Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

[Jenter Brolincani]

JDodge has seriously misrepresented the stats by not taking into account the night action.

By Jdodge's route, we have 4/7 chance of hitting town today, and the SK has a 7/7 chance tonight. Lynching normally thre's a 5/8 chance today and a 2/7 chance tonight.Do the sums, and that comes to a 16/28 chance of having 2 townies dead with JDodge's plan, and 5/28 lynching normally.

vote JDodge

Why did you post such a bogus math argument?

[Jenter Brolincani]

Oh, and hello everyone!

[Jenter Brolincani]

Ok, remind me never to do math without sleeping for 72 hours beforehand.

I screwed that up badly... but I still reckon the stats favour not claiming today. I'm working on a proper model atm.

[Jenter Brolincani]

The full scenario, let's put these stats to rest at last.

Thanks to Simetrical on TWCenter for his help on this;

JDodge has seriously misrepresented the stats by not taking into account the night action.

By Jdodge's route, we have 4/7 chance of hitting town today, and the SK has a 7/7 chance tonight. Lynching normally thre's a 5/8 chance today and a 2/7 chance tonight.Do the sums, and that comes to a 16/28 chance of having 2 townies dead with JDodge's plan, and 5/28 lynching normally.

vote JDodge

Why did you post such a bogus math argument?

And why are

you

using such a bogus math argument such as "7/7" (would SK ever kill themselves?) Why are you saying "2/7" when assuming we lynch town it's actually 4/6?

Shit. I did make a mistake and it is 4/6 not 2/7. Apologies for this. The 7/7 is the fact that With a massclaim the SK will KNOW who the agent is and will so have a 7/7 chance of hitting town.

Taking into account all possibilites, an actual model is;

JDODGE;
4/7 hitting town today. 1/7 hits SK, 2/7 hits scum.
Hit scum, 2/7 SK hits town, 1/1
Hit town, 4/7, Sk hits town, 1/1
Hit SK, 1/7, ..., 0/1

1/7 SK down
4/7 2 town down
2/7 1 scum, 1 town down.

NORMAL LYNCH

Two scum die: first the town must hit a scum (2/8), then the serial killer must (1/6). Total probability: 2/48.

Two town die: first the town must hit a town (5/8), then the serial killer must (4/6). Total probability: 20/48.

Serial killer dies: easy, 1/8 (= 6/48).

One town and one scum: two possibilities. Either the town hits a town (5/8) and the SK hits a scum (2/6) = 10/48; or the town hits a scum (2/8) and the SK hits a town (5/6) = 10/48. Total probability is 20/48.

2 scum; 1/24
1 scum 1 town; 10/24
2 town; 10/24
SK; 3/24

Right, make those equivalent;

Normal;

2 scum; 1/24
1:1; 10/24
2 town; 10/24
SK; 3/24

Jdodge;
2 scum; No chance
1:1; 8/24
2 town; 16/24
SK; 4/24

So with Jdodge's plan;
That's a vast increase in the chance of losing 2 townies before d2, over 50%. Our chances of losing ANY scum before d2 go down to 12/24 compared to 14/24 normally, or chances of losing 2 scum decrease to nothing.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I assumed that it would be fine if it was just maths help... It doesn't say anything in the rules against it.

I agree woith our last paragraph totally, though; and that's what makes me dislike JDodge's plan even more, it's rolefishing.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I don't personally like Jdodge's response. He's come into the thread, posted some (BS) math to support his rolefishing, and when a proper ciounter-argument (finally, sorry my first try was rubbish) comes up just says he doesn't think stats are important anyway, despite that being the lynchpin of his original argument in favour of the ploy and his arguing the contrary with Ythill.

Ythill; I'm currently focused on Jdodge because I really don't like his arguing and I think that;

a) Actually, most people couldn't have been bothered to do the math to prove him wrong (luckily for me I had Simetrical who probably did it in half a minute with no calculator).
b) It's a good gambit for SK to pull, if it works he's in the good times, if not (as has theoretically happened) sticking to his guns afterwards is a good way of not getting the traditional scumtell of wavering and changing your arguments to suit other people (altohugh actually in this case I'd have been far happier if he straight up admitted he was wrong).

I'll do a player-by-player analysis in the next few days, just got in from a loooong journey.

[Jenter Brolincani]

The similar town action, Dodge, is not arguing for a d1 massclaim at all when it's so blatantly a stupid idea.

Also, you arguments are now useless. I haven't disproved that massclaim can win games, but you no longer have any evidence that they do, and you don't seem to be keen on providing any.

PbPA coming up when I get back in tonight.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Very short player by player readings list.

JDodge*
Inconsistent reasoning,poor arguments and stupid responses so far, I don't like what looks like rolefishing either. Read Scum.

goborage*
- Wrongly acccuses Dave of lurking (alothough this is really pretty minor, thought I'd mention it).
Apart from that rather piddlingly small point, I'm fine with gorborage's play. reading Town.

Dave*
Seems to be keeping up with the thread, not much content but his responses all seem to be perfectly fine to me... I'd like to see him put down a nice big post outlining all his suspicions. Reading Town.

Ythill*
Consistent, logical, and protown play. Town

camisade*
- Does what could be seen as rolefishing Dodge.
- He's skirmishing with avin, and not paying too much attention to the other players.
I'd like to see a Player by Player form camisade, but actually his play's not really too bad; I'm reading borderline.

Sethaniel*
He's actually posted vey little; get ome suspicions down, lad! Reading borrderline as there isn't enough either way.

avinashv*
- Buddies JDodge frm the start
- Says at one point where ther was a lot of pressure on Dodge;

I never have a good read on him, because it seems that he's always a little scummy.

I don't like this, it puts avin off the hook from saying anything decent and basically to mine eyes says that Dodge always looks a bit scummy, so his looking scummy now is now forgivable.
- Wrongly acccuses Dave of lurking (alothough this is really pretty minor, thought I'd mention it).
Reading Scum.

Jenter Brolincani*
Me town.

So town down to scum;

Me
Ythill
Gob
Dave
Cam/Seth
Avin
Dodge

[Jenter Brolincani]

I assume you mean the universl scumtell one;
Oh, yes, I think there is. Or rather, unless there are specific things you can treat as universally scummy things to do, there's never any real point scumhunting.

Among such things would be arguing in favour of a massclaim on d1 in an open setup game where it obviously doesn't have any real benefit.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Right... nice crap, nice crap.

Basically you're saying that because you OFTEN make scummy moves, it becomes a towntell for you?

That doesn't work, sorry.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I have read your damn post. And yes, universal tells are about people OFTEN making scummy moves. That is why in situations like this one I look at a game ploy or action and think 'does this help us lynch scum'? If the answer is no, I ask 'is the player in question making an honest mistake'? And frankly you're too experienced for me to consider that arguing for an anti-town strategy incorrectly is an innocent slip.

You're also accusing every player on this site who doesn't metagame of being lazy... and that's a LOT of VERY good players you just called out.

You're trying to slip out of actually defending yourself by claiming that for you doing this is a towntell, and I don't buy it.

[Jenter Brolincani]

But I still don't see how you can claim that a plan which decreases our statistical chances so badly and has other obvious disadavantages is a good plan.

And whether you are saying it is a null or town tell barely matters in this case. You are claiming it is not scummy, which it blatantly is.

There are also good reasons not to meta game. I don't consider metagaming a valid strategy in most cases.

Reasons;
a) Most of us have LIVES. I don't have the time to meta every other player in every game I play.
b) Players should always be trying to change their playstyle from game to game. Predicatable players lose games, to win you need to expect the unexpected, but keep the option open for the expected being true, thereby nullifying meta reads.
c) Continuing from b, players are in this game always trying to LOOK town. In different specific game this requires different styles and strategies. Unless you are keeping to a specific role traslated over form a specific setup, metaing is pointless as even a slight change in role can lead to major chages in gameplay. It's useless using a scum meta on a player who has Godfather role, because their role allows and rewards different playstyles.

I also never said people didn't make mistakes, I'm just saying that an EXPERIENCED player repeadedly making a BAD mistake when the logic has been pointed out to him/her doesn't look like an accident.

[Jenter Brolincani]

You have an extremely low opinion of me, don't you Ythill?

Dodge; the second two do NOT defeat unversal tells, unless you're thinking of different Unversal Tells to me.

Arguing for anti-twn strategies is in my book the main universal scumtell, and cannont simply be a play variaton; "Oh, I just decided to try annd screw town over in this game, I'm using a varied playstyle," does not really cut the ice.

Also, lazy? I work hard from 7am-9:30pm most days. Not having time is not laziness. I genuiniely DO NOT HAVE TIME.

I agree with Ythill, though, theory discussion is completely off the point, and you still haven't in my view successfully explained why you argued for such a bad strategy.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Ythill; It's the Easter Holidays and I have a freer work schedule, allowing me to put more time into games. Also I've been lynched a few times and the game iwas modding is over, so I'm freer than I was in terms of time - I had too many games on from crossreplacing to get enough people in my mafia game. So I can play a LOT better per game now hopefully. I can be quite a good player sometimes, I think, but when I'm rushed I make mistakes and slips and so on...

I love you too, JDodge.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Avin;

I just copied the list form page 1, what else shoudl I have wirtten?

Also you have opted in that post to neglect options c) and d); that I am town and Ythill is town or scum, meaning that I am a townsperson who thinks Ythill is playing in a protown manner and decides to put this in his PbPA.

This is my view is a far more serious error than calling town on oneself - you have failed to even mention obvious possiblities which include me NOT being scum, thereby trying to associate my name with being scum.

Two can play at this game.

[Jenter Brolincani]

It should have read; This IN my view... does that help?

[Jenter Brolincani]

I still say Dodge is today's lynch. He's twice led us into discussing theory not scumhunting, he's used plainly poor arguments and simply changed the topic instead of writing proper defenses, and has instead of ever attemptin any sort of proper argument just tried to condescendingly and agressively bluff his way out of things. It stinks.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Why do you think it's just playstyle? JDodge is far more experienced than I am (or indeed pretty much anyone else here), he should easily know better than to argue in favour of anti-town actions.

[Jenter Brolincani]

You missed me out...

[Jenter Brolincani]

All you find out in this setup is who the SK finder is. Everyone else with a brain will claim townie = no info = scum advantage.

I may be the only voter for JDodge, but I think people still see the obvious cases against him.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Not according to the last VC, is he?

[Jenter Brolincani]

@ JDodge; Stop being an utterly obtuse, stupid, angry idiot doing an impression of a hippopotamus trying to give birth to a giant magical ten tone were-seal. You are not just screwing town over, which is bad play, you're screwing every player in this frickin' game over, which is just purely anal.

I am as convinced as ever that JDodge needs to be lynched.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Can't we all just get along?

This is mafia, dear, not happy families.

[Jenter Brolincani]

My second is Avina.

[Jenter Brolincani]

If you want to be my second most scummy, you can be. No consequence to me.

Hell scummy. You don't even CARE who's your second most scummy? If you were town it would have a consequence as you would be trying to lynch scum, so you would keep at the top of your list only those committing scumtells. You just said it has no effect on you who is your second most scummy...

[Jenter Brolincani]

Ok, why aren't you interested in lynching Mafia today then? It seems a silly gamble to gamble a whole lynch on trying to lash out for the SK when the Mafia are easier to find with less information.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I'm just personally unsure without an entire day to look at and information from a night whether we can resonably hope to gamble upon definitely catching the SK and win, especially since the SK should really be far harder to tell from the townies by playstyle.

Looking at it the argument for trying to catch the SK first is not anti-town, but it's too risky for my liking, I would far rather SK hunt on Day Two.

[Jenter Brolincani]

They are nearly the same thing, yes. But you must also consider that an orange and a tangerine are nearly the same thing - yet their uses are entirely different.

Ah, but oranges and tangerines had a common ancestor - the scum player, be it Mafia or Serial Killer.

On day one, the town has the least amount of information it will ever have at any point in the game, therefore the obvious thing to do is not to decrease our chances of getting fruit by gambling on which is an orange and which a tangerine yet. As long as we look through scumtells and can get one of them, this is a good thing, and better than hinging everything on the one tangerine and failing to make fruit salad.

Day two we have enough information to get working on separating the two. I think it's a poor strategy day one.

You can't be held accountable for your actions if you have no real actions to be held for.

You can be held acccountable for failing to act.

[Jenter Brolincani]

JDodge is still my no. 1 suspect.

I agree that Gorborage looks quite town now.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Ythill is consistently protown and I've played with him before so I'm reasonably assured of that. Avin I have repeatedly said is my #2.

After Avin, Cam and Seth are pretty neutral/vaguely town, Gob and Ythill being town.

Dave I'm most unure about. I don't think I can call a read until day two.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Dodge; Playing consistenly in a logical protown manner with a very similar playstyle, like Ythill looks town.

Playing like an antisocial a-hole to everyone in the game consistently does not make it a town tell for you, sorry.

I would guess either you and Avina are Scumbuddies, possibly with someone quiet (if I had to call, Dave I think on a hiar's breadth of difference) as the SK. OR you're the SK and you're simply trying to hide by talking loudly about thoery and trying not to get any scumhunting done.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I was commenting on Dodge's alignment not Avina's. If Dodge is scum I would guess (note the wrod guess which implies uncertianity) Avina is his buddy, if he's SK I'm less sure, but Avina is scummy in his own right anyhow.