you possibly know who the vig is?


Does it really matter to you?!!

Well if you are expecting me to blindly follow your wagon on Fitz then yes. If you are going to make a well-reasoned argument against Fitz that convinces me to vote for him, then obviously I don't need to know. But if you are telling me to vote Fitz based on the fact that there is a vig in Elmo / N_M then I'm not going to follow that unless I also know who the vig is; or at the very least I want concrete evidence you know who the vig is.

For now though, based on my logic that scum should have hammered, I am looking to vote within Elmo / N_M. If either of them is the vig then they can just role claim if they have to.
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Post Post #717  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:48 pm

Why would scum quickhammer?
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Post Post #718  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:48 pm

It's Mutant and Elmo
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Post Post #719  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:53 pm

In post 718, Not_Mafia wrote:It's Mutant and Elmo

Why? You keep throwing out unsubstantiated reads.
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Post Post #720  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:56 pm

Stomp/Attract/Milk Drink/Rollout

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Post Post #721  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:58 pm

In post 706, mutantdevle wrote:How could you possibly know who the vig is?

Assuming you mean "Night Kill Analysis", I don't exactly see how. We only know for certain that the vig has one kill, but it could be more. How do we know the vig didn't choose the same target as scum on a certain day or perhaps the scum chose the same target to kill? Even on the day with 3 kills it's going to be damn hard to distinguish between who killed who. For all we know, the kills that Almost would have attributed to a single person to believe they are the vig could actually belong to the serial killer. I really don't see a situation where Almost could accurately get an idea of who the vig is from night kill analysis, or from anything at all for that matter. Unless, of course, there is an obvious crumb that I am missing.

In post 713, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:And you make it seem like mutant is a mislynch. Hmmm....... Let's think about this for a second...

Fitz never specifically says that I'm a mislynch?

Also, this comment would suggest you don't think I'm a mislynch (would certainly explain the lack of an unvote). So that must mean you scum read me, why? I'm under the impression your only reason for voting for me was the no lynch suggestion; now that I've stated it was a reaction test, why are you still voting? Finally, if you really do think I am scum, why aren't you tunnelling me? This is MYLO. Now is the time to push your reads more than ever.
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Post Post #722  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:06 pm

In post 717, Not_Mafia wrote:Why would scum quickhammer?

By doing so, they have practically won. This is the case for both scum. Whichever one it is that wins the game is decided by the night kills. The only real chance we have of being in a position where we can still win tomorrow is if one of the scum is killed today. That's the only reason scum wouldn't hammer is if they thought the person being hammered was scum themselves. Because that means they'd have to think about tomorrow.

Now you may say that because the night kills solve which of the 2 scum win that means neither scum would want to hammer as they'd look too obvious. But before I revealed my stance on a no lynch was a reaction test it would have been perfectly reasonable for anyone to hammer me and hence go under the radar as scum.
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Post Post #723  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:11 pm

In post 721, mutantdevle wrote:This is MYLO.

Its not I think your the SK and I believe you have NK immunity. I know your style it comes across town.
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Post Post #724  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:17 pm

In post 723, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:
In post 721, mutantdevle wrote:This is MYLO.

Its not I think your the SK and I believe you have NK immunity. I know your style it comes across town.

Hold on, let me do some maths. I'm fairly certain this is MYLO though (in most situations).
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