Open 704: Switch (Game Over)

havingfitz
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Post Post #725  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:37 pm

Elmo ISO first...

First 6 posts...nothing significant IMO worth mentioning.

- votes not_mafia and shades Sauce a bit. not_mafia vote looks to be a pressure vote. Not sure why a pressure vote is better than a vote on Sauce for whatever reasons she wasn't feeling "too hot" about him. Unless it was strictly a joking comment.

- votes mutant for espousing the pro's to leaving the SK alive. Can't really argue against this vote.

- makes a good catch wrt the SK having nk immunity. Something I could see mafia being fully aware of and an SK not seeing any reason to comment on.

- Elmo voting Chip (2nd vote on wagon) and sticking with it makes me doubt that she is mafia. I do not see mafia going out of their way to initiate a wagon on their vig switch who got very little attention (if any) day 1. Unless Maxous had some really killer case on Chip...I think odds favor the 3rd mafia being not_mafia or mutant and the SK being A50 or Elmo (despite the dumbtelling Elmo has been doing wrt the SK role).

- votes mutant for mutant's no lynch suggestion (aka reaction test).

@mutant....what was the outcome of your reaction test? Who passed and who failed. And if there was a fail...why no vote?

You keep mentioning me Elmo....do you have a case on me?

Elmo's last several posts don't really do anything AI for me.

Summary...I was AFK most of D2 it seems and I do not know what the case on Chip was. That said...I can't see mafia going out of their way to whittle down their numbers to ONE and lose any hope of impacting the Vig's ability to get a shot off. I can't see scum bussing Chip. SK maybe...but not the last mafia.

So I do not like Elmo's game to this point (kind of the norm iirc) and I think Elmo is more likely to be the SK than the 3rd mafia.
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Post Post #726  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:51 pm

Vote Count 3.03mutantdevle (2) - Elmo TeH AzN, Not_Mafia
havingfitz (1) - Almost50

Not Voting (2) - havingfitz, mutantdevle

With 5 votes, it will take 3 to reach majority.

The deadline is Thursday, January 18, 2018, at 10:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-18 22:00:00).

Moderator CommentsPlease reserve questions about momo until the end of the game. The issue has already been resolved. Thank you.
revise and resubmit

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Post Post #727  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:29 pm

In post 664, Not_Mafia wrote:I agree with lynching fitz

In post 718, Not_Mafia wrote:It's Mutant and Elmo

What changed? Assuming you no longer want to support a mislynch on me?
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Post Post #728  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:33 pm

I changed my mind
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Post Post #729  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:39 pm

Assuming we lynch town:

If the scum kill each other, we win.
If the scum shoot 2 different townies, the scum draw.
If the scum shoots the same townie then it will be 1v1v1 and the townie decides who wins tomorrow.
If the Mafia shoots a mafia-immune SK whilst the SK shoots a townie then it will also be 1v1v1 for the townie decides who wins tomorrow.
If the SK shoots the mafia and the mafia shoots a townie then that results in 2v1 for the next day.
If the mafia shoots the SK and they are not immune as well as the SK shoots a townie then that also results in a 2v1 for the next day.

So in 4/6 cases the game is over if we lynch town. 66% MYLO is too damn high for us to just take this lynch casually.
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Post Post #730  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:45 pm

In post 725, havingfitz wrote:@mutant....what was the outcome of your reaction test? Who passed and who failed. And if there was a fail...why no vote?

Almost: Reaction to it seems scummy, lack of vote seems town.
N_M: Null.
Elmo: Reaction seems scummy.
Fitz: Sadly I had to reveal it was a reaction test before you voted but your lack of vote seems town.


It makes me uncomfortable that I struggle to read joke posters like N_M.
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Post Post #731  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:46 pm

Get Elmo to L-1 and I'll hammer
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Post Post #732  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:56 pm

I'm not so sure I want anyone at L-1 tbh. I get too paranoid of scum hammers during the late game. Tbh, I get paranoid in general during late game.
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Post Post #733  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:11 pm

Translation: Mutant is Mafia immune Sk
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Post Post #734  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:33 pm

In post 733, Not_Mafia wrote:Translation: Mutant is Mafia immune Sk

What do I say that implies that?
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Post Post #735  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:36 pm

In post 733, Not_Mafia wrote:Translation: Mutant is Mafia immune Sk

You think Elmo unnecessarily bussed her last partner?
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Post Post #736  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:04 pm

In post 712, havingfitz wrote:@A50, wrt to post 662...why do you only discuss the two nightkills as strange for the SK to have shot and not mention the vig or the last mafia's likelihood of shooting Sauce or Maxous? Do either of the NK's make sense for mafia?


I went into the night with a strong lean on YOU being the 3rd Mafia. The SK should've been either looking for the 3rd Mafia. or shooting the Towniest players (depending on them being immune Vig or Mafia shots). That's why the kills felt weird for the SK, because they certainly weren't the Towniest and IMHO not likely Mafia either.

As for Mafia, they would want to shoot anyone now. They probably were hunting for the SK as a priority, so maybe they made more sense from their point of view.

With the Mafia Vig switch lynched on D2 I don't see how you would/should consider a Vig kill at all. The SK now has total control on the switch and is turning our Vig into a VT indefinitely, wouldn't you agree?
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Post Post #737  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:08 pm

In post 712, havingfitz wrote:- Also...and lol....do you think as mafia I would have killed either of the N2 nk's in favor of town!A50? Let your large ego digest that.


As Mafia you wouldn't be concerned with me as much as you would be with either the SK or the Vig. In other words, would expect Scum!You to be hunting for the SK (as the first option) and the Vig (as the second, bc if the SK is dead the Vig regains their shot).
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Post Post #738  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:11 pm

In post 712, havingfitz wrote:So if you have convinced yourself of this...why are you voting me over mutant who by POE you must think is the sk?


If you look at my opening post of the day I was more confident in you flipping scum anyway. The mutant case came later, but as he posted he managed to plant some grains of doubt in my mind (of him being scum). I am going for my most confident SR bc we HAVE TO lynch sum today or we lose the game.
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Post Post #739  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:17 pm

In post 712, havingfitz wrote:@A50, wrt to post 697...you say that "statistically it is more likely that one scum is on the {Bins} bus and the other is off it"...which would apply to Elmo and not_mafia. aka your town reads. Did I mention WTF?


I accept the argument regarding Wlmo (being off the Bins wagon), but N_M was ON the wagon!!!! (also mutant was on it).

The difference between you and Elmo is Elmo was on Chip's wagon and you were not. There was not a guilty on Chip and the Mafia had already lost a member so it's less likely for them to bus on D2.

On D2 only you and mutant were not voting, so it's more likely one of you is the 3rd Mafia and the other is the SK, and both are trying to avoid pissing off the other.
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Post Post #740  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:21 pm

In post 712, havingfitz wrote:@A50, wrt to post 705...this looks a lot like rolefishing imo. And there is no way anyone who is not the vig could know who the vig is. And based on your read on me I think it's even less likely that you are correct in guessing who the vig is. Since a guess is all you could be working with.


In fact, you indirect exclamation here IS the definition of rolefishing, and that's as far as I will say about the matter.
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Post Post #741  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:27 pm

@mutant: I did present my case on fitz already. It's up to you to decide whether it convinces you.

Ftr, if you are the SK AND you are immune to Mafia kills it is certainly in your best interest that we lynch a Townie today. If that is the case you simply can't die at night. Furthermore, it would be best for you to out the Vig so you could shoot them tonight and get rid of the last conf!Town alive. You could come tomorrow and say you changed your mind about X's alignment and accuse them of being Mafia or even SK for the win.

P.S. In order to catch Scum you gotta THINK LIKE SCUM. ;)
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Post Post #742  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:33 pm

In post 721, mutantdevle wrote:Assuming you mean "Night Kill Analysis", I don't exactly see how. We only know for certain that the vig has one kill, but it could be more. How do we know the vig didn't choose the same target as scum on a certain day or perhaps the scum chose the same target to kill?


On N1 we had 3 flips, so OBVIOUSLY the Vig shot did go through. If we only had 2 I would have assumed the Vig shot didn't go through either.

On N2, not only did we have only 2 flips, but more importantly we KNOW that the Vig switch is 100% controlled by ONLY ONE PERSON. Why would the SK let the Vig shoot? Even if they're immune to the Vig shot that would blow their cover as there is no Doc. Or are you telling me you did let the Vig shoot?? :P
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Post Post #743  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:34 pm

In post 721, mutantdevle wrote:I really don't see a situation where Almost could accurately get an idea of who the vig is from night kill analysis


I'll tell you (and fitz) post-game ;)
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Post Post #744  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:36 pm

@fitz/mutant: Why are you two so afamant in fishing for the Vig? I mean, that's one more point in the other 2 players' favour.

And why are you two automatically ruling out the possibility that >I< am the Vig (thus -obviously- know who "the Vig" is)???? Amuse me.
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Post Post #745  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:37 pm

In post 735, havingfitz wrote:
In post 733, Not_Mafia wrote:Translation: Mutant is Mafia immune Sk

You think Elmo unnecessarily bussed her last partner?


Okay you're the mafia then
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Post Post #746  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:38 pm

In post 742, Almost50 wrote:
In post 721, mutantdevle wrote:Assuming you mean "Night Kill Analysis", I don't exactly see how. We only know for certain that the vig has one kill, but it could be more. How do we know the vig didn't choose the same target as scum on a certain day or perhaps the scum chose the same target to kill?


On N1 we had 3 flips, so OBVIOUSLY the Vig shot did go through. If we only had 2 I would have assumed the Vig shot didn't go through either.

On N2, not only did we have only 2 flips, but more importantly we KNOW that the Vig switch is 100% controlled by ONLY ONE PERSON. Why would the SK let the Vig shoot? Even if they're immune to the Vig shot that would blow their cover as there is no Doc. Or are you telling me you did let the Vig shoot?? :P

If I'm honest, I haven't really been paying the most attention this game. The 2 things that entice me to pay attention to a game are my role and the setup of the game. Neither of which I find particularly interesting. I remember there being 3 kills and I remember that bins was the vig switch but since I haven't been thinking about this game all too much I failed to put 2 and 2 together when I wrote that post. For some reason, I thought the 3 deaths night was night 2 even though ofc if I put more than 10 seconds though into then it obviously wasn't. My lack of attention is also why I missed your case on Fitz which I have only just properly noticed (thoughts on that next post).
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Post Post #747  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:52 pm

Intent to hammer mutant

is trying TOO HAD to force "town slips". First; Bins wasn't the Vig switch. Chip was. Second, filing to put 2+2 together while acknowledging you saw the Vig switch is just flain dumb. Third; you claim "lack of attention" while you also set a "reaction test"?? And missed my case on Fitz which was literally the 3rd post of the day (by all players collectively)??

Finally, you say both your role and the setup are uninteresting, and that you haven't been paying attention, while you happen to be the player with highest post count???? (I only realized that while I was checking if my case on fitz was the 3rd or 4th post of the day).
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Post Post #748  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:54 pm

In post 680, Almost50 wrote:Also, skimming over mutant's ISO once more I see he was SRing Sauce for being precisely the SK, so he might've shot Sauce last night, while Fitz shot Maxous? If that's the case then Fitz' readlist at the bottom of #204 atill makes sense. He TR'd Bins and mutant, thus didn't vite Bins and haven't shot mutant. The problem is he didn't bother voting Bins after she claimed SK but I guess it could be bc he thought that may draw the Mafia attention to him being the SK.

He had Maxous in his scum pile, and Max was the only one alive last night from that pile for him to shoot.

Further down his ISO his #240 was a strong FoS of Lalendra, so it makes sense he shot her after Math claimed Cop and Raya was very much cleared of being Bins' p.

Moving on with the assumption Fitz is the SK, in #412 (bottom 3rd) he's fiddling with the idea of letting Bins live. I could explain this in many ways, like maybe he wanted a guaranteed target? Or maybe he wasn't going to shoot her and thus would be guaranteed she gets lynched the next day? Or maybe he just didn't want her to flip this early so we would keep thinking she might be the SK?

Fitz does vote Bins though in #446 with the quote "Hopefully she's mafia". Shortly after he unvotes her in #458

Alright check #651 for yourselves. This is the guy who shot Maxous for sure. That post though suggests he's the 3rd Mafia, but what do I know?

I have 2 problems with your case. First of all, it feels more like that you WANT him to be scum since you flip-flop on him being mafia / SK; that's not too bad though. My main problem is that you assume the SK will always go after their scum reads. I'm not sure if the meta behind that is different on this site, but from my experience, the SK tends to target who threatens them rather than who they scum read. And there is a huge difference. I've also noticed that SK's a more likely to lie about their reads. They tend to keep their real scum reads in their null pile so they can kill without suspicion and scum read the players that are more likely to be lynched.

You criticise Fitz for fiddling with the idea of letting bins live but you forget that N_M also did that (just in a more mafia rather than SK kind of way).

In general, this is a decent case. But there's nothing compelling IMO. I'd be willing to lynch Fitz if time was running low but I'd much rather be lynching within Elmo / N_M (and ideally with your's and Fitz's support as I really don't trust the other 2).
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Post Post #749  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:58 pm

In post 747, Almost50 wrote:Intent to hammer mutant

is trying TOO HAD to force "town slips". First; Bins wasn't the Vig switch. Chip was. Second, filing to put 2+2 together while acknowledging you saw the Vig switch is just flain dumb. Third; you claim "lack of attention" while you also set a "reaction test"?? And missed my case on Fitz which was literally the 3rd post of the day (by all players collectively)??

Finally, you say both your role and the setup are uninteresting, and that you haven't been paying attention, while you happen to be the player with highest post count???? (I only realized that while I was checking if my case on fitz was the 3rd or 4th post of the day).

So this whole intent thing is you saying you don't believe my 'lack of attention' claim?

Well to that I simply say, check my meta. You'll find that I am A LOT more active and usually a lot more sure of my reads. I haven't even tunnelled anyone this game which is surprising for me. Honestly, this is what is considered not very attentive by my standards.
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