Mini Normal 2196 - Game Over

[Klick]

Sup

[Klick]

Don't lim until I've caught up (which should be in the next 24 hours, doing a bit now).

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Without having read most of the game the above by FL is scummy af

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So, just a quick sanity check.

As far as I can tell, claiming D4 Innocent Child is not a good move for scum. Unless they have good reason to believe they could secure their victory before then, it just means that, should they be lying, they are guaranteeing their elimination on day 4. Even if they manage to throw everyone off for a few actions, it's not like they would be faking cop, so the damage they could do from everyone assuming they are town is limited.

Playing Devil's advocate for myself, why would scum choose to do that? The only reasons I could think of is if they were trying to Doctor bait. Perhaps a Reflexive Watcher Scum (or a Scum with a Watcher partner) might claim IC if they felt finding a doctor was worth sacrificing themselves... which seems like a really bad trade to me. Also, it feels like a super specific circumstance.

As for why Town might lie about it, it would be trying to NK bait... because they are a bulletproof reflexive watcher or a paranoid gun owner? That also feels like a stretch, if slightly less of one, since those trades would be worth it.

So, my conclusion is that April is Town, even if they are lying about being a D4 IC (which I think is unlikely). Like, if they had claimed to be a Day 6 Innocent Child, I would be insanely suspicious, but for Day 4... It feels like they are trying to turn their time locked IC status into an effective IC role.

Is there anything wrong with my analysis? If not, I'm prepared to treat April as effectively an Innocent Child unless/until it is officially proven.

If all of this is super obvious to everyone, I apologize. I'm mostly working through my own thoughts here.

What is this

[Klick]

Page 13 atm, I'll finish later today

TOWNY TOWN TOWN:

RLotus, Amélie

Both of their thoughts on the game feel super legitimate up to this point.
I want to put bugs pray up there as well but I'm not quite as certain.

I want to lim clidd or geraintm today.

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bugspray*
thx autocorrect

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VOTE: dadude

thought about entrapta a bit instead of actually posting here last night

e-1

i just shouted at dripping goofball for placing a vote with zero explanation, and then you go and do the exact same thing.
you clearly have a reason.

Just glad not_mafia is the mod and not playing

'I've just seen two votes on the wagon I'm on that I don't like, and now it's at E-1. I'm going to...'

A) unvote

B) throw some shade while staying on the wagon

[Klick]

So, just a quick sanity check.

As far as I can tell, claiming D4 Innocent Child is not a good move for scum. Unless they have good reason to believe they could secure their victory before then, it just means that, should they be lying, they are guaranteeing their elimination on day 4. Even if they manage to throw everyone off for a few actions, it's not like they would be faking cop, so the damage they could do from everyone assuming they are town is limited.

Playing Devil's advocate for myself, why would scum choose to do that? The only reasons I could think of is if they were trying to Doctor bait. Perhaps a Reflexive Watcher Scum (or a Scum with a Watcher partner) might claim IC if they felt finding a doctor was worth sacrificing themselves... which seems like a really bad trade to me. Also, it feels like a super specific circumstance.

As for why Town might lie about it, it would be trying to NK bait... because they are a bulletproof reflexive watcher or a paranoid gun owner? That also feels like a stretch, if slightly less of one, since those trades would be worth it.

So, my conclusion is that April is Town, even if they are lying about being a D4 IC (which I think is unlikely). Like, if they had claimed to be a Day 6 Innocent Child, I would be insanely suspicious, but for Day 4... It feels like they are trying to turn their time locked IC status into an effective IC role.

Is there anything wrong with my analysis? If not, I'm prepared to treat April as effectively an Innocent Child unless/until it is officially proven.

If all of this is super obvious to everyone, I apologize. I'm mostly working through my own thoughts here.

I...I want to, like, townread this effort, but something...about HypoSoc suggests they are rather wordy as both alignments. I'm not really able to read through this post currently and, uh, break it down to the concepts or whatever. Can someone help me understand what this post is really saying?

fwiw this really closely matches how I feel about this post
'want to townread but hesitant' fits the bill

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I'm tinfoilin' a Geraint, Amelie, Da Dude team right now, but i think it almost makes too much sense

Actually really surprised you don't have Amelie as town here.

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Although, that Idris Elba vote got some stank on it

i don't understand this?

i just realised my random vote was on the big wagonUNVOTE:

I feel like...like scum would try to act more clueless? Does anyone know, er...does anyone know if geraint is the type of person to feign ignorance as scum?

oh shit I missed this
hmm. Still not really a big fan of geraintm from before that but not as convinced

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Actually that post was like 7 hours later so it's not that great a save.

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I don't think that the way Amélie was expressing herself about her impressions is necessarily malicious, but the reasons described don't make much sense to me. I believe that she is unconsciously compressing a specific interpretation of the facts to fit into a particular theory of hers, whether bc of confbias or some other mental process that I am unaware of (I don't read minds). Probably more town than not, but I still need to have more samples of her reasoning to understand the mentality that she is coming from in AI terms.

*flip*
*flop*

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Ydrasse reflects me as ''lost'', and this is unusual, considering that she can project on a organic level a flow of towny interactions as scum, just like she did in FL vs Hectic.

The apathy and the gradual loss of interest, as well as the eventual exit, within the context of she needing to play in side games and not having the time for the current game (plus boring gamestate), make me think that the slot is likely town. There is still a chance of scum!Ydrasse simply not being interested in the game, but I am convinced that I can reevaluate if that is the case depending on the successor.

*flip*
*flop*

VOTE: clidd

[Klick]

Alright I am all caught up and this is my reads list

Town > Null > Scum
Clidd
Geraintm
Gretchen
Da Dude
RLotus
DGB
Alice
Amelie
Klick
Bugspray
Hypo
April

VOTE: April
I really am struggling to understand them. They post a lot and half if not most of the posts seem kinda shitposty which makes it hard to really sort them properly.

This is pretty close to being the opposite of my reads
Pretty weird post to make for scum though, and I can see how a town!Mini writes this. She kinda outright says that she's 'having trouble sorting' April instead of outright finding her scummy, and that's the sort of nuance and lack of thinking about presentation that I see a lot more often from less experienced town than scum

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I can't go back and check rn clidd but like
how much confidence do you have in Da Dude scum?

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Because I feel like you shouldn't be moving me up if you think Da Dude is scum because my catchup should make plenty of sense to you from the perspective of a buddy who came in wanting to save their buddy

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Is it? You townread bugspray, and April's a self-vote. So are you just saying you don't like Mini's vote there??

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So I like clidd's reads generally and even if he's scum I'm kinda fine with him living longer

VOTE: April Ludgate

Can't help but feel like too much makes sense if this is scum

[Klick]

So I like clidd's reads generally and even if he's scum I'm kinda fine with him living longer

VOTE: April Ludgate

Can't help but feel like too much makes sense if this is scum

How does it make sense?

The claim and the self-vote mostly. FL loves this sort of cheesy 'why would scum ever do this???' stuff as scum.

I'm finding myself a lot more willing to believe April is bullshitting with the N4 IC claim and using it to have prolonged influence on the gamestate than April actually drawing 'N4 IC' and playing it out like this. Also, the only thing I've read as a potential towntell in April's play is her digging into Entrapta - I'd expect to have gotten some other town ping from her at some point by now.

Also also, the self vote was reeeally bad.

[Klick]

kinda feel like fun in this game is over, boon is just going to do the same boon shit as every game and bug is going to nag me when I have emphasized to them that I am consciously working on it

like if you're going to snipe me every fucking time then it makes me feel like you don't appreciate how fucking hard it is to keep track of pronouns when there's 3 people playing cross-gender stealth alts, 8 people I've literally never played with before, and all the other fucking noise in this game

This reads completely genuine to me and also not really AI

I have the Da Dude slot as leaning town, because Da Dude himself gave some content that looked like good actual reads and I liked it. The wagon on Entrapta also felt pretty lazy for how big it got and it doesn't feel right to me.
Entrapta's play alone gave me no real leaning in either direction but maybe I'll look at it again tonight

[Klick]

Even if I choose to ignore reads for the sake of playing *optimally* like you're suggesting, that logic still doesn't work out

If April is scum, what she'd gain from claiming D4 IC is three days where the odds of limming scum go down significantly
That's a bigger advantage for scum than you think it is; if scum made it to D4 all intact, even with a free lim in April, we'd still be in 5p LyLo which is *not* a good place for town to be

Essentially the scum gain in claiming D4 IC is reducing the available scum eliminations each day by 1, unless the bluff is called early

[Klick]

Think of it this way

Our odds of flipping scum randomly today are 3/13, but with a scum claim like that they become 2/12
Assuming we then flip a townie which is rather likely, our odds the next day are 2/10 instead of 3/11
And then the next day they're 2/8 instead of 3/9

Thats a rather large advantage for three days, and if you get through those three days successfully as scum you've gained a very large advantage that surpasses what you'd lose on the fourth day, as D5 you're in a really solid spot especially if you've been planning this with your team the whole time

This might not make sense to you but I guarantee you it makes sense to April Ludgate

[Klick]

I can't engage with the wall of maths atm and I don't think it's really productive to do so. but I feel it's rather important to acknowledge that scum's influence on the game becomes much larger the later in the game we get with more scum alive. 3 scum voting with 9 alive instead of 2 is a rather big deal. And that increases the advantage April would get from doing this gambit in this scenario.
For example 2-3 LyLo is not actually 40% chance of limming scum because all three Town have to agree on a vote. The same applies to earlier days. If April!scum removes herself from the lim pool there's a massive payoff on D3 in particular

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But then we're in D5 LyLo because we've been looking for 2 scum instead of 3

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Alice, what would you be doing differently if you were scum right now?

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I gut townread Alice because it doesn't really feel like she's trying to convince me she's town, but I'm prepared to be wrong about that
She doesn't have a scumgame for me to look at

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Alice

, if you're still there, I'd love an answer to this question:

Alice, what would you be doing differently if you were scum right now?

[Klick]

What kind of agenda? Generally, what have you been doing today that you don't think you'd do as scum? What should we be townreading you for?
Have you been scum before elsewhere?

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I think there are two possibilities with the Da Dude wagon considering its the only wagon there's been today that hasn't kinda been a meme

1. Da Dude is scum and his buddies were actively bussing him
2. Da Dude is town and the scum were *fine* with him being the vote - not to say they were actively driving it, but they weren't making anything else happen

The 'scum caused the April wagon' point is silly imo, the April wagon isn't even real at this point and the votes that have come off Da Dude have been fairly directionless, without much of a goal

[Klick]

Half the game wants to flip you and that's all they've been saying for pages
It's pretty scummy tbh
There are several possible alternatives but since you're town no one wants to gather together and join one of those alternatives

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VOTE: DrippingGoofball

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I've been moving back home this weekend, otherwise I'd have probably been doing more

DGB is a viable wagon and its basically done nothing but say we should flip you. If I can't get my preferred lims (clidd or geraintm atm) I'm completely fine with going with a >rand scum wagon in DGB.

[Klick]

Remind me what lhf is

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VOTE: clidd

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clidd talk to me about Alice, why is she scum, what is she doing to try and advance a scum wincon

[Klick]

If she doesn't look all that scummy then why would she need a defense from a scum partner

Or better yet, if she doesn't look all that scummy then why are you voting her

[Klick]

I want to get on the same page with some people on a wagon but I'm not seeing Alice as scum and I'd love to see what you and/or clidd are seeing

Alternatively, I'd love to see clidd!scum not have a decent answer to this question

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i see her simply not actively playing towards town wincon and making a lot of empty posts

Town do this frequently
Additionally, Alice did it frequently in both of her finished games
She was town in both

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@clidd

clidd talk to me about Alice, why is she scum, what is she doing to try and advance a scum wincon

[Klick]

I really want to kill clidd
I'll join a Gretchen wagon if you all won't kill clidd but like I really think this flips scum

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VOTE: Gretchen
I don't really have the motivation to show why clidd is scum more than I have atm and it seems clear that this isn't going anywhere
If Gretchen flips town it's worth looking at who said 'yeah clidd might be scum' and then didn't take up the chance to wagon him

[Klick]

UNVOTE:

[Klick]

VOTE: Gretchen
I don't really have the motivation to show why clidd is scum more than I have atm and it seems clear that this isn't going anywhere
If Gretchen flips town it's worth looking at who said 'yeah clidd might be scum' and then didn't take up the chance to wagon him

I actually really think clidd is town, where does this scum read stem from specifically?

Tbh I'm used to reading clidd as really obviously town and reading this game I'm getting like zero towntells from him. (I've not played against him being scum before)
I've just gone through his ISO to reaffirm how I felt about him, but instead I saw a slot that could fairly plausibly be town; he's explicitly said he's trying a new playstyle this game and that could explain why I'm not reading him towny at all
The biggest issue I had earlier was how flexible he was allowing himself to be with reads, like he was intentionally giving himself wiggle room

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I do

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VOTE: geraintm

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I guess it's somewhat more likely that he's 'trying out a new playstyle' as town genuinely trying something new than as scum who is highly likely to draw suspicion for being out of the norm?

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but yeah, just so you know April, if you wanna know what killed my motivation and enthusiasm for this game, it was you saying that right at the start

you are going to get scum read for 'incorrect' reasons in every single game

you're not a new player, I feel like this should not be new to you

which is why this feels more like scum frustrated by being caught for the wrong reasons than town frustrated because they think town is scum reading them wrongly

I tend to agree with this reasoning generally but I feel like it's being applied incorrectly here

Gretchen's frustration seems more about feeling like she can't just have fun and less about being scumread for it

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We're not voting Gretchen today that's dumb

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Mostly yeah
I'm also totally seeing the frustration argument from her perspective

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I have a role that synergises with Gretchen's in such a way that makes me believe the claim is town.

Can we vote scum today?

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amelie is way too townread rn thats my take

I was just thinking the same about you

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ok wagon me then

no

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<333 Gretchen

does anyone actually think geraintm is town and if so why
because he's probably just scum and the lack of attention there is sus af

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Or we can vote geraintm
Why don't you want to vote geraintm bugspray

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The one time I played with him before this he was bleeding town. He didn't really care how he was getting read and just said what was on his mind. His other town games I've read looked a lot like this as well. Atm he feels a bit... reserved, compared to what I've seen from him before on D1 as town? I feel like he's trying not to step on any mines, whereas when I've seen him before as town I didn't have that impression.

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It's like we're getting as little as possible to read him from so that he can skate by D1, and I feel like there's way more reason for that to be happening if he's scum

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VOTE: geraintm

? am i meant to know why you've voted for me?

Also this was a weak attempt at deflection that's trying really hard not to sound suspicious