Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Mathdino]

ughhhh

i went through Kop's ISO and there are a bunch of things inconsistent with my SK-hunting guide

this feels like lynchbait

i'm starting to think SK is actually hawk

[yessiree]

VC 3.1

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Kop (2) [L-2] -

Mathdino, Impede

Not voting

- Srceenplay, Kop, UnabombaH, Hawk, havingfitz

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-02-01 17:00:00)

[Hawk]

I'm not SK.

I suck at hunting SK.

Also I was more confident it was impede not Kop or Una. Kop and Una look pretty town with Ghost being mafia and Impede still being alive. Flip Impede first imo.

VOTE: Impede

[Srceenplay]

I’m giving you one more game day Dino. I think you deserve that much. If you don’t give us the win today.
Then I’m Vote parking you.

[Mathdino]

prove it's impede

also what does it indicate to you that i'm still alive (other than the threat of me getting protected, which i guess is fairly obvious)

Edit: policy-lynch-worthy, screenplay
i solve groupscum lylos, not 1v6 SK games

[Mathdino]

you're literally better off lynching me today if you're that paranoid

i'm not gonna be significantly better than other townies at SK hunting lol, i don't "deserve" an extra day to "give" you the win (wtf?)

if you think i'm most likely to be SK, write a case, vote me, and we'll see if we can compromise later if town can't agree on a lynch

[Mathdino]

Finally put together a Kopcase.
That said, it's a towncase.

@hawk, was momo lynchbait in the last game you played with him? I recall playing with him before, Im not sure if we were in the same game the three of us, because a part of me seems to be remembering he was a hard player to play with and it was as if he was just trolling the game, rather than actively playing the game in serious mode.

Avoiding lynchbait, trying to get other players to talk about whether people are lynchbait.

If I were hider, I would hide behind Almost50.

It doesn't benefit him to shoot A50 here. It just confirms himself as not-hider (making him more likely to get shot), and removes the chance of killing town by way of hider.

VOTE: Impede

This is a wagon outside of Jay/red that I'd like to take off. I don't necessarily scum read Jay, but I just feel he's being hard pressed into a mislynch, I just don't think scum would be that stupid to focus all of the attention onto themselves in the manner he has done since gamestart. I obviously wouldn't like to think that we could possibly go into LYLO with him but I'm wanting to go into different areas rather than focus on him for days on end.

@Jay, Creature is null for me. I've played with Creature a few times, and in most of them, he wasn't entirely active so it's hard for me to get a lock on read on him. It's 50/50 if I was to vote for him to be the next lynch. Unless he shows me a sign that he is scum, I will act upon it.

Twice avoids lynchbait in Jay and Creature.

I understand you have your sights set on Jay, and I do agree with you with what you are saying, but personally I'd rather go for someone who can give us more information going into day two so we can get a stronger read on others, I feel lynching Jay on day one, isn't going to give us anything and reads won't be as strong as they would by lynching someone who gives us more. Jay will never be shot, so that is going to obviously be in the back of everyones mind and someone we don't want in LYLO, but he can easily be done on day 2 or 3 if we aren't further forward in lynching scum.

Is trying to argue me out of my lynch on the basis of high-info vs low-info lynches.

VOTE: Red

This is a avenue I think is what I want to go down right now. That hammer vote doesn't get him any town credit, and I think it stinks a lot of scum cutting ties. His vote on Una made no sense on day one towards the end of it, and he never really gave a good enough reason for me to believe that vote was genuine.

Lone wolfing after RedFlavor. Generally correct reasoning. Why shoot the slot you think is scum?

Why is Momo the best lynch today?

Again, seems to strongly care about who we actually lynch.

Right now in my mind, I'm happy to have the intention of having Sheep at L-1 unofficially.

But I'm also having a consideration on putting focus on Hawk and Una.

I think the last mafia could be lying in between Hawk and Sheep.

Again seems to care a lot.

I await to see these, because in all honesty, I didn't see any possible connections that would make him Creatures partner. He feels more of a loner which means he is either town or the SK.

Literally the first mention of SK. I guess this could set himself up for ability to lynch Una, but calling Una town makes the lynch straight up less likely.

Kop's town.
UNVOTE:

idk who the fuck to vote right now hang on

[Hawk]

Jay is the SK, that’s why he has a survivor wincon. Game solved. Great effort. Let’s go home guys

They look more like VIs and easy mislynches for me.

Listen to you. You're making no cases, no effort to sort anyone. You're not voting, and you're defending whoever the majority thinks maybe good lynches w/o giving any rational reason for it nor providing an alternative.

Now I acknowledge I have seen you do this as Town too, but I'm not even getting that sinking feeling you're Town here.

Like why do you think I picked YOU as my hypothetical target if I was Hider?

This is wolfy. I could see this being town trying to pressure a scumread, but it comes off as contrived.

They look more like VIs and easy mislynches for me.

Listen to you. You're making no cases, no effort to sort anyone. You're not voting, and you're defending whoever the majority thinks maybe good lynches w/o giving any rational reason for it nor providing an alternative.

Now I acknowledge I have seen you do this as Town too, but I'm not even getting that sinking feeling you're Town here.

Like why do you think I picked YOU as my hypothetical target if I was Hider?

This is wolfy. I could see this being town trying to pressure a scumread, but it comes off as contrived.

You know what? I've just sneezed AND coughed. I bet "now you could see it being Town catching a cold", but it would still comes off as scummy sneezing/coughing to you. Right? Right!

I didn't hear you sneeze and cough, so it's hard to say. I do hear a lot of "woof woof" though.

Decided to take a closer look at Kop rather than continue lazily nullreading him. Not enough for me to want to vote him, but it's moved him to a scumlean for me.

Kop: POLICY LYNCH. idk him giving advice to jay seems really forced, the way he's doing it. like he's speaking as a player and not as a townie?

Didn't really take notice of this at the time because of how forced Math's readslist was, but it echoes my exact sentiment of Kop's early play.

His entrance with the hammer response and all of the being LAMIST while also trying to look annoyed at Jay just comes off wrong. Lots of nice theory talk, but no real content.

Can you elaborate on some of these, because this is striking me as forced reads. Your accusing me of looking forced, this is more forced shit rather than actual reads.

How does Almost50 look town, what does town look like? He's made one RVS vote, and one filler post. How does that make him look town?

Creature, if you believe he is nullscum, why aren't you voting him since he's virtually your only scum read?

Impede, how is he towning around?

Jay, so your happy to lynch someone just to learn them to stop acting scummy, rather than actually lynching someone who you scum read? Do you scum read Jay or not?

Myself, your talking about policy lynching someone on page 4, and no reason because Fitz has painted myself as a policy lynch because of previous games.

Overall, reading these reads, I don't think they are actually genuine reads right now, and is just trying to look active.

VOTE: Mathdino

This is a jankity post. But it demonstrates two things to me: 1) Kop seems meticulous about his posts (scummy imho, but maybe personality), 2) For all the effort, he actually put no effort into understanding town motivation for Math's readslist and took it as an opportunity to discredit and vote.

@math I understand your reason by how or why you've posted the reads, I just felt they were forced rather than actual reads. Some of them I didn't agree with but I'll follow your thoughts and see how you progress with them.

After the previous post, this is very diplomatic. Why make nice-nice here? Any town motivation one might've ascertained from his previous post just went out the window because he just released all the pressure he applied to Math.

VOTE: Impede

This is a wagon outside of Jay/red that I'd like to take off. I don't necessarily scum read Jay, but I just feel he's being hard pressed into a mislynch, I just don't think scum would be that stupid to focus all of the attention onto themselves in the manner he has done since gamestart. I obviously wouldn't like to think that we could possibly go into LYLO with him but I'm wanting to go into different areas rather than focus on him for days on end.

Impede on the other hand, has given me nothing to note that I could town read him for, and I do like the case Fitz has put out against Impede. Last few pages that I have been reading, his name was popping out quite a bit. His vote on Jay doesn't make any sense to me at all, I wouldn't call it opportunistic, it felt more of a let go vote. If this wagon takes off and Impede flips scum, I would 100% go back for Jay because of how that vote felt to me.

Another point I didn't quite work out, he stated that he would hide behind Momo, why would you hide behind Momo considering he had him in his town read in post #152? Why would you not hide behind Fitz, or Una who you were scum reading? I understand hiding behind your town reads would give you a better chance of living, but also confirming your reads, doesn't give anything to gamestate because you don't really confirm anything, because you could be scum lying about being the hider and the hider might not even be in the game.

Here, Kop shows up out of nowhere (holidays, I'm sure, ) and immediately sheeps Fitz. He clearly didn't want to be accused of sheeping though, so we get another meticulously crafted post and even an attempt at some original vote rationale. Problem is, the rationale is jank. The whole point of the hypoclaim in this scenario was to cover all our bases (at least that's how I understood it) so I picked a target that wasn't a hard and fast townread across the board, but who I felt wasn't scummy enough to have a reasonable chance of getting me killed. Using the hypoclaim as a basis for a vote is also really wolfy. It's purely intended as an information source if we get a Hider flip, so most town aren't going to put an excessive amount of thought into it, but the fact that he assumes that one

should

put a lot of thought into it seems to indicate that he's in a scum mindset where he has to go out of his way to choose his target carefully. This might be reaching or confbias, so feel free to shoot me down... it just doesn't sit well with me.

I understand that point on what your trying to make, but from my understanding, it would be useful if they went with there feels, rather than 'oh he's took him, I'll take someone else'. That way I can see what they are feeling and not going with the flow of the game.

I chose mine, without even looking at others, and went with what I feel I would have done if this were the real case.

I did too initially. Only checked the ongoing list when I realized what the intent was. I picked Momo BEFORE verifying that no one else did. Not that this matters. It just verifies that Kop is being very meticulous.

Quick thing, I picked fitz first and I encouraged everyone to pick different hider targets so it wouldn't draw the NK to any one person in particular.

Impede case isn't bad. It's convinced me out of a townread. Hasn't convinced me into a scumread. I see a lot of flak for his interaction with Jay, which I actually like. Seems natural to me.

How do you read Impede right now?

I understand you have your sights set on Jay, and I do agree with you with what you are saying, but personally I'd rather go for someone who can give us more information going into day two so we can get a stronger read on others, I feel lynching Jay on day one, isn't going to give us anything and reads won't be as strong as they would by lynching someone who gives us more. Jay will never be shot, so that is going to obviously be in the back of everyones mind and someone we don't want in LYLO, but he can easily be done on day 2 or 3 if we aren't further forward in lynching scum.

Maybe I'm annoyed because I'm the target of this statement, but advocating for a lynch because it's more informational rather than based on scumminess is alarming. I get that there's an unspoken subtext that "yeah you lynch someone scummy, but you should try to optimize the information you get from it", but he doesn't address the relative merits of lynching me vs lynching Jay based on scumminess, he only gets at the information we gain and then weirdly suggests that we would have to lynch Jay eventually. Possible scum setting up lynches?

Again, I don't think I want to detract from the existing wagon activity by moving my vote, but wanted to throw this out here and see if anyone thinks I'm not just excessively scumlensing.

I'll do more when I can but going through impedes ISO is gonna take a while. He talks a lot of wolfy talk d1 when we have no idea if there is SK. granted 50% of the games have SK. Also he seems to at one point get rather defensive of Kops push against him.

I'm at work and don't have time for a big super long analysis but I've been getting feelings from Impede being wolf since A50 flipped and we kinds figured it was more likely SK than anyone else. A50 ran a hard case against Impede d1 and probably would have picked it back up at some point. Plus was widely townread.

I need to ISO ghost and see if they were looking at anyone in particular that coulda pinged off a wolf.

Leaving in the quotes I started to find before realizing it was too much work for right now.

[Mathdino]

This thought just occurred to me... if an SK is genuinely scumhunting, one would expect them to be honest about their reads, yes? They have nothing to hide, no one to protect, they want to lynch maf. If we look at A50 as an SK kill (seems highly likely), I think there's a decent chance the SK actually thought A50 was scum. This is especially true of a N1 NK, as they would be less concerned with people SK-hunting, and even if they were cornered based on their reads, they could easily WIFOM their way out of it.

This means a few observations are probably true:
1) The SK would have most likely been present on the Creature wagon unless genuinely convinced he wasn't maf.
2) The SK would have to be decently convinced on scum!A50 -AND- been convinced that they couldn't get town to lynch him (why waste an NK on a foregone conclusion?)

Now, forgive me for probably being stupid and redundant, but this forces me to retract my point on Una earlier. This makes Una seem quite sus if you accept this logic.

I think SK is all but guaranteed to be in a slot that isn't highly polarizing, and probably especially likely to be flying under the radar with some genuine scumhunting thrown in. Candidates: Hawk, Kop, Ghost, Una. Added candidate because paranoia: Math

Willing to remove Hawk, as I think there's no way he would've shot A50.
Kop seemed to suspect A50, not a top scumread, but still... and A50 was his hider target... Plausible.
Red/Ghost seems plausible based on both Red's behavior, and Ghost's. Although that D1 hammer was a bit ballsy for an SK.
Una is far and away the most likely I think.

this post is the primary reason i think impede is not SK

[Hawk]

Actually wait. I wanna wait for Fitz UNVOTE:

Crazy paranoia.

Fitz you're not Vigi and were actually in 2t are you??

Pedit: Math that entire argument is counter intuitive to SK... SK should shoot town. They need as many night phases with Scum also killing town as possible. d1 the shot was most likely in self preservation to remove a50 as a threat to Impede and potentially drive Impede up for a lynch later.

[Mathdino]

no you don't understand

i agree impede has no idea how SK works

that's the point

he as SK, by his own SK-moonlogic, would not have shot A50

that post he made needs to be explained from SK-pede's point of view

did he make it all up, or did he legit think that was SK strategy

[Hawk]

no you don't understand

i agree impede has no idea how SK works

that's the point

he as SK, by his own SK-moonlogic, would not have shot A50

that post he made needs to be explained from SK-pede's point of view

did he make it all up, or did he legit think that was SK strategy

-_________-

I mean you're not wrong... fuck...

I swear to god impede if you're SK and we lose to this I'm policy lynching you d1 every game we play from now until the end of time.

[Mathdino]

After reflecting for a moment, I think we go to VOTE: Mathdino.

A50's ISO doesn't seem to have anything resembling a crumb towards him being a Tracker, however..there is the off chance scum thought he really was the hider.
A50 hypoclaimed to hide behind Creature who was the lynch, and I don't think he ever claimed a 2nd target(?).

So scum could kill him off and there would be no risk for them being implicated.
Based off of this (and the kind of thinking I feel like the kill-decision took,) I'd say Mathdino killed A50.
The off-chance is that someone tried to frame him (read his previous post), but him saying that I'm the primary suspect for it is bullshit. (the only scenario where I killed A50 is the one where I'm a vig, never as scum)
Math was also "soft-defending" A50 D1, and his playstyle fits that of a buddying SK very well.

havingfitz is still a townread for me, same as Impede.
I'll try to sink in on sheep/Red next, but I feel like they are very difficult to read ever.

meanwhile this post is why i'm super shaky about Una-SK

similar reasoning, Una has no clue how to play as SK

[Hawk]

I'll be perfectly honest that seems more organic than Impedes...

[Mathdino]

then it should be fitz, right?

unless you disagree with my kopcase or the basic screenplay logic

[Hawk]

Question did you ever mention not knowing how SK works as a clear before Impede made his case?? I'm not sure if I believe the "they don't know" how SK works is a reasonable defense as to them being town.

We need to wait for people to get in here if nothing else.

[Mathdino]

His SK post was one of the last of the day. I think I already tried to clear Una that way previously.

I think fitz did the same thing as Una at D2 start. So that might also be bunk.

[Hawk]

His SK post was one of the last of the day. I think I already tried to clear Una that way previously.

I think fitz did the same thing as Una at D2 start. So that might also be bunk.

So let's look at early day 1 and 2 Impede, Una and fitz. Screenplay I think isn't likely since he came in on a gambit pushing you Math. That seems suicidal for a replacing in SK.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: fitz

literally the only one in this game without anti-SK tells

[Impede]

I swear to god impede if you're SK and we lose to this I'm policy lynching you d1 every game we play from now until the end of time.

Lolll.

I was ACTUALLY trying to SK-hunt with that post. Of course I'd say this as SK, so not sure why you (Math) are even asking me, haha.

I like Math's take on Kop, but I don't feel ready to rule him out. I'll do my own ISO at some point.

UNVOTE: for now

I'll volunteer to look at fitz more closely. I've looked at Una's ISO too much and would rather trust my opinion from yesterday (that SK!Una is possible) until proven otherwise.

[Mathdino]

yeah okay so SK is probably in {fitz, Hawk, Impede} then

i'm betting one of them is either PR or is PR-confirmed town

so even if you guys do lynch me we can still win this pretty sure

feel free to do a una case though

[havingfitz]

AFK all evening for RL.

Will catch up on this day in the morning.

[Impede]

- People who might've felt threatened by A50 and Ghostslot.

Think about this for a sec. Ghost was replaced. No one would kill her based on what she said. It would be based on suspecting her as a PR. And I can’t get out of A50 WIFOM. Really hard to discern real SK motive in that kill.

[Mathdino]

You're correct. I realised it after I said that but I didn't feel it worth correcting. I see a lot of overnight replacements killed just because they're a widely townread wildcard. It's even happened to a me-slot.

The problem is that I widely broadcasted that Ghost might have an innocent on sheep (given that she hypohid behind sheep), followed by sheep flipping town.

The SK likely didn't consider that Ghost could've actually been the hider, or just didn't care.

[Mathdino]

Wait okay but Ghost then claimed she'd hypohide behind Una. Una-SK would be absolutely fucked if Ghost were the hider anyway. So from his perspective, it's safer to just assume she's not a hider and is instead some other PR.

So that directly implicates Una, against my reads

NKA gives me a headache. Talk to me about our lynch options.