Mini Normal 2132 [Game Over]

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: Hectic

<3

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: aaronfrost

Aaron if you are scum please post a message in the game thread intended for the acum PT and that would be most kind of you

Oh shit I can't believe we rolled scum together again

[AaronFrost]

AaronFFrost is AaronFFrost

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat

[AaronFrost]

Hectic and Holden in a game together? This is gonna be entertaining

[AaronFrost]

I never did get to lynch you in that game Aaron

UNVOTE:
VOTE: AaronFrost

You lynched my slot after I repped out so I think that still counts

[AaronFrost]

And I like my mislynches very seasoned as scum

How do you like to season them? A little salt, pepper, garlic? Maybe some cumin for some extra spice?

[AaronFrost]

And I like my mislynches very seasoned

as scum

Scum slip!!!!!

Now don't be so hasty there Hectic, Holden hasn't mislynched anyone this game... yet

[AaronFrost]

So, of course it's a reach, but do we have any hard info on meta-tells on any of these people?

this is a wacky thing to say. do you usually commence the metadiving within the first couple of dozen posts?

I think it's a reference back to the 50p that Wake modded where metadiving was a very big thing.

I've seen/read though like 6 Wake games, but they were all town. I may or may not have gained some knowledge while impersonating him in the 50 player large for a bit. Wake, have you rolled scum in the last year?

if waka hasnt rolled scum this year

gambler's fallacy here i come

VOTE: waka

Waka flocka flame has rolled scum in the last year

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=81560

[AaronFrost]

The wildness of Llama's coats is exactly what makes them fantastic! Tell me this guy isn't fabulous:

Spoiler:

[AaronFrost]

What do you mean?

I've seen u do the "fos everyone in first post" bit already.
I was looking forward to new material.

I don't use a gimmick every game; this is just me being me this game.

What meta do you have on me?? Need to know which scum/towntells to use.

Come on Hectic step up your meme game bro

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: AaronFFrost

Learnt anything alignment-wise so far, Aaron?

Not really tbh

[AaronFrost]

your posts feel more strained, like faked
I don't think MT is trying so hard to look carefree and this is Hectic's playstyle from what I understand

Have you played with Holden before? I don't think this is an alignment tell for him.

[AaronFrost]

Having said that, I am worried about not a single attempt to move out of RVS in any of his posts. One example was when I tried to engage on AI stuff regarding his TOF (townreads) in 31, but he replied with his dog being his strongest townread rather than talk about whether he had anyone as town yet.

It's not like anyone else was trying to get us out of RVS either (other than Cakez, just now) so i'm not sure this is necessarily an AI thing, especially for Holden. I have limited experience with him though (first game on site which I had to sub out of).

Tentative townlean on Sircakez

[AaronFrost]

I went ahead and compared Wake's entrance in this game to his scumgame that I modded and I think I agree with a townlean there. I think he's tonally different compared to that game and here he has a better interest in solving than he did there, specifically by bringing up the meta thing.

[AaronFrost]

Having said that, I am worried about not a single attempt to move out of RVS in any of his posts. One example was when I tried to engage on AI stuff regarding his TOF (townreads) in 31, but he replied with his dog being his strongest townread rather than talk about whether he had anyone as town yet.

It's not like anyone else was trying to get us out of RVS either (other than Cakez, just now) so i'm not sure this is necessarily an AI thing, especially for Holden. I have limited experience with him though (first game on site which I had to sub out of).

Tentative townlean on Sircakez

I

Whoops.
I was more getting at the fact he answered my TOF/townread question with a joke rather than answer seriously with any potential townreads.

Okay, what do you think of him now that he's playing seriously?

[AaronFrost]

Also AaronFFrost gets townpoints for the Survivor meme

"Jeff can I play this voting podium?"

[AaronFrost]

I thought Jeff liked Adam?

Either way that shit was hilarious.

[AaronFrost]

Weird that Wake went for meta instead of declaring his hatred for day 1. Town points there I think

What alignments has Waka Waka been when you've seen him declare Day 1 as the work of the abyssals? And if they're all town, then why does this difference earn him town points rather than scum points?

1st question - no idea. Only played with him once or maybe twice

My logic is "didnt care to reproduce known meta = town"

Especially such an obvious meta

I remember from that game I linked that he said he was trying to break out of that meta so I'm not really sure that's much of an alignment tell for him

[AaronFrost]

I didn't realize bob was here. Definite scum.

VOTE: bob

Could you explain that confidence here?

Let me double check.

@bob -- are you scum this game?

@bob -- Before I definitively report back to Wake, can you answer this for me?

At first I thought you were joking with this line of questioning but this comes off like you're being serious about it.

How does this help you determine bob's alignment?

[AaronFrost]

Were you testing for my ability to know what a quick topic is?

Nope. Checking if you were hinting at anything.

So was this supposed to be some kind of reaction test or did you think MT was crumbing pt cop there?

If the latter why would you point it out?

[AaronFrost]

I didn't realize bob was here. Definite scum.

VOTE: bob

Could you explain that confidence here?

Let me double check.

@bob -- are you scum this game?

@bob -- Before I definitively report back to Wake, can you answer this for me?

At first I thought you were joking with this line of questioning but this comes off like you're being serious about it.

How does this help you determine bob's alignment?

Determining

Bob's

alignment wasn't the initial goal, but when Bob seemingly disregarded my 179, I was compelled to follow up. Now that Bob's answered that, I can go back to what I was doing.

And how did you expect him to answer 179? Were you trying to get a reaction out of him?

[AaronFrost]

Hmmm I'm struggling to read people for the most part here. Not really finding any SRs so far other than that early Holden ping which is odd for me.

Honestly, I'm kinda feeling the same way rn. I have no real scum reads and a few weak town leans on cakez, dave and hectic.

[AaronFrost]

Bob told me to get a life. I thought that was funny. And appropriate.

As far as my scum meta goes, he may be right. I don't know.

There's not much of a sample to work with there.

Shouldn't you of all people know your own meta?

[AaronFrost]

How is he definite Scum?

I don't think Aloratom actually believes that he's 'definitely scum'

[AaronFrost]

I can never tell with Wake. I've had my fair share of scumreading him because of his aggressive/overconfident style he adopts the longer the game goes on. You question whether he actually believes the stuff he's saying at times, a lot due to the way he says it. Though, in this case actually, I think the misunderstanding on his part is completely NAI.

I think scum!Wake is a little more reserved and cautious with his approach. Aggressive Wake = town Wake.

[AaronFrost]

Aloratom

HoldenGolden

profii

Cat Scratch Fever

Morning Tweet

Wake88

davesaz

SirCakez

AaronFrost

bob3141

tictac

Gamma Emerald

288

Hmm, it's not in accordance to the players list on the first page. And I'm doubting the size thing = strength of read since the bbcode is specific to maintain the effect.

So im really perplex. How did I go from suspect to alright to second top town read?

I'm not entirely sure about this but I think the bigger names near the center are his townreads and the smaller ones at the end are his scumreads.

[AaronFrost]

Wake vs Alo may be TvS

Why? I still don't understand how these reads work btw, do you feel S is more likely to be one side, or you just get the feeling their interactions are scummy in some way?

The latter. Sometimes there's more reasoning for it but it's too early here.

I interpreted this to mean that Cakez thinks one is scum but doesn't know which one.

Well if he thinks that Aloratom/Wake is tvs, shouldn't he have some idea of which one is scum in that scenario? Otherwise it's just kind of a vague statement that doesn't really mean anything.

[AaronFrost]

Wake vs Alo may be TvS

Based on your questions back towards Wake you think wake is the scum in this exchange. I'm I correct in this? Or have you change from when you raised the counterpoint about playstyles and dodging questions?

I lean that way a little bit. Wake's tons of questions without real content backing them up is kinda scummy. But it could also just be his playstyle. Also I don't TR Alo especially strongly.

That sounds a lot like how town!Wake plays tbh

[AaronFrost]

Wake vs Alo may be TvS

Why? I still don't understand how these reads work btw, do you feel S is more likely to be one side, or you just get the feeling their interactions are scummy in some way?

The latter. Sometimes there's more reasoning for it but it's too early here.

I interpreted this to mean that Cakez thinks one is scum but doesn't know which one.

Well if he thinks that Aloratom/Wake is tvs, shouldn't he have some idea of which one is scum in that scenario? Otherwise it's just kind of a vague statement that doesn't really mean anything.

Not always. Sometimes it's just a vague sort of feeling. Like you know it's not TvT or SvS from how the posts are written (i;e by how aggressively people are attacking each other or how engaged they are). It's kinda hard to describe but I know I'm not the only one who can see it.

I can agree with them not being SvS, but I do think there's a chance that it's TvT as well. It's like Wake's aggressiveness vs. Alora's more laid-back attitude but I think that's just a playstyle thing. I do think Wake is town for his approach, but I don't really have a strong read on Aloratom right now tbh.

[AaronFrost]

Hey Cakez can you elaborate a little more on your Hectic scumread? Out of everyone here I probably have the most experience with him and rn I lean town him (although I'm not super confident in that read). What about him feels fake?

[AaronFrost]

Hey Cakez can you elaborate a little more on your Hectic scumread? Out of everyone here I probably have the most experience with him and rn I lean town him (although I'm not super confident in that read). What about him feels fake?

It just feels way too early for that kind of readslist and the progression isn't there for it IMO. I already talked about not liking him avoiding me earlier. A lot of questions seemingly leading nowhere (this is something I think scum do a lot ftr)

Ok I think this makes sense. I townlean him mostly because of he's been one of the more proactive players even if his questioning feels generic.

I think in terms of asking useless questions or making useless comments, I think Gamma's been a lot worse in that department.

[AaronFrost]

pedit: i wanted to ask first...

oh shit sorry my bad

[AaronFrost]

As for who I scumread right now, I don't really have any solid scumreads at the moment. There's a few players here I would've expected to be a little more proactive here (namely bob, Gamma, profii and tictac I think could be doing a little more) but I need more from those slots I think before I could justify a scumread there.

[AaronFrost]

How dare you call my questions generic, Aaron. They're handpicked and excellently woven to yield the best alignment-indicative replies you'll ever see.

Honestly, it's less about the questions and more about the fact that you don't seem to be doing much with them. Like if they actually do yield AI content from people then you do you, it's just something I haven't really seen from you before.

[AaronFrost]

Newly Revised NON-Generic Questions

AaronFFrost:

You're on a sinking ship. The load on the deck is too heavy. However, you can throw 2 of [Bobman, tictac, profii, HoldenGolden] overboard to save humanity. Who'll it be?

bob and tictac probably.

Again, I'm not really seeing how this is supposed to help you scumhunt.

[AaronFrost]

What are you seeing town in about Wake's questioning, dave?

Its existence. I see this post as possibly town motivated as well.

The question was pretty inane imo

Why’d you ask it then?

They're referring to Wake's questioning I think, not CSF's.

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[AaronFrost]

Bear with me, Aaron. Let's say you throw tictac and Bob off but they both land on a lifeboat. They're now bloodthirsty and looking for revenge. tictac's holding a harpoon, and Bob wields several walls which he could potential lay out to climb back up to the deck.

You look behind you to consult profii and HoldenGolden, but they've both fallen asleep with their respective dogs sitting comfortably on their chests. This is problematic.

Who do you phone for help in [Gamma Emerald, AaronFFrost, Aloratom]?

Uh I can phone myself? If so then yeah I choose to have me save myself.

[AaronFrost]

...

I don't expect to get anything AI from 404 and 429 if that wasn't clear. I'm just having fun.

You kind of implied earlier that it was serious and that the questions were helping you get reads on people. I need to know for sure if you're actually memeing though bc right now I can't tell (and yes this will help me read you ftr).

[AaronFrost]

However, even then this is pretty much the kind of player I expected Hectic to be in regular games. im not convinced that meming around is a scumtell for Hectic. Unless I'm misinterpreting the case

Hectic's memeing isn't AI, that's just the Hectic I know and love (<3). Having played with him enough seeing both his town and scum games I think I have a decent tell on him that's related to his gimmicks which is why I need to know if his questions are serious.

[AaronFrost]

I doubt voting Gamma while he's v/la will be very productive

I'm down to try this

VOTE: tictac

Would do Holden as well. He seemed to have dropped off the radar after a lot of early shitposting

I mean same logic can be applied to tictac when they've been inactive. I have my reasons for voting there, not sure I want to reveal them yet.

I agree with you on Holden though, I'd like to see more from him. I really hope that doesn't become a theme with this game.

[AaronFrost]

AaronFF, the questions weren't serious.

[AaronFrost]

Tictac is all fine and dandy-- but what do you guys think about profii?

no real opinion on him tbh

[AaronFrost]

I honestly cannot remember hectics playstyle past RVS and even if I did it would be outdated. Sadness. I want to say though as town that he keeps the joking up throughout the day when most others get serious

This, 100%

I think that as scum Hectic is slightly less gimmicky and more likely to start playing seriously earlier in the game. There's a few elements of his play here that feel serious, but likely aren't on a second glance. Right now I'd put Hectic at > rand chance of being town.

[AaronFrost]

It's basically just putting out early readlists and being more transparent, Hodlne. The joking is definitely still there.

Since I'm probably never using this alt again: Paragon

Aww man I wanted to be the only one who knew about your super secret alt

[AaronFrost]

This might sound like a stupid question, but what was your plan in the post you voted him? The way you worded it makes it so you are not opposing the lurking p lynch on tictac while justifying being off the wagon. I think you can understand why this bugs me.

I wasn't opposed to the tictac wagon as a pressuring device, but it looked at that point that there were enough pressure votes there.

I wasn't going to join it with that number of people on it, especially after they had been prodded when it initially looked like they were going to be active.

I had other concerns at that time.

This post reads overly cautious to me

tictac was at 3 or 4 votes, which is only about half the required amount to lynch so there's not much danger in adding more pressure there, which you should want to do if you're town. The bolded part especially screams to me "I don't want to get caught randomly hopping onto a lurker wagon"

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: Aloratom

We have a little over four days left and some people haven't moved their votes since RVS. Put your votes in play people.

[AaronFrost]

Jeez I had no idea deadline was so close
Alo is definitely awkward but I think there's more scum equity in tictac right now especially considering hectic's post

So here's the thing, I think there's a decent chance that tictac!slot and Aloratom are partners from the way Alora awkwardly defended the wagon. I want to lynch in one of those two today.

tictac is fine by me, but I'd kinda like for Chemist to get caught up before we just power lynch that slot.

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: Aloratom

We have a little over four days left and some people haven't moved their votes since RVS. Put your votes in play people.

btw the purpose of this post wasn't to make us power lynch someone, I had looked at the vc and noticed there were still votes from RVS in play which was weird to me.

Like 4 days is ample time so we don't need to rush but there should definitely be more serious votes rn.

[AaronFrost]

Explain my awkward defense of the wagon. This sounds like you're lining up mislynches.

Maybe defense isn't quite the word I'm looking for, but like I said in 511, your play around it feels cautious and hesitant while still trying to justify by saying that you're not opposed to it.

How am i lining up mislynches?

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: Chemist1422 I don't have much time nowadays but hopefully this will flip scum and clear me!

how does chemist flipping scum clear you?

[AaronFrost]

I don’t get why A-Tom is being voted

Several people have talked about their issues with Aloratom's posting. Do you agree or disagree and why?

[AaronFrost]

I realized something about the tictac wagon-- I think regardless of tictac's alignment, there's probably scum on it. Okay maybe that's not a super hard deduction to make but bear with me here

I agree with this

VOTE: aaron actually
I'm less certain Chemist is scum here and Aaron is not making me feel good about this wagon

I'm confused by this? Why are you voting off wagon if you agree with MT that the tictac wagon is sketchy?

[AaronFrost]

I would have no qualms with this post since AFF was following similarly in my logic of Alo not wanting to be on a p lynch for a lurker. However, that implies in a sense that tictac was town since Alo gets more for bussing his afk partner than actively trying to deflect the lynch. Especially considering that he said he was fine with the lynch (so it wasn't a defence at all).

As it stands, I dont understand what afk rabbit hole lead AFF to the associative reads. Even if you read into alo posts for associative tells before the flip, I feel you would come to the opposite conclusion that it was a TvS interaction rather than SvS. Alo's push on hectic was anything but strong, let alone enough to chainsaw defend him.

So now aaron, I have the very specific question for you. What lead you to the notion that alo and tictac are SvS given the fact we both had issues with him not wanting to join the p lynch on a lurker?

Again, defense probably wasn't the right word to use there, but there was some caution/hesitancy around voting the wagon while still trying to justify it by saying he's okay with it. It's scummy positioning no matter which way you look at it tbh.

The reason it gave me pings of partner interactions was because if Alora!scum and tictac/Chemist!town, then that's an easy wagon for Alora to jump on.

[AaronFrost]

I realized something about the tictac wagon-- I think regardless of tictac's alignment, there's probably scum on it. Okay maybe that's not a super hard deduction to make but bear with me here

I agree with this

VOTE: aaron actually
I'm less certain Chemist is scum here and Aaron is not making me feel good about this wagon

Cake your here. Why does chemist feel less scummy to you?

He seems just lost and confused. Also that would be a weird choice of fakeclaim imo.
I feel scum would be freaking out more

The claim may not necessarily be fake, he could just be a scum 1-shot jailkeeper. I think I want to leave that claim alone for today though.

Also I disagree with that last sentence, I think more often than not scum try to maintain their composure when under pressure.

[AaronFrost]

I realized something about the tictac wagon-- I think regardless of tictac's alignment, there's probably scum on it. Okay maybe that's not a super hard deduction to make but bear with me here

I agree with this

VOTE: aaron actually
I'm less certain Chemist is scum here and Aaron is not making me feel good about this wagon

I'm confused by this? Why are you voting off wagon if you agree with MT that the tictac wagon is sketchy?

Because your postulating around is was sketch regardless of who is on wagon. There were surely scum on it but I don't have to go after them riht now.

I like MT's wagon analysis. I think it makes Gamma more likely scum.

Where did I say or imply that there were scum on the tictac wagon? I haven't actually looked at the wagon comp tbh, mostly because I find Alora pretty scummy and that's my focus right now. I'll have a look at MT's analysis though.

[AaronFrost]

How am I lining up mislynches in that post Cakez?

[AaronFrost]

I realized something about the tictac wagon-- I think regardless of tictac's alignment, there's probably scum on it. Okay maybe that's not a super hard deduction to make but bear with me here

I agree with this

VOTE: aaron actually
I'm less certain Chemist is scum here and Aaron is not making me feel good about this wagon

I'm confused by this? Why are you voting off wagon if you agree with MT that the tictac wagon is sketchy?

Because your postulating around is was sketch regardless of who is on wagon. There were surely scum on it but I don't have to go after them riht now.

I like MT's wagon analysis. I think it makes Gamma more likely scum.

Where did I say or imply that there were scum on the tictac wagon? I haven't actually looked at the wagon comp tbh, mostly because I find Alora pretty scummy and that's my focus right now. I'll have a look at MT's analysis though.

I thought asking why I voted off wagon if I find the tictac wagon sketchy was implying scum on the wagon. Did I misinterpret?

That post is lining up lynches cuz it sets up Alo next. I'm not the only who's noticed it

You misinterpreted, you're the one who said you agreed that the tictac wagon is sketchy yet you voted off wagon. I never said anything about scum on the wagon.

Ok so if I'm scum lining up lynches, then that'd imply that one of them is my partner if I'm saying that tictac/Aloratom are possibly svs, which means you'd have to accept that I'd bus my partner Day 1, which I'd do here because?

And if I'm lining up Alo to be lynched tomorrow, why am I pushing him over Chemist today?

PEDIT: only the tictac/chemist read is since I have no real read on them other than the weird interaction. So alo's flip will affect my read there, but I find alo scummy regardless of chemist's alignment (so chemist flip would not effect my alo read). Does that make sense?

[AaronFrost]

I think I might have just completely misunderstood Aaron here
UNVOTE:
That said I still dislike the preflip associatives but it might not be scum indicative
And Aaron if you were scum lining up lynches in the traditional conception then it's be assumed chemist and Alo were both town

I don't usually do preflip associations but sometimes you see interactions that are too awkward not to point out.

That would be true in the traditional sense but if I'm scum saying that alo/chem are svs that'd be moot if one of them flipped town.

[AaronFrost]

~snip~

This was the justification you gave for your vote on me, which you later tried to push as me defending the tictac wagon until you were called on it.

~snip~

And now you find me pretty scummy.

Prior to that, if I recall correctly, you were having a difficult time finding any scum reads at all. This seems like a convenient excuse to join a wagon on me started by the ridiculous reason that Wake took to initially vote me, which Dave essentially sheeped. Then you use this lame reasoning to vote me, giving Wake an excuse to re-vote me.

I was having a difficult time finding scum reads, and now I have one. Is it that farfetch'd for me to have found one after I said a while ago that I had none? I gave plenty of reasons for scumreading you, as have others. You honestly sound like you're just attacking everyone who's voted for you yet you haven't explained your position on much of anything.

[AaronFrost]

Re: 616
I could use some input on people's reads on Bob.

I don't really have a read on him at the moment. I don't think I've seen him lurk like this before though, but I'm not sure if that's AI or not.

[AaronFrost]

I would have no qualms with this post since AFF was following similarly in my logic of Alo not wanting to be on a p lynch for a lurker. However, that implies in a sense that tictac was town since Alo gets more for bussing his afk partner than actively trying to deflect the lynch. Especially considering that he said he was fine with the lynch (so it wasn't a defence at all).

As it stands, I dont understand what afk rabbit hole lead AFF to the associative reads. Even if you read into alo posts for associative tells before the flip, I feel you would come to the opposite conclusion that it was a TvS interaction rather than SvS. Alo's push on hectic was anything but strong, let alone enough to chainsaw defend him.

So now aaron, I have the very specific question for you. What lead you to the notion that alo and tictac are SvS given the fact we both had issues with him not wanting to join the p lynch on a lurker?

Again, defense probably wasn't the right word to use there, but there was some caution/hesitancy around voting the wagon while still trying to justify it by saying he's okay with it. It's scummy positioning no matter which way you look at it tbh.

The reason it gave me pings of partner interactions was because if Alora!scum and tictac/Chemist!town, then that's an easy wagon for Alora to jump on.

I can sorta see where you got the associative read now, but I feel it's not unreasonable that scum!alo does that even if tictac was town due to it being earlier in the day and being a policy lynch mostly. He could always flip back if needed to hammer due to accepting the premise of the lynch.

Yeah this is fair too. It's something I'll reevaluate if we flip Aloratom, which is sadly looking less likely as we get closer to the deadline.

[AaronFrost]

Does anybody have experience with chemist subbing in day 1? IE if they survive till day 2 do they actually ramp up in post/content?

If not then I think the best lynch is chemist. Even given the claim, I'm finding them hard to read and they are still being relatively reactive. I rather not have to wait to lynch them purely out of them being a question mark before lylo than going ahead and getting it out of the way now. While alo is scummy, I feel the chemist lynch overall is better long term wise with a good chance of getting scum.

If we want to go with Alo though we need to push now so we get enough time for claim.

I've been in a lot of games where Chemist subbed in, and usually he gets lynched by the end of the day or the next day. I'm not super great at reading him though and I've seen him both lurk and post a lot of townie content as town.

I think Aloratom is my preferred lynch today.

[AaronFrost]

Neon mafia is Chemist last replace in from what I see that they replaced in somewhat late (I realize my question is flawed due to the timing of replacement impacting contributions), but it still shows the issues I have with the slot.

Compared to that game where chemist replaced in, caught up, and was producing content on their own, here they are much more reserved and uninterested it seems. More inclined to react to what's going on in the thread. This would be somewhat alright if it didnt extend to questions too namely when I asked a question and then they popped in with basically a +1 to the question

Mini Normal 2119 - repped in D1, lynched D1, scum

Open 771 - Pollock's Flag - repped in D2, lynched D3, town

Some recent games that chem repped in that came to mind. He was also very disengaged in the open where he was town, compared to the mini normal where he was slightly more engaged upon repping in although he didn't live long in that game.

[AaronFrost]

Wait is tictac RVS vote still chemist's vote? I'm pretty sure Chemist made a remark about voting Alo

Yes, and chemist hasn't acknowledged it, the only times he's mentioned aloratom are

Spoiler:

I'll read over alora

Alora, how would you describe your usual playstyle?

[AaronFrost]

Bob, you answered it right there. Chemist hasn't said much yet is voting alo hence why a SvS makes some sense.

Wouldn't Misty/Aloratom bus and push each other more strongly at this point, given they're the only two wagons? I think them both being scum is very unlikely actually.

I'm kinda leaning this way too actually, especially with the high probability one of them will be lynched today.

[AaronFrost]

You dont learn anything just going along with lulker lynchs.

If chemist is scum. No way scum woudlnt bus him.

You don't learn anything from lurker lynches, except that scum was bussing? That sounds like useful information to me no?

If you don't want either Chem or Alora then who do you want?

[AaronFrost]

Okay, I'd switch to Gamma if people wanted to do that. The way he's played this game is highly scum-indicative for him.

Otherwise, Misty is best lynch.

How do you factor in the V/LA into your read on gamma?

That's really my main issue reading that slot since otherwise I agree his play is scummy.

Easy answer is to not factor it in, since V/LAs are NAI. Also his V/LA ended two days ago and he still hasn't shown up.

[AaronFrost]

@bob

I get that you scumread dave, and honestly my townread on him has weakened significantly, especially after the interactions with you, but now is the time we need to consolidate on wagons. We have just over a day left.

[AaronFrost]

oh lmao he already claimed duh
does anyone object to my hammer?

No objections. I'm ready to end this day.

[AaronFrost]

Kinda thinking it's just bob and Aloratom? That almost feels too easy though.

bob hard defended the chemist wagon near the end of the day while trying to make a push onto davesaz.

Alora hopped on at the end of day presumably to bus for the towncred. I kind of explained everything wrong with his play already.

VOTE: aloratom

[AaronFrost]

I was leaning that way until tictac slot flipped red. I also explained that the flip wouldn't change my read on Aloratom.

How do you feel about bob MT?

[AaronFrost]

Chemist1422 (7): Gamma Emerald, Cat Scratch Fever, Hectic, profii, HoldenGolden, Aloratom, SirCakez

Aloratom hopped on last minute

[AaronFrost]

I said earlier I didn't have a read on Alora because I didn't know what was playstyle I think

At this point I'll keep it for self-pres though

VOTE: Chemist

^ There's also this weird post from Chemist regarding Alora

[AaronFrost]

It's weird, but its bob so I can't say 100%. I'm really curious why he thought dave was a stronger lynch, but i fear if I ask he's just going to say "look back at the case"

I don't think his case on dave was all that convincing, I might take a second look at it though. I want to know if he still holds his opinion on him given our new flips.

By saying "Keep it for self-pres", is Chem trying to say she thought Alo was town ? It's a weird post although i dont think it specifically implies SvS, unless im misunderstanding it

I think it is scum indicative for Alora if scum Chem wanted to confuse us or disassociate himself from him.

[AaronFrost]

I realized something about the tictac wagon-- I think regardless of tictac's alignment, there's probably scum on it. Okay maybe that's not a super hard deduction to make but bear with me here

I agree with this

VOTE: aaron actually
I'm less certain Chemist is scum here and Aaron is not making me feel good about this wagon

I could go for this.

VOTE: AaronFrost

Aloratom joins the Aaron wagon which kinda suggests he might be trying to create one that isn't him/Misty.

Yeah that vote looked super opportunistic at the time, even more so now.

Gamma and profii are other options I could look into as well.

[AaronFrost]

I see SirCakez has been shanked.

What is the likelihood we're looking at a 3-man team?

How common is that in a 13-player game?

3 man team in a 13p game is the norm

[AaronFrost]

IF my memory serves, we no longer do 3rd party Scum in 13-player Normals. I could be wrong though. I thought they did away with Multiball in Mini Normals.

@Holden - this is correct, no third party in mini normals.

He was probably informed of some kind of town role

[AaronFrost]

tictac/Chemist didn't get in a 1vs1 with anyone. A scum lynch who doesn't get in a 1vs1 with anyone is always hard for me to figure out who their scum buddies could be. Alora was the counter wagon to Chemist and do you guys think scum tried to make a counter wagon? I recall on 2 of my completed games when there was a wagon one one of the scum players they made a second wagon.

Aloratom wagon started first, tictac/chemist followed after.

I think Aloratom tried to start a wagon on me when he followed cakez onto me, which happened after the tictac wagon had four votes on it.

[AaronFrost]

what are the chances both partners got ran up for the entirety of the day?

For the record, I'm not a huge fan of arguments like this. Like, statistically, yeah it's unlikely, but not impossible either and the reads I have rn trump any statistical probabilities.

I'm pretty set on Aloratom being scum.

[AaronFrost]

OK cool, have it your way. Not.

I'm a full Town Watcher.

I watched Hectic Night 1.

Both Morning Tweet and Davesaz targeted him.

Both evaded me when called on it.

Oh neat.

Why'd you ask about profii then?

[AaronFrost]

Ok then

tbh Wake there wasn't really much reason to reveal that since the actions don't tell us much except that they have roles that can visit. Unless you think it's scum indicative for one of them

[AaronFrost]

My prediction is that Wake just outed 3 town PRs all in one post lol

Let's not talk about anything more regarding this

Actually I think we should think about it.

no, we shouldn't, stop pr speccing.

I have my own theories about what prs scum and town might have, but it's best to not talk about it yet.

[AaronFrost]

I'm of the mindset that one of those two targeting Hectic is Scum, while someone else (not among Tweet, Dave, and Hectic) is the Scum that killed Cakez.

Ok

Do you think one of them is scum based off of play or is this just pure speculation? Like do you have any specific reason to believe this?

[AaronFrost]

Less mech talk and more scumhunting ok thanks We can worry about mech stuff later on.

[AaronFrost]

I'm of the mindset that one of those two targeting Hectic is Scum, while someone else (not among Tweet, Dave, and Hectic) is the Scum that killed Cakez.

Ok

Do you think one of them is scum based off of play or is this just pure speculation? Like do you have any specific reason to believe this?

Do not pretend to be dense with me, Aaron.

How likely do you think it is that 3 Town PRs all targeted Hectic at the same time? Assuming Hectic is Town.

I

know

you understand what I'm saying.

I understand what you're saying, but my question is this: is there anything in dave's or MT's play that suggests them being scum with Chemist?

[AaronFrost]

That's kinda why I feel chem intentionally didnt say anything to avoid draw associations one way or another, faking the reading on Alo entirely. The main question now is rather or not it was done to shade alo upon flipping red, or to prevent more analysis linking to two together today.

I'm kinda feeling like if Chem is scum and Alo is town, he tries to push Alo a little bit more in order to save himself. Chem didn't really try too hard to save himself so either he thought there was just no point bc he thought he'd get lynched or he felt disassociated enough from his partners that he was fine with going down.

[AaronFrost]

Kinda thinking it's just bob and Aloratom? That almost feels too easy though.

bob hard defended the chemist wagon near the end of the day while trying to make a push onto davesaz.

Alora hopped on at the end of day presumably to bus for the towncred. I kind of explained everything wrong with his play already.

VOTE: aloratom

Now thats shade.

I hard defended alort wagon. I said i was fine with chemist wagon and that it decent chance of flipping scum ( above random). But as always i want to lynch thr scum the scum dont want to bus

Why do you think if i was scum that i simply wouldnt hard bus chemists slot?

Ok you were fine with it, so why didn't you vote there? You tried to make a last minute push onto davesaz when the deadline was nearing and we needed a lynch. I even asked you to consolidate on one of the two wagons and you didn't.

[AaronFrost]

And no one shoudl forget dave choose alort over chemist. Even though he claimed to think it was svs. I would of though that he would see teh best bet to catch scum would be to vote chemist. yet he never did

You did the same thing as well too, choosing to go for a vanity wagon near the end of the day as opposed to consolidating on one of the existing wagons.

Like i get your point that it is scum indicative of dave, but it's also scum indicative of you.

[AaronFrost]

Chemist claimed and then he disappears for 3 days. Why did he not interact with other players and figure out who the scum are rather than giving up? Town should fight for their lynch figuring out who is scum and Chemist disappearing like that this is the kind of play I always find suspicious.

Chemist already flipped tho so

Who specifically do you think he was avoiding interactions with?

[AaronFrost]

What progression on me Hectic? There was none, and he just gave up on that push after cakez unvoted.

[AaronFrost]

I like the bidoof though

[AaronFrost]

Why did you choose alort over chemist?

You were pushing players to consolidate onto your lynch.

Because I had a read on alort and I didn't have a read on chemist, and I still think Aloratom is scum.

I was asking for players (mostly you) to consolidate on one of the two wagons. I may have preferred one over the other, but at the end of the day we lynched scum.

Besides do you serously think scum spends all their time trying to shut down the counter wagon to chemist and not bus.

Maybe not, and I've already said I think scum bussed, but I'm not sure if both scum bussed. Your end of day play was weird either way.

[AaronFrost]

Oh, 614 came after 557 lul. I think he does believe his reasoning in that post though.

Code: Select all

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  `.`\_...._/`.-"`
    \        /      ,
    /()   () \    .' `-.____________________
   |)  .    ()\  /   _.'                                     Smith
   \  \_/     ,; '. <                                        
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   / ,    / ,  |.-'.-'                                            
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    \    ,     ;-`
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I'm not so sure he believes it and it felt opportunistic, but I also might be biased a bit.

[AaronFrost]

Sicne no takers it makes it highly unlikely that alort is scum. Do you not think that if it was alort and chemist that scum doesnt try and jump on the dave wagon. All we had was you expressing that you felt dave came of worse

I think the better move for scum!Aloratom would be to stay on chemist if he knows one of the two of them would be lynched today, unless he was super confident that he could get enough people to follow him and you onto dave (which was unlikely given the gamestate), or if he's scum with dave.

[AaronFrost]

That's kinda why I feel chem intentionally didnt say anything to avoid draw associations one way or another, faking the reading on Alo entirely. The main question now is rather or not it was done to shade alo upon flipping red, or to prevent more analysis linking to two together today.

I

'm kinda feeling like if Chem is scum and Alo is town, he tries to push Alo a little bit more in order to save himself.

Chem didn't really try too hard to save himself so either he thought there was just no point bc he thought he'd get lynched or he felt disassociated enough from his partners that he was fine with going down.

That's my issue. Chem as scum should of at least tried to push something on town!alo rather than laying down and taking the lynch without voicing any concrete reads. Now that I know he can produce content as scum when replacing into an suspicious slot, I am back pondering if the wagons were SvS.

In any case, I feel I am going to ponder this particular point too much and end up circling around in what is speculation of what scum! chem would do. Do you think trying to crack this idea is worthwhile? I've been thinking inbetween writing a paper outline about it and keep coming to some different conclusions.

The lack of progression on Alo reads as scum who's not sure what to do upon replacing in and seeing that him and his partners are both top wagons.

The one point for town!Alo is that if chem is scum, why doesn't he try to townspew Alo? Maybe he thought he couldn't do it without leading an actual lynch onto lylo or maybe he thought it would backfire and he gets lynched anyways?

[AaronFrost]

Also if Chemist didn't try and save himself much, then I feel like he believed at least one of his partners was townspewed enough to carry the rest of them to endgame.

[AaronFrost]

Oh, Aaron

VOTE: AaronFrost

Sorry you rolled scum. I caught you though

Care to explain this a little more?

[AaronFrost]

V/LA until April 29th

College finals coming up. Will still check in when I can.

[AaronFrost]

Hey guys I'll catch up with this tonight, or at least try to

[AaronFrost]

That's kinda why I feel chem intentionally didnt say anything to avoid draw associations one way or another, faking the reading on Alo entirely. The main question now is rather or not it was done to shade alo upon flipping red, or to prevent more analysis linking to two together today.

I

'm kinda feeling like if Chem is scum and Alo is town, he tries to push Alo a little bit more in order to save himself.

Chem didn't really try too hard to save himself so either he thought there was just no point bc he thought he'd get lynched or he felt disassociated enough from his partners that he was fine with going down.

That's my issue. Chem as scum should of at least tried to push something on town!alo rather than laying down and taking the lynch without voicing any concrete reads. Now that I know he can produce content as scum when replacing into an suspicious slot, I am back pondering if the wagons were SvS.

In any case, I feel I am going to ponder this particular point too much and end up circling around in what is speculation of what scum! chem would do. Do you think trying to crack this idea is worthwhile? I've been thinking inbetween writing a paper outline about it and keep coming to some different conclusions.

The lack of progression on Alo reads as scum who's not sure what to do upon replacing in and seeing that him and his partners are both top wagons.

The one point for town!Alo is that if chem is scum, why doesn't he try to townspew Alo? Maybe he thought he couldn't do it without leading an actual lynch onto lylo or maybe he thought it would backfire and he gets lynched anyways?

I feel like you read into Chem's actions (or lack of actions, rather) too much. Chem could have been avoiding interaction with Alo because they're scumpartners, but at the same time it could have been done intentionally to make us think that. Or maybe she didn't do anything intentionally and just didn't want to post

i'm not super familiar with the independent case for Alo!scum. Early on, he was getting voted for basically nothing (Calling bob definite scum), and his responses to all the pressure he received afterwards seemed awkward.

Are there independent tells about Alo that I've missed that cause you to scumread him? I'm doubting the SvS so hard that it makes me inclined to think alo is town here

You answered your own question, it looked like Chem was deliberately avoiding interaction with Aloratom.

Can you walk me through how you're getting to town!Aloratom again?

[AaronFrost]

You have highlighted why I'm finding the logic pointless to pursue.

I think both the "He didnt interact due to not wanting to create assiocatiom" and "scum!chem most likely would of townspew scum!" Are both valid points to assume which cancel eachother other.

Also a fair point about chems partners. Who so far fits that bill for you in terms of strong townread player = scum (since alo doesnt qualify)

Hmm, maybe I am looking into it too much, I'm just having a hard time seeing town!Alo here.

As for people I strongly townread, Hectic and MT are my strongest townreads atm.

[AaronFrost]

Hmmm I'm struggling to read people for the most part here. Not really finding any SRs so far other than that early Holden ping which is odd for me.

Honestly, I'm kinda feeling the same way rn. I have no real scum reads and a few weak town leans on cakez, dave and hectic.

I town read all these players

-Hectic was the target of many actions, no one is jumping up and saying 'this is potentially a guilty' so I'm assuming nothing untowards
-Cakez flipped town
-Dave, I think I've seen a dave town tell but it only happened recently


so the weird thing is, even though it's weak, Aaron got 3 reads 'right' as far as my mind is working, way earlier in the game. I don't mean to infer that this is not possible or I am a superior player obviously - but I'm obviously getting at the point that scum just know so it could easily be that.

I honestly never thought I'd see the day where I get scumread for having decent reads early game. Townreads are also statistically more likely to be correct, so how is this scummy?

And ftr I no longer townread dave

[AaronFrost]

Not seeing a VC anywhere.

I don't think we should have been so quick to dismiss the Watcher results.

IF Hectic is Town I HIGHLY DOUBT there's two other Town PRs besides me that targeted Hectic.

Chances are one of Morning Tweet or davesaz is Scum.

Why are people ignoring this?

So which one do you think is scum then? Why aren't you putting more time in to try and figure that out if you believe there's a high probability of one scum in {MT, dave}?

[AaronFrost]

However, even then this is pretty much the kind of player I expected Hectic to be in regular games. im not convinced that meming around is a scumtell for Hectic. Unless I'm misinterpreting the case

Hectic's memeing isn't AI, that's just the Hectic I know and love (<3). Having played with him enough seeing both his town and scum games I think I have a decent tell on him that's related to his gimmicks which is why I need to know if his questions are serious.

AaronFF, wouldn't revealing this tell on me defeat the question of asking me whether my questions were serious? Aren't I just going to answer no as scum no matter what?

Not sure why you went back to this or how this is relevant, but... I didn't say what the tell was until after you answered

[AaronFrost]

The neighborizor is enabled by a townie that's died

Does that make that actual neighborizor more or less likely to be scum?

This is something I've been running through my mind ever since day start, and I'm not really sure where I'm at with that atm.

[AaronFrost]

What do you think of Dave, everyone who's online?

dave townread=gone
dave currentread=null
dave status=needs_reevaluation

[AaronFrost]

high involvement with the Alo wagon, which is pretty meh in hindsight but i put him in my weak town yesterday for the tunneledness. today he mostly has just questioned bob if i recall correctly.

i also believe he's still an advocate for the SvS possibility alongside Aaron. so both dave and Aaron have expressed some amount of favour towards an Alo/Bob/chem scumteam. I dont like the SvS angle

MT it's weird to me that you townread dave yet scumread me even though the two of us have pushed the same angles (advocated for Alo yesterday, pushing SvS today). Why the difference in read there?

[AaronFrost]

Alright I'm all caught up. Can someone lay out the case against Gamma for me?

[AaronFrost]

I'll be able to give this more attention tomorrow