Mini Normal 2157 | Over

[Andresvmb]

Hello all! I’m excited to play my first game here. Let me catch up I was not aware the game had started already. Oh and for those that will ask about my experience or where I come from - I typically play on a small rather newish forum called Mafia451. I think I’ve played north of 100 games there (if you go to it you’ll quickly realize I play basically every game). So that’s a bit of background about me. I don’t recognize anybody from the playerlist so this will be fun, though I did read a few games around the site just to get a feel for the meta here.

[Andresvmb]

I find myself hard agreeing with most of what VP Baltar has already explained regarding Iconeum’s push on NPOM, which I thought was too much on what seemed to me as mildly defensive. So I’m going to place VP Baltar as a Town Lean, though I’ll admit that he certainly sounds like he’s been around, so could be fooling me with the tone.

[Andresvmb]

VOTE: Iconeum

[Andresvmb]

Okay I did not screw that up.

I am voting here for a few reasons. I felt Iconeum was overly eager to cast a Scum net over NPOM, and I would describe the certainty that George Bailey is Town as a factor as well. I have no real certainty on whether Iconeum, NPOM or George Bailey are Town or Scum. I am not going to pretend that I have a solid answer here. But the whole Town slipping thing and arguing so strongly that there was a Town mindset just seems off to me.

[Andresvmb]

hi andres, what made you vote ico *now*?

No particular reason for why now. I fell asleep while re-reading on my phone and I woke up and decided I would put a vote down.

[Andresvmb]

do you have feels on any other player (other than baltar i guess)?

Yeah I have a few leans but the only decent one is VPB Town. I actually had you down as Town since you also made the point that Iconeum's certainty on GB was suspicious in #63, but I am not the biggest fan of your vote on me for obvious reasons. I am way past the point that I SR players that vote me, so I was fine just letting that be, and still overall think you're alright.

I felt JamSV's entrance was Towny (sense of humor is always good), and I am getting negative vibes out of Snowblaze. They were attacking VP Baltar's logic on #105 and I simply do not agree at all. Nothing wrong with disagreeing of course, but it seemed like a lot of shade in an attempt at defend Iconeum, and against a player that just seems Town to me.

[Andresvmb]

I have not narrowed down how I feel about Testarossa or NPOM to be totally honest. Testarossa could be Town for all I know, but I was not feeling the logic in #112. I did not see the Town mindset in Iconeum so aggressively stating that GB was Town and had Townslipped, which Iconeum used as a reason to suspect NPOM (as confirmed by #50). But I mean there seems like there's a real attempt by Testarossa at figuring out what's going on.

[Andresvmb]

hate to break it to you, but while ico's certainty about george is somewhat suspicious, i don't really think he's scum for it. have you missed me saying i think ico's town in 93? do you think my vote on you makes me more likely to be scum?

by the way, please link posts using the post tags

Code: Select all

[post]126[/post]

becomes: 126

Well I do not have any back story with any of you, so I would not know whether Ico's certainty makes him Scum or not (I know more than a few players that are actually extremely good at spotting small things and making very accurate reads, particularly when they have played with each other many times over). I am just explaining the rationale behind some of my views and my vote.

Voting me does not say anything to me about your alignment in a vacuum. But I am new to this place, so before putting a vote on me, your average player would have maybe asked me a few questions or tried to figure out where I was coming from. If you think I have a Scum mindset after engaging with me, then that's whatever.

[Andresvmb]

i'm not a master at reading ico. i was just pointing out that your reasoning for thinking i'm town (me making a point about ico's certainty) might not be true (i don't think he's scum right now) - so i'm wondering how that knowledge affects your read on me.

snippets like

"I am way past the point that I SR players that vote me, so I was fine just letting that be, and still overall think you're alright."

and

"But I am new to this place, so before putting a vote on me, your average player would have maybe asked me a few questions or tried to figure out where I was coming from."

make me think you're vaguely not a fan of my vote. i'm hoping to get more concrete opinions out of you, if that makes sense.

No of course. Scum make good points all the time - they have all of the information after all. My overall view is just not much changed. I am trusting my original instinct and will update as things evolve.

And I can't say that I feel particularly strongly about your vote on me. It's early, and it's not easy to make accurate assessments on other players yet.

[Andresvmb]

I think what Iconeum is doing is somewhat remarkable. I’ll say this upfront and perhaps this is an area of disagreement with VP - yes, Scum can be cautious early, but there’s more than a few players that much prefer to be aggressive and push their way, particularly when the Town seems disorganized.

183 and 184 are quite interesting, in that they miss the heart of VPB’s point. VPB appears to be arguing (I will caveat, this is what I’m interpreting the argument to be) that NPOM’s entrance was abrasive, which is probably more likely to come from Town than Scum (Scum being careful and all). And then, arguing that Iconeum is taking advantage of NPOM’s defensive entrance to push a player that Iconeum knows is prone to being voted by Town, since Town might easily misread NPOM’s defensiveness for scuminess (and have done so in a previous game). Not completely unreasonable. Iconeum seems offended by this argument, and first votes VPB for making it (saying his conclusions don’t make any sense), and then me for agreeing.

189 is funny. Iconeum and I have never played before. They have no idea how I play Town or Scum, how I phrase my arguments as either alignment, or what my skills/weaknesses are. Yet they seem to believe that they can point to one post of mine agreeing with another player and come to the definitive conclusion that I’m Scum. Notice that it also comes as a hedge regarding their vote on VPB, followed by a switch onto me in 193. Yet after all of that, they feel like they need to speak directly to me, asking me to re-read VPB’s ISO. Why? If I’m surely Scum, then what is there to convince me about?

Now, again, I’m not trying to say I know for a fact that Iconeum is Scum. That would be absurd. And it’s just not a skill I have. However, the reaction is obviously way over the top, and I don’t see the Town motivation. Not everyone that believes you are Scum can be Scum. But instead of probing or trying to figure out where we are coming from, the primary response was aggressiveness followed by two votes.

208 - I am wholly unmoved by this, and it’s just a blatant appeal to emotion. I mean this is an obviously Scummy post.

[Andresvmb]

Ah no wait, 210 seems to actually explain the reasoning behind the SR on me - my “huge fencesit opening”. I thought the meta here involved being somewhat detailed about your views. Can someone explain this one to me? Because from where I sit, this looks like a completely made up reason justifying an action taken after a vote on them.

[Andresvmb]

NPOM is making a lot of consecutive posts I agree with. Namely, 224, 226 and 231. In fact, the last one meshes quite well with what I’m arguing. I share VPB’s caution about the intent to vote thing (in my experience, when Town feel a certain way, they tend to just vote directly and not make a show of it), so on balance I’m not convinced NPOM is Town, but I’m leaning that way.

[Andresvmb]

I am getting negative vibes out of Snowblaze. They were attacking VP Baltar's logic on #105 and I simply do not agree at all. Nothing wrong with disagreeing of course, but it seemed like a lot of shade in an attempt at defend Iconeum, and against a player that just seems Town to me.

That’s... not what I was doing? I was just pointing out something that didn’t make sense?

I will accept this. I don’t agree it did not make sense, but you are probably right in that I was reading more shade into your post than there really is.

[Andresvmb]

@Andre, can you explain your thoughts on Testarossa in more detail? 168 just feels like you’re saying “I would call her town except I disagree with her reads so I can’t”.

The last paragraph in 112 from Testarossa is what’s keeping me from calling Testarossa hard Town (any update from you on this @Testarossa would be appreciated). The whole approach, the way Testarossa asks questions (for example in 113), all seem to come from a Town mindset for me. For example, the observation regarding the RVS vote from Billy Pilgrim after making a strong argument that NPOM was Scum is a good one. 114 assumes a devil’s advocate type position also, which again is totally reasonable (and the probing about what’s driving VPB’s read of NPOM is definitely good).

So yeah, at least initially and after re-reading the ISO, I see Testarossa as Lean Town.

[Andresvmb]

I am shading Iconeum for speaking to me directly because it is not genuine probing. Notice that they only attacked me as definite Scum after I voted them, yet felt it was still important to try and direct me away from them (presumably, if I question VPB’s logic, and realize it’s wrong, I’ll move away). So for me, that ship has sailed to some extent. They are obviously going to disagree with VPB’s assessment of the situation - that’s fine. It’s the stated agitation about two players probing their slot that just seems Scummy to me. I did not count all of the votes on me, but it seems as if I’ve garnered more votes than Iconeum, yes? You don’t see me lashing out at people for their view. They are wrong, and I’m hoping I can seem more obvious Town as the game goes along. But again, none of you have played with me again so I could not possibly expect that everybody is going to read me correctly.

[Andresvmb]

Also, your skepticism about me being non-committal is fair. But step into my shoes for a minute - this is literally my first game on this site. Do any of you expect me to have pinpoint reads about players that have a lot of experience playing Mafia? I’ve been around right - the guys that sound the best and can keep their cool and make solid arguments are not always Town. If anything, VPB’s style of play very much strikes me as someone that can manipulate Town quite well. If I was saying that VPB was definitive Town or Scum, then you should be more worried about my alignment.

[Andresvmb]

^that’s all for Datisi.

[Andresvmb]

andres, is there a difference in your mind between ico's 210 (the part about you) and my 162? if so, can you talk about it?

i actually didn't notice ico attacking you as "definite scum", could you point that out? and like, you're saying as if "lashing out at votes = scum" and "not lashing out = town", which is not always the case

189 seems like a strong attack no? And I’m not making super broad points about how everybody plays Mafia. But do you not agree that the agitation and obvious anger from Iconeum (Caps seem like an effective way of communicating anger) are not a bit over the top over two votes?

[Andresvmb]

Also, your skepticism about me being non-committal is fair.

[snip]

If I was saying that VPB was definitive Town or Scum, then you should be more worried about my alignment.

if skepticism about you being non-committal is fair, is skepticism about you being fence-sitty also fair?

also very disagree with the second point, but dunno how AI that is

I have not been fencesitting. Please point out to me how I’m playing like I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for people to chew each other out.

[Andresvmb]

So I’m going to place VP Baltar as a Town Lean, though I’ll admit that he certainly sounds like he’s been around, so could be fooling me

this is what i see as fence-sitty. "could be town but uhh he could be fooling me." are we using the terms differently?

You’re entirely focused on the one read I gave much earlier, but are not looking at the rest of my posts. I won’t be voting VPB soon. I think VPB is Town. I believe we are coming from similar places. VPB is experienced, so I am not going to pretend I’m married to this read.

I mean I was called as a huge fence sitter by Iconeum. This is the sort of thing that is typically reserved for players when they see a wagon building, have expressed a view that said player is Town, but they leave an opening to hop on to that wagon to ensure that Town is eliminated and not Scum.

[Andresvmb]

Please point out to me how I’m playing like I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for people to chew each other out.

also i never said that, so please don't put words in my mouth

That is quite clearly not what I was doing (putting words in your mouth). I’m being dismissive of the argument that I have been fencesitting or sitting on the sidelines (made by Iconeum) because it’s a bad one. And since you seem to be siding there, I was asking you to point out how my play can be interpreted this way.

[Andresvmb]

Notice that they only attacked me as

definite Scum

after I voted them,

you quote me right now where i'm calling you definite scum or i'm tunneling you for the rest of this game

Assume for a moment that I have you wrong (I don’t think so, but bear with me). And that you are not convinced I’m Scum. How is this supposed to be helpful again? You are free to tunnel me all you want. I’m interpreting your reaction and arguments as mostly coming from a Scum mindset. But maybe it’s just how you communicate.

[Andresvmb]

Also, can somebody other than Iconeum come up with a definition of OMGUS’ing that most of us can agree on?

[Andresvmb]

Also, can somebody other than Iconeum come up with a definition of OMGUS’ing that most of us can agree on?

voting someone purely because they voted you?

this is the definition of omgus

it's clearly not what i'm doing

and i'm extremely sick and tired of these misreps

When a player immediately votes back someone who is voting their slot, it very often gets looked at as OMGUS’ing because it is hard to see such a move as genuine. If I had to boil down my skepticism of your slot into one argument, it would be that.

I also find the constant appeal to emotion difficult to interpret. You appear “agitated” and angry or upset about how VPB and I are reading you. This is not constructive.

[Andresvmb]

It’s funny, I can be guilty of this too. But I try my very best not to be openly hostile because when these arguments get heated to the point where there’s no turning back, and it actually contains both Town, Scum can so easily hide behind it.

I think my suspicion and vote are fair, to be fully transparent. But I also want to see some players that have not posted for a while come back and share some views.

[Andresvmb]

Perhaps people who have played with Icon before can weigh in and say if this is typical behavior.

*waves*

ico can get very annoyed at scumreads he considers unfair, it's not scum!indicative

your thoughts on andres?

Can you point me to a game where Ico has had this reaction? I was reading Smuggler’s Port (in which Ico was Town and survived until Endgame) and the way in which they approached the game and responded to some limited pressure seems very different to me.

[Andresvmb]

i mean, it is very different because very shortly after receiving said pressure, ico claimed Port Authority, which made him confirmed town, so... (also how do you miss that when the entire game was revolving around it?)

i can probably dig around our games later on, i'll get back to you.

I did not read the setup in detail - I was more looking for combativeness after a SR read. What I’m seeing in that game is a much more relaxed attitude in general, probing players who still don’t read Ico as Town with some light-hearted jabs.

[Andresvmb]

I’m keeping Testarossa, Datisi and VP Baltar in my Town pool, and I’m going to lay off Iconeum. Frankly, Testarossa’s deference to Datisi there, and my TR of both, means I am probably barking up the wrong tree.

I’m liking hellbooks and GB’s push on Snowblaze, so VOTE: Snowblaze. There’s not a whole lot of posts from hellbooks, but certainly a lot I can agree on. And Snowblaze’s ISO strikes me for sure as a lot of busy work, some empty questions, and no stances or reads. GB highlighted the relevant post from hellbooks in 307.

@Testarossa, the only thing I can say about why Ico might have pushed a Town slip type argument in favor of GB to go after NPOM is if Ico wanted some easy Town cred defending the guy most under pressure, who say Ico knows is Town. But now that I see this in writing, I will admit that I feel it’s a stretch. It would have been a lot easier to go after NPOM directly and not rely on a secondary read for it.

[Andresvmb]

@Andres - I see you think Icon is scummy and VP is town. You have any other reads?

See my last post above.

[Andresvmb]

why are they in your townpool lool

I can see that you disagree. To be honest, I don’t feel like explaining myself multiple times. It’s in my ISO. Definitely why I feel how I do about VPB and Testarossa is there. I also feel like Datisi has made a lot of valid points regarding Ico. It would be silly for me to ignore all of that.

[Andresvmb]

I’ll catch up more properly later I actually have to do some work today - just instinctively, I can’t say that I find DkKoba Scummy. I’ve hopped off Ico you all can see that. But the push seems obstinate and genuine. What’s the point of sticking out like that as Scum if the wagon is losing steam and you’re just attracting a lot of attention? Why not vote for someone who is barely here even? Does this really seem like the play of Scum?

[Andresvmb]

I’m not clearing DkKoba. But their entrance has been sarcastic from the very start. Just look at how they have been responding to my reads. And the self-voting is whatever. I have self-hammered while screaming for someone’s head as Town. Sometimes you have to do what you have to do to help the Team.

[Andresvmb]

sarcastic?

Specifically 323, 328. Also, drunk posting is more often than not Town posting

[Andresvmb]

In any case, not everybody wants to spend a tremendous amount of time explaining themselves. I have seen a lot of players simply act on instinct and vote. The objective is to suss out Scum, and yeah it’s usually better not to annoy other people so that your wagons succeed, but not everybody plays like that.

[Andresvmb]

Im probably gettimg pocketed by andrew but i need all the support i can get on the ico wagon

It’s Andrés. And why would I care about pocketing your slot? Everybody is hating on you haha

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba can you just quickly say why Snowblaze is Town?

[Andresvmb]

VOTE: Iconeum

[Andresvmb]

I am going back on this because to be honest DkKoba is a strong TR for me right now, and I have had doubts about this slot throughout. Again voting someone that is voting them and presuming that the self-vote is all that was needed to nail DkKoba as Scum just seem way off to me.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi who is the wolf on Ico? Let's wagon!

i do not know (◕︿◕✿) andres is giving me that big Pocketing Koba Vibes, and just, pointing out in 322 and 327 how he's probably barking up the wrong tree, how his townreads are townreading ico, how i'm making a lot of valid points (and also pointing out there's no longer voting ico in 507 for some reason?) and is just like that now back. however i'm not done talking to janko and he's kinda Not Here right now so it's a bit hard judge where his head's at.

So when I put out a read that has some caution because it’s not strong, I’m fencesitting. But when I put out a stronger TR, I’m pocketing?

You have been very strongly defending Ico, and that made me doubt myself. But I have also said multiple times that I really do think Ico is Scum. You aren’t really trying to get my motivation or look at things from my perspective. You just think you’re right and I’m wrong, and therefore I’m Scum. Well you’re wrong. And why are you surprised that I’m back voting a slot that I have been consistently arguing against?

[Andresvmb]

Ico has directly engaged people voting their slot to try and dissuade them not once, not twice, but three times! All in one day. Calling each and every one of those players Scum, and placing votes there immediately after facing pressure. This is not your typical Town play. I really don’t understand why this is all being dismissed as oh, but Town can also do that.

[Andresvmb]

Do you think it’s even remotely likely that three different players all on D1 would separately make arguments against one Town slot, at different times and without obvious coordination (I hate to point this out but I had already moved off you when DkKoba came in and started aggressively pushing you) and all those players be Scum? So why have you decided each and every time to attack the players who seem to have more openly suspected you early in the game, to the point where you’ve placed three different votes on those three different players? Could it be because you take votes as personal slights as Town and feel like you should push all those players? Maybe. I just think it’s more likely that this is Scum motivated - and a real fight for simple survival.

And what’s my Scum motivation for hopping back on your wagon exactly? I already know it’s not an easy choice. In fact it feels very annoying to have to do this. So why is my vote now finally revealing enough for Datisi to vote me? There’s so much resistance to this that honestly I almost can’t resist it. So yeah, that’s how I’m reading the situation.

[Andresvmb]

I’m just going to also state this because it’s becoming rather tedious - meta arguments from the player themselves are not convincing. Listen I’m not great at hunting Scum. I’m not. I’m far better I think at pointing out Town and figuring out the game collectively via process of elimination. And my gut is telling me that Dk is just Town. I just think they have the game broadly right. So that’s why I am where I am. But I’m not hiding behind Dk. If we are wrong then yeah I suspect it’ll cost me. And that’s fine. I’m really trying my best here.

[Andresvmb]

Okay but you’re getting in people’s faces only after they found a reason to vote you. That’s the interesting part. It’s not just that you’re confrontational right. Because if that was it then sure, that could be a good way of sorting alignment. Making people trip by rattling their cage can work. I’ve definitely seen it, though I’m not a big proponent of this because it’s just difficult to keep things under control.

[Andresvmb]

Asking how many Scum are in a game is not a bad question. I had a general sense for how many Scum - but site meta can vary. In my home site, Scum have such a bad record that games are Scum sided on purpose by Mods on average, with more Scum than you would typically expect. I get that this is the forum for more normal mechanics, but it’s still not ridiculous. And I don’t find it AI in any case.

[Andresvmb]

It’s difficult for me to trust that you will point at the correct AI things to read your slot by, wouldn’t you agree? So I’m using my past experience to look for things I typically see a certain category of players do (at least to start), and see if they’re pointing me in the right direction. Then I’ll see more information, and recalibrate. Obviously reading games where you’ve played might help, but people are also constantly correcting for what they perceive to be Scum tells so it’s not fool proof.

[Andresvmb]

645 is not about NPOM, who by the way is dropping in my rankings as they appear to be way too opportunistic for my liking. It was about VPB, me, and Dk.

[Andresvmb]

You’re overextending my argument and making it sound absurd. I never argued that you had “instantaneously” voted players after they voted you. That would so bad and obvious that only a terrible player would do that. But it’s a rather quick progression from seeing a vote against you to placing a vote on them.

What DkKoba is doing btw - of ignoring you because they strongly SR you. That’s totally expected. You can’t convince Scum that they’re Scum is the logic. Far more experienced players than me have consistently quoted this back at me.

[Andresvmb]

I really don’t see how you’re bleeding Town - I think that’s a terrible assessment. It’s fine if they want to excuse away some of what you’re doing because they’ve seen you do it elsewhere or whatever, but argue that it comes from certain Town... I’m going to disagree on that one.

[Andresvmb]

I think it’s not an accurate statement that DkKoba has not been engaging with Datisi. They’ve clearly exchanged views on other players (Testarossa for example, where they disagree). Datisi seems very set on their ways, and is completely unwilling to vote for you. Clearly DkKoba feels otherwise. Sometimes convincing one player is not worth the effort.

[Andresvmb]

I really don’t see how you’re bleeding Town - I think that’s a terrible assessment. It’s fine if they want to excuse away some of what you’re doing because they’ve seen you do it elsewhere or whatever, but argue that it comes from certain Town... I’m going to disagree on that one.

but i also don't see you engaging with aldus on why he's wrong or wright

why is that?

as for the bleeding town part... you'll have to ask him. But I think I know.

I’m not engaging Aldus on their read of you because we’re diametrically opposed, and they can read my reasoning and decide for themselves. I don’t have to fight every single player to come to my point of view. That would be far too exhausting.

[Andresvmb]

You know, the vast majority of games I play are short deadlines. Typically 48 hours, and rarely longer than 72 hours. So what I’m doing is I’m waiting on players to express themselves on the leading wagons of the game (that tend to form quickly), making a decision, and then re-ordering the game based on new information from the flip. I explain myself most of the time, but extensive case building just seems silly to me. This constant inflating and deflating of wagons is super tedious, and the vast majority of it is useless when sorting players. It’s the hard stances that matter, and the motivation behind them. For me, how people express themselves about the leading wagons and their reasoning is critical moving forward. I want to see that happen. This constant back and forth isn’t helpful. And I won’t figure out everyone’s alignment D1. But you can probe players once you have more information - and we just don’t have that yet.

[Andresvmb]

I wish I could say I had strong feelings about Snow either way but I don’t. I agreed with VPB’s general statement that Snow did not seem to be pushing the game forward all that much, but Snow is not completely devoid of opinions either.

[Andresvmb]

Also I’ve seen some posts from Datisi and Ico asking me about which points I was saying were good ones when argued against Ico being Scum (like 674). Well, the main point being argued for why Ico is Town is that a lot of the reactions we’re seeing here are from frustrated Town, and simply Ico’s personality (e.g. 469). I can’t dismiss this entirely right. I think DkKoba and VPB are Town. I know I’m Town. So all those “retaliatory” votes I’ll call them (my interpretation) don’t vibe well with me. But if it’s driven by personality (and I do rely on meta for a lot of my reads typically, though obviously hard to do in a game where I don’t know anyone), then I would think your read is more likely to be accurate than mine. And why do I Town Read you Datisi? Well, you have been probing me pretty hard over my views, and I think it has a lot to do with the fact that you don’t agree with me obviously. But despite you know voting me, I can’t say you have written me off or tunneled me, and it feels genuine.

[Andresvmb]

@Testarossa I don’t know what to make of Ico voting Snow. I’ll be honest - it’s entirely dependent on what Snow flips if they do. It’s a rarity that I get to call the Scum Team completely D1, so I’m not assuming that all of a sudden I got them both right and this is a bus. I doubt it. I haven’t gotten strong Scum vibes from Snow, but I can’t say I’m a huge fan of not taking any strong stances D1 at all. Snow is arguing that they are a cautious player. Sure. But you shouldn’t be surprised people SR that, since it’s a typical Scum position to take.

[Andresvmb]

@NPOM, I can’t square your 222, 224, 226 and 231 with your 679, which explains your vote on me. You were basically in total agreement with VPB and my early push on Ico, and then you turned around and voted me arguing that disagreed with my push on Ico, and said that you couldn’t see “the Town purpose” in 682. The last few posts I’m quoting came around when the wagon against me seemed to be building some steam, and the earlier ones came when the momentum was decidedly against Ico. Care to explain?

Of course, now you’re back to SR’ing Ico for jumping on Snow, who they had claimed a TR earlier on. How has the last sequence of events influenced your read on me?

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba you claimed to be playing 3D chess with your vote on Snow. Do you want to elaborate yet or no?

[Andresvmb]

Alright I’ll jump on this wagon.

VOTE: Testarossa

I prefer it over Snowblaze so that’s why.

[Andresvmb]

847 - @Snow, please explain how I’m “fence-sitting”. Please. I’m waiting.

{VPB, hellbooks, Me} as a Scum pool is, from my POV, pretty awful. And yeah, I’m still SR you Snow. But there’s too many TR’s being thrown your way from people I am TR’ing that I thought I would avoid your slot for now.

857 - @Testarossa I was somewhat swayed by the argument that you are being overly hedgy. I also find it interesting that you don’t seem to participate all that much in the game until you’ve been run up. And you’re right, it is a bit of a 180 since I did put you in my pool of players I would not vote for earlier. But much like Ico, I think it’s a personality thing - you’re careful and analytical from what I can tell, and I tend to TR that. But if I’m being honest, that’s primarily personality driven. Your 858 is valid, but I’m already suspecting NPOM and have repeatedly called him opportunistic, so I’m not surprised they voted you. You TR NPOM though (861) is, I would argue, kind of silly.

862 - you know, I have my convictions, but I’m also practical. There are some players I really wouldn’t vote right now [Datisi, VPB, DkKoba], and there are others that if enough of the people I am beginning to trust vote there, I will also.

And yeah, your Scum Pool is way too broad, so I’m fine with my vote. You have 7 players (865) in it, which is literally more than half the game.

The criticism about my “smooth” transition from Ico to Snow btw is quite ridiculous, given how hard I fought that fight just to get nowhere.

[Andresvmb]

Also, jankofan is Town. I feel like we’re vibing way too much for me to read janko any differently. Almost identical Scum Pools actually.

[Andresvmb]

I really don’t agree with 922 at all from you NPOM. And you never responded to my 832.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi I don’t even know what we’re talking about. I saw I think it was Testa I can check again refuse to claim. That’s it on claims as far as I know.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi I think most of what I’ve read from jankofan seemed pretty good. Is that specific post the only reason they are SR’ing NPOM? I would have to go back and check I don’t really know.

[Andresvmb]

And @NPOM arguing that my biggest issue with them is that their reads “progress” as the game moves along is... not particularly accurate.

[Andresvmb]

@NPOM what changed after your 922 that you decided to move away from Testarossa who is on the brink here? As in why would you decide to vote for someone who is less of a SR and who is less likely to flip currently? I also can’t figure that out.

[Andresvmb]

Oh and I did see that Snowblaze claimed VT okay I forgot about that for a minute.

I mean, fixating on that relatively minor detail is fine in my mind. I will agree that it’s a flimsy case on janko’s part. But we agree on way too many things for me to hyper focus on that one flimsy case.

[Andresvmb]

DkKoba I’m like almost sure NPOM is Scum.

[Andresvmb]

And Testa is a decent flip as far as I can tell.

[Andresvmb]

Yeah if we disagreed fundamentally on our view of the game and they put out a flimsy case on someone I was TR sure. But we very largely agree so I’m not too worried about it right now.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi They’re not trying to pocket me with their views. None of their views were thrown out as a response to anything I said. So why is that relevant?

[Andresvmb]

Yeah if we disagreed fundamentally on our view of the game and they put out a flimsy case on someone I was TR sure. But we very largely agree so I’m not too worried about it right now.

man i wish i was scum right now because pocketing you would be the easiest thing ever

the easiest thing for scum to do is to agree with someone, especially if they're wrong

like even you said that ico's reaction being more perosnality than alignment was a good point

And how little paranoia do you think I have that I would blindly follow a read through the end of the game despite updated information in the form of flips?

[Andresvmb]

Having similar views of the game is a very reasonable way of figuring out Town *if* you end up voting for Scum. Say we ended voting NPOM away and they flipped Scum. Would you really focus on jankofan immediately after, given how today has played out? Probably not right? This is my point. Right now, we agree almost exactly. And we haven’t discussed things amongst ourselves (I don’t recall shooting a post directed at janko yet or vice versa) and it has felt very organic from janko. So, that’s enough for me not to focus too much on that slot right now.

[Andresvmb]

Also, I’m ready for a flip at this point. I want to see if DkKoba is all he’s cranking themselves up to be hahaha

[Andresvmb]

They* my bad.

[Andresvmb]

I understand moving off of a wagon that you thought was bad after after seeing several people join it that you didn’t like. But that’s not what’s happened here at all. You joined it after DkKoba was already on it. He’s been the leading proponent this whole time! And your vote even came after I put a vote there, and you SR the slot (apparently you still do). This is theater. It’s terrible logic, and it’s giving me more reason to want to flip Testa and you.

[Andresvmb]

They* ugh I’m trying I swear.

[Andresvmb]

I will be more cautious from now on 2 mistakes is unacceptable. I’m sorry.

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba what do you make of GeorgeBailey’s lack of content so far?

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba what do you make of GeorgeBailey’s lack of content so far?

i think georgebailey is having a busy weekend and its not inherently AI

I just read through their ISO and it looks unusually empty, and I didn’t see a VLA announcement anywhere but I could have missed it. I definitely think we need more from GB.

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba I think you should give it some time (the Testa push). I can see your impatience and I feel the same way myself, but this is a decent wagon and getting people on NPOM might take some additional convincing, which will only delay things more.

[Andresvmb]

i realized what's bugging me about andres, he has a kinda weirdly similar posting talking style to one player i played with a few months ago that was scum... or like really really reminds me of him. this itself is not scum-indicative however. but it's making me uneasy. i will have to reread his iso soon...

dkkoba vs npom fight is very likely a big waste of time.

i want alduskkel and georgebailey to do more things.

This has got to be the worst reason that has ever been expressed for a Scum Read of my slot.

Also, I disagree completely that this NPOM/DkKoba fight has been a waste of time. Unless this is TvT (and I’m obviously not seeing it), you know almost for certain that they are not the same alignment. The taunting and the attacks don’t strike me as theater. I have already been thinking NPOM is independently Scummy - this just confirms my suspicions. The push on DkKoba there is hard to understand, and it’s filled with misrepresentations.

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba just thinking odds wise, how likely is it that Testarossa and Snow/Bob are both Scum? Not saying they couldn’t be, and I feel like you’re not the kind of player that would want to quantify what odds you give of either one flipping Scum, but which one are you more convinced about?

[Andresvmb]

Also I’m not even going to get into that episode from NPOM, because I don’t want to get banned or have a discussion that turns personal (and it wasn’t targeted at me). But I am a bit disturbed by it. It doesn’t belong in a mafia game.

[Andresvmb]

From my POV, NPOM, who is independently Scummy, seems to have less of an issue voting for Bob than Testa. If I was a betting man (and I am), I would be more inclined to think Testa has higher odds of flipping Scum.

[Andresvmb]

They have also completely disappeared after the wagon started gathering steam, almost to avoid saying anything that could be used to nail them.

[Andresvmb]

I’m not quite sure what you mean. Who are you saying is being a Town Leader?

[Andresvmb]

You cannot be influential if you aren’t finding Scum.

[Andresvmb]

I was SR Snow before and this entrance from Bob has not been particularly helpful (wagon analysis with no flips is worthless - I’m with VPB on that), so it’s not like I’m opposed to voting there. I just want to make sure we’re maximizing both chances of hitting Scum and information.

[Andresvmb]

I’m arguing the exact opposite. That’s... why I haven’t switched yet.

[Andresvmb]

They have both shaded my slot and voted me, I’ve had more of a direct confrontation with Snow but still SR both slots, but the buildup of Testa’s wagon was way more organic. Those first three votes are almost always Town if they flip Scum.

[Andresvmb]

Just explained it.

[Andresvmb]

I might also move off your back a little bit @NPOM if Testa flips Town and you’re just the Scummiest Town that ever Towned. So this helps avoid a mis-yeet later in the game.

[Andresvmb]

You know, not everything is completely tangible. But if you’re just looking for giant cases on people then sure.

[Andresvmb]

VOTE: Bob

[Andresvmb]

VPB is already on Bob.

[Andresvmb]

Claiming a PR is complicated and reeks of Scum most of the time. It would have gotten Snow killed pretty quickly.

[Andresvmb]

You also open yourself up for a CC, which you probably want to avoid so early in the game.

[Andresvmb]

I mean it’s not complicated really. I don’t even understand why you would try and argue that a VT claim near death makes you Town.

[Andresvmb]

Can somebody please point where I said I would have been happy to vote for a PR claim? You’re the one that reeks of Scum making broad generalizations without even reading the game. A PR claim near death (particularly unprompted because nobody indicated they would hammer) would have been suspicious, and could have accelerated momentum against them. This also could be entirely related to site meta. Whatever.

[Andresvmb]

Can somebody please point where I said I would have been happy to vote for a PR claim? You’re the one that reeks of Scum making broad generalizations without even reading the game. A PR claim near death (particularly unprompted because nobody indicated they would hammer) would have been suspicious, and could have accelerated momentum against them. This also could be entirely related to site meta. Whatever.

So if teh slot i had repped into had been a town pr rather than a vt. And snow had claimed that would you have still wanted him day one?

Like everything, it depends on the claim and the player. I’m not into making absolute claims I don’t see the value.

[Andresvmb]

Bob can die for all I care. They are hard SR VPB and me but voting Janko.

[Andresvmb]

I will say that Janko as a counterwagon to Bob is probably more revealing than Testa (the game seems almost broken into 2 at this point). So that’s a positive. Other than that I think I’ll stay put.

[Andresvmb]

We need 2 more votes.

[Andresvmb]

@Alduskkel, vote Bob so that we get this one through. I can’t say I care about this Janko push and I really can’t figure out this game without seeing a flip at this point. And I don’t know why wherever Ico runs to, Datisi follows.

[Andresvmb]

I don’t even have to read too much into the replace in/out to make a decision. I’m taking the IRL reason at face value. I don’t like questioning players when they express an out of game reason for a decision - only they know is that’s actually the case. But it has nothing to do with that for me. Bob just called me hard Scum with VPB, but for whatever reason decided neither one of us was worth pushing, and settled on Janko. Why? Convenience. It’s probably an easier kill. And look! Janko has been run up to the point where the wagons are tied. Well, I’m certainly not moving, and I’m tired of all the indecision. Make up your minds already.

[Andresvmb]

Right, because I said you have no reasoning of your own Datisi.

I think Janko has a lot less content, so is an easier push. And is nowhere near as aggressive at defending themselves (that seems obvious in light of the last 4 pages), so people might be more inclined to switch over there and not feel bad about it. Well, I don’t see Janko flipping Scum so I’m not voting there. Good luck getting that one through.

[Andresvmb]

And yeah, in this case it’s more of Ico following Datisi rather than the other way around. But you two are already hard Town reading each other, and are now voting in tandem, so I’m not surprised. I’m not implying you are both Scum here btw. Just to be clear. And this might be tremendously helpful if you two are correctly trusting each other. But I have my view of the game, and Janko does not fit as Scum for me. That’s all.

[Andresvmb]

I will admit that if by the end of the game Ico turns out to be Town, I’ll be somewhat surprised. And impressed that players were completely able to figure out that Ico is Town since D1. Because that is probably the read I am struggling with the most.

[Andresvmb]

DkKoba if you’re screwing with me, I’m going to eventually figure you out. You’re my strongest TR right now though, so just keep doing what you’re doing.

[Andresvmb]

@NPOM DkKoba is not bad Town. They are either Town (and putting Scum in a corner) or Scum here. And as you can tell, I’m leaning hard towards Town. Let’s see what happens.

[Andresvmb]

Datisi, do you know snow IRL?

no, i just saw [stuff] but can't talk about it

Ico & Datisi - do you town read the Bob slot or you just think janko is scum for changing reads on it?

i literally said i think bob is being townie

Right, because I said you have no reasoning of your own Datisi.

I think Janko has a lot less content, so is an easier push. And is nowhere near as aggressive at defending themselves (that seems obvious in light of the last 4 pages), so people might be more inclined to switch over there and not feel bad about it. Well, I don’t see Janko flipping Scum so I’m not voting there. Good luck getting that one through.

what does it matter who is an easier push or not??? like if i wanted an easy push with no content i'd go george or aldus like tf is this post even saying?

You’re great at throwing shade, not great at trying to think through what others are saying if it remotely conflicts with what you’re saying.

It shows no conviction. That’s why it matters. If you’re a hard Scum Read for me, you bet I’m going to be pushing you as hard as I can, and actually keeping my vote there. Bob said I “reeked of Scum”, but votes Janko? It’s total BS.

And who is arguing that this applies to you? You aren’t even reading it in context. I’m arguing that Janko was a far easier push

for Bob

(instead of VPB or me), which explains the vote. Now, others have aligned there.

[Andresvmb]

@Andres should I take DKK's softclaim at face value or do you think there's a chance they're bad town or scum?

I don’t read that as a soft claim. I’m not going to speculate otherwise - you can ask DkKoba what they meant.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi And no I’m not here to argue Mafia theory. You think I’m wrong, that’s fine by me. Bob’s argument towards me was crap - and I think was Scum motivated. I also think it’s Scum motivated not to want to push that case too hard (despite saying I reek of Scum and that I’m a hard SR), but voting Janko. That’s just my perspective.

[Andresvmb]

Why you pressing me on this? Our reads align, so im confused by why you need more details. I drew a different conclusion from the wagon, but here's what I'm confused about. We had two flash wagons in a matter of days with alot of overlap on the people on it. Snow/Bob was first, you were second. Im looking more at wagon composition in drawing my conclusion. I dont see how scum drove one and not the other with as much overlap as was there.

Honestly I'm more confused by you asking for more detail from me on what was obviously more a gut read than anything else (dude had been here for like 5 pages) when my read aligned with yours.

I dont see how from town!Test's perspective, you look at 2 flash wagons with a decent bit of overlap and not think they're scum influenced.

Because our reads align and I am not town on you I am interested in it. It didn't looked to me like a gut read with meaning that his entrance fits into his town persona sounded to me like you know more about him. Anyway no use in hairsplitting either.

I don't know how you reach that last conclusion. Literally half of my wagon ended up on bob, why do you think I am avoiding that wagon and even joined the counterwagon? (my reads on bob and janko aside)

Billy’s point is a good one btw. Say Bob flipped Town. I wouldn’t then join a wagon on Testa, precisely because of wagon composition. Repeating the same formula on both players and thinking you would get a different result would be kind of silly.

[Andresvmb]

I’m running the risk of reading too much into it, but I do understand Billy’s argument and I agree. If you read what DkKoba is saying, they are arguing a version of this too (if Bob flips Town, they have stated unequivocally that they would go after VPB).

[Andresvmb]

Anyway, can someone die already? @GeorgeBailey @Alduskkel are you guys playing the game or just spectating?

[Andresvmb]

@Mod can we get a vote count?

[Andresvmb]

No I think they’re both E-1.

[Andresvmb]

If @Alduskkel hammers either, I’m not going to complain. I think we have enough - I don’t need another 10 pages of discussion as to why NPOM is actually the correct execution.

[Andresvmb]

Though for consistency sake, @Aduskkel Bob is better. Just sayin’.

[Andresvmb]

Datisi, do you know snow IRL?

no, i just saw [stuff] but can't talk about it

Ico & Datisi - do you town read the Bob slot or you just think janko is scum for changing reads on it?

i literally said i think bob is being townie

Right, because I said you have no reasoning of your own Datisi.

I think Janko has a lot less content, so is an easier push. And is nowhere near as aggressive at defending themselves (that seems obvious in light of the last 4 pages), so people might be more inclined to switch over there and not feel bad about it. Well, I don’t see Janko flipping Scum so I’m not voting there. Good luck getting that one through.

what does it matter who is an easier push or not??? like if i wanted an easy push with no content i'd go george or aldus like tf is this post even saying?

You’re great at throwing shade, not great at trying to think through what others are saying if it remotely conflicts with what you’re saying.

It shows no conviction. That’s why it matters. If you’re a hard Scum Read for me, you bet I’m going to be pushing you as hard as I can, and actually keeping my vote there. Bob said I “reeked of Scum”, but votes Janko? It’s total BS.

And who is arguing that this applies to you? You aren’t even reading it in context. I’m arguing that Janko was a far easier push

for Bob

(instead of VPB or me), which explains the vote. Now, others have aligned there.

With this logic, why arent you voting NPOM for doing the same think by having Testa low in the scum reads (2nd most scum) then not voting them as the wagon was building, and stubbornly sitting off until the wagon deflated then voting there to appease Koba. Like why the fuck doesn't anyone see what i do with NPOM.

I have expressed mighty skepticism of the NPOM slot. At this point, I’m not willing to move. We can discuss tomorrow based on execution and flip.

[Andresvmb]

@Billy Your lack of discipline is infuriating. You’re basically condemning Jankofan because you couldn’t get what you wanted initially. And I’m a bit surprised that DkKoba is acting this way. You may as well vote for Jankofan. Helping disintegrate the counterwagon at this stage is as good as a death sentence. Just vote Janko then and end this.

[Andresvmb]

Janko has 6 votes, and so did Bob. What I’m looking for at this stage is for people to vote between the two. Unless you can literally convince everyone on Bob to switch over to NPOM, what makes you think you’ll succeed?

[Andresvmb]

As a defensive move, NPOM could just hammer Janko. And then what are you going to argue? That they’re Scum because they did not vote for themselves?

[Andresvmb]

Wait did you move out of Janko. Ah never mind haha I thought you were on Bob. My bad carry on.

[Andresvmb]

@Alduskkel VOTE FOR BOB AND LET’S GET MOVING.

[Andresvmb]

@Alduskkel is that you signaling an intent to hammer?

[Andresvmb]

Uhm, this is risky business with NPOM outside of Janko right now.

[Andresvmb]

Let’s see what this flips I guess.

@hellbooks I reek of opportunism? Right because I voted for Janko. Oh wait.
@DkKoba I think I’m decent Scum actually when I try. This is not it.

[Andresvmb]

if janko flips scum then andres is probscum

I’m Town. I don’t care what Janko flips. And if you misread me it’s entirely on you.

[Andresvmb]

??? i didnt say i sr u

Haha well you’re saying I might be pocketing you.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi, can you explain why you seem so certain that Bob is Town?

[Andresvmb]

i'm actually fairly confident both EoD wagons are town. janko's wagon took a fair bit of pushing to go through. if bob were scum, i think his buddies would've joined me in pushing janko much sooner.

that's why i thought georgebailey was scum. his late vote on janko (and janko flipping town) made me think that scum was pushing both wagons ~equally, and his vote seemed like the least committed one. but, uhhh... guess i was wrong.

Because I cannot make sense of this. Scum clearly were not pushing both wagons equally, yes? I think Bob would have died far more easily if that had been the case.

[Andresvmb]

If anything I'm towny. This is just confbias.

The only read that GeorgeBailey expressed that

could

have gotten them killed is that Ico v. NPOM was TvT early in the game. Otherwise, GeorgeBailey was mostly a null read for me. I don't know why Scum seem somewhat content with the state of the game, but I would argue that they are with that kill. Anyway, speculating about the NK is not going to be that helpful.

I am also not that interested in flipping NPOM today (though I have a feeling it's eventually going to happen). I think Billy's push for today is wrong, and NPOM is mis-execution bait. I am also not particularly interested in following Datisi who was saying that Janko was Scum since 908 (and I am purposefully ignoring Datisi's vote there on 690).

[Andresvmb]

the second paragraph is an afterthought that might be wrong. george's position on janko wagon made me think he was a likely scum candidate. obviously that's now proven wrong.

my point is, if bob were scum, what were his scumbuddies doing? looking at me screaming at janko the entirety of day one, only for that wagon to barely go through? i don't think that's likely. if they were committed to bussing bob, bob would've died. if they were actually trying to save him, i would've gotten more support earlier. i think the game didn't care too much which one of the two wagons got through. hence TvT.

I am really not buying this. There was clearly a lot of caring which wagon went through otherwise one of Testarossa / Bob would have died. Janko was a late wagon that was built on the back of Bob hard SR VPB and me, and then voting Janko by joining you Datisi. You will excuse me if I have some skepticism as to any interpretation of what happened yesterday that assumes that you are sure Town.

[Andresvmb]

oh, you weren't interested in following me yesterday either, don't say that like it's something new.

And you can at least own up to you being quite wrong, instead of responding with these snide remarks.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway, I think I need to re-read the game in light of the information that we have, and see if I should be re-evaluating my view of the game.

[Andresvmb]

the second paragraph is an afterthought that might be wrong. george's position on janko wagon made me think he was a likely scum candidate. obviously that's now proven wrong.

my point is, if bob were scum, what were his scumbuddies doing? looking at me screaming at janko the entirety of day one, only for that wagon to barely go through? i don't think that's likely. if they were committed to bussing bob, bob would've died. if they were actually trying to save him, i would've gotten more support earlier. i think the game didn't care too much which one of the two wagons got through. hence TvT.

See, this is strong analysis on the wagons NPOM, and explains a likely tvt situation.

You taking wagon analysis at face value from the person that was instrumental in driving the execution of a Town player is baffling to me. Anyway I already think you are somewhat suspect so, it does not matter all that much.

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba are you really certain that Datisi is Town here?

[Andresvmb]

I am not interested in flipping DkKoba, VPB, hellbooks, or Alduskkel today to be totally honest. I think GB could have been read as a PR, but I think it has more to do with a few things - it makes hellbooks look somewhat bad (look at the anti-vanguard post in 1676), and it eliminates an early voter on Snowblaze/Bob, who switched towards the end of the Day onto Janko. Funny enough, I have a voice on the back of my head telling me that Ico has been completely pocketed by Datisi, and I am suspect of Billy + Bob. I can't quite make my mind up about Testarossa yet.

Still, what makes most sense to me right now is probably VOTE: Bob. But frankly, I wish this had happened yesterday, because I would have a much better sense of whether we are remotely on the right track. Now, it's a gamble, and though I am openly disagreeing with Datisi's wagon analysis of the situation, it's still

plausible

.

[Andresvmb]

the second paragraph is an afterthought that might be wrong. george's position on janko wagon made me think he was a likely scum candidate. obviously that's now proven wrong.

my point is, if bob were scum, what were his scumbuddies doing? looking at me screaming at janko the entirety of day one, only for that wagon to barely go through? i don't think that's likely. if they were committed to bussing bob, bob would've died. if they were actually trying to save him, i would've gotten more support earlier. i think the game didn't care too much which one of the two wagons got through. hence TvT.

See, this is strong analysis on the wagons NPOM, and explains a likely tvt situation.

You taking wagon analysis at face value from the person that was instrumental in driving the execution of a Town player is baffling to me. Anyway I already think you are somewhat suspect so, it does not matter all that much.

I'm so baffled by people immediately scumreading someone that drove a kill on a townie. Youre aware that town dont know people's alignment outside some type of pr situation. So yeah, town do drive mis-executions, and usually its town driving those misexecutions. It's more often scum that are on for the ride. Because obviously the reasoning was strong enough that other people came along, which means it was genuine and not bullshit.

And Datisi isn't back in this thread brashly pushing for another kill. She's taking the "L". The players that shade people for pushing cases on people that flip town, that always pings me hard. And you've been pushing Bob fairly hard. If bob flips town, by your logic should we be coming for your head tomorrow? And how are we gonna do that when Koba's been pushing hard for Bob too?

This is why this logic is trash and I hate it.

Wait, have I "immediately scumread" Datisi? I SR you for taking analysis from a player that was visibly wrong in a big way at face value. Yeah Town players get things wrong all the time (if Town players got things right all the time then Scum would never win, and that's obviously not the case). If Bob flips Town, you are free to come at me all you want and bash my analysis. I never claimed to be a savant - I am just trying to sort what's happening as best as I can.

[Andresvmb]

it makes hellbooks look somewhat bad (look at the anti-vanguard post in 1676)

can you explain

I don't actually think you are Scum btw. I was just saying that if Scum have any incentive to nuke GB here, it might be to make you look less Towny. On the other hand, I find it somewhat unlikely that you would encourage your Team to nuke one of the players you were openly skeptical of. I mean, didn't most other people have GB null to positive?

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba are you really certain that Datisi is Town here?

andres, this lowkey felt like shade. can you elaborate on your read on me?

It is not shade, it is doubt. I felt you were coming from a Town mindset D1, and a lot of players have almost placed you in their solid Town buckets and moved on. You had an insistent push on a player that was Town, yes, but more importantly, you felt the need to consistently downplay or question my TR of that player. So that's what is raising my antenna. And now, you seem to be arguing via wagon analysis that Bob is Town. Bob called VPB and me hard Scum, and voted for Town. And the NK had Snowblaze/Bob as Scum early. Why are you siding with that player? And how do you read my slot then?

[Andresvmb]

i mean, the NK also read janko as scum and pretty much tipped the wagon there. and was very lurky that people were suspecting. like GB probably got killed because of a failed PR snipe attempt, not because anyone was afraid of him convincing the town to vote here or there.

yeah, i felt the need to question your TR of him because i didn't agree with it. i still don't agree with it. yeah i know he flipped town. if i were placed in the same situation again, i'd be hard pushing for his head again.

why should the fact that bob called baltar/you scum be a point for turning against bob? i know it doesn't seem like it from your PoV, but i'm not townreading you. obviously my reads were going wrong somewhere when my strongest scumread flipped green, but that doesn't mean i'm flipping all my other reads upside down immediately.

I am not surprised that you are SR me, since you were also SR Janko. But being so hilariously wrong

should

make you question some of your reads. And how can you not agree with it? Janko

was

Town. It does not even look like you are arguing I was TMI'ing the slot.

I do not like speculating about the NK too much because it is really hard to get into the heads of an entire Team without any Scum flips. So I am not going to push that argument further. I have my view and you have yours.

[Andresvmb]

if ur town, scum know they aren't getting you lynched

if ur scum, GB is a fairly safe kill, while having me seriously pocketed

otoh, if ur town, a townflip on you would solidify your townread you had in me and i think scum have me on their mislynch list lol

i hate wifom

Also, @Iconeum this is quite Towny. Turning around and questioning Datisi here would be difficult for you to do as Scum, or if you were Partners. So I will be the first to recognize that I probably had you wrong.

[Andresvmb]

the second paragraph is an afterthought that might be wrong. george's position on janko wagon made me think he was a likely scum candidate. obviously that's now proven wrong.

my point is, if bob were scum, what were his scumbuddies doing? looking at me screaming at janko the entirety of day one, only for that wagon to barely go through? i don't think that's likely. if they were committed to bussing bob, bob would've died. if they were actually trying to save him, i would've gotten more support earlier. i think the game didn't care too much which one of the two wagons got through. hence TvT.

See, this is strong analysis on the wagons NPOM, and explains a likely tvt situation.

You taking wagon analysis at face value from the person that was instrumental in driving the execution of a Town player is baffling to me. Anyway I already think you are somewhat suspect so, it does not matter all that much.

I'm so baffled by people immediately scumreading someone that drove a kill on a townie. Youre aware that town dont know people's alignment outside some type of pr situation. So yeah, town do drive mis-executions, and usually its town driving those misexecutions. It's more often scum that are on for the ride. Because obviously the reasoning was strong enough that other people came along, which means it was genuine and not bullshit.

And Datisi isn't back in this thread brashly pushing for another kill. She's taking the "L". The players that shade people for pushing cases on people that flip town, that always pings me hard. And you've been pushing Bob fairly hard. If bob flips town, by your logic should we be coming for your head tomorrow? And how are we gonna do that when Koba's been pushing hard for Bob too?

This is why this logic is trash and I hate it.

Wait, have I "immediately scumread" Datisi? I SR you for taking analysis from a player that was visibly wrong in a big way at face value. Yeah Town players get things wrong all the time (if Town players got things right all the time then Scum would never win, and that's obviously not the case). If Bob flips Town, you are free to come at me all you want and bash my analysis. I never claimed to be a savant - I am just trying to sort what's happening as best as I can.

So whats your read of her? Because shading me for agreeing with her analysis only makes sense if youre at scum!Datisi. She was wrong on her read of a player. That game state read makes a hell of alot of sense to me. And I'm owning it so you can take me to task for it.

You're right, she was wrong, in a very visible way. So whats my scum motivation for agreeing with that? That only makes sense if I'm partners with bob and trying to protect him right? And in that case, given that I could be easily pushing for a Datisi mis-elim is the team the three of us? What exactly are you getting at if youre not scumreading Datisi here? Because this seems real hedgey except with respect to you finding me to be an easy push? And what is suspect here? You allegedly had interest in joining me on a NPOM push yesterday. Still have interest there or you just back on Bob?

No, it doesn’t just make sense if I’m at Scum!Datisi. It also makes sense if you

know

Datisi is wrong about Bob (and Town) and want to get away with another mis-execution in NPOM. And yes, you could very well be partnered with Bob and protecting them. But I hate associative reads when we don’t have the information. Flipping Bob makes sense for a variety of different reasons. It helps me solidify my reads completely of VPB and to a lesser extent DkKoba (who is still solidly Town in my book). If Bob flips Scum that is. It also helps clear NPOM somewhat and maybe avoid a mis-execution there. It also sinks you Billy, or at the very least leaves you solidly in the POE.

I’ve said this repeatedly and I’ll say it again. I don’t think I am skilled enough to point at the Scum Team D1 or even here early D2. But I am very skeptical of Bob right now and I strongly believe the slot needs to flip. I fully concede I could be wrong. But I would rather know that, and flipping NPOM just does not do it for me.

[Andresvmb]

But what I do want to see is more opinions from {Alduskkel, hellbooks, Testarossa}. These players are sitting solidly in the middle for me and I can’t say with any confidence what they are. Alduskkel and hellbooks are more of a Town Read than anything but still.

[Andresvmb]

Quick skim at work because lol

Andres is town af right now and I'm loving it.

My read is also GB was a PR shot as Andres said. Works out in our favor given he wasn't.

VOTE: Bob

Called it yesterday and I remain correct.

I will concede that Datisi was the first person if I recall correctly to suggest that GB was a PR hunting shot. I can see that, and I added a few other elements which might have also come into play. GB was a null read for me so it definitely wasn’t because they were super engaged with the game or had excellent reads.

[Andresvmb]

I don't really believe in scum bobot.

Playing with it hypothetically though, I doubt all three scum were on the janko wagon. Ico was on the Snow wagon with his backstab and if Snow would have flipped red and people would have looked for a bus Ico's vote is literally the first one people look into. I think Datisi is town, leaving Billy/Aldus. Ok, these actually work.

However the nk was on the janko wagon, so if all three were there they would be sawing the very same branch, they are sitting on. (they have to assume that possible investigatives would also target that wagon)

So someone would have bussed the hell out of Snow/bob. Baltar isn't playing around, he wants him dead af, doesn't feel like a bus.
Koba would have bussed Snow (like Ico) into a worthless VT claim (so doubt too), leaving Andres/NPOM again. So kind of overlapping with bobtown scenario. But again both are going straight for bob's head on D2. What's the big payoff for the bus here? They all were on me (town) and could have switched to janko (town), but instead decided to bus again when everything was so close? I am not getting it.

I understand why you might reach the conclusion that because the wagon replicated itself on two players, and one of them was you, that you think it’s composed of some Scum. But neither one of you is dead. You’re both still here. So why should anyone pay attention to this?

[Andresvmb]

Who is powers?

[Andresvmb]

I guess NPOM?

[Andresvmb]

You know, I was almost convinced NPOM was Scum yesterday. I still have the nagging feeling that it’s the wrong flip today. I can’t possibly justify going after VPB without seeing Bob’s flip first, and Aduskkel I am mostly meh about and don’t think their hammer screamed of Scum (which Ico pointed out already). I think Bob’s POE is hot garbage.

[Andresvmb]

And this defense that oh, why didn’t I kill one of the people that was SR me applies to virtually anybody here. Who was GB even Scum Reading? Can someone remind me? Because no one is even paying any attention to GB’s reads at all (and GB had a vote for Snowblaze and was SR the slot early).

[Andresvmb]

Do I think VPB and Bob are S/S? No I think it’s unlikely. VPB had two people on their list most of D1, and where loudly calling for Snowblaze’s/Bob’s head. It’s a mightily unnecessary bus, and that’s made even more obvious by the fact that there were so many potential executions yesterday.

[Andresvmb]

I mean according to Bob, the only Scum on Janko was the hammer? Is that the argument. C’mon now.

[Andresvmb]

I don’t want to have to say this, since I TR VPB otherwise, but what are the chances that Datisi’s claim is accurate, and VPB was tracked to GB, but they did not commit the NK?

[Andresvmb]

@VPB I think I see where I’m going wrong - you haven’t claimed to be a 1-shot right?

[Andresvmb]

Yeah if so, VPB is going to resolve itself. I wouldn’t touch it.

[Andresvmb]

And Scum isn’t coming out and making these silly claims, so we can clear Datisi.

The way I see it, Bob is an even better execution right now. We know VPB is making a genuine push, and Bob’s POE looks even worse.

[Andresvmb]

What? Where do you disagree?

[Andresvmb]

Because they’re independently Scummy, and had hard SR’s on a PR and me. Do you not remember? They’ve voted for Town, have argued against Town, and have a terrible POE. Either they are the worst player on the planet, or are Scum.

[Andresvmb]

I don’t know man. I mean who are we supposed to be pushing here? If I exclude DkKoba, Datisi, VPB, Iconeum by default, and Alduskkel as a soft TR, who is even left? There’s ~3 Scum in NPOM/Testarossa/Bob/Billy. I mean, we’re going to hit Scum almost always unless we’re awful.

[Andresvmb]

I’m forgetting hellbooks there but I also don’t see Scum there.

[Andresvmb]

Pushing hellbooks here does not make sense - hellbooks was on Bob, not Janko. Not arguing I would never revisit, but in all seriousness, it’s not a good push after D1 and all this information.

[Andresvmb]

The likelihood that the Janko wagon was Scum motivated just went through the roof too. How is Bob not correct here? I wish I had a lot of history with you guys, because I would know who to bounce off all of the paranoia in my head with.

[Andresvmb]

I take it you guys don’t think Iconeum could fool Datisi so badly? Can anybody comment on that?

[Andresvmb]

And yeah, Datisi/VPB are never S/S. Makes no sense. They can easily get a mis-execution of Bob if they are and don’t have to resort to any of the claims. Datisi can just come in and begin attacking Bob as the counter-wagon, and I don’t think a lot of us even blink. Now all of the mental gymnastics with the wagons from Datisi make sense. If you think you have a guilty, I can see how you would push that worldview.

I’m calling it a day for now, but I’m very interested to see some reactions from others.

[Andresvmb]

And my vote is already on Bob.

[Andresvmb]

If we flip hellbooks over Bob or even NPOM, I’m going to bang my head against a wall.

[Andresvmb]

Least y'all can do for me is yeet Bob. You fucked my game after all

This is correct. Anybody not voting Bob right now should be ashamed of themselves.

Also I’m reading back just to make sure I didn’t miss anything. I still strongly TR Koba don’t get me wrong, but I’m not understanding the urge to lockTown Bob

after

the claims had been cleared up (1984), or so dramatically change their read on Testarossa (1986). The reason Koba started SR’ing Testarossa you’ll remember is because Testarossa was writing long paragraphs while not saying much of value (I am paraphrasing, see 570, 601). Testarossa has not changed their style at all, and is coming in sporadically with long-winded posts (mostly to defend Bob in light of the claims if my memory serves right - will read through that section again in a minute), but Koba is not seeing it the same. Which is odd, not going to lie.

[Andresvmb]

Whatever NPOM said in 2017 makes me want to shoot myself. But this is the issue - I now fully understand why VPB was making the argument early in the game that NPOM is mis-execution bait. There’s just too many posts that don’t make sense. But, the reason I’m being cautious about flipping that slot is because of posts like 1824. For

some

, probably idiotic reason, I find Scum have a hard time responding in this way. If you’re Scum, you’re far more likely to respond when faced with that question with a hypothetical Scum motivation. Anyway, I think Koba’s comment is true - NPOM does not appear to be operating with full information.

[Andresvmb]

I heartily endorse 2090 and 2092. I’m glad we didn’t flip Ico.

2101 is a horrendous post. And I’ll detail exactly why - what you don’t want to do as Town is lock yourself for multiple days in advance. You lack information! You don’t know what will happen, what roles will be revealed, who will flip or be NK’ed. You just don’t. So why telegraph to the Scum what you intend to do if certain things fall into place? Ridiculous. Take it one step at a time, and adjust.

2113 is just not how Scum reveal themselves. You will not find a Scum Team (that has managed to be almost universally TR btw!) play a gambit amongst themselves D2 that leaves them in a much worse position.

[Andresvmb]

2129 - I’m not trying to equivocate here. I really do believe Bob is Scum. However, I do feel that your read of my slot should not be

entirely

based on what Bob flips. I now have enough posts here where you can see my thinking process. If you think I’m coming at this game with a Scum mindset, then I’m going to be a little disappointed.

Also, Bob is almost completely avoiding saying anything that drives attention to him - just look at 2134 or 2152. He’s not even trying to defend his POE anymore, which is almost surely worthless. These posts are all reinforcing what’s been concluded around the claims, and questioning NPOM’s logic which is clearly bad. Bad logic isn’t an indicator of Scum though, unfortunately.

[Andresvmb]

2165 - man, this is a bad list. I’m going to just completely ignore it.

2187 - I agree with Datisi’s point here, which was essentially made by Ico early in the day. I am maintaining my soft TR of Alduskkel, even though he insists on going after NPOM (who deserves to remain on the POE, of course) over Bob.

2193 - YES! If VPB is Scum this game, I’ll actually be very impressed.

[Andresvmb]

I don’t have a strong read of Alduskkel either way, but I’m going to guess that most of the analysis on 2210 is broadly accurate, primarily because Datisi (who is likely Town) would strongly come out after Alduskkel if the conclusion was way off. So even if Aduskkel is operating with TMI, Ico remains likely Town.

[Andresvmb]

Tl;dr - Bob = Scum. Yeet now.

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba why are you so afraid to hammer Bob? You have been SR the slot for a while as far as I can tell, and nobody is going to convince me that Bob’s play today has been the paragon of Town. Let’s just do it and get on with it. I do feel like we’re just circling around it for no good reason. Ico has made the point already - we either do this now or just TR the slot the rest of the way. And you’ll have to execute me before I let this one go.

[Andresvmb]

We can wait for Bob to cloud the thread with nonsense if you want, that’s all fine. What I don’t want to see happen is the same thing that happened D1, where people began moving away from potentially useful executions and onto Town purely because the day kept dragging.

[Andresvmb]

I was reading some of his games actually - I don’t disagree at all that he’s a good Town player. Which is exactly why my skepticism of the slot is so high. He misread the game to the point where his hard SR’s were a PR and me (and I obviously know my alignment but none of you can really know for certain), and helped flip the wagon onto a Town player D1. Not to say Bob is proficient to the point of never making any mistakes (the most recent game I was reading where he was on, he missed Scum multiple times). But still!

I will also point out that Bob is also decent Scum (based on a quick read of his most recent Scum game where he won and lived through the entire game). Giving a player like that the opportunity to skate away from an execution is a dangerous proposition.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi, you see what is happening though right? Bob could easily tie it by voting his counterwagon, leaving the decision in the hands of Testarossa. If you think Bob is the better flip, I would consider Unvoting and waiting for Bob to answer whatever questions you posed.

[Andresvmb]

Alright let’s go down this path @Datisi. Since you are TR’ing Bob, who would you say is Scum, and pushing the Town in the wrong direction? You must have a theory if you’re arriving at the conclusion that you can save the Town from screwing up again.

[Andresvmb]

Alduskkel is not even on Bob right now, so that’s why this push seems rather odd.

[Andresvmb]

Call me erratic if you will, but by any logical analysis I'm one of the townier players in the game. Billy has pressured almost no one but me the who game and Datasi is clearly OMGUSing me after leading a town lynch yesterday. My wagon is scum driven.

I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but even though I’m somewhat defending you here, you are NOT one of the townier players in the game. Please.

[Andresvmb]

Call me erratic if you will, but by any logical analysis I'm one of the townier players in the game. Billy has pressured almost no one but me the who game and Datasi is clearly OMGUSing me after leading a town lynch yesterday. My wagon is scum driven.

I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but even though I’m somewhat defending you here, you are NOT one of the townier players in the game. Please.

I'm not one to look a gift horse in the mouth but it looks like you're trying to keep me alive to lynch me later on. If you think I'm scum why not say so?

I’m not trying to keep you alive to execute you later. I’m trying to execute Scum. That’s all I care about. If you end up making yourself obvScum trust me I will come for your head.

[Andresvmb]

Andres' instistance on getting Bob lynched is looking kinda scummy.

I really wish you would think before posting nonsense like this. I have given you my POE. I have listed my reads, clearly and transparently. I am insistent precisely because of players like you that just move with the wind.

[Andresvmb]

You can suspect me all you want. But once the game is over, look back and realize what it is that you did wrong and why. Otherwise you’ll always make pushes that are anti-Town. The fact that you can’t tell what my alignment is but can conclusively state that Bob is Town is plain awful. Why would I care AT ALL to defend you if I’m Scum? I would just keep ignoring you, push you if I have to, and get you easily executed.

Is there some ambiguity as to Bob’s alignment? Sure. But from reading Bob’s Town game, he’s usually feisty, expresses a lot of meta reads, and tries to build a sense of how the game stacks up. He literally just wrote that an execution of his slot is not awful. And then there’s a lot of hedging regarding Alduskkel who is building up as the alternative wagon (by stating that Alduskkel always votes Janko there as Scum, but could also be Town since that was a SR).

I don’t even care if you all flip Alduskkel. I have a light TR there. But how in the world is this a more reasonable push than Bob I have no idea.

[Andresvmb]

^for NPOM.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi 2048.

[Andresvmb]

Just vote whatever you want. I don’t have any ability to convince anybody else where to vote, and I’m not confident enough to be certain who is Scum. I will say, I don’t think I’m going to move. Bob is putting some content out there and though there’s some overlapping TR’s, he is TR’ing Billy which I don’t agree with.

[Andresvmb]

@Alduskkel from your ISO, what I see is that you’ve had a solid TR of Ico which has remained consistent, a reasonably solid SR of NPOM which has also been somewhat consistent, and you acted upon your suspicion of Janko (partly I believe because you agreed with Ico), which turned out to be incorrect. Can you share maybe some other reads that you have?

[Andresvmb]

I’m going to be busy over the next several hours so hopefully nobody gets executed in that time.

[Andresvmb]

@Iconeum, think about it for a minute. Billy never turned against Datisi despite their claim, correct? Now why do you think that is?

[Andresvmb]

Also, I also have the lingering suspicion that Scum have a Role Cop.

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba that does not make sense. The minute that Datisi comes out with a Track on VPB, you don’t think Billy jumps out of his seat and expresses mighty skepticism about Datisi if they know they’re lying?

[Andresvmb]

Yet, no skepticism. Instead, Billy has consistently been saying that Datisi is Town, and asking for opinions there. I think it’s very likely that Datisi planned to out the Track from Billy, in order to conceal the true identity of the Tracker. And that they’re both Masons. That would be my logical guess.

[Andresvmb]

Before I say anything, @VP Baltar can you detail your result? And can you update your read of Alduskkel and Hellbooks for me?

@DkKoba can you let me know what your Scum pool is right now?

[Andresvmb]

@Ico Testarossa is practically guaranteed Town, should never be in any POE.

[Andresvmb]

Also, no one claims until VPB outs their result. It makes no sense to do it the other way around.

[Andresvmb]

As a side not, can someone tell Bob that 1799 turned out not to be true?

[Andresvmb]

^Side note*

[Andresvmb]

Also, why exactly are we massclaiming? Not that I’m completely opposed to it, but isn’t it potentially a day early?