mini 2126: the game is OVRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[northsidegal]

they aren't!

They are, mostly.

Some players like NSG don't try as scum, a massive advantage to town games.

I try as scum. There is essentially nothing left for me to achieve on this website other than to be recognized as someone with a capable scumgame. I have very few other goals left to attain.

All that being said, I am not good at scum, at least on this account. A lot of it is mental.

[northsidegal]

All that being said, I didn't join this game just to talk about myself, nor to rebut eddie (whom I have no read on as of yet) and talk about myself. I joined because the playerlist is too good to pass up.

[northsidegal]

I even gave it 24 hours of consideration before finally messaging schadd.

[northsidegal]

I've found Alch pretty historically hard to read, so no promises.

[northsidegal]

I try as scum. There is essentially nothing left for me to achieve on this website other than to be recognized as someone with a capable scumgame. I have very few other goals left to attain.

Meant it more facetiously, ie you are a very easy read. Are you Dannflor?

If I was would I really be here playing this game instead of out there charming all the ladies?

[northsidegal]

Sigh, you scum NSG?

Is that a joke?

[northsidegal]

To answer your earlier question: no, I have not read the game, no, I did not look at Dannflor's ISO and townread him.

[northsidegal]

now i remember why i only play games on alts.

[northsidegal]

eddie is actually the one person i've ISO'd this game, and i think that we share a lot of the same opinions about his play. i think i'd like to get a better read of the rest of the game before committing to anything, but right now i don't see myself coming to the conclusion that i outright

shouldn't

vote him, if that makes any sense.

[northsidegal]

also i saw one post from you that i felt was strongly town (which is rare for me trying to read you), so i'm interested to hear from your voters why that's a thing, i guess.

i'm actually not sure how much i should be paying attention to current reads before i finish reading through the game. i think that avoiding being "primed" with people's current reads is actually pretty helpful for reading through the game with an open mind.

[northsidegal]

i'm 20% through the game. people who i currently think lean town are penguin, clidd, oka, and luna. if i were to be 100% correct in those townreads, it would leave me with a pool of 3 scum in 6 players. 50% isn't so bad.

[northsidegal]

You have every right to be mad, but also most people who voted you probably did so to put pressure on you to post since youve been away from thread for 3 days while existing elsewhere on site soo

i think voting people who are outright gone rather than just posting infrequently is actually a really bad idea, personally.

[northsidegal]

"defies my normal expectations (ignoring established rules)"
>60:40 imbalance	18/21
SK	12/21
multiball	16/21
greylist	4/21
reminding PRs when they holster	9/21
<8day deadline	5/21
duplicate PRs among town	0/21
more than half PRs among town	6/21
100% PRs among mafia	1/21
variance in mafia kill ability	12/21
transparent/alignment indicative setup pattern	7/21
transparent/AI moderator design habits	5/21
confirmed setup absences	3/21
confirmed setup presences	4/21
me as mod	5/21
"i generally dislike"
cop	7/21
gunsmith	3/21
pgo	13/21
town millers	6/21
ascetic townies	1/21
general negative utility	4/21
ascetic mafia	3/21
mafia ninja	7/21
traitors	10/21
high power setups	6/21
low power setups	2/21
people being shitty	20/21
implosion	6/21

[northsidegal]

is there a point to that NSG?

it's pretty much for myself for later, i have a lot of random tabs open and it's getting to be a pain hunting through all of them.

so, no, i guess.

[northsidegal]

honestly? i have no idea, and it wouldn't be a short process to go count. there's also the fact that i'm probably also considering games that i've only read where i was trying to figure out your alignment but wasn't actually in the game.

[northsidegal]

i think either comical and RCE are both town or they're both scum, based off of what i expect from schadd's design. i don't think it's likely that one is town and the other is scum, from what i know so far.

[northsidegal]

my statement made the prior assumption that both players were actually gunsmiths of some form--town or scum--which i consider the most likely scenario (although i don't really believe comical's modifier for a second).

if rce is actually a goon then that situation is possible, but based on how the claims went down i guess i would consider that somewhat unlikely?

[northsidegal]

like, let's run through the scenario of goon RCE and comical telling the truth. RCE gets just "a guilty" claimed on him by comical, "misinterprets" (depending on if you believe it or not) it as being some kind of tracker guilty and claims even-night, saying that it's impossible because he hasn't visited anyone yet. then, when comical claims that he has a gun, he again "misunderstands", thinking that gunsmiths don't get positives on themselves (if you believe it or not) and considers the scenario between them to be direct counterclaims.

i think this is actually something of a complicated scenario that warrants a great deal of thought, but one thing that already comes to mind is this: would goon RCE, thinking that someone claimed a tracker guilty on him and assuming that he didn't actually visit anyone (i.e. perform the NK) claim even-night rather than just deny the claim?

[northsidegal]

my statement made the prior assumption that both players were actually gunsmiths of some form--town or scum--which i consider the most likely scenario (although i don't really believe comical's modifier for a second).

if rce is actually a goon then that situation is possible, but based on how the claims went down i guess i would consider that somewhat unlikely?

How likely do you consider it that Comical is scum Gunsmith and RCE is Town Gunsmith?

(Important note: Comical is Flavor Leaf/Boonskiies.)

i know, that's partly why i don't trust 6-shot for a second. and like i said, based purely off of schadd's previous designs and what i know of his design philosophy, i think that alternate alignments of the same role is less likely than similar alignments sharing a role, town or scum.

i also think that there are other, more game-related things that make scum comical and town RCE make less sense. granted, boon's mind works in mysterious ways (especially when it comes to roles), but if he's scum here with a real gunsmith result on RCE, why out it?

[northsidegal]

I seem to get pushed on bad reasoning merely because I have more content and it's easier to find reasons to scumread me

this is actually pretty contrary to what i think. i've found that the number one correlation with dropping on people's readslists and getting lynched is a lack of thread presence (and yes, this is confirmed through people who are not me and do not have my meta). literally just showing up to the thread often and saying anything goes a pretty significant way towards not getting lynched, i think.

of course, once you've gotten past that step there are obviously still considerations and that's probably where what you're talking about would come in, but still.

[northsidegal]

yes.

[northsidegal]

why do you ask?

[northsidegal]

fyi around the time i quoted that schadd poll and for a bit after that i stopped reading to review schadd's old normals, what your rate of killing power roles is when you're scum and the same for flavor leaf, so there's probably some gaps.

[northsidegal]

on that second subject i have little to conclude except that i model you as someone who cares more about the players than the roles when it comes to determining nightkills, although as you've said (and as i agree) this isn't exactly a standard game for you.

i have never actually used this tell in a game before but some discussion over the nightkill reminded me of how mathdino killed a PR ever night he was alive as scum (allegedly), so it got me thinking.

[northsidegal]

i would be pretty surprised if schadd went for a mafia doctor this game.

[northsidegal]

assuming the gunsmiths are town, that is.

[northsidegal]

i should qualify that. if we have one or more vigilantes this game (which is less likely given only one kill night 1, but still possible), then a mafia doctor is possible (maybe even likely). absent that though, i don't see gunsmiths vs one mafia doctor being this setup's concept.

[northsidegal]

by the way eddie, you hear the news?

momo's back

[northsidegal]

i keep coming back to these same three names: alchemist, auro, zulfy/idany.

[northsidegal]

/in XP

it's actually his birthday today

[northsidegal]

i don't consider it suspicious that you claimed 6-shot, just so you know. i just distrust it somewhat, i guess.

[northsidegal]

haha, looks like i've got good timing.

[northsidegal]

Like I absolutely don’t see how this is a town mindset. This is hard pushing a subtle scum agenda.

could you elaborate on what it is about my genuine opinion on my expectations of schadd's design that you cannot see as coming from town?

why is it that you see a long-term partner strategy based on (i assume you think i'm) lying about schadd's mod meta as more likely than any alternative explanation?

[northsidegal]

nsg are you fully caught up?

no, i'm stopped around page 73 because i felt myself getting a little reading fatigued. currently looking through the open challenge setups.

[northsidegal]

I absolutely dotthink you’re lying about mod meta. That would just end up hurting you in the long run.

Scum don’t lie about that kind of thing.

if you think i'm telling the truth about my opinion of what schadd would do, i'm not really sure i understand why you see what i'm saying as more likely to come from scum than town. if i'm telling the truth, what makes it a truth more likely to have come from scum than to have come from town, even if you can plausibly see a narrative where it makes sense as me being scumbuddies with RCE? or, to put it another way, why can't you see a narrative where it makes sense as me being town—or if you can see that narrative, why is it less likely than the alternative?

[northsidegal]

THIS IS A GREAT SCUM GAME EDDIE YOU'VE MANAGED TO MAKE ME ONE VOTE SHORT AND IM STUCK HERE IN SUSPENSEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

nsg already came to the right conclusion that the fire kill clears me on the last page, lmao

that's not at all what i was saying. actually, i disagree with that.

[northsidegal]

i wish i could do the real life equivalent of a flavor leaf 12 post series

[northsidegal]

i agree that idany is this game's designated "least charismatic player" default lynch, but i'm also forced to recognize that that doesn't automatically make him town. sometimes the simple solutions are correct

(this isn't me agreeing with an idany lynch today, just musing on how i'm thinking about his slot, i guess)

[northsidegal]

what do you expect scum idany would have done in that situation?

[northsidegal]

Oka, what's your least favorite fruit?

don't give oka fruit, chickens aren't meant to eat that

[northsidegal]

i think that, ignoring any other reason to townread oka, 2075 locks him as town.

i think that this will go unappreciated. possibly it deserves to, but i don't think so.

[northsidegal]

i think that, ignoring any other reason to townread oka, 2075 locks him as town.

i think that this will go unappreciated. possibly it deserves to, but i don't think so.

i agree that post was townie, i do not agree it locks him as town.

"locks" might be an exaggeration, at least in a vacuum.

i'll say that the rest of oka's content gives me no reason to doubt the conclusion from that post. i might say the opposite, really.

[northsidegal]

Who we lynching nsg?

One of {Eddie, Alchemist, Auro, Dany}, I think.

[northsidegal]

i really don't think oka should get a mango, but it's up to you really

[northsidegal]

i really don't think oka should get a mango, but it's up to you really

Who should get "the fruit"

what are your thoughts on alchemist?

[northsidegal]

if you actually gunsmith me and you're town you are outright bad at the game of mafia

[northsidegal]

nsg you should let comical gunsmith you

why? it'd be a waste

penguin, working on a response to you now

[northsidegal]

nsg you should let comical gunsmith you

why? it'd be a waste

penguin, working on a response to you now

i can protect you tonight and no further and odds are with a setup like this we aren't going to be allowed to play follow the gunsmith for the entire game (aka im the only protective - and i am gated)

so if you want people to trust you for your limited window, then getting you smithed would be ideal

i don't think i need the assistance of being cleared to get people to trust or townread me. in fact, i think it would make the game a lot harder to solve if this valuable limited resource were wasted on a slot who—according to other people—shouldn't be difficult to solve at all.

I think thinking there's two town gunsmiths, no mafia doctors, and no mafia role interference roles is pretty asinine.

Did Boon ever explain why he targeted RCE?

i don't necessarily think that there's no mafia role interference. i do think that, given what i know of the setup so far and given what i know of schadd, mafia doctors are fairly unlikely. i think going straight to mafia doctors is both a failure of imagination when it comes to thinking of mafia interference roles for gunsmiths and a serious misunderstanding of schadd's philosophy. based on what i know (and i am fully prepared to eat my words post game if i turn out to be wrong), schadd considers interactions like tracker + ninja to be intensely unfun, and i think he would consider a simple gunsmith + doctor setup to be along the same vein.

[northsidegal]

i really don't think oka should get a mango, but it's up to you really

Who should get "the fruit"

what are your thoughts on alchemist?

why alchemist? I wanted your thoughts.

he's in my scumpool (maybe i'm not up to date on how good mangoes are for your health), but i guess i'll go a bit more into my thoughts

i've already talked a little bit about why i townread oka but i guess it was only one post, so if you want more elaboration on that let me know and i guess i'll try to go back and grab some quotes. fair warning though, outside of the one that i already talked about i think that compared to other players in the game my read on oka isn't really one i'd be able to go back and give you specific posts that lead to the townread there. if you still disagree i'll try, though.

early game i townread clidd and so far i don't think SS has given me any reason to doubt that. there was something of a consensus early game that clidd's early posting was town – that opinion came from multiple sources that i both know to be town now (dannflor, firebringer) and people whose reads i trust. that's not

why

i have the read—I came to the read myself—but it certainly makes me feel better about it.

I know you disagree with me on this one, but I think Luna is town. I liked her very early interactions with Firebringer, I think that 371 is a unique combination of indignation and self-meta that comes from town more often than it comes from scum, and I think almost all of page 66 is town indicative for her. Yes, I know the irony of saying that I think self-meta is towny in a game with flavor leaf in it, but I guess I consider it on a person-by-person basis. She's probably the weakest of my townreads, but I still think she's town.

Comical and RCE are out of my lynchpool right now pretty much only because of their claims.


so that's something of how i arrived at the pool of {eddie, RCE, alchemist, auro}.

[northsidegal]

i think he would consider a simple gunsmith + doctor setup to be along the same vein.

Thing is, it isn’t a simple gunsmith and Doctor, and this is a borderline TMI.

What’s out and about are 2 Gunsmith claims, and in theory, there’s a killing role out there.

That makes sense to fill the mechanical puzzle extremely well in an exciting way.

Ninja+Tracker, yeah, that sucks. Gunsmith-Doctor-Vig? Yeah. That doesn’t.

This actually semi implies NSG is scum with RCE in a way.

Is there "in theory" a killing role out there, though? I've already said that my statement about mafia doctors being unlikely to be this setups "red herring" is predicated on a lack of killing roles. I can only go off of what I know, and at the moment I don't know that there are any killing roles in this setup—the fact that we only had one death night one increases the probability that that is the case, but only slightly.

[northsidegal]

Here's me stating it outright:

i should qualify that. if we have one or more vigilantes this game (which is less likely given only one kill night 1, but still possible), then a mafia doctor is possible (maybe even likely). absent that though, i don't see gunsmiths vs one mafia doctor being this setup's concept.

[northsidegal]

So you can think there are 2 Gunsmiths out there, which you are considering both town right now, no mafia doctors, and no killing roles.

That’s effectively 2 Cops. I do not agree with this setup spec, and I don’t believe it is genuine setup spec from you.

It would be ignorant of me to make a rash decision before I have more information.

I haven't said that I think there are no killing roles. I've said that I haven't observed any, and I currently have no reason to believe there are any.
I haven't said that the mafia have no interference roles. I haven't even said that I know outright that there are no mafia doctors. I've said that I think that, absent killing roles, a mafia doctor being this setup's "red herring" is unlikely.

[northsidegal]

Flavor Leaf - I am town this game. You will not succeed in lynching me. Whether you are town or scum, the sooner you realize this the more beneficial it will be for you.

[northsidegal]

stop setup speccing and focus on reads

there are extra bonuses and potentially negatives to my role that makes this more interesting

sure – i think there's too little information to really have anything super reliable anyways.

what do you think of 2517?

also, could you go a bit into why you scumread idany specifically? i also have him as a PoE scumread, but i'm not sure i have very many specific reasons to think that he's scum.

[northsidegal]

The only possible way he doesn’t have a gun is if him and I are both scum and he is a Maf Doctor.

if you're both scum all bets are off as to the truth of what you are saying, he doesn't have to be a mafia doctor

[northsidegal]

The only possible way he doesn’t have a gun is if him and I are both scum and he is a Maf Doctor.

if you're both scum all bets are off as to the truth of what you are saying, he doesn't have to be a mafia doctor

I mean, the main point is that he always has a gun unless he's a mafia doctor and boon is lying.
Because town him wouldnt claim gunsmith in the face of a gunsmith guilty true or otherwise.

yeah, i understand. that's correct, from what i can tell.

[northsidegal]

eddie, did you ever answer why you're playing like this this game?

[northsidegal]

eddie, did you ever answer why you're playing like this this game?

I dont think anybodies asked

i am asking right now.

[northsidegal]

why? your own amusement?

[northsidegal]

UNVOTE:

[northsidegal]

guys, flavor leaf does not have the required votes to lynch me or penguinpower today, it's not worth ballooning the game size to continue discussing

[northsidegal]

nsg gun to head please just pick i need a purpose in my life

i'm thinking, sorry.

[northsidegal]

do you think i could be scum eddie, or are you just enjoying yourself?

[northsidegal]

i notice that flavor leaf has a tendency to step on the gas pedal when called out, or perhaps in situations of high stress / tension. i first noticed this on page 22, around 533 — we see a big step up in his posting, and he goes from his previous more relaxed style more into his hyperactive style that people recognize him as FL with. this happens shortly after eddie notes that he appears to be talking to clidd as if he knows he's town, and dann votes him.

it it an outrageous hypothesis to suggest that it was something recent happening that triggered the current string of posting? or is it just a factor of him returning to the thread with lots to catch up on?

[northsidegal]

could you summarize why you consider me to be obviously scum?

[northsidegal]

NSG, please answer my question about why it's a bad idea to check you.

oh sorry, forgot about that.

first and foremost, i already know that i'm town. someone checking me does not help me solve the game in the slightest, and so i think it's natural that i would rather people i'm uncertain about be checked.

on a more meta level, i think few would disagree with the statement that my town game is noticeably distinct from my scumgame. and so if there are people whose town and scumgames are harder to tell apart, i think it's logical to say that mechanical checks are better used on them.

finally (and this is perhaps the weakest point), i think that i have already played fairly towny this game, and even if someone does not think so so far, if i survive to another day phase i think it will be more likely that they do given that amount of time. (that might've been worded poorly, but i hope i got the gist across)

i notice that flavor leaf has a tendency to step on the gas pedal when called out, or perhaps in situations of high stress / tension

And would you say this is AI? Does Boon not do the same (getting hyperactive when called out) as town, too?

i didn't say that he's doing it as scum. i don't know if it's alignment indicative. it's just something that i noticed.

i will say that i think flavor is playing fairly anti-town at the moment.

[northsidegal]

first and foremost, i already know that i'm town. someone checking me does not help me solve the game in the slightest, and so i think it's natural that i would rather people i'm uncertain about be checked.

But on the other hand, you are probably above average here in your ability to solve the game, so you need the help less than the rest of us.

in the first place i wouldn't necessarily agree to that, but wouldn't a non-me check help you just as much as it would help me, assuming the check also wasn't on you?

You've also admitted that one of the only things you have left to prove on this site is that you're capable as scum. That implies you would put in serious effort to win as scum now, thus voiding readability to an extent.

not in the slightest does that "void readability". understand this: i

always

put effort into scum. if you think that i didn't in team mafia, you don't understand the strategy me and my team were going for, ill-conceived as it may have been. effort does not always translate to results, especially when it comes to me playing scum.

here's what i'm not saying: that i'm incompetent at scum no matter how hard i try. here's what i am saying: there is no switch that i can flick and suddenly have a radically different scumgame. thinking that i wasn't putting effort into scum before and am now and thus cannot be read the same way is... well, it's a little insulting, but mostly the idea that i don't put effort in bothers me.

It's fine if you don't answer this, but can you point me to why your play has been fairly towny?

meh. i don't like turning things too much into the nsg show where i talk about myself a ton, but sure i guess.

[northsidegal]

meh. i don't like turning things too much into the nsg show where i talk about myself a ton, but sure i guess.

I promise I won't engage on that. I'm okay with just hearing what you think.

Spoiler: because auro asked

in the first place i've read almost all of the game chronologically, which i'm not sure i've ever done as scum replacing in.

the research i've done into schadd's mod meta and previous designs is something that i would never have done as scum, and if i did any setup spec at all it would be in the mafia PT and not in the main thread.

you don't know for certain that i actually did this and didn't just say i did, but i would never check eddie and FL's rate of how often they kill PRs when they're scum if i was scum.

i've taken notes when catching up this game, which i have never done as scum before. i haven't posted them for two reasons: one, because i think some people would consider it unsporting, and two, because i don't think it's necessary to do that kind of thing to get myself townread.

i wouldn't townread oka or luna if i were scum. there are plenty of instances of games i've played with oka where i've made it clear that i find him difficult to read such that there would be no reason for me to take some post entirely overlooked by the rest of the game and hold it up as proof of him being locktown. this may not be convincing, but i think it is true. luna i have enough knowledge of to know that i probably could not pocket her if i tried, and the reasoning for my townread on her does not make me look good enough to warrant it as a strategic decision.

there's probably more, but meh.

[northsidegal]

maybe ballooning to 113 pages was a bad idea if we wanted to get a replacement anytime soon

[northsidegal]

and im pretty sure all of us are cognizant of this because nobody is bothering to actually case each other

I can case NSG to some extent.

On entering the thread, she
>Talked about the unreadability of a few slots,
>Offered a lot of mechanical design-talk that didn't lead to anything particularly solid,
>Claimed an early lynch pool while also saying that gives a 50% chance of winning if right, which I feel is early preparation for mislynches
>Later expressed unwillingness to be checked

I recognize town motivation also for most of these, but I find them more likely from scum anyway. I think the last point would be moot if NSG provides an instance of her saying it in towngames, though.

unreadability of who? i said that i've found alchemist hard to read historically. is that scummy?

why are my thoughts as to schadd's setup philosophy more likely to come from scum? don't you think that if i wanted to use mechanical analysis as a way to avoid talking about reads or a way to get townread, i would actually make a specific effort to come to some conclusion?

i didn't offer an early lynch pool – literally the opposite. i had an early group of townreads, and it was an offhand comment that if i were correct in all of them, it would give a 50% chance of hitting scum in the rest of them. the idea that that's early preparation for mislynches is a little absurd.

i've never once thought that cop checking me was a good idea, and i think that my logic for that tracks pretty well? everyone knows that they're town, the only benefit to someone checking you is that everyone else would presumably know that as well. that isn't an advantage if you think it can happen anyways without the check, though.

You guys have a lot higher opinion of nsg than I do

am i still one of two people you super care about reads from this year?

Same. I think she's a great town player, but what's the fun in just blind sheeping her?

i would never expect or hope for people to blind sheep me. i'd probably outright stop playing games on this account if that started happening.

i don't think it's been happening, though.

[northsidegal]

you really think i could be scum, eddie?

[northsidegal]

you really think i could be scum, eddie?

Yes. And I think wagoning you is pro town while your lynch pool is generally people I lean town.

who am i townreading that i shouldn't be?

why should i be townreading you, auro, alchemist or idany?

[northsidegal]

I don't strongly townread Luna. I don't townread either of Comical or RCE, I just think that it doesn't make sense to lynch either of them today.

[northsidegal]

Sigh.
If people are just gonna ML me at some point im just gonna go back to no effort and joking around.

don't get me wrong, you are one of my townreads, i guess it's just that i feel like my reasons are stronger for my other townreads.

as long as i'm alive and nothing changes, i'm going to try to avoid your lynch.

[northsidegal]

haha, that's so completely disconnected from the reality of what anyone is saying.

[northsidegal]

honestly it sort of baffles me when people accuse others of "setting X up" where X is mislynches or wagons or whatever and they're talking like 50 pages in advance, when i feel like real reads shift suddenly and without that kind of narrative foreshadowing. like, i'm really setting excuses up for myself after a mislynch by saying "50%" in like my fifth post after replacing in, auro? i'm really setting up a luna fox wagon? for what century?

[northsidegal]

certainly some scum players leave things open for themselves when they know that they'll need to last a long time, but i suppose my point is that i think people tend to overestimate the degree to which both scum plans their reads in advance. i think people tend to overestimate the degree to which scum plan anything, actually.

[northsidegal]

right? very often people seem to have these grand ideas about what scum is doing in their PT or whatever, and then when you check it post-game it's something like "he looks pretty towny, let's kill him".

granted, it's obviously a person by person thing, but still.

[northsidegal]

of course, one might say that it's better to overthink when there isn't a scum plan than to underthink when there is a scum plan, but i'm not sure that's actually true. overthinking a lack of a scum plot in a game like mafia can, i feel, be just as dangerous as underthinking a real scum plot.

[northsidegal]

regardless of whose fault it is, it certainly feels worse to get lynched after trying your hardest as opposed to if you didn't put that much effort in.

it feels much worse to fail at anything after giving it your all than if you didn't try. this is why it's sometimes scary to really put your all in to something. it's more comforting to just never put your all in, because then you never have to worry about being badly burned.

[northsidegal]

and what sense would that be?

[northsidegal]

(i'm trying to say that i think you misunderstand something about my oka read.)

[northsidegal]

huh, you know i honestly was expecting to come back to "nsg didn't post yesterday, scumfirmed"

[northsidegal]

that warms my heart

[northsidegal]

honestly this is probably the first time a voyeur has gotten a result since 2006, and the first time it's been relevant since 1992

[northsidegal]

"your voyeur action on firebringer revealed that he was targeted by a killing action!"

oh, interesting

[northsidegal]

NSG is probably mafia.

should i be lynching you for saying this?

[northsidegal]

i'd vote alchemist. i'd like to get a replacement before ending the day, though.

[northsidegal]

would you vote rcenigma?

i'm generally of the mind to not lynch claimed PRs like that, although if you're asking for my read on him i was scumreading him day 1

I mean, me too but:

with 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. day 2 ends april 6th at 13:45 central US time; in (expired on 2020-04-07 13:45:00)

i'm going to be around to vote in that timeframe.

[northsidegal]

Based on this information, if OkaPoka is scum, he doesnt talk to a town Eddie like that throughout the day and then try to lynch him.

i think that this is a really good read. like, even if it ended up being wrong and oka was scum i would say that this was a good reason to townread him.

[northsidegal]

i actually think i would rather vote eddie over alchemist

[northsidegal]

i actually think i would rather vote eddie over alchemist

should i be lynching you for saying this?

is there an expectation that i should easily be able to read you?

[northsidegal]

honestly i don't actually think that alchemist's whole thing with oka being a gunsmith is scummy. he has some pretty bad lines ("Nobody's saying Oka's not Jailkeeper so I'll assume that's the case here.") but i can actually track his thought process about a scum gunsmith / jailkeeper pointing towards vigs and thus a scum jailkeeper protecting a partner. i'm not saying that i agree, but it feels like a pretty genuine and complex thought that seems unlikely to have been pulled from nothing by scum.

was there some change in the gamestate that caused alchemist to want to basically go in an entirely new direction – against oka, who people were starting to townread more? i don't think so. i feel like this post is fairly accurate:

alch you want to tell us why you scumclaimed

It's not a scumclaim. I challenge you to explain why scum me would correctly guess that you're Jailkeeper and then push you for it instead of quietly passing on the info to my scumteam?

And unless I'm scum with RCE, why would I as scum shake up the status quo when he was on track to being lynched?

[northsidegal]

i actually think i would rather vote eddie over alchemist

should i be lynching you for saying this?

is there an expectation that i should easily be able to read you?

You are the pargaon, right?

not this year – and i find this something of a hard to believe answer from you, and i think you know it. i think that your thoughts on my abilities and your thoughts on your abilities as a scum player would lead you to believe that you could easily outmaneuver me if you were scum.

(i also don't think that you put a lot of stock into scummies correlating with ability and so you wouldn't have phrased it like this unless the point was more for other people to agree with, but i don't have anything to back that up and it's possible you just worded it that way to be concise.)

[northsidegal]

SS, who are your scumreads / people you're willing to vote at this point?

[northsidegal]

i mean, obviously i recognized that you were echoing what i said to you. sorry for assuming that it meant anything at all?

[northsidegal]

why is a stick up your ass?

i care about winning. i was going to say something else to you in this post, but then i remembered that it's against the rules.

[northsidegal]

luna, what's your read on auro?

[northsidegal]

Ugh I don't like that I'm lynching NSG.
NSG, have you been able to form a read on me yet yourself?

i'd like to ask you the same question. to answer you, though, i guess i'll try to be pretty specific – i haven't seen anything from you that's really pushed me strongly one way or the other like i have for others but based on my reads for the rest of the game i still think that you are among the better lynches for today.

As scum NSG knows she can probably BoP-powerlynch another slot first

lol, this has never happened once ever

[northsidegal]

why is a stick up your ass?

i care about winning. i was going to say something else to you in this post, but then i remembered that it's against the rules.

this is so far off from how i remember you, damn.

we've only ever played a single game together. i have been told multiple times the very few times that i've chatted in discord that people are amazed how much less serious i am there than in games. i'm certain the same is probably true of various dead threads and such. maybe that's where this is coming from?

[northsidegal]

i'm not lying to you. it has never happened once, ever. check all the scumgames you want. it has never ever happened.

[northsidegal]

Yeah, I scumread you. Also, you mean you don't have any strong scumreads at all? Apologies if you stated them before.

i have people who i think i have good reasons to townread and then people who i feel no reason to townread. my reads look something like this right about now, i think:

{nsg}
{Oka, Luna}
{Penguin}
{SS}
{Alchemist}
{eddie, nero, auro, idany, comical}

How would you react as scum in positions of high pressure towards end of day?

realistically by disappearing.

[northsidegal]

auro, do you feel that you have an accurate understanding of how i play scum and what it looks like when i'm scum?

[northsidegal]

we've only ever played a single game together. i have been told multiple times the very few times that i've chatted in discord that people are amazed how much less serious i am there than in games. i'm certain the same is probably true of various dead threads and such. maybe that's where this is coming from?

that's not true? there was the game i was mafia and got guiltied, the game you were my traitor, and a few town ones when you were new iirc. and some 451 ones.

i had forgotten about the traitor one, that's right. as far as that, though, i use alts an an opportunity to basically play characters and try different playstyles. i'm surprised that you think i'm less fun this game than one as CoA, but whatever. as for 451 games, of those i have basically no memory, so i can't really speak to how i might've played there, although i imagine that it would be less serious.

the town ones when i'm new i don't think actually exist. first game we played together was the mini normal you got guiltied.

[northsidegal]

Right. Is Boon one of those forever null types to you?

i wouldn't policy nullread him but i imagine that i might be hard pressed to come to townreading him (i bet that i could come to scumreading him far easier, though. i spectated a scumgame of his early on in my career—mini normal 1969—where he got away with a gambit i could not believe, which made quite the impression. after that i told myself that i would never be fooled like the people in that game were)

See? Not doing it once as scum before doesn't mean you wouldn't now.

this has never been my argument.

i have people who i think i have good reasons to townread and then people who i feel no reason to townread.

Interesting - how many times has this specific situation occured where you only have town and nulls, without scumreads, D2?

i have no idea and i honestly doubt the relevance.

[northsidegal]

and just so you know – every scumgame of mine i would prefer to prove my ability, because every scumgame of mine inevitably ends up with someone calling me scum for disappearing. this goal is nothing new, and there is—as much as i wish this were

not

the case—no "effort" switch i can flip in my head to suddenly become much more adept at something simply because i theoretically would want it more.

[northsidegal]

i have no idea and i honestly doubt the relevance

You don't see the relevance?
On a surface level, if there are instances of this happening from town!NSG in the past, I don't need to think about whether this behaviour is really AI.

What's irrelevant about asking what lies outside my expectation from you something that's happened in the past?

i think there are so many variables at play that using the specific makeup of my reads on a specific day as a test for alignment is a fairly poor predictor. the playerlist and the number of players alive immediately come to mind as huge confounding variables.

also, as katyusha said and as i've come to agree with, the best meta reads are personality based rather than strictly content based. that's not to say that content-based reads are bad or never useful, but i've certainly been burned in the past by trying to fit various random predictors that i've come up with to someone's alignment.

[northsidegal]

you could do that, if you wanted. if you did all i have to say to you is "good luck". so, to go back to your original question – i have absolutely no idea if i've ever found myself on D2 with only townreads.

[northsidegal]

I never said you're scum if you haven't done it in the past, just that you're at worst null if there was an instance (purely from that variable). Hm.

i never said that you said that.

something did come to mind, though – off the top of my head i can't point you to an instance where day two i didn't have a scumread as town, but i'm certain that i couldn't point you to an instance where on day two i didn't have a scumread as scum.

[northsidegal]

Your dismissive attitude towards my asking that question implies you think it's a theoretically bad way to scumhunt, I'm showing the specific validity of such knowledge

Yes, I can agree with the latter, that squares with my expected behavior from you

i'm not trying to be dismissive, i'm sorry. i do genuinely think that that is not a very accurate way to scumhunt, and that's because i used to (and still do sometimes) try to do it all the time, and it backfired on me fairly consistently.

[northsidegal]

why do you expect me to townread you?

[northsidegal]

The fact that he claimed the same role as RCE is a red flag,

as is his insistence that Dany is town for basically no reason

.

i've also been thinking a bit about this.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: idany

[northsidegal]

VOTE: idany

why this over others?

i already told you about alchemist, and so between nero/dany i guess i'd prefer dany?

[northsidegal]

fruit vendor (if it's only a fruit vendor) is basically negligible when it comes to power

so "6-shot" gunsmith, even-night gunsmith and slightly gated jailkeeper + voyeur doesn't seem far outside the realm of possibility to me. voyeur is fairly low power, and i've always personally considered even-night to be a fairly restricting modifier. two gunsmiths, one of whom is slightly limited in power plus a slightly limited jailkeeper seems like a relatively level amount of power, perhaps a little on the town sided. without too much scum power i think it would be relatively balanced? whether it be information from an informed, or some kind of investigating / interfering role.

would like to hear another review from SS

[northsidegal]

i suspect that something else might be going on here though, and if that is the case i think the first thing to cast doubt on would be one / both of the gunsmith claims

i'm less and less attached to the idea that both of them are the same alignment, for what it's worth.

[northsidegal]

anyways im waiting of nsg's analysis of eddie/idan before i actually decide if im okay with nsg dying today

i'm honestly fairly surprised that you don't townread me. this is quite the reversal from our usual situation, i feel.

anyways, i think that idany is the more interesting of the two when it comes to associatives in that he has some pretty notable ones. eddie not hammering him is one, yes, but that alone is fairly weak. comical's hard defense of him is another. i'm not making any sort of real claim that these are strong associations, but what i am saying is that i think it's interesting that this slot that has basically been empty the entire game even

has

these sort of associations. i'm not sure if that's normal for slots like that, and my inclination is to say no.

[northsidegal]

anyways im waiting of nsg's analysis of eddie/idan before i actually decide if im okay with nsg dying today

i'm honestly fairly surprised that you don't townread me. this is quite the reversal from our usual situation, i feel.

anyways, i think that idany is the more interesting of the two when it comes to associatives in that he has some pretty notable ones. eddie not hammering him is one, yes, but that alone is fairly weak. comical's hard defense of him is another. i'm not making any sort of real claim that these are strong associations, but what i am saying is that i think it's interesting that this slot that has basically been empty the entire game even

has

these sort of associations. i'm not sure if that's normal for slots like that, and my inclination is to say no.

have we ever rolled town together

mini normal 2055, for one, although i had to search through your games to remember that one. more recently you lynched me as scum day 1 in alternating 9p, a game i utterly forgot existed.

nsg - what is your favorite fruit?

depending on what fruit does i think that it's a mistake to fruit me, but it's up to you (and i don't even know what your role really is, anyways). let's go with peaches.

[northsidegal]

But yeah, NSG is clearly scum based on the tether between her and I. If she were town’d she’d have faught back at me harder.

@Alchemist - you brought up she doesn’t have a presence as scum?

She has literally zero presence against me in Comical vs NSG

.

my not responding to you i would call a learned behavior—it seems entirely pointless. i don't expect to change your mind, and i don't really expect that having the conversation will do anything to convince others.

i asked you before why you scumread me and i don't think i got an answer. i don't expect to get a straight answer by asking you again, really. you seem quite fond of just stating that i'm "manipulating the gamestate" and other such accusations without real explanations – that seems to basically be how you push people, by flooding the thread with various accusations and direct statements of guilt. i imagine that it's quite effective, as it takes advantage of a lot of heuristics and cognitive biases that if i cared more going into i could probably write an essay about.

if you'd like to, i would actually be interested in hearing real explanations of what you believe and why you believe it—not just statements of what you think is true, but

explanations

of

why

you think it's true.

[northsidegal]

nsg does boon being locktown make sense and what does that change for oyou

i don't think we have full enough role information for me to say that—if, say, penguinpower is actually a loyal fruit vendor or a weak fruit vendor. granted, i consider that someone unlikely considering that i think that he townreads me and wouldn't use that sort of action on me, but still.

i guess i'll actually try to get more to what you're asking, though. if i were to take it as a given that comical were locktown, what would that make the game look like? i think that reads-wise this shifts little, as even knowing that he is town i am remiss to take that as indication that his reads are any more likely to be correct—with good reason for this game at least, as i'm certain you can agree (i bring this up because i would

not

say the same thing if i did this same thought experiment for, say, eddie cane). that leaves us with the mechanical. the immediate answer would be that it points towards RCE being scum, but i'm not sure that's actually true. assuming penguin is only a fruit vendor, gunsmith + "somewhat limited" JK + voyeur is actually a really low amount of town power. like, so low i'm not sure it's ever passed.

[northsidegal]

We’ve fully mass claimed, NSG.

have we? oka has yet to clarify what his restriction is, and penguinpower has yet to clarify anything about his role besides "fruit vendor", which we have no confirmation of given that he targeted firebringer.

it's not unreasonable to say that we still don't have perfect information.

[northsidegal]

oka, do you recall alternating 9p? i didn't, but i think reviewing that game might prove useful.

i am somewhat mystified that you still believe that i could be scum.

[northsidegal]

She’s looking for a definitive point to why she is scum, and that’s the epitome of scum who thinks they’re caught for the wrong reasons.

i am interested to hear

why

you believe that i could be scum, for a multitude of reasons. being interested to hear why people believe others think they are scum is—quite undeniably—a common trait across all games and from both town and scum. you state here that it comes from scum and do the same thing that you are always doing – putting forward a possibility without any statement as to

why

you believe that possibility is more likely than the alternatives.

My reads on people are based on the conjunction of gamestate versus personal agenda, and

I believe I’ve been very vocal and given multiple reasons why I believe NSG to be scum

. It’s not as simple as just bullet pointing. I’m not there yet. She’s played a good enough game to not allow me to have definitive bullet point reasons, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t other outliers.

i don't believe so. you've given things that may appear to be reasons, or explanations ("she's manipulating the gamestate, she's setting up wagons, etc."), but these things are one step down from simply saying "she's scum". they're not statements of

explaining probability

, of why the world that you put forward as true is more likely than the alternative explanation.

[northsidegal]

I don’t do probability like that.

I’m all sociology vs psychology vs the competitive game spirit.

-shrug-

then i have basically nothing to say to you. i recognize that your techniques are probably fairly convincing to most, but they are essentially meaningless to me.

[northsidegal]

honestly, eddie? i don't believe that you need that to sort me.

[northsidegal]

But you haven't provided much in terms of game propelling content since subbing in. It would help me sort your alignment if you discussed why each person is in your PoE pool, strength, etc.

i've gone over all of my townreads already, i'm fairly sure. as for the people left i can see scenarios in which all of them are scum, but little to distinguish certain scenarios as more probable than others. certain

stories

are appealing, such as one of {eddie, idany, comical} in which you don't hammer your buddy, comical hard defends him and despite clear instructions from you in the scum PT as to what pushes he should make and how his reads should look to best look anti-aligned the lurker sometimes posts without reading or fully comprehending first. another is perhaps {comical, RCE, anyone} in which boon comes up with some weird gambit as he tends to do and real town power comes from penguin being a loyal fruit vendor. i could go on.

these are just stories, however. as much as they may hold compelling narratives that make one think "oh wow, that makes so much sense! i can't believe i figured it out!", they hold no explanatory power. and as such i don't really have much of a hierarchy of scumreads among those that i don't townread.

[northsidegal]

oka, i already told you what my conclusions would be if i assumed comical to 100% be town.

[northsidegal]

is this the metric you're using to decide how much you want to lynch me or not? how much you like my "solve" after all this information?

[northsidegal]

I can say the same thing though, right? Act incredulous you haven't found me as town? Your argument that we haven't played together a ton goes both ways, and I have provided lots of content to read in the latter half of day 2. I haven't seen any progression in that, granted you haven't voted me. I was encouraging Dann to lynch you over my other scum read FF in WF because giving you a day pass is stupid just because you're a good player if I am confident you're scum. In this game, I do not have that killer urge, but I also don't think you've done anything that I can check box as townie and would say I overall lean scum on you.

the difference between me and you eddie is that i am considered by many if not most to be among the easiest people to read on the site with a literally laughably bad scumgame and you are considered to be the exact opposite. you yourself think this and i know that you do.

[northsidegal]

is this the metric you're using to decide how much you want to lynch me or not? how much you like my "solve" after all this information?

stop making me feel so bad pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeasfsdfasdfsadfasdfasdfadsf

this is why i hate being townread uashd;fasdf

i honestly just want to hear why you still think i could be scum – you still haven't responded despite me asking a few times and reminding you of a few of the most recent game we played together.

i just want someone to project confidence on a rigid solve ;-;

it's comforting to follow someone you think you can trust when they project confidence, but i think the truth of the matter (and especially in mafia games) is that that projected confidence is rarely likely to be warranted. there's nothing wrong with embracing uncertainty.

[northsidegal]

the next time flavor or anyone else puts forward a compelling

narrative

of someone's dastardly plot as scum and not any actual

explanation

, you should remind yourself that stories are just stories and hold no predictive power.

[northsidegal]

The key part is, though, that as you said, we have not played together many times. I wanted to murder you in WFand murdered you via Dann. I am not voting you despite you being the largest wagon and my scum strategy of kill good players and win, so that alone should probably be town points for me from your point of view I think?

you not voting me right this very instant means very little when you scumread me and i presume would vote me were my wagon to get to viability with your vote.

I think your analysis of my NK meta should have brought you to town Eddie, and it didn't.

my analysis of your nightkill meta was that you first consider the danger that individual players pose before considering roles. i know that you respect flavor a lot but apart from that the firebringer kill isn't particularly out of line with what i expect from you. i don't consider something like "he's too fun and i'd never kill him" to be particularly compelling. and, i mean, if the only reason you wouldn't have killed firebringer as scum is that he's too fun even if he was the best kill, i would almost consider that playing against wincon?

I think I've been pretty transparent in trying to develop a read on you this game, because I feel like you should be easy to sort. And most of your comments have been generally "why aren't you town reading me wtf", "not AI setup stuff", and the like, other than your first bout.

if you mean most of my comments towards you, i have little to say except that this is undoubtedly a reductionist view. if you mean most of my comments in this game in general, i'd say that this is an incredibly

inaccurate

view, and also still be quite surprised that you would need such from me to get an accurate read.

honestly eddie, i think that a lot of people and especially you could read me based on just the

visuals

of my posts alone, forget the content – if i was playing a game entirely in russian, or something. if you couldn't even

read

what i was saying, but you could still see how my posts were structured and what my paragraphs looked like and the timing of everything, i still think my towngame would be easily distinguishable from my scumgame. this game is already visually distinguishable from what i think my last scumgame was (before white flag i mean, but that as well).

[northsidegal]

how many assumptions and "never done before but could be done" exceptions do you have to make to rationalize me being scum? how many for me being town?

picture in your mind the image of "nsg replacing into a scumslot". imagine what it looks like to you. does it pattern match to this game? how many of those assumptions do you have to make?

now do it for "nsg replacing into a townslot". does it match this game more closely? i think that it should.

hypotheses that require too many assumptions to even be viable deserve a complexity penalty to how probable they are.

[northsidegal]

there is no switch.

there is no switch, and if there were i certainly would have "flipped" it long ago, rather than replace out once more to the shame of furthering my reputation as a garbage scum player.

[northsidegal]

nsg you have nero as a top scum right, nothign changed?

boon you too?

i don't townread him but i would prefer to lynch among the VT claims for today. that's eddie, auro, or idany, if i recall correctly.

[northsidegal]

alchemist too actually, but i would rather not lynch him.

[northsidegal]

okay ignore mechanics

by play

rcenigma/nero cain scum equity thoughts?

sure, i don't consider him town at all.

[northsidegal]

okay ignore mechanics

by play

rcenigma/nero cain scum equity thoughts?

sure, i don't consider him town at all.

so you think that he is scum like very likely scum by play

no. i don't townread him by his play. i think he's as likely to be scum as the other people i don't townread.

oh yeah, another compelling narrative but one that probably lacks predictive power that you just reminded me of was your questioning of him early on in this day phase over why he didn't suspect eddie at all for the quickhammer despite his scrutiny towards the rest of the pine wagon.

eddie, auro, or idany,

And this is my biggest problem with you. Because you consider me hard to read, right? But that doesn't mean you don't try to read my content and default into lynching me. And having Alch as townier than me is mind boggling. You also haven't acknowledged SS period here.

why is it that you say that i haven't tried to read your content? what is it that allows you to make that claim?

i have acknowledged SS.

early game i townread clidd and so far i don't think SS has given me any reason to doubt that. there was something of a consensus early game that clidd's early posting was town – that opinion came from multiple sources that i both know to be town now (dannflor, firebringer) and people whose reads i trust. that's not why i have the read—I came to the read myself—but it certainly makes me feel better about it.

[northsidegal]

we have a secret consensus lynch in nero cain


don't let him maybe being an even night gs do anything, if he's an even night gs odds are they have mafia docs anyways or something

i don't think this new wagon is more likely to get off the ground than the previous wagons that existed. if you're alright with eddie cane and idanyboy as wagons, both of those i think had a high chance to go through.

[northsidegal]

I also have a problem with her wanting to vote in VTs at all, I don't know if PR claims should ever stop NSG from lynching scum.

are you once again assuming that i am making up a behavior that i have never done before?

it seems like your view of me is as someone who gets some lock scumread and then forces that person's death, not stopping in the face of claims. i would call that view inaccurate.

NSG, can you towncase Alchemist? Or at least describe why he is townier than both Eddie and I, yes, as Eddie asks.

i've gone over this before. i wouldn't call it a "towncase", though.

honestly i don't actually think that alchemist's whole thing with oka being a gunsmith is scummy. he has some pretty bad lines ("Nobody's saying Oka's not Jailkeeper so I'll assume that's the case here.") but i can actually track his thought process about a scum gunsmith / jailkeeper pointing towards vigs and thus a scum jailkeeper protecting a partner. i'm not saying that i agree, but it feels like a pretty genuine and complex thought that seems unlikely to have been pulled from nothing by scum.

was there some change in the gamestate that caused alchemist to want to basically go in an entirely new direction – against oka, who people were starting to townread more? i don't think so. i feel like this post is fairly accurate:

alch you want to tell us why you scumclaimed

It's not a scumclaim. I challenge you to explain why scum me would correctly guess that you're Jailkeeper and then push you for it instead of quietly passing on the info to my scumteam?

And unless I'm scum with RCE, why would I as scum shake up the status quo when he was on track to being lynched?

[northsidegal]

oka, i've already told you my reasoning.

[northsidegal]

as much as i appreciate you saying please, asking politely is not convincing.

[northsidegal]

are you once again assuming that i am making up a behavior that i have never done before?

it seems like your view of me is as someone who gets some lock scumread and then forces that person's death, not stopping in the face of claims. i would call that view inaccurate.

My view doesn't have to be that extreme to hold consistency, NSG.
I feel like you're going "eh, let's just lynch here" rather than really scumhunting there and acknowledging that you're only voting outside due to claims.
Perhaps I'm remembering wrong, but, eh.

perhaps i've been making a mistake this entire game by calling the people i'm willing to lynch "null". perhaps it would look a lot better and be easier to understand as well as more accurate to my real thoughts if i called all of them my scumreads.

if, instead, you considered that grouping to be my "scumreads", would that eliminate that feeling?

[northsidegal]

i've gone over this before. i wouldn't call it a "towncase", though.

Thanks for re-quoting. I don't see why that mechanical spec is too complex for

Alchemist

to come up with as scum, honestly.
I also don't think scum are in any real danger from going after townread slots. I think "do they randomly go after consensus town as scum" is actually something that can be checked in Alchemist meta.

it's not about whether or not it's possible for him to come up with as scum. i'm not even sure what you mean by italicizing his name there. it's about if the mindset is more likely to come from town or scum, and i think that in this case it tracks as a genuine town mindset. that is, i really see it as more likely that he shakes up the status quo, comes up with Oka being a jailkeeper as the result of setup spec and makes that publicly known to the thread, and continues to push Oka based on this speculation in the face of obvious pushback—i see it as more likely that he does all that as town. it tracks as coming from town in a way that coming from scum would, i feel, require a lot more assumptions.

if you have some sort of evidence that this sort of process has happened before or is common with scum alchemist, i'd be interested to see it.

[northsidegal]

Like Seriously, I’m going to literally death tunnel NSG if we’re both alive tomorrow without doing anything else.

Just kill her today, so I can either die tonight or do actual analysis tomorrow

i hope that nobody is willing to abide ultimatums like this, in this game or in others. allowing them only proves that they work and allows them to be used in the future, refusing them demonstrates that they will not be accepted and, if refused consistently, should render them ineffective.

[northsidegal]

"concerned" is not the word that i would use to describe my reaction to comical this game. what makes you say that?

[northsidegal]

That you keep addressing it at all.

wasn't his whole point that i

wasn't

addressing him? (that's a rhetorical question – the answer is yes)

my responses to comical today have mostly been academic, if anything—mostly an excuse to talk about mafia theory.

ok nsg

i think there is nothing i can do to stop your death if you aren't willing to lynch nero

so take your time and put together some last closing posts for town to use to solve the game in the future

if this is your attempt to try to convince me, it's not working. here's something you could do – you could vote a different wagon? i mean, even though you just finished saying to me that you don't want to vote someone who comical is townreading, comical clearly doesn't think that nero is a good vote today.

[northsidegal]

idany's at L-2.

[northsidegal]

idany's at L-2.

You

really

don't think scum me would try to get you lynched over iDany here?

that's a somewhat compelling point. i think scum you would consider my lynch to be a pretty great outcome. that being said, i also think that if you started hard pushing me you know that it would result in my doing the same towards you. so then i suppose the question becomes, would scum you consider yourself likely to win that 1v1? i'm not sure, but if i had to count votes i think that you might get lynched before i got lynched.

so, like i said. i think that's somewhat compelling, but not terribly.

wasn't his whole point that i wasn't addressing him? (that's a rhetorical question – the answer is yes)

my responses to comical today have mostly been academic, if anything—mostly an excuse to talk about mafia theory.

NSG is finding excuses to talk about mafia theory instead of scumhunt, CAUGHT SCUM!
I kid, of course. But yeah, part of ignoring Boon is also ignoring Boon's accusation of being ignored
I don't think anyone disagrees with your takes on him

i mean, ignoring vague, unsubstantiated pushes on me is one thing. ignoring someone else saying that i'm ignoring them i would consider just plain rude.

[northsidegal]

would scum you consider yourself likely to win that 1v1? i'm not sure, but if i had to count votes i think that you might get lynched before i got lynched.

I feel like this is an inaccurate assessment, but seeing as it's super difficult to get NSG close to lynch range, maybe

i would agree that eddie is almost certainly a more proficient 1v1-er than me. i think that in this game specifically, however, if it suddenly came to a 1v1 between me and him that i would win.

[northsidegal]

[northsidegal]

then why do you continue to consider lynching me, unless you have no reason to scumread the other people you vote?

[northsidegal]

in fact

i am now a silent voter

nobody can manipulate me because i will hammer any wagon

UNVOTE:

he was at L-2 with yourself, and i don't think getting two of luna, alchemist and nero to vote him would be particularly difficult.

[northsidegal]

hahaha, what an absurd outcome.

[northsidegal]

Like sorry, if NSG were town, she’d have been HARD lynched by now

lol, this is the exact opposite of true.

[northsidegal]

oka, if you are town you are being quite foolish. if you're scum you've played a masterful game.

[northsidegal]

oka, are you aware of the absurdity of being willing to lynch me despite not having any reason at all for an action that someone else did in the past? i'm not shoshin. being scared of "being shoshin'd" again is a cognitive bias that doesn't actually make any sense when you really consider it. and if you're aware enough to recognize that that's what's scaring you, shouldn't you be aware enough to recognize that the concern is unfounded?

[northsidegal]

@something, what happened to change from this post?

SS, who are your scumreads / people you're willing to vote at this point?

{Dany, Alch, Eddie, Comical, nsg}, roughly in order of preference.

[northsidegal]

what incentive does alch have to even show up at this point as scum? the only incentive that immediately comes to mind would be if we were partners and he needed to vote my counterwagon, in which case doesn't it make sense to continue voting me if you consider him scum?

Nothing except for Boon being taken out due to massclaim.

then why vote me over dany? i assume that that "order of preference" is from first to last, no?

[northsidegal]

that is, assume alchemist is scum. if i'm not scum (i'm not), why does he show up when presumably my lynch is a lot better for him than idany's lynch? if i am scum, why switch to voting him instead of staying on my wagon?

i bring up this hypothetical involving myself being scum to illustrate that i don't think flashwagoning alchemist at this point makes sense.

Is Dany really at L-2?

yes. i believe it would be L-1 with oka's vote, and L-0 with yours.

[northsidegal]

time to put your money where your mouth is, oka.

[northsidegal]

ah, you're right.

[northsidegal]

nsg clearly didn't want to be gunsmith'd earlier but the nsg problem won't go away anytime soon

Oka,

what

is the "NSG problem"? You keep refusing to answer me and it's starting to get a little bit bothersome. I think that I deserve the basic respect of an answer, especially from someone willing to lynch me despite saying that they have no reasons to scumread me.

Like, is this what RC feels like? Why am I of all people being treated this way?

[northsidegal]

I believe Auro is the best target.

[northsidegal]

Does that include yourself? Besides, comical has already come up with his excuse in advance – according to him, I'm the mafia doctor. A clear on me will do nothing to stop him.

Assume that I am town. How much of the wagon on me do you believe is scum-motivated? Does that alter your thinking in any way?



All of that aside, I still find that reasoning silly. If you see no reason to scumread someone then the fact that other people do (for poor and ill-defined reasons) does not, I think, justify going "welp, guess we should just kill 'em now".

[northsidegal]

and nsg i have no reasons to scumread you

but i also have no reason to townread you other than meta

meta that is ridiculously easy to break and anybody who rolls scum would salivate to have a meta like that

Oh, please. Must we really go through this again?

This game isn't about possibilities. It's about probabilities. What is the most likely scenario, and why.



The only way I can reconcile you believing that I can play so far removed from my scumgame is if you believe that before this point I have been trust-telling and deliberately gimping my scumgame. I know that some people do think this.

Is that what you think?

[northsidegal]

If you won't listen to me, listen to Eddie.

To Oka: This is probably true, because if NSG wanted to get a scum win to cement her legacy (as she alluded to in this game), Team Mafia was the stage to do it in. This random meme game (at least d1 due to some idiot lolhammering) in a replace in is probably not.

So, if this is normally out of NSG's scum range to you, you should consider her town.

[northsidegal]

oka, i can see how frustrated you are with this game. it's really apparent with the whole sitting back and semi-giving up and just hammering whichever gets to L-1 first. it's part of why i'm so confident that you're town – i

really

find it hard to imagine that this is all you acting, especially the frustration earlier with eddie himself and trying to get him lynched.

i'm saying that you don't have to keep going on trying to be the main wagon driver, but that doesn't mean that you should just give up and be willing to lynch me just because it's the easy path. that doesn't have to be your burden.

[northsidegal]

oka, please respond to me. it's not a good feeling to be ignored. i understand that all you've been getting is resistance on wagons. i just want to understand what you're thinking, because right now it doesn't make any sense to me.

[northsidegal]

If it's what you really believe then it needs to be said.

[northsidegal]

If you're still uncomfortable answering, I would say that regardless of the answer that Eddie's point still remains – whether I was gimping my scumgame (i wasn't, never in a million billion years would i have done this) or whether it was just a matter of how much I wanted to prove myself, the time for me to "break meta" would have been in team mafia, not this game.

[northsidegal]

you're still ignoring me, oka.

[northsidegal]

sigh - nsg i dont scumread you can that just be enough

That doesn't mean anything if you're still willing to vote me. It honestly looks like just a way that you can make yourself feel better.

Oka, as much as I want you to reevaluate because it helps town win this game, I also want you to reevaluate because I feel like this is an obvious instance of a cognitive bias, almost a phobia. You're telling me that you don't scumread me but you still have this deep fear that I'll be shoshin and the game will be lost because of you, and I think that that kind of fear is deadly, in this game and in any other. I mean, I don't know how to say this without coming off as super corny, but I would be pretty happy for you if you overcame that in the same way that I'm happy for a friend overcoming a fear of rollercoasters or something.

[northsidegal]

hey nero, i think you should vote idanyboy. he's been the center of a really notable amount of associations with other people, and there have been multiple times that he's ignored this game even though he was posting in other games.

[northsidegal]

sigh - nsg i dont scumread you can that just be enough

That doesn't mean anything if you're still willing to vote me. It honestly looks like just a way that you can make yourself feel better.

Oka, as much as I want you to reevaluate because it helps town win this game, I also want you to reevaluate because I feel like this is an obvious instance of a cognitive bias, almost a phobia. You're telling me that you don't scumread me but you still have this deep fear that I'll be shoshin and the game will be lost because of you, and I think that that kind of fear is deadly, in this game and in any other. I mean, I don't know how to say this without coming off as super corny, but I would be pretty happy for you if you overcame that in the same way that I'm happy for a friend overcoming a fear of rollercoasters or something.

ok nsg ur town, happy

oka, this isn't about just me wanting you to call me town for my own satisfaction. i genuinely want you to change your mind because i think that you're making a mistake and i think that you

could

change your mind in a way that i don't for, say, comical or auro.

i feel like i might inevitably come off as condescending saying this but it's not my intention, but i think your pattern of thinking when it comes to me is flawed and i want you to see that. i would prefer that you see it through me being nightkilled or through when the game ends rather than the pain of lynching me. (actually, i would prefer the most to just convince you, but as far as

proof

is concerned, i mean.)

[northsidegal]

Ok im still feeling a bit lightheaded and should probably sleep soon, but I need to give this game some time, anything new?

we're close to lynching idanyboy. are you willing to vote him?

[northsidegal]

if you're already prepared to vote me then i don't think that voting alchemist makes sense, for these reasons:

what incentive does alch have to even show up at this point as scum? the only incentive that immediately comes to mind would be if we were partners and he needed to vote my counterwagon, in which case doesn't it make sense to continue voting me if you consider him scum?

that is, assume alchemist is scum. if i'm not scum (i'm not), why does he show up when presumably my lynch is a lot better for him than idany's lynch? if i am scum, why switch to voting him instead of staying on my wagon?

i bring up this hypothetical involving myself being scum to illustrate that i don't think flashwagoning alchemist at this point makes sense.

[northsidegal]

Ok im still feeling a bit lightheaded and should probably sleep soon, but I need to give this game some time, anything new?

we're close to lynching idanyboy. are you willing to vote him?

Hold on im still trying to parse a lot of stuff that is happening right now.

sure, take your time. there's a

lot

to get through.

[northsidegal]

for reference, these are the reasons why i would prefer the check to be used elsewhere:

first and foremost, i already know that i'm town. someone checking me does not help me solve the game in the slightest, and so i think it's natural that i would rather people i'm uncertain about be checked.

on a more meta level, i think few would disagree with the statement that my town game is noticeably distinct from my scumgame. and so if there are people whose town and scumgames are harder to tell apart, i think it's logical to say that mechanical checks are better used on them.

finally (and this is perhaps the weakest point), i think that i have already played fairly towny this game, and even if someone does not think so so far, if i survive to another day phase i think it will be more likely that they do given that amount of time. (that might've been worded poorly, but i hope i got the gist across)

[northsidegal]

ah yes, northsidegal, expert scum manipulator

[northsidegal]

for what it's worth, i agree that feeling bad about scumreading people is definitely something you have to try to overcome. the few times i've scumread RC when he's actually scum, a sense of dread at actually having to push him has been fairly stifling and non-conducive to winning.

ah yes, northsidegal, expert scum manipulator

Would you say Popsofctown is an expert scum manipulator, NSG?

i've never seen her scumgame.

[northsidegal]

NSG why can't you play well as scum?

would you mind if i asked where you were going with this? i should also say that i don't think the answer is altogether very simple.

[northsidegal]

NSG why can't you play well as scum?

would you mind if i asked where you were going with this? i should also say that i don't think the answer is altogether very simple.

im just wondering what do you think is holding you back because you seem cognizant of it

i would say that being cognizant of the

reasons

for one's failure and being able to counteract them are two entirely, entirely separate things, if that's where you're going. i think this fact is plainly obvious for any sort of non-mafia setting and it is only because people wish to believe it is not true that some may believe it is not true in a mafia setting.

i would also again remind you of eddie cane's point regarding team mafia.

[northsidegal]

Why would you want to prioritize a personal goal over overall team win % chances?

In what way is "playing a good scumgame, one so good that NSG has never played anything like it before" a "personal goal" and not something that maximizes overall team win percentage chance?

How are you out of your scumrange here besides, idk, just posting and posting higher when you're being pressured?

i already answered this question for you – had you forgotten?

Spoiler: because auro asked

in the first place i've read almost all of the game chronologically, which i'm not sure i've ever done as scum replacing in.

the research i've done into schadd's mod meta and previous designs is something that i would never have done as scum, and if i did any setup spec at all it would be in the mafia PT and not in the main thread.

you don't know for certain that i actually did this and didn't just say i did, but i would never check eddie and FL's rate of how often they kill PRs when they're scum if i was scum.

i've taken notes when catching up this game, which i have never done as scum before. i haven't posted them for two reasons: one, because i think some people would consider it unsporting, and two, because i don't think it's necessary to do that kind of thing to get myself townread.

i wouldn't townread oka or luna if i were scum. there are plenty of instances of games i've played with oka where i've made it clear that i find him difficult to read such that there would be no reason for me to take some post entirely overlooked by the rest of the game and hold it up as proof of him being locktown. this may not be convincing, but i think it is true. luna i have enough knowledge of to know that i probably could not pocket her if i tried, and the reasoning for my townread on her does not make me look good enough to warrant it as a strategic decision.

there's probably more, but meh.

[northsidegal]

@NSG - which of Penguin, Alchemist, Nero is scum?

i don't particularly townread nero, of the three.

oh my god lets just fucking lynch nero cain nobody townreads that slot

why are you against lynching idanyboy? now that luna is here, we actually have enough votes to hammer.

[northsidegal]

i will lynch idanyboy

if your desire above all else is to finally have peace and have this day end, staying on idanyboy is the most likely way to ensure that happens the soonest.

[northsidegal]

if your desire above all else is to finally have peace and have this day end

And with iDany flipping green what peace will he have, NSG?
NSG, I asked for your % confidence in townreads (and scumreads if you want) - pl0x?

giving you numbers would be entirely meaningless, they'd just be pulled out of thin air. i've already given a ranked list.

[northsidegal]

the answer is no, and especially not in this game instead of team mafia if i were going to

[northsidegal]

luna, could i ask where the chance that i've become a master scum manipulator overnight even came from? like, it's obviously being put forward by comical every other post, but what makes it worth considering in the first place? what makes it anything other than hollow words, the same as me saying "oka has been playing us all for fools this entire game"?

sure, that could be the case, but what makes it worth even considering in the first place?

[northsidegal]

I don't really care about NSG but she's scum reading me and not Boon so getting rid of maybe scum/bad town seems like a fair idea

VOTE: NSG

i'm not scumreading you, i actually have the same read on you as i do on comical. i just didn't townread your predecessor and i don't townread you.

[northsidegal]

luna, are you alright with a lynch on idanyboy? or are you still reviewing?

[northsidegal]

Nero, if your main scumread is Boon, I'm surprised you'd vote me over idanyboy. Boon's been hard defending idanyboy this entire phase.

[northsidegal]

luna, are you alright with a lynch on idanyboy? or are you still reviewing?

I'm probably not gonna have time for that.
Specially when im getting a headache right now.

I would much rather V/LA for the rest of this day phase and look for any bolded plans for the night phase, but I want to contribute as much as I can before then.

we're pretty much going to need your vote. take your time, though.

[northsidegal]

stack on nsg

[northsidegal]

oops, i thought you meant stack votes. although i still would prefer others be checked than me.

[northsidegal]

nero, it seems confusing to me for you to vote with your primary scumread as opposed to voting the player he's hard defending. could you explain?

[northsidegal]

given that presumably tomorrow we could have a guilty on auro and given that i assume most would agree that i can't be partners with auro, doesn't that point towards lynching me today being a bad idea?

[northsidegal]

nero, it seems confusing to me for you to vote with your primary scumread as opposed to voting the player he's hard defending. could you explain?

Are you willing to ever vote boon?

And you are in the sea og vt claims that has 2 scum in it.

comical is the centerpoint of many possible scumteam solves for me. it would never be today, but i could see myself voting him tomorrow, depending on what we learn.

[northsidegal]

given that presumably tomorrow we could have a guilty on auro and given that i assume most would agree that i can't be partners with auro, doesn't that point towards lynching me today being a bad idea?

Why can’t you be partners with Auro?

that's not what i'm saying, although i do think it's true (from an observer's point of view, i mean—i know that i can't be partners with auro because i'm town)

what i'm assuming is that most people would already agree that i couldn't be partners with auro.

[northsidegal]

I mean this game should be easy, we got 2 players with supposedly easy to read meta (NC and NSG), and one player who already dropped his towntell (Boon), on top of Oka being town by the way he played around Eddie, and a player that's town if their role is confirmed (PP), and now i have a personal townread on Eddie.
Anything outside of those I can probably lynch no regrets.

i know you're probably tired of people appealing to you like this then, but if that's what you think – would you vote idany with us?