Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

[manrock]

hey ufo

[sheepsaysmeep]

ugh
next pagetop is mine

[Mathdino]

1. What content? apparently the best idea in this setup is too randomly lynch, so what am I supposed to talk about? "Oh random lynch a is better than random lynch b for no absolute reason"

hahahaha nothing means anything

You should read the Sad Existential Spiraling Depression thread in the Speakeasy when you get the chance. It basically sums up this game for me!

[DiamondSentinel]

How about this. Let’s lynch MathDino, and if they turn out to be town, we can random Lynch tomorrow.

[RedFlavor]

I dont really think that mathdino is scum because he was right when he told there were too many town losses and expected winrate is higher when you roll the dice, a scum would not do that

Also why are you suggesting to lynch him

[DiamondSentinel]

I dont really think that mathdino is scum because he was right when he told there were too many town losses and expected winrate is higher when you roll the dice, a scum would not do that

Also why are you suggesting to lynch him

I’m suggesting that he’s scum because he’s scummy.

[sheepsaysmeep]

the case against him is incredibly reachy, im tring him atm

[sheepsaysmeep]

How about this. Let’s lynch MathDino, and if they turn out to be town, we can random Lynch tomorrow.

this is bullshit
only one random lynch has low chance of hitting scum

[DiamondSentinel]

How about this. Let’s lynch MathDino, and if they turn out to be town, we can random Lynch tomorrow.

this is bullshit
only one random lynch has low chance of hitting scum

But the probability of hitting scum with MathDino is exactly the same as if we lynch randomly.

[Mathdino]

But the probability of hitting scum with MathDino is exactly the same as if we lynch randomly.

Incorrect. I'm speaking as if I don't know my own alignment right now (imagine me being an IC in a newbie game): Supposing I got lynched, based on the data, the very fact that town was able to lynch me non-randomly makes it insanely more likely that I'm town, as almost all purposeful lynches in this setup are on town.

I would be okay if my townreads rolled the dice and decided to lynch me. I would obviously not support that with my vote because I know my alignment, but the chance of getting dicerolled into a self lynch is a chance I have to take in order to implement optimal strategy.

Basically I'm against purposeful lynches and I'm in favour of arbitrary ones. If you had said "Let's lynch [this specific player that I'm scumreading] and then random lynch tomorrow" I'd be equally uncomfortable with that. Because again, the very fact that we're able to come to a lynch on someone makes it more likely that player is town.

[Mathdino]

How about this. Let’s lynch MathDino, and if they turn out to be town, we can random Lynch tomorrow.

this is bullshit
only one random lynch has low chance of hitting scum

This is also correct.

I could crunch the numbers on our winrate if we made a purposeful D1 lynch and then an arbitrary one tomorrow (such as one decided by the team we lynch today). I'd expect the winrate to be around 50%, but I'm not sure.

[Kop]

I'm lover with Bigfinn. Sorry been tied up with work and new years antics, will read through properly tomorrow.

[DiamondSentinel]

How about this. Let’s lynch MathDino, and if they turn out to be town, we can random Lynch tomorrow.

this is bullshit
only one random lynch has low chance of hitting scum

This is also correct.

I could crunch the numbers on our winrate if we made a purposeful D1 lynch and then an arbitrary one tomorrow (such as one decided by the team we lynch today). I'd expect the winrate to be around 50%, but I'm not sure.

Winrate around 50%. Well that’s fine.

Now shut the fuck up about random lynching and actually play the game. If you want to rando-lynch, go to fucking Vegas.

[Mathdino]

Winrate around 50%. Well that’s fine.

Alright, so based on game history, 2/12 of purposeful (non-arbitrary) D1 lynches were on scum. 10/12 were on town. So if we purposefully lynch D1 and then random lynch D2, scum has a
~10/12 * 6/10 = ~5/6 * 3/5 = ~1/2 = ~50% chance of winning.

Huh I guessed exactly right. That's cool.

Now shut the fuck up about random lynching and actually play the game. If you want to rando-lynch, go to fucking Vegas.

Okay rude. I've been playing the game by talking to people. I've even provided reads as asked. I'm playing my way by sheeping someone I consider trustworthy, which I consider equivalent to a random lynch.

I'd actually be cool with a policy lynch on this. Pretty sure policy lynches are effectively arbitrary.

What's funny is I'm also the only one here who has given actual reads on people that aren't on me. So the misrep is, yknow, appreciated.

[Lalendra]

I'm playing my way by sheeping someone I consider trustworthy, which I consider equivalent to a random lynch.

Except it's not at all random. That person is choosing a lynch target, and while it could be random TO YOU, because you aren't involved in the process of choosing, it is not at all random and quite subjective to that person. So this is going directly against what you've been suggesting all game.

[Mathdino]

I'm playing my way by sheeping someone I consider trustworthy, which I consider equivalent to a random lynch.

Except it's not at all random. That person is choosing a lynch target, and while it could be random TO YOU, because you aren't involved in the process of choosing, it is not at all random and quite subjective to that person. So this is going directly against what you've been suggesting all game.

Hey dude if 6 other players are willing to random lynch based on a dice roll, I'd go for that. But they're not, and coming up with a lynch that's random TO ME is the Poor Man's Version. I can just hope that they're not in some way unduly influenced by scum.

The fact that no one else seems to be wanting to join the awesome/arbitrary wagon on your team if anything indicates to me that it's probably actually on scum. If someone from literally every team had hopped on by now, I'd start to get suspicious because I'd start to think that the lynch was in fact not random and was supported by scum.

That tell is of course null now that I've actually said it, so everyone jumping on after this post wouldn't actually change my mind at all.

[Mathdino]

Oh yeah and I coded the setup.
Modeled as 6 players, 2 random mafia, and 2 random lynches. Town wins if one lynch is on mafia. Loops 1000 times. The winrate hovers around 600.

I can do the same thing for the hypothetical narrative in which we randomly select someone as a townie to roll 2 lynches on anyone other than them, but I think you guys get the point by now.
The theoretical winrate in that scenario would be 70%, assuming we select a townie.

[Lalendra]

Hey dude if 6 other players are willing to random lynch based on a dice roll, I'd go for that. But they're not, and coming up with a lynch that's random TO ME is the Poor Man's Version. I can just hope that they're not in some way unduly influenced by scum.

The fact that no one else seems to be wanting to join the awesome/arbitrary wagon on your team if anything indicates to me that it's probably actually on scum. If someone from literally every team had hopped on by now, I'd start to get suspicious because I'd start to think that the lynch was in fact not random and was supported by scum.

That tell is of course null now that I've actually said it, so everyone jumping on after this post wouldn't actually change my mind at all.

Okay, point taken about the quasi-random sheep vote.
I think, however, that the reason the wagon isn't building is more due to the fact that there haven't really been any concrete reasons laid out, and/or the fact that others are not on board with the random lynch option, as you said. I don't have a problem with sheeping a townread, I do it frequently; I just don't have anyone yet in this game that I feel comfortable enough sheeping, so I am trying to form my own reads.

Oh yeah and I coded the setup.
Modeled as 6 players, 2 random mafia, and 2 random lynches. Town wins if one lynch is on mafia. Loops 1000 times. The winrate hovers around 600.

I can do the same thing for the hypothetical narrative in which we randomly select someone as a townie to roll 2 lynches on anyone other than them, but I think you guys get the point by now.
The theoretical winrate in that scenario would be 70%, assuming we select a townie.

Not going to lie, whether you're town or scum, your math and coding skills are intimidating. Like I really hope you're town because I would not want to deal with you as scum, and maybe that's part of what makes me so leery.

[Toranaga]

hey ufo

hey zara

don't think our mutual friend is playing lol

I read one post in this page as wolfy, guess which

also off to bed be back tomorrow with solving things

[sheepsaysmeep]

im hard tr'ing mathdino

[DiamondSentinel]

im hard tr'ing mathdino

Naturally you’d TR someone in your randolynch circlejerk

[Sky_Paladin]

@Math

OK, I accept your math that says random lynching returns a higher win rate. It is a viable strategy.

Did you discuss this strat with your buddy, Amra (iirc?) they have yet to post in here their thoughts. Or at all.

My thoughts are that town supposedly has a higher winrate via scumhunting. You cited that 'scum were just terrible' or am I misappropriating the situation.

I could abide by a random vote except I would then immediately replace out because there's no point playing and I expect others might do the same.

Even if this strat is optimal, is it something you truly wish to enforce?

@Diamond People can legitimately be switched off by your attitude in 137 and could easily have provoked sheep's 144. It's not AI. A quick ISO of sheep shows that they're mostly non-committal about the dice rolling thing anyway.

[Mathdino]

Did you discuss this strat with your buddy, Amra (iirc?) they have yet to post in here their thoughts. Or at all.

My thoughts are that town supposedly has a higher winrate via scumhunting. You cited that 'scum were just terrible' or am I misappropriating the situation.

I could abide by a random vote except I would then immediately replace out because there's no point playing and I expect others might do the same.

Even if this strat is optimal, is it something you truly wish to enforce?

@Diamond People can legitimately be switched off by your attitude in 137 and could easily have provoked sheep's 144. It's not AI. A quick ISO of sheep shows that they're mostly non-committal about the dice rolling thing anyway.

1. No, I replaced in after the topics were closed. All Amrorachurrolola said in the PT was "Hello". Also if you ISO me you'll see that I didn't support this out the gate; I quickreplaced in and then did the research over the course of the first couple pages.

2. I look at the setup history and note that with the exception of the very last time this setup was run, town hasn't won since scum in general figured out how to properly play this setup. I attribute town's win last time to scum playing like shit and not realising how to play this. I'm not gonna go that far into how I believe scum should optimally play this setup for fairly obvious reasons. But the point is that I think towns really only win when scum makes themselves lynchable.

The only other game where town won on the first lynch was in 2009 when Mastin had internet issues and practically got herself policy lynched (her playstyle was shit back then).

3. I want to win and so I'll go with the most random(ish) option possible from my perspective.

I believe scumhunting is near impossible in this setup, but I actually do have some faith in townhunting. My contribution is that I believe sheep/Tora are town and Red/whoever his partner is are also probably town. As such I'll arbitrarily lynch any of the remaining teams.

I recognise right now that most people on the playerlist aren't willing to dicelynch, and I'm okay with that, but doing an effective equivalent is the best strategy available to me personally.

[Sky_Paladin]

1, 2: Ok, that seems legit. I can't account for you pushing the dice strat all on your own and getting basically no traction from others if you were in a scum grouping. Until now I don't think anybody has really gone for it.

UNVOTE: Dino

So with that, I'm probably townsorting yourself and Amra.

For 3, I think I'll agree to disagree for now re: scumhunting is impossible and see how it shakes out later in the phase.

Could you please break down for me why you're tr Sheep/Tora, as far as I can see:
Sheep - a bunch of trivial townreads, including a reversed read on Diamond and yourself in the space of a few hours, mainly pagetop empty spam posts, and meta-type posts (posting relationship chart, dice psuedo vote).
Tora - No real...posts? The samurai avatar does make me want to inherently trust it.

The most thing this slot seems to have is a townread on your slot.

I'm mainly interested in why you are townreading this slot and if there's something I've missed.

[DiamondSentinel]

My apologies. When I sent that, I was standing in line to check luggage that had taken an hour to get 5 people and was so slow I nearly missed my plane. So naturally I'd be a bit on edge.

My point still stands. Rando-lynching is a crappy idea, and regardless of whether or not I SR Math, I would have still pushed for his PL