Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)


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Post Post #1525 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:55 pm

Post by davesaz »


Official vote count 6.2

No Lynch (3) - Almost50, texcat, Something_Smart
Not voting (1) - Shadpearl

No Lynch has been chosen, night 6 begins now.
Night may end early, if all actions are submitted and locked in. Please include an "ok to end night" in your action if you want short night.



(expired on 2018-05-01 18:00:00)
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Post Post #1526 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:16 am

Post by davesaz »

Morning comes, and two emerge. One confident and one not so confident.

"So you were telling the truth?"
"Yes. Do you want to just leave?"
"Don't need to ask me twice!"

The final townie took off running, leaving the Mafia victorious.

Almost50
,
Town Elemental Doctor
, was killed N6.
texcat,
Elemental Serial Killer
, was killed N6.
shadpearl,
Vanilla Townie
, was endgamed.

The
mafia team
of Something_Smart, profii, and JaydragonKing have won!
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Post Post #1527 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:28 am

Post by Taly »

Sigh.

I had a whole post ready to launch against
Something_Smart
because I thought
texcat
and
Almost50
would be NKed N5.

Spoiler: My Post If D6 Mylo Was: Me, Shadpearl, Something_Smart
Ugh... This is my nightmare scenario.

On one hand; there's
Shadpearl
, who self-voted himself to L-1, and debatably, would have gamethrown if he were SK. Normally, this makes
me think
Shadpearl
is near conftown, but
Shadpearl
is new to the site and the rules here; so I wouldn't be surprised if he thought
a self-vote did not conflict with an SK wincon.

Sigh... Me entertaining
Shadpearl-SK
sounds dumb at this point... But I've been so wrong with my reads post-D3 that I'm just lost...

On the other hand, there's
Something_Smart
, who's slot is borderline fucking unreadable because theres FOUR people replacing in/out of
that slot. Individually,
S_S
has literally been available D4 and D5, but has provided 0 insight into this game.

I townblocc'ed them both thinking I just about solved the game.
Nobody I was suspecting D4 and D5 gave me a reason to think they were town.

With that said, it's been 2 days, and I'm still a bit frustrated and confused to see
havingfitz
flip town. :/

I genuinely feel the blame for mislynching
Kopherald and havingfitz
, but I have no clue how they thought they were responding town-like to their pressure. I've been very clear with my thought process, and nobody except
Almost50
has given me worthwhile engagement since D3. Yes, I'll go as far as to say that
Almost50
and I have really been the only pro-town people in this game since then.
Ausuka
to a lesser degree, but still. :/

I've made myself. Very. Clear. On. My. Stance.

And most everyone really gave me nothing beyond
"this argument is not compellling," or "this person you scumread, I think is towny"
.

Something_Smart
, you've made it known that you didn't find any scumvibes from
havingfitz or Kopherald
, but you never combated the wagon or idea of lynching them. -_- You say you're good at townhunting but you've replaced in late-game and have made no assertion of scum at all. Even when you "accepted" the townbloc, you never pushed
texcat
, and you never batted an eyelash
Shadpearl's
way, assuming you truly believed
havingfitz and Kopherald
were town. Your reads and view of the game are vague, and you had plenty of time to read through this thread to come to a semblance of your reads.

I'm having a hard time seeing
Shadpearl
killing
Jaydragonking or texcat
.

But I can definitely see
Mathdino
killing
Jaydragonking
, especially since he started D2 fucking voting me based off the idea I
"distanced"
myself from
JaydragonKing
. Also,
S_S
, I can see you saving your NK to take out
scum!texcat
. -_- You scumread her, I'm guessing, but you didn't do anything about it.

VOTE: Something_Smart

Time to gamble.


~


I can tell I'm likely going to be mislynched here, to that, I say I tried to gamesolve in this game, and I was just inaccurate. Sorry
town.

If I'm wrong on
Something_Smart
and I'm basically the sole reason town loses this game, then I don't know what to say, honestly. I've
ran multiple scenarios through my head and this is the closest thing I can come to a conclusion.


My efforts seemed to have gone to waste.

Almost50
was the only person engaging with me post-D3 much at all... I
WANT
to feel bad for mislynching
Kopherald and havingfitz
, but I had no reason to townread them based on their gameplay.

Something_Smart
did well.

And for the record; I
DID
originally push
Doomfeathers
D1, and would've cased against
Mathdino
had he not replaced out.

This was a fun game, thank you again for modding
Davesaz
! :D

...But I'm conflicted from feeling like I played horribly, and feeling like I played
more pro-town
than most of the town playerlist.
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Post Post #1528 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:29 am

Post by Taly »

ehhh... I'm not without fault either.

I began sucking progressively more since D2.
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Post Post #1529 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:32 am

Post by Ausuka »

At least shadpearl technically survived.

GG, and well done to the mafia (and texcat, who made it very far as the SK.)
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
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Post Post #1530 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:34 am

Post by Taly »

Yeah, I'm surprised. I though
texcat
was the Mafia and
Something_Smart
was the SK.

Texcat
, did you really think I was Mafia?... I'm not sure why you didn't shoot
Shadpearl
or
Something_Smart
to try and take out the last mafia.
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Post Post #1531 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:52 am

Post by Something_Smart »

LUV and Mathdino definitely did most of the legwork but I'm glad I didn't let their efforts go to waste :P

GG, it was fun playing with you guys for the brief time I was here. And yeah, texcat surviving as far as she did was very impressive (and scary).
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Post Post #1532 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:54 am

Post by Creature »

When it's 2:1:1 always lynch town
Sigh
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Post Post #1533 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:01 am

Post by Taly »

In post 1532, Creature wrote:When it's 2:1:1 always lynch town
I... can actually see this working, and this may be the only time I'd ever self-vote. Forcing the killers to take their chances on shooting a Doctor or kill each other would've been great.

Even without a doctor, it would've been interesting.

Though, I'm not sure if town would've auto-lost at 1:1:1, leading to an SK-Mafia draw.

~


Can the Mafia PT and Night Actions list be sent?
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"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
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Post Post #1534 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:06 am

Post by Creature »

Love the 1:1:1 dilemma.
Sigh
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Post Post #1535 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:07 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I'd be fine with releasing the mafia topic; I put some interesting theory in there.

Creature's probably right, but there are defenses I could have used. Town and SK would want to lynch town which would benefit them while harming mafia; however, I could promise to shoot town if town is hung (since I can't win anyway), which would disincentivize town from doing it.
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Post Post #1536 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:10 am

Post by davesaz »

I thought Something_Smart's post to texcat was too much of a gamble. The obvious thing to do as SK would be shoot the revealed Mafia and hope they chose the same element. With the SK still guessing at Mafia, I think the straightforward play there is to let the SK's shot go wild and win immediately if the elements don't match. Which is ultimately what happened anyway -- not sure why texcat chose A50 in the end.

Pedit: Can't remember if I said PT will be released without approval or if I need to ask first..

Night 1 actions
Sando tracks Aneninen
Almost50 Docs JaydragonKing with Fire
JimmyUrineMoneyShot Docs Taly with Earth
Lalendra Docs Kopherald with Fire
texcat kills JaydragonKing with Earth
Mafia -- profii kills Lalendra with water

Night 2 actions
LUV kills Aneninen with Fire
texcat kills Aneninen with Earth
Sando tracks havingfitz
Almost50 protects Taly from Fire

Night 3 actions
A50 protects Taly from Water
Sando tracks Ausuka
texcat kills Sando with Water
Something_Smart kills Creature with Earth

Night 4 actions
A50 protects Taly from Water
texcat kills Taly with Water (fails)
Something_Smart kills Ausuka with Earth

Night 5 actions
Something_Smart kills texcat with water -- fails (bp)
A50 protects Something_Smart from fire
texcat kills Taly with earth

Night 6 actions
Something_Smart kills texcat with Water
A50 protects texcat from Earth
texcat kills A50 with Earth
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Post Post #1537 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:11 am

Post by Taly »

LOL WOW.

I was protected every night except for N5.

I have no clue why
Almost50
protected
Something_Smart
though.
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Post Post #1538 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:17 am

Post by Creature »

In post 1536, davesaz wrote:N6
A50 protects texcat from Earth
???
Sigh
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Post Post #1539 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:19 am

Post by Taly »

I'm not sure why
Sando
suspected
havingfitz
if he got no result N2.

Was it to ward off the idea he was a tracker? Or was it because he thought
havingfitz
just didn't make the kill?
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Post Post #1540 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1538, Creature wrote:
In post 1536, davesaz wrote:N6
A50 protects texcat from Earth
???
This was actually right, and I didn't think A50 would realize, as noted in the PT. If he picks the same element as me then my win chance drops to zero, and town and texcat split the difference.

Also dave, texcat couldn't shoot me because I outed her, so even if she had lived she'd have been lynched for sure.
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Post Post #1541 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:42 am

Post by Something_Smart »

It's kinda neat how A50 protected someone who was attacked three times, once on a target from each faction... and the only one it succeeded on was the town one.
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Post Post #1542 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:10 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 1532, Creature wrote:When it's 2:1:1 always lynch town
Like the two scums are gonna let us.

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Post Post #1543 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:16 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 1537, Taly wrote:LOL WOW.

I was protected every night except for N5.

I have no clue why
Almost50
protected
Something_Smart
though.
Cuz I'm stupid?? :lol:

And I should've stuck with WATER on N6. Now that would've been interesting (gets us exactly where Creature wanted it to be: 1-1-1)

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Post Post #1544 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:18 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 1538, Creature wrote:
In post 1536, davesaz wrote:N6
A50 protects texcat from Earth
???
See the post above. The plan was for S_S to shoot tex and tex shoot me. If I could have saved tex then we would be in a 1:1:1 scenario.

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Post Post #1545 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:19 am

Post by Mathdino »

talk about taking one for the team

i shot lalendra because she was a doc

i thought A50 was a doc actually but i wanted to leave him alive for paranoia

had i stayed in the slot i would've shot him the next night i think
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Post Post #1546 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:20 am

Post by Taly »

Or like.

S_S
doesn't shoot.

And we all happily-tied-ever-after.
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"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
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Post Post #1547 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:24 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 1541, Something_Smart wrote:It's kinda neat how A50 protected someone who was attacked three times, once on a target from each faction... and the only one it succeeded on was the town one.
Dino can tell you I have a good instinct about whom to protect. He can also testify to the fact it often
backfires
on town anyway. :lol:

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Post Post #1548 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:24 am

Post by Something_Smart »

As soon as the mafia topic is opened, you can see why I decided not to go for the happy ever after. There was no way to establish trust so that neither texcat not I could deviate for personal gain. The plan I established was Nash-equilibrium-esque in that regard.

(Also re: Almost50, I was never actually aiming for doc but if I had I would have probably hit texcat which would have been very helpful. Creature shot was aiming for tracker, other two were aiming for SK.)
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Post Post #1549 (ISO) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:26 am

Post by Almost50 »

Like, if I was a FULL Doctor I would have saved 3 kills, but then that would have saved a Mafioso on D1. I wish I could've saved texcat on N6 still though.

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