Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[Almost50]

Also, I greatly encourage you to protect yourself tonight,

Almost50

Idgaf if

texcat

sees this.

The probability of my mislynch is much lower if you're alive as well, and we cannot afford a mislynch tomorrow even if we are correct today.

I don't know if I can self-target. It never occurred for me to ask. And chances are I'm going to be pick the wrong element anyway.

[Almost50]

And you're virtually an IC, and we're going into 4p mylo most likely tomorrow.

With 1 scum in 4 living players it is best to NL. One of S_S and Shad will be NK'd, so it's easier for the other to see the light.

@Mod: You won't be confirming anything at this point, so I might as well ask here: Can Doctors self-target in this setup?

[Taly]

I'm good with a NL at 4p mylo - that will shed some more clarity on the playerlist, even though I have an extremely strong idea on who's the last of the scumteam.

((Which, is not a secret.))

I'm just having flashbacks to the games where I played hard, caught scum and got lynched in lylo/mylo as town, and lost:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=64408

((Pegged scumduo here, but was hammered by town))

viewtopic.php?p=6792063&user_select%5B% ... 6#p6792063

((Pegged 1 scum here))

It just bothers me because I'm least likely to be NKed.

Literally, most of my town-losses are connected to surviving to MYLO, and more likely being mislynched than catching/missing scum.

So if I make it to 3p, I'm probably going to be WIFOMed to high hell.

~

I'll wait for

Mod

to answer question and, preferably,

Shadpearl

to post before I hammer.

[davesaz]

Generally speaking, unless otherwise specified roles cannot self-target.
The roles in this game don't have that capability specified.

[Taly]

viewtopic.php?p=6792063&user_select%5B% ... 6#p6792063

((Pegged 1 scum here))

You guys can save me my dignity and not read this game; I was excruciatingly terrible here in hindsight and this was when I was getting out of my

"noob"

stages.

If you do read this game, get ready for massive cringing.

~

Almost50

, you can do what you're most comfortable with, but I think you staying alive is best for town.

~

Eugh... I'm feeling a little impatient, I want

Shadpearl

to post so the townbloc can ALL be on the same wavelength, but there's nothing happening right now.

People are just waiting on me or

Something_Smart

to hammer.

[Taly]

D5

- Lynch

havingfitz

D6

- NL or Lynch

texcat

D7

- Lynch

texcat

?

[Almost50]

Almost50, you can do what you're most comfortable with, but I think you staying alive is best for town.

There's nothing I can do about it. I simply canNOT target myself, so it's up to texcat.

P.S. Are you hammering his yet?

[Taly]

I'll hammer after I eat and shower. LOL...

That's about as much time I'm willing to give at this point for anyone to say "no" to anything about this gamestate/plan.

[Almost50]

I'll just protect you again. FTR, one of the reasons why I TR Taly is this: I have been protecting him for 3 nights now, and there bwas only one kill on N2 & N4, so there is a good chance I saved him at least once.

[Taly]

I fucking love you

A50

[Taly]

VOTE: havingfitz

[davesaz]

Official Vote Count 5.3

havingfitz (2) - texcat, Shadpearl, Almost50, Taly {LYNCH}

Not voting (2) - havingfitz, Something_Smart

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch

havingfitz was lynched, and is revealed to be

Vanilla Townie

Night begins now, send in actions please.

(expired on 2018-04-28 21:30:00)

[davesaz]

The next day starts, and you have find one person missing.
Tally has been killed, he was

Vanilla Townie

.

Not voting (4) - Something_Smart, texcat, Shadpearl, Almost50

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch

(expired on 2018-05-12 21:30:00)

[Almost50]

VOTE: No Lynch

[texcat]

Lynching scum today leaves it 2-1 and practically guarantees the other scum a win (unless Almost gets very lucky).

Lynching town today doesn't seem like it can be right, but leaves it at 1-2 with the scum trying to shoot each other over night. If they succeed, a townie is the last man standing.

No lynch makes it 2-2 over night, but it still seems like the scum will need to shoot each other, and it gives us more chance of survival.

VOTE: No lynch

[davesaz]

Answering some questions which were asked privately -- the setup doesn't say, so gotta go with what seems logical.

Three phases (day or night) of No-lynch no-kill results in a draw between the living factions.
Mafia and SK (no town) going into night, the night plays out. If both survive the night, then it's a Mafia/SK draw with town losing.

[davesaz]

Missed a question. If everyone dies there is no winner.

[Something_Smart]

Okay. Let me preface this by saying that multiball lategames are crazy and often depend on mind games. However, I'm attempting to drop the mind games as much as possible and just turn this into a probability game. I ran the numbers, and I'm confident that this is the right move.

I am the last mafia, and texcat is the SK. I shot texcat last night (and she was never shot before then). I will be shooting her again tonight.

Texcat, it is in your best interest to kill Almost50 tonight.

If you don't trust my math, feel free to run it yourself. But these are the win probabilities in this scenario, and they're the best you're gonna get.

First of all, after two attacks, the probability of you dying is 4/9, the probability of you surviving with no vest is 4/9, and the probability of you surviving with your vest is 1/9.

Town win:

30%

For town to win, I need to take off your vest but not kill you in the first two nights, and then kill you in the third. The probability of the former is 4/9, and the probability of the latter is 2/3, making town's total win probability (4/9) * (2/3) = 8/27 = 30%.

Mafia win:

44%

For me to win, I need to take off your vest in the first night and kill you in the second. The probability of this is 4/9 = 44%.

SK win:

26%

For you to win, I need to EITHER take off your vest but not kill you in the first two nights and then fail to kill you in the third OR fail to take off your vest at all in the first two nights. The probability of the former is (4/9) * (1/3) = 4/27 and the probability of the latter is 1/9, making your total win probability 4/27 + 1/9 = 7/27 = 26%.

If you kill me, it is a town win guaranteed, either by crosskill or because A50 and Shadpearl can lynch you tomorrow. If you kill nobody (killing Shadpearl either counts as killing nobody or killing A50 depending on whether he saves her), then you have basically no chance to win as I will just keep shooting at you until you die.

VOTE: No Lynch

May the odds be ever in your favor.

[Something_Smart]

Also:

Request accelerated night

[Almost50]

DAFUQ?! So I was fucking RIGHT about Doom. The town practically handed scum the win (whichever of them) once again because you're fucking terrible and you only like to mislynch.

Like, I started the game with a fierce attack on Doom (Math, LUV & S_S slot) and have been on texcat for the whole game and nobody ever wanted to listen to me when I was the only publicly confirmed townie around (some even kept suspecting my confirmed status to begin with).

And then you fucking wonder why I don't care to work my ass off in an attempt to solve games? It's because I am fed up with town players being stupid and skeptical about TOWN reads and wishes, but they have no problem following the directions of the SCUM players.

I'm not protecting anyone tonight.

[Something_Smart]

I'm sorry A50, I thought you played really well and got saddled with a couple of weak townies at a time where that was really harmful. Multiball games can be really punishing in that regard. And I feel bad for Taly too who clearly was really trying to the point where it made him obvtown, and even led correctly on texcat until havingfitz's disappearance got him lynched instead.

Even still, all the factions have a non-negligible chance to win. And I do kind of like that about this setup because like I said it does remove the mind games because it lets us all be honest with our actions without determining the result of the game.

[Something_Smart]

And I do think Math played really well until he angleshot himself in the foot

[Almost50]

Mate, you don't need to be sorry. You (and your predecessors) played for your win con fair and square. My peeve is on the TOWN players who let DOOM get away with his play on D1 and even turned it against me, and -as that wasn't enough- they let texcat (who deserves to win too, because it's not her fault people are blind) get away with playing to her scum meta (I don't know how to explain that. I just know that this is scum!texcat). The more I think about it I guess my one and only mistake was pushing Flavor Leaf. My excuse is Golden Paradox had already destroyed that slot before he replaced out.

You know what? I'll just shut up so I won't aggravate the situation, but it really gets to me that town players (in general.. all over the site) almost always side by the scum-motivated cases rather than the town ones even when they are both equally as bad/good.

[Something_Smart]

It's not that I'm sorry about what

I

did, I just feel sorry for

you

.

Although not gonna lie, I thought there was a decent chance that you were VT for a while as well, but I downplayed that so it wouldn't look as suspicious if I managed to shoot the real doc (who I thought was probably texcat if it wasn't you).

[Almost50]

I thought there was a decent chance that you were VT for a while as well

And that was the point of my claim, tbh. People who know me know well I could very well fake PR as VT and vise versa, and I was counting on there being someone who knows me in the scum team.