mini normal 2027: advice mafia (endgrame)

[Krazy]

I only replace into games in New York. If you're in New York, you're gonna see me a lot right now.

I haven't seen the VC but if I was in RVS my RVS would be on Garmr.

Anyone give me a quick summary of any claims, fakeclaims, or important things?

[Krazy]

FA_Q2 is town but I think there's only at most 2 scum on the wagon, maybe only one.

the worst usually makes sense as scum every now and then

texcat has voted more than two people so that's confusing

Havo can be lost sheep

Lynchpool of {Sky, Radiant, HWS}

Obviously 1+ of those people is town, someone tell me which of the three is town and I think we have 50/50 on scum in the other two.

I am never wrong on strong townreads, and FA_Q2 is definitely town. You have permission to vacate that wagon immediately.

[Krazy]

Give me your reads of Sky and Radiant HWS

[Krazy]

How about Garmr?

[Krazy]

Did Garmr claim? Where did the wagon on him go?

[Krazy]

OK HWS. Give me the benefit of the doubt for the moment. I have just replaced in, I need time to interact. Unvote so that Garmr doesn't hammer. We have an extra 24 hours, there is no rush in this dayphase.

Then, I'd like you to write in a single sentence your case on FA.

After that, I will explain why you are wrong and then who is getting lynched today.

[Krazy]

I just don't think FA did anythign that made me think he were town and part of my vote was to see what it would do with the game.

Ok, good.

It's day one, it is hard to generate strong reads without a flip for some people.

But here is my one sentence rebuttal:

FA's scumhunting is real. His responses are genuine.

You know I can wallpost. I can wallpost later if I need to. But that is the core of my argument. I'd prefer not to wallpost too much this early in the game since I know that can be exhausting for people. It would be a lot more convenient if you could take my word for this but I also understand if you won't and want examples.

Now, can you expand on what you liked about Garmr's posting in the latter half of this dayphase, and what you didn't like in the first half?

[Krazy]

oh my bad garmr is probably scum D:

also hey hey krazy

nice to finally meet town!the worst, never seen him before

[Krazy]

I know, it feels so weird after that Supp game

ducky are you down for garmr today?

[Krazy]

Sadly I already played the three name list with Garmr before.

Oh well we can try anyway.

Garmr, here's a list of three names:
Sky
Radiant
Wh4t

At least one is scum. Which one is scum in that list of three names?

[Krazy]

OK so Garmr+Wh4t is 2/3.

Can we solve this game day1?

[Krazy]

I like Radiant, he can be town.

[Krazy]

Radiant what do you think of Sky and Texcat? One of the two there is probably town

[Krazy]

@Modd, please include Toranaga in your vote count

[Krazy]

Missing people in the vote count messing me up a little bit

Toar is scum so now I need to actually sort Wh4t

[Krazy]

Oh Toar is tw?

First page needs to be updated.

Ok that's good, Wh4t is back to scum then, tw is town.

Garmr/Wh4t for 2/3

Sorting Sky/Texcat solves the game.

[Krazy]

These basically do not change at this point:

The Worst Toranaga Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald I Am Innocent
Saudade
HeWhoSwims horrordude0215
FA_Q2

These ONLY change if Garmr flips green, which is very unlikely. On red these are lock

Completly Trustworthy
Havo

[Own separate category I won't name]

RadiantCowbells

Sort these for game win

Skygazer
texcat

Garmr
Wh4t

[Krazy]

It's possible, as dope as my reads are I don't think I've had a day one solve to date. But I have pretty high confidence in 1 and 2. And hilariously high confidence in basically all of the dark green. If I am wrong somewhere outside the yellows then it could be one of the light greens.

[Krazy]

Texcat can I get you on board for Garmr today?

[Krazy]

Bold statement for someone who has never played with me.

Completed games from the last month:
viewtopic.php?p=10396694#p10396694 <-- replace in immediate gamesolve (it was already mylo)
-Dark Green Teacher -- Teacher was town.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=76441 <-- replace in game with 0 scum lynches, lead two consecutive lynches on scum, earn the nightkill over someone that had a cop inno on them, correctly sorts the SK (was talked out of the right conclusion on Espeonage/Guac divide, but did correctly case Espeonage but was talked out of it due to weird large theme mechanics)
-Correctly sorted DeasVail and Shoshin as TvT

viewtopic.php?p=10331892#p10331892 <--replace in case 50% of the scum team, while calling two leading wagons TvT (they were). It takes a fake cop claim to disrupt my lead
-Correctly sorted Oath and Tchill as TvT (until fake cop claim, but then correctly sorted fake cop claim as VT rather than scum, but was tilted enough from the play to replace out)

I can be wrong on scum, but I am NEVER wrong on a dark green. It is possible Garmr flips green, but unlikely, and he is almost certainly the best push today. It is NOT possible that FA flips scum. I would stake my reputation on it.

[Krazy]

Radiant, explain your case against FA in a single sentence.

I'm 100% on vig shots so I have you beat there too fam. Please let's continue going full epeen instead of looking at things that happened this game.

[Krazy]

So you are incapable of summarizing your case in a single sentence?

[Krazy]

Can you expand on why you believe wh4t is scum?

[Krazy]

However, I do scumread FA at the moment as well because of the following posts:
In 102, he pushes a controversial player for very weak reasoning
He shades people without strong pushes in 105 and 106
He is incredibly defensive and says Wh4t scumread him incorrectly in 108
He then continues to argue against WH4t without admitting he is wrong and even says 108 is justified in 241
He moves to the largest wagon after not saying anything about IAI previously in 247
In 685, FA names three suspicious players as scum with a strange amount of certainty and little explanations for why he developed negative opinions of people like Wh4t or Skygazer.

In 102 he is responding to radiant who is very loud. It is hard to case radiant well because of his playstyle.

He shades players who he thinks are pushing wagons with weak reasoning. There is a difference between thinking a case is BAD and thinking a case is SCUMMY. He is pushing those slots to play better.

Wh4t is scum and did read him incorrectly. 108 is not a great case but that doesn't make Wh4t town or FA scum.

Don't know what was going on in 247 but IAI was scummy before Gamma cleaned it up.

In 685 he is thinking through his reads.

There are exactly 0 scumtells in those posts. If you think there is always a clear progression on town on their reads in day 1 you are being way too optimistic.

[Krazy]

CT, please do not give in to town syndrome. If I am scum, you should take time to prove it before this dayphase ends.

In the mean time, what are your current thoughts on Garmr and Wh4t?

[Krazy]

Radiant, I have said you are scum exactly 0 times. I think you are hard to read for a player like FA and it is not unreasonable to push on your slot since you produce a lot of AtE.

[Krazy]

Please give the thread room to breath Radiant.

[Krazy]

Hi Havo, what is your read of these slots:
Garmr
Completely Trustworthy
Wh4t

[Krazy]

As I told FA in our PT, I thought I could unload the wagon without a claim, I guess I was way too obvious about it tho and it backfired.

Not sure if I've ever had this role before and replacing in with my brother at L-1 was not the smoothest transition.

Town can QQ about how obvious I was afterward, in the mean time let's let the scum nightkill us please.

[Krazy]

actually krazy repping in and buddying me is probably kinda scum indicative, DT seemed towny but like...his gimmick is just yelling at things so idk exactly how to read that.......

The worst, you know me relatively well. I understand you are concerned about me townreading you since that has never happened before.

But I ask you this. Would I, Krazy, claim mason with a scumbuddy at L-1?

I know you have not seen my scum game, but you have seen my town game. You probably have some sense of how I approach the game.

Is this something Krazy does?

[Krazy]

Masons:
Krazy
FA_Q2

These basically do not change at this point (I know each of these players very well and am very confident in my read now):

The Worst Toranaga Fredrick A Campbell*I am hoping I am not suffering from Taly!Syndrome but I still feel strong about this read
Gamma Emerald I Am Innocent
Saudade
HeWhoSwims horrordude0215

Likely town:

texcat

-- I know texcat's playstyle pretty well and this does not look like scum!texcat. Very close to darkgreen.

Havo

-- don't know this person at all, could be wrong, but lost sheep seems like a pretty likely explanation

Slight townlean

Completly Trustworthy

-- I was saying likely conftown when I was feeling more certain on Garmr and when I thought his push was harder, on rereading the slot I am less certain this is town. Still, his points have been pretty good. His points about FA/DT were correct, the distancing there was kinda "not good". I kinda think a town!CT would have responded more to my push on Garmr, but it could be that my defense of FA was just that bad and observer effect is damaging my read.

Sort these for game win

RadiantCowbells

-- says he's super good at this game, so I'm less certain he's just a [redacted] Seriously there is some grade A anti-replace-in behavior from Radiant. Dude should be lynched tomorrow regardless of alignment just so the rest of you have a solid chance of actually solving the game. Since he insists he's just the best at mafia, I am no longer willing to accept the argument he's just [redacted]. And I have other reasons to suspect his claim is fake or at the very least that there is no town-sided jailkeeper so his role is at best useless. I actually thought his claim looked like something a VT would do but I think a flip would be a good way to find out at this point. The thread would be easier to read without his constant [redacted] posting.

Skygazer

-- Maybe Sky's early game is very different from her lategame but this feels very different than the Sky I know

Best solve for 2/3

Garmr

-- viewtopic.php?p=10397913#p10397913 this looks like scum!Garmr to me, but I have struggled with reading this particular player in the past.

Wh4t

-- Basically his early posts are active!town frontloaded and then he goes into lurk mode which seems pretty scummy. OMGUS near the end of his post history seems very much at odds with the thought process and apparent scumhunting of earlier in the dayphase.

[Krazy]

I'm fine with FA getting hammered, me getting nightkilled, and Radiant getting lynched tomorrow. In fact, here.

Vote Radiant

Lynch Radiant or lynch FA so that scum can nightkill me. I am not continuing the game with this slot regardless of alignment.

[Krazy]

I have a dream... of this thread not including Radiant.

Think of how smooth and pleasant tomorrow will be when Radiant has been lynched and I have been nightkilled.

It will be glorious, friends.

[Krazy]

Wh4t is currently off the wagon so I can only assume this goes through while I am asleep tonight.

Anyway, remember that the case right now involves me:
a) Hard defending a scumbuddy who is already at L-1
b) That scumbuddy being pushed down from L-1 and then being brought back
and then requires c) Me to claim masons with that scumbuddy in a setup when there are 0 other claims.

If scum knows there are no masons, and town has ANY investigatives, this is not a strategy that lasts to endgame, so basically Cow's entire argument rests on his assumption that I am basically just fucking awful at playing scum and would accept what amounts to a day 1 loss.

Conversely, if you are not Cow and have anything resembling a brain--anyone who knows me should consider whether I remotely consider the possibility of letting FA go through as a confirmed town ally. If you know me, you know the chances that I do not hard defend FA are exactly 0% in this situation. When I townread someone, I defend them no matter what. If I have mod confirmation someone is town, there are no brakes that will stop me from avoiding a mislynch if I have it in me.

But since there is the serious risk that this goes through anyway, let me emphasize this again. If this is day 2 and there are two dead masons: lynch cow.

If he is town, he has worked so hard to carry the scum and generated so much wifom he absolutely will be a detriment to the town if left alive.

If he is scum, then he should simply be lynched.

There is no downside.

If this is day 2 and there are two dead masons you might be thinking to yourself, "man, we shouldn't rush the dayphase."

No. You don't need to talk. Lynch him immediately and get to day 3 with a fresh slate.

Finally, and I cannot emphasize this enough. If you lynch anyone in my dark greens before lylo, I will vig you from the graveyard.

I'm sure cow will do another 10 back to back posts of [redacted]. That's fine. If it's day two, look at me in iso. Look at my reads. If I am uncertain on a read, I have tried to be clear on why I am uncertain. I know I do not list cow as the #1 fos. This doesn't matter. Lynch him.

[Krazy]

Alright, Gamma can get downgraded out of dark greens.

The worst gets a pass; I don't think I've gone full Taly. But Gamma should know better.

Garmr obviously in full omgus so he doesn't care anyway.

As I said, lynch cow tomorrow. If there is a jailkeeper in this setup, they are almost certainly not town aligned.

Stand by my other reads. For the people I basically don't know I could of course be wrong. There's no way I do a full meta on people in a game I was in for less than 24 hours.

As for my play, I stand by my decision to hard defend here. Losing a mason to mislynch is a serious tempo loss. If not for cow, who is either scum or about to eat a huge [redacted], this mislynch almost certainly does not go through.

If you are so loud and so stupid that the entire mason team simply stops caring about the game then you will lose your tprs.

Of course cow knows that this setup is probably balanced around a) the town being able to mislynch a mason and b) the idiot who mislynches the mason getting mislynched afterward, so this game could still theoretically be winnable among the non idiots.

But don't mistake me. I do believe Cow is capable of this level of open wolfing as scum and you absolutely must lynch him tomorrow.

[Krazy]

Thank god I don't have to deal with this game anymore, I was really worried I'd have to replace out but now I can just die

[Krazy]

Masons:
Krazy
FA_Q2

These basically do not change at this point (I know each of these players very well and am very confident in my read now):

The Worst Toranaga Fredrick A Campbell*I am hoping I am not suffering from Taly!Syndrome but I still feel strong about this read
Saudade
HeWhoSwims horrordude0215

Likely town:

texcat

-- I know texcat's playstyle pretty well and this does not look like scum!texcat. Very close to darkgreen.

Havo

-- don't know this person at all, could be wrong, but lost sheep seems like a pretty likely explanation

Slight townlean

Gamma Emerald I Am Innocent

-- Hammer suggests I seriously have to consider that my first impression here was wrong, but it remains quite possible that I simply overestimated Gamma's townplay

Completly Trustworthy

-- I was saying likely conftown when I was feeling more certain on Garmr and when I thought his push was harder, on rereading the slot I am less certain this is town. Still, his points have been pretty good. His points about FA/DT were correct, the distancing there was kinda "not good". I kinda think a town!CT would have responded more to my push on Garmr, but it could be that my defense of FA was just that bad and observer effect is damaging my read.

Sort these for game win

Skygazer

-- Maybe Sky's early game is very different from her lategame but this feels very different than the Sky I know

Best solve for 3/3

Garmr

-- viewtopic.php?p=10397913#p10397913 this looks like scum!Garmr to me, but I have struggled with reading this particular player in the past.

Wh4t

-- Basically his early posts are active!town frontloaded and then he goes into lurk mode which seems pretty scummy. OMGUS near the end of his post history seems very much at odds with the thought process and apparent scumhunting of earlier in the dayphase.

RadiantCowbells

-- says he's super good at this game, so I'm less certain he's just a [redacted] Seriously there is some grade A anti-replace-in behavior from Radiant. Dude should be lynched tomorrow regardless of alignment just so the rest of you have a solid chance of actually solving the game. Since he insists he's just the best at mafia, I am no longer willing to accept the argument he's just [redacted]. And I have other reasons to suspect his claim is fake or at the very least that there is no town-sided jailkeeper so his role is at best useless. I actually thought his claim looked like something a VT would do but I think a flip would be a good way to find out at this point. The thread would be easier to read without his constant [redacted] posting. He is a player that firmly believes in open wolfing and if anyone says that he is simply VI and not scum they are probably a buddy. Lynch immediately.

[Krazy]

Lynch from bottom to top

[Krazy]

Havo read is not very firm read. Gamma could maybe even go yellow now. Not like my reads are going to be super stable with less than 24 hours in the game. I doubt I have a flawless solve, but that doesn't mean the lynch order is wrong to get to a solve. Bottom to top is solid

[Krazy]

btw, CT, regardless of alignment, "your rebuttal to my 7 part case isn't very convincing" is a completely awful response to someone who has replaced into a 40 page game and has spent less than 6 hours even looking at it. You could have just unvoted so you could properly sort me.

There were over 48 hours on this dayphase and the people who let Cow railroad this should be absolutely ashamed of their play this game. "town doesn't have this level of certainty" he argues--but he insists the game with two claimed masons and no tprs claimed or dead are DEFINITELY scum. Like I don't want to insult his intelligence. At this point it is simpler to accept that he isn't a VI and that he really is just scum. So I don't want to go full tilt over him since I do at this point think he was simply playing to his wincon.

When he does 50 thousand one sentence replies in day 2, please reward his whining and AtE with a lynch. Just go through with it. Don't doubt yourself. Don't question it. Push it through.

[Krazy]

That was a hammer ducky, this is twilight.

You lynched the masons. (Mason but I get nightkilled here)

[Krazy]

Brilliant play this game Sky, really solid bussing, and great job keeping it together as Last of Kin.

HWS had a pretty strong day 1 as scum for him, almost sorry that his slot got killed due to the replace outs.

While I was pretty tilted about my 'brother' being lynched d1 I've kinda come to accept that it wasn't unreasonable for town to go that route. While I still disagree with cow pushing the lynch before I could finish sorting, I don't think the lynch, overall, was game-losing.

Texcat, I know you might be frustrated with how this game ended up, but to be honest I think I followed your reasoning at just about every point in this game and I don't think you should blame yourself for how this game went.

Sorting Sky/Texcat solves the game.

spooky