Open 723: Purgatory! (Hell Phase 3)

[RC most awesomest]

I mean. I'll probably avoid you in future games because I think we both feel like our wincons require us to do things that are mutually compatible as town.

But I think that's just us being incompatible and that doesn't extend to be me disliking you or anything

[Invisibility]

VOTE: ruru
If it's what ruru wants

[ruru]

AP > Hiraki/N_M > RC/teacher > Invis?

Also this is scumminess not lynch order

D3 AP hell

AP green (4:2) -> Invis heaven

Invis red (4:1) -> Hiraki hell
Hiraki green (3:1) -> teacher heaven
teacher green (2:1) -> RC hell

Invis green (3:2) -> Hiraki hell
Hiraki green (2:2) -> RC hell

Does this work

[ruru]

I mean. I'll probably avoid you in future games because I think we both feel like our wincons require us to do things that are mutually compatible as town.

But I think that's just us being incompatible and that doesn't extend to be me disliking you or anything

Totally understandable

[RC most awesomest]

I'm not especially enthusiastic about most things on your lynch order

Where does Alchemist21 fit into everything?

[ruru]

Oh that's also a player hmm

[RC most awesomest]

1) I don't want to lynch AP tomorrow. I'm not especially scumreading them, I really think Oxy was scum and Hiraki's entrance felt extremely pockety of me + never wanting that slot to go to endgame so that's who I want down tomorrow.

2) I don't understand why you're putting me in front of Teacher and Alchemist. Are you really scumreading me over them or are you just refusing to let me get to endgame on a principle thing?

3) I am not enthusiastic about sheeping your preordained lynch order in general regardless of your being conftown I am still more confident in my own ability to solve the game + I get access to boatloads more information in the days to come.

4) I am extremely wary of the fact that people were pushing for Invisibility to be JDed over yourself. I'm not sure that makes him scum but I'm not enthusiastic about testing it.

[ruru]

1) I don't want to lynch AP tomorrow. I'm not especially scumreading them, I really think Oxy was scum and Hiraki's entrance felt extremely pockety of me + never wanting that slot to go to endgame so that's who I want down tomorrow.

Yeah I didn't like Hiraki's entrance either

2) I don't understand why you're putting me in front of Teacher and Alchemist. Are you really scumreading me over them or are you just refusing to let me get to endgame on a principle thing?

I guess on individual scumminess I put Alchemist in between Hiraki (scummier) and N_M (townier)

I agree with you atm that Hiraki's slot is scummy but I think lynching you becomes more interesting in the cases where he flips green

3) I am not enthusiastic about sheeping your preordained lynch order in general regardless of your being conftown I am still more confident in my own ability to solve the game + I get access to boatloads more information in the days to come.

I wasn't asking you to sheep me in case it wasn't clear. I don't have nearly that high an opinion of my own reads, it's just what I'm thinking about at the moment

4) I am extremely wary of the fact that people were pushing for Invisibility to be JDed over yourself. I'm not sure that makes him scum but I'm not enthusiastic about testing it.

Interesting

Who do you think is a better candidate, other than you?

[RC most awesomest]

ngl I think AP is town

I'm not 100% sure they'd be my first pick for heaven but they're up there if oxy is town

[ruru]

So if Hiraki or N_M flips green, we can more confidently send Invis to heaven

Why is AP town

[Alchemist21]

Sorry for my absence so far. Real life got in my way, but now I should be able to give this game my proper attention.

First off, I still need tl read through but I came on and first thing I see is that we're in Heaven phase already. What happened to move the game so quickly?

[RC most awesomest]

Me and NSG have a very different view of the progression of this game than you do though, and neither of us are in any rush to play our cards though so

So if Hiraki or N_M flips green, we can more confidently send Invis to heaven

Why is AP town

I honestly can't put anything to it besides gut. It's less a specific townread on him and more that I have to ask myself what scum are doing if Hiraki isn't scum.

First off, I still need tl read through but I came on and first thing I see is that we're in Heaven phase already. What happened to move the game so quickly?

duck was obvscum and got lynched, basically?

[Alchemist21]

Hell Phase 1. You may begin voting for your candidate for HELL. Deadline for a lynch is (expired on 2018-05-20 16:00:00). If a lynch isn't reached, compulsive plurality lynch takes place. Have fun everybody!

Hell Phase 1 Vote Count:
Invisibility - 1 - UglyDuck
teacher - 0 -
Oxy - 0 -
RC most awesomest - 1 - Oxy
Alchemist21 - 0 -

UglyDuck

- 5 - ruru, teacher, RC most awesomest, Invisibility, Not_Mafia
Not_Mafia - 0 -
AP - 0 -
ruru - 0 -

Not Voting: Alchemist21, AP

With 9 Alive, 5 to Lynch,

italicized

name in the list of who is being voted indicates who would be lynched come plurality ruling.

UglyDuck, a

Mafia Goon

, has been sent to HELL!

Searching for a replacement for Oxy

This is a good start, and looking at how this wagin went down might be the best way for me to jump into this game. Since this setup basically has a white flag element to it everyone on the ugly duck wagon is starting out as a Townlean to me.

And I'll look at Oxy to see why they voted elsewhere.

[ruru]

I honestly can't put anything to it besides gut. It's less a specific townread on him and more that I have to ask myself what scum are doing if Hiraki isn't scum.

So let's say you lynch Hiraki tomorrow (which I agree with now) and he flips green

Is AP still townier than Invis?

[RC most awesomest]

Actually I'll put this into writing while you're still here

there's basically 3 categories of people wrt Duck

There's the people who actively resisted it to some extent (Oxy/Hiraki & AP)
There's the people who make sense on either side of the spectrum (N_M, Alchemist, Teacher) -note that order matters
There's the people who actively pushed it (Myself, Ruru, Invisibility)

The categories don't cover everything but like

I actually don't think Hiraki/Invisibility, for example, are ever paired simply because I think that if one scum busses the rest don't usually actually fight the wagon, particularly in a setup like this

So let's say you lynch Hiraki tomorrow (which I agree with now) and he flips green

Is AP still townier than Invis?

Yes because like unless he's scum with like NM there's no partners that really make sense like if the scumteam were bussing why doesn't he just hop on kinda deal
Whereas invisibility makes sense with basically any of the remaining players
it's really rare to see one scummate bus and another hard oppose and in a 3 player setup especially I think scum would be generally doing the same thing

the most likely AP scum universe to me is actually the one where he's scum with Hiraki and scum just didn't want to let duck go

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: Ugly Duck

@mod please replace me

@mod please replace me

forgot bold

Noticed that slot is getting replaced and so I checked for where it was, and it's sketchy as fuck that the dude replaced out immediately after that hammer vote. Like it almost seems too obvious and there's a lot of posts to look at from them, but I really don't like the timing of it.

[ruru]

I actually don't think Hiraki/Invisibility, for example, are ever paired

If this is true then there might be a case for flipping N_M tomorrow and sending Invis to heaven if N_M is green, because N_M was the only other player advocating Invis to heaven I think?

Yes because like unless he's scum with like NM there's no partners that really make sense like if the scumteam were bussing why doesn't he just hop on kinda deal

Whereas invisibility makes sense with basically any of the remaining players
it's really rare to see one scummate bus and another hard oppose and in a 3 player setup especially I think scum would be generally doing the same thing

It's hard for me to take your word on this being likely or unlikely without knowing your alignment although at the same time I kinda don't see you making this argument as scum if you know it's wrong? Hmm

I would think scum would often want to split 2:1 (because random voting is most likely to split 2:1) and less commonly 3:0, specifically to stop VCA

Is there any theoretical reason why you think scum should play differently, or is just empirical?

the most likely AP scum universe to me is actually the one where he's scum with Hiraki and scum just didn't want to let duck go

This feels unlikely to me now that you mention it

[Alchemist21]

If this isn't the lynch today, I will replace out because fuck playing with someone like this.

Wait is this actually the supposed reason for their replace-out? Not sure how I feel about it tbh. It mitigates the scumminess if that replace out a bit but I'd need to check what the vc was at the time of this post.

As a side question, was Oxy known to be an alt? Their tone strikes me as someone trying to alter their speech pattern, which isn't especially scummy in it's own but it would be better to know if the tone in their posts is their natural tone (if they're not an alt) or if I should just disregard the tone entirely.

[ruru]

It's hard for me to take your word on this being likely or unlikely without knowing your alignment although at the same time I kinda don't see you making this argument as scum if you know it's wrong? Hmm

I would think scum would often want to split 2:1 (because random voting is most likely to split 2:1) and less commonly 3:0, specifically to stop VCA

Is there any theoretical reason why you think scum should play differently, or is just empirical?

Actually I think I understand. If they're bothering to bus d1 but split 1:1 then there's a major risk of autolosing if town decides to lynch off-wagon

Hmm

[Alchemist21]

Okay, I'm comfortable town binning ruru.

@ruru That situation does bring up an interesting point, though. Thoughts on the following?

If we end up in 4:3, meaning 1 town in heaven and 1 in hell, and we mislynch, we will be at 3:3 JD with 1 town in heaven.

In that scenario, it's up to that single player to correctly scum hunt.

If we mislynch today, I think we should try to send the best scum hunter to heaven, presuming we aren't strongly town reading them.

Candidates include: AP, NM (if a town tell for nm is having good reads, he must be a decent scum hunter), and... NSG/RC

Continuing my previous hypothetical,
NSG/RC (assuming a town read on nsg) is probably the ideal candidate for a heaven vote since they are the only slot that has two strong players that can bounce ideas off one another.

But then he put the RC slot as a candidate for Heaven? And on the basis of the slot having good scumhunters...

One of the other things that stuck out about Oxy in prior posts was that they were so combatant with RC, and they apparently had some familiarity with them, but I wasn't sure if that was just personality clash or scum trying to attack a potentially strong Town slot. It's looking like the latter here.

[Maruchan]

Maruchan can you confirm this please?

No. If we lynch two scum to hell the game is over.

if there are two scum in hell the game is over and town have won.

[RC most awesomest]

It's hard for me to take your word on this being likely or unlikely without knowing your alignment although at the same time I kinda don't see you making this argument as scum if you know it's wrong? Hmm

I would think scum would often want to split 2:1 (because random voting is most likely to split 2:1) and less commonly 3:0, specifically to stop VCA

Is there any theoretical reason why you think scum should play differently, or is just empirical?

Actually I think I understand. If they're bothering to bus d1 but split 1:1 then there's a major risk of autolosing if town decides to lynch off-wagon

Hmm

Basically if one of them is going to bus the lynch is going to go through often enough so why not have both of them take towncred or at least not defend it to the point of being lynched after

[Alchemist21]

Also another thing, most of their posts up to that point were either bickering over PL stuff or some setup spec. I've seen little in terms of actual scumhunting from that slot.

[RC most awesomest]

But then he put the RC slot as a candidate for Heaven? And on the basis of the slot having good scumhunters...

One of the other things that stuck out about Oxy in prior posts was that they were so combatant with RC, and they apparently had some familiarity with them, but I wasn't sure if that was just personality clash or scum trying to attack a potentially strong Town slot. It's looking like the latter here.

I also got secret alt who knows more than he's saying vibes from Oxy ftr.

[ruru]

I could be getting manipulated and AP could be scum with you, but I agree on Hiraki+Invis being unlikely

I'm starting to think N_M is the best flip