Open 74 - C/9ths (Game Over!) before 601

[armlx]

Here, will read soonish.

[armlx]

I think that the pair TSN and EL is the most probable to be scum. From the begin the two agree pratically to all vote.

Not a sign of being a scum pair however.

Also, still haven't reread, will after Father's Day festivities are over.

[armlx]

I apologize for not getting to this game today. I promise on Tuesday.

[armlx]

Things I have noticed in the 1st two pages (Fathers Day Festivities blended into birthday festivities).

1) Mokina's page 1 is odd. Eldritch's response seems distancingish to me. TSN's vig kill think is also odd, but not reactable like that. I would bet if TSN is scum, neither of Mokina + eld are, but those 2 could be paired.

2) Eldritch jumping on TSN is odd, Lowell and TSN adding is even odder.

3) Mokina FOSing the "lurkers" is not good.

4) Eldritch OMGUSing Zombie is not good.

5) I like Darla and Zombie as town, as well as Snix. Snix's trap seemed legit, Darla for attacking Eldritch, Zombie seems on par with normal.

6) Sidney unsure of early game.

7) Donkey seems off from what I have seen of him, too aggressive.

8) Eldritch attacking an obviously inactive player on pg4 is bad. Hopping around is bad too.

9) Lowell so far lines up with Elemental, where he was mislynched as town for similar behavior in the context of that game.

10) Mokina's defense of Eldritch validates that part of point 1 (ZS wise). More lurker bashing too, aka easy lynch PLZ, then Lowell wagons....

11) OMG both OMGUS wagon DBE!!!! TSN and Donkey are also there, good to note. Then Mokina hops off....

12) Mokina vote on EL. within bus range definitely, so null.

13) More TSN wagon, have not really seen this out of him yet elsewhere so odd.

14) EL votes Sidney. More lurker bashing. Also, did he ever claim or did he just weasel out with by reversing a potential bus?

Scum tiers

1st tier (prob scum):
EL
Mokina

2nd tier (possible scum)
TSN
Donkey

3rd Tier (null)
Sidney

4th tier (leaning town)
Iron Man

5th tier (prob town)
Darla
Lowell
Zombie

Almost at end of D1, just posting so that I don't accidentally delete this somehow.

[armlx]

I got nothing on Iron Man. Don't really get the wagon given the circumstances. Meh, maybe later, but DEF not now.

Vote EL

Obv scum etc etc.

[armlx]

1. Okay--can't argue against gut feeling.
2. I don't understand this point-please rephrase.
3. Lurking is bad, mkay?
4. Then perhaps you should have looked at ZS' super-OMGUS holding onto my vote because he liked to scream at me.
5. This statement is odd--why do you like them as Town?
6. Okay...what?
7. Hm, I find it hard to see Donkeyz as aggressive, he pushes people but isn't really a case-maker like some others in this game.
8. Hopping around is bad? Guess everyone on Day 1 should be on your scumdar then.
9. Are you misreading? This point makes no sense to me.
10. This is WIFOM, scum wouldn't defend each other, but maybe thats what they want you to think, etc. Null-tell.
11. DBE has more than enough in the way of unhelpfulness/scumtells to have justified that vote Day 1, in my opinion.
12. If its a null tell, why make the point?
13. TSN wagon--I see him leading a charge on Dcorbe and Iron Man, pretty odd you'd call him a wagon'er.
14. Can't remember ever voting for Sideney--let me do a re-read.

1. Was not gut feeling in the slighest. Nice job trying to fame it as it though. Based on actual events (Mokina jumping on TSN for the day kill thing, your Vote then unvote FOS almost immediately)
2. Not TSN, Snix. My bad.
3. Lurking is bad. It is also up to the mod to deal with until the player in question is either A) replaced, B) starts posting, or C) continues to wish to play but not post. In case C, then you lynch them.
4. Umm he voted first, you voted second. How is his OMGUSing for continuing to vote you?
5. See the second sentence.
6. I am unsure of Sidney's alignment at this point.
7. Donkey is aggressive relative to what I have seen of him. Said game is ongoing, can't say more.
8. You jumped around SO many times in the middle of D1 its not even funny. It was extreme even for D1.
9. Lowell did a bunch of wagoning at similar points as town in that game as well. (Elemental Mafia)
10. Umm, no. Scum would and do defend each other. You trying to say that link is WIFOM is not a good thing.
11. Umm, not really. DBE is actually in my top 3 most town. Please cite said tells/unhelpfulness.
12. Its worth bringing up if one of you flips scum, as we have to go back and evaluate if Mokina was bussing or not.
13. I did not call him a wagoner, I was referring to the band wagon on him.

[armlx]

That's odd, I've never got that impression from you before Lowell.

He's voting you. That sorta implies that.

[armlx]

Feeling nervous Snix?

Comments like this, though my read on him may be based on a flawed example.

FoSes don't put anyone closer to a lynch.

They do indirectly, and in no way should you be suspicious of a lurker until they voluntarily aren't replaced and don't post.

[armlx]

Keep in mind that at the time it was apparent that some people in the game were picking up on prods without posting.

Was it? BTW, that is what I mean by what you singled out.

[armlx]

Problem is, you don't really know when someone "voluntarily isn't replaced

This is what I referring to by singled out.

Armlx argued that scum would defend each other if at all possible

Incorrect. Scum defend other scum where it is valuable to do so. However, when defending them would not decrease the likelyhood of their eminent death, it is not worth doing and bussing occurs.

[armlx]

EL responded to your point by mentioning that it's not possible to verify what a given set of scum will do.

Which is not true. There are certain behaviors scum exhibit more then town, otherwise playing Mafia would be more or less random.

[armlx]

Armlx was the one stating that donkey was agressive, not TSN.

Relative to my town example of him, which I can not explain until said game is completed.

[armlx]

Whole different situation dude.

Hence the reason you are only in tier 2.

[armlx]

Ok, way too much meta here.

Meta is a very strong tool. There is in no way too much going on.

[armlx]

Don't get me wrong, there is only so much meta can tell you, but the extent it is being used here is far below the threshold of usefulness.

[armlx]

and the jumping around of votes.

I loled at this. Darla has only voted the 2 people most likely to be scum together. That is it. Hardly hopping.

TSN's stock is rising, or more accurately yours is falling.

[armlx]

I also find it odd that donkey i basing his vote on suspicions based from the first round. I would rather see cases made based on actions of Day 2.

Not really an issue. Day 1 is about 80% of the game so far.

[armlx]

True, but a decent amount of progession has been made so as to allow for cases to be made on actions of Day 2.

Sure, I have built on my EL case with D2 actions.

[armlx]

On the semi-current meta debate:

I whole heartedly say that meta is never good. Make your decisions based on how the person plays in that game. Not how they play in others. Every game should be considered a completely separate entity from every other game, because, for all intents and purposes, it is.

I always need to say that whenever meta comes up.

Dun use it people. Seriously.

Lets say a player uses a vigilante ability N0. The answer of whether that player is scummy is going to be very different if it is, say, Thok as opposed to Pie_is_Good.

Now replace the names and actions with other people (examples: voting and saying X is scum 3 times a day and contradicting this and Yosarian2 vs. DGB; not posting often and BM vs. other people, etc).

[armlx]

Strange sense of urgency for my claim, especially since it would not do me nearly as much good as a comprehensive defense, which I am putting together.

Oh wow, missed this. Claim stalling from EL on D1.

Lynch him please.

[armlx]

TSN also backed his not claiming. Thats a big issue.

[armlx]

"if I was cop/doc, this is who I investigated/protected."

I dunno about that for docs until we have a no kill, but hypo coping is debatable.

[armlx]

Hmm, just realized we are looking at 2 scum out of 12, not 3.

Doesn't change that much, but it makes things easier I guess.

[armlx]

Hypo-doccing is actually really bad. We should never do that. I just remembered that if we do it will reveal the doc if there is a no kill.

Hypo-copping is awkward in that we can assume a cop with a guilty would reveal usually, and if someone says one of the mafia they know they aren't the cop.

[armlx]

That close to a lynch, it wouldn't much matter. It makes a lot of sense for L-1 cops to claim their role in this game, if only to provide a list of confirmed innocents.

I'm confused. We are talking about 2 different things i think.

Hypo-cop/doc is saying "If I was cop/doc, I would have targeted X last night".

[armlx]

Again, the issue of people giving innocents on scum or guilty on townies comes up, as they are automatically not cops.

[armlx]

EBWODP: Rather rely on standard cop bread crumbs for that reason.

[armlx]

Okay, toss hypo.

Agree. Hypo is only really good as a pre-nght measure with roles that die when they target scum (hider, weak doc) or in deathyish scenarios.

[armlx]

DBE wrote:
"LOOK AT ME I'M TYPING THINGS! I'm typing things!!! I'M TYPING THINGS!!!!"

unvote, vote DBE

This stuff you are smoking, where can I get some of it?

[armlx]

Lowell, she takes the stand that Zombie is town, EL + Mokina are scum. Pretty obv.

[armlx]

Epic buddying up.

Epic lashing out.

[armlx]

Wow. Nice one.

1) Reread my post when I entered the game. I have made statements about my own personal opinions of you + Mokina being scum. Pretty extensive ones.

2) Pretty obv was applying to the fact it was pretty obvious that was what DBE meant. Interpretation is tech.

[armlx]

More donkey votes please.

Why don't you believe EL is scum?

[armlx]

More donkey votes please.

Why don't you believe EL is scum?

Maybe because he is his scum-buddy?

That is one reason I am exploring. I want to know what reasons he is going to say before I pass that judgment however.

[armlx]

I endorse TSN's plan of dealing with cop claims.

[armlx]

Why is Iron Man so low on the radar for you?

Seems like slightly worse than null behavior for a newbie, and there were several people I thought were much worse. A lot of my analysis is based on EL being obv scum though, so if he's not I will have to re-evaluate.

[armlx]

She listed three or four players, said all of them might be scum, then listed her top two suspects, but said, 'well, maybe I'm wrong about them too.' So, waffling. And no, I preferred a donkeyz lynch then and I prefer one now, although iron man is worthy second choice.

Ummm, no she didn't... She said sidney isn't doing much, Donkey is prob town, she found nothing on me, and Iron man could be scum and EL probably is.

Nothing at all like what you say here.

[armlx]

I am not ruling out donkeyz by anymeans, but I find his cases and posts to be incredibly weak, at first I thought it was just his newbiness, but now I could see it as newbie scum.

I still say we should lynch EL today, and if he flips scum, that should decide donkeyz fate.

This is a good post.

[armlx]

Finally.

Thats a lynch.

[armlx]

Its not? Lame. Someone finish off the obv scum.

[armlx]

Has EL claimed yet? I'm definitly not hammering if he hasnt. And I'd also like to hear a post from him in his defence. Depending on how he answers, that will decide whether I hammer or not.

He has refused to before. Thats one of the main reasons I want him dead now.

[armlx]

Meh, that works too.

[armlx]

Donkey, it was pretty obvious EL's death was inevitable, to the extent a mafia partner would be able to hammer him there without losing game position (possible gaining it, as EL no longer has a chance to speak and accidentally link to other players). Bussing does happen a lot.

[armlx]

I'm comfortable with doing this. See everything I said about Mokina yesterday.

Vote Farside

Next would be TSN/Donkey, then Iron Man IMO.

[armlx]

Thats an L-2

It is. I realize this. Is your post asking me if I do realize, or are you pointing it out for everyone else?

[armlx]

Hmm.

Unvote

TSN and Donkey are now confirmed as either Farside is A) lying scum and the last of the group or B) an actual cop.

Vote Iron Man

We have time for Farside to give out more investigations if she is scum, as eventually she will stick herself by confirming too many scummy people. Iron Man was next in line after the 3 people who we can ignore from that last points.

[armlx]

or one of TSN/Donkeyz is a Godfather.

There are no godfathers in C9.

Donkeyz last comment D1 bothers me slightly.

Irrel, he is confirmed town now.

Whats got me wondering is the No Kill.

Speculation on this isn't worth it right now. Accidental doc reveals and what not.

[armlx]

Top 3 suspects are claimed cops or confirmed townies, so you were 4th.

[armlx]

Darla. . . there is no scenario in which either me or donkey could possibly be scum.

This is true.

Either

A) Farside is lying and the last scum. Both donkey and TSN are town.

B) Farside is telling the truth. Both Donkey and TSN are confirmed town via cop results.

[armlx]

Also, I still support a Mokina/Farside22 lynch at this point.

Why now? If she is scum, she has to dig her own grave my providing us with confirmed innocents off the top of our suspect list every night.

[armlx]

After this day if I don't get lynched and Iron Man isn't lynched I will investigate Iron man. If Iron Man is lynched I'm thinking Lowell as scum

I'd put sideney about Lowell if only based on Elemental Mafia.

[armlx]

Wow this post is horrible. Subtly redirect, much?

Again, irrel. If farside is scum she can't possibly win now.

[armlx]

Lowell, you can't take claim of that. It was beyond obv.

[armlx]

Oh ok, I see, I am so used to 3 scum games, keeo forgetting this is c/9ths.

I made that mistake for half of D2.

I am in agreeance with the lowell lynch at this point, I cant really understand his posts lately the attitude in them and acting as if he led the charge on EL.

In the abstract I agree, but in context of my meta read I disagree.

[armlx]

I'm with donkeyz here. I want Farside's results first though.

[armlx]

Farside, tomorrow it might be better if you don't announce your target.

[armlx]

Meh, I guess its the same as them killing an already confirmed in the big scale of things. Plus, to be fair, Lowell's contribution was below par.

Also, just did the math, there is no way lynching Farside until end game is correct. The worst the end game can be if Farside is there is her, confirmed, and unconfirmed she claims to be scum, which is a 50/50 WIFOM on her claim, which is no different from what we would have lynching her tomorrow (2 confirmeds, 1 dies, 2 unconfirmeds + 1 confirmed). If we confirm a 3rd on behavior, the end game would be 1 confirmed, 1 pseudo confirmed, farside, same deal.

I also endorse a mass claim tomorrow.

[armlx]

Again with the bandwagon guys. I still consider that we shouldn't target someone who wasn't that influential on the last vote. Iron Man had just been lurking but don't you think scum would have pushed for dcorbe knowing they were scum? I just kind of see Iron as like...there. lol

WIFOM

As in, maybe that's what he wanted us to think. We've got to go with intuition, along with his lack of content. At this point (read: At this point) he is in my opinion, the best lynch possible today--since his sacrifice will lose us very little.

Iron Man, it seems like you think everyone is Town--or you're just neutral in regard to their existence. My reads are somewhat different:

-DarlaBlueEyes: 70% Town, despite my townie impression of her, I don't know how I'd feel about a lynch especially since her black/white way of thinking is extremely dangerous to the town if she's wrong about her scumpairings. WIFOM note: She was very certain she would die, and still seems to be.

-ZombieSlayer: 91% Town, he responded emotionally to my attack on him, the attention he drew to himself is unlike that I've seen from scum in other games I've read. He's probably most Townie in my eyes.

-TSN: 83% Town Very wary, it may be the too Townie fallacy, but Dcorbe warned us about him in his final post. If I look back, I can see how he leads many charges with short posts--his posts are jam-packed with reasoning and lack my airy fluff, but I'm still just on the lookout. --Snix and him never really agreed, just a side point.

-Mokina: 62% Town, her logic reminds me of my own, and though DBE calls it craplogic, I can see her unique point of view most of the time. Given some of her scummier moments my ease in seeing her point of view frightens me, and I am reluctant to agree with her (unless she makes very good points). She follows other players very easily and has seemed to do so throughout the game.

-Lowell: No Read, I kind of want him replaced. One good post in Day 2 is not helping Town at all.

-Iron Man: 37% Town, opportunism and reluctance to post at its finest. It may just be that he's inarticulate and is not coming across the way he means to, but I just find that some scum drops out of his coat every time he takes a step.

-Donkey: Too Small A Read To Count, you show up and disappear a lot, but when you do show up, you make a decent contribution. I would still like to hear from you more consistently, as I have very little read on you. If you're Town, there's no harm in talking to much (unless you're like me and rub people the wrong way).

-Sideney: 74% Town, it looks like you're making an effort to contribute and post, but perhaps some language barrier is preventing you from doing so. Still, you've been very heavy on the FoS' and very sparing on the votes, I find that somewhat scummy (i.e. Pushing the wagon, while sitting on someone elses' so you can say you were never on that wagon. --See Day 1 DBE)

We are probably looking for someone in the middle of the pack here. The two that fit this description are Sidney and DBE, though it is odd I wasn't mentioned in this post.

[armlx]

are there any scum roles in this game that would be investigation immune? I'm new to these open types.

No.

Anyways, I think sidney is the way to go. My list would be (ignoring the farside issue)

Sidney
DBE
ZS (off chance)

Vote Sidney

L-2 as a heads up. At L-1 we stop voting and wait for a claim.

[armlx]

Mod Prod ZS please

[armlx]

And if you take that out, is there any reason to think that ZS isn't scum?

Scum are less likely to put their partner as #1 townie on lists in general as it creates too strong a connection.

[armlx]

I know ZS was on vacation, but he went from pushing and being vocal to not really saying anything at all which is what is bugging me about him. I don't know if he wasn't really reading (which to me is scummy) or what, but when I posted my comments then came out with the cop claim he still wanted to lynch me without answering the question I posted back on that day.

So your point is he didn't post while he was on vacation (or at least half your point)? The post cop claim attack is an issue, but I would rather lynch a couple other people first.

[armlx]

Still rather lynch the replacement.

[armlx]

sidney's inactivity makes me think they aren't the scum. Iunno just my opinion

How so? Simply disappearing = null, and he claimed to be back for night so a kill could occur.

[armlx]

Umm, yeah...... awkward.

[armlx]

i'M leaning DBE as town for now, but to be honest, looking back, I can't see a huge amount of scum-tells from armlx either.

I do not like this one bit. I definitely have an opinion of which one of you I would rather lynch first (hint: its you)

well I assume that was a soft claimed doc from you KOC? and I'm more inclined to think sid was less scummy than mike.

Fail. Farside would not be dead if he was a doc.

[armlx]

I'll wait for TSN to chime in before voting, but again see my reasoning against Sidney yesterday.

[armlx]

Wow, I forgot no one died on 2.

Anyways, lynch KoC + Darla today and tomorrow, myself, TSN, and Donkey are cleared so gg.

Vote KoC

[armlx]

Meh, if I wasn't confirmed you had a shot.

[armlx]

Fair nuff, just saying it could have been possible.

[armlx]

Farside, it definitely turned out for the better, especially as Donkey had another confirmed.