Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[VP Baltar]

hey hey old friend
VOTE: VP Baltar

Respect your elders.

VOTE: CantLynchAPuppy

I'm a cat

person.

Logic checks out.

Also, science has proven, you can indeed lunch a puppy.

VOTE: CantLynchAPuppy

[VP Baltar]

Lunch or whatever

[VP Baltar]

I'm an old now. This is my first game in 7 years or so, but I probably played 40 or 50 games here back I'm the day.

OH yeah, I've played with Blair before, a lot a lot. She's normally a little more active than this, she's probably just waiting for a chance o lynch the puppy.

A little more active? We are like 5 mins into this game. What would you be expecting or what do you mean by this?

[VP Baltar]

NPOM is my first slight TR.

Help an old guy...what do these abbreviations mean?

[VP Baltar]

You don't understand, usually by now Blair has the class settled down and school is in session. You'll see I guess, or maybe not, don't want to poison the well here, (Sorry Blair!)

So you're saying in your past experience, Blair would be serious out of the gates? Want to make sure I'm interpreting correctly

[VP Baltar]

NPOM is my first slight TR.

Help an old guy...what do these abbreviations mean?

NoPowerOverMe = NPOM

Meant the TR part

[VP Baltar]

Got you. Sorry for being dense

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: Puppy

Be advised, I have exited RVS.

in that case: justification? hopping on a wagon without justification post RVS seems bad

*Checks vote count before this*

A wagon you say?

unvote: puppy
Vote: votato

[VP Baltar]

You say that and hop off of the wagon onto one that doesn't exist??

I don't understand the question.

I'm saying there was no wagon at the time Blair voted. Just my early game vote. It was some classic scum early game "analysis".

Blair, you seem town. Votato is not.

[VP Baltar]

Votato is not.

Say more.

The questioning of your vote and calling it a "wagon" when I had an RVS vote on Puppy seemed disingenuous to me.

[VP Baltar]

your post style is also rather different. you are usually an analytical player with long wallposts. here you are asking questions and pressing people.

So you find him less aggressive this game? Mind linking the games you read? I'd like to take a look myself.

[VP Baltar]

slightly town-reading Atarashi for the L-1 fake out interactions, which makes VPB look pretty bad

Excuse me? I was not involved in any of that.

What are your thoughts on votato?

[VP Baltar]

What are your thoughts on votato?

My bad. You answered this. That's what I get for posting as I read

[VP Baltar]

votato - Based on 55, 80, 175, 180, they have a natural reaction of trying to give town more information and have what I consider natural trains of thought that are explained easily which would be very difficult for scum to fake

I think we have different definitions of "natural train of thought"


Speaking of which, I don't get them scum vibes from Atarashi either.

There are A LOT of people in this game I want to hear more from.

[VP Baltar]

Look at my recent games for a laugh.

Who supplies your coffee, and where can I get some?

You have experience with votato I see. How does he compare this game?

[VP Baltar]

Fair enough.

Thoughts on Atarashi?

[VP Baltar]

Are you saying you don't get a read from those posts, or, specifically, that you're getting scummy, forced vibes from them?

They have an air of being forced to me. Granted, could just be bad town play...but I'm more skeptical than that (or at the very least, my gut doesn't trigger that way). They felt more like scum out over their skis than the strong town read you said you got from them.

Fwiw I considered moving my vote but wanted to wait until A: the next vote count, and B: players to be around so I can see real time reactions

Actually, yeah, why haven't you moved your vote?

I'm not entirely following the logic in your move from town to scum vibes Atarashi. What am I missing?

[VP Baltar]

Why are you not voting him then?

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: votato

Sheep me and I will shepherd, nobody is on a wagon as good as this one

Shepherd me.
VOTE: votato

I support this vote. Can we hear your reasoning though?

[VP Baltar]

Nauci

I'd be interested in hearing more on your reasoning for this read.

[VP Baltar]

Any particular posts or moments where you feel that way?

[VP Baltar]

I had Votato in my low hanging fruit farmer pile as null.

Reason or gut?

[VP Baltar]

@VP, how do we know you are not pushing miss lynch bait?

I don't even know Miss Lynch...

I kid, I kid.

I think votato is what many might call a "wedge issue." I'm not much of a fan of the poor logic or "fuck you" reaction to being questioned. It feels like inexperienced scum to me ... which is low hanging fruit, but the delicious kind. That being said, I can see people reading that as town or scum...hence why I'm trying to get people on the record on votato. At the very least, I think this conversation will be fruitful for town later. (Much more so than the 'everyone have a single vote on your favorite scum' status we were at in the last vote count.)

[VP Baltar]

Quick, it would be enormously helpful if you would spend less time trying to cultivate your "WoOoOo I'm SuCh A mYsTeRiOuS eNiGmA" meta for future games and more time trying to help us find scum in this one.

^Agree

[VP Baltar]

votato, you still pretty solid in that Atarashi vote?

sum up for me what you've learned in terms of reads from the wagon on you.

[VP Baltar]

I am not trying to be cryptic, I just see what I post as obvious.

Basically, VP voting for votato tells us nothing and I don't know why he is pushing that. That should be pretty clear at this point if you ISO + votato.

I can understand holding some cards back at times. Nothing wrong with that as town. In fact, I do think you're town. My point is more about don't let the gamesmanship get in the way of the game.

As far as why I'm voting votato. I think I've been fairly clear actually. The flailing under pressure and jumping to unfounded conclusions feels more novice scum to me than town. (though admittedly, this is a gut based on experience. if I had to quantify, I'd say I'm 65% sure he's scum). I strongly believe there is also merit in creating an issue where people have to take sides. Yesterday, there was like 9 pages of fairly inconclusive scum hunting...so I thought I'd step in and offer something that focuses the conversation more.

p-edit

i've learned that i dont care for your playstyle.

and previously on....

VP looks a little prickly

It's hard for a playa out here.

[VP Baltar]

Ur votato vote was originall from RVS

Well that's not true. You were my RVS vote.

Can u elaborate on the exact moment when u decided this was for u a serious vote?

I have, but happy to repeat myself. My vote on him happened here:

VOTE: Puppy

Be advised, I have exited RVS.

in that case: justification? hopping on a wagon without justification post RVS seems bad

*Checks vote count before this*

A wagon you say?

unvote: puppy
Vote: votato

And my reasoning was him accusing Blair of jumping on a Puppy "wagon"...which was just my RVS vote (see above). It wasn't a wagon. Felt like a scummy way to characterize it at the time, so I moved my vote. Since then, I've gained some good reads by continuing push people and votato to take more concrete positions.

p-edit:

are you 65% sure that I'm scum, or were you just trying to generate discussion?

both

if you think im scum then you wouldnt need to try to generate discussion, because the discussion would come naturally from your genuine push on me.

If I just barreled for your lynch as fast as possible, I certainly gain less information about where people stand than if I methodically ask people for their positions on you.

Would you, or anyone, disagree that the votato wagon has created more concrete information in this game than other wagons to this point?

[VP Baltar]

Previously I was puzzled by both your vote and his in that moment.

I mean, there were like 10 pages of pointlessness at the time. I don't blame anyone for not being able to follow all the threads. I certainly couldn't.

[VP Baltar]

Okay, Effort for donkey just means he is Town. That is all I am saying.

I'll bite. Give me the case on Blair.

[VP Baltar]

However, if i don't have u as scum i don't have u as town either. i think u're being a little passive, not in a scummie sense, but i think u are a bigger blank to me than some other posters. Help me out. Do u have a second strong scumread besides votato?

I would not say strong. I do believe there could be some scum bussing interaction around votato. I'd rather keep that close to the vest until I'm more sure. I also think it is very possible there could be some scum in the wall paper crowd of people who are barely posting. Hard to say which, given a lack of stuff to read there. That's another reason we should try to improve the signal-noise ratio.

I have more town reads than scum at this moment. I'd say I'm fairly confident to this point that you, Blair, Quick and Atarashi are more likely town than scum.

[VP Baltar]

Hi, stop blowing up my spot. I do not want to get NKed

[VP Baltar]

Hi, stop blowing up my spot. I do not want to get NKed

This was to puppy

[VP Baltar]

5 pages over night....y'all are crazy and this better be good.

[VP Baltar]

VP also completely ignored all the questions asked of him. interesting.

Pardon? I've tried to answer all questions directed my way. I'm sure there are things that have been missed along the way though due to the river of content, so feel free to point them out.

going through your ISO, I see this in post 244:

puppy and VP, what are your reads? what do you think of atarashi? you're both asking questions without actually offering up any thoughts of your own.

this was at the time with your name calling match with puppy, which i found quite silly and passed through relatively quickly since I was also working at that time. I've given reads at this point, so that answers that question. I do find your effort to slide in a completely unfounded remark like I'm not "offering up any thoughts of your own" complete cum BS. I'm 100% out in front here pushing your wagon to get people to weigh in, and it's not exactly like it's the most popular position to go after a likely scum who people think is too wreckless to not be town.

As far as I can see, I've directly addressed every other question you've put to me. This again fits with the pattern I identified when I first had a weird twinge about you and voted: You mischaracterize because you are fake scum hunting.

Hi again VP!

it's ur responsibilit to not get NK'd, not mine!

It's your responsibility to be good town. A mild reading between the lines of my words, which you accurately did, revealed where my head was at about possible busing. My point was there wasn't a benefit to the town making that more explicit there than it needed to be.

Quick: Blair is saying you were lying because you, on 3 separate occasions, claimed you purposely post enigmatically/mysteriously, and then in the 4th post claimed that you were NOT trying to be cryptic, which totally contradicts the previous 3 posts

Blair: I think that Quick both meant what he said the first 3 times, and what he said with that last bit, because A: the part about him NOT trying to be cryptic was referring to a very specific subset of his posts, and B: he sometimes owns the fact that he's unintentionally cryptic because he doesn't explain his theories well enough, but sometimes he also says that this happens because he's intentionally being mysterious. It's the sort of thing that has gotten him mislynched many a time. I think that if you're going to scum read him, you have to go a bit deeper than surface contradictions.

Major town points on Nauci here for me. I had been eyeing her carefully, but only town would defuse this pointless fight that well. Not looking great for you iDany.

Atarashi are more likely town than scum

What led you to determine this before he has come back today and responded to the scum reads on him?

Atarashi won me over with his initial flurry. Obviously I could be wrong and I want to hear more from him. But I got solid town vibes from what i have seen.

Okay, Effort for donkey just means he is Town. That is all I am saying.

I'll bite. Give me the case on Blair.

In 376, VP Baltar says he’s pretty sure Quick and Blair are town. I don’t think town!VP Baltar asks his TR Quick about their case on TR Blair. Town!VP Baltar would only asks this if he’s scum reading at least one of Quick/Blair.

His town read post came after a Blair vs Quick so it’s possible he read that as TvT since, but that means he was scum reading Blair since he was town reading Quick in 317.

He never makes a push on Blair prior to this or expresses any sort of scum read on Blair. I think the above is disingenuous and he looking for town to eat itself here.

Vote: VP Baltar

Two things here. First, the fighting between them later definitely enforced my sense of TvT. Second, the point of me asking that question was to try to get Quick to articulate his case, which at that point felt very flimsy and undefined (at one point his reasoning to Puppy was that Blair seemed "off" because Puppy said she was good). I had hoped that by asking Quick to explain, he would be forced to acknowledge the case was weak and he might move on to a more productive path. I'll admit i did not have thorough follow through, in part because Quick's playstyle is a little exhausting for me to read.

Okay, Effort for donkey just means he is Town. That is all I am saying.

I'll bite. Give me the case on Blair.

So at the time of this question, Blair’s VC was 2, NPOM and Quick. NPOM voted Blair way back in 189. Quick voted Blair closer to this post in 270 while baiting “feel free to ask me for my reasoning” which makes me believe that VP Baltar is directing the above at Quick.

In 376, VP Baltar says he’s pretty sure Quick and Blair are town. I don’t think town!VP Baltar asks his TR Quick about their case on TR Blair. Town!VP Baltar would only asks this if he’s scum reading at least one of Quick/Blair.

His town read post came after a Blair vs Quick so it’s possible he read that as TvT since, but that means he was scum reading Blair since he was town reading Quick in 317.

He never makes a push on Blair prior to this or expresses any sort of scum read on Blair. I think the above is disingenuous and he looking for town to eat itself here.

Vote: VP Baltar

this is what i was talking about when i said i was waiting for juicy/tasty posts. atarashi is not off the hook, but VOTE: VP

I am jack's complete lack of surprise at this vote.

-Among active people, I think my biggest suspicion is on VP, as he seems to be trying to jump on minor more obvious things people say

Oh really? elaborate on this please..because literally just above in this post, you literally sheep my reasoning for voting votato...which is that he mischaracterizes posts.

for reference:

Also not a fan of 301 when he misinterprets what puppy is saying

And then there is this hilarious turn:

OK so I can't read today and there's only 1 vote on VP, so let's make it 2

VOTE: VP Baltar

Which is "DINGALINGALING, here comes the scum counter wagon to votato because he can't quite shake the pressure."

mavs and votato had just voted me. In fact, here is WHAT YOU LITERALLY JUST SAID IN THE PREVIOUS POST:

pedit: OK was about to vote and wanted to look for the last vote count first and

2 new votes on VP happened, brb gonna go count

Bold emphasis mine. So you knew there were two votes, and then you immediately cast a vote and tried to avoid any attention for hopping on that scummy as hell wagon by saying "oh I haven't read" and then intentionally misstated the vote count on me so people would believe you hadn't read.

Unvote, Vote: ready2rock

[VP Baltar]

Like, I didn't even fully catch up. That r2r goof is 100% scum.

[VP Baltar]

tl;dr because I don't want to be wall posting. If you skimmed my post above, r2r is lying scum. Here is the case in one place.

here is this hilarious turn:

r2r wrote:
OK so I can't read today and there's only 1 vote on VP, so let's make it 2

VOTE: VP Baltar


Which is "DINGALINGALING, here comes the scum counter wagon to votato because he can't quite shake the pressure."

mavs and votato had just voted me. In fact, here is WHAT YOU LITERALLY JUST SAID IN THE PREVIOUS POST:

r2r wrote:
pedit: OK was about to vote and wanted to look for the last vote count first and 2 new votes on VP happened, brb gonna go count

Bold emphasis mine. So you knew there were two votes, and then you immediately cast a vote and tried to avoid any attention for hopping on that scummy as hell wagon by saying "oh I haven't read" and then intentionally misstated the vote count on me so people would believe you hadn't read.

Unvote, Vote: ready2rock

[VP Baltar]

@EVERYONE

Flash-reads on Quick, please! For verily and forsooth doth I have need of them!

Blair, I think out of the two of you, you're actually making a case and I can see why you feel the way you do. I see your lynch all liars logic, and you are right it is a good guide to scum. I think there is a question of intent behind Quick's posts. I think the discrepancy you point out reads more like a player goofing and not paying attention to how dumb it looks.

If we are following the lynch all liars logic, don't you think the case on r2r is better?

[VP Baltar]

OK some questions for VP

1) You said early on in the thread that you didn't like puppy talking about blair's inactivity. Did that actually affect your read one way or the other, since you had your vote on them at the time? And thoughts on puppy now?

2) Since you asked for the case on Blair (336) and since then a lot of discussion has happened between her and quick. Thoughts on Blair now?

3) Do you still think there's value in pressuring votato more at this stage?

1) puppy is town. said as much.

2) Blair is town. said as much. Also addressed mavs question in my previous post.

3) I think there is value in lynching votato and in lynching you, yes.

[VP Baltar]

Can you distill the case on R2R down to its simplest terms? Don't bother with links or quotes, I see you have already provided them, and I will refer back to them if I need them.

Give me the Reader's Digest, 1-3 sentence summary please.

Yep for sure.

OK, so r2r has been hella lurking. I have said I think there is scum clearly lurking in this game, given how may of the prolific players feel town to me. Then r2r comes back when a counter wagon forms to votato. In his return post (#403 8:15pm) he states a very vague suspicion on me that I'm "jumping on minor things." He also states in that post he sees two votes on me that just happened from mavs and votato. He says he's withholding his vote because he wants to check the vote count.

r2r then returns in his next post (#409 8:20pm) and votes me, saying there's only 1 vote on me, "so let's make it 2". He also says in this vote post that he "can't read today". I believe he intentionally misstated the vote count in his vote post so if anyone called him out for being the third vote on my wagon, he could say later "oh whoops, I thought it wasn't a wagon. I said in that post I hadn't read yet."

Two sentence version: I find it hard to believe r2r accurately stated the vote count at 8:15pm and then INACCURATELY stated it five minutes later after he said he was going to check the vote count. More likely answer: He was keeping the door open to justify a bad vote later.

[VP Baltar]

@VP: I can see your case on R2R. You also strongly suggest R2R/Votato scum pairing. After I initially voted you, BOTH jumped on immediately. You think a scum pairing would be that blatant? Seems like an obvious grouping scum would avoid. I’ll agree with you R2R read (not entirely sold on him) but I doubt him and votato are BOTH scum together. I could see them as a scum pairing setting up a counter wagon and know why votato would be more eager as the wagon was on him, but he had chances to move off Atarashi and didn’t and also his vote on you was only the second which could hardly be seen as wagon jumping.

Also, Atarashi did something similar where he messed up a vote count too. I think Atarashi’s vote count mishaps was NAI if anything.

Not sure if you’re making a mountain of a molehill here, but I’m willing to see where this goes.

VOTE: ready2rock

We can flip a scum and see what we think.

I do have to say to the bigger point I've seen this game of people arguing scum are super tricky ...not necessarily. Roles are a random draw and sometimes you get lucky that players who aren't adept as scum draw those roles.

The problem with flipping R2R so early is that we have very little to work with for the rest of the game. Is R2R actually Scum? Which means at least one of my SRs was correct.

Keep in mind R2R pushed me on my reasoning earlier before this wagon happened, thanks.

This would be a legit reason to not at this point, but we should ramp up pressure and make people talk about it.

So your case on me revolves around me misreading the vote count? That's pretty flimsy, which to me strengthens my case that you latch onto minor flimsy mistakes that people make.

Here's my timeline, I reread the thread and posted my thoughts on the game as a whole at that moment, voicing my suspicion of VP among other things. In that time, there were almost 10 new posts made, including both votes on VP. Since I wanted to get my post out there before even more happened, and I hadn't payed a ton of attention to a specific number of votes in the meantime, I wanted to go back and double check that I wasn't putting you at L-1 or anything. When I went back and read, I realized that I had read a vote on you and someone else quoting a vote on you as 2 votes, hence why I was saying that I was the 2nd vote. But now that I'm rereading again today, I realize I was right the first time and didn't see votato's vote in double checking

I don't understand what the difference would be between me being 2nd or 3rd on the wagon?

Also, is me being scum dependent on votato being scum, or the other way around? If one is town, is the other still scum?

Your reasoning doesn't make sense. How can you think there are two votes on me but that there might also be a legit chance your vote would put me at L-1? I really don't follow the logic on the reason you said 1 vote either.

3rd or 4th spot on a wagon is where scum turn up lots of time. Too timid to start something, too afraid of questioning for pushing a mislynch to completion.

As far as you and votato, I think odds on you could both be scum. You might not be with him, but the speed of my wagon certainly seemed like there was incentive to counter the work I had put in on votato.

[VP Baltar]

He sure is active now.

More votes please.

[VP Baltar]

eh, why are we so sure it was a lie? Its too obvious a lie and wouldnt be convincing. Seems more like a mistake. The wagon on vp appeared suddenly because the argument was compelling. Npom you are confbiased. Take a step back and re- evaluate. Every piece of evidence you see points you to him being scum

It was not the truth, which was very clear and he seemed to know literally minutes earlier. I don't know about you, but I don't have dementia enough to forget the difference between two and one moments later.

He sure is active now.

More votes please.

he was lurking, so i scum read him. Now he's active, and that's a scum tell too. What? Lol. He became active prior to the wagon. I'm not gonna sit here and defend him, cuz i have a null read so far. But this case is awful

Yeah. He has lurked most of this game and then starts rapid posting when I put some pressure on him. Which alignment do you think that is more likely from.

As far as "awful", how would you rank the quality of the case against me? In fact, what in your mind is the case against me?

[VP Baltar]

I support people answering Blair directly. Put your cards on the table people so we can keep this game progressing

[VP Baltar]

Oh hey everyone, did someone say brainwashing? I have 7 pages to read. TIME FOR A SCRUBBING

[VP Baltar]

Going more notes style here so I can avoid a giant wall as much as possible for you all. This game is too long for just starting and is going to be a bear for any potential replacements

- Agree with Nauci that votato is still scum. Still a viable lynch today in my book.

- Quick's "system to destroy scum" is, um, problematic at best.... mostly because it's far too complex to consistently yield anything coherent. After a quick scan, I couldn't tell you what the actual decision tree would be with such a system.

Here is a pretty key phrase from said system:

"You can also use this method as Scum because it is a method that is malleable enough to spin things to your liking since most of it is subjective. "

so yeah...moving on

I can actually buy the votecount shenanigans as being a genuine mistake given that I don't really see the point of doing it as scum

I literally explained the reason for doing it as scum. Not a fan of this post to vote for r2r considering that my reasoning was the best reasoning for the vote.

Next point:

My overall point about VP is that I think he's mostly the one who I think has been going for the low hanging fruit in the way that people are accusing votato of doing

Who accused votato of going after low hanging fruit? Also, I wouldn't say any of the cases I've made have really bought me any favoring. In fact, I feel like I'm zagging more than anyone in the game and I wish more people would actually listen to me.

-Quick's case on NPOM is OK, but I agree with the NPOM that the wagon on me was scummy as hell. So, the entire premise of this case doesn't ring that much for me (abandoning Blair scum read). Seemed more like town abandoning weak reads for something more substantial if you ask me. I also don't buy that moving a vote off someone means you're "townreading" them.

- LOL, r2r voting NPOM on a mediocre case now that my wagon fell apart.

Please kill this guy now, he is guaranteed scum.

- Everyone should stop saying "low hanging fruit." In fact, I'll say it's actively scummy to dismiss any cases on that point alone because it doesn't have a factual basis that can be countered. It's a subjective statement.

- And then votato votes NPOM to L-1 with no explanation and says "don't lynch yet"

HE IS SCUM

- r2r asks me my thoughts on the NPOM wagon. See above, I don't find it terribly convincing.

- I get vibes Quick is being played by votato's constant buddying to him.

Don't worry Nauci the more Quick fires at you it just makes you look more towny.

Well I don't like this...Do you think Quick is scum NPOM?

[VP Baltar]

NPOM -- I asked you if you think Quick is scum based on your comment to Nauci. Please answer that.

Quick -- We can agree to disagree. I thought your system makes some valid points, but overall I agree with your own assessment that it's subjective...and that's the problem. Meanwhile: lol r2r, amirite?

[VP Baltar]

Well I don't like this...Do you think Quick is scum NPOM?

No, just anti town town.

If he's just being anti-town, then why would that make Nauci look more town?

[VP Baltar]

But if he is town and is just playing anti-town, that doesn't mean anything about Nauci's alignment....

[VP Baltar]

Anyone have a hypothesis on why it was her?

I kind of get this question....but I also kind of hate it. To quote you, looks pretty LAMIST.

But then again, I agree that votato and r2r are still likely scum. Their votes were terrible yesterday, almost entirely across the board, but particularly on the NPOM wagon.

I also am not a fan of Blair's entry into that wagon when there were better candidates and she had told me she'd be willing to lunch r2r yesterday.

Dunn's hammer was also FoS. Felt like a very fast end to a day that was still likely to get some more replacements.

Gamma, even though Nauci is dead, I'll be her standard bearer and say you need to reply to her posts.

[VP Baltar]

@VP Baltar: where does Puppy’s LAMIST post compare with mine?

Yours is better as far as content, but my town read on puppy remains strong from yesterday.

Blair, how sure did you feel on your NPOM vote yesterday?

[VP Baltar]

Also, where is VP so far today? I really want his take on all this since he is a fairly stron Town Lean for me rn.

Sorry, I'm just now finishing a 12+ hour day at work. I've been trying to periodically skim along on my phone when I can, but things have been moving too fast for me to stay on it well enough. I'll be catching up tomorrow in a real way (work allowing).

My initial thoughts are that the flip made me still feel good about my r2r scum read. I'm more skeptical of Blair now (like why is she acknowledging r2r is prob scum and then pivoting to a Gamma case...huh?) and I'm less certain of votato scum.

Everything subject to change when I have a chance to read closely, of course.

[VP Baltar]

Yesterday she did

[VP Baltar]

like why is she acknowledging r2r is prob scum and then pivoting to a Gamma case...huh?

There are really only two explanations:

1. Gamma is town; Blair is scum with Ready2Rock

2. Blair feels more confident in her Gamma read.

Occam's Razor might be prudent here.

I don't recall so much snark y'day, but ok


@quick - you saying the case on gamma is better for town today or that Blair might be scum on a go nowhere wagon? Or something else I'm not interpreting correctly?

[VP Baltar]

Starting from my post 865. I'm largely caught up now (roughly page 42 or so), and need to jet off to work. Here is where my head is at after a detailed reread of Day 2.

@gamma - if you think r2r had bad reasons for jumping on the NPOM wagon, what is your assessment of Dunn?

Blair's attempt at math for her Gamma vote doesn't even add up. She says it is possible 1 out of 4 people off the wagon is likely scum -- giving us a 25% chance from that pool. HOWEVER, if you were to assume it was a three scum game (which is fairly standard for this size setup unless meta around her has changed), that would mean you could have up to a 2 out of 7 chance of hitting scum on the wagon --- or roughly 28%. Any way you slice this, it doesn't feel statistically significant to me unless you assume only two scum in the game.

So either Blair is trying to make her vote seem more credible here than it really is, or she knows something we don't about how many scum are in the game. Either way, I don't like it.

--as I'm reading, I'm not liking Blair's dismissive tone to legitimate questions coming from me and others. For example, I asked her to inform me how confident she was yesterday on NPOM, and she said "you should have asked me that yesterday" and then answers. It's a way of salting the earth, imo. Like by saying the question is so stupid, it psychologically makes the answer irrelevant, or forces me to reply to the bad retort of 'why didn't you ask me yday'. hmm

--midway's entrance into the game is...underwhelming

Gamma + Puppy/Midway + Mavs/Atarashi/Quick

I don't see how one of r2r or votato are not on this list. Mavs and Quick have both also been very pro-town as far as I can tell. Gamma and Puppy as well to a lesser extent. You're telling me there is not one single obvious scum in this game? I'm very confused.

Saying Gamma is Scum for being right not being on the NPOM lynch is bad.

I agree with this. It's bad logic at best.

i propose that a good test of this would be lynching r2r. if r2r flips town then you have a case on gamma.

Also agree with this. WAS I WRONG ABOUT VOTATO????

For some reason, I had a scum read on VPB, but it seems like you guys think that is unrealistic

I'm game. Please go on record and elaborate why.

It is based on tone.

Oh, got it.

An excerpt from scum daychat in Quick's universe:

R2R

- This is great! Quick and Blair are drowning the thread in a fruitless debate!

VP

- Yeah, now would be a great time for me to bus you!

R2R

- Sure, we can put some distance between us! Just make sure you don't push it too hard, we don't want to steal the spotlight.

VP

- I was thinking I'd pound out some wallposts calling you a blatant liar and detailing all the scummy things you've done.

R2R

- Huh... yeah, I guess, if you think it's really necessary to put as much distance between us as possible. Just make sure you don't overshadow the Blair/Quick fight.

VP

- I was actually thinking I'd try my best to shut that whole fight down, actually, and push everybody to focus extra hard on how scummy you are.

R2R

- Okayyyy... but only for a little while, right? I mean, only NPOM is voting for me now so I should be pretty safe from a strong push as long as it's short-lived.

VP

- I figured I'd just keep pushing this non-stop until you're lynched! If you aren't lynched today I'll keep pushing it tomorrow, too!

R2R

- ... I hate you.

ok, actually lol'ed

Most people just whined about it and skipped most of our posts, and I still haven't made up my mind for sure on what that might mean. It was... off, somehow.

I'd actually appreciate if we dial this back a little bit. It's relatively distracting and almost certainly has contributed to the number of replacements. I say this selfishly as someone with a busy job and limited time to catch up when there are reams of pages to dissect. (I know that's whiny, sorry)

for some reason, I am townreading r2r
I also had the impression that Quick v Blair might have been theatre, so I appreciate Dunnstral mentioning it.

All your posts are terrible. Do better.

I wanted to flip NPOM because he was either scum or town who isn't scumhunting - but mostly I wanted to flip NPOM to sort Quick.

Wait...you said the first part when I asked you about your confidence in the NPOM vote, and then added the Quick read part to this answer. Why didn't you say that in response to my original question?


VOTE: Blair

Also scum:
r2r

Maybe scum?
midway
Dunn
votato (though I'm doubting myself hard on that now)

People who need to talk more:
Puppy
Atarashi replacement
midway for sure

Everyone else is at varying levels of town or null for me.

[VP Baltar]

1. Day 1 Blair was scumreading Quick

2. Blair observed Quick has an enormous ego and claims to follow a brilliant "scumhunting system" to the letter, regardless of alignment, that "definitely works"

3. Blair decided that Quick actually believed this.

4. Blair inferred that scum!Quick believed town!Quick would nail scum.

5. Blair concluded that if Quick is town, NPOM is a decent enough Day 1 lynch who might flip scum and was definitely anti-town, but if Quick was scum he was probably bussing because

brilliantly catching scum with great confidence

is what scum!Quick believed town!Quick would be doing.

6. Blair doesn't look a gift horse in the mouth and knows a win/win when she sees one, so she helps push the NPOM wagon.

This really does not make sense to me, particularly step 4. So you are saying he has a big ego, and therefore he would have to bus on day 1 if he was scum? If his ego was so big, wouldn't scum Quick think he could dupe the town into a mislynch?

[VP Baltar]

1. Day 1 I was open to an R2R lynch, and said as much multiple times.

2. Yes, I said I agreed that it appeared he had lied about the vote count. See #1.

3. The case was strong enough for early Day 1, but we have significantly more information now and R2R's defense was the exact defense I referenced on Day 1 (when I said I could only think of one possible excuse), so I'm not sure if it was really a lie.

What was r2r's reasoning that you bought?

[VP Baltar]

Look at me, not doing work and catching up actually

[VP Baltar]

Thank you for answering. And fair enough on the snark.

Regarding reanalyzing scum reads post flip, I asked you because I do think the case on r2r was better. The day really ended before I thought it would, so I don't think I did a good enough job persuading people to my side and documenting confidence in that wagon. I asked because even though we know the flip, I wanted your mindset explained.

Can you respond to my point about your math?

[VP Baltar]

No, I said "could have up to a 2 out of 7 chance". My point being that there are too many variables to be certain in your assessment. At best, you could say the scum placement possibilities are near equal in the wagon or off wagon groups. I think you either didn't think this through all the way, or are trying to bolster a weak argument by making it seem grounded in statistics.

[VP Baltar]

P-edit: I'll ISO him and find the quote from him, but basically when I initially looked into the vote count after you said he was lying, I started scrolling and saw "two votes," then realized one of them was actually in a quote block and thought "whoops, that's one vote, actually." I kept scrolling to make sure the quoted vote was current, and it was, but guessed that R2R probably didn't do that diligence. That ended up being his explanation, and since his explanation matched my (unstated) explanation, I'm inclined to believe it.

Looking back at this as well. He explained his reasoning in #547, which you say you believed.

But in post #570 you said this:

No, I think R2R lied about the vote count for some unknowable reason. I pretty plainly said I'd be okay with lynching him today if I can't have Quick.

you said he's still lying and that you'd be OK with lynching him. I don't believe you ever said yesterday that you believed his reason given. Am I missing something?

[VP Baltar]

HOWEVER, if you were to assume it was a three scum game (which is fairly standard for this size setup unless meta around her has changed), that would mean you could have up to a 2 out of 7 chance of hitting scum on the wagon --- or roughly 28%. Any way you slice this, it doesn't feel statistically significant to me unless you assume only two scum in the game.

I would contend your math is askew, not mine.

Starting from the base assumption of this discussion (not all scum are on the wagon), and the reasonable inverse (not all scum are off the wagon) we are left with at least one scum in seven and at least one scum in four. Then, if there is a third scum, the third scum has a 2/3 chance of being on the wagon, or a 1/3 chance of being off.

Doesn't that still add up to "We have better odds off the wagon than on it"?

So by that, shouldn't the 1/3 be priority????

I think my point is that you can't actually know the distribution unless you know more than me.

[VP Baltar]

So by that, shouldn't the 1/3 be priority????

I have no idea what this means.

Is it possible you don't understand the math? Not trying to be condescending, it can legitimately be confusing.

The 1/3 is a 1/3 chance that there are two scum among four. The 2/3 is a 2/3 chance that there are two scum among seven.

OK, the error was mine in understanding. I see what you're saying now.

So you think it's a reasonable assumption there are only two scum in the game?

[VP Baltar]

R2R is less scummy because the case on R2R appears to be "He blatantly lied about checking the vote count, for no discernible reason, when he could have just kept his yap shut." I don't find that very persuasive.

Literally all of his votes have been opportunistic and lacking original reasoning as well.

The case has built over time, and the flip did him no favors

[VP Baltar]

VP Baltar, you never gave your final thoughts on my Gamma case, after we ironed out all the details.

Thoughts?

The case seems to come down to you thinking his reasons for voting NPOM weren't good enough, and a process of elimination.

As someone who didn't believe in the NPOM wagon either, I'm not convinced that is indicative of alignment, though it is certainly possible scum could have avoided the wagon. I will go back and re-read his move off the wagon to see if what you're saying feels convincing, but right now I have him more on the null side...and it certainly doesn't read to me like a better case than dealing with r2r, or even some of the questionable thinking I'm seeing from you atm.

[VP Baltar]

Is there reasoning beyond that I've missed?

[VP Baltar]

The case seems to come down to you thinking his reasons for voting NPOM weren't good enough, and a process of elimination.

*Not voting NPOM.

Phone posting and such

[VP Baltar]

Is there reasoning beyond that I've missed?

I'm trying to avoid hiring a skywriter here.

Yeah, that's the basic premise.

If there is more nuance, I want to hear it.

P.edit: yo, hellbrooks, welcome.

[VP Baltar]

Blair, at what point did you reconsider your view of r2r's comment I made my original case on? Also, what do you think of his votes and contribution to this game?

[VP Baltar]

Alright, now we have some excitement!

[VP Baltar]

Someone tell me if traffic analyst is a standard kind of role? I have not played in years and do not know what is considered a "normal" role.

unvote

[VP Baltar]

a very small part of me is tempted to say that we should not lynch blair or gammagooey and just let gamma live until n3 so he can shoot blair if he can

but, meh, can't outsmart the counter claims i think

What in the world?

[VP Baltar]

Someone tell me if traffic analyst is a standard kind of role? I have not played in years and do not know what is considered a "normal" role.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

So basically anything just not roles that involve elements of chance.

Blair is more believable here and one of them has to go.

VOTE: gamma L-1 I believe

[VP Baltar]

Wtf

[VP Baltar]

God damnit. Votato, did you see my vote in pedit when you posted.

[VP Baltar]

God damnit. Votato, did you see my vote in pedit when you posted.

Yours is actually Scummier because of self hammer.

I figured he wasn't around given he seems to go long periods of time without posting. I wanted to put L-1 and see if another scum would come in for the hammer.

[VP Baltar]

Looking back on Gamma's play, it makes me think it's possible r2r was a bus target for him. Gamma followed me onto the r2r wagon but never really pushed it that hard. Perhaps he thought my cause was a slam dunk and felt he needed to get on it early.

Then he votes r2r again on day 2, for slightly vague reasons and again doesn't push it that hard to get a wagon going. I think what bugs me about this interaction is that he's never badgering people to get on the wagon. Instead, he answers some people's questions about his own vote and lets it be before being outted as scum by Blair.

Alternatively, maybe he just saw r2r as a weak target and a good way to buddy up to me if he ever got in trouble.

He also gives a pretty strong town read of votato, again without a lot of reasoning during the game.

midwaybear

needs to contribute to the game in a real way. I'm having a hard time reading that slot at this point, and we can't afford coasting.

puppy

- why were you posting about irrelevant things yesterday after there was clearly a claim dispute happening between Blair and Gamma? Like, explain to me how you did not see your posts were coming up amid the claims?

ok, i'm all caught up, i didn't see the stuff about roles and claims until the end

not sure there's much i can add, one of blair/gamma is scum, i've been townreading blair most of the game and will probably side that way

I didn't care for the "I'm caught up" with no substantial interest in talking about the claim.

votato,

still want you to answer if my P-edit came up when you voted. I know we seem to have the same time stamp, but mine clearly came first. So wondering if you saw it.

[VP Baltar]

main scumread is on VPB
lots of his early posts were noncommittal and it seemed like he was trying to get in everyone's good graces
townreads on Dunn and a slight tl on quick
pedit: im fine with mavs wagon. I know I tonread him as town yesterday but that was sorta bs

shouldn't your vote be on me if I'm your top scum read? What changed between this post and your mavs vote?

[VP Baltar]

5)this is midway's scum meta

Specific games?

[VP Baltar]

More or less where I am with flips and subtracting myself...

Hellbooks
VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

Where's midway on this list?

(And definitely burrito jealous)

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: votato

i think this makes the most sense, i still buy my d1 case that votato was phoning in the scumhunting a little bit and i don't like his interactions with blair

not 100% on this, but i want to mark this down before we end up in a midway/mavs thunderdome i'm not sure i agree with

Why votato over quick?

Also, didn't you say you could see a midway/Mavs pairing? If so, wouldn't running those dueling wagons be like an ideal world for you?

[VP Baltar]

Oh, well Votato started with Gamma neutral, moved to town and started going against Blair when she was pushing for Gamma before her claim, then turned against Gamma fast after the claim

That's about the extent of Votato's interactions with Gamma, but he also pushes numerous alternative wagons and keeps trying to make something work while Gamma is being wagoned

I'll admit because I'm biased here and misread Blair's Gamma case as coming from scum with inside info, when her inside info was actually town PR. So votato's switch here doesn't feel scummy to me because it mirrors my own.

When you say he was pushing alternative wagons during the claim, what do you mean?

[VP Baltar]

You don't understand, usually by now Blair has the class settled down and school is in session. You'll see I guess, or maybe not, don't want to poison the well here, (Sorry Blair!)

So you're saying in your past experience, Blair would be serious out of the gates? Want to make sure I'm interpreting correctly

This post reads like VPB is trying to shade Blair while also not trying to look too obvious about it.

your post style is also rather different. you are usually an analytical player with long wallposts. here you are asking questions and pressing people.

So you find him less aggressive this game? Mind linking the games you read? I'd like to take a look myself.

Once again VPB egging on the idea that a player is suspicious just because they might be a little off from their normal town meta. This logic ultimately is bad because Blair flipped town, and while I'm still iffy about atarashi/hellbooks what VPB did in both of those scenarios looks pretty scummy.

Asking questions is trying to shade Blair? I thought it was how the game was played when you are trying to gather information...

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: hellbrooks

I'll help you out.

[VP Baltar]

i guess so. nobody else was really doing that though, so it just gave me a weird feeling

Nobody else was asking questions to figure out motivations and intent? I disagree.

[VP Baltar]

Also, I'm scumreading mavsfan at this point. there's a particular reactiveness feel to his presence, maybe I'm getting the sense he's comfortable to appear rational while not doing much. would be interested to see what other people have picked up here. he's perfectly situated in the "danger zone".

Can you point me to some examples that struck you on reading the game of why you think he is not doing much?

[VP Baltar]

unvote

This I flat out don't like, really comes off as trying to prod your buddy to strengthen their case while trying to come across as being skeptical of it.

Seems like he could just do this in a private thread if the scum have day talk, couldn't he?

Am I wrong in assuming there should be some sort of protective role with a Strongman? Not sure why Blair wasn't protected unless all we have is a JK.

This is actually a good point. Did not think of that.

new question to you, midway. You seem pretty new to mafia, so please explain to me when you started to focus on "tonereads" as you call them. You've mentioned it 8 times or so in the few posts you've had and it got me curious what is your logic behind this and when did you decide to make that part of your scumhunting?

[VP Baltar]

Idk to be honest because I heard tonereads are generally unreliable. There's not really any logic, but it's more like:does this sound more townie or scummy? I toneread Quick once and I'm happy about that. It's not how I mainly try to scumhunt though.

I guess I just noticed you mentioned it alot. And when I looked back at some of your games, I didn't see you talk about it nearly as much (though you briefly mentioned it as either alignment.)

Have you successfully read Quick as either alignment or only as town?

Also, you've never played with me, and yet you're applying this tone read approach to me. How is that reliable?

[VP Baltar]

Keep in mind this is midways like less than 10th Forum Mafia game IIRC. So it's natural he has no idea what he is doing.

10 games is an alright amount to know how this works. Certainly not expert level, but not a noob who hasn't thought about the game before.

Clearly his play is evolving (said so himself), but the tone stuff honestly strikes me as either lazy town or vague scum positions that can be adjusted as needed if the tone of the target seemingly improves.

What do you think about the way he is buddying you quick?

[VP Baltar]

Haven't noticed tbh.

I will take that as a compliment either way. Thanks

[VP Baltar]

Haven't noticed tbh.

I will take that as a compliment either way. Thanks

What does that actually tell you alignment wise?

It tells me midway is not seriously considering you as a possibility for scum, and if I'm being fully skeptical-- seems like he doesn't want to get cross with you. Motivations behind that, I'm not as clear at this point.

[VP Baltar]

Quick is null town so far. Quick's style is sorta unreadable, and I don't think I can really read him based off of tone or contribution. I feel like he posts generally the same stuff as scum and town. Overall, his thoughts read pretty natural and I can follow what he is thinking(most of the time). Thus, null town read.

I went back to look at your read on him, and I just find this very confusing upon reread. If he posts the same as town or scum, as you say, you're basically saying you can't read him (which is a weird premise to begin with, but ok)...and then you say he is more on the town side.

I don't get how you arrive at that if you say you're having a hard time reading his motivation?

We have had a couple town flips and a scum flip. I think it is time to reevaluate basically everyone in the game. There's no need for us to wait until LyLo

[VP Baltar]

I think at the time I "outed the cop" (pretty blatantly, I would add) that mafia probably was way ahead of me with that. I literally didn't know Blair was Cop until I mentioned it. Then I literally guessed (which meant to be general and not specific post number) what post it was.

I've been thinking about this a lot. Mostly because I was also sensing something off about her Gamma case at that point in the day. It felt incomplete because she was drawing on action info that wasn't visible to the rest of us. The problem was, I started to find this scummy, whereas you found it to be from a town PR.

Can you explain why you didnt join the Gamma wagon at the point you realized she was a cop (of sorts)? Why did you feel it necessary to push all of it into the open?

[VP Baltar]

Can you explain why you didnt join the Gamma wagon at the point you realized she was a cop (of sorts)? Why did you feel it necessary to push all of it into the open?

I did join the Gamma wagon. I clearly said, "I will side with Blair" but I was hoping there would be more time in the day for me to analyze stuff based on what Gamma was going to say, but then they got hammered. I wasn't the one wanting to end the day prematurely, that was you and to a lesser extent, votato.

Meh get out of here with that noise. I'll admit my gambit on the vote goofed. I certainly wasn't expecting a simulpost. It was a risk on my part, and it did not pay off.

Perhaps my question wasn't clear because you didn't actually answer it. If you were reading her as a cop, why not try to force the gamma wagon without outing her? It's certainly possible scum picked up on the claim as you say, but it's also possible they didn't. You've been a persuasive force in this game, so why not try to use that and keep her undercover, even if there was a risk of a NK?

[VP Baltar]

If you were reading her as a cop, why not try to force the gamma wagon without outing her?

Probably because, like I have said a million times already, Scum was already probably 3-4 steps ahead of me. If I can pick up that Blair is cop and I am normally PR blind (which I am, but I do have a special ability of finding VT) then it's pretty obvious Scum already knew Blair was cop pages and pages ago. I didn't actually do any harm as far as I can see. Besides, what Scum motive is there for outing the cop as Scum?

There absolutely is incentive to talk about PRs as scum. It gives a scum team more information to go off to fish them out the more people talk about.

Perhaps you disagree as a town philosophy, but that's generally how I think. The mafia team already has more info, so why give them anymore?

[VP Baltar]

Quick's avoidance of actually explaining why his strategy in that situation is better than what I presented is noted. I haven't said one word about PRs as far as I know, especially pre-Blair claim.

There's also this:

a very small part of me is tempted to say that we should not lynch blair or gammagooey and just let gamma live until n3 so he can shoot blair if he can

but, meh, can't outsmart the counter claims i think

What in the world?

Actually, not a terrible idea because Blair, theoretically, should be dead by D3.

Which doesn't make a lot of sense to me if you believe her claim at that point.

Downside is we don't have a lot to work off of Quick's response to the claim he forced because I messed up.

Perhaps there may be times when that's true, but in this case I very much disagree. At a point when people weren't sure whether or not to trust Blair and the Gamma wagon was kind of keeping stagnant, outing the PR only served to strengthen her case, make people trust her, and get gamma lynched. At that point in the day, there was every incentive to keep that speculation amongst themselves, if they even had any (which, given gamma's weak claim, I'm not even sure they did)

My point is that Quick likely had the influence to move that wagon forward if he suspected there was legitimacy to it -- and he could have done so without forcing a claim. The weakness in this argument is that it's a bit of Monday morning quarterbacking. Perhaps he wouldn't have actually been able to influence that. However, his chosen route certainly is what led to the claim. That much is indisputable. Blair certainly found this suspicious and said as much.

[VP Baltar]

I am not sold entirely on this Mavs wagon btw. I'd like a little more day

[VP Baltar]

I'd prefer someone unvote Mavs so we can have more time.

[VP Baltar]

Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

I'm scum now? I was no.2 on this list before. Color me confused beyond asking you legitimate questions.

[VP Baltar]

Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

I'm scum now? I was no.2 on this list before. Color me confused beyond asking you legitimate questions.

Your fake confusion is bs. Pretty sure I have talked about having conflicting reads based on different methods of approach.

I'm 100% fine with conflicting reads. I'm definitely feeling that after some misreads in this game. What I am pointing out is your reaction to being questioned is calling your questioner scum rather than just answering the question. I don't see the value in that.

I think there is value in testing our own assumptions, hence why I wanted to ask you to explain your thought process around the claim after feeling reasonably good about you for much of the game. Immediately OMGUSing me because of that ain't a good look.

Claim noted, waiting for votato response

[VP Baltar]

Let's wait for votato to explain his position. We shouldn't speculate and offer possible reasons

Pedit: what hellbrooks said

[VP Baltar]

why are we even assuming there is a fruit checker. I did not recieve fruit

I like you, but you're crazy

[VP Baltar]

Y'all can lynch me, but not until I say what I have to say. How does that sound? Then once I am dead you can see I was right. How does that sound Midway? Also, it's not D1 anymore, it's D3.

pcoket attempt:denied
idk if i will trust the same tonerads

Bro, you are Town... hellbooks is Town based on that unvote. Dunn is Town based on Non-Associative with Gamma and R2R is Town based on TWO Non-Associatives with Gamma. You do the math, who does that leave? VP is just Scum based on this:

Hi, stop blowing up my spot. I do not want to get NKed

This was to puppy

Which is a soft. And if we look here:

@VP, how do we know you are not pushing miss lynch bait?

I don't even know Miss Lynch...

I kid, I kid.

I think votato is what many might call a "wedge issue." I'm not much of a fan of the poor logic or "fuck you" reaction to being questioned. It feels like inexperienced scum to me ... which is low hanging fruit, but the delicious kind. That being said, I can see people reading that as town or scum...hence why I'm trying to get people on the record on votato. At the very least, I think this conversation will be fruitful for town later. (Much more so than the 'everyone have a single vote on your favorite scum' status we were at in the last vote count.)

We can see Scum wanted to use the idea of a fruit vender all along. Unlucky for VP is that mav had to use it and not VP. Otherwise this was Scum't play all along unless mav actually softed at some point. Will be interesting to see if they had...

Your case hinges on me using the word fruitful. That's hilarious.

Perhaps I just have a vocabulary. Either way, we aren't doing anything until votato speaks

[VP Baltar]

There's also this later on

- Everyone should stop saying "low hanging fruit." In fact, I'll say it's actively scummy to dismiss any cases on that point alone because it doesn't have a factual basis that can be countered. It's a subjective statement.

Question is there's a lot of noise at this point in the game, is this a signal or are we stretching here?

People literally said low hanging fruit multiple times in their "cases" against me. Unless you're saying I hypnotized them into saying it so I could respond as a soft claim...which is .... Ok then

[VP Baltar]

me and dunn are basically conf town
i don't think votato's claim really matters
I don't get the second quote string?

How are you confirmed town without someone to third party confirm you don't have fruit?

[VP Baltar]

me and dunn are basically conf town
i don't think votato's claim really matters
I don't get the second quote string?

How are you confirmed town without someone to third party confirm you don't have fruit?

[VP Baltar]

theres also really no need to kill the slot since its potentially verifiable.

Huh? Am I missing something?

[VP Baltar]

theres also really no need to kill the slot since its potentially verifiable.

Huh? Am I missing something?

They said Watcher or Voyeur

I disagree, I think any more town investigatives would be too many town investigatives

Well if it's fake maybe not?

I'm not really inclined to believe it is fake though, so that makes sense

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: Quick

I'm inclined to believe Mavs here. The claim is too detailed and breadcrumbed to be scum I think. He also reads genuine to me when he admits he messed up the role and made a bad assumption about how it worked.

Meanwhile, quick's behavior today has been quite telling. His unwillingness to answer questions around the Blair claim (particularly since he is now claiming he picked up on the investigation sooner than most of us but didn't vote Gamma or try to keep it under wraps), and now his efforts around the mavs claim to get a town mass claim (on day 2, ok what?) don't make a lot of sense as town.

He also absurdly tries to paint me as in on some elaborate fake claim plan by going to my iso and Ctrl+fing for the word "fruit" and saying I'm soft claiming because that happened to be there.... Which is probably the most contrived thing I've read in a long time.

[VP Baltar]

yeah without claiming the disloyal part there was some utility in the role even after claiming. now the role is completely useless. mav is a good player right? theres no chance that he would mess up like that?

Anyone can mess up. This is bad logic.

[VP Baltar]

Here is an exercise that I did yesterday and I think is worthwhile everyone doing: Pull back to a 30,000 foot view and try to sum up what Quick has done to actually help town in this game. What actions has he taken that have had a net positive outcome?

When I did this and set aside the fine level detail of being a very active poster (which I think many of us have gotten town vibes off of, but upon closer view may not be a meta tell at all), I had a very hard time coming up with a good list.

A lot of town negatives came to mind though:

-Quick helped push an NPOM mislynch.
-He's outted power roles and role fished, all while trying to pretend those are pro town.
-He has offered lots of absolutist opinions that he claims are unquestionable because of The System (votato and VPB must be a scum source because of a simulpost!), all while proving very little with said system (see NPOM mislynch above, missing Gamma scum, and now inexplicably sticking with what could be a Mavs mislynch).
-Promises that if we just keep him around to late game, he will deliver scum on a silver platter.
-The weird "go ahead and lynch me then!" when there weren't even any votes on him.

A pairing of Quick/Gamma isn't outside the realm of possibility and I'm having less and less of a good feeling about him . I'd like other players to consider the above thought experiment and try to see how they think Quick has actually helped town after several days of play and results.

[VP Baltar]

You're acting in bad faith. Plus, does lack of Town utility actually = Scum or is this just an excuse to get votes on me?

How am I acting in bad faith? All of those things are very clearly true.

My case is that you have actually done things to hurt town, and are a possible alignment to Gamma...I think there is a decent chance you are scum, and yes people should vote for you. It is certainly a better move for us than lynching Mavs when his claim is far too detailed to likely be fake.

[VP Baltar]

Also, it's quite funny to hear you say I'm acting in bad faith when you're making up outlandish theories about how me using the word fruitful means I'm probably scum with Mavs.

[VP Baltar]

Bad faith = painting me solely in a negative light. Hence, it's either confbias or you are Scum because there is zero nuance to your read on me.

I don't agree. I think I've actually seen you in a quite favorable light for most of the game, and given you the benefit of the doubt many times, even when I found your reasoning lacking.

That being said, I never give anyone a free pass, and when I started looking wholesale at what you've done this game, I did not see a lot of positives. I also think you've responded very poorly to what I initiated as a genuinely open minded questioning of your reasons for outting Blair.

If I'm off base, then make the case of how you've benefited town and had town goals in mind. Painting any questioning of your motives as inherently scummy is something I don't find persuasive.

Mostly though, I would like to hear from others (especially those on the Mavs wagon).

[VP Baltar]

You have not countered anything I've said, so how am I misrepping you? What is the specific nuance I'm missing in what I've said?

These are very vague defenses to pretty specific points. Even now, I'm open to hearing what you have to say. I don't claim to be perfect. But you need to actually offer something more than "poor me, I'm being maligned" if you want to convince me.

Given I haven't given up the ghost yet, what are you going to do if you can't get my lynched?

Considering no one but us has talked about this, I think this is a premature hypothetical.

This is the equivalent of me saying, what are you going to do if you lynch Mavs and he flips town?

[VP Baltar]

I have very clearly explained why I think the mav case is bad. His claim is far too specific and breadcrumbed to be coming from a scum on the fly pushed to L-1. Now, is it possible he planned all this? Sure. But I find that is way more complicated than scum usually are.

To quote you: Time will tell.

In terms of why I wouldn't push votato, I said earlier that I was finding him more town...and the simulpost doesn't mean a lot to me. I know I'm town and what my intentions were there. It was a freak thing he posted at the same time. Doesn't mean he is clear of anything, but it also doesn't guarantee there is a scum there. That's just faulty logic.

And saying my case against you is D1 level is BS. I'm looking at the totality of your actions from day 1 to now. That is exactly the type of case that should be made if you want to holistically catch scum.

Your case on Mavs amounts to "I don't believe his claim" and "his voting record isn't great". Well the first part of that is subjective and the second part...well you are one to talk. So if you think that case is a better quality than what I've made against you, that's cool. Eager to see where the rest of the people come down on that comparison.

[VP Baltar]

Let's give it a shot...

VOTE: VP

I would normally have to make a GOOD case for a player like this, but we will see how this fairs us...

Big surprise. Thought you were certain on Mavs and flipping him would be indicative of my alignment?

And I will address your other longer post when I'm not at work and on my phone.

But there are definitely some doubts on my end

I should say i'm leaning about 80% believing the claim in its entirety though
it's a pretty intricate lie if it is one. But i've seen fake claims that elaborate before.

Thoughts on Quick?

[VP Baltar]

how is that a soft?!

Agreed.


Midway, thoughts on the quick case I made?

[VP Baltar]

I don't see my play as Anti-Town as much as it is that I grate on people and they don't like me or my playstyle. I'll try and cool my jets, but I actually play this game to win.

i think this post and others like it make quick seem a little townier, though. What do you think VP?

I get it. I've faced the same criticism in the past, so if he is town, that's understandable. That being said, I don't think my case is so much about his tone or even his questioning of me (which I expect town to do and welcome questions). My case is more about the sum of his game benefiting scum, and the mavs case being the latest in that line. I'm looking at totality of play and trying to find people who 1) fit with gamma 2) don't have town's best interests in mind.

Quick might just be really anti town. I have not rules that out. I do think actual pressure there is warranted, and the case against him is better than a push to get rid of mavs

[VP Baltar]

ye i'm liking quick too much either

Sorry, not sure if there is a typo here or not. You are liking him or not too much?

[VP Baltar]

1) fit

2) best interests

Could you unpack what you mean by this and how I am doing/not doing that?

Sure, fit is about who most logically fit as scum with gamma. I can't really eliminate you from that pool given the outing of Blair and the weird agreement with Puppy when they said maybe we shouldn't even lynch Blair or Gamma yesterday. If you had come out hard at gamma immediately because you believed Blair copped him, I'd be like "quick seems very townie for that"

Best interests of the town is about pushing the town toward making the right lynches. Ive outlined already why I don't think you've done that. Do you feel like your play this game has been highly beneficial to town in that sense?

Additionally the role fishing stuff is just bad. Like, you said everyone should mass claim, and even if that were true (it's not), you didn't offer any ideas about how that should play out or the order it should be done to best benefit town. Instead, you just claimed and encouraged others to follow. You don't honestly see that as beneficial to town do you?

[VP Baltar]

I can't shake the feeling that there's a mislynch agenda behind VP Baltar's case
I dont have any thing I can point to for that but, wondering if theres something anyone else has on that.

Uh...

[VP Baltar]

Alright, off work and going to go back over the last few pages to respond to anything I missed. (and then I'm going to dial back my posting for a hot minute so we can hear from other people who have given fewer opinions today. I'm afraid I've probably contributed to people not posting by jumping up the page count.)

I think it's possible that both myself and mav are town fwiw. Also the association between us is based on me not picking up on a crumb, so while you could argue that my flip gives info on mav, his flip really says nothing about me. I really want to believe that mav is town, but i have a hard time swallowing the claim and the way it was done. And while i would buy a voyeur or watcher, i wouldn't buy a fruit checker

Circling back on this, now that you've had some time to think about the claim, you still think it's fake?

It is important since you said you never talked about PRs in the game and you had.. about yourself.. with a really obvious soft... because you know you are never getting NKed... I think that's all.

I think we are talking about two different things here. When I said talking about PRs, I meant talking about other people's roles. Regardless, I will say I was absolutely not breadcrumbing anything about my role in the posts you mentioned, and you can hold me to that in the future. That being said, if you're interpreting those posts as breadcrumbing, I can see why you think that's a violation of me saying I haven't talked about PRs. I really wasn't though.

Bad faith = painting me solely in a negative light. Hence, it's either confbias or you are Scum because there is zero nuance to your read on me.

I want to revisit this because I think we got in a pretty heated back and forth there. I really don't think I'm trying to act in bad faith toward you, and I'm not trying to cherry pick.

I would say up front that until today, I was strongly in the Quick is town column, and I think that's been fairly clear for most of the game. I think I at least played a moderate role in breaking up you and Blair fighting forever because I believed it was TvT. Hell, I could be completely wrong and you could be town. I'm willing to accept that. That being said, you have to admit that you have done things that have not helped the town here. I mean, I'm not being crazy when I say things like the wagons you've been on or suggesting an early mass claim look suspicious, am I?

You said I don't have a nuanced view, but that's actually what I'm after when I ask you questions like: "please explain to me why outting Blair as cop was a better strategy than trying to push the Gamma lynch and keep her undercover, even if you think scum may have caught on too"

Also, it does seem like if I were you and I was Town I would be trying to lynch votato and not me because honestly, what is votato hanging on to that makes them Town in your eyes? That ofc gets upset when I say things like, "There is one Scum in votato/VP." So you are really painting yourself in a corner either way. If I were you and I was Scum, I would really, honestly, be trying to lynch mav at this point given he is Town. But you are barely looking at mav. What gives? Is mav Town? Based on what? Will you even answer these questions? Time will tell.

While votato has been a bit out there at times, he's also asked good questions this game and has pressed people (including me) in ways that are not making him always popular. I identify with that style of play being town. It's how I play as town for sure. I'd rather ask good questions and take the risk of drawing a wagon, than to play safe. That makes votato more of a town read for me.

As far as why wouldn't I pursue mavs if I was scum...I agree with you. He would make sense to bus if he was my scum buddy, as you say. And if he was town and I was scum, it'd be an easy mislynch. It's certainly not a popular position for me to intervene here on his behalf. I just don't believe it is a good lynch from what I can tell. I've seen mavs trying all game to root out scum, and he claim has sealed him as very likely town for me.

But I find that is way more complicated than scum usually are.

Would you mind offering your comment on this:

This progression from mav is wacky - especially if mav is SvS with Gamma... Not seeing that clear analytical process from mav here... looks more like panic.

...

Your case on Mavs amounts to "I don't believe his claim" and "his voting record isn't great". Well the first part of that is subjective and the second part...well you are one to talk. So if you think that case is a better quality than what I've made against you, that's cool. Eager to see where the rest of the people come down on that comparison.

There's more to it than that, surely!

Regarding mavs logical progression there, you'd have to ask him to explain in detail. I can see more what you're saying now if you're implying the r2r vote by Gamma was a signal that mavs was following. Didn't you also have your vote on r2r after Gamma made his case? Seems like it would be null to you from that perspective...but I see what you're pointing to anyhow.

Regarding the rest of the case on mavs, please give me the cliff notes version you see. I would like to hear it summed up in one place from your perspective.

is there any reason to think puppy is town? He's lurking at a critical moment.

^This i support. I don't know if it's lurking or just falling behind, but I definitely want some more concrete catch up from puppy.

something like

dunnstral, votato, midwaybear
mavs, ready2rock
quick, vp baltar
puppy

in terms of how much scrutiny I think they ought to be given

I actually don't get this list the more I'm thinking about it. You seemed pretty interested in a mavs lynch before and then helped run him up (I think your vote is still there actually), but he is fourth town on your list. You've also said pressure was due on quick, but that I'm trying to mislynch him.

What is your case on puppy being a top priority other than lurking?

why mass claim in the first place?

So we can Scum hunt.

In all seriousness.. I am not really sure how many more claims are even out there. We could hold off another day, but waiting until LyLo for mass claim is dangerous af.

Plus, it's pretty much essential that mav claims there as Scum and expecting anything other than something that can't be confirmed is suicide for Scum. Honestly, I would probably have claimed Doc there and seen where that would take me. Doc is almost always a good claim as Scum. But like I have said, I leave the fancy claims to my betters. I just as soon Scum hunt as Scum then try and pull something out of my ass.

It is weird because in retrospect, mav would be way better off claiming VT there as Scum I think. But then that eliminates a ton of WIFOM surrounding their claim and what to make of it and waste literally 2 weeks of your life trying to decide if it's actually viable or not. Fuck that. Ignore claims entirely and just get reads based on play. Anyone who knows the roles well enough and has a bit of time can fabricate a claim that is believable. That said, it takes all the finesse out of the game. You're lying to save your ass. All you have to do is be consistent. Pretty easy actually. That said, I have never been one who has been good at making up claims. I think I claimed Doc once when I replaced into a huge game late in it. Super easy! Just claim Doc! And if Doc doesn't work, you have a really good chance at outing another PR that would contradict the Doc claim. So it's really win/win.

In any case, IDK why votato and hellbooks are so sold on mav's claim being legit. I don't really buy it, but maybe I suck with all this claiming stuff. If it was just me making the decision, mav got put to L-1 with intent for a reason. let's read them based on their play and not based on the WIFOM of whether their claim is legit or not.

BTW, I can buy that the newbies would totally think, "No way they ever claim that as Scum here" but I think, as a general rule, the wackier the claim, the more likely it is to come from Scum.

And I'm still podering that R2R case VP made. Something doesn't feel quite right about it but I would probably have to go back and look. I think I made the comment at one point (possibly D1, not sure) that maybed R2R just has a Scummy meta. Still, their content hasn't been bad and they are still offering new thoughts so my TR on them just gets more solidified.

I will have to ISO hellbooks given I make it past this phase and we are both still alive next Day Phase. I have liked their content, but honestly, them TRing me based on me talking about how I know I grate on people doesn't seem like a LEGITIMATE reason to TR me. I can get it if there is like... politics involved and they just want to manipulate me to be nicer to people and not be a prick, but that's honestly a garbage reason to legit TR someone unless it's based on tone or something like that. Nothing about what I said should really turn heads in their read on me.

Puppy is no where so that slot probably needs pressure next Day Phase. I don't want to see Scum coast to victory. That's why if VP is Scum here, I actually respect his play quite a bit. mav to to some extent because that may not be the easiest fake claim to make. Maybe Puppy is bored with this game? I would like their thoughts sometime soonish. We still have plenty of time to decide who we want to lynch.

My top choice for lynch is mav, followed by VP, followed by a tie between hellbooks and Puppy. That is where I think the last two Scum are. I am not seeing votato!Scum or midway!Scum much at all, but if they fool me here congrats to them.

See, then you got to go make a post like this that actually reads like genuine town to me.

Which is another huge WTF moment. Why put Gamma at L-1 to self hammer when they were RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE of taking looks at Puppy. I do NOT understand dropping that like a hot potato (no pun intended @votato). It makes all three of mav/puppy/VP look SUPER suspect at how this all went down.

I sorta kinda feel like VP is traitor in this game. I had 3p feels early with the softening and all, but it could actually be traitor here. Didn't mention it because it was just gut, but the thought kept recurring so I am bringing it up now to say it's possible VP is traitor here.

Okay, so I think I'm fine with putting mav/Puppy/VP in my Scum pool for the remaining Scum. Read pending on hellbooks, but they honestly seem like they are NOT just skating by.

I fully believed Blair's claim as real and wanted to quickly put a vote there while I thought Gamma was away and it would be tempting for a fellow scum to start sweating and want to hammer. I had no intention of keeping it there for long if I didn't get a quick response. It was an overly risky play that I hoped could catch a second scum and be HERO level town in my first game back. I got screwed by a simulpost and that's what I get for being too bold. That's not being a traitor, just being an idiot.

mavs also (erroneously?) thinking that there is some sort of "fruit checker" also seems like it makes the claim more believable. you're not wrong about wacky claims coming from scum. Again, i'm not fully sold. I might go back and scrutinize

You really need to take a concrete position on this. Do you believe he is town or not?

[VP Baltar]

I remember myself saying 80/20 on accepting the claim. I believe i'm giving you a pretty strong belief there. What about you?

I think I've been pretty clear about my position on the Mavs wagon -- I find his claim to be pretty credible, mostly due to the complexity of it if he is scum. That's very hard to pull off. I do think I missed your unvote then, which is partly why I was confused.

[VP Baltar]

I can't shake the feeling that there's a mislynch agenda behind VP Baltar's case
I dont have any thing I can point to for that but, wondering if theres something anyone else has on that.

Uh...

I understand that feelings aren't the most conducive to logical argument, but they ought not to be shunted to the wayside, no? I hope you can accept it for what it is, because it is just that, a feeling.

My issue is less with the feeling than the appealing to other people to fill in the gaps for you.

[VP Baltar]

i am going further down this rabbit hole than i meant to at first, apologies. Here's the rub. imagine, for a moment, that scum has a fruit vendor, and that's how mav's claim is so plausible. does that change what ur thinking at all? entertain this idea for a moment. would it change ur opinion of mavs to consider scum with a fruit vendor? or, if we accept that fruit vendor could be town and scum, and so drop mavs' claim for the moment, could u see him as scum?

I mean, yeah, if that is your premise, that seems more plausible...but that seems far out there doesn't it? It's like a fake role for scum. Also, if he knew from the start he was a fake vendor, wouldn't his handling of the claim have been better and appeared more pro town?

[VP Baltar]

@r2r and hellbrooks - who do you actually want to vote out today? We need some stronger opinions from you. Particularly hellbrooks. I totally get the claim changing reads or needing to reconsider, but I see a lot of "well it could be X....or it could also be Y"...which isn't super helpful in trying to read you.

@Puppy - if the mavs lynch doesn't happen today, what do you think is the best compromise? Can you sum up the votato case for me?

@Quick - if one of votato/VP are scum, why have I been the primary focus of that logic? I don't mind that really, just curious why if that's a pretty even split, I'm fielding most of the investigative questions. Additionally, can you tell me how your thoughts would change on the list if mavs flips town? You don't need to do a full reads list like your last one, but I'm interested in how that alignment generally changes your read of the game, if true.

@mavsfan -- What do you think is the best lynch today in terms of both catching scum and revealing information to town?

[VP Baltar]

Apparently I have a lot of catching up to do. I'll address things in this post as I read them:

So... if we lynch mavs, then we are going to have to be pretty damn sure they are Scum here because their flip tells us VERY little either way. That said, I would not put it past you to ask this question of me if you already know the answer. After all, if you are Scum with mavs, then asking this question helps mav not get lynched (potentially).

That is why I originally wanted to flip you based on how you would change the game on your flip. Because you are actually the highest info lynch in the game rn and your red flip basically solves the game for us.

Follow up question: Do you think it's more important we catch scum today or we attempt to clear players through your system? I'm personally of the mindset that catching scum is the top priority every day, even if you don't always get enough connections -- mostly because I think the extra time you buy catching scum means you're more likely to solve the game before the end. But you may me of a different mindset.

I don't have much at the moment, which I why I need to have a reread. Before I was pretty set on wanting a mavs lynch, and now I'm not sure how helpful it'll be to flip mavs either way

Flipping him if he's scum is definitely helpful.

I don’t know what this will reveal if Puppy flips red, but I think at this point, he’s most likely to flip red (votato would likely be cleared. R2R would also absolutely be cleared.)

You could find this out if you look at the two posts I made last night. Are you being coy or fishing for an answer here or what?

I mean, in fairness, there is definitely a magic box quality to your system. I don't see why we outsiders have any incentive to trust the parts of it we do not understand.

There are certain qualifications that make a Non-Associative, but obviously I can't talk about that so that my system continues to work and Scum can't manipulate it.

Ok, so yeah. I don't doubt this system works for you as town, but I just can't take your word wholesale that this pays off and I should trust you to the end and see what happens.

Still, this comes across as earnest for whatever reason. UNVOTE:

I need to do some more thinking on Quick again.

@Puppy - if the mavs lynch doesn't happen today, what do you think is the best compromise? Can you sum up the votato case for me?

votato started with a very flimsy read on Atarashi/hellbooks, which he claimed was based on reading other games, but his read was inconsistent. (His read was in two parts, one was based on Atarashi's scum game, the other was based on the fact that he'd never actually seen Atarashi's scum game.) he was just trying to look like he put work in

a lot of his other reads show the same trait, i think this case keeps getting better and better! (look at his midway vote in 1066, it's totally empty.)

i also don't like the way he sided with gamma against blair. i almost think he sided too strongly with gamma, but looking again I still don't like it. see 1110 where he complains about blair posting too much without content. For comparison, 1677 he talks about how high his postcount is, and tries to quiz quick about voting for midway. (Wasn't that one of votato's scumtells?)

I also think if Votato makes a lot of sense with Gamma, he makes a lot of sense with Mav. This is kind of arbitrary, not sure i want to put too much into building a team right now. but read each iso looking for mentions of the other and it looks like distancing

I mean, I can't argue that votato has had some very weird plays this game. That stuck out to me early on when I pushed for his lynch Day 1. I think I said this earlier, but votato feels reckless in a town way. He's taking chances and putting unpopular votes out there at times when it feels like he could coast more. He's also had some good posts along side some of the bad ones.

By suggesting not lynching either, you were accepting Blair’s claim but refusing to vote Gamma. And the lack of a flip there wouldn’t give town any good information.

Yes, I agree with this. That suggestion still sticks with me as weird. It was very clear to almost everyone that we need to clear up the investigation.

whatever if my lynch helps clear mavs, so be it
but mavs is pretty useless at this point, so it shouldn't really matter

if your lynch does what now???

nvm i don't think it does.

narrator: It doesn't

@Puppy: oh, you were afk. Seems legit. Oh wait, didn’t you push me on why it took me an hour to claim after the L-1 vote? (Checks thread, finds 1645). It appears you did. So that’s a scum read for you, me waiting an hour, but you being afk for much longer is me digging too much in an attempt to get you mislynched as scum? Oh, gotcha. My bad...

Can we lynch Puppy?

Ouch.

Giving a summation of this puppy/mavs fight, I think mavs comes out looking stronger. HOWEVER, I'm actually worried that puppy is town here and has been phoning in the game for a minute. Let's not forget that puppy did actually disappear for a hot minute (around Day 2 iirc), so I could see a town!puppy coming back trying to make a case and just leaning into it too hard because they hadn't worked on the game much earlier.

@r2r and hellbrooks - who do you actually want to vote out today? We need some stronger opinions from you. Particularly hellbrooks. I totally get the claim changing reads or needing to reconsider, but I see a lot of "well it could be X....or it could also be Y"...which isn't super helpful in trying to read you.

VOTE: puppy

y tho?

Also thinking that a r2r bus from Gamma is very plausible especially since it looks strongly like r2r is now looking to coast.

Very plausible? no.

mavs, why do you think votato is town

most of his iso is just sniping at other players and throwing shade (a lot of what you think makes me scum)

Cause I think you’re scum. And if you’re scum, votato can’t be your buddy.

Where do you look if puppy is town

You....just voted puppy...

That post seems pretty towny

VOTE: hellbrooks
I don't think you've offered one actual opinion today without immediately going back on it.

VPB was in the second game I ever played here and then in a few more that Vi modded in the way back times

VP, does Gamma bus?

I honestly couldn't tell you. It's been so many years since I played on this site. Previous last game was in 2013 (I think?) Keeping people's playstyles in memory is not something I've done, and even if I had, it'd probably be irrelevant at this point. I'm sure a quick look at vote counts in his more recent scum games would answer this question though.

wait what? I thought hellbooks was newbie

Actually, this feels pretty relevant. I totally was operating under the premise that hellbrooks was a newer player and that's why she couldn't make any kind of decisions about her reads.

hellbrooks, why exactly has your play been so waffling if you've been on this site for years and actually know how this game works?

Also, someone suggested claiming fruit vendor and withholding the disloyal part as a ploy, but in the game Dunn posted, there was BOTH, so claiming fruit vendor would’ve potentially been CC’ed and that would’ve been an ABSOLUTE disaster. More destructive than me just fucking up my role assuming “fruit checker” is a thing.

You didn't have a reason to suspect there was another fruit vendor when you were initially claiming, though

Not sure I agree with this. He may have made a bad assumption here, but I could totally see him thinking this was a two part town role. The odds of it actually landing an investigation before one of the roles dies would not be high overall I would think.

[VP Baltar]

Quick -- is there a meaningful difference between midway and hellbrooks this game?

My case for hellbrooks being a good choice would be that she is waffling more than I think is reasonable, she could definitely fit with Gamma, and she is posting plenty in GD on her other account ... so she is clearly around more than we are seeing.

[VP Baltar]

@Quick: 980. I know you’ll reject this, but at this point Blair had laid out a plan against Gamma. Only Dunn had voted it. This was before the “cop post of 1000” and R2R has gained steam again and had 3 votes (Gamma, myself, and votato). Saying Dunn is paired with Gamma would be suggesting that Dunn opt’ed to bus his partner here where he didn’t need to, as in, Dunn went out of his way to bus his partner where he could’ve easily voted elsewhere without suspicion.

The counter to a potential bus would be how Blair CONTINUED to push Gamma. Dunn didn’t. This argument would reject Dunn’s vote of Gamma as a bus and more as an early Gamma vote for town cred and also infer that Dunn threw it on unaware of a cop claim and didn’t think Gamma would be lynched after Blair’s case. Dunn also seemed to seek town cred with 1175. In addition, 1178 & 1183 would be awkward scum posts looking to set the stage knowing a Gamma flip will result in scum. So I guess if you’re saying Dunn did indeed bus Gamma, that would ALSO result in votato/myself being cleared. Potentially Puppy since he does have a confrontational approach to Puppy
1214 - 1218.

The presence of sheeping Blair but lack of a push on Gamma does strike me as odd. But I can’t see scum voting Gamma here with more attractive voting options available. So I think Dunn is likely town and did NOT bus Gamma, but the vote of Gamma without any follow up is noticeable and giving me doubts about Dunn, but I doubt he bus’ed Gamma in that situation. A bus is more likely to happen following the Blair claim OR scum trying to find reasons to NOT vote Gamma (aka Puppy and then you).

This is a pretty good sum up of how I feel about Dunn. He's kind of like wallpaper this game and the vote on Gamma so early is the only major point I see in his favor. I mean, it's a strong one in some sense. That would be a weird and monumentally stupid time to bus your partner if you ask me...so it feels like he is town. That being said, anything is possible.

I agree there wasn't a huge amount of follow through after the vote. Although, as I'm reviewing this it looks like Dunn only made about 6 posts between his vote and Blair's claim. That's over the course of a few hours.


@hellbrooks - why is outing the alt "poisonous" to you wanting to post here? I mean, it was an accident. I don't think anyone thinks less of you for doing it.

[VP Baltar]

I'm definitely watching puppy.

Can you recap in a succinct way (like two or three sentences or some bullet points) your case? Want to make sure I'm reading everything correctly as I weigh stuff. No need to document or full recap, I can reread things for myself. Just the highlights in one place.

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, once a game is done, it's done as far as I know.

[VP Baltar]

Sure:

* Dunn's main catch-up came in 853. He clearly felt good enough about his reads to hammer in the next post, but when pressed on how his reads have changed since 853 claims that those were early reads and so they don't mean much.

* Dunn still refuses to take responsibility for the D1 hammer. He keeps blaming quick for telling him to hammer. This is a cop out.

* Dunn had votato as a strong scum read and me as a weak town read. Then, last night (forgot post num, on phone), he decided he's willing to Lynch me after all even though he had said the whole time he wouldn't vote with votato. That's not a natural evolution, that's just convenient.

The whole pattern of Dunn's iso is refusing to take responsibility and convenient reads when he needs them. The only point in his favor is that he voted gamma before Blair claimed, but I think that's weak.

I think the strongest point here is No. 3. Definitely seemed like he flexed under pressure. I can possibly see a town reason for this, but I won't speak for Dunn and give him that explanation. I also agree there is likely scum on the NPOM wagon, which I've been saying since day 1 (though I think your analysis is much stronger than me just feeling that has to be the case). Seems most likely somewhere in the hellbrooks/Quick/Dunn mix.

I think we have a difference of opinion about Dunn's position on the Gamma wagon, but I've mentioned that before.

As for hellbooks: 1812 & 1830 make NO sense for scum!hellbooks to post. She votes puppy and scum would just sit on that and not remove an L-1 vote and then gauge interest on a re-evaluation of the R2R slot potentially starting a new wagon with a mislynch so close. Thoughts?

Seems like a lot of WIFOM to me. The lack of taking actual positions and trying to get lynches had been very much working in hellbrooks' favor until very recently.

@hellbooks Where is your read on puppy atm? If puppy flips red, where do you propose we should look next?

town but if puppy flips red then I'd lynch vp baltar next

I feel like I'm on your target list no matter how you're trying to relate it tho...

hellbrooks, why exactly has your play been so waffling if you've been on this site for years and actually know how this game works?

thats my personality in real life too and i've done that for quite a few years as well so there you have it, sorry im annoying

I don't think you're annoying. I just think your playstyle is very hard to read if you're town.

@hellbrooks - why is outing the alt "poisonous" to you wanting to post here? I mean, it was an accident. I don't think anyone thinks less of you for doing it.

well before i was unworried about the game and now i am like strongly worried

ok. But why are you worried more? Look, I don't care about your alt or if you're spending more time in GD. I think the issue is that you seem to be not trying this game and coasting, even though you're active on the site. If you were adding to the scumhunting here, but posting in GD 10 times as much, I doubt it would look scummy.

[VP Baltar]

@VP: I’m not quite sure I buy the WIFOM theory about hellbooks. I get why people do read her as scummy. But she was mentioned as scummy and a potential lynch. So I can’t see how scum!hellbooks takes her vote off at L-1 and gauges interest in an R2R lynch (a lynch that would be a much harder lynch as R2R sat at 0 votes).With her removing her vote, scum!hellbooks made it harder to get a presumed mislynch knowing very well she might be today’s lynch. I still think despite her scumminess, I can’t see that action coming from scum in that scenario.

It's a fair point. I just feel like despite running lots of folks up today, we haven't been too unified on a decision. Put another way, what were the odds of any given L-1 happening? But you make a solid point on what the standard scum play would be there.

Appreciate Quick being good people, regardless of alignment. You have my vote.

UNVOTE: hellbrooks
VOTE: midway

Midway definitely hasn't been scumhunting this game, and the several "I'm cleared town!" posts could be bad town play or just a scum gambit to plant disinformation. Mostly, I think we need to start coalescing wagons here and I'm not down for offing Puppy. I don't get the sense people are super into a hellbrooks wagon, even though I think there is a reasonable case there (at least as reasonable as midway). Plus side is that I think it's very possible for midway to have bussed Gamma. Plus, if midway flips red, that makes Quick look much better. Downside is that getting rid of midway doesn't clear up anything on that NPOM wagon the first day.

[VP Baltar]

do we? i think it's the only thing he's done that looks town, though it could just have been an accident. try to bus your partner and distance without knowing there's a cop with a guilty on him. i think overall it's null-town

Well maybe we have similar opinions then. I thought you were saying it wasn't really town. It certainly could be bussing, but it's enough of a protown move I'm not inclined to say that's the best case today.

Just an FYI to everyone: I have to cover the ongoing US protests, and my availability is likely to be very diminished. I'll keep checking in while I can, but if I can't be around for a bit of time -- that is why and I'll catch up as soon as I can.

[VP Baltar]

I'd be OK with dunn today. Two hammers with minimal wind up is scummy without a doubt. Reserving a vote right now because I don't see a need to rush it while we consider the board.

Regarding the Quick kill, I'm having a harder time parsing it. Could be because Quick was coming around to the Dunn case...though you'd think town!Puppy would be a priority if that were the goal? Hard to slice because Quick was kind of all over the place with reads at times. I'll do some more thinking on that too.

[VP Baltar]

All I could see was a last second effort to get the wagon on me instead of himself - that didn't sit right with me and I'm paranoid about scum trying to vote me out

VOTE: Puppy

We should have done this yesterday

I mean, I tried. You hopped off to hammer midway.....

What's your read on puppy today?

[VP Baltar]

VP Baltar seems to me to be setting up to lay down a Dunn vote but wants to be more careful about it plus it feels like he's letting the quick hammer argument (which I don't find compelling at all) completely redirect him from his gameview yesterday which seemed to be that me and midway were the scummiest people (and now there's not a mention of me) + has not really posted anything to escape my POE pool for a full day phase

Dunn+hellbrooks is a very real possibility. Putting it out there now.

[VP Baltar]

VP Baltar seems to me to be setting up to lay down a Dunn vote but wants to be more careful about it plus it feels like he's letting the quick hammer argument (which I don't find compelling at all) completely redirect him from his gameview yesterday which seemed to be that me and midway were the scummiest people (and now there's not a mention of me) + has not really posted anything to escape my POE pool for a full day phase

Dunn+hellbrooks is a very real possibility. Putting it out there now.

the fact that you're just now realizing that makes me think theyre both town and that you're the real scum. but maybe i should stop being paranoid.

What are you talking about that I'm just realizing it now? I was pushing hellbrooks yesterday and talking about Puppy's case as well. Dunn's hammer performance was basically a dead giveaway, so what I'm saying isn't some new realization.

I had a whole post written up about this but didn’t want to sound LAMIST (what up VP?). I’m actually kind of offended I wasn’t the NK and how the most anti-town person was... does that mean I’m more anti-town than Quick? Is that why they were like “mavsfan41, pft, please, dude’s all over the place.” WIFOM: left me alive cause scum!Puppy figures killing me would heavily implicate him or scum!someone else left me alive knowing I had some Puppy blood lust and I am anti-town and my reads are all wrong. Could be either, idk.

Tbh, at this point I’m sorta second guessing everyone. R2R has been probably the most confirmed town for awhile, dude is still alive. VP/Quick emerged as the pseudo town leaders in day 3. Puppy is either scum or mislynch fodder. Dunn is similar to R2R but less confirmed with the Quick hammer. I’d ask if Dunn delivered a quick hammer under the protection of an assumed townie, but assumed townie didn’t happen till day 2 after Gamma flipped scum. The NPOM was before that, so yes, Dunn had a history prior.

Anyway, Idk how y’all feel, but I’m a-okay have a PR come out if they believe they had a guilty at this point rather than push someone trying to keep their role on the DL. As far as I’m concerned, I’ll like vote Puppy/Dunn and see what happens after a flip....

Not the world's biggest fan of this suspicion everywhere approach. I think as town, we need to really start focusing and closing doors here. I still don't think we're in a slam dunk position in this game, and hitting scum today is a top priority. If we can do that, we'll be on easy street I think.

Out of curiosity, did you try to fruit anyone last night or did you just ditch it because it's pointless?

And yes, if anyone has any information that helps out scum, let's hear it.

Maybe this is just my votato tunnel again, but I'm a little concerned that he's so easily switched to Dunn. Then again he had started switching yesterday.and I don't think scum would have wanted another lunch besides the midway that was lined up.

I actually had the same concern. He was super fast to get on that wagon (to the point where I've basically had to hold a vote because I don't want a self-hammer from scum!Dunn). I also find the fact that he above tried to inject the possibility of Dunn town/VP scum highly concerning. There's not really logic behind that thinking.

It sounds like you know the case and have one yourself

The Gamma vote is null imo. Scum could not have known that early Blair case was going to conclude in a claim and a guilty. Scum could sheep Blair knowing they'd get to move that vote later, not knowing th e phase would get cut short

This is essentially the position I've arrived at as well after some thinking over the night phase. It's very possible a scum!Dunn was locked into a vote with no clear exit ramp. The tide on Gamma turned quickly. I know i called being on that wagon extraordinarily dumb if you were scum...but maybe that is just my bias as to what I would have done in that situation if I was scum. Everyone has their own playstyle. Still seems like a suboptimal scum play to roll over that fast, but to each their own (and if it helps me win my first game back, even better!)

We can't let you go unpunished for lolhammers. We also get at least as much info from your lynch as from Puppy's

I have to say, this latest "fight" between votato and Dunn feels very performative. First, are people seriously talking about killing puppy today? I don't think so. Second, I don't think the Dunn lynch has anything to do with gaining information. This smacks of distancing for me if the team is votato/Dunn.

So basically, there is a common Dunn-ominator with a hellbrooks/votato partner.

If my hypothesis is true, this game is pretty much a wrap.

[VP Baltar]

VP, I think you're being scumread because you've been vaguely townread all game, not by everyone but by enough that people wonder subconsciously why you are still alive if you're not in anyone POE

I feel like I could say the same about you

Honestly, though, one thing I've learned over my many years of playing this game is that a winning scum game is very much about controlling how many possibilities open. The more possibilities become limited, the harder it is for scum to win. So when I see posts later game that are trying to WIFOM, it's a big red flag for me.

[VP Baltar]

^ tl;dr version -- "hi, I'm scum and I don't like people pointing that out. I'll make a drawn out process of arriving at Dunn scum soon!"

[VP Baltar]

Here is a good question: why would town!hellbrooks not have looked at Dunn over night? Seems like a topic most people came prepped to discuss today.

[VP Baltar]

Further, puppy already did that work yesterday...

[VP Baltar]

Further, puppy already did that work yesterday...

So I should just trust puppy? o_o

It has all been there for awhile to review. The fact you are just now claiming to actually look at it shows you are likely scum

[VP Baltar]

^ tl;dr version -- "hi, I'm scum and I don't like people pointing that out. I'll make a drawn out process of arriving at Dunn scum soon!"

if you were actually scumhunting you'd wait for me to go through the drawn out process of arriving at dunn scum and then pounce on it

Nah, no need for me to participate in this performance.

VOTE: hellbrooks

This is as good as me waiting to vote Dunn. You were scum yesterday, and remain so today. It is 100% not believable that a town player wouldn't actually try to look at Dunn until just now after the events of yesterday.

[VP Baltar]

Dunn is the second vote on gamma, before any claim stuff / before when quick comes in
Blair says it might be good to examine that bc it could be scum picking up on a PR tell
Dunn says that's implausible and he voted before Blair's soft

You claim to have sent me disloyal fruit... which is kind of like an investigation result; why didn't you ask me if I received it at some point?

town post

both scum are caught and trying to defy logic to prevent this catch today. The house of cards is shaking and will tumble if either goes.

[VP Baltar]

Because Dunn could just self hammer then, thus ending the day and giving you a better chance of escaping.

Nice try to goad me into that though.

[VP Baltar]

So what exactly are you waiting for then? I'm not trying to provoke you with this question. I just want it to be known what your intentions are.

Waiting for everyone to say their piece and when we are ready to end the day, we can. I have no need to rush anyone else's game.

@votato - I think Dunn hellbrooks is the most likely scum pairing.

[VP Baltar]

it's the opposite. he doesn't think it's anything else.

Who do you think is the scum then?

[VP Baltar]

Just realized we get to remove Brooks and Dunn from this realm. We can win and save country music!

[VP Baltar]

it's the opposite. he doesn't think it's anything else.

Who do you think is the scum then?

you're my top scumread! Hopefully that doesn't come as a surprise to you right now! VP, if we lynch dunn and he flips town, what's your follow up? Where do you look next? what's the impact on your solve?

Who is my partner then?

Also, also...you're not even voting me.

@mavs - you don't need reservations about hellbrooks. I've caught both scum here and we are cruising to victory. Either one is acceptable.

[VP Baltar]

i think hellbooks in the last few pages looks fine

Looks fine? You serious?

Who is Dunn's partner then?

[VP Baltar]

if literally everyone agrees on lynching dunn and he flips scum (and let the record show that i do NOT think this)-- please do not discount VP Baltar. He's simultaneously going with the accepted opinion that dunn should die while also trying to pivot it away to a wagon on me.

Get out of here with this absurd BS.

First, I've been 100 percent clear on why my vote is where it is and my willingness to get rid of Dunn. You are so full of shit to say this is some counter wagon on Dunn to save him.

Second, it's hilarious how everything I post you say is further proof I'm scum. And yet, you have never made an actual case and YOU ARE NOT EVEN VOTING .

This is a huge scumtell. You are in a weak position and very concerned with people turning on you because you know I'm town and would not be an easy mislynch. I'm not going to roll over, so you just want to shade and shade in hopes some townie starts a wagon on me so you can vote and save your buddy Dunn.

Further, the place of argument you are coming from doesn't even make sense with Dunn town as you had previously been leaning. To make this argument, you must believe Dunn is scum, which you have not been seeming to think until suddenly.

[VP Baltar]

To be clear hellbrooks: I am not frustrated with you. This is a game played online and I think you're a very nice person for potentially worrying about upsetting people. I would never take a game so seriously as to be mad at you or anyone else over it.

I'm guessing you get that impression because I swore (admittedly a bad habit of mine) and that I used caps (which is merely to emphasize a key point I think you're ignoring).

All that being said, catching scum late game is fun and gets the blood going! Apologies if I came off abrasive

[VP Baltar]

in fact, when hellbooks asks me who will I consider if dunn flips town, I'm not even going to answer that.

Circling back to this. I think there is a very high probability that Dunn flips scum and this question is moot, which is why I didn't really answer it before. HOWEVER, I'm going to entertain the possibility you are town here for a moment and this is actually a genuine question. So assuming town!hellbrooks, if Dunn flips town, then I think I would need to challenge my assumptions to this point. Puppy would look less town probably, which is a tough pill for me to swallow because I've been reading puppy as town for quite some time now. Votato is votato and I think still potentially fits in a solve, though I'd want to do a deeper review. I'd also have to challenge my read that Mavs was being earnest in his (admittedly) unproveable claim. I still think r2r is town, even if Dunn flips green. Mostly, it'd be a complete re-evaluation of my reads to this point and making sure I'm not following any bad assumptions.

Largely, I do not think I am making bad assumptions, so that feels like a bridge I'd cross if I ever come to it.

Let me flip the question on you. Let's assume I'm town (I know, crazy), what is your solve of the game without VP scum?

[VP Baltar]

dunn, as the de facto lynch, seems to be largely a non presence here, mostly just pushing out weak platitudes and omgus statements. could imply a "caught" scum

Are you willing to vote puppy today or not?

What in the world is the case on puppy?

[VP Baltar]

not sure you're making sense here VP, because if dunn flips town and then we lynch hellbooks town, wouldn't that be game over? i don't think we have room for two mislynches here

That's not what I was saying though....

I said if Dunn flips town, I'd have to reconsider my next position very closely.

Anyhow, I don't think that's going to happen and that claim was meaningless.

VOTE: Dunn

If I get NKed, don't let hellbrooks skate by

[VP Baltar]

Whoops, waiting for that morning coffee to kick in

UNVOTE: hellbrooks
VOTE: Dunn

[VP Baltar]

I'm most interested in hearing from hellbrooks and votato first. I also think we may be at the point where a mass claim is beneficial. I have thoughts about the order, but if we do it I think r2r should decide since he is probably the closest to confirmed town I see.

My thoughts on where the scum is haven't shifted too much since I believed Dunn would flip red.

@Mavs - interested to hear from you how the Dunn and puppy flips shifted your perspective at all.

[VP Baltar]

Votato is trickier, but Dunn pushed both him and Puppy. I could potentially see a scenario where Dunn lopped votato with Puppy for distance as their day 1 exchange would make it nearly impossible for them to be scum together, and Dunn would’ve known that.

This is my top priority for a review once I get off work today.

My initial instinct is still that hellbrooks makes the most logical sense here (basically what votato said). I think he and I are probably looking at each other equally skeptically. Our moves this game have been very similar and I'm worried he is duping me.

I also would have thought basically confirmed town r2r would have been the NK, but WIFOM and all that.

We can wait for night info if anyone has it, but thoughts on mass claim? I'm not seeing much downside at this point, but maybe I'm missing something.

Pedit: Hellbrooks and I were in the middle of a convo yesterday, Mavs, and I think it is probably fair for me to give her a chance to continue today. Much like yesterday, I don't see a need to rush a wagon. Yesterday proved that we can put the info out there and still make the right call. Had I rushed my vote yesterday, I can almost guarantee Dunn would have self hammered to end the day sooner, don't you think?

[VP Baltar]

Idk, I think the fact he was so resistant to answering or really saying anything shows he was probably trying to limit info and wanted the day to end as fast as possible. Granted, he had one chance to self hammer after you voted I believe, but he was already toast by that point since you were voting and I explicitly said immediately that I was good with him going. Seemed to me like he was holding out hope that being quiet might lead you to another decision with your vote since I think you and hellbrooks were in more of a swing position.

[VP Baltar]

Isn't that basically the argument I made yesterday Mavs and you told me that hellbrooks was an easy target?

[VP Baltar]

ok, going back through some stuff again now that I have a moment to do some reading.

@VP: I think Dunn’s push on votato cleared him.

I read this again. I don't think I'd use the word cleared. I think there is a non-zero chance of a scum slap fight here and that votato was never in danger of an actual lynch. That being said, it'd be a bold move to come out after the gamma lynch and start pushing on your buddy, however slight of a push it was. I mean, what's really weird to me beyond that is that both votato and Dunn end up on a puppy wagon after that...which feels strange if you're scum buddies. Dunn seems to make that flip after he's facing pressure from puppy too.

have we had similar positions? i feel like the reason I've kept my FoS on you all game long is that you always seem to have the opposite take from me, or when we do the same things its for opposing reasons. the obvious solve here is hellbooks. and i think itll take a major revelation for the lynch to land anywhere else today. but at the same time, hellbooks is a bit too easy. i need to go re-read and think about some stuff.

I think we have often arrived at similar thought patterns, even if the journey is slightly different to get there. I think we both were thrown by Blair's left field suspicion on Gamma that later turned out to be an investigation. I think we both saw Dunn as obvious scum after his ill explained hammer on midway. Hell, we simulvoted Gamma. It's weird because you gave me serious scum vibes day 1 and then it was like mirrored footsteps. I've been trusting that as town all game since I know I'm town, but late game always has pangs of second thoughts.

And I also came across VP defending Dunn as puppy starts to try and build a case on him near the end of D3

I mean, guilty? I don't think I was the only one not buying the dunn case until the midway hammer. The fact he came out at the start of Day 2 and began bussing his partner made me think he was more likely town. From my perspective, it didn't really make sense as a scum play since there wasn't really that much pressure on Gamma at that point. After Dunn's midway hammer though, it looked more like he just got caught up on the wagon because of the investigation.

Also what are people's thoughts on mavs? Is there good reason reason (apart from NK WIFOM stuff) to think that it's possible for mavs to be scum?

It's still a possibility. His voting record...isn't amazing. I still think the claim would be hard to fake, though admittedly none of it ended up being provable. Generally, I also feel like he's been asking protown questions and seems to be working through the game trying to arrive at answers.

Someone needs to explain to me why scum!hellbooks would NK the ONLY person in the game that wasn't scumreading her

I find this a slightly compelling point. I mean, we don't know where Puppy would lean post Dunn flip (and I certainly would have considered them confirmed town), but an r2r kill seems like it would have made more sense? Although, generally speaking, I think an r2r kill would have made sense last night and every night since the gamma flip.

Votato, myself, you, and hellbooks (at that time Atarashi) on NPOM. My guess is scum is there. You were super close to a day 1 lynch. Using Blair’s theory, Gamma jumped off knowing NPOM would flip town. Day 2, Gamma again pushed for your lynch. So I’m least concerned with you. That again leaves votato & hellbooks. I skimmed through Dunn’s ISO and he does push votato’s lynch several times and mentions how he’s scum. I do read these interactions as Dunn pushing a votato mislynch. That just leaves hellbooks.

Although I do not have an answer for your question about hellbooks killing puppy, I will say, Dunn never really pushed hellbooks. I think achieving a mislynch there might’ve been pretty easy. Dunn mentions hellbooks very little.

Actually not a bad case for mavs scum

[VP Baltar]

I'm VT as well.

[VP Baltar]

Sweet! This just got much easier.

Mavs, so if I'm reading you right, you're saying your case on me is NK analysis, which you have repeatedly said this game is WIFOM?

Seems like a cornered scum reaction looking for the only lynches he can get at this point: me and votato

[VP Baltar]

Actually, yeah, I am ok with this. Mavs is definitely trying mischaracterize my play by saying I was late on the scum wagons. Votato and I simulvoted on Gamma, and I expressly said from the start of day 4 that my vote would have been voting Dunn immediately if it wouldn't have put him at L-1. That waiting while stating my intent to lynch Dunn kept the pressure on him while also pressuring hellbrooks....who would have been the next obvious lynch. Not taking any credit for r2r's smart track, but I don't think my play did anything but help.

Last and most important, setup wise it doesn't make sense for there to be THREE investigative roles unless the scum have some kind of super powers we have not seen this game. The fact that they weren't killing power roles left and right makes me think that is not the case (ie, some type of role cop or something to compensate for three investigators).

VOTE: Mavs

gg, you fooled me with the claim

[VP Baltar]

We have seen two mafia strongmen flip, meaning their kills were unblockable. That seems to be their power.

The other two aspects of their roles (day talk and selecting who makes the kill) can both be investigated. It really makes zero sense there would have been a role that if played correctly would have outted more scum.

Like I said, unless the last scum is a role cop -- which we have seen no evidence of, and perhaps some counter evidence of -- 3 investigators for town is super OP.

[VP Baltar]

We have seen two mafia strongmen flip, meaning their kills were unblockable. That seems to be their power.

The other two aspects of their roles (day talk and selecting who makes the kill) can both be investigated. It really makes zero sense there would have been a role that if played correctly would have outted more scum.

Like I said, unless the last scum is a role cop -- which we have seen no evidence of, and perhaps some counter evidence of -- 3 investigators for town is super OP.

Plus a town vig!

[VP Baltar]

I don't disagree that it is a weak role. However, if a town vig did survive to N4, the odds of hitting scum are likely through the roof. My point is that is a lot of town power and I'm not seeing the scum balance. Maybe there is a scum doctor? But even that would open the possibility for another chance to track.

Let's assume you are town, please explain to me whether you see this setup as balanced and why?

[VP Baltar]

@VP: if the claims are to be believed, mafia strongmen are irrelevant as there is no nurse/doctor. That’s a red herring as their kills would go through regardless.

I think that is part of my point. They are basically vanilla goons and there are three investigate roles? I'm just having a hard time understanding how that is balanced. Do three of them outweigh slightly hampered town power?

I think the argument you're making is that your role is completely useless, and I'm not sure if that's true. Granted, you would have to have conceptualized it differently from the start. It never crossed your mind initially upon reading such a weird role PM? Or you just straight away assumed there was a complimentary role?

[VP Baltar]

@VP: what you’re telling me is that this doesn’t check out and it’s all an elaborate attempt at a fake claim? I wouldn’t just claimed VT like everyone else. Both you and votato are voting me. That does mean that whoever is town does believe that I’m fake claiming and making it as crazy as possible? Come on.... you’re being used by the other.

You would have been lynched if you claimed VT probably.

I'll be honest here, I do see a scenario where you are some type of scum fruit vendor and town PRs receive fruit. That might be a weakened investigate role that balances more with the town we know of. I'm just trying to work through whether that makes logical sense with what you did claim, and to figure out how the setup works together because if I can see you as actually telling the truth, then yeah, votato makes complete sense.

[VP Baltar]

UNVOTE: mavs
I'm thinking, but also at work and will be busy this afternoon. I need more time to think this through completely. I still don't know if Mavs role works setup wise, but I'm not 100% I'm right there.

Pedit - The still alive argument doesn't make sense, and definitely one I'd expect scum to make. I've been on everyone's scum list at one point or another because I've been active and pushing hard on people when I think they are scum. I personally think I'm ideal mislynch bait in LyLo, and there is no way I'd be a preferred nightkill over more confirmed towns like puppy or r2r.

[VP Baltar]

oh interesting. looking forward very much to your re-evaluation there VP. i think i might know what your next post will say.

Haha, you think this type of psychological baiting works on me?

[VP Baltar]

votato, I'd like you to explain in detail your transition in thought on mavs. You've been bagging on him since his claim about how you don't believe it, so I'd like to hear specifics on this transition. What specifically led you to this benefit of the doubt? I'd also like you to address the questions I raise about the setup and what you see as the balance in that setup.

[VP Baltar]

im still waiting on VP's thing and decision about where to place his vote and then ill say my thing.

Both r2r and I have asked you specific questions. Answer them.

[VP Baltar]

We aren't having some kind of stand off here. I asked you questions specifically about your positions stated in this thread and your thoughts on setup. I've done some rereading, and I'm still not certain between you and Mavs. I'm asking questions to help decide what is likely my last vote of the day. This song and dance is not points in your favor. So...pretty please...just answer the questions.

[VP Baltar]

R2R claimed tracker. I buy this claim as he ONLY did it to clear hellbooks. Sure he could fake claim here, but due to the lack of PRs, this makes sense. Also, scum!R2R is better of just letting hellbooks get lynched. It makes NO sense for him to fake claim tracker here.

Yeah, I don't think there's any reason to doubt his claim. I mean, if Gamma went after him like that AND he faked a tracking on a townie...that's some genius level scum play and they deserve to win.

i havent presented a case on you because I townread you the whole game. I just have been unable to swallow your role/claim. And at this point I'm almost willing to lynch you purely based on that.

I don't care for this honestly. Looking at your iso, I definitely don't get strong town read vibes on mavs -- more like ambivalent, with some shade over the claim tossed in occasionally. I mean, if you think he is town, then it would make sense to believe the claim. That is where I was at all game. I think it only sort of makes sense now to question that assumption of a town read when the scum pool is very limited. I also think the last sentence here is keeping the door open if you can't get the momentum on me you want. To some degree, I get that if you were town because the logical assumption is it has to be one of us. But I also I don't see a town player being like 'well, whatevs'. It seems like with just a little bit of thought we can make the right choice today and not have to value lynches A & B as a coin flip.

mav voted me, and I backed off mav a bit. immediately, VP unvotes and "re-evaluates".

Nope. I was posting already and you posted while I was posting. Me having second thoughts on mavs had nothing to do with you. Don't try to twist facts. That was very clear in my unvote post because I marked it as a p.edit when I responded to you.

Post in question here:

UNVOTE: mavs
I'm thinking, but also at work and will be busy this afternoon. I need more time to think this through completely. I still don't know if Mavs role works setup wise, but I'm not 100% I'm right there.

Pedit - The still alive argument doesn't make sense, and definitely one I'd expect scum to make. I've been on everyone's scum list at one point or another because I've been active and pushing hard on people when I think they are scum. I personally think I'm ideal mislynch bait in LyLo, and there is no way I'd be a preferred nightkill over more confirmed towns like puppy or r2r.

oh and VOTE: VP

You...were already voting me. Are you even paying attention to what you're saying today?

had this thought but I don't see this being a normal role?

I actually had to look up the normal rules when he claimed because I was very confused. It seemed to me like any role that doesn't have misinformation or a third party is considered normal. I have never played with a fruit vendor before. Very bizarre.

VP baltar and I, now the best of friends, nostalgically looking back at old photos of us yelling at each other

lol

at this point, im ok with lynching VP today and me tomorrow.

This is absolutely silly. I can't imagine a scenario where I as town would ever say "give me this one today, and then if it's wrong we can just lynch townie ol' me tomorrow in Lylo". Like, what?

Anyhow, here is where I'm at.

I think there is a mountain of complexity in mavs claim, and while unprovable, would be quite elaborate as a fake. Like, that's some quality counterfeiting operation stuff. The setup balance with the claim definitely gives me pause, because it seems like town OP with the scum power roles we have seen so far. There is still one unknown variable, and that's whatever the last scum role is.

BUT

I think I need to trust my instincts here, and I've been reading mavs town since he claimed. That only leaves votato. It's pretty simple process of elimination and it's got to be him.

VOTE: votato

[VP Baltar]

@VP: Can you talk me through your thought process of your vote after my first claim? You seemed to be leaning town on both a lot this game, but votato slightly scummier, so what was your first instinct between the two of them and why did you settle on voting mavs at first?

Sure. You're correct to say that I've had both mavs and votato pretty firmly in my town column for awhile now. Mavs got there primarily through his claim. I've found his scumhunting weaker, but there generally seemed to be effort there and the claim seemed too elaborate to fake to me. Votato I felt like was doing more to pressure players, albeit flippantly and with lacking explanation at times. His votes also closely matched my own when it counted, so for me that made sense to be coming from town.

After your initial claim, I was watching to see if scum would flail a bit under pressure. Afterall, your claim essentially clears two townies -- an amazingly bad turn of events for scum this late in the game. Right after the claim, mavs made a very badly reasoned -- in my view -- case on me that could have just as easily have applied to votato if you're looking at the actual context of the votes. It seemed like a surface level case scum likes to make where you cherry pick details to smear someone. Additionally, I had serious doubts about three town investigative roles in a setup where the only scum power we have seen appears to be a red herring.

I still think both of the above are true, but the more I talked to mavs and he responded to players, the more it seemed like he was being genuine. And his claim remains elaborate, which was something I felt like I couldn't just ignore.

[VP Baltar]

the main thing i have going for me i think is that for me to be scum here, id have to be playing some serious 4-d chess with a lot of cheek. look at my completed games, and youll see that i dont have that in me. i do appreciate your confidence in me that you think i could pull off all this as scum.

I mean, saying you are aware of your scum meta means you could play against it. I don't think the game you've played so far would be that difficult as scum, and making jokes about being scum is definitely something I've seen people do before.

I still think votato is the right choice today.

[VP Baltar]

So over the night I just kept coming back to this question about the setup because I keep jostling with mavs claim (which I think is fairly believable) and the fact that three investigators is potentially very overpowered against three scum with no real powers that we've seen yet.

I just don't believe there is a role cop or jailkeeper or something like that in play because we just have not seen those effects based upon claims or NKs so far.

I feel like if I can make sense of this, we can win this game. Sadly, it did occur to me that there is a possibility we incorrectly cleared hellbrooks because of r2r's track. I did not know (or at least recall) what a ninja modifier was until I was rereading over the night phase and thinking about possible roles, but a ninja scum would make sense as a possible nerf to the town's investigative powers and would explain a negative track result. Then I thought to myself, "well that doesn't make sense, why would scum have had Gamma carry out the first night kill if they had an untrackable teammate?" But that kill happened when Atarashi was not yet replaced. So...did scum send Gamma to do the kill that night because they were lacking a teammate at the time? Or am I just overthinking this and mavs is the obvious answer here.

I would like to hear from both of you on what you've thought about regarding the setup balance and what would actually make sense for the scum here...because I'll be honest, I'm much less sure than I was yesterday at the close of the day. What am I missing?

[VP Baltar]

Setup analysis:

Town:

Daytalk investigator

(basically a full cop in this setup since no neighbors)

Tracker

(weaker early game, strong late game)

Disloyal fruit vendor

(weak investigative role if played right, also possible to confirm as town via tracker)

Night 4 vig

(could outright win the game for town, but also could lose it. Depends on quality of player holding the role. Possible to confirm via tracker later in the game.)

Scum:

Strongman

(does nothing in this setup, so essentially goon)

Strongman

(does nothing in this setup, so essentially goon)

????

I think it's basically impossible for a setup like this to get through review without some type of power in that third role or some type of adjustment to the town side.

[VP Baltar]

Anyhow, I have a lot of meetings this afteroon, but I'll be back later. I just wanted to get that out there quick so I'm not mislynched because of votato's bad play and inability to help work through possibilities yesterday.

[VP Baltar]

Did you read what I wrote above about Atarashi not being around? If you are not scum, you are putting us in rapid danger of losing this game if hellbrooks is scum and can quick hammer me.

[VP Baltar]

I'm going to wait to hear what mavs has to say before responding to you if you don't mind

I'm fine with this. Especially if you don't come in and instahammer me because that proves mavs scum.

[VP Baltar]

If she has a ninja modifier, she gets no track results. N1, that slot was not around to perform the kill due to replacement.

[VP Baltar]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Ninja

[VP Baltar]

In fact, I tagged R2R last night.

Why would you not target me? That seems more obvious. If r2r had lived the night, he would have had a result to win the game most likely. I don't understand the logic here at all

[VP Baltar]

I would like to stress, why didn’t you come out yesterday with the whole hellbooks is a ninja thing? Why is that coming out today?

I didn't think of it. I was researching over the night phase how the setup could be working because I honestly believed your claim.

Regarding you and r2r, I guess what I'm saying is that regardless of who was scum, it would only make sense that r2r would get killed. I mean, maybe if I'm right about a ninja role it would have to let him live? But without that for sure it would have been illogical for a scum to not kill r2r last night. That's why I'm saying targeting him makes no sense. I get your explanation, but you clearly weren't thinking about a possible ninja role, so I don't get why you wouldn't think he'd just get NK.

P edit:. Yep. VOTE: mavs

[VP Baltar]

Ok, so yeah, hellbrooks...the setup literally makes no sense as laid out with the info we have. Mavs has to be lying about his claim.

[VP Baltar]

That's certainly an accurate representation. /s

I don't think I've seen you this aggressive about anything all game, so that's cool!

[VP Baltar]

Okay, I went back and read large parts of this game over and here’s where I’m at....
Puppy is off-wagon on EVERY vote. His reasons for being off wagon are weak at best. The Gamma vote...

ok, i'm all caught up, i didn't see the stuff about roles and claims until the end

not sure there's much i can add, one of blair/gamma is scum, i've been townreading blair most of the game and will probably side that way

Here comes a Gamma vote right?

ok, i'm all caught up, i didn't see the stuff about roles and claims until the end

not sure there's much i can add, one of blair/gamma is scum, i've been townreading blair most of the game and will probably side that way

a very small part of me is tempted to say that we should not lynch blair or gammagooey and just let gamma live until n3 so he can shoot blair if he can

but, meh, can't outsmart the counter claims i think

Nope. With all the reasons he’s found to actually vote, this one seems weird to not vote here. Day 2 is the only day that ended without Puppy being off wagon. This strikes me as Puppy knowing who will flip what.

If Puppy is scum, I think the only possible pairings are VP/Hellbooks. My guess here would be Hellbooks. A puppy/vp would mean an ALL TOWN lynch in day 1 of NPOM. A hellbooks/puppy pairing would make more sense considering the Gamma lynch. (Hellbooks wasn’t on the NPOM, that was Atarashi super early.) I also don’t see scum!hellbooks jumping off my wagon with 1480. Hellbooks does vote puppy in 1811 but unvotes very shortly after Quick put puppy at L-1. This would also make sense from the day 1 perspective of votato getting on Atarashi and then puppy tunneling the ever loving crap of votato, a read he supposedly carried throughout day 1 (omitted for some reason day 2) and then brought back up day 3. Another possible scum partner would be VP, but I don’t quite believe VP is scum.

@Puppy: what’s your feelings on votato? You’ve seemed to think he’s scum and now have switched to Dunn. I do not believe Dunn/votato are a pairing meaning at least one is town. Voting Dunn, do you now believe votato to be town?

The off-wagon Puppy has the inverse. And that is Dunn. I’ve stated my feelings on Dunn especially my rejection of the early bus on Gamma. That being said, the day 1 lynch must have 1 scum on it right? Right? That would mean Dunn, votato, or hellbooks. Scum is here. (The only other living players on that were R2R and myself.) I hate Dunn’s hammer on midway ESPECIALLY since he has conviction puppy is scum than ran to midway. That would suggest he believed a Puppy/midway pairing. He never mentions this. Not even once. Not even close. He independently suggests scum in midway with 1860 which is a wack post. The hammer of NPOM was bad. The hammer of midway was waaaay worse! And before you @me Dunn, your progression on midway was nonexistent. It was a hammer to hammer. You hasn’t previously read him as scum and if you think puppy is scum, why even hammer midway at all? That’s super anti-town. This makes me actually really want to vote Dunn.

A quick list of other players here:
VP - could see a sneaky scenario where he is scum. Partners... um, votato and puppy? I know it was super early, but I would say votato’s 398 eliminates a pairing as votato refused to move his vote from Atarashi, and then he finally moved it to bus? Nah. Puppy/VP is a thing that might be a thing? Not sure. But that’s the only possible pairing for me that has VP as scum.

Votato - no clue still. Scum!puppy makes votato town for sure. I don’t see a votato/hellbooks based of the Atarashi interaction from day 1. Votato I would say is likely town due to him not really having a partner unless it’s 11:2.

Hellbooks - could really be scum with many players still left. Also, the wagon on me is all town if hellbooks is town. If that’s the case, I think votato would be scum here as I would’ve been lynched with an all town wagon if town!hellbooks and town votato.

I guess I feel it’s either hellbooks/puppy or hellbooks Dunn based off process of elimination. Hellbooks is likely scum in these scenarios. So I’m okay there. However, a puppy/Dunn lynch would provide town with more info. As it essentially clears the other player. Puppy would be my choice here but Dunn, please be less anti-town and muddying stuff up!! Why the 180 to midway after seemingly never previously SR’ing him. That’s sketch af.

@dunn: who is puppy’s partner and why? Who can’t be puppy’s partner and why? Also, why are you now going from lol hammering to immediately jumping at puppy from the get-go? Also, in day 3, just before the hammer, in 2069, you have scum as votato/puppy. Surely not as a team right? That would mean you would think midway is partnered with votato (DEFINITELY not the case) or partnered with puppy (which you never bring up ONCE!). I’ve now changed my mind...

VOTE: Dunn

This has been one long stream of consciousness post.
Possibly pairings: hellbooks and that’s basically it....

Pedit: @votato: why not hellbooks with Dunn? 2208 would be VP lynching hellbooks with Dunn as the only real option yes?

Reason #1 mavs is scum

: This above post ^ Now that it is clear mavs is the scum, it is hilarious to re-read. It is the most hand-wavey, "maybe Dunn is scum, but here are lots of reasons he's not, but oh yeah, I'll vote anyhow on this clearly unavoidable lynch" post.
Here is how the ghost of puppy's past characterized it:

admit i was surprised to read this and then find a dunn vote at the end

Reason #2:

Mavs also never voted for Gamma even though it was very clear Blair caught him out.

Reason #3:

Mavs' role also makes no sense in the setup and there's been zero explanation from him regarding that.

Compared to:

VP has supported both scum wagons early and often. Don't believe the hype when mavs tries to claim I was late on that Dunn wagon! Here is literally the first thing I said Day 4:

I'd be OK with dunn today. Two hammers with minimal wind up is scummy without a doubt.

Had I voted at that point, it would have given Dunn the chance to self-hammer with like ~10 posts in the day. It's a ridiculous assertion to say I should have voted then rather than try to figure out a Dunn pairing.

I certainly haven't been perfect this game, but I've been absolutely doing pro-town actions all game and killing scum in the process. I think the answer here is very clear.

[VP Baltar]

this is my nightmare scenario
i'll do some thinking tonight lmao

The irony of the least decisive player needing to decide this game hasn't been lost on me.

I believe in you hellbrooks! Do it for justice!

[VP Baltar]

He’s got the same poor voting record as me.

My guy...this is not even close to an accurate fact.

Vote counts don't lie.

[VP Baltar]

If you switch you off NPOM with me off midway... identical my dude. Sure, I wasn’t on the Gamma one, but I was afk in the 3.5 hours from a Blair guilty to a votato/VP double team hammer.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts.....



@hellbrooks - trust me, coming in today questioning the setup would not be what I'd want to do as scum. Of course that looks bad! If I was scum, it would make no sense to question you when I'd know I'd likely need your vote. But winning as town doesn't mean I should do the easy thing. It means I actually have to figure out what is going on because I don't actually know. Meanwhile, mavs has not tried to figure out how an out of balance game actually makes sense because he already knows!

Also, if the "I don't have anything to say" attitude doesn't reek of scumminess, I don't know what does. I've been an easy mislynch target since forever because I push on people. He knows that and he doesn't want to rock that boat at all by engaging in logical questions.

[VP Baltar]

I mean, I think this equation is actually rather simple. It comes down to who has done more to help town. I think that has been obviously me all game. Votato just did not play a great game and blamed me for that....which is whatever.

R2R I believe just had last minute paranoia about me. He had been calling me town all game.

I mean, if we are looking at the opinions of dead players, there were many (quick and puppy come to mind) who were calling me town and we're NK. That wouldn't even make sense for me as scum.

So yeah, mavs knows you and I have had our differences and he's skating on that. But objectively speaking, who has been helping town more and figuring out more things? That's the metric that should be guiding your choice, imo.

[VP Baltar]

But hey, props to mavs on an intricate fake claim. I'll be excited to see what your role really is and how you pulled it off. If you fake your way into a victory here off that claim, you earned it.

[VP Baltar]

Vote Count 3.3

mavsfan41

(4): midwaybear, hellbooks, ready2rock, Quick

votato

(2): CantLynchAPuppy, Dunnstral

midwaybear

(1): votato

hellbooks

(1): mavsfan41

Not Voting

(1): VP Baltar

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-06-03 01:07:00)

Mavs town would also imply he somehow got ran to L-1 with no scum participating. Seems like it would have been a big fat juicy mislynch for scum to join. If I was scum, why would I come in and defend his claim when I could have easily said nope and finished him? Why would hammer king Dunn resist yet another opportunity?

There is only one answer here.

[VP Baltar]

Spin spin spin

[VP Baltar]

Are you getting worried now I'm not just going to roll over and let town lose this game?

[VP Baltar]

thanks for resolving so quickly and VP BALTAR HELL OF A GAME

I'm actually really proud of you for trusting yourself! You had me pegged as scum before most people. I would have been a little sad if I successfully swayed you from that.

gg town.

Sorry to my scum teammates! I tried to hold it together, but that tracking by r2r made it pretty tough. If I had to do something different, maybe I would have killed him instead of puppy.

I'll add some more thoughts later as they come to me.

[VP Baltar]

@VP: the night you took out R2R I was sooo intrigued how you’d play that scenario. Whether you’d kill the tracker or opt to kill hellbooks and argue R2R fake claimed tracker. I figured there was a decent chance you’d do that (50/50) where the more obvious choice is to kill the tracker. That’s why I did tag R2R, to potentially get R2R if he was fake claiming and claimed he tracked me. But realized if he was fake claiming, he would’ve just said he tracked you and you killed hellbooks. Did killing hellbooks over R2R and trying to say R2R was fake claiming in lylo cross your mind of how to play that? I was kinda terrified of a scenario where R2R was going to survive to lylo basically being cleared from day 3 onward.

The thought did cross my mind to try to say he was faking tracker, but it felt like I had lower odds of convincing you on that than maybe swaying hellbrooks. Would you have actually been suspicious of r2r?

I do think the setup was maybe a little unbalanced! I need to read that review thread after work.

And I totally agree with you that we goofed with the Nauci kill over Blair! Blair's copping was a huge setback for us early in the game.