Mini Normal 2122 | Endgame

[team rocket queen]

hello friends! reading now!

[team rocket queen]

so i know dumb tells are lean scum and it's anti-town to speculate on setup on day 1, but, uh, is there some amount of setup information i'm lacking? like how many mafia are in the game, possible roles, etc? and is there some way to gain this information legally without asking in the thread? since everyone else seems to know (or doesn't care?) it doesn't seem to be in any of the mod posts (speaking of which the flavor of this game doesn't seem to make any sense to me unless there is only one mafia or seth is a third party role?)

a lot of day 1 was consumed by the fight between rabid and jake, which seems to be common for jake but not for rabid. at least according to y'all; i haven't yet had the time to read any of their completed games. the aggression from rabid makes sense if rabid has a provable town role and a neighborhood outside of the game thread to discuss any information with since it serves the purpose of helping to determine the alignment of anyone pushed upon as well as helping to determine the alignment of those within the neighborhood. what is strange, though, is rabid's disappearance following the fight with jake, so i guess i'd like to ask nero and bingle if rabid has remained active in the neighborhood thread or if they've gone dark there as well. from jake's perspective, as far as i can tell, a prolonged fight with a provable member of town is expressly anti-town, but if this is a pattern (getting banned from a mafia forum is loose) it's likely ego and NAI. the fight pulled attention from rabid's push onto chemist (4 of chemist's 9 posts are direct responses to rabid, 1 is a hello, 1 is a naked vote of luna [assumed to be retaliation for luna's vote], 1 is a question posed to rabid about how important it is to clear yourself [which doesn't really make sense given that rabid said they could prove they were town], 1 is the retraction of said naked vote, and 1 [posted two days after the rest] is a gut read of not mafia)

really dislike OGI so i'm willing to nullify all of kage's posts. the only posts from bingle which stuck out to me were the discussion of not mafia's role with chidd which seemed, uh, anti-town at best? what possible benefit does that have from either of their perspectives? chidd's push on not mafia is frustrating in general since not mafia's posts show clear game solving when there are more than a handful of more or less non-participants (including seeming widely townread garmr)

Fake/Chemist/?

^^^ this posted at a time when jake was diffusing rabid push and taking the game away from any sort of productivity seems especially notable.

a few other quick notes:

i'm not convinced the bob slot could pass a turing test. feels like they reverse engineered the 20 questions bot and let it loose in a mafia forum so it out here posting aimless questions which have largely gone unanswered

i liked chkflip voting non for three naked votes and no other content but it consumes too much of their iso.

the arguments in favor of lynching within the neighborhood seem to be 1/3 to hit, if we hit we win since one mafia down and two confirmed town, which is much greater than random so definitely plus EV. though, once again, i don't know the possible setups so grain of salt. what does tomorrow look like if we vote within the neighborhood and miss? it seems unlikely a mafia within a closed subset would vote within that subset, but i'd like to hear more from rabid as to why they're voting nero or if this is just a gambit planned within their neighborhood.

VOTE: nero

[team rocket queen]

VOTE: VOTE: nero

[team rocket queen]

VOTE: nero

sorry

[team rocket queen]

VOTE: trq

534 is god tier levels of gross. She shades like half the thread while avoiding making any real points about any of them, then sheeps a case she doesn't understand from one of the players she is shading onto a player she doesn't otherwise mention to put pressure behind a wagon that isn't the largest option.

i'm reading rabid town? if that wasn't clear. i had a null read on both the largest wagon (chkflip) and nero, but i'm reading both not mafia and rabid as town and they were both on nero so i voted there. i'm going to follow rabid onto clidd now, since clidd was on the more egregious side of your discussion about not mafia's role and i'm reading rabid town and rabid has access to more information than me. rabid was also more than 50% of the reason i was on nero. from the setup info it seems that neighbors have a random chance of being mafia so slightly more than 50% to have one within the neighborhood if we account for rerolling any setups where 2 or 3 of the mafia are within the neighborhood. so instead of the 33% to hit from my last post it's more like 17% to hit from lynching within the neighborhood, which is less than the 23% to hit at random. probably what you meant by the doesn't understand bit. anyway,

UNVOTE:

VOTE: cliddVOTE:

[team rocket queen]

VOTE: clidd

[team rocket queen]

from the setup info it seems that neighbors have a random chance of being mafia

No, the game designer determines whether neighbors are town or scum. It's not random.

oh, so the numbers don't mean anything, and the people who want to lynch within the neighborhood simply think that the game designer is likely (would have to be 70ish% likely to = random lynch) to put mafia in the neighborhood.

[team rocket queen]

from the setup info it seems that neighbors have a random chance of being mafia

No, the game designer determines whether neighbors are town or scum. It's not random.

oh, so the numbers don't mean anything, and the people who want to lynch within the neighborhood simply think that the game designer is likely (would have to be 70ish% likely to = random lynch) to put mafia in the neighborhood.

Last time I searched (and I’ll do it again when I get to work) the percentage was higher than 70% one scum in neighborhood with 3 people.

is there a searchable database with all of the completed games played on site that includes their setup and role flips? it seems a lot to compile yourself

"i had a null read on both the largest wagon (chkflip) and nero, but i'm reading both not mafia"

- If you don't consider them both mafia, you feel they are town, so how can you have a null read ?

this seems a convenient abbreviation of that quote

i had a null read on both the largest wagon (chkflip) and nero, but

i'm reading both not mafia and rabid as town and they were both on nero so i voted there.

not mafia is a player in this game. my null on chkflip is a lean town but i'd like more content, as i said in my first post. my null on nero is largely due to the fact i have to reread their iso to recall much beyond animated avatar and had posted the most up-to-date vote count as of my entry.

i liked chkflip voting non for three naked votes and no other content but it consumes too much of their iso.

"i'm going to follow rabid onto clidd now, since clidd was on the more egregious side of your discussion about not mafia's role"

- What was discussed was the behavior of N_M, regardless of his alignment, and the relationship of his slot to the benefit of the lynch policy. I don't see how this fits in as a justification for voting on me.

The most scummy player is

Not_Mafia

, in my opinion. I can't imagine such sporadic behavior as town.

The specific post you quoted was actually +town equity. Serious question, have you ever played with nm?

No, I never played with him. That post wasn't town equity.

Why does scum soft a role that is more often scum than town?
Why does town soft a role that is more often scum than town?
Why is either incentivized not to?

The second has a legitimate answer that isn’t “for the memes.”

While odds are that nm did it for the memes, the fact that there is a large reason for scum him to hold the information close to his chest means that, yeah, it’s more likely town than scum.

and, this from my first post:

the only posts from bingle which stuck out to me were the discussion of not mafia's role with chidd which seemed, uh, anti-town at best? what possible benefit does that have from either of their perspectives? chidd's push on not mafia is frustrating in general since not mafia's posts show clear game solving when there are more than a handful of more or less non-participants (including seeming widely townread garmr)

In post 55, Not_Mafia wrote:
Fake/Chemist/?


^^^ this posted at a time when jake was diffusing rabid push and taking the game away from any sort of productivity seems especially notable.

and since then, bingle has made a clearing to possible clearing claim in the neighborhood (i assume), leaving only you involved in what seems to be a glaring anti-town exchange to me.

"i'm reading rabid town"

- I would like to know your impressions about the aggressive stance that he showed most expressively at the beginning of the game.

the aggression from rabid makes sense if rabid has a provable town role and a neighborhood outside of the game thread to discuss any information with since it serves the purpose of helping to determine the alignment of anyone pushed upon as well as helping to determine the alignment of those within the neighborhood. what is strange, though, is rabid's disappearance following the fight with jake,

feel like i answered this exact question in my first post. two of my last three posts have now been responses to people i wasn't town reading (though, again, i was likely wrong on bingle if "developments in the hood" are to be believed), which consisted largely of clarification and quoting myself. this is why i mainly asked questions to and about rabid. the games in which town is able to talk to town and simply push on other slots seem to be the games town wins.

[team rocket queen]

not a database. Good old CTRL F - viewtopic.php?f=53&t=29549

from this i found 7 games with 3 person neighborhoods, 5 of which contained 1 mafia, 1 contained 0 mafia, and 1 contained 2 mafia. there were also 1 game with 4 neighbors, 2 games with 5 neighbors, and 1 game with 6 neighbors, all of which contained 1 mafia. i don't know if the 5 neighbor games were split into 3/2 but the 6 neighbor game contained two 3 person neighborhoods, one of which contained 2 mafia.

6/7 or 7/9 > 70% but these aren't relevant sample sizes.

TRQ is trying to word count / effort town points and it's failing.

The vote switch when questioned is terrible as well.

you thought non was scummy for not participating and empty voting and you think i'm scummy for participating but you also said it's scummy for me to switch my vote and thus not scummy for you to keep your vote where it is so it makes sense from your perspective i guess.

- How is someone null and lean town at the same time?

i thought lean town was abbreviation for null leaning town. that's how i've always read it.

- If you notice in my post 458, I compared the meta between two players that I considered options for lynch policy. Just as I kept myself open to other views, without ignoring anyone. So much so, that I stagnated my progress in N_M, precisely because I believed that other approaches would be better. This fragment seems to suggest that I was considering only one option, when in reality, I demonstrated that I was evaluating other possibilities.

Maybe.
But I'm curious as to why clidd focuses on NM and ignores Non.

you only did this after luna brought it to your attention

- Ok, can you explain the reasoning that connects post 55 and the text below? what does N_M post citing two names with the alleged event have to do ?

not mafia linked the two as a potential mafia team for jake distracting from rabid's push on chemist very early in a way that would have very little mafia motivation for doing so other than to be townread for it, which, based on not mafia's other posts, seems unlikely. it's possible that i've given too much credit to this moment since i had the same thought reading the thread and that always comes with some amount of built in bias. still seems strange to me that no one else seemed to care much about the connection and then chemist disappeared from the game.

- Nonsense. It seems a fallacy that you quote that ''bingle has made a clearing to possible clearing claim in the neighborhood'' necessarily has the consequence of "leaving only you involved in what seems to be a glaring anti-town exchange to me''. I would like you to explain that part cohesively.

bingle says they've claimed in the neighborhood and none of the neighbors dispute this. just as with rabid, this should be read as town for now because the claims can be sorted out later. unlike rabid, bingle hasn't said they can prove themselves town which is likely why they've said they will have to be lynched later. if rabid is mafia he's already caught, which is why it's so strange to me that people have said they want to lynch him today. if it's an anti-town discussion and i'm reading one of the two people involved as town, that leaves the other.

- Actually, the explanations for aggression vary. I have seen the same behavior being performed by VT players, without access to a communication channel. This whole pseudo-observation seems very generic and forced, especially due to the addition of the "neighborhood", which is a peculiarity that has already been mentioned publicly in this game.

it makes sense to me that someone who has a provable town role and a neighborhood to discuss any results with would play very aggressively. that's not to say that other people can't play aggressively, simply that his aggression seems very logical to me.

No. I have no intention of answering. All you're doing is asking questions in order to look busy.

it generally feels like chidd is baiting me into mass replying.

it's very odd to me that rabid's other lynch targets did not gain any steam but here we are;

VOTE: chkflip

[team rocket queen]

i saw that rabid had voted on chkflip while i was working on my post, so i was adding an intent to hammer paragraph (which basically would have said that i thought bingle, not mafia and rabid were town thus 3/9 to hit mafia by lynching, plus at least 4 of the people voting on chkflip had to be town, which has to be weighted towards greater than random, making it at least 40% to hit), but when i refreshed the thread i saw this:

I win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.

which i thought was basically a self-vote/scum claim because if they were town they'd be modkilled for quoting their role pm. so i deleted the paragraph, added my vote, and hit submit.

That would've made TRQ pause before actually lynching chkflip.

i did pause. i thought about it quite a bit while i was reading and writing. but then chkflip scum claimed and i was so sure. i thought i'd be confirmed town and that you were basically openwolfing after the lynch, but alas. i guess either i don't understand the rules or chkflip was going to be modkilled and i acted prematurely. admittedly, i didn't really consider that beforehand so if i cost us a lynch (i don't know if modkills end the day) that's on me.

[team rocket queen]

TRQ what do you think the mood around chkflip lynch was like around the end of the day.

How many players do you think scum read him

The mood of a group can be telling.

three or four, and since a lot of the game was inactive that seemed like half of the game to me. the neighbors i thought of as confirmed were included. rabid also said this lynch would give us additional information, and his other lynches weren't gaining momentum.

He wasnt quoting his role PM, he was typing words that are a town wincondition whether they really are or not (They are!), abusing the fact that the mod didnt put a sample role PM and scum wouldn't be able to know how the town wincon was worded.
Admiteddly, yes, that's a really dirty way to get town read, but if you were town, you wouldn't have lynched someone that has shared information that only town supposedly know.
At worst he could be scum with a sample town role PM in his PT, but that would be another option to explore. I understand that you may be concerned about the rules, but if you thought a modkill was coming for him due to the wincon posting why not stop yourself from voting? A hammer or a modkill on town end in the same result anyway and the later needs to go through listmods anyway, and if it wasnt against the rules then the mod wouldn't have intervened and we'd have a conf town due to a mod error. Doesnt sound like a towny mindset for me still.

i guess i don't understand what "quoting his role PM" means since that's a direct quote from my role pm minus the pronoun. i thought the modkill was only coming if he was town, which as i said before i didn't fully consider and thought he was scum for it.

Chkflip (7) Nero Cain, Luna Fox, Robbnva, Garmr, Bingle, Not_Mafia, team rocket queen
Nero Cain (1) Rabid Schnauzer
Garmr (1) Bob3141
Non Lmh (1) chkflip
Not Voting (3) Clidd, Chemist1422, Rick Dalton

That’s Hammer!

Mod Note: Clidd Requests Replacement.

No

i think this vote count is wrong because rabid voted chkflip that morning before me.

[team rocket queen]

Doesn’t matter who the hammer was really but trq seeing the post and voting is bad. I say that’s a scum claim

how would i not see it? it shows you any posts that happened while you were typing?

So your sayign when you hammered you didnt see anyone lese who wanted to vote chkflip

i saw the people voting for chkflip, and i saw luna robb and rabid and saying it'd give us additional information. bingle went onto chkflip and clidd seemed opposed to it and voted rabid, then rabid voted clidd and then chkflip.

To any towny that claim would mark chkflip as sure town. So why the vote TRQ, did you think he was a pr

in retrospect i think i just really wanted to hammer mafia in my first game.

[team rocket queen]

So what struck out to you that chkflip was sure scum when you hammered him?

is this intentional?

i saw that rabid had voted on chkflip while i was working on my post, so i was adding an intent to hammer paragraph (which basically would have said that i thought bingle, not mafia and rabid were town thus 3/9 to hit mafia by lynching, plus at least 4 of the people voting on chkflip had to be town, which has to be weighted towards greater than random, making it at least 40% to hit), but when i refreshed the thread i saw this:

In post 675, chkflip wrote:
I win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.


which i thought was basically a self-vote/scum claim because if they were town they'd be modkilled for quoting their role pm. so i deleted the paragraph, added my vote, and hit submit.

[team rocket queen]

Thats not reason to hammer him. If he was to be mod killed then it would mean he was town. If he wasnt town then he wouldnt be modkilled

Im asking you waht about his play made you think he was scum?

i thought he wouldn't want to be modkilled because then he'd be banned and was therefore scum. it made my 40% feel like a 100%. checking the banlist now shows that the last 4 people banned were all involved in this game though, so maybe this isn't a concern.

[team rocket queen]

So your saying that you thought he wouldnt have made such a post if he was town. And that you hammer was just based on the fact taht you didnt think he would risk being banned.

Did you think any part of his wincon claim was fake.


So that why you said you didnt do intent instead. But give us your reason for thinking chkflip was scum before that post?

i thought he was frustrated scum self-voting, so i hammered. i didn't know role pms weren't standard across the site beforehand.

i was reading him scum before that for pushing on my slot by saying non was scummy for inactivity and i was scummy for activity, and him saying it was scummy that i moved my vote seemed like it was trying to justify him not moving his vote.

Please make it happen. Cause if town ends up listening to scum dalton I definitely don’t want to be around to see it.

I don’t think you’ve ever correctly read me and you’re wrong about me here but please get me Lynched. You’re bad for town so I don’t want to be around to watch you lose the game for us.

did you begin to townread rick between these two posts? how can rick lose the game for town if he is scum?

This basically matches mine word for word.

mine too. i think rabid is trying to draw attention to the fact that he pointed out what was different about it in this post:

Not sure what the point of this was, but...that's not how my role PM is worded.

by putting emphasis where he did but i may be wrong.

also, something strange happened between posts 833 and 838 but i don't want to quote them all and i don't know what to make of it.

[team rocket queen]

VOTE: Chemist

i am slightly wary after yesterday. is there a case against chemist beyond afk after you pushed on him early?

Also, the argument that trq is confscum for the hammer because

clidd

should have been conftown is pretty baffling, tbh.

Luna Fox
Garmr
Robbnva
Not_Mafia

clidd

Chemist1422
Rick Dalton
bob3141
team rocket queen

That's where I was at (minus people in the neighborhood) last night. I'm not interested in a trq lynch today with a potential clear there. I'm not interested in a neighborhood lynch. I feel less strongly about N_M than I did. Everything else remains largely unchanged.

VOTE: bob

I should be the lynch specifically tomorrow, I think.

it is easy to mistake the lynch for the night kill, especially since both their names started with c. however, leaving a dead player in your reads list seems odd; almost like we're supposed to notice it and think, "ah yes, bingle must be town".

also, advocating that we reveal all of the roles and then lynch you tomorrow seems very strange to me. there isn't any town role in the link rabid provided earlier in the game that town benefits from lynching.

Actually tomorrow isnt too bad if we mislynch today.

if we mislynch and then massclaim and lynch bingle as he says and hes town, then there will be three mafia players left and four town.

[team rocket queen]

If trq is an alt, he broke site rules by inning in the newbie queue as a newbie. There's no evidence of this.

i joined the newbie q but the game was taking a bit to fire so i /ined to some other random game and pmed a mod about a replacement game. in retrospect this might not have been a good idea.

This, however implies at least a passing familiarity with mafia in general. From this paragraph, it is likely that trq's origin is largely based on Opens/SemiOpens.

i watched some dailymafia on twitch and i wanted to play but i'm too self conscious about the video aspect so i searched around the internet and ended up here.

I'm going to claim first tomorrow and then we're going to have a dayphase and then we're going to lynch me.

was the plan to bet the game on you being right with your vengeful if there were still three mafia alive?

No he’s not conf town. There is no vengeful

doesn't this not make sense? if bingle is scum and not vengeful voluntarily going from 6 town 2 mafia to 5 town 1 mafia is ???

[team rocket queen]

Based on this I'm comfortable saying NC/trq isn't the scumteam. In fact, I'd be confident saying that there is at most one scum here:


In post 711, TrueSoulEnergy wrote:
Chkflip (7) Nero Cain, Luna Fox, Robbnva, Garmr, Bingle, Not_Mafia, team rocket queen

that vote count still not correct, rabid was on the wagon and not mafia voted after the lynch. the second wagon was almost identical, but not mafia was actually the hammer on that one and robb and i weren't on it.

I’ve already explained. Why are you’re not paying attention?

your 'explanation' is that bingle is lying and won't get lynched, but isn't this easily solved by lynching him. i don't get it.

[team rocket queen]

your 'explanation' is that bingle is lying and won't get lynched, but isn't this easily solved by lynching him. i don't get it.

VOTE: bingle

[team rocket queen]

They saw the win con. Didn’t recognize it. Hammered.

i did recognize it. i saw the win con and thought "ah, we can't post that so he must be scum!".

I mean that and the fact that RD tried to cover for her.

i think rick thought i might get lynched and wanted to look good if i did

[team rocket queen]

bingle - only makes sense to me that he's telling the truth

luna - i think calling me scum and then being swayed by ricks argument only makes sense as mafia if they planned on taking me into the late game, but this seems pretty plausible.

robb - probably town since the little remarks from rick meant to get a response from robb don't really make sense if they're partners and plan to keep sniping at eachother

nero - the strongest case to me is that he's in the neighborhood so by process of elimination mafia. i looked for the scumhunting in his iso as instructed and failed to find it, but i think that's true of a lot of players in this game.

garmr - makes sense as mafia with not mafia due to repeatedly misrepresenting the day one wagon in order to not include not mafia in the off the wagon category. otherwise probably town.

not mafia - i don't know. early on it felt like a playstyle thing that they were still communicating information via but recently all i've gotten from them is willingness to hammer anyone and 'luna scum'

gobble - it's nice to see someone trying to move the game, but i can't tell the motivation. i think town because the not moving felt frustrating, as we've been kinda demoralized since the end of day 1.

[team rocket queen]

Chkflip (7) Nero Cain, Luna Fox, Robbnva, Garmr, Bingle, Not_Mafia, team rocket queen

You are wrong I didn't do that.

not mafia voted after i hammered, rabid was sixth on the wagon, the mod messed up the vote count.

[team rocket queen]

i think this vote count is wrong because rabid voted chkflip that morning before me.

that vote count still not correct, rabid was on the wagon and not mafia voted after the lynch. the second wagon was almost identical, but not mafia was actually the hammer on that one and robb and i weren't on it.

[team rocket queen]

In a way, I think this is the best post this dayphase, actually.

in what way?

i guess i will

UNVOTE:

since the plan is now to eliminate two town while leaving many questions unanswered for tomorrow. i still think you are telling the truth and your lynch makes sense; if you told me you were going to kill someone else i'd put my vote back, even if it were a maybe. it makes me give added weight to robb's theory, but the solution to that is still to lynch you.

if you're worried that i won't be able to solve the game, i think i am pretty close. if nero is town and has a clear on garmr, then he's likely right about the mafia being gobble/not mafia. if nero is scum i think luna is the most likely partner.

preview edit: hmm. so one of garmr/nero/bingle have to be scum here? cause either garmr is lying, nero is lying, or bingle is lying about nero?

[team rocket queen]

I have a innocent on me so I wouldn't be lying in any scenario....

this makes sense because the innocent from nero is the reason you're saying nero is lying, so if you're lying to get nero lynched it doesn't work unless nero somehow got a false positive.

[team rocket queen]

VOTE: nero

[team rocket queen]

garmr basically confirmed town, don't think mafia would sacrifice a partner like that. luna seems most likely partner to nero and rick, as i said yesterday. she says it's me and i say it's her. i view the game very similarly to her otherwise though, which is kinda weird.

I probably die tonight

you've said this twice now and i had to check to see if you were confirmed somehow and i missed it. kinda feels like you're trying to get two quick lynches and win.

i think dkkoba is town because of robb. (i miss robb. he always called me he/him. made me feel butch.) still don't know about not mafia

[team rocket queen]

Vote yourself

i do understand the desire to hammer.

[team rocket queen]

What are your reads? I hope this game/experience does not sour you from playing our site. You seem like a nice person and I personally think you are playing this game well as either alignment.

well thankyou. my reads are pretty much the same as yesterday. i think luna is most likely mafia, followed by not mafia. i wish i had a way to determine your alignment for sure, because i think it solves the game. i think that's what dkkoba was trying to do here:

As for mechanics, IMO garmr goes on the gobble,

but, i am pretty sure this plan does not work. if i get lynched, and then garmr and gobble die in the night, how is dkkoba supposed to determine which of not mafia and luna are mafia (assuming that he is not the remaining mafia) with any degree of certainty? do we play for almost a week and then press the i-am-55%-sure button?

[team rocket queen]

*almost a month

[team rocket queen]

Why did you think this TRQ?

she voted me at the beginning of day two, and then rick defended me and she agreed with rick and moved her vote. like they didn't want to lynch me because i was a liability or whatever.

and because she said nero's alignment would become obvious and said he was super easy to read, and then she said he was town based on her meta of him, which she never explained but did always include 'if my NC meta is correct' as part of her reasoning, like it would be easy for her to say, oh my meta was wrong, instead of needing to give any explanation if need be. and then the next day she started wavering on nero, like she never believed the read in the first place.

and she defended me from robb at the end of day 2 while saying she didn't know why people were scumreading bob but then bingle posted and she voted bob shortly thereafter.

but then she immediately went back to calling me scum.

[team rocket queen]

@penguinpower you can release the mafia pt. it's embarassing, but w/e. not going to ask to have all my posts redacted. thankyou for modding.

gg town

rick, you're a hero, sorry i ruined your streak.