Open 70 - Two of Four (b9) (Game Over!) before 595

[armlx]

I agree with the dcorbe stuff so far. Max is null on my list so far as is Avinyl for their interaction (or more max's random push on him for something not really that scummy).

dcorbe, claim and/or die.

Also, no one is to hammer dcorbe before he claims.

[armlx]

Yeah, just leaving him chilling there is awkward. Waiting on claim still.

[armlx]

Yeah, just leaving him chilling there is awkward. Waiting on claim still.

A claim could easily be WIFOM, it seems like waiting for that is pointless. Unless he claims something, and you happen to be that role. I'm not trying to push that lynch, just wanted to point it out.

No, some claims are provable, and false claims usually get discovered. Not waiting for a claim is always a bad idea.

[armlx]

Umm, yeah, Farside just abandoning the wagon is pretty sketchy.

Vote Farside

3rd on the wagon and what not. Been forever since I used that one.

[armlx]

Unvote

Definitely did NOT realize that was L-1.

[armlx]

Just wondering, why is this game called 2 of 4 when there are only 3 possible power roles?

[armlx]

I'm not suspicious you for that. I'm suspicious of you for just jumping ship on the dcorbe wagon after just hopping on it.

[armlx]

Hmm, farside22 changes his vote right after getting accused by dcorbe (who had most votes) and then farside22 tries to make us look somebody else than himself.

"So lynch all lurkers is your policy?" I kind of like that policy...

Bad policy....

unvote

Lynch all lurkers who are posting in other games is a better policy.

[armlx]

I think a dcorbe lynch at this point is counter productive. A page ago it wasn't.

[armlx]

I've got nothing against voting dcorbe but lets be fair if he is town the mafia gain a kill and we could lose a power.

I do not like this post's logic/lack thereof.

[armlx]

Waiting on a Farside claim, then I will vote based on that.

[armlx]

I'm not sure whether to see that as on OMGUS, but those are all points I agree with. Farside is still scummier however.

[armlx]

Pushes dcorbe wagon and just randomly abandons it post townie claim for no reason.

[armlx]

What I have is purely gut feeling, but my gut feeling is right most of the time.

Gut feeling is an excuse for not having a reason, having a reason that revealing would show you are scum, or plain laziness.

FOS Max

[armlx]

Its better to have a reason though, Max.

[armlx]

Vote Farside

. Didn't vote earlier as she was at L-2.

[armlx]

He was at L-1 and claimed townie. Correct procedure is pretty much always lynch.

[armlx]

He was at L-1 and claimed townie. Correct procedure is pretty much always lynch.

With 3 pages and no info? That is terrible idea. Unless I'm certain he was scum why let him get lynched by a quick hammer? Sure maybe it will flush out a newbie scum day one, but if dcorbe is townie it just gives the scum an early first kill with no discussion. You logic fails.

He was wagoned for legitimately scummy reasons and didn't have a saving claim.

[armlx]

He was at L-1 and claimed townie. Correct procedure is pretty much always lynch.

With 3 pages and no info? That is terrible idea. Unless I'm certain he was scum why let him get lynched by a quick hammer? Sure maybe it will flush out a newbie scum day one, but if dcorbe is townie it just gives the scum an early first kill with no discussion. You logic fails.

He was wagoned for legitimately scummy reasons and didn't have a saving claim.

So he should be lynched without more discussion?

Not my point. My point is abandoning his wagon based on the info at that point in time was EXTREMELY odd.

[armlx]

He was at L-1 and claimed townie. Correct procedure is pretty much always lynch.

With 3 pages and no info? That is terrible idea. Unless I'm certain he was scum why let him get lynched by a quick hammer? Sure maybe it will flush out a newbie scum day one, but if dcorbe is townie it just gives the scum an early first kill with no discussion. You logic fails.

He was wagoned for legitimately scummy reasons and didn't have a saving claim.

So he should be lynched without more discussion?

Not my point. My point is abandoning his wagon based on the info at that point in time was EXTREMELY odd.

Leaving him at L-1 which is uncomfortable when I've seen some people with quick hammers some games.

Again, this all comes back to the idea of you voting (and putting at L-2 I might add) someone you weren't comfortable with lynching or thought was town.

[armlx]

He was at L-1 and claimed townie. Correct procedure is pretty much always lynch.

With 3 pages and no info? That is terrible idea. Unless I'm certain he was scum why let him get lynched by a quick hammer? Sure maybe it will flush out a newbie scum day one, but if dcorbe is townie it just gives the scum an early first kill with no discussion. You logic fails.

He was wagoned for legitimately scummy reasons and didn't have a saving claim.

So he should be lynched without more discussion?

Not my point. My point is abandoning his wagon based on the info at that point in time was EXTREMELY odd.

Leaving him at L-1 which is uncomfortable when I've seen some people with quick hammers some games.

Again, this all comes back to the idea of you voting (and putting at L-2 I might add) someone you weren't comfortable with lynching or thought was town.

I'm uncomfortable with a page 3 no info lynch. You keep missing that. Putting him at L-2 for good reason. Leaving it because sometimes (most times) scum look for an easy and quick lynch to cause confusion.
Nice try in purposely misunderstanding me. Look forward to hearing you try and convince people day 2 why you were so hard up on my lynch when I have stated over and over my reasons and you keep misunderstanding. Sad part I think you are town.

No info? What more do you want from a day start lynch?

Also, nice trying to scare me off voting you b/c of the "consequences" while simultaneously buddying by saying you think I'm town.

[armlx]

What you did and what you say you did are conflicting.

What you did: Put dcorbe at L-2, then jumped off after he claimed townie on the basis of "I just think you are aggressive"

What you say you did: Pressured dcorbe and then hopped off to extend the day.

These are conflicting issues. The former implies that you wanted him to be lynched then backed out right before we could lynch him so you weren't blamed. The second implies a lot more tact, which I think you are retroactively trying to add to your actions.

[armlx]

By not voting him, if he turns up town, you distance yourself from the blame.

Also, claim please and

Unvote

so no one hammers before this occurs.

Also, self voting is 100% anti-town. Just saying.

[armlx]

By not voting him, if he turns up town, you distance yourself from the blame.

Also, claim please and

Unvote

so no one hammers before this occurs.

Also, self voting is 100% anti-town. Just saying.

Already claimed. Not unvoting myself. I have nothing else to say to you.

If you are that frustrated with the game, would you mind asking for replacement rather than going about your current course of action?

[armlx]

I tried to break it in 133, but its starting again.

[armlx]

Mr. Blonde, a large chunk of your posts are you just checking in. Please post more content.

[armlx]

Vote Farside

.

Also, no previous suspicion of max stated. Wagon much?

[armlx]

Hmm, missed that. I only saw the vote for alvyn.

Still not a fan.

[armlx]

@Armix: I want to know have you ever actually pegged one person day one and been right, because the games I'ved played with you thus far you have not.

Fair point. My D1 hit percentage is only a bit better then random.

[armlx]

I don't think Armix is scum I just think he is narrow minded.

I'm starting to think this as well.

Unvote

of hypocrisy.

I endorse a Max lynch now. He has been actively scummy as opposed to subtlely as I have accused dcorbe and farside of.

[armlx]

That is L-1. Just FYI. Claim and what not.

[armlx]

I agree with that list, +/- ordering.

[armlx]

I'd also like to hear if anyone has anything positive to say about max. Speak up now or forever hold your piece

How about we wait for a claim before we do anything rash.

Mr. Blonde: You are wrong. Such lists are made by both alignments, backed by both, etc. Usually, making such a list is detrimental to any sort of grouped scum however.

[armlx]

Yeah, nothing convincing.

Vote Max

Hammah time.

[armlx]

I'm trying to figure out who would have killed Mr. Blonde in this scenario

Not liking that last Grimmy post, on top of what farside said there the "oh no, 2 dead townies" thing.

[armlx]

I've got nothing against voting dcorbe but lets be fair if he is town the mafia gain a kill and we could lose a power.

I do not like this post's logic/lack thereof.

What I have is purely gut feeling, but my gut feeling is right most of the time.

Gut feeling is an excuse for not having a reason, having a reason that revealing would show you are scum, or plain laziness.

FOS Max

My reasoning preceded the vote, and his defense afterwards was lackluster to say the least.

[armlx]

If you are frustrated with Armlx, then vote arlmx every chance you get.

Here Grimmy is trying to prompt farside to OMGUS.

Uses a % lynch-meter without any real reason, then uses numbers close enough to warrant a switch either way.

I am witholding my vote for now, because voting will put either person at L-1, and thats not something I wish to be responsible for just yet.

Why did armlx say he supports a max lynch, but not vote for him?

Hi, I'm a contradiction. Nice to meet you.

as for the scum being on the wagon already, there is a chance the scum are people who havent even responded yet since Max hit l-1

Bad logic.

<insert humoruos coment here in order to avoid a prod>

Lurking actively is fun...

Ill reread and come up with a suspect later

Still waiting...

With those in mind,

Vote Grimmy

[armlx]

alvinz- Null. More content needed.

Avinyl- Mildly scummy. Hisscum list is very non-commital towards most people, and he was the only person with a legit reason to kill Mr. Blonde (or more accurately, the only person who would think it was a legit reason)

Dcorbe- In retrospect, pro-town. Hasn't done anything really scummy besides that one contradiction. Seems very interactive as well.

Farside- Town, comparison to Weather Mafia mainly.

Grimmy- Scum, see above

jtdyer- Possible scum, voting record is pretty opportunistic.

[armlx]

He likes to push people day 1 with little to no information and push buttons.

This is true in the case that no one else is providing substantial discussion points.

[armlx]

My top three suspects:

You have 2 people there, got a 3rd?

[armlx]

Max is dead. Hence my question.

[armlx]

and jtyder is probable.

Fixed.

[armlx]

As much as Armix beat me up for not keeping my vote on dcorbe I wonder if it wasn't bussing.

What does this mean?

[armlx]

You were arguing with me about my unvote on dcorbe. I think you two may be scum parnters and I do believe you to be the type of person to buss your scum partner.

Ok. I understand now.

1) I'm pretty sure on meta reasons dcorbe is town this game, or at the least his actions are not scum tells.

2) Do you assume I'm scum because you assume dcorbe is scum and I was bussing him, or do you assume Dcorbe is scum b/c you think I'm scum and my behavior looks way too much like bussing in your opinion for him to be town? There is a different order to correctly attack in both as its an A then B scenario either way.

3) Is this assumption all you have right now?

[armlx]

1) So far I haven't seen dcorbe come up scum in a game. He seems like a person who usually gets lynched do to his attitude (all meta game reads mind you)

I concur with this. So what reason do you have to suspect dcorbe.

2) I assume you more likely scum then dcorbe, but it was dcorbe's defense of you against alvinz that clicked my brain. After the way you kept on saying how scummy he was then saying it wasn't worth it 2 pages later also clicked my brain.

The point is we have no reason to trust a townie claim in this game as anything, and thus there was no reason for the lynch to be stopped. You stopping it was very odd to say the least, hence the reason I also hopped off as I assumed you were scum trying to wash your hands of a townie lynch. Then max happened and what not.

I have since then come to realize point 1, meaning the entire dcorbe wagon D1 was not based on correct analysis.

Do you have other reasons to suspect I am scum?

3) Your hammer on Max also seems off. I've seen you hesitate and talk things out before voting someone and I've seen you act aggressively. Somehow that hammer just seemed a bit opportunist.

See above. Townie claim, scummy behavior, etc. Once someone townie claims in that situation, there is nothing to continue to discuss. See D1 of Elemental Mafia for an example of me using this.

[armlx]

@farside/armix – I have a game where dcorbe flipped scum that I can point you at, but it is still in progress

I do as well, though its probably a flawed example as he replaced in at L-1 late game (TinVision's new C9). However, what I also have is a game where a lynched Dcorbe flipped town with similar behavior (ongoing), which sorta nullifies his actions.

[armlx]

I have preached in other running games that meta reads are a horrible way to build a case on someone and I still believe that. By that notion, inverse is also true: meta defenses don't amount to shit.

Why?

[armlx]

First I think doing meta of someone is null.

This is where we will have to differ.

What are your thoughts of Grimmy by the way.

[armlx]

I hold back on hammers when there are things to discuss. There wasn't here.

[armlx]

Why was his hammer so odd?

Second. Max had exhibited little to no pro-town behavior given no sufficient defense and had no claim to save him.

[armlx]

Yawn, this sounds like a fight among townies.

More lynching Grimmy would be my solution.

[armlx]

Farside, I think you are putting too much emphasis on pairings on player connections without a dead scum.

ShadowGirl's vote on you does seem pretty opportunistic though.

[armlx]

You see I mention the lulu wagon in that game and all 3 scum were on that wagon. This is not a bad discussion in the fact that nothing was being discussed to begin with.

Again, you have the same issue of a lynch that had several supporters beyond the lynch, so the odds of all the scum being in that group were still inflated.

[armlx]

At best it's going to lead us to a WIOFMy mis lynch. I'm concerned about the consequences of us mis-lynching a power role because we got some bad intelligence from the Max lynch.

This is an example of having the fear of being wrong, though I agree with you analyzing the Max lynch right now is pretty useless.

[armlx]

I wouldn't say its useless, but more that right now is not the optimal time to try and draw info from the max wagon. I mean, its pretty assured both scum were on it, but so was almost all the town.

[armlx]

Farside: The only people who did not endorse a Max lynch were Max and alvin95, who didn't even post. I am counting Grimmy and Avinyl as on the wagon as they definitely showed worthy voting intents. The odds of the sole person who didn't attack max being scum are 2/7, not even accounting for scum having incentive to join the mass wagon. Thats pretty assured to me.

[armlx]

Farside: The only people who did not endorse a Max lynch were Max and alvin95, who didn't even post. I am counting Grimmy and Avinyl as on the wagon as they definitely showed worthy voting intents. The odds of the sole person who didn't attack max being scum are 2/7, not even accounting for scum having incentive to join the mass wagon. Thats pretty assured to me.

This is a fair point I did not take into consideration.

unvote:

Although I'm used to Armix being more of a presense and having some view type that isn't based on lurker only. I will try and get off the meta on this one.

vote: Shadowgirl

See early analysis and nothing so far has changed especially her reach just recently.

I know. This game is somewhere on my reread list and keeps getting bumped down for some reason.

[armlx]

I promise a full reread of this game in the next 7 days.

[armlx]

Did a full reread, and I still agree with my current course of action: Lynch Grimmy then move from there.

[armlx]

Did a full reread, and I still agree with my current course of action: Lynch Grimmy then move from there.

I still think we have better options in SG (who replaced jtyder) and strife (who replaced avinyl). What are your views on the other wagons that are appearing though (SG and farside), grimmy has to be scum buddies with someone.

Actually you was my current choice, but its pretty weak and I am no where near confident enough to lynch anyone other than Grimmy right now.

[armlx]

I was shocked withs. This is the third time D1 that Armix supported a bandwagon at L-1 and demanded a claim from the bandwagonee. Armix: You are obviously conscious that your actions were hypocritic, but I don't see you justifying this anywhere. Sorry for digging up an old grave, but I would love to see you explain how your actions were pro-town, especially considering your previously stated opinion on lynching after a Vanilla claim.

I felt that I had been tunnel visioning on farside, something I've been wary of ever since Weather Mafia. I have come to realize I think she is scum in every game I am in with her, and was afraid that I was just straight up wrong here.

[armlx]

I understand why you would re-route to attack Farside, but if your suspicion of Farside drops, the logical thing to do seems to be go back after DCorbe. Like you said, he got to L-1 for a reason, and the vanilla claim shouldn't have effected anything.

There are 2 reasons behind this.

1) Everything Max had done up to that point was suspicious.

2) Meta-based information from an ongoing game where he was revealed as town.

[armlx]

2) Meta-based information from an ongoing game where he was revealed as town.

Sorry, EBWODP, this is incorrect. I'm confusing join times. This is currently one of my reasons to not suspect him. It's pretty much just reason 1.

[armlx]

For what it's worth - I am not scum. That is why I prefer to be replaced.

For future reference, saying this means nothing.

[armlx]

I guess you disagree Armix? Why is conversing about why a kill happened pro-town

No, I don't usually, but Mr. Blonde was so far off any scum kill radar I had that I wanted to go back and see. I wouldn't use that as my sole basis for thinking someone was scum, but it would be fairly valid as part of a case.

[armlx]

Why do you need someone else to justify as to whether your vote is good? You should know whether it or not.

This is a decent point. Asking what people think of a case you make is good, but not asking for direct support in a vote.

[armlx]

Cass, mind posting full thoughts on everyone after a reread?

[armlx]

Vote stands. I do not like how only 2 people on that list are remotely grouped anywhere near town/scum.

[armlx]

What do you mean?

Mafia have an tendency to not list people as town as that means if they end up having to get them lynched later it looks really bad. Cass' list has list Strife as town, you as scum, and everyone as as possible scum.

[armlx]

quick note: back from vacation but dont even have time to see what was posted, so i am checking in.
more tomorrow.
Grimmy

Spoiler alert:

You were replaced

[armlx]

That is not only lining up lynches that is a big slip in saying hey guess what grimm's flipping scum.

I'm confused as to why you want to lynch dcorbe before grimmy for that.

[armlx]

Llama, my point mainly was that Farside thought Dcorbe was slipping in pre-emptively calling grimmy scum, but in order for that to be true grimmy would have to be scum in the first place, something I would like to prove right now.

[armlx]

I agree with your logic. My logic was that given the scenario we should lynch the one that the other's scumminess depends upon first.

[armlx]

Ok, I was just somewhat confused by your logic there. That makes perfect sense.

[armlx]

I face the same thought you have on him in the fact that more times then not he is town playing scummy, but it there should be a point whether he improves his play or he is scum.

Yeah, I know what you mean. The keep dying until you learn to stop playing scummy thing happened to me when I first joined, but I often try to win and avoid lynching newbies who are proven lynch magnets rather then go for the teaching opportunity. Though if you think dcorbe's recent play has been scummy, I'll definitely listen as I think his play as improved greatly since the start of the game.

[armlx]

Farside, your posts seem conflicting.

[armlx]

There are 7 alive, which means the chances of a townie spotting the pair is 7% statistically.

Odds mean nothing in the face of scum hunting.

[armlx]

I guess that means you believe circumstantial evidence is worthwhile at this stage of the game?

Depends on your definition.

I should also clarify my last post: I did not mean odds are irrelevant, but instead that scum hunting increases the odds of being right.

[armlx]

Do you think it would be informative if I was lynched and flipped town? If so, how?

This is just a set up for a straw man. Our argument is not that you would be a good info lynch if town, but that you are scum.

[armlx]

What ShadowGirls opinon on dcorbe is

With the posts he's made he hasn't been scumhunting very aggressively, and as I've been in other games with him I find this a bit odd. He seems to want to veer away from the Max lynch by deeming it's a waste of time, but so is arguing over whether to look at it or not.

This is interesting. Shadowgirl's meta seems to be in contrast to farside's and armix's.

Armix/Farside, do you disagree with this statement made by Shadowgirl? Is dcorbe a more active scumhunter in the other games where he flipped townie?

He has improved somewhat, but still isn't the best scumhunter.

This.

Also, Cass, my point is why would you care if we would be voting you based on the results if you are town. If you can't refute why we think you are scum, why should we unvote you.

[armlx]

Yeah, lynch should proceed.

[armlx]

Your claim does nothing to refute the case on you. Also, appeal to emotion on the LyLo thing, and pretty much the entire rest of your post.

[armlx]

If a townie is lynched now, we face LyLo. That's a cold fact. So I ask for some more discussion before this very important decision. Sounds reasonable to me?

Except you are in no way know to be a townie, and you are waving that scenario around so that we can be scared out of lynching you.

[armlx]

I don't think I have seen someone get upset and turn up scum yet, but I hold it in reserve as a non scum tell at the moment.

I have. A lot. I'm assuming its town for you due to Weather Mafia.

[armlx]

@Farside or Armix: Is the Weather Mafia meta deal with Farside's interactions with Gorrad late in the day?

No, when I accused her + Bookitty of being a linked scum pair.

[armlx]

It is completely known to me. In fact, it is the only fact I have. And the only emotion i feel is the urge to help town win. *shrug*

Emotion != logic. Logic = good.

[armlx]

Armlx pushing for a quicklynch on me

Getting a person to L-2 and getting a claim != quick lynch.

[armlx]

That is what I was talking about. The entire lynch procedure was followed. Your claim did nothing to disprove any points on you, and anyone who held back their vote so you could claim was at that point justified to hammer.

[armlx]

You asked dcorbe to claim, but not farside?
You voted for her for doing the same thing you just did.

I did ask for a claim once it was evident dcorbe was not still going to be lynched, as pressing a claim then having the other lynch just resolve is not productive.. And the only response I have to the second line is she did it first, hence derailing the wagon.

Oh? Because he claimed town?

No, because other things had happened which basically disintegrated the wagon.

She hadn't claimed townie at that point.

I was referring to Dcorbe's claim.

If you truly think she is scum you shouldn't be so hesistant to put at L-1.

Until a claim is made leaving someone at L-1 is a poor choice barring a guilty result.

You are fine with lynching dcorbe but don't do so yourself, but you're hesistant to put farside at L-1.

Two massively different scenarios. Dcorbe had claimed, farside had not.

You ask her to claim when she's already claimed, and you mentioned that the reason you thought she was scummy was because of that claim.

She had not claimed, and that was not the reason at all. The reason was her response to dcorbe's claim, which was an action that meant nothing. Reading interpretation = tech.

Appears to be an appeal to the emotions, and trying to ease suspicion off her because of her outbursts are purely emotion driven.

Asking someone to be replaced by someone else who would act more logical is an appeal to emotion?

And you finally vote for her because she's voting max, not because of the discussion that just came up - and she had already been voting him, at that.

Just because I don't state them, all my previous reasons still applied. To be fair I had forgotten about the earlier vote during that longer argument.

An easy hammer considering everyone wanted it, however, you're the one who suggest to wait for a claim and then you chuck that out the window seeing the opportunity.

But Max did claim....

We never do hear about this 'scenario'.

What do you mean? Day discussion started, night speculation had lost its usefulness.

I'd also like to point out you seem to pin mine and my predecessor's votes as opportunistic but not anyone else's.

Your point?

I think that Armlx thought that farside slipped.

How, and whats your point?

The two people fighting are the two people who you think as scum.

Really? Grimmy was arguing with you/jtdyer?

[armlx]

If you are pretty assured that scum was on it, I wouldn’t say that info is useless.

Again, I explained. EVERYONE was on the wagon.

Voting intentions and voting are not the same thing. You’re just trying to make it seem that it could be basically anyone so that there’s no point in looking over it.

They are pretty close in this scenario. If I were so inclined, I'd actually look closer at those who didn't vote as it saves them from a look at the vote count.

Then speak up and say why he is your choice. Just going along with it, hm?

What are you even trying to say here? Going along with what? I had said why I was voting Grimmy.

That was that game, this is this game.

They are still the same person......

Buddying up to me a little?

I'm scummy for agreeing with an opinion?

Seems like two partners talking to each other.

Did you see the logic behind the question, or are you just saying things to try to make your case make sense?

This string of misrep's intrigues me.

[armlx]

Unvote, Vote armlx.

Jumping on the new armlx wagon that fast? Really?

Second. If I had a second vote, it would be there.

[armlx]

I'd rather lynch Cass today. Think she is most likely scum, plus she has already claimed something that isn't saving.

[armlx]

I will say it's fairly suspicious to me that both ShadowGirl and Cass were voting for farside, and after some discussion of weather mafia and how farside's outburst was a townie tell, both are now voting for armlx.

Neither of them seem to really care much about the cases on the other, but they sure do like to sync up their votes together.

If whichever one of those two is lynched today flips scum (preferably Cass), I am all for following up with the next.

[armlx]

SG is a decent lynch, but, Cass is better.

This is a good post.

[armlx]

Quite possibly SG is his partner and this is him trying to clear her for the next day (using my town flip as evidence of her innocence). He's also making it sound as if SG/Cass are the only choices, when he has two votes on his name too - our two votes, no less. Did he just create the 'OMGUS false dichotomy'?

A) read it again. Do I say "Only if one flips scum"? No.

B) Hate to say it, but every person who has posted other than you two sees it as such.

[armlx]

EBWODP: B was related to the SG/Cass being the choices for today issue, which isn't 100% true (some people have shown suspicion of strife), but between Llama, Goat, Farside, and myself, you + SG are in all our top 3's.

[armlx]

I'm of the opinion that Cass is the better lynch then SG. I don't see anything that Cass has said that would change my mind.

That makes 3/5.

[armlx]

Bah, I wanted to live to mass claim....