Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[hellbooks]

P.edit: yo, hellbrooks, welcome.

hi! looks like i have some light reading. I will probably be ready to participate by tonight.

[hellbooks]

I'll read fully, but I think its counter productive to write out long responses to posts that happened dozens of pages ago. i'll let the early game inform my thoughts and probably give a small summary of what they are. but my attention will be focused on the here and now!

[hellbooks]

as soon as I saw the day ended, I procrastinated on reading this game. sorry. I'm doing it now

[hellbooks]

I personally missed the bite of #258 and saw it as straight-faced the first time I read it, what was your thought process behind thinking he'd attack you for it?
I think votato's playing objectively a bit badly but I don't see it as more likely to come from scum than town, the 'flailing' just seems like him being irritated and reacting to Puppy's vote.

if i had to make a ruling one way -- for gamma to jump in and defend him here, I would lean towards that making votato townier by association. it's too low stakes of a situation to leave a trail like this.

I think votato is Town this game. There, I said it.

I laughed at "there, i said it." I'd love to sign off every post like this, lol

Blair v. Quick is town v town, fight me:

yes, I think there's a certain recklessness, a certain scatteredness on Quick's part here that says town to me.

@ready - What makes you think Blair vs Quick is TvT? I know Puppy mentioned a reason for it earlier but do you agree with what he said or do you have your own for it?

this question has a bad smell to me. it's barely a poke, such a small thing... as if to say, "hi, partner! i'm acknowledging you a bit! post more!"
VP Baltar's case afterwards isn't the greatest, but i'm looking with anticipation to see where it goes.
#604 potentially feels to weaken this theory. not for the vote - in fact that's another potential alarm bell thats impossible to read into, could very well be Gamma identified ready as not making it to endgame and decided to commit to the bus - but because of his follow up on the little point from before, perhaps?

Also, I'm scumreading mavsfan at this point. there's a particular reactiveness feel to his presence, maybe I'm getting the sense he's comfortable to

appear

rational while not doing much. would be interested to see what other people have picked up here. he's perfectly situated in the "danger zone". good posts, flies under the radar a bit, answers questions thoughtfully... something like that. also - his interactions with gamma are practically a blank slate.

==

day 2. again, there's no reason for gamma to commit to the bus from the gates here. Espeically that, it must feel a bit exhausting to have narrowly avoided a d1 lynch on a partner and then decide to start it over again. yeah, ready can be town.

Whoops, forgot to do this:
VOTE: ready2rock

two threads in play here: blair presents gamma, and gamma presents the alternative, ready2rock. mavsfan decides to go with the latter.

Sure. They have a low number of posts but by the looks of it, they engage meaningfully with other people.

actually, this is exactly what i have articulated earlier as the danger zone. (i'm not here to preach, hindsight is 20 20 and i have the advantage of reading knowing that gamma flips scum, but i'm just saying, let's apply this same logic here to mavsfan.)

r2r has yet to give a single confident original read. everything has been hedged, most reads are wishy washy and neutral.

this is no reason to suspect a person. in fact, i would expect many scum to have more confident reads (buddying town, pushing a mislynch, bussing, etc.)

midwaybear feels a bit of a distraction. if Gamma tries to pounce on it, I'll write him as town and call it a day.

Also scum:
r2r

Maybe scum?
midway
Dunn
votato (though I'm doubting myself hard on that now)

mediumly suspect.

Someone tell me if traffic analyst is a standard kind of role? I have not played in years and do not know what is considered a "normal" role.

unvote

However, if VP is scum with Gamma, he is

seriously

shooting himself in the foot by waffling here. I also like him voting once he reads the role. it's an avenue scum might not want to leave open if he is trying to save gamma.

Looking at Quick and puppy to vote mavs with me.
VOTE: mavsfan

we have to pressure midway today. why its so hard to get a wagon going on that guy i dont know, but i feel like its because his buddies are trying not to bus.

I wouldn't be appalled to do this just because i think midwaybear would be a hard variable to crack in LYLO + he seems to be playing pretty survivalistically. but i still think he's a distraction and the next natural target for scum (mavs) to look for a mislynch on to buy time. however, I did see your meta point earlier and while I can't substantiate it I did put it in the bank.

VOTE: hellbrooks

I'll help you out.

this isn't good - I think we ought to be doing something more productive than performatively pushing along an incoming catchup.

[hellbooks]

the people i dont have comment on, dunnstral and puppy, i dont have enough on them but i ought to be able to go back and read their posts again and see what I can get on a second read. however, for now I'll just be here in the present. I'm tired of reading

[hellbooks]

Also, I'm scumreading mavsfan at this point. there's a particular reactiveness feel to his presence, maybe I'm getting the sense he's comfortable to appear rational while not doing much. would be interested to see what other people have picked up here. he's perfectly situated in the "danger zone".

Can you point me to some examples that struck you on reading the game of why you think he is not doing much?

on day one, i got the consistent sense from his posts that he wasn't pushing anyone. He would state reasons for reads and then vote, and then let them sit there. It felt like he was performing scumhunting. this would certainly be excusable due to people's personality or playstyle. However, he has missed the mark even more on day 2 and day 3, ignoring the gamma wagon in favor of the ready2rock counter wagon. now today he went after midwaybear, who i think has a high chance to be an easy mislynch target. now, he sweats at the momentum i'm trying to start on lynching him, and comes up with a flimsy reason to join a counter wagon on me (namely, that i haven't done much, but this is only after i've had the chance to make one post).

gamma: 25 posts
blair: 214 posts

and yet i still feel like gamma has had a more significant positive impact on the game.

This really rubs me the wrong way, given that it was at a time when Blair was having a hard time getting the wagon going.
not to keep pressing this point. but this is what i'm talking about with mavsfan. when someone is making sparse but seemingly well thought out posts, they are the type of person who is self conscious. they want to make each post count but don't have the energy to keep it up. Of course this trait comes from all walks of life. But I think it comes from scum very often. Add to that the fact that mavs and gamma have terrible lack of interaction and mavs terrible pushes. This is the best choice for a wagon today.

I still have mav as fairly Null based on play alone. I would rather go midway and I really don't like that the wagon switched on between you and mav. That just gives me bad vibes honestly.

I'll 1v1 mavs right now. At least for the time being. however i'll acknowledge that midwaybear is a good wagon. Like I said, i think there's a high chance he's a distraction angle that scum is pushing right now. But theres nothing particularly town about his play i'll give you that.

[hellbooks]

This really rubs me the wrong way, given that it was at a time when Blair was having a hard time getting the wagon going.

sorry, I messed up the quotes. This sentence was from ready2rock's earlier post

[hellbooks]

I like the questions VPB are asking now, so my Poe is reduced to {votato, mavs, hellbooks}.
verynice

interesting theory. Do you think mavs and I are partners? if not, then votato should be scum confirmed to you, don't you think?

The bottom part here is referring to my vote on R2R and siding with Gamma. At the time of this post, Quick HAD ALSO voted R2R at a later time than me so at this point, there are 3 votes on R2R. Gamma, myself, and Quick in that order. Quick's vote came in 1069. He doesn't move off R2R the rest of the day. This above post happens AFTER that Quick vote (1367) and when R2R had 3 votes. Hellbooks looks past Quick's positioning and SRs me for basically the same thing here. This is too convenient. Hellbooks does state earlier that she is TR'ing Quick.

@Quick: are you and Hellbooks a scum pairing?

this isn't a bad point. I think Quick's behavior is town for other reasons. but I agree that his actions regarding Blair's claim were atrocious. and maybe we've been giving him too much space today. I think he could stand to get some pressure, but I think that most of his 1v1s have made him seem like he's coming from a town perspective. I'll also look back at gamma interactions with quick sometime in the near future.
but beyond that, so is this you agreeing that voting R2R instead of Gamma was a suspicious action? also interesting. if that's the case, I wouldn't count that as a point against you, just saying.

[hellbooks]

mavsfan is certainly scum though. I really do think this

[hellbooks]

fully sorry mavs.
UNVOTE:
at this moment, i'm thinking that it's better to discuss this as little as possible. But I'm not sure. I'll have to reread to figure out what actually is going on?

[hellbooks]

Mav can you show where, if at all, you showed a shift of opinion on me in the thread after you had targeted me?

i'm thinking dunnstral is very likely town.

I kind of believe Mavs claim. I don't like Votato.

I believe he's a fruit vendor of some kind and that's as far as I'll go but this does make me put mavs as more towny, for sure, for the way he claimed. But there are definitely some doubts on my end

Votato/mavs scumteam

Still plausible or out of the question?

I'm thinking right now that votato is very likely town as well

[hellbooks]

is there any reason to think puppy is town? He's lurking at a critical moment.

[hellbooks]

But there are definitely some doubts on my end

I should say i'm leaning about 80% believing the claim in its entirety though
it's a pretty intricate lie if it is one. But i've seen fake claims that elaborate before.

[hellbooks]

Thoughts on Quick?

Glossing over him was a mistake. but I don't think he's unjustified in pressuring you, because I think both of you are in similar places in the POE process for me. I agree with you that quick has been tremendously anti town. I can totally see your case being in good faith. I dont think it makes him scum

[hellbooks]

something like

dunnstral, votato, midwaybear
mavs, ready2rock
quick, vp baltar
puppy

in terms of how much scrutiny I think they ought to be given

[hellbooks]

I don't see my play as Anti-Town as much as it is that I grate on people and they don't like me or my playstyle. I'll try and cool my jets, but I actually play this game to win.

i think this post and others like it make quick seem a little townier, though. What do you think VP?

[hellbooks]

If you don't mind, the person I scumread the most just recently claimed, so I'm trying to reevaluate here.

[hellbooks]

In any case, IDK why votato and hellbooks are so sold on mav's claim being legit. I don't really buy it, but maybe I suck with all this claiming stuff. If it was just me making the decision, mav got put to L-1 with intent for a reason. let's read them based on their play and not based on the WIFOM of whether their claim is legit or not.

mavs also (erroneously?) thinking that there is some sort of "fruit checker" also seems like it makes the claim more believable. you're not wrong about wacky claims coming from scum. Again, i'm not fully sold. I might go back and scrutinize

[hellbooks]

I can't shake the feeling that there's a mislynch agenda behind VP Baltar's case
I dont have any thing I can point to for that but, wondering if theres something anyone else has on that.

[hellbooks]

I can't shake the feeling that there's a mislynch agenda behind VP Baltar's case
I dont have any thing I can point to for that but, wondering if theres something anyone else has on that.

Uh...

I understand that feelings aren't the most conducive to logical argument, but they ought not to be shunted to the wayside, no? I hope you can accept it for what it is, because it is just that, a feeling.

[hellbooks]

would we really have a second role that could potentially generate guilties?

A question I also asked myself but admittedly, I know absolutely nothing about setups and how they're balanced.
I'll admit it isn't the best of reasons but it's a rather inventive role. I'd be impressed for someone to come up with it as a fakeclaim. again, I'm not fully convinced of the claim but I do admit I want to believe it.

I actually don't get this list the more I'm thinking about it. You seemed pretty interested in a mavs lynch before and then helped run him up (I think your vote is still there actually), but he is fourth town on your list. You've also said pressure was due on quick, but that I'm trying to mislynch him.

My vote isn't there anymore. I unvoted because of the claim. That's also why I'm reevaluating. Yes, Puppy is there just because of lurking and not because of anything particular, but I wasn't townreading him in any way before that, so it's those things together. Yes, I worried about you trying to ML quick. I don't particularly trust either of you. Quick seems like someone who would be mislynch bait as town. However, I think you did do your part in putting those fears to rest in this post

You really need to take a concrete position on this. Do you believe he is town or not?

I remember myself saying 80/20 on accepting the claim. I believe i'm giving you a pretty strong belief there. What about you?

[hellbooks]

I'll say this much. I dont think mavs should be the lynch today. I also dont think we should give him a free pass to the end of the game. Is that acceptable?

[hellbooks]

if umlaut could put a town fruit vendor in the game, couldn't umlaut just as well have put a scum vendor in the game? in that case, mavs breadcrumbs because... that's what he was given.

He's a scum fruit vendor that didn't give out any fruit?

[hellbooks]

@r2r and hellbrooks - who do you actually want to vote out today? We need some stronger opinions from you. Particularly hellbrooks. I totally get the claim changing reads or needing to reconsider, but I see a lot of "well it could be X....or it could also be Y"...which isn't super helpful in trying to read you.

VOTE: puppy
I'm back to thinking Quick is town, honestly

[hellbooks]

Also thinking that a r2r bus from Gamma is very plausible especially since it looks strongly like r2r is now looking to coast.

[hellbooks]

Don't think that mavs and votato would be scum together.

[hellbooks]

mavs, why do you think votato is town

most of his iso is just sniping at other players and throwing shade (a lot of what you think makes me scum)

Cause I think you’re scum. And if you’re scum, votato can’t be your buddy.

Where do you look if puppy is town

[hellbooks]

UNVOTE:
ugh

[hellbooks]

yeah, bolded is actually a fair point, i won't deny it.

I just don't like this

[hellbooks]

Would it be absolutely ridiculous to lynch r2r today despite Gamma's d1/d2 campaign against him

[hellbooks]

That post seems pretty towny

[hellbooks]

I guess I could see Quick acting like this as either alignment

[hellbooks]

I am ok with R2R wagon, but i also like puppies. gamma is towny to me. i suppose VOTE: puppy

I dunno if I've mentioned it since near the start of day 1 but Puppy's felt really open about his reads and what he thinks about other people's opinions and I think that's very likely to come from town - like pulling this from his iso for example

Votato I lean town. I’m more torn on r2r/NPOM and think it’s likely one of them is scum. If both NPOM and votato are scum together they did one helluva convincing job since the early stages when Atarashi was still around. So I think if you wanted to suspect both, sure, but to suspect them both at the same time the way Nauci did it, no. I don’t really buy that.

Thinking votato is scum would be accepting that NPOM is town and vice versa.

I think Blair’s pursuit of Quick was misguided and off a premise that, sure, Quick had two contradictory thoughts of him being mysterious vs him being upfront, but I think that isn’t the greatest reasoning. It’s just Quick being Quick. But she has offered opinions outside of that conflict where I feel scum would naturally just tunnel in that situation and have no real motivation to move off or look towards other players. So sure, town for me rn.

i don't get how r2r fits into this

so u think nauci's progression doesn't make sense because she thinks npom/votato are scum, and there's no way they could both be scum, and this should be obvious to nauci. ok, with u so far

but now you say that votato is lean town, which means by your own logic that NPOM has to be scum, right? (see bolded.) so why are you torn on r2r/NPOM, isn't NPOM already looking scum to you just from votato/NPOM? Your process makes it look like Nauci is scummy for trying to have it both ways, but you look just as uncertain here

Like he's actively trying to figure out what people are thinking and why

I do think that he's wrong about you being scum but I pretty strongly think that he's town here

hmm

[hellbooks]

VPB was in the second game I ever played here and then in a few more that Vi modded in the way back times

VP, does Gamma bus?

My strongest opinion so far is that Puppy looks surprisingly town for how early it is - his/her posting seems very open and straightforward so far and I think that kind of mindset is much more likely to come from town than scum

also this

[hellbooks]

yes that's what I'm implying here. I think Gamma's confidence in the puppy townread suggests he knows that puppy is town

lol.
let's see this thru no need for it to be secret anyway

[hellbooks]

goodness gracious I'm so embarrassed

[hellbooks]

Keep this on the DL okay guys?

[hellbooks]

oh hush you. I don't even know who that is. what? haha.

[hellbooks]

I dont think i've ever been pretending to be a newbie. I mean I'm pretty familiar with the terminology, haven't played any newbies etc etc.

[hellbooks]

to be quite frank accidentally outing myself has been like enormously poisonous to me wanting to post in this game and check the site in general but i give you my word i'll put in some labor tomorrow

[hellbooks]

@hellbooks Where is your read on puppy atm? If puppy flips red, where do you propose we should look next?

town but if puppy flips red then I'd lynch vp baltar next

hellbooks play is pretty bad actually, my townread from atarashi is fading

sorry

narrator: It doesn't

towny from midway tho

hellbrooks, why exactly has your play been so waffling if you've been on this site for years and actually know how this game works?

thats my personality in real life too and i've done that for quite a few years as well so there you have it, sorry im annoying

Yeah, you really should have some reads at this point... I remember you are more of a cautious player but something tells me you are being too hedgy. You keep saying "Hmm" "I don't know" and the like. I don't buy it. Pretty soon you will unvote Puppy and that will be a bad look for you..

in fact i already did so take that bad look to the bank baby

I was actually baiting this move by hellbooks with my naked vote on Puppy. It turns out both midway and hellbooks had really bad reactions to my vote on Puppy IIRC, but I think hellbooks was worse given that midway just blatantly calls Puppy Town and hellbooks just skirts the issue with an "Uhg" without any explanation.

dang!

also i think its funny that puppy colors himself the same as the flipped townies. i will say that if puppy is town that does make me more likely to be scum, but it feels like he's trying to manipulate people with pretty colors while not saying that's what he's doing. and if instead of assuming that puppy is town, if we just color his name in red, his "case" on me looks way worse.

terrible angle but it comes from town

My case for hellbrooks being a good choice would be that she is waffling more than I think is reasonable, she could definitely fit with Gamma, and she is posting plenty in GD on her other account ... so she is clearly around more than we are seeing.

big part of the poison here

@hellbrooks - why is outing the alt "poisonous" to you wanting to post here? I mean, it was an accident. I don't think anyone thinks less of you for doing it.

well before i was unworried about the game and now i am like strongly worried

[hellbooks]

big part of the poison here

to clarify: about my alt being in gd. let me shit post in peace

[hellbooks]

dunn definitely feels like hes consistently been a step removed from the game but i felt like his reaction to the claim felt kind of unassailably town which makes me want to overlook scummy play

[hellbooks]

And Votato pushed a lot of bad wagons on day 2.

I think my read on you makes sense, I guess you're pointing to it because it changes and that's bad supposedly

why would i push wagons on townies and then NK them immediately?

what??

this is a phenomenally bad post

[hellbooks]

VOTE: hellbooks

uh oh!!!

VOTE: midway

oh shit!!!

[hellbooks]

why are you changing your vote so much
hellbooks reaction was pretty funny, but you should have kept the L-1 threat there

yeah hahaha almost like he cant make up his mind lol cant commit right ahsjahjahahaha
sorry i was trying to be like funny but that came off as bitter

I feel like I'm on your target list no matter how you're trying to relate it tho...

The sort of reason for that is that you are not making posts that I think are town

ok. But why are you worried more? Look, I don't care about your alt or if you're spending more time in GD. I think the issue is that you seem to be not trying this game and coasting, even though you're active on the site. If you were adding to the scumhunting here, but posting in GD 10 times as much, I doubt it would look scummy.

I would say I am trying like a medium amount

checking for midway gamma interactions

[hellbooks]

jack shit from gamma on midway o_o

[hellbooks]

precious little on gamma from midwaybear too o_o

don't worry. If you are town, blair is dead tmrw
there are no redirecting roles in normal games

this feels kinda town :\

[hellbooks]

i said i had a pr? What game is this?

ftr i also had this assumption.

[hellbooks]

i think mavs not dying suggests that scum is trying to push the "doubting mavs's claim" angle.

[hellbooks]

what's scummy about quickhammering?

[hellbooks]

That would implicate both votato (for not being NK’ed over the VT)

doesn't this type of logic also loosely implicate you? regardless i'm kind of locked in to you being town atm
I'd lynch puppy before dunn but i'd sooner lynch VP Baltar or r2r.

[hellbooks]

R2R feels stagnant and had a bad switch onto midway and it feels like he's coasting and letting lynches just happen + I really do think D1 hard busses are fully plausible and they happen not infrequently.

VP Baltar seems to me to be setting up to lay down a Dunn vote but wants to be more careful about it plus it feels like he's letting the quick hammer argument (which I don't find compelling at all) completely redirect him from his gameview yesterday which seemed to be that me and midway were the scummiest people (and now there's not a mention of me) + has not really posted anything to escape my POE pool for a full day phase

Puppy and votato are a tier above those two; Puppy's play was good yesterday but it's definitely plausible for scum to pull out some effortful play in response to pressure, votato I wrote off yesterday bc of his reaction to mavs claim had me thinking he had claimed PR, the bussing comment is hella weird but probably has very slight town vibes

[hellbooks]

I had a whole post written up about this but didn’t want to sound LAMIST (what up VP?)

i think you're like locked in as town for me at this point

dunn

does

seem to be playing very reactive right now

We can't let you go unpunished for lolhammers. We also get at least as much info from your lynch as from Puppy's

bad but also feels like a towny thing to say. in fact votato is becoming like a top townread

What are you talking about that I'm just realizing it now? I was pushing hellbrooks yesterday and talking about Puppy's case as well. Dunn's hammer performance was basically a dead giveaway, so what I'm saying isn't some new realization.

in a sort of reversal of the argument here: you seem almost too comfortable with your solve

Not the world's biggest fan of this suspicion everywhere approach. I think as town, we need to really start focusing and closing doors here. I still don't think we're in a slam dunk position in this game, and hitting scum today is a top priority. If we can do that, we'll be on easy street I think.

you're right about closing doors though. which is kind of consistent with your sticking to the same solve.

I actually had the same concern. He was super fast to get on that wagon (to the point where I've basically had to hold a vote because I don't want a self-hammer from scum!Dunn). I also find the fact that he above tried to inject the possibility of Dunn town/VP scum highly concerning. There's not really logic behind that thinking.

feels weird that you are saying you're holding your vote to prevent Dunn from self-hammering? Like it's like you're blaming for someone for being on the wagon while also nominally being on the wagon (only withholding your vote for a mechanical reason and not due to lack of conviction). That seems like a weird contingency thing but maybe I've just not really seen scum do that too often.

I feel like I could say the same about you

but you like can't though.

[hellbooks]

I'll go through dunn and gamma's isos tomorrow.

[hellbooks]

hi, I'm scum and I don't like people pointing that out. I'll make a drawn out process of arriving at Dunn scum soon!

[hellbooks]

Further, puppy already did that work yesterday...

So I should just trust puppy? o_o

[hellbooks]

Dunn is the second vote on gamma, before any claim stuff / before when quick comes in
Blair says it might be good to examine that bc it could be scum picking up on a PR tell
Dunn says that's implausible and he voted before Blair's soft

You claim to have sent me disloyal fruit... which is kind of like an investigation result; why didn't you ask me if I received it at some point?

town post

[hellbooks]

^ tl;dr version -- "hi, I'm scum and I don't like people pointing that out. I'll make a drawn out process of arriving at Dunn scum soon!"

if you were actually scumhunting you'd wait for me to go through the drawn out process of arriving at dunn scum and then pounce on it

[hellbooks]

instead you're just interested in tossing shade

[hellbooks]

working backwards for what puppy has to say about dunn

do we? i think it's the only thing he's done that looks town, though it could just have been an accident. try to bus your partner and distance without knowing there's a cop with a guilty on him. i think overall it's null-town

i think this is the correct take on this

* Dunn still refuses to take responsibility for the D1 hammer. He keeps blaming quick for telling him to hammer. This is a cop out.

just like imagine getting heat for a D1 quickhammer and then deciding to blast out another hammer as scum. right? that's the reason I'm not reading it as scum

and then, magically, when a lynch on me picks up steam, dunn suddenly declares that i'm scummy for vague, unsubstantiated reasons that completely invalidate the reads he's given all this time

the exchange talking about here is page 79/80 i believe and dunn does kind of suck here, not for the puppy vote but more I think there's a desire from scum, when getting pushed for some detail, to get stuck in the weeds of the detail in self-preservation... similar to "scum getting caught for the wrong reasons" and I think that's what's happening here
the puppy vote itself doesn't mean much to me, he does seem to have kind of an "omgus" personality

[hellbooks]

You claim to have sent me disloyal fruit... which is kind of like an investigation result; why didn't you ask me if I received it at some point?

town post

it just really seems to me like dunn didn't get fruit you know what i mean

[hellbooks]

yeah? a vote on me and a vote on dunn are the same good? why aren't you voting for the one with the existing wagon then? sounds like you just want me gone.

[hellbooks]

So what exactly are you waiting for then? I'm not trying to provoke you with this question. I just want it to be known what your intentions are.

[hellbooks]

it's the opposite. he doesn't think it's anything else.

[hellbooks]

it's the opposite. he doesn't think it's anything else.

Who do you think is the scum then?

you're my top scumread! Hopefully that doesn't come as a surprise to you right now! VP, if we lynch dunn and he flips town, what's your follow up? Where do you look next? what's the impact on your solve?

[hellbooks]

if literally everyone agrees on lynching dunn and he flips scum (and let the record show that i do NOT think this)-- please do not discount VP Baltar. He's simultaneously going with the accepted opinion that dunn should die while also trying to pivot it away to a wagon on me.

[hellbooks]

R2R feels stagnant and had a bad switch onto midway and it feels like he's coasting and letting lynches just happen + I really do think D1 hard busses are fully plausible and they happen not infrequently.

VP Baltar seems to me to be setting up to lay down a Dunn vote but wants to be more careful about it plus it feels like he's letting the quick hammer argument (which I don't find compelling at all) completely redirect him from his gameview yesterday which seemed to be that me and midway were the scummiest people (and now there's not a mention of me) + has not really posted anything to escape my POE pool for a full day phase

It's interesting that the two people who I have as scumreads right now: r2r and vp baltar -- have since been the ones to vote me today. (Of course, it's no surprise as both of them have been scumreading me for a while now.) However I think this is a weak point against them being scum together. I don't think that two scum would be so bold as to be #1 and #2 to be pushing a mislynch.

[hellbooks]

dunn, as the de facto lynch, seems to be largely a non presence here, mostly just pushing out weak platitudes and omgus statements. could imply a "caught" scum

[hellbooks]

look -- if everyone in the room is of a strong mind to lynch dunn, then that's a bunch of townies and one bussing scum coming together to make the inevitable happen. I just happen to be a holdout who's being idiotic and refusing to see it. But even more annoyingly, I'm not the type of person with the type of conviction to tell EVERYONE ELSE in the room: stop this nonsense. As in, am I SO confident to say that dunn should live to endgame? Am I willing to say that dunn should be there as a LYLO variable? Well, no. hell no. Because everyone else will pounce on him then, when the stakes are much higher.

What I'm trying to do right now is just get all of what I think out on the table, just get all my thoughts out there, and if people are finding those thoughts useful then great.

My thought is, well firstly: sorry for being such a thorn in your side. especially if you do turn out to be town. That definitely seems like it would be frustrating if you're town but, like -- if your messaging right now is "oh i'm so confident that hellbooks and dunn are scum together. we've got this game on lock. I'M just waiting for everyone else to say their piece so we can move this along. in fact, when hellbooks asks me who will I consider if dunn flips town, I'm not even going to answer that. that's how confident I am."

that's what I'm hearing from you right now. Then why are you so on edge? Are you worried "some townie" is gonna start a wagon on you? where's your head at right now cause I don't understand why you come off as so frustrated with me -- to me that belies some kind of worry.

[hellbooks]

Hi i intend to make a longer post when i find my way to my computer but i find that i rather urgently ought to say that I am coming around on VP baltar.

[hellbooks]

I'm most interested in hearing from hellbrooks and votato first. I also think we may be at the point where a mass claim is beneficial. I have thoughts about the order, but if we do it I think r2r should decide since he is probably the closest to confirmed town I see.

I'm fine with mass claim.

I think R2R is cleared (curious why he’s still alive tbh).

We went through this yesterday but -- the same for you. If I had to guess, it's a reads-based kill. I don't see any other reason to leave both you and r2r alive (as in, you can't

both

be scum)

And R2R came into day 4 pushing Dunn.

Except so was everyone, and then R2R switched to me. That's a point against him in my book.

i dont remotely like that mav r2r and Vp are still alive over puppy. unless we are totally off-base here that kill makes no sense.

well who is puppy a threat to right now?

pretty sure thats it. so i think if we lynch hellbooks and then think really hard today about what tomorrow's lynch ought to be if she flips town then we should be golden.

I understand if I can't fight against this lynch, like completely. I mean, my dunn read was pretty atrocious and it's natural that the consequence for that is a lynch. But I'll try to give some arguments in this regard. If I were dunn's partner townreading I'd have tried to put forth a counterwagon instead of being okay with his lynch. plus -- why do I kill puppy here??? [i would suggest that actually puppy implicates you + it seems like you know that i'm town here with this statement.]

Pedit: Hellbrooks and I were in the middle of a convo yesterday, Mavs, and I think it is probably fair for me to give her a chance to continue today.

Yeah. let me go back and respond once I get through what's happened today so far.

Gimme something hellbooks. Who do you think is scum and why? Any guesses on why R2R is still alive?

Well, here's a reason on why R2R is alive --

he's scum

??? :shrug:

Interested to hear from hellbooks, particularly how the Dunn flip alters her potential scum

Yeah. I think VP is town

Also since I haven't played a non-open setup in a while, is there any possibility that there are 4 scum and we're in lylo? Or am I getting too worried and that's out of the question?

really weird to say but also plausible that you're out of the loop here. Yeah there's no way it's 4 scum. this statement is a point in your favor -- not that scum isn't capable of faking a statement like this and in fact i would say it's even likely that scum would fake this -- but it seems very unnecessary for a scum in your position to raise this point

hellbooks, you are today's inevitable lynch. if you're scum, could you do us a favor and just tell us so we can end the game? if you're town, it would be great to get some proper contribution from you today so we are well-prepared for lylo tomorrow.

Welcome to my proper contribution. Town blood runs through my veins.

Someone needs to explain to me why scum!hellbooks would NK the ONLY person in the game that wasn't scumreading her

Another [mild] point in R2R's favor. If he's the scum, the natural thing to do is push my mislynch along. Especially since he's positioned nicely to do so by holding a scumread on me from yesterday. However, it's plausible that he feels comfortable enough that this mislynch will happen to mildly push against it for cred. All in all it pushes the needle towards town, enough so that I think votato is maybe the person to be examining primarily here

Re: claim. I'm VT.

[hellbooks]

i guess a good argument for puppy to die above r2r and mavs is that scum just thought that the TvS pseudoclear from yesterday would have made him unmislynchable

[hellbooks]

want to go through dunn's iso tonight or tomorrow but yeah I'd say you have good reason to kill puppy + you were pushing VP as the dunn partner yesterday and have pivoted to me (mislynch of least resistance) for what I see to be no real good reason. mavs -- yeah. I mean it's just weird he's still alive but that's not reason enough in itself I think

[hellbooks]

ugh how has ready2rock suddenly become my top townread

[hellbooks]

hellbooks, you are today's inevitable lynch.

i literally love the vibe evoked here, it's like "hellbooks, you are today's 100th caller." congratulations, the prize is We will Come to your House and Punch You

[hellbooks]

oh fuck!!!!!!! well thanks. lol. Again sorry for like being bad.

[hellbooks]

absolutely a timeline where I hammer wrong in LYLO and just place the final cherry on top of me fully cocking this game up. However -- I will like try very hard to Not do that

[hellbooks]

Last and most important, setup wise it doesn't make sense for there to be THREE investigative roles unless the scum have some kind of super powers we have not seen this game. The fact that they weren't killing power roles left and right makes me think that is not the case (ie, some type of role cop or something to compensate for three investigators).

definitely something I'm thinking right now\

I really don’t know between votato/VP. You’re both voting me and one of you guys is scum and one is town being duped....

earlier you said votato was clear from dunn push
+ re: you saying you can't generate guilties. There's really little reason for scum to lie about getting fruit if they don't suspect disloyal bc if they perceive you as a regular fruit vendor then saying they didn't get fruit would enter them into a 1v1 between them and you.

I'll be honest here, I do see a scenario where you are some type of scum fruit vendor and town PRs receive fruit.

had this thought but I don't see this being a normal role?

im so fuckin thankful for R2R. unlikely allies born from a mutual suspicion... what a beautiful story. you better be town. anyway gonna go reread D4.

[hellbooks]

oh thats L-2. ok I'm gonna leave the vote, because i have faith in you all. and because its very unlikely that scum will come in and quickhammer here considering I am already hard bussing and cant double-vote.

cheeky af if scum

As far as I’m concerned, I’ll like vote Puppy/Dunn and see what happens after a flip....

feels like someone gauging where the wind blows to see if they can squeeze out a Puppy ML

This does actually read like you're defending Dunn a bit ngl

motivation for votato to kill puppy (his solve being a potential dunn / votato)

Someone give me a Dunn case outside of the hammer. Sure, they look sketchy af, but WIFOM, scum wouldn’t do that twice cause they know how sketchy it is. His progression to midway was bs. I’ll agree with that. His progression day 3 from votato to puppy I think is fair. I’ll hafta look through him in way more detail, but if you make the claim that Dunn is scum, then his vote on Gamma was an early bus to gain town-cred. His 1175 appears fishing for town-cred. I still believe Occam’s razor is that scum!Dunn wouldn’t actually bus his scum mate there.

uh oh!

Maybe quick was onto something when he said it was one of Votato/Vp Baltar

is this mavs being presented to us on a silver platter... seems too clean lol

i feel like we kinda have to lynch dunn today in the end

dunn's partner would probably be *thinking* this but dunn's partner would probably not be *saying* this

I kind of had some wifom thoughts like that but I decided to trust my gut and my VCA and not overthink it when I've got way bigger scumreads

motivation for VP to not kill puppy

^ tl;dr version -- "hi, I'm scum and I don't like people pointing that out. I'll make a drawn out process of arriving at Dunn scum soon!"

VP baltar and I, now the best of friends, nostalgically looking back at old photos of us yelling at each other

Because Dunn could just self hammer then, thus ending the day and giving you a better chance of escaping.

Nice try to goad me into that though.

i guess i'll be watching closely to see if there's a clear reason for VP to hammer when he did, since he really didn't want the day to end early

[hellbooks]

Okay, so I’m super torn between hellbooks and puppy. Dunn has been scummy, but see my argument why I think he’s not actually scum. I l’m concerned right now with hellbooks amassing votes cause she does seem like low hanging fruit. And before y’all blast me for the terminology, midway was basically the same thing. And at least a few townies voted that.

draw your own conclusions from this

To be clear hellbrooks: I am not frustrated with you. This is a game played online and I think you're a very nice person for potentially worrying about upsetting people. I would never take a game so seriously as to be mad at you or anyone else over it.

beginning of our friendship arc

just as im starting to have some doubts about dunn he comes and reassures me that he really is the best lynch for today.

lol.... if votato is scum he is pulling off some pretty slick interactions

@Dunn: dude, you gotta give me more than that? Who is Puppy’s partner? You had votato/Puppy not that long ago. So now you’re on Puppy? What is your read on votato? Why hammer midway if 1) he’s extremely unlikely to be partnered with votato and 2) you’ve previously never really suspected him and didn’t previously suggest a Puppy/midway pairing? Look, I tried to get Puppy lynched yesterday. Both Puppy and midway were at 3 a piece then votato and eventually you jumped to midway for the lynch.

idk does scum press for information from a partner when they draw the conclusion that their lynch is inevitable? (mavs switched to dunn just a few posts before this)

admit i was surprised to read this and then find a dunn vote at the end

^ possibly points to an awkward pivot then

I think I’m alive over Quick either cause scum!Puppy didn’t want to kill me and have everyone swarm on him OR cause scum!Dunn knew getting me to lynch Puppy with him was almost assured. Quick was such mislynch fodder that VP & myself had voted him. Votato I think would’ve as well. He was all over the place and had lead lynched on NPOM, resisted the Gamma lynch forever, and was a major reason midway was lynched. Why he was NK’ed is beyond me. NKA is useless and very subject to WIFOM but I’d be lying if I didn’t say it played some factor in my turn on Dunn.

oh jeez. this seems towny

[hellbooks]

I don't think there's a normal queue role that checks to see if somebody has fruit - so you're overthinking with Votato

Don't you think you should have asked me/midway to claim whether we had ever gotten fruit before revealing your full hand?

You claim to have sent me disloyal fruit... which is kind of like an investigation result; why didn't you ask me if I received it at some point?

I see you saying grapes here though, which looks like another soft. Or was that you trying to get my attention?

feels like implicates mavs town
but -- then what the fuck is this setup

[hellbooks]

i might acquiesce to R2R because he's had a better track record so far and is gonna die tonight but
happy to talk it out. dunnstral could definitely be bussing votato, he was perfectly capable of bussing gamma

[hellbooks]

@hellbooks: I don't know about better record, as you puppy and midway were scumreads for me for quite a bit of this game. Do I understand your ranking to be mavs, then votato, then VP from scummiest to not?

i guess it's less about the amount of evidence i have but what evidence i find unassailable. as to that i'm still trying to figure that out but I'd say yeah. mavs, then votato and VP are really close but i think you've got it. Like, I think VP has pretty good Dunn partner equity and I think votato has pretty low Dunn partner equity but aside from that VP is simply making townier posts.

Dunn clearly had a play for claiming that mavs has admitted would've been better. If that's the case, why didn't Dunn discuss and advise this with mavs in the thread?
If the scumteam thought there was some kind of fruit checker in the game, as mavs clearly did, why did he pin fruit on his scumbuddy that he thought was clear?

yeah this is definitely a hard sell. I was also thinking this-- just doesn't seem like scum theater

yeah exactly. mav kinda has to be town.

this is not a winning play for scum to make. scum need to push through two MLs
So... i think votato is towniest ?????

[hellbooks]

This is absolutely silly. I can't imagine a scenario where I as town would ever say "give me this one today, and then if it's wrong we can just lynch townie ol' me tomorrow in Lylo". Like, what?

agree and I think in LYLO situations scum tends to say this more often than town actually. But -- again, if votato is scum, it's just weird AF to be absolutely fully locked into only one of the two choices when you need to be MLing both

Hellbooks if you're opposed to a votato lynch and want to play out the day a bit longer feel free to say so

i'd say i'm not opposed

[hellbooks]

i think i intend on voting VP tomorrow

[hellbooks]

I'm going to wait to hear what mavs has to say before responding to you if you don't mind

[hellbooks]

I should be clear to you now.

[hellbooks]

this is my nightmare scenario
i'll do some thinking tonight lmao

[hellbooks]

I want to put this on the table that I'm leaning VP Baltar quite heavily.

i guess the big thing in favor of voting mavs is the potential setup questions it raises + pretty bad assocs with dunn. but again i'm drawing from this Mutual Decision made by the three conftown people who have lived the longest (r2r, votato, and me) that VP is the scummier person.

I can see VP's ninja theory as town paranoia and in fact I can say from my secure position as town that -- it's like a plausible theory. Ninja seems like a natural counter to tracker for example. However - I don't like the fact that it also hopes to achieve this three-way situation of LYLO confusion in which no clears exist (which scum benefits from strongly, reducing the chance of loss from 50 to 33), which is promptly destroyed by mavs being like, "no. hellbooks is town." and voting VP. which seems like a strong town move, rather than capitalizing on that potential paranoia.

Ok, so yeah, hellbrooks...the setup literally makes no sense as laid out with the info we have. Mavs has to be lying about his claim.

yeah. You're right. That's the big thing isn't it -- it's that third scum role that's the unknown factor. Is it more likely for that third scum role to be able to be the final balancing piece in the puzzle i mean, i don't know. I guess... well this veers sharply into setup spec territory... is 3 investigatives (i'd say more like 2.5... traffic analyst + disloyal fruit vendor seem like 0.75 each maybe?) really *that* implausible? town needs a lot of power to manage 10-3. i dont know. I mean there's a world where it's balanced right (our PRs have given us quite a lot and we've still made it to a 50/50 LYLO).

Look, I’ve really got nothing else to say.

feels like a thing to say in LYLO that has slight scum equity

The irony of the least decisive player needing to decide this game hasn't been lost on me.

isn't it? Well, if I was wrong then I'll say -- every town member has been wrong to some degree, but I happened to be the most wrong at the worst time!

I only want to let the day go on as long as I think there's a chance i could be convinced otherwise and I want to second R2R's statement that it's been a fun game.

[hellbooks]

Yesterday i had a dream that mavs was scum for a compelling reason and i woke up and couldn't identify it. that being said, there are just some truths that i can't push past to make that decision.

By the power vested in me by my predecessors:
VOTE: VP Baltar

have I driven this town to ruin? will the dead thread haunt me for the rest of time?

[hellbooks]

YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[hellbooks]

thanks for resolving so quickly and VP BALTAR HELL OF A GAME