Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!

Toranaga
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Post Post #2475  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:07 pm

either eragon is scum and both irrelephant and nauci will get it right because they're smart players who can parse this out correctly after 100 pages of content

or

it's irrelephant and so reading eragon as scum will be tough cause eragon is not scum

but if it's irrelephant he already won cause I agree with nauci and eragon that he is the clearest player left

I'm unwilling to work more on this game but if you want me to I can try.

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Post Post #2476  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:08 pm

Votecount 5.03

Eragon (1) - Toranaga

Not voting: Eragon, Irrelephant11, Nauci

The deadline for Day 5 is 11:54 am CT on Thursday, October 25, in (expired on 2018-10-25 12:54:10).

Toranaga
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Post Post #2477  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:09 pm

so you guys do the reading, I'll sit back and enjoy not having to do that

:sunglasses:

Toranaga
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Post Post #2478  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:09 pm

who watches the watchmen?

Nauci
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Post Post #2479  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:50 pm

So while I love the possible narratives in that VCA

From my POV every night kill was the least likely watched person except n1

I kept picking targets that Keyser would have killed lol

I think that of the two, Toranaga is more likely to bus his partners and the d2 interactions had such odd timing

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Post Post #2480  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:51 pm

In post 2477, Toranaga wrote:so you guys do the reading, I'll sit back and enjoy not having to do that

:sunglasses:


So you both lock town Irrelephant11? Why?

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Post Post #2481  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:03 pm

In post 2480, Nauci wrote:
In post 2477, Toranaga wrote:so you guys do the reading, I'll sit back and enjoy not having to do that

:sunglasses:


So you both lock town Irrelephant11? Why?


you're asking me a question I already answered

I townread irrelephant the entire game. I townread everything he posts. he is not even sometimes NAI, he is straight up towny. if he is scum then fuck me, right? but it's the same as keyser soze. there's nothing scummy in irrelephant and he oozes town in several spots. his behaviour this gameday was towny, fairly suspicious and reasonable. also showing effort and will to understand what's going on, unlike eragon.

I was checking some of the vcs yesterday and he voted dunnstral a lot. votes dunn, then moves to other people, then back to dunn etc. on d1 he is interacting so much with volxen and is the one having the best ideas about it and treating volxen in the most fair way possible while maintaining he should be the lynch, while also tinfoiling reasonably about volxen being bussed while not voting volxen himself and trying to get a grasp of his head before the gameday ends. I'm townreading the slot for that D1 EOD. that's ~never a wolf, and if irrel is a wolf he is about the most talented thing I ever played against and I'm just not gonna bother, cause that d1 EOD is pure as fuck and nothing will change my head. what does he do d2 then? he starts the gameday making the associative reads, both wrong, on volxen having overexplained null reads, which is nuanced and towny and shows he is putting real effort into solving. and then... IDK. all his stances are coming from overtly towny perspective and feels hard to fake.

Toranaga
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Post Post #2482  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:04 pm

this is going from memory and I'm drunk but yeah

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Post Post #2483  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:45 am

Eragon has been prodded. He has (expired on 2018-10-15 10:45:54) to post before I start searching for his replacement.

Eragon
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Post Post #2484  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:32 am

The shame is real.

Tbh I completely forgot about MS for like 2 days b/c school/had a golf tournament yesterday, and I didn’t remembr it until I got the Email :/

I have another tournament today but I should be able to post after I get back home

I’m working on trying to lower the amount of games I play in at once jsut because it’s so hard to keep up with hem all and still do adequate in school. I’m still in 5, hoping to be in 4 or 3 soon.

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Post Post #2485  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:08 pm

Irrelephant11 has been prodded. He has (expired on 2018-10-15 17:07:47) to post before I start searching for his replacement.

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Post Post #2486  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:26 pm

Nauci has been prodded. She has (expired on 2018-10-15 19:26:26) to post before I start searching for her replacement.

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Post Post #2487  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:40 pm

Sorry I'm like ultra busy right now will post tomorrow

I want to see Eragon and Tora actually case each other instead of POE :p

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Post Post #2488  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:11 pm

Toranaga has been prodded. He has (expired on 2018-10-15 23:11:22) to post before I start searching for his replacement.

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Post Post #2489  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:33 pm

I was the last one posting content which is why I didn't post any content

don't replace me lmao

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Post Post #2490  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:15 am

Haaaaaaaaaaaahahahaha way to alllllll be prodded
Yeah Tor if you're town you're doing more than sitting and watching
Town!you doesn't give up that easy
Tell me why Eragon is scum or get lynched

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Post Post #2491  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:36 am

ugh I didn't give up, it's not on me to convince anyone of anything though

you have 100 pages of content to parse through if you're town, why do you need me saying anything?

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Post Post #2492  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:37 am

I don't like this line of questioning btw. would scum me "give up" after getting so far? is anyone else not currently apathetic?

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Post Post #2493  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:43 am

Eh I don't have the energy to keep it up and a quick skim of your meta says town!you does indeed act this way (though maybe not in lylo? idk)
I was trying a new thing where I look at what the nightkilled players are good at and try to do it
Ausuka and nsg were good at 1v1'ing
But I really don't have the energy rn

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Post Post #2494  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:53 am

I mean F me Toranaga and Eragon both have more posts than me what the heck

Okay let's do some solving I guess

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Post Post #2495  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:28 pm

Eragon
Reasons to Scumread:
> Dunnstral and volxen both treated him consistently with the way they treated each other
---> Dunnstral soft defended both him and volxen d1 and was otherwise pretty quiet (sidenote: dunnstral did this for tor D2)
---> volxen ignored both the dunnstral and kop/eragon slots entirely
> lolposting as late into the game as last game day. Post count probably decreases dramatically if you remove every joke-y post

Reasons to townread:
> Always felt pretty reasonable

Toranaga
Reasons to scumread:
> Flip-flopped on Dunnstral D2 in an opportunistic way

Reasons to townread:
> volxen and Toranaga wanted each other dead before it was certain either of them would get a wagon
> Toranaga shifted wagon movement onto volxen near EOD
> Highest post count in the game for a player which a meta skim says post count is AI



@Nauci quote and add things until we have all the puzzle pieces filled in

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Post Post #2496  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:44 pm

Eragon
Reasons to Scumread:
> Dunnstral and volxen both treated him consistently with the way they treated each other
---> Dunnstral soft defended both him and volxen d1 and was otherwise pretty quiet (sidenote: dunnstral did this for tor D2)
---> volxen ignored both the dunnstral and kop/eragon slots entirely
> lolposting as late into the game as last game day. Post count probably decreases dramatically if you remove every joke-y post
> Very careful with his votes

Reasons to townread:
> Always felt pretty reasonable
> Townread Kop

Toranaga
Reasons to scumread:
> Flip-flopped on Dunnstral D2 in an opportunistic way
> Scumread Poseidon
> NSG thought Tor was scum, and it's NSG
> Ausuka was really sure of it too for all of d2 (sidenote: was also willing to vote Eragon by EOD2)

Reasons to townread:
> volxen and Toranaga wanted each other dead before it was certain either of them would get a wagon
> Toranaga shifted wagon movement onto volxen near EOD
> Highest post count in the game for a player which a meta skim says post count is AI
>
>Swung his votes wherever his reads moved
> is towny in retrospect, given he was either protecting *only himself* (not Dunnstral) or was accurately aiming at *both scum*

Question marks????
> , votes dunnstral after Ausuka and Keyser already had done so with the caption "scummy posting imo"
> Started this game day with "I think it's Nauci"


@Nauci quote and add things until we have all the puzzle pieces filled in

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Post Post #2497  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:19 pm

In post 2496, Irrelephant11 wrote:
Eragon
Reasons to Scumread:
> Dunnstral and volxen both treated him consistently with the way they treated each other
---> Dunnstral soft defended both him and volxen d1 and was otherwise pretty quiet (sidenote: dunnstral did this for tor D2)
---> volxen ignored both the dunnstral and kop/eragon slots entirely
> lolposting as late into the game as last game day. Post count probably decreases dramatically if you remove every joke-y post
> Very careful with his votes
> Kop and Eragon both got prodded before this game day, unlike Tor

Reasons to townread:
> Always felt pretty reasonable
> Townread Kop

Toranaga
Reasons to scumread:
> Flip-flopped on Dunnstral D2 in an opportunistic way
> Scumread Poseidon
> NSG thought Tor was scum, and it's NSG
> Ausuka was really sure of it too for all of d2 (sidenote: was also willing to vote Eragon by EOD2)
> is pretty scummy after starting that game day with "irdk who it is"
> is also pretty scummy on its own
> Huntress kill makes more sense as a Toranaga/dunn team kill than an eragon/dunn team kill

Reasons to townread:
> volxen and Toranaga wanted each other dead before it was certain either of them would get a wagon
> Toranaga shifted wagon movement onto volxen near EOD
> Highest post count in the game for a player which a meta skim says post count is AI
>
>Swung his votes wherever his reads moved
> is towny in retrospect, given he was either protecting *only himself* (not Dunnstral) or was accurately aiming at *both scum*

Question marks????
> , votes dunnstral after Ausuka and Keyser already had done so with the caption "scummy posting imo"
> Started this game day with "I think it's Nauci"


@Nauci quote and add things until we have all the puzzle pieces filled in

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Post Post #2498  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:18 pm

ugh lemme do some work

I guess analyzing spew can be a start

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Post Post #2499  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:02 pm

dunnstral:

1) interaction with NSG about kop/eragon:
Spoiler:
In post 170, northsidegal wrote:dunnstral seems kind of scummy right now, so that's a good a place as any for a vote.

i remember someone asking or pondering upon why i wasn't voting GNB if i was apparently scumreading him, and while i didn't and still don't really understand the mindset of what he was saying, it didn't really ping me as all that scum indicative on an instintcutal level.

anyways,
VOTE: dunnstral

In post 171, northsidegal wrote:
In post 155, Kop wrote:I think Keyser is town from the quick glancing I made. I have played with Keyser quite a bit under a different alias on another website, and kinda know what his town game is, and what his scum game is. Unless his game play is different over here compared to over on the other website I play with him, but at the moment, I am getting his town game play from what I've seen so far.

how accurate would you say you are when it comes to reading keyser? i just want to know your degree of confidence here.

on a different note, kop's staccato sentences with all of the commas are standing out to me. from memory i don't really remember him talking like that, although i could certainly be wrong here. i'm going to check for myself soon (if not right after this then this should serve as a reminder), but does anyone else who's played with kop remember that?


In post 172, Dunnstral wrote:Yeah commas are scummy, somebody should look into that

In post 173, Dunnstral wrote:For real though I've got no clue what Kop's normal posting style is like - why do you think the commas are AI?


some things are standing out here:

- dunn does not react to NSG's scumread and vote on him, and chooses soft defending kop instead.
- the soft defense on Kop is not a townread on him, and dunn shows in #173 he doesn't know how kop plays and has no real reason to be jumping on nsg, other than to distract her from her own dunn scumread.
- dunn assumes NSG is scumreading Kop when she is not doing that.

this is one of those interactions that are incredibly AI and if I was any good at mafia I'd be able to tell exactly what's dunn's relationship with Kop in these posts, but I'm not so I don't know if I'm interepreting this correctly.

I think the most obvious one that points to SvS is dunn assuming NSG is scumreading Kop. Coming from the position of someone who was just voted by NSG, and then reads her talk about someone else in the very next post, I believe Dunn is more likely to jump to the conclusion that it's a scumread, if that other person also happens to be scum. As in, a little bit of TMI, a little bit of defensiveness.

If Kop is town, would dunn act like this? I feel like dunn is more likely to adress the scumread on himself if Kop isn't a slot he is aligned with. I think it's more likely he'd simply respond to the post of NSG voting him before he'd even bother thinking about her post on Kop.

2) that "eragon is scum" tinfoil post:

Spoiler:
In post 383, volxen wrote:
In post 381, Eragon wrote:Aye this playerlist is lit AF.

That’s literally the reason I joined even though schools starting.

Driving home from the airport, so will maybe do stuff later
(Or just meme with teh wurst and tora)


Welcome, Eragon.


In post 385, Dunnstral wrote:tinfoil theory: Eragon is scum and his partner(s) felt the need to welcome him in thread to try to seem like they're not talking in pt

Not a serious theory jsut something to consider I guess


it's been pretty hard for me to look at this post and not see it as spewing eragon town, because why in his right mind would eragon literally point at his partner that just arrived, and then his other scum partner, and "tinfoil" that they're scum together cause they greeted each other? I mean it's weird as it is that he did it pointing at volxen.

but then... why would he say that shit as scum vs town!eragon anyway? did he think to tie eragon to volxen just so they could lynch eragon after volxen died? and if that's the case, why did he not bring up this read on d2?

so the more I read into it, the more I think... it could just be smart distancing and trying to appear towny with "tinfoils".

3) scum is in here
Spoiler:
In post 1338, Dunnstral wrote:Irrelephant11
NSG
Eragon
maybe TW

Those are names I'd be willing to flip


there are interesting things in dunn's d2 that point to me being town a lot, but that's not my job to tell you. but a note for myself that he did not make a 4 player list without scum in it.

eragon's placement is more likely scum stylistically, just cause you're more likely to hide than to show as first name the one person that's your scum partner. unless you're running a bus job which by the looks of dunn's ISO, he is not.

and yeah, he rolls over and votes eragon while not trying to case him or anything. no effort to try and flip eragon here which points heavily as SvS and is interestingly not a thing anyone noticed before about dunn. he did not fight his lynch at all. he voted eragon and peaced off.

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