Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!

Eragon
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Post Post #2425  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:41 pm

I think Tora was scummy after that hammer, by I don’t see why Tora would kill reundo other for than this exact reason, WIFOM

So I’m not sure if the scum is (Tora/irrelelphant)

If ireelephant is scum they honestly deserves this game

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Post Post #2426  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:42 pm

Votecount 5.01

Not voting: Eragon, Irrelephant11, Nauci, Toranaga

The deadline for Day 5 is 11:54 am CT on Thursday, October 25, in (expired on 2018-10-25 12:54:10).

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Post Post #2427  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:50 pm

I’ll be able to respond to thugs at lunch and do ISOS on the bus

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Post Post #2428  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:00 pm

Oh good I was gonna be so paranoid about Nauci if she wasn't watcher
Here's hoping she made the amazing decision to watch Reundo

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Post Post #2429  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:28 pm

so it's one of you two? lmao

fuck what now

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Post Post #2430  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:31 pm

we hope nauci watched reundo lol

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Post Post #2431  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:41 pm

I only have to clear one of you

how hard can that be

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Post Post #2432  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:06 pm

In post 2425, Eragon wrote:I think Tora was scummy after that hammer, by I don’t see why Tora would kill reundo other for than this exact reason, WIFOM

So I’m not sure if the scum is (Tora/irrelelphant)

If ireelephant is scum they honestly deserves this game


killing reundo works for scum!me too. not only because it creates WIFOM, but also because trying to kill the watcher will either create another watcher (who could have been reundo even) or out me as scum if I get it wrong. imagine I'm working with a POE of you/irrel/nauci for watcher. if I kill nauci and irrel is watcher, he is likely watching her, and vice versa. if I kill you and you're the watcher, we'll have a new inno today which could be reundo and I'm running against nauci/irrel who are townier than I am.

it works even better for you of course, and works perfectly for irrel. if irrel is scum, this is the play. he can't target nauci on the risk of getting outed for it, and he is the most townread slot out of everyone alive so he doesn't need the reundo mislynch.

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Post Post #2433  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:12 pm

I never scumread anything irrelephant did and think his attitude both around the keyser lynch, pushing me for my hammer, and today after the reveal are genuine

I was strong scumreading eragon through most of d2. I'll revisit those posts this gameday.

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Post Post #2434  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:19 pm

In post 385, Dunnstral wrote:tinfoil theory: Eragon is scum and his partner(s) felt the need to welcome him in thread to try to seem like they're not talking in pt

Not a serious theory jsut something to consider I guess

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Post Post #2435  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:19 pm

would dunn dump this brick of WIFOM itt when eragon is scum and volxen literally welcomed him to the thread?

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Post Post #2436  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:26 pm

check the post numbers so you can see how the wagons progressed

In post 395, Flicker wrote:Votecount 1.13

Sesq (5) - Dunnstral , northsidegal , the worst , volxen , Ausuka
volxen (3) - Reundo , Sesq , Keyser Söze
Keyser Söze (1) - Huntress
Toranaga (1) - Irrelephant11
Huntress (1) - Eragon

Not voting: Toranaga

The deadline for Day 1 is 1:52 pm CT on Tuesday, September 4, in (expired on 2018-09-04 14:51:53).


In post 411, Flicker wrote:Votecount 1.14

volxen (6) - Reundo , Sesq , Keyser Söze , Toranaga , the worst , Ausuka
Sesq (3) - Dunnstral , northsidegal , volxen
Keyser Söze (1) - Huntress
Toranaga (1) - Irrelephant11
Huntress (1) - Eragon

Not voting: N/A

The deadline for Day 1 is 1:52 pm CT on Tuesday, September 4, in (expired on 2018-09-04 14:51:53).

Mod notes
    - @Keyser Soze: The deadline in this vote count and the first post of the thread are both current and accurate.

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Post Post #2437  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:27 pm

missed volxen's colour

I'm the only one that knows now volxen was NOT bussed d1

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Post Post #2438  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:30 pm

Eh Eragon was all "volxen is the play nobody change your votes" at EOD and I offered to hammer
Regardless of which of us is scum volxen was at least bussed in word if not in deed

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Post Post #2439  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:20 pm

I am the worst watcher ever

Scum you have outplayed me so hard

I am so sorry guys T_T

I watched Eragon last night thinking there's no way scum would take out the best bet of a mislynch

But I should have guessed because they've been taking out almost every single top mislynch opportunity the whole game

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Post Post #2440  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:22 pm

Welp
Here we are
I literally don't know where to begin

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Post Post #2441  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:23 pm

Last scum was much more scared of watcher guilty than of being figured out by town though

However

Kudos because with everyone's tunneling out of the way this should be just the most fascinating last day

KEYSER I'M SORRY

My top suspect for now is Irrelephant11 and I'll try to get to ISOs before end of week.

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Post Post #2442  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:26 pm

I'm ISOing myself for clues :giggle:

In post 1043, Irrelephant11 wrote:Hmmm: Volxen never has any interaction from his side with the Kop[Eragon] slot or Dunnstral, except to welcome Eragon to the game. I think this is mostly meaningless for Eragon, less certain on what it means for Dunnstral, who actively tried to shift people off the volxen wagon early on.


This might be a clue

pedit: I wonder if scum knew that Nauci would think it was me here
ftr Nauci there's no way scum!me takes you to mylo

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Post Post #2443  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:40 pm

Spoiler: was hoping nsg could solve this from the grave but she made good points about both
In post 1684, northsidegal wrote:eragon scum being based off of how dunnstral came at me when i noted the punctuation thing about kop in much the same way that he only really showed up to attack the people scumreading volxen

ducky scum being based off of potential overconfidence in volxen's scumflip and maybe the eragon wagon / position on dunnstral day two (obviously given town!eragon if ducky!scum)

toranaga scum being based off of just my own personal scumread, as well as i guess the really weird way that his dunnstral read flipped like 10 times during the first few days of Day 2

In post 1686, northsidegal wrote:dang, will i have to give up my pet scumread of toranaga? we only have 3 lynches left really

In post 1687, northsidegal wrote:or maybe i should be more realistic about eragon not being scum because of his position as dunn's counterwagon?

In post 1693, northsidegal wrote:yeah content wise i really don't think it's eragon, my only reason for thinking he would be scum would be the kop thing

so yeah, probably not him

In post 1700, northsidegal wrote:meh

i'm stuck between looking at toranaga like a Lady Lambdadelta situation where if i don't push this scumread through then nobody else shares my read and you guys get endgamed, and just thinking that reundo might have more scum equity.

in some sense it makes sense to go for the safe play and lynch tor first if reundo will get lynched anyways without me alive, but in another, less logical and more prideful sense i would prefer to lynch scum three days in a row.

In post 1698, Eragon wrote:because I feel Reundo played a pretty good game, and would be obv. town in normal conditions.

but it seems like that should be the way for everyone

if you're saying that the only reason reundo is being scumread is because his partners got lynched already and the associatives are catching him, my scumread on him isn't really based on associatives at all. not the main parts of it, at least.

In post 1863, northsidegal wrote:
In post 1859, the worst wrote:if you're not scum who the hell is?

toranaga or you, probably

In post 1988, northsidegal wrote:assuming duck isn't twilight trolling I think my opinions have been made clear

don't get endgamed by toranaga

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Post Post #2444  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:48 pm

er, I guess this is lylo
Yeah Nauci there's a 0% chance I continually pass up the opportunity to nightkill you

Not to mention I would have had to bus both my partners which is not my style - and I definitely had my pick of who I wanted to push lynches towards both d1 and d2. You might think I'm trying to change my scum meta to avoid you catching me out but scum!me bussed one of my partners before you were even in the game

Scum!relephant gets to 8-way mylo with both partners alive and you dead, or at least 6-way with dunnstral still alive

Kinda hurt you think this is my new scum meta actually
I recognize that's AtE but it's deserved I feel


This is actually gonna be an uphill battle which is incredibly frustrating given how much work I've already put into this game
As an aside I think I scumread Toranaga's trajectory this game but there's also more points this game from Tora that seem harder to fake as scum
I don't think I have the emotional energy to work more on this right now. This is like simultaneously a fascinating and extremely disheartening endgame

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Post Post #2445  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:33 pm

In post 2432, Toranaga wrote:
In post 2425, Eragon wrote:I think Tora was scummy after that hammer, by I don’t see why Tora would kill reundo other for than this exact reason, WIFOM

So I’m not sure if the scum is (Tora/irrelelphant)

If ireelephant is scum they honestly deserves this game


killing reundo works for scum!me too. not only because it creates WIFOM, but also because trying to kill the watcher will either create another watcher (who could have been reundo even) or out me as scum if I get it wrong. imagine I'm working with a POE of you/irrel/nauci for watcher. if I kill nauci and irrel is watcher, he is likely watching her, and vice versa. if I kill you and you're the watcher, we'll have a new inno today which could be reundo and I'm running against nauci/irrel who are townier than I am.

it works even better for you of course, and works perfectly for irrel. if irrel is scum, this is the play. he can't target nauci on the risk of getting outed for it, and he is the most townread slot out of everyone alive so he doesn't need the reundo mislynch.


I didnt even think about that lmao. I agree, the "easy" kill is much more likely to come from someone in a strong TR position, unless thats what scum wants us to think. so its all WIFOM on this? i dont think we should really make notes on what the NK did, because (me/tora/Irrel) are all experience players and had an objectively good game and all are able of making WIFOM-y plugs, so i certainly wouldnt bank the game on that.

In post 2433, Toranaga wrote:I never scumread anything irrelephant did and think his attitude both around the keyser lynch, pushing me for my hammer, and today after the reveal are genuine

I was strong scumreading eragon through most of d2. I'll revisit those posts this gameday.


i agree with you about irrel, but im still going to have to inspect his posts.

In post 2436, Toranaga wrote:check the post numbers so you can see how the wagons progressed

In post 395, Flicker wrote:Votecount 1.13

Sesq (5) - Dunnstral , northsidegal , the worst , volxen , Ausuka
volxen (3) - Reundo , Sesq , Keyser Söze
Keyser Söze (1) - Huntress
Toranaga (1) - Irrelephant11
Huntress (1) - Eragon

Not voting: Toranaga

The deadline for Day 1 is 1:52 pm CT on Tuesday, September 4, in (expired on 2018-09-04 14:51:53).


In post 411, Flicker wrote:Votecount 1.14

volxen (6) - Reundo , Sesq , Keyser Söze , Toranaga , the worst , Ausuka
Sesq (3) - Dunnstral , northsidegal , volxen
Keyser Söze (1) - Huntress
Toranaga (1) - Irrelephant11
Huntress (1) - Eragon

Not voting: N/A

The deadline for Day 1 is 1:52 pm CT on Tuesday, September 4, in (expired on 2018-09-04 14:51:53).

Mod notes
    - @Keyser Soze: The deadline in this vote count and the first post of the thread are both current and accurate.


id be entirely shocked if no one bussed volxen with a vote.
So, where im at looking at the votes.
Tora was on Volxen, and #4, which is honestly one of the best spots, because its not super early and trying to get them lynched but its not so late it is apparant bussing.
My vote was still from Kop's apparant first vote??? RvS? honestly im not sure??
And if tora is scum then Irrelephant nailed you D1, but if its vice versa then Scum!Irrelephant would rather have a vanity wagon on Tora than vote volxen for towncred? i kinda feel rel would have voted Volxen or stated direct intent the way to day was ending.


In post 2438, Irrelephant11 wrote:Eh Eragon was all "volxen is the play nobody change your votes" at EOD and I offered to hammer
Regardless of which of us is scum volxen was at least bussed in word if not in deed

i agree here, but i find words are less bus-y than actual voting.

In post 2439, Nauci wrote:I am the worst watcher ever

Scum you have outplayed me so hard

I am so sorry guys T_T

I watched Eragon last night thinking there's no way scum would take out the best bet of a mislynch

But I should have guessed because they've been taking out almost every single top mislynch opportunity the whole game

its fine nauci. you have played well either way, even if this game was mostly vanilla, we all had good games.


In post 2441, Nauci wrote:Last scum was much more scared of watcher guilty than of being figured out by town though

However

Kudos because with everyone's tunneling out of the way this should be just the most fascinating last day

KEYSER I'M SORRY

My top suspect for now is Irrelephant11 and I'll try to get to ISOs before end of week.

I agree about the scare, but i dont think thats neccesarily distinguishable, because i think EVERYONE is scared of being caught by watcher going into LyLO? does that make sense?
im hoping that we can get a lot out of this day and win the game here, but it will take a lot of effort from all of us.

In post 2442, Irrelephant11 wrote:I'm ISOing myself for clues :giggle:

In post 1043, Irrelephant11 wrote:Hmmm: Volxen never has any interaction from his side with the Kop[Eragon] slot or Dunnstral, except to welcome Eragon to the game. I think this is mostly meaningless for Eragon, less certain on what it means for Dunnstral, who actively tried to shift people off the volxen wagon early on.


This might be a clue

pedit: I wonder if scum knew that Nauci would think it was me here
ftr Nauci there's no way scum!me takes you to mylo

unless you were worried about being seen by the watcher, right?
because thats the only way i ever envisioned you being lynched.
also, i believe volxen only made like 2-3 posts overall after i had replaced in? and kop only had 14 short posts, so i wouldnt see much interactions anyways?


In post 2444, Irrelephant11 wrote:er, I guess this is lylo
Yeah Nauci there's a 0% chance I continually pass up the opportunity to nightkill you

Not to mention I would have had to bus both my partners which is not my style - and I definitely had my pick of who I wanted to push lynches towards both d1 and d2. You might think I'm trying to change my scum meta to avoid you catching me out but scum!me bussed one of my partners before you were even in the game

Scum!relephant gets to 8-way mylo with both partners alive and you dead, or at least 6-way with dunnstral still alive

Kinda hurt you think this is my new scum meta actually
I recognize that's AtE but it's deserved I feel


This is actually gonna be an uphill battle which is incredibly frustrating given how much work I've already put into this game
As an aside I think I scumread Toranaga's trajectory this game but there's also more points this game from Tora that seem harder to fake as scum
I don't think I have the emotional energy to work more on this right now. This is like simultaneously a fascinating and extremely disheartening endgame


again, nauci was probably the second towniest person in the game, other than you, so i think that is also a strong watcher risk that you wouldnt be able to risk.
i wouldnt really consider bussing/defending volxen AI, especially because from what i remember you werent one of the STRONGEST pushers(please correct me if im wrong) so i dont think bussing that is that hard of a prospect from anyone's perspective.
i dont feel we should read you based on meta at all, as obviously you are a skilled enough player as town OR scum to not fit into meta.
this goes for Tora and I as well, i feel we have outgrown meta s2s.
I do feel you deserve AtE, because if you are town you played a hell of a game and if your scum you played even better, so i dont think its wrong.
im hoping i can easily clear you for some reason, but im paranoid going into this situation, and dont want to be hard-duped.
take your time catching up, i agree this is disheartening with the difficulty, but i feel we need to stand strong and push through the apathy of the last few days.

I have felt confident in this game being solved for a long time, so i admit i was very apathetic.
Going into this Endgame LyLo, with 4 great players, i am honestly happy with how this turned out, and this game was amazingly fun no matter the result, so i have good WIM for this game, and a desire to win. But Win/Lose, this game was amazing.

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Post Post #2446  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:35 pm

In post 2442, Irrelephant11 wrote:I'm ISOing myself for clues :giggle:

In post 1043, Irrelephant11 wrote:Hmmm: Volxen never has any interaction from his side with the Kop[Eragon] slot or Dunnstral, except to welcome Eragon to the game. I think this is mostly meaningless for Eragon, less certain on what it means for Dunnstral, who actively tried to shift people off the volxen wagon early on.


This might be a clue

pedit: I wonder if scum knew that Nauci would think it was me here
ftr Nauci there's no way scum!me takes you to mylo


Good point

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Post Post #2447  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:37 pm

I think I need to think about who would make this series of night kills

Btw, @remaining scum: I salute you for an absolutely impeccable game

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Post Post #2448  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:39 pm

Irrelephant11 I guess we're town block because I refuse to believe you'd let dunnstral die like that

Thinking hats on!

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Post Post #2449  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:39 pm

I extremely regret not faking watcher results

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