Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]


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Post Post #1550 (ISO) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:39 pm

Post by AnonymousGhost »

Hide behind Una.
Talk Fast, Think Faster


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Post Post #1551 (ISO) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:40 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I would ask the hiders to hide behind people they think are scum this time.


If you hide behind someone to confirm them as town, scum might shoot them anyway. You don't want to die that way.

It's SIGNIFICANTLY more useful for town for you to hide behind scum and die. We then have one confirmed town and one confirmed scum.

sheep if you wanna change your choice feel free.

Edit: Nice pick.
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Post Post #1552 (ISO) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:50 pm

Post by AnonymousGhost »

Adding onto this,

Hiders can also choose their theoretical target based on whether or not they believe their chosen target is the
SK. The theoretical Hider will die if they hide behind the SK.
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Post Post #1553 (ISO) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:51 pm

Post by AnonymousGhost »

@Mod - Please replace me.


Sorry to do this to you guys. I hope you find a replacement in a reasonable amount of time! It's been an uphill battle putting in recent effort. Sadly this wouldn't improve over the course of the game, judging by my upcoming schedule change. It would not fair for you or me if I couldn't participate due to lack of time and motivation.

Anyway!

Good luck chickadees!

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Post Post #1554 (ISO) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:53 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Thanks for saving your slot. Cheers. Hope you come back to the site.
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Post Post #1555 (ISO) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:06 pm

Post by yessiree »

Seeking a replacement for AnonymousGhost. No extensions are given at this time.
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Post Post #1556 (ISO) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:58 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I just finished a game with RedFlavor. He didn't replace out of that one.

Hate to use alignment indicative replacements as a strategy, but I think Ghost's slot has become my strongest townread.
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Post Post #1557 (ISO) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:00 pm

Post by Impede »

RIP! Sad! Take care Ghost!

Pedit: Agreed. Hope her replace is half as useful.
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Post Post #1558 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:36 am

Post by Mathdino »

Yo so I don't think there's a doctor because ~reasons~ (unrelated to my role; if I am a PR, there's a 5% chance there are other PRs, and I still don't think there's a doc). PR has a high chance of dying tonight so here's a quick guide:

PR possibilities:

Hider: We're taking care of that.
1-shot Tracker: I hope you breadcrumbed well, because whomever you tracked last night is obviously clear.
Jailkeeper: Same goes to you. Breadcrumbs are king. Breadcrumbing future targets is also good.
Vengeful: Basically a named townie, this would suck.
Rolecop: Is basically our test for serial killer cuz mafia only has a goon left. Hopefully said something.

VTs out there
: If you wanna help the friendly PR, it wouldn't hurt to start breadcrumbing random players as if you checked them or will check them. This muddles scum's ability to find the real PR. Real PR should definitely be breadcrumbing target somehow in a way that becomes clear upon ISO.

Anyway, I think I'm at a point where I'd feel more comfortable lynching Kop than sheep.

For those of you interested in analysing sheep:

Here's a massive metadive someone did in a completed game just now. Outlines different things about town!sheep and scum!sheep. I can't really be arsed to go through his ISO and do a case but I encourage you guys to and see if you find anything.
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Post Post #1559 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:59 am

Post by Srceenplay »

In post 1545, Mathdino wrote:Not maf bloc: {momo, Impede, Ghost, Hawk, Screen}
Lynchpool: {sheep, Kop, fitz}
Kinda both: {Una}
If una has a high chance of being either one or the other, why do you keep voting somewhere else?
Let’s sort it right now and we know who we are looking for after that flip.
Right now I feel like una is mafia and math is sk. Math knows this and is using una is sk to distance himself from sk. He is trying to vote elsewhere to keep a scum role alive one more night.
Thoughts?
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Post Post #1560 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:30 am

Post by yessiree »

Gamma Emerald replaces AnonymousGhost. Welcome!
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Post Post #1561 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:07 am

Post by havingfitz »

Rereading from before the weekend.

why is Una a town read for you in this reads list? (Hawk asks same question in 1243).

The last line of Math's caught my attention for some reason. "Between SK and mafia, do you really think momo/I will live to endgame anyway?" At the moment I'm of the opinion neither of them is scum so I doubt it turns out to be anything...but I wanted to mention it in case it turns out they are the last mafia and the SK (based on no vig claims).

Still not sure what sheep is referring to.

when you say "He's been swearing up and down past few pages that 1T is impossible." who are you referring to? If me...I do not think this comment is accurate.

where am I "trying to 'prove' there's only 1 mafia left?" If we are assuming there is no vig based on the claims you requested of everyone...the only option that exists in the game is TTTTT, which includes an SK. I guess there is a very slim chance of 1T, which would be bad, but I'm discounting it because 1) odds are so low and 2) because that would mean a shit load of town prs are still in the game and I'm sure someone would have claimed...or provided a result...or something to indicate there was more than 1 town pr remaining in the game. I started to make a post on this last Friday but then when I was about to post it it just felt mostly redundant to what Math was already saying and I passed. But for those who are wondering where my mind was at last week wrt the remaining roles...here is the post (spoilered) I was going to post last friday:

------------------------------------------
Spoiler: My crack at math
Here are the scum team options (with those ruled out by tracker and bus driver flips):

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver


TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer


TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer


TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT


We can all probably agree that
there is no way we got 0Ts.
I think the odds are less than 1% (.78).
I think we can all probably agree
it's pretty doubtful we got just 1 T.
Those odds are less than 6% (5.46).

Chances of 2Ts and 5Ts are the same (I think)...16.4%.

Not sure why Math was focused on T and TTTTT and completely (iirc) skipped TT which had twice as much chance of happening as 1 T. (In one of his most recent posts he states this is because a Vig has not claimed....fair enough if we think a vig WOULD claim).

So IMO the most realistic odds are we got 2Ts or 5Ts.


For 5Ts:

FACT: Mafia knows if all they have left is a goon...there is 100% an SK in the game and one more town PR (probably not a vig given only 2 nks on N1).

If town knew this was the set up...how would that help? We'd would still be looking for two anti-town players. With the added benefit that the two anti-town players were also looking for each other.



For the equally likely 2Ts:

FACT: Mafia has a JOAT and they know there is another killing entity (vig or SK). For mafia...what do they care? There is still another killing role in the game they need to get rid of. No matter it vig or SK.

However! For town...if the cost of knowing this set up was revealing who the vig was...how would that matter? Town could choose NOT to out its vig and have the vig face a certain NK OR town could keep the Vig a secret and go on its merry way looking for 2 anti-town roles (in this case the two remaining mafia).

So is the extra knowledge of what the set up might be worth potentially having a vig killed?

A vig claim would be immeasurably helpful to scum who would then be rid of a serious threat to their existence.

In summary...if there is in fact a vig...I'm glad they did not claim. All the while...nothing has changed in my objective of finding 2 more anti-town players (as I really hope and doubt the random letter generator just spit out 1 T...the the extra PRs would be nice).


Disclaimer...if my math is wrong...fock. But at least I'm not asking for any claims and I'm just debating the merits of discussions already had :)

Bonus summary
I still think IF town has a vig...that it would be idiotic of them to claim just to help establish there are two mafia left and oh by the way...the vig probably gets killed tonight. Especially when town should be under the assumption there are two anti-town entities left no matter what. That's just how I am wired. Disagree if you must. As ridiculous as you might think I am being for believing a vig shouldn't claim...I find you ridiculous for suggesting it. The veracity of a claim can be sorted if it happens and leaves open the possibility they stay alive in the meantime.

And since the odds of TT OR TTTTT occurring are so close to each other...I don't want to just assume we are in a TTTTT situation and dealing with a goon and an SK. If we get flips from mafia JOAT OR from two more town PRs we'll know definitively.
------------------------------------------

I'm not sure where people are getting townslips OR scumflips from but IMO there are no issues with my understanding of the game set up. The one thing I will say I am not sure of is all the different variables/possibilities for what the remaining town pr/s might be are. As Math has worked tirelessy to try and .

Back to my weekend reread/catch up...

how are you coming to the conclusion that Assembler's post 93 is from town or SK? Because mafia!Assembler would not so obviously town read a partner?
....If the answer is yes...I disagree. And on that possibility...Creature did seem hands off the Assembler role fwiw (Ex. where Creature questions Math's vote on Assembler and where he rates Srceen "town I guess.").
....If not that...why?

why are you ruling Una out as a potential SK?

how am I overanalyzing the Creature lynch? I have three D2 posts (prior to this one) where I say I think mafia was not on Creature's wagon. Three posts. Same assessment in each. No rocket science involved. Where is the overanalyzing? A bit redundant perhaps as I was addressing different players with each post...but Creature was in fact the D1 lynch and his flip does warrant consideration.

I like Impede's How does that make him not an option as sk Math? I also like Impede's post 1540 pointing out Una Creature comments.

I did not assume throughout the day (today) that there was 1 scum remaining. Up to the point we heard back from all the vig claims (which I still dislike) I was open to there being one or two mafia still in the game. I've given my reasons for thinking 0 and 1 T were never really strong options. TT and TTTTT however were both equal possibilities for me most of today (prior to accepting the vig claims). I don't know how you are getting town or scum reads on me based on your perceived view of my set up opinions but at least you should be working off my correct opinion. Regardless of what the does to your read on me.

wrt Anon's Day Two comment that I agree with Math's case Impede is likely town...that is incorrect. I am in agreement Impede is likely town...but not for "Math's case" which was competing wagons. Mine was VCA based and did not take competing wagons into consideration.

What do you mean if only I wouldn't have hid behind jay?

My current reads:

As I mentioned before...(and on the assumption 1 mafia left)...I do not think there is mafia on the Creature lynch.

In order...
Not Mafia - Gamma, Hawk, Impede, momo, Math
Mafia candidates - sheep, Una, Srceen/Kop

I have no idea at this point who the SK is (for many reasons mentioned in Impede's My hope would be that SK was off the Creature lynch as well and if we miss mafia...we get lucky and hit SK.

I'll hypo hide behind Kop
.

I'll vote either sheep or Una. Not clearing Srceen but the sheep Una suspicions are stronger.

sheep's closer to lynch so I'll VOTE: UnaBombaH.
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Post Post #1562 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:16 am

Post by Impede »

Welcome Gamma. Sorry for the massive catchup. Blame Sheep. Feel free to ask questions.
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Post Post #1563 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:18 am

Post by Impede »

In post 1558, Mathdino wrote:Rolecop: Is basically our test for serial killer cuz mafia only has a goon left. Hopefully said something.
I don't think Role Cop gets a meaningful result on SK. I think SK investigates as Vanilla.
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Post Post #1564 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:19 am

Post by Impede »

In post 1563, Impede wrote:I don't think Role Cop gets a meaningful result on SK. I think SK investigates as Vanilla.
Nvm, I'm dumb af. SK has abilities.
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Post Post #1565 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:55 am

Post by Impede »

In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:@Impede....why are you ruling Una out as a potential SK?
Not really ruling out, but if he was being genuine in his push on A50, then one would expect him to save that kill for later in the game rather than risk shooting maf on D1 (as Math kindly clarified)
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Post Post #1566 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:00 am

Post by Hawk »

Did everyone claim not the XX roles so we're almost certainly 5T?? If they did I would like to address Fitz concern that IF town still has Vig that they should claim... because in the event that we do have Vig and not SK and we don't have II, RR, or HH, because people haven't claimed Gunsmith, 1-shot Tracker, 1 shot Commuter then we would firmly be in a good spot that P or PP could be possible and doc would have claimed Vigis back and JOAT would have to Wifom who's Doc.
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Post Post #1567 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:06 am

Post by Hawk »

Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible. Meaning vigi claim would firmly cement us into 2t I think. while no Vigi claim puts us into 1t or 5t because there were 2 NK.
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Post Post #1568 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:09 am

Post by Impede »

In post 1567, Hawk wrote:Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible.
Unless I’m dumb, this is false. This is the reason that 7T is impossible.
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Post Post #1569 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:15 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1568, Impede wrote:
In post 1567, Hawk wrote:Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible.
Unless I’m dumb, this is false. This is the reason that 7T is impossible.
Yes. 6T too.
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Post Post #1570 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:16 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 1559, Srceenplay wrote:If una has a high chance of being either one or the other, why do you keep voting somewhere else?
Let’s sort it right now and we know who we are looking for after that flip.
Right now I feel like una is mafia and math is sk. Math knows this and is using una is sk to distance himself from sk. He is trying to vote elsewhere to keep a scum role alive one more night.
Thoughts?
Welcome back to paranoia city. I got cold feet on the Una thing a few pages ago. You can see this both times I was asked to go through Una's ISO. There are a few things that don't make sense with him as SK.

But look, if we get mafia today, as I'm obviously trying to, and I'm somehow still not dead, you can take a second look at me.

Your theory requires me to actually believe Una is mafia (and I've presented several pieces of evidence to the contrary) and then whirlwind into bullshitting a vote on someone else (do you really see evidence of that in my analysis?).
In post 1566, Hawk wrote:Did everyone claim not the XX roles so we're almost certainly 5T?? If they did I would like to address Fitz concern that IF town still has Vig that they should claim... because in the event that we do have Vig and not SK and we don't have II, RR, or HH, because people haven't claimed Gunsmith, 1-shot Tracker, 1 shot Commuter then we would firmly be in a good spot that P or PP could be possible and doc would have claimed Vigis back and JOAT would have to Wifom who's Doc.
lol ok i'll just be the setup guy then
Town does NOT have a vig, if anyone claims vig I'm honestly just gonna assume they're SK.
The chance that we have 2 docs is around 2.5%. Don't bet on it. We probably have one power role alive and I'm fairly sure it's not doc.
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Post Post #1571 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:19 am

Post by Mathdino »

Does fitz know that I think incorrect/bad math and setup spec is a towntell for me?

@fitz:
Your math is wrong in more than a few ways, but I don't really care enough to refute it unless you really want me to. Basically I already went over that a while ago.
But none of that matters now because we've pretty much narrowed down the setup.
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Post Post #1572 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:23 am

Post by Impede »

In post 1567, Hawk wrote:Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible. Meaning vigi claim would firmly cement us into 2t I think. while no Vigi claim puts us into 1t or 5t because there were 2 NK.
This is contingent on no JK. If there’s a JK, there’s an offchance that one of the kills got roleblocked and we could have Vig and SK.
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Post Post #1573 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:33 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1571, Mathdino wrote:1- Does fitz know that I think incorrect/bad math and setup spec is a towntell for me?

2-
@fitz:
Your math is wrong in more than a few ways, but I don't really care enough to refute it unless you really want me to. Basically I already went over that a while ago.
But none of that matters now because we've pretty much narrowed down the setup.
1 -
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:I don't know how you are getting town or scum reads on me based on your perceived view of my set up opinions but at least you should be working off my correct opinion. Regardless of what the does to your read on me.
2-
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:I started to make a post on this last Friday but then when I was about to post it it just felt mostly redundant to what Math was already saying and I passed. But for those who are wondering where my mind was at last week wrt the remaining roles...here is the post (spoilered) I was going to post last friday:
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Post Post #1574 (ISO) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:36 am

Post by Mathdino »

A few of these questions could've been answered by paying more attention tbh. But more content, more questions I guess.
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:why is Una a town read for you in this reads list? (Hawk asks same question in 1243).
Holdover of townread from D1, and I also answered this when Screen asked me to ISO Una/Creature together.
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:when you say "He's been swearing up and down past few pages that 1T is impossible." who are you referring to? If me...I do not think this comment is accurate.
And I think it's accurate. It's hard for me to prove you wrong because we're probably actually in 5T, but you were wrong there.
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:where am I "trying to 'prove' there's only 1 mafia left?" If we are assuming there is no vig based on the claims you requested of everyone...the only option that exists in the game is TTTTT, which includes an SK. I guess there is a very slim chance of 1T, which would be bad, but I'm discounting it because 1) odds are so low and 2) because that would mean a shit load of town prs are still in the game and I'm sure someone would have claimed...or provided a result...or something to indicate there was more than 1 town pr remaining in the game.
Believe it or not, after the Tracker flip, 1T and 5T were of exactly equal probability. This is because the Tracker flip in a sense removes a letter from the conversation, leaving 6 unknown letters. 1T and 5T are symmetrical. It was 50/50 before we realised almost no one was a PR.
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:how are you coming to the conclusion that Assembler's post 93 is from town or SK? Because mafia!Assembler would not so obviously town read a partner?
....If the answer is yes...I disagree. And on that possibility...Creature did seem hands off the Assembler role fwiw (Ex. where Creature questions Math's vote on Assembler and where he rates Srceen "town I guess.").
Not only obviously townreading him but singling him out and claiming to be able to read him and being completely wrong. It's not like it's a secret, being able to read Creature. He put himself out there in a way I don't think scum would want to be accountable for.
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:I like Impede's How does that make him not an option as sk Math? I also like Impede's post 1540 pointing out Una Creature comments.
Because he has no idea what the fuck SK would do and this indicates that he hasn't put himself in the mind of an SK.
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:I did not assume throughout the day (today) that there was 1 scum remaining. Up to the point we heard back from all the vig claims (which I still dislike) I was open to there being one or two mafia still in the game. I've given my reasons for thinking 0 and 1 T were never really strong options. TT and TTTTT however were both equal possibilities for me most of today (prior to accepting the vig claims). I don't know how you are getting town or scum reads on me based on your perceived view of my set up opinions but at least you should be working off my correct opinion. Regardless of what the does to your read on me.
OK.

What do you mean if only I wouldn't have hid behind jay? [/quote]
Jay had RedFlavor in his shooting pool. We emergency reorganised our hider targets at the end of the day.
From this I'm reading that you haven't really kept up tbh.

Not super impressed with fitz's catchup (also given that half is fallacious math) but dude's probably town.
Literally no one has given me a good case on Una-mafia. I did a bit of that meta literature and I do think sheep is playing his scumgame. Vote stands here.
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