Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over


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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:18 pm

Post by sheepsaysmeep »

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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:19 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 74, sheepsaysmeep wrote:tone is ai
absolute bullshit especially for my playstyle but i can appreciate trying to early-read people based off tone
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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 73, Mathdino wrote:Edit: Long deadlines/long conversations hurt town. I have EXTREMELY little confidence in my scumhunting abilities in this setup in particular. Ask me why if you're interested.
I'm sad you didn't bite because I wanted to talk about this. So I'm gonna nonconsensually rant at you. sorrynotsorry

Mafia is a game of informed minority vs uninformed majority. Tone reading is bullshit except for coming up with early reads to talk about. There are 2 things that set town apart from scum:

1. Town doesn't have scumpartners. Scum does. Scum will act in some deliberate way toward their partners, be that defending, distancing, ignoring or bussing.
2. Town is only interested in lynching scum. Scum doesn't really give a shit who they lynch as long as at least one of them stays alive.

There's a setup called Friends and Enemies I played a while back with a 3-player mason team, a 3-player mafia team, and VTs. Interestingly, a bunch of people started scumreading the mason team because of point #1. That's actually kind of the point of the setup. Masons have to put up an act in order to not get shot, but doing so makes them massively scummy and creates associations. What makes the setup still good/scumhunty is that there are a bunch of VTs.

This setup consists of 4 mason teams and a 4 player mafia team that is pretending to be 2 mason teams. In this setup,what sets scum apart is:

1. Each scum "lover pair" is aware of another "lover pair" that they absolutely can't lynch. This, in theory, creates associations. Scum otherwise doesn't care who they lynch.

And that's really it. The problem is that EVERYONE has one other player that they absolutely can't lynch. This already fucks up our ability to scumhunt because now everyone has associations.

So in almost every past iteration of the game in which scum won, the scum did this by screwing up the only thing setting scum apart: they made it look like they were 100% willing to lynch each other. This breaks the major playstyle difference between town and scum. Because whether we want to be or not, EVERYONE is an informed minority, and that makes everyone act at least a little scummy (because they're going to be unwilling to lynch their lover). The last game (a town win) wasn't broken by massclaiming. It was won because scum played badly and didn't play their optimal strategy (which is looking as town as possible).

I'm not cocky enough to trust my own scumhunting ability above every past town. I have reason to believe that standard scumhunting techniques will work to our detriment this game.

The longer the day goes on, the more time scum has to distance from each other and make associations impossible.
This isn't the kind of game where we can just lynch wildly until we hit scum and then find the rest of the scum from there. We just need to be able to lynch scum without scum interfering and derailing us.

No one wants to lynch by dice, I get that. If I were mod-confirmed town to you guys, I'd pick randomly by myself and insist town lynch them. But I recognise that you have no reason to trust me.

However, I trust Tora/sheep and I think you guys should too. Being my first townread, and being that sheep arbitrarily voted, I think voting cy/Lalendra before scum has a chance of mindscrewing us is to our benefit.

I'm basically asking for a speed lynch on a rando. Yeah, it's scummy under the lens of normal mechanics, whatever. I'll even let you waste a mislynch on me if you agree to follow my strategy tomorrow (would turn our odds into a coin flip). Cuz scum's gonna come in here and try to discredit all of this by arguing I'm anti-town and therefore scum (or maybe they won't now that I've predicted it, who knows). Don't care, my argument is just as right regardless of my alignment and regardless of whether I'm dead.

Vote cy, probably scum, don't let scum persuade you into bad reads.
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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:43 pm

Post by sheepsaysmeep »

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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:24 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

MathDino
I'm not cocky enough to trust my own scumhunting ability above every past town. I have reason to believe that standard scumhunting techniques will work to our detriment this game.
On the one hand I do appreciate a good wall, otoh you keep pushing the dice agenda. What's the point of signing up if you're just gonna roll dice to decide your fate.
The longer the day goes on, the more time scum has to distance from each other and make associations impossible.
I think this is probably untrue because we can simply scroll back to the previous page to see what those associations looked like at the start of the day, because everybody who has to make a vote has to make that vote accountable. And in this setup, every players vote has to be SUPER accountable. If we just roll the dice randomly or turbo lynch somebody we destroy the credibility of that accountability, and if we miss, then come the next day phase we can't use vote-count-analysis to help us find the baddies.

So I'm against both a dice roll and a turbo random lynch.
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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I guess what we are looking for is the set of interactions between declared groups that seem suspicious. If you think of every player group as a hydra, we're looking for the two hydra's that have shady interactions.

So with that in mind I think that the mass claim is probably for the best, and in flagrant disregard of what my lover said earlier, I'll go ahead and declare that I'm paired with DiamonSentinel. Interestingly we both independently hated on the dice routine.

In our topic we basically discussed what the setup was because apparently neither of us read it before signing up, then freaking out when we realised that we had no idea how to scumhunt in this scenario, and then to claim or not claim. We decided we'd just go with the flow, so, here I am, flowing away.

That kinda sounds gross :V
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:44 pm

Post by Lalendra »

Hi all! Happy New year. Finally got a chance to read and I'm confirming my lover is cy. This is the first time I have played this setup, but as of right now, I'm not getting the best vibes from math. He seems way too eager to peg the ones who followed his early lead on claiming lovers as town. That said, I don't really think that those who claimed after he proposed this approach are the other two scum, because it would be too obvious. I think they were townies who were following his lead. I know it's been said already, but it really feels like the random lynch approach is icky; seems like an easy way to mislynch and then say "oh well, better luck next time." We can't afford that. He even says that if he were confirmed town he would still choose randomly, but I don't believe that's true. The "I know this is scummy but we should do it anyway" just feels like backpedaling. Also not a huge fan of the overly-aggressive "follow the townbloc/sheep me cuz I'm obvtown" tone of his posts thus far. (And before he tries to say this is OMGUS, I feel that I have plenty of reasons for my vote, whereas his is completely arbitrary.)

VOTE: MathDino
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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:45 pm

Post by sheepsaysmeep »

i also didnt like the follow sheep
it sort of feels like him pinning a mislynch on me

i do think this is an approach that i can see town using
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:46 pm

Post by sheepsaysmeep »

pairs:
tor and sheep
mathdina and amrochora
redflavor and manrock
cy and lalendra
diamon and sky
kop and bigfin


think this is correct
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:10 pm

Post by DiamondSentinel »

In post 80, Sky_Paladin wrote:I guess what we are looking for is the set of interactions between declared groups that seem suspicious. If you think of every player group as a hydra, we're looking for the two hydra's that have shady interactions.

So with that in mind I think that the mass claim is probably for the best, and in flagrant disregard of what my lover said earlier, I'll go ahead and declare that I'm paired with DiamonSentinel. Interestingly we both independently hated on the dice routine.

In our topic we basically discussed what the setup was because apparently neither of us read it before signing up, then freaking out when we realised that we had no idea how to scumhunt in this scenario, and then to claim or not claim. We decided we'd just go with the flow, so, here I am, flowing away.

That kinda sounds gross :V
I read it. I was just musing about possible strategies. Anyways, as my partner said, I’m not exactly sure how best to find scum in this situation.

I want to hear everyone sizing up on the rising MathDino wagon. While I don’t like MathDino, I’m a bit contested. In particular, I want amrochora to give some input, because a scumread on Math means a scumread on you.
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'Such questions cannot be answered,' said Gandalf. 'You may be sure that it was not for any merit that others do not possess. But you have been chosen, and you must therefore use such strength and heart and wits as you have.”
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:12 pm

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Coincidentally, I also want to hear from sheep’s partner. They (sheep) are yapping their gums a lot and it looks like it’s scum trying to bog down the thread.
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'Such questions cannot be answered,' said Gandalf. 'You may be sure that it was not for any merit that others do not possess. But you have been chosen, and you must therefore use such strength and heart and wits as you have.”
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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:09 pm

Post by Mathdino »

As predicted, AT LEAST one scum is trying to discredit me. And this is actually exactly why town winrates for this setup are far lower than random lynching. Scum has motivation and scum has numbers, and thus has some level of control over the town's conversation. I'm specifically trying to dominate the conversation with a quicklynch to counteract that. The best I can hope for is that town will listen and agree.

There are a few arguments against me that I'll respond to, although at least one of them is being made by scum so this is partially theatrics for the town, because the scum will never agree with me anyway:

SkyPaladin
: You're literally right that scumhunting is near impossible in this setup. Those hydra interactions you're talking about are fucked. In normal mafia, bussing is a viable strategy. Here, bussing is suicide. So what does scum try to do all the time? They bus when applicable and screw up associative tells. Scumhunting is just a massive fucking can of WIFOM that
scum will win because they have the numbers
. Scum can control the discussion. It's gonna get even worse tomorrow.

Lalendra
: I'm not gonna unvote your team unless sheep does, so a conversation with you is unfortunately not too useful, since I'm uninterested in scumhunting. I would be okay however if, as we were about to lynch you, you arbitrarily picked a lynch for us at the end of the day. This kinda follows my whole "sheep an arbitrary townie's lynch target" strategy.

To respond to a couple things in particular:
"He even says that if he were confirmed town he would still choose randomly, but I don't believe that's true": Then you're just wrong, and you don't know enough about how I think to know you're wrong. Feel free to leaf through my open games if you're actually interested in sorting me (I won't expect it of you, but if it eases your mind, whatever). Sun shines, grass grows, Mathdino breaks setups. The main things that stop me are in the set of {obstinate townies, scared scum, D1 going majorly off the rails in some way}.

"The "I know this is scummy but we should do it anyway" just feels like backpedaling": I think you skimmed/missed the point in some way. IN A NORMAL GAME, what I'm doing would be massively scummy, because scumhunting increases town's winrate in normal games. In this game, scumhunting literally decreases our winrate, so I'm uninterested in scumhunting. I do believe I can come up with at least one townread, and I'm basing my entire game around that. Because that's where the math leads me.

@sheepsaysmeep:
I see no reason to ever change my townread on your team. My plan if you lead us into a mislynch is to just ask you who to lynch tomorrow and follow that. This falls along the lines of "the longer the day goes on, the more time scum has to manipulate us". Changing my reads is anti-town because it's likely I'm being manipulated in some way.

@Diamond
: Hint: there's basically no way to find scum in this situation, and trying has been proven time and time again to fail.

I don't really have much more response to Diamond, but for those of you interested in actual scumhunting, notice how neither Sky_Paladin nor Diamond are sure on how to scumhunt in this situation, so they both default to discrediting my solution
which is specifically to solve the "no real way to scumhunt" problem
. So they're probably scum. Or maybe this is me confbiasing because they disagree with me. Dunno. At the very least I have no reason to townread them, so I'm sticking to sheep/Tora as my locktown team.
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:24 pm

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I'm not discrediting you. It's just that if I wanted to just go with sheer randomness, I'd go to Vegas. The mentality that "they disagree with me so they must be scum" is absolutely fucking stupid, and for someone who's played mafia as long as you have to say that is absolutely pathetic.

Also, when you addressed my partner with the whole "They bus when applicable" thing, scum do that in every game. Welcome to the game of mafia, kiddo.
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:30 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Meh. I don't really trust my own scumreads this game so I'm not gonna stake myself on a 1v1 with your team.

Like I said, I'm trying to townhunt, not scumhunt. So I'm sorting people into "townish or not townish" instead of "scummy or not scummy". The vibe I'm getting from your team thus far is "not town" and I don't really care to analyse much further. I'd be cool with a lynch on you guys but I'm not gonna spend time pushing it (remember, drawn out days are bad).

You are, at the very least, discrediting my idea, which is, I believe, anti-town-wincon. I do understand the "I have principles and thus will not play optimally because it's more fun that way" argument. But also keep in mind that from a scum's perspective, since my plan obviously hurts them, they have to choose between:

1. Discrediting Mathdino's idea
2. Discrediting Mathdino and calling him scum

So I'm a little on edge right now when it comes to dealing with disagreement. It wouldn't really help scum to go along with my idea.
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:32 pm

Post by sheepsaysmeep »

mathdino, idc if you dont trust your scumreads; do you have any?
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:36 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 88, Mathdino wrote:It wouldn't really help scum to go along with my idea.
Talking to myself here, but yeah this is actually really bad :/

12 players, 4 scum who are probably gonna come up with a reason to go against the idea, then the idea can only handle 2 defections. Needs 3 teams to go along with it.

That said I'm sticking to my guns of "scumhunting is bad for town" based on the data, so if you guys decide to start scumhunting, I'm just gonna keep sheeping Tora/sheep and hope they're right. Feel free to lynch me if they vote for a team other than my own, and I for some reason decide not to sheep them. That would basically indicate me as scum, because I should have no reason to suddenly change my mind and be like "yeah wait I was okay with sheeping you on Team X, but not if you're trying to lynch Team Y" unless I was scum with Team Y.

PEdit: Lalendra/cy is one scumread (I think we lucked out on that, which is good for my brain because I don't have to go against my gut) and I guess Sky/Diamond is null-scummy. I'm lowkey townreading Kop/BigFinn being massively inactive. Partially by the "scum likes to whine about inactive partners" argument.
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:37 pm

Post by DiamondSentinel »

I'm not saying your idea is wrong. That's clearly false (although considering that town loses this more often than not in practice, we can't count on theory). I'm saying that I'm not willing to play that way.

So, naturally, that means that my read on you and my dislike of your idea are disconnected.

PEdit: Also, if you don't trust your scumreads, then sheep people. The answer to "I don't trust my instincts" is not to say "so fuck everyone else's, let's random vote!"
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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:41 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 91, DiamondSentinel wrote:I'm not saying your idea is wrong. That's clearly false (although considering that town loses this more often than not in practice, we can't count on theory). I'm saying that I'm not willing to play that way.

So, naturally, that means that my read on you and my dislike of your idea are disconnected.

PEdit: Also, if you don't trust your scumreads, then sheep people. The answer to "I don't trust my instincts" is not to say "so fuck everyone else's, let's random vote!"
That's fair, and I can respect that. Just understand my perspective, which is that scum IS FORCED to say something along the lines of what you just said. Doesn't mean you're scum, but it does mean I have to be suspicious of that.

And yeah that's literally my whole strategy lol. I'm personally kingmaking the Tora/sheep team and I'll follow their vote (I can only hope that their vote is as arbitrary as possible). I can provide input under traditional scumhunting but I would hope people understand that with that input is a massive disclaimer saying
"I am probably being manipulated by the high volume of scum in this game!"


My best scumhunting is during LyLo. I don't think I've ever lost a LyLo. Lot of information to deal with, lot of associations. I don't think I can win this in 2 days though.
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:56 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

MathDino, that's a big strawman. Town can completely disagree with your idea because it's a pants idea. I'm not calling you bad or stupid for it, I'm saying it's scum to push the agenda that it's too hard to scumhunt so we should just roll a dice instead, and that's why I'm voting you.

Vote count analysis/vote analysis/holding people accountable for their votes - these are things that hold true in regular games and will certainly hold true in this game. To pretend otherwise is the scum agenda.
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:57 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Also, if you don't trust your scumreads, then sheep people
Actually I disagree with this. IMO if you don't trust your scumreads, then get better scumreads.
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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:00 pm

Post by sheepsaysmeep »

then sheep tr's
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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 93, Sky_Paladin wrote:MathDino, that's a big strawman. Town can completely disagree with your idea because it's a pants idea. I'm not calling you bad or stupid for it, I'm saying it's scum to push the agenda that it's too hard to scumhunt so we should just roll a dice instead, and that's why I'm voting you.

Vote count analysis/vote analysis/holding people accountable for their votes - these are things that hold true in regular games and will certainly hold true in this game. To pretend otherwise is the scum agenda.
And I completely disagree with you on that, and if you're town, you kind of are implying I'm not good by pushing an idea you think is bad. I know that I'm only doing this from a town standpoint. I'm guessing this debate will be more applicable postgame though since you don't know that (again assuming you're town).

I would love for this to be an ordinary game. But I have to go with what the evidence suggests, which is that going through the motions of scumhunting hurts town in this setup. Incidentally, it's been shown that longer deadlines/longer days also hurts town in regular games (scum has more time to manipulate, town has more time to second guess its good early reads), but I can't really do anything about that.

On a sidenote, my latest obsession is learning economics, and I'm beginning to realise that the focus on game theory and modeling things has seriously impacted my play.
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 93, Sky_Paladin wrote:Town can completely disagree with your idea because it's a pants idea.
To more specifically respond to this, I know that town CAN disagree with it. That's beside the point: I'm saying that scum MUST disagree with it. So I naturally must consider that anyone who disagrees with it could be scum.

This obviously comes from the perspective that the ideas I've been proposing are objectively more optimal for town, which is supported by the evidence and the literature and no one's really disproved me on that outside of "it's disingenuous to play that way".
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:33 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Can you please explain why you disagree that vote count analysis, vote analysis, and holding people accountable for their vote, are worthwhile scumhunting tools in this game.

I do not mean to say that you are 'not good'. I think your idea is a poor one, in that it adversely impacts town, but it does not mean I think poorly of you. I just think that any idea that asks us to trade our experience and scumhunting tools for the random hand of fate, is more likely to come from a scum player than a town player.
I would love for this to be an ordinary game.
Then treat it as such. This is no different to a regular game where the setup is known and night phase is skipped.
I'm saying that scum MUST disagree with it.
No, they don't. Scum can agree with it all the way up until we actually roll a dice and it happens to come up with a scum name. They'll happily go along with it as long as it's a towny being lynched and we'd never known until game over. I think statistically the dice roll favors scum - the first roll is 8/12 in hitting town, and the second roll is 6/12. That's a better than 50% chance, if my napkin math is correct, of scum winning off the rolls.
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:36 pm

Post by sheepsaysmeep »

i will never have the motivation to read this interaction
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