mini normal 2226; who won

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VOTE: Alch

Why not? Then I can catch up overnight and see if I find any scum in Titus/Gamma/Chaos.

This is pretty much where I am at.

Playing elim in the PoE til the game is over. Unless someone has a specific question ciao for now.

No reason to create more bloat for me to add to tonight’s catch up

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Internet issues so VLA will respond as I can

Nice work Titus.

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I am informed that only one mafia has a gun

*flashbacks to that one normal i modded with 0 scum guns and a town gunsmith*

anyway. assuming you're town, that points towards the traitor theory. and knowing there cannot be two mafia traitors (as they would've gotten endgamed the second umlaut got yeeted), the scumteam is probably

mafia neighbour, mafia traitor neighbour, mafia doctor. however, it could theoretically be two mafia doctors remaining.

in any case, a traitor/neighbour results from the rolecop are a hard guilty, doctor an almost hard guilty.

Not really seeing how that balances.

It makes sense assuming all the claims are town so far as I think they are but scum could literally be endgamed N1. Not seeing how this passes a review.

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I am informed that only one mafia has a gun

*flashbacks to that one normal i modded with 0 scum guns and a town gunsmith*

anyway. assuming you're town, that points towards the traitor theory. and knowing there cannot be two mafia traitors (as they would've gotten endgamed the second umlaut got yeeted), the scumteam is probably

mafia neighbour, mafia traitor neighbour, mafia doctor. however, it could theoretically be two mafia doctors remaining.

in any case, a traitor/neighbour results from the rolecop are a hard guilty, doctor an almost hard guilty.

Not really seeing how that balances.

It makes sense assuming all the claims are town so far as I think they are but scum could literally be endgamed N1. Not seeing how this passes a review.

er, what's the issue here, and do you have any better ideas, considering you think all claims so far are town?

My issue here is assume that the setup is mafia doc, mafia traitor Neighbor, mafia neighbor

Then gunsmith checks mafia neighbor
Rolecop checks doctor at any point.

At this point scum cannot feasibly win the game.

Usually with this kind of setup there is prevention for that scenario.

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I am informed that only one mafia has a gun

*flashbacks to that one normal i modded with 0 scum guns and a town gunsmith*

anyway. assuming you're town, that points towards the traitor theory. and knowing there cannot be two mafia traitors (as they would've gotten endgamed the second umlaut got yeeted), the scumteam is probably

mafia neighbour, mafia traitor neighbour, mafia doctor. however, it could theoretically be two mafia doctors remaining.

in any case, a traitor/neighbour results from the rolecop are a hard guilty, doctor an almost hard guilty.

Not really seeing how that balances.

It makes sense assuming all the claims are town so far as I think they are but scum could literally be endgamed N1. Not seeing how this passes a review.

It's because I'm really lucky. My role is hella gated.

I'm walking around like queen of the jungle but I really shouldn't be.

Math, who is scum?

I honestly have no idea.

I caught up but none of what you said made sense so I was just going to be a sheep again.

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I am informed that only one mafia has a gun

*flashbacks to that one normal i modded with 0 scum guns and a town gunsmith*

anyway. assuming you're town, that points towards the traitor theory. and knowing there cannot be two mafia traitors (as they would've gotten endgamed the second umlaut got yeeted), the scumteam is probably

mafia neighbour, mafia traitor neighbour, mafia doctor. however, it could theoretically be two mafia doctors remaining.

in any case, a traitor/neighbour results from the rolecop are a hard guilty, doctor an almost hard guilty.

Not really seeing how that balances.

It makes sense assuming all the claims are town so far as I think they are but scum could literally be endgamed N1. Not seeing how this passes a review.

er, what's the issue here, and do you have any better ideas, considering you think all claims so far are town?

My issue here is assume that the setup is mafia doc, mafia traitor Neighbor, mafia neighbor

Then gunsmith checks mafia neighbor
Rolecop checks doctor at any point.

At this point scum cannot feasibly win the game.

Usually with this kind of setup there is prevention for that scenario.

Change the doctor claim to a joat with a doctor role but no gun role in it. How does your balance analysis change?

Who do you think I protected?
Who do you think is scum?

Then that’s worse because then that scum gets guiltied by gunsmith.

Only mafia doctors in normals are gunless.

You left off yesterday saying you hadn’t made your choice.
And I didn’t know a few posts ago and nothing has changed since.

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My issue here is assume that the setup is mafia doc, mafia traitor Neighbor, mafia neighbor

Then gunsmith checks mafia neighbor
Rolecop checks doctor at any point.

At this point scum cannot feasibly win the game.

Usually with this kind of setup there is prevention for that scenario.

i mean, that's crap luck, but the actual odds of that happening are extremely low.

also sorry titus, i'll shut up now, i should've been asleep a while ago anyway.

It’s actually not.
Having two roles never be checked ever for game success is almost infinitesimal.

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You left off yesterday saying you hadn’t made your choice.
And I didn’t know a few posts ago and nothing has changed since.

Scum no killed, so the inference is that I did something right. So what do you think I did and to whom?

I don’t know Titus. I wish I could answer you. All I did was catch up.

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Doctor isn’t a hard guilty outside of that knowledge that only one scum has a gun

It’s a hard guilty once Jailkeeper is claimed and flipped though.

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(Yes I am assuming Titus town here sue me)

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I dunno I just don’t think it balances.

Assuming you’re nerfed then ungated doctor (the only thing in wiki that is immune to gunsmiths) here I don’t see it passing normals.

Even beyond the globally informed 3 people have behind the scenes chat.

Like I will be glad for the win but I don’t think that’s the setup here

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Like I am stuck in a rock and a hard place here:

Realistically I townread Titus Chaos Gamma and Datisi.

I don’t see a world where all of them can be town though.

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math, you think informed gunsmith + (assuming) odd-night rolecop + gated jailkeeper is too much? like, gunsmith can get a guilty on only one person, and the rolecop on maybe 2. if the gunsmith dies with the information then it's even worse

I think all town odd night rolecop, gated JK, gunsmith, informed 3 BTS chat is too much against the proposed scum team setup.

Mafia doctor can never end game because when JK dies (nerfed or otherwise) cannot end game
Neighbor mafia therefore must never be checked
Assuming traitor scum need a way to stop the checks
Of which we haven’t seen any evidence of strongman or roleblocker or what not.

So I don’t think this setup works with the proposed scum team roles

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I think if we assume Titus Gamma Chaos you all town scum have to have a different PR breakdown

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Koba has to be town unless one of me/chaos are scum
So if you think we’re both town than Koba is mech conf town

Okay then Koba town for now like okay I am focusing on where I am asked atm

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why can't the mafia doc endgame? they don't have to actually claim the fact they're a doc, no?

Gamma rolecop and Chaos informed only 1 gun make that impossible though.

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Gamma would turn into alignment cop and FTC happens.

So scum need a strongman which can’t be on the traitor because traitor can’t kill
Can’t be on Umlaut already flipped
Can’t be on doctor else becomes having a gun again

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My guess would be gamma since Chaos got results?

But that doesn’t seem like a you thing to do?

Tbh I would have shot you if I was scum so I like have no idea

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I don’t see how doctor strongman would need a gun
Ime mafia doctor would only get gun again if it has a role that would show up as having a gun if town

In Normal games on mafiascum.net, a Gunsmith gets guilties on all Mafia (except Traitors and Doctors), Cops, Vigilantes, Gunsmiths, Role Cops, Vanilla Cops, PT Cops, Vengefuls, Detectives, Neapolitans, Backups of roles with guns and JoATs that have any of these listed powers

I mean this is directly from the wiki. Sooo soon as you add something with a gun to a doctor it’s no longer immune.

What if 4 scum 3 regular two doctors and one traitor. That might work?

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Tbh I think trying to play assuming balance isn’t the best way. Imo you play with what you know vs. what you think, and work from there

That’s how I hunt.

I hunt from what I know.

What I know is this setup as is doesnt balance.

So then what I think is irrelevant I can just coast to easy victory or deep wolf exists
So I hunt deep wolf and pray I am wrong and just sheep

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Math, stop talking about balance and go by play alone. Whatcha see bro?

I sheep you and win. *shrug*

There’s too much mechanics. Soon as I try by play I remember mechanics then realize my idea was stupid.

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Math, stop talking about balance and go by play alone. Whatcha see bro?

I feel like scum have been buttering you up.

It’s just each time I pick someone as likely butterer I get no where
Datisi is lock town because you blocked >> could be killer but doubt it

There is no resistance to you leading which is weird.

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DkKoba
Gamma Emerald
Datisi
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Aristeia
Titus
Lukewarm
ChaosOmega
Not_Mafia

Gamma and chaos both got results, so not them.

Koba has been cleared, and would not have been the night kill, so not him.

I would not have been surprised if you had jailed me after the lolhammer, but I doubt the scum team ever targets me after the lolhammer, and a kill stopped. So not me.

So : dats again, math, Ari, nm are the options imo.

Dats could have been the kill target again, trying to put smart you protecting one of the investigatives (and failing)

I really think nm is town, but also never getting shot. So taking him off again.

So my guess is either Ari or math.

Gth, it's math. Final answer

I don’t remember Gamma saying he had results then but if he did he wasn’t blocked.

So then assuming you’re all town then I would go with Ari here first as scum? Like the logic seems sound

I just don’t think it’s right by mechanics and gut

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Math, stop talking about balance and go by play alone. Whatcha see bro?

I feel like scum have been buttering you up.

It’s just each time I pick someone as likely butterer I get no where
Datisi is lock town because you blocked >> could be killer but doubt it

There is no resistance to you leading which is weird.

This situation is weird, which is why I am pleading with you for moonlogic.

My moonlogic is Datisi is scum killer.

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Like I doubt it but I don’t see things fitting unless one in Chaos or Gamma or Datisi is scum.

I don’t see Chaos lying about being informed there because outed as soon as two scum with guns flip so likely true regardless of alignment.

Leaves Gamma and Dat and mechanically Datisi has the biggest chance of being scum.

Pedit: not sure how? If you’re jailkeeper you have to block Datisi to save him yeah?

*confused*

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I don’t see Chaos lying about being informed there because outed as soon as two scum with guns flip so likely true regardless of alignment.

As long as his partner doesn't flip before him, he's fine with this claim.

I'd have Gamma check Chaos to secure our pool possibly. Not sure.

I guess it works if Chaos is traitor only. Then he just instantly loses if a buddy is flipped anyway.

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Assuming three scum like Datisi suggested

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It just seems like such a far fetched claim to be fake.

Pedit: His buddy would have to do the kill not him. So since no kill he could assume his buddy was blocked maybe?

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I'm an informed gunsmith. N1 Umlaut has a gun, N2 Koba no gun, N3 Gamma has a gun.

I am informed that only one mafia has a gun, which is why I've been bringing up traitors throughout the game.

Well in this case Koba actually is town, since Koba is vanilla, and has no gun; this means that there is no role combination Koba can be in order to be mafia without a gun. So while I’m still disappointed in them, Koba is conf town now at least

eat crow

?? Why are you saying to Gamma eat crow ??

*confusion level rising if that is even possible*

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also i confirm im vt if it isnt clear

It like hella wasn’t so thanks

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Its an expression i picked up from another community as an expression when someone egregiously misreads someone else and then they get confirmed town one way or another

Can you both not have a probably TvT shit fest please?

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Please just don’t. Can you both save it for post game unless you think the other is scum?

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Please just don’t. Can you both save it for post game unless you think the other is scum?

They both literally cannot be scum unless Chaos is.

I was hoping to do the protown thing which is stop the noise while hunting if Chaos is scum.

Ffs Titus. Like damn.

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On the up side I think I figured out who you blocked and your gated ness and why you’re confused.

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I don’t think it’s smart of me to say so I am just gonna say “Whelp Math is an idiot” sheep Titus

That kinda seems the optimal play anyway.

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i think last scum is in {titus - luke - ari - math }

and the quickhammer from luke gives me traitor vibes so

Last scum? Isn’t there two scum?

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Or three even?

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Gamma do you think Koba is scum? If no then stop asking them questions.
Koba do you think Gamma is scum? If no then stop asking him questions.

I get it. You think the other is absolutely shit player this game.

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@Math and Luke, Both claim please.

Ice cream lover

(VT)

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That leaves Ari.

And not mafia? Or do we wait for him since he trolls?

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And Datisi too. Don’t think he has claimed.

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Mod: Would a mafia joat with a doctor come back as having a gun?

if one of the other shots is a role that has a gun, then yes. but, if not, then no.

@mod: Would strongman have a gun?

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Well if mod has been openly answering questions openly before she should answer them openly no matter the question.

Asking implosion midgame would be talking to another person midgame about possible setup would seem out of bounds for me.

If Tris asks implosion that’s cool but I don’t think I can

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So I guess one shot strongman on the doc could work, they’d also need an investigative too to find the PRs…

Awful overloaded.

Maybe though?

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And a roleblock too

I can’t think of what Joat works

Cop + doc is balanced with Roleblocker

Here assuming all are town we have two unlimited cops and JK.

What Joat balances that?

I am at a loss how this works

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I know I shouldn’t hunt by setup but it’s like my main bread and butter

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My role is limited though?

Odd night isn’t much of a limit though

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(Yes I am guessing here but it’s what has already been theorized)

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One of the things I look to is path to victory for scum.

If scum never get checked then they lose to PoE
If they get checked they lose because checked.

Bad setup and GG we win?

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It’s entirely unsatisfying but that’s the only thing I can think of and this is a busted setup.

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One of the things I look to is path to victory for scum.

If scum never get checked then they lose to PoE
If they get checked they lose because checked.

Bad setup and GG we win?

a win is a win!

It’s not though.

I like to win on merits.

Winning like this feels …wrong.

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I am. But I just don’t think Mastina makes back to back unwinnable setups for scum.

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(I am referring to Garfield if anyone cares)

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Not sure how to respond to this without outing you except thank you and your gifs are beautiful.

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What the fuck?

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maybe not mafia forgot to put a nightkill in

Possible but I doubt it. When I was scum with Not Mafia just a game ago he checked in. He also never hammered e-1 in those games.

Plus Umlaut v Flubber/Not Mafia is a thing.

Probably looking at an intentional scum no kill.

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viewtopic.php?f=2&t=87211

Town won due to mod interference I had to make a kill I really shouldn’t have had to make.

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Possible but I doubt it. When I was scum with Not Mafia just a game ago he checked in. He also never hammered e-1 in those games.

Plus Umlaut v Flubber/Not Mafia is a thing.

Probably looking at an intentional scum no kill.

I don't understand why scum would deliberately no kill in this game state.

Me neither. None of that makes sense. But it’s the most likely

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Not mafia doing hammers means he is town here. He’s actually doing his trolling

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maybe not mafia forgot to put a nightkill in

Possible but I doubt it. When I was scum with Not Mafia just a game ago he checked in. He also never hammered e-1 in those games.

Plus Umlaut v Flubber/Not Mafia is a thing.

Probably looking at an intentional scum no kill.

That’s probably just it
The question is who and why

Agreed makes me think one of the PR claims has to be scum and they wanna set up Not Mafia

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i will likely be late in starting the day.

i will start the day at some point after 1 pm PST, and probably after 2 pm PST

^ the timing lines up with the mod giving a 24 hour extension and prodding the mafia player to submit a nightkill but the mafia player just doesn't do it.

I just don’t think so.
I think tris just had RL.

Anything else is mod interference for scum
I can’t agree with your argument here

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not killing at 9 is giving the town an extra elimination - it's really not a great thing to do if you're scum trying to

set someone up

because your max gain if it works is just to get you back to where you should've been in the first place on the kill cycle.

also I don't think a deliberate no kill by choice would've had moderator extending night deadline by a whole day

I agree with the last sentence. I just think tris had RL which doesn’t indicate anything.

I literally will never assume a mod sides for town or scum.

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I just don’t think so.
I think tris just had RL.

Anything else is mod interference for scum
I can’t agree with your argument here

I don't agree with RL, I think it's more likely she gave mafia an extension to get their NK in and then opened day when the mafia didn't take their chance.

I don't think there's an RL reason to delay day open as it's fairly minimal effort to write "No1 Died" and unlock the thread.

Mods have to do a lot more than that though.

Assume Chaos and Gamma and Titus all town.
She has to process the results correctly and send the PMs.

She’s also been known to site flake too at weird times.

I can’t accept your argument.

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Titus doesn't require processing.
Chaos is just send him a PM that says "Gamma has a gun"
Gamma is just send him a PM that says "____ is ____"

the "nightkill" didn't happen so doesn't even have to be processed.

She obviously didn't siteflake since she logged on to say that the day start would be "delayed"

Let me be more blunt.

I refuse to believe a moderator openly scumsides. There is no argument that will convince me otherwise.

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That’s right, there’s only one scum capable of submitting the NK and since Umlaut is dead there’s most likely no connection between the traitor and final groupscum
So that probably raises the chance it was an accidental no kill a good amount

I patently disagree here.
I think scum deliberately no killed.

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Crap I forgot about NM. I shouldn't have revealed yet.

How did you forget? I literally asked you about him?

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I refuse to believe a moderator openly scumsides. There is no argument that will convince me otherwise.

I don't think delaying daystart to give the scum an extra day to get their NK in is openly scumsiding.

However the person who is most likely to have forgotten to submit the nightkill is obviously NM:


Alchemist21 Jul 27, 09:18pm Aug 19, 07:38pm 3 days 2 hours 160
Not_Mafia Aug 09, 04:09am Aug 18, 02:19pm 4 days 8 hours 24


and I refuse to believe a scum player decided to no-kill deliberately at 9P night in order to "frame" NM when NM is already in the POE and throw the town an extra elimination for the funsies.

Then we are at an enpass. Because I always assume mods are neutral.

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Then we are at an enpass. Because I always assume mods are neutral.

ok even if you throw the extension out of the window, I still think accidental no kill is a lot more likely than intentional no kill.

Disagree.

I have done some things that look pro town but are pro scum when scum.

An extra elim when you’re in the town lock section is meaningless

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Then assume you convince a majority.

Then we flip Not Mafia and assume he’s town. There goes the “extra” elim.

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This is just pissing me off.

I am going to play pathfinder.

I just like can’t. Right now.

Today has been utter shit.

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The logical solution here is to eliminate Not_Mafia. He's in nearly everyone's non-mechanical clears. Eliminating him gives us info about whether scum no killed deliberately or accidentally and it gives information about D1.

The hitch is I don't think Flubber v Umlaut was S v S but it could be.

Then don’t

You know this is a setup as do I.

We feel it.

Listen to that.

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Because before today everyone TR’d not mafia.

A day we focus on not mafia is a day we don’t focus on the weird PR balance

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Because before today everyone TR’d not mafia.

A day we focus on not mafia is a day we don’t focus on the weird PR balance

The balance isn't as weird as you suggest. I'm nerfed because I'm loyal. That means follow the cop cannot be done. I only clear someone if I guess right or they claim blocked. The only true clear I have is Datisi. The Gamma clear is just strongly indicated.

I disagree.

I have ran through about 10-15 different calculations and not a one scum wins this setup. Not a one.

Ergo this setup being it is highly unlikely.

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Math, ngl you're freaking me out. The last time you complained like this, you were scum.

Then scum read me for it. Hell elim me for it if you have to.

I am telling the truth.

Scum cannot win the setup proposed.

It is literally impossible without town throwing.

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Math, ngl you're freaking me out. The last time you complained like this, you were scum.

Then scum read me for it. Hell elim me for it if you have to.

I am telling the truth.

Scum cannot win the setup proposed.

It is literally impossible without town throwing.

Alright, suppose scum kill Chaos tonight and Gamma the night after so we get no additional results. How does your calculus change?

Assuming they are town and you are town then Koba and Datisi lock town assuming two town from the PoE is gone.

We are at 10 alive now then 6 alive. Koba and Datisi conf town then you’d be looking at two scum and two POE best case scenario. Scum town no kill. Draw at best. Scum can’t kill there else they get elimmed.

It’s unwinnable for scum.

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I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)

Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.

So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.

All "no gun results" are in conclusive, because 2 scum does not have a gun. So a "no gun" basically means nothing.

the 2 "have a gun" result are also inconclusive, because one is town and 1 is scum.

The fact that he managed to find both players in 3 days is actually pretty impressive if true, and I feel like if you run models (which you said you did, ngl, I am not taking the time to do so), most games this ability would actually be pretty useless, or possibly even detrimental if he finds the role cop first.

Cool again assume all town

Chaos checks Gamma votes Gamma. Gamma claims rolecop who checked Umlaut no result. Titus backs up Gamma. You get three conf town

Assume Titus doesn’t block Umlaut lock scum Gamma outs it.

Assume Gamma checks town.

Gamma outs the vanilla ans the vanilla is locktown

No matter how you slice it you get confirms.

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I find it >rand that scum complain about a setup being townsided because from their pov it looks more bleak when in reality town is usually is always unsure :3

Go through it yourself.

Find a way that there is less than 2 conf towns. I dare you.

Highest is 4 on N1

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Assuming they are town and you are town then Koba and Datisi lock town assuming two town from the PoE is gone.

We are at 10 alive now then 6 alive. Koba and Datisi conf town then you’d be looking at two scum and two POE best case scenario. Scum town no kill. Draw at best. Scum can’t kill there else they get elimmed.

It’s unwinnable for scum.

I remember a setup that is actually quite similar to this with 2 scum and a traitor vs 2 town investigative roles + loyal jailkeeper + innocent child + 2 town neighbors.


viewtopic.php?f=2&t=84467

the scum did end up winning.

I think the town is probably stronger in that game than this one.

Quick skim of that setup doesn’t have the same problems.

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Quick skim of that setup doesn’t have the same problems.

because?

Because no forced innos.

Assume Chaos checks a VT no gun. Gamma checks a VT (other than Chaos). Titus blocks a random Townie not killed.

You get an inno there.

Then the other VT is inno’d until we get to same point and this setup is suggested. Gamma either checks them or they come into the PoE again but by then Gamma becomes alignment cop and has checked others thus narrowing the PoE.

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Gamma and VT inno = 2 confirmed town.

You cannot escape N1 without two confirmed town with the setup proposed. It’s literally impossible.

[MathBlade]

Quick skim of that setup doesn’t have the same problems.

because?

Because no forced innos.

Assume Chaos checks a VT no gun. Gamma checks a VT (other than Chaos). Titus blocks a random Townie not killed.

You get an inno there.

Then the other VT is inno’d until we get to same point and this setup is suggested. Gamma either checks them or they come into the PoE again but by then Gamma becomes alignment cop and has checked others thus narrowing the PoE.

How is that different from the Checker checking a VT and the Neapo checking another VT and the Loyal JK preventing a kill on N1?

Checker checking a VT isn’t an inno. Checker could be blocked hit an ascetic. (Redirected non normal only)

Here Gamma gets a result of VT. That act of the result + Vt = inno unless mod puts in a goon.

Mod puts in a gun then guilty to gunsmith.

Town also threw by yeeting the Checker.

So again town threw..scum won because town threw proving my point

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Town should have never yeeted the Checker in that game. Either they didn’t give checker time to claim or didn’t think it through as checker is almost never a mafia role

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Prove it. Elim me I flip town then setup is busted I don’t have to post or we lose because good scum fake claim I can’t find.

Win win.

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Checker checking a VT isn’t an inno. Checker could be blocked hit an ascetic. (Redirected non normal only)

Here Gamma gets a result of VT. That act of the result + Vt = inno unless mod puts in a goon.

Mod puts in a gun then guilty to gunsmith.

Town also threw by yeeting the Checker.

So again town threw..scum won because town threw proving my point

I don't understand your first line, the only thing that could block the Checker in that setup was the Loyal JK...

The Neapo is objectively stronger than either Informed gunsmith who can only find 1 scum and a gated rolecop that we have.

on top of that the scum team is uninformed who their traitor is and the town has an extra Innocent Child (Delayed) to boot.

My point was that such a setup

has

passed review in the past by Mastina and she rejected the contention that it was unbalanced or townsided in the post game so there would be no reason that she would not create a setup that is similar in terms of power balance.

That other setup should have been rejected too.
Just because scum won it doesn’t mean it should have been passed.

Checker checks A
Neo checks B
Pretend JK doesn’t even exist

You have 4 confirmed alignments N1

That should be rejected as it’s beyond the size of the scum team.
N2 is 6.

That was town’s game to lose.

[MathBlade]

my point isn't to litigate if the town played badly in that game or what they should or should not do with their checker.

My point is that this setup is even more townsided than the current claimed setup and reviewed by Mastina and she rejected the claims that it was townsided in the post game so it's well within what could have been passed into existence.

This one is more townsided
Because if scum get checked they lose
Scum don’t get checked they lose

The one you provided scum don’t get checked they have a shot.

[MathBlade]

I am one of the most potent scum on site for a reason.

I am not scum this game but I can calculate that shit in my head.

This setup as presented is 100% unwinnable for scum

[MathBlade]

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=87222

I mean look here.

Mastina got told her setup was unwinnable for scum by many others and I am over do for a more detailed math breakdown on this game but literally many people have told her certain things are unwinnable.

So *shrug*

[MathBlade]

and she still doubled down and said it was fine.

so why do you think she will change in the future or that she changed for making the setup for this game?

mini normals are notoriously protown in the current meta.

Notoriously protown should not be autowin for signing up.

I am pissed off here because I could literally claim scum and win.

That’s messed up.

I could be 100% antiwincon intentionally,

I can’t believe Mastina would do that again just after being told so.

I can’t.

[MathBlade]

@Math, It's winnable for scum because we have to flip Chaos tmo if he survives tonight and we miseliminate today and there's an NK tonight.

Scum don't shoot Gamma here as that's my obvious camp (no night action tonight and mostly clear). I likely die tonight.

Then who today.

Not Mafia because he is elim bait.

I would prefer not me as well I am town lol.

Who then?

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Chaos

I can’t follow you onto obvious miselim bait Titus sorry

[MathBlade]

I found me!

[MathBlade]

also I highly doubt Mastina listens to you given her wallposts in the Garfield game saying you're wrong

I am pissed this is not helping.

Let’s do Chaos and pray the dude flips scum huh?

Rather than obvi NM miselim bait?

[MathBlade]

I need to take my T shot and go to bed.

I am probably angry cuz of that but still setups must have a path to victory here. The proposed setup cannot be right.

[MathBlade]

the scum can simply kill the investigators. There is always a path to victory.

Nope they can’t. Assume all are town

Assume Chaos and Gamma claim D2.

Scum kill Gamma. Gamma’s N1 check becomes confirmed town/scum.

Chaos gets off another check. Two players confirmed gunless or Titus confirmed to have a gun.

Latter leaves 3 locktowns left unless scum get lucky and were checked by Chaos.

Otherwise still town sweep.

[MathBlade]

This still doesn’t account for Titus saving the kill at all.

[MathBlade]

I will even give you Gamma checks a confirmed Townie N1.

Chaos outs scum have 1 gun then town knows there is a scum doctor in the setup as no other mafia role (besides traitor) gives a inno to gunsmith.

Then Titus is de facto lock town.

[MathBlade]

So this is actually alignment cop, jailkeeper, informed town, informed setup vs 2 goons and a traitor.

This never passes a normal review so it can’t be right

[MathBlade]

Nope they can’t. Assume all are town

Assume Chaos and Gamma claim D2.

Scum kill Gamma. Gamma’s N1 check becomes confirmed town/scum.

Chaos gets off another check. Two players confirmed gunless or Titus confirmed to have a gun.

Latter leaves 3 locktowns left unless scum get lucky and were checked by Chaos.

Otherwise still town sweep.

what if town eliminates gamma d1 and scum shoot chaos at night b4 he can out any results?

You mean what if town throws and scum are god tier?

Then it’s possible scum win but that’s not even remotely probable

[MathBlade]

There should always be a path for town and scum to win that doesn’t rely on the other side throwing the game

[MathBlade]

You mean what if town throws and scum are god tier?

Then it’s possible scum win but that’s not even remotely probable

well it is

a path

It’s also a path to victory for town if scum no kill every night.

Play shouldn’t be balanced around that.

There has to be a remotely probable path to victory.

[MathBlade]

Chaos's claimed role is super weak in my opinion. It has 1 player in the entire game it can inno, and 1 player in the entire game that it can guilty. And then 10 players that it gives a "fuck if I know" result.

It feels weird that I am somewhat doubtful of the claim because of how shitty it is, and also the fact that it still managed to land on both its inno and its guilty already, to then see you sitting there arguing that it is doubtful because the town is too powerful

Maybe I am just dense (and I am still not gonna take the time to run models lol)

+1

Why is Chaos informed when there’s already an informed in the OP?

[MathBlade]

if math is scum, he is traitor scum and protecting NM main scum imo.

i dont see a world where mathblade main scum forgets to submit NK and then spends the entire day hard defending the person most likely to be blamed for "forgetting to submit the NK"

I am not scum but this is the first thing I agree with for a while.

If I am scum I woulda killed Titus last night. Just sayin

[MathBlade]

Chaos's claimed role is super weak in my opinion. It has 1 player in the entire game it can inno, and 1 player in the entire game that it can guilty. And then 10 players that it gives a "fuck if I know" result.

It feels weird that I am somewhat doubtful of the claim because of how shitty it is, and also the fact that it still managed to land on both its inno and its guilty already, to then see you sitting there arguing that it is doubtful because the town is too powerful

Maybe I am just dense (and I am still not gonna take the time to run models lol)

+1

Why is Chaos informed when there’s already an informed in the OP?

this is a stupid question

It’s really not

[MathBlade]

It’s also a path to victory for town if scum no kill every night.

Play shouldn’t be balanced around that.

There has to be a remotely probable path to victory.

I mean I've literally shown you a game where scum won in a sweep where the town had very similar roles to this game except town also had an extra IC and neighbors too so I don't really understand how you think its impossible to win.

Also the debate is about what Mastina will design, not whether such a setup is balanced. Balancing setup is a postgame discussion, I think it's fairly clear the claimed setup falls well within Mastina's meta.

Town threw that game so I mean scum won because town threw.

So I mean I win no matter what so it’s best i continue the argument so MS gets better since like I don’t have to try.

[MathBlade]

no it really is

do you want me to dunk on it ?

Go for it.

[MathBlade]

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86324

this game had global informed info AND an informed gunsmith.

designed my mastina.


even more confirms chaos as legit lol


you';re just scum who's venting about the unfortunateness of trying to big brain a mastina setup

Lol skimmed the PR list

How did town lose that lmfao?

[MathBlade]

if math is scum, he is traitor scum and protecting NM main scum imo.

i dont see a world where mathblade main scum forgets to submit NK and then spends the entire day hard defending the person most likely to be blamed for "forgetting to submit the NK"

I am not scum but this is the first thing I agree with for a while.

If I am scum I woulda killed Titus last night. Just sayin

One of my theories is you're a traitor.

Then prove it.

Elim me. Prove the setup is busted. I flip town and y’all win no matter what.

Who cares?

[MathBlade]

If I am scum I woulda killed Titus last night. Just sayin

ITT Mathblade says things to his scum buddy that he can't say in his PT anymore because umlaut is dead

ITT I already said that and no one cares b/c I am town.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: MathBlade

Here you go I am helping.

Seriously the game is unlosable.

[MathBlade]

if you're town why can't you just be wrong and NM forgot to put in his kill order at night?

who do you think would decide to "nokill" to frame cowman?

Anyone who knows Not Mafia.

[MathBlade]

Mathblade: This setup is unloseable if town don't throw!


Also Mathblade: I'll commit suicide, lets vote me out.

Yes.
Because elimming me as I am in the PoE is protown.

It proves the setup is busted and we win no matter what or there’s deep wolves win win

[MathBlade]

if math is scum, he is traitor scum and protecting NM main scum imo.

i dont see a world where mathblade main scum forgets to submit NK and then spends the entire day hard defending the person most likely to be blamed for "forgetting to submit the NK"

I am not scum but this is the first thing I agree with for a while.

If I am scum I woulda killed Titus last night. Just sayin

One of my theories is you're a traitor.

Then prove it.

Elim me. Prove the setup is busted. I flip town and y’all win no matter what.

Who cares?

For someone who is apathetic, you're sure up late and passionate. Stop the apathetic egghead routine and read people by behavior.

I have and determined long as we continue in the PoE we win or prove Chaos scum.
Chaos town Gamma has a gun, elim Gamma.

Gamma town we still win because of confs.

Or we stick with the same PoE and win that way.

I just happen to be in that PoE

[MathBlade]

It proves the setup is busted and we win no matter what or there’s deep wolves win win

how does eliminating you prove the setup is busted?

Because it proves I am town and that I am not scum lying.

My setup spec is one of the most respected here in terms of scum play/balance.

Like you don’t get how good.

Down to in Gistou killed an entire scum team good.

Like I almost get into modding then realize I don’t have the time for it.

[MathBlade]

So Math, explain to me how a Chaos/Koba team doesn't win by eliminating you, Ari, and Luke to win?

Assuming the setup is true Chaos has to give results each night.

Scum kill you then Gamma checks and innos someone in the PoE.

Scum kill Gamma then you protect someone in the PoE. Then scum kill you.

Then you get an elo with Chaos Koba scum with probably Not Mafia Ari Me and Luke.

In that, Koba is town from Gamma saying Vanilla forcing Koba to be a goon.

Chaos then has to lie and say Koba didn’t have a gun

This means that he doesn’t have the PR results he should as town Chaos checks in the PoE and innos them.

Chaos is damned if you do damned if you don’t

[MathBlade]

Good night I really should do my shot
Don’t know why I keep coming back to this

[MathBlade]

Yeah I buy Gamma+Titus only PRs here.

Informed about 3 people with BTSC chat = 1 PR
Neighbor Traitor vs goon = -1 scum PR

So I think it balances pretty well

[MathBlade]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

Plus informed isn’t even normal unless it’s attached to a PR so the fact there’s open info like that is really more 1.5 vs 1. So…

I buy it.

[MathBlade]

I mean mafia doc vs town jailkeeper can’t be the setup as then mafia doc never endgames
So that leaves neighbor scum the only possible end game slot in that scenario and it’s the only slot that can be guiltied by both PRa

So yes literally if you’re town we should be in don’t throw and win territory.

[MathBlade]

I mean mafia doc vs town jailkeeper can’t be the setup as then mafia doc never endgames

ftr i stil don't understand why this is a thing.

Pretend townjailkeeper is silly and claims post 1. Mafia would never claim post one.

Rolecop finding a doc is no longer an innocent it’s a direct guilty.
Meaning that anyone rolecop checks doctor, neighbor, neighbor traitor is a guilty
Making it a de facto alignment cop

So mafia doctor cannot end game because JK + doc way too much protection for a mini normal.

[MathBlade]

why can't the mafia doc endgame? they don't have to actually claim the fact they're a doc, no?

Gamma rolecop and Chaos informed only 1 gun make that impossible though.

can't endgame if there's a guilty on them? isn't this true for like, every scum?

If you assume a traitor both roles have to have the capability of endgaming. If they can’t it becomes unwinnable for scum.

[MathBlade]

So if I go with this you have
Odd night alignment cop
Informed Townie + capable of getting one guilty + informed of entire setup thanks to opener
Loyal Jailkeeper

Vs
Mafia doctor
Neighbor
Neighbor traitor

Not balanced.

[MathBlade]

but literally all i'm seeing is "maf doc can't endgame because they return a guilty to the rolecop" when the odds of getting checked by a rolecop are not 100%.

Odds of scum getting a guilty on Umlaut or doctor are incredibly high though for N1.

Even not accounting for play. Assume town mis yeet

Then you have 2/10 chance of checking a scum with a guilty for the rolecop
1/10 for gunsmith

Odds of both not happening is 8/10*9/10

So odds of one happening is 1-(72/100) = 38% before posting.

Add in posting influencing you’re looking at a 50% guilty rate on N1

[MathBlade]

Btw the 10 comes from 13 alive at start. Town misyeets down to 12. Can’t check self so 11. I think I messed up and took out traitor by mistake but slightly less but you get the idea.

Gunsmith and rolecop can’t fire same night

[MathBlade]

and what if there's another power role in town

pedit: omega, you shouldn't go by mods, you should go by designers. the person modding the game isn't necessarily the one who made it.

If there is another PR in town that’s functionally irrelevant to the calculation.

You’d need some pretty high scum power to stop 25% guilty on N1 before posting.

[MathBlade]

The point is scum are screwed before they even post with the given setup and there is 0% chance I approve this.

If Gamma checks either doctor or neighbor traitor it’s auto loss for the game.

This works for 4 scum not three

[MathBlade]

and what if there's another power role in town

pedit: omega, you shouldn't go by mods, you should go by designers. the person modding the game isn't necessarily the one who made it.

If there is another PR in town that’s functionally irrelevant to the calculation.

You’d need some pretty high scum power to stop 25% guilty on N1 before posting.

no, i was asking, how does the math (haha) look like then

say there's another investigative

Depends on how many scum they can guilty and when they can fire.

[MathBlade]

Agreed Datisi, this is more arguing the point by Math that there's no way a town doc and JK can be in a mini normal, his setup spec and odds calculations are biased around what he thinks is balanced, and I don't think he has a good handle on it.

I think I do considering I have been suggested an entire setup.

Let’s look at the strategies scum could take to win:
1) Can’t bus. Foregone conclusion
2) Must fake claim VT without knowing to do so
3) Can’t ever be checked despite setup balance relying on them being checked for innos

This setup 100% does not work

[MathBlade]

they can fire every night, guilty all scum / get hardclears at first, later on it gets a bit more ambiguous

Then n1 you’re looking at
Not 8/11 and
Not 9/11 and
Not 10/11

1 - .54 roughly 45% chance a guilty doesn’t occur before posting

[MathBlade]

So game = 45% auto loss for scum especially with no bus

[MathBlade]

The problem is you get into combinatorics.

Each individual event on its own is unlikely.

Together you have to figure out the odds of not each and subtracting from 1.

So the way to do it is figure out the odds of each PR getting a guilty: say X, Y, and Z.

Then the odds of all those things not happening is 1 - (X*Y*Z).

The more PRs you add the more that number grows.

So now you can run it for yourself Datisi.

[MathBlade]

viewtopic.php?p=12934461#p12934461

It’s the main problem with the percentages Mastina has here.

She takes into account each role and how often it individually would itself get one.
But doesn’t take into account the cross PR factor of at least one happening.

[MathBlade]

but it looks like it's not auto loss considering the game is still going, so

part of me is wondering if this is something stupid like math/n_m realizing they're getting choked by the poe and the setup and looking for an out where they can.

math, i know some basic math stuff, but i don't think it's helpful here, because i don't know if mastina makes setups with math like that in mind. i feel like i may be completely insane but i want to believe in the power roles.

hnnng i need titus here

we're at... math/n_m or koba/omega or what can even be left anymore i don't know
probably a few teams
luke fits like. almost anywhere i think?

pedit: i do not have the brainpower to read that right now, i'll try later

Yes the game is still going but that doesn’t mean anything.

A game could have everyone be an alignment cop and still be going. << This never gets approved extreme example
A game’s still going status is fundamentally irrelevant.

I don’t believe any other PR could exist especially not one than can guilty three scum N1.

A 45% autoloss rate with no bus is too big.

[MathBlade]

I don’t believe any other PR could exist especially not one than can guilty three scum N1.

wouldn't it be really funny if i now claimed pr that can guilty three scum on n1

It would. It would just make me more sure there’s a scum in Chaos/Gamma/Titus/you since if that is true and the suggested setup is true scum like can’t win lol

[MathBlade]

Take that Garfield game for example

You have 9,9,6,27 percent rounded for sake of simplicity.

The odds of all missing is 1 - (.91 * .91 * .94 * .73) on N1.
56% chance of one of those happening
43% chance of none happening

(All percentages round of round close enough)

There’s a reason it was one of the quickest normals.
Scum were underpowered as many have said.

This is pretty much auto if Datisi is town all PR claimants are true and a PR that can guilty scum.

[MathBlade]

These percentages also don’t take into account what if town also gets innos too.

Not enough mods do a combinatorics check to see if a setup is viable.

[MathBlade]

Take that Garfield game for example

You have 9,9,6,27 percent rounded for sake of simplicity.

The odds of all missing is 1 - (.91 * .91 * .94 * .73) on N1.
56% chance of at least one of those happening
43% chance of none happening

(All percentages round of round close enough)

There’s a reason it was one of the quickest normals.
Scum were underpowered as many have said.

This is pretty much auto if Datisi is town all PR claimants are true and a PR that can guilty scum.

Pedit fix a typo

[MathBlade]

There’s a reason it was one of the quickest normals.

i thought it was because i caught scum on page 3 and turboyeeted them

however, yes, if i am town, all power role claims are town (titus/gamma/omega), that means koba must be town too due to dual result, remains 4 people, 2 scum and 2 town, and we have 2 town misyeets to spare, so.

I don’t doubt this.
But even if you hadn’t by numbers it would be done super fast

[MathBlade]

Both chaos and gamma said they would have results today, so if it is 1 scum + 1 traitor at this point, they would have to no kill to get a result

Why are we so sure that this game has a traitor again? I thought it was originally so there was room for a town neighbor, but no one claimed town neighbor, so couldn't there just still be 3 group scum?

because omega claimed informed of 1 scum gun, and if there's no traitor that must mean there's 2 scum doctors, and nobody other than me is dumb enough to put multiple scum doctors into the same game

i'm not sure either gamma or omega actually no kill to get a result there, since scum!omega would know that town!gamma comes up as having a gun, and scum!gamma would know that town!koba comes up as vt

Would he though?
Koba could have been a negative PR role.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler:

If everyone decides Alch is the better pick I can defer your death but you die today or you die tomorrow pretty much

cool, check me then.

granted you probably die if town tonight so if you are alive, there better be a green check with my name on it.

because gamma's role is clearly odd night and he should have a 100% confiremd green or red check.

with the setup info - a role cop is literally an alignment cop.

Vts don't exist because?

scum neighbor shows up as neighbor.

can't hide from rolecop.

because gamma's role is clearly odd night and he should have a 100% confiremd green or red check.

with the setup info - a role cop is literally an alignment cop.

Vts don't exist because?

scum neighbor shows up as neighbor.

can't hide from rolecop.

Right. Vts are a thing. False neighbor.

imma just let you figure out why this is a bad statement.

hint: what does VT show up on for a rolecop report vs what does a neighbor show up as on a rolecop report.

this looked like a vt soft to me but /shrug

in any case, i'm not too worried about gamma being scum, because if gamma is scum that means omega is also scum, and then town power roles are ??? loyal jailkepper ???

Why does gamma scum = omega scum?

[MathBlade]

because omega (1) said there's no scum with guns left and (2) confirmed gamma as having a gun (rolecops have a gun). so if gamma is scum, omega must be too.

Or Gamma is a Joat with a doctor in it?

[MathBlade]

And one of the others is an invest not rolecop

[MathBlade]

Ah fair enough.

So chaos has to be scum or Titus is.
I don’t think Titus is so Chaos by PoE.

[MathBlade]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... al_version

Yeah if Datisi is town I don’t see how Chaos is or scum just lose this.

[MathBlade]

it's the same a pt cop, except for:

- mailman returns a positive result
- a person alone in a pt returns a negative result.

n1 checked umlaut, got a can communicate. i very subtly softed this on d2, you may have noticed.

n2 i checked alch, got no result. (soft in 1656 - "not sure where to go now")

n3 i checked mathblade, got a cannot communicate. (soft in 2655 - "dreams don't always come true", i talked about having a dream where math was scum earlier in the game.) this is why i said that we don't yeet him before another scum has flipped, because then we get insight on the scum pt distributions. a traffic analyst gets a "cannot communicate" result (false clear, basically) on people that are alone in their pt. right now, there's no way to know if the remaining two scum are in a pt together (which would make this a hardclear), or if the team is something like {mafia doctor, mafia neighbour, mafia traitor neighbour} which would make my result literally worthless.

I told you your keyboard was broken *shrug*

[MathBlade]

Turns out both our naked votes were softing guilties, lol.

yep, and i absolutely ran with "guys i was just covering for chaos i realized he had a guilty i wanted to protect the power roles scum thought i was so good they actually tried to shoot me " all while i was hysterically laughing irl

To be fair I thought you were the one with a guilty and was shading you.

I was literally telling Titus “stop townreading Dat so he doesn’t get shot”

Instead she just protects you and I saw your soft and not hers lol

I was so busy getting scum to kill T3 who was not a PR role it was like doh

[MathBlade]

More accurately I just thought she was insulting me

[MathBlade]

I mean assume all are town and proposed setup.

Rolecop guilty or inno (eventually for that role no matter who)
Gunsmith Informed of setup making scum doctor a forced thing
PT analyst guilty or inno (because of OP)
Loyal JK which is a delayed IC even if never acts

At the end of N1 you have 4 conf townies and 0-2 more, plus possible guilty.

I don’t see how this passes a review

[MathBlade]

Technically if we assume doctor, neighbor, traitor

PT analyst can check any scum
Gunsmith can get a scum and knows to ignore innos
Rolecop anything it gets is a hard check.
If rolecop says X is a doctor then Gunsmith says X is scum because informed

So yeah this doesn’t pass review

[MathBlade]

if next scum flip is a mafia neighbour = scum was most likely all in a hood together, math is cleared (if game not over)

i *think* the only way this is not true is if math is a mafia traitor neighbourizer who decided to holster for the whole game, but i kinda don't buy it?

and yes, i'm not gambiting for shits. ask koba what happened last time i did that.

And there would need to be 3 people in a PT at the start of the game, so it would have to be a mafia neighbor traitor neighborizer? Just gonna pretend this isn't possible and move on.

Not a PT
Behind the scenes chat.

Could be multiple PTs.

I am not scum but this is wrong

[MathBlade]

what's the difference

Chaos said 3 people in A PT.

Assuming the setup is as suggested
Could have started mafia doctor + Umlaut in first PT
Umlaut + traitor in second

[MathBlade]

So assuming the setup is Mafia Doc + Mafia Neighbor + Mafia Traitor Neighbor, Datisi gets no useful results after Umlaut dies because they're both in a PT by themselves.

i could kinda see this being a thing, considering there's only one scum you could potentially guilty, and while i can guilty any of them, i effectively lose my pr after umlaut dies. that would make the rolecop the actually strong investigative, and he's odd-night. the jailkeeper cannot help follow the cop.

i can see this being a thing. it's very stupid and townsided but i can see it being a thing.

wondering if we should yeet chaos anyway, bc if he's town then both gamma and koba are conftowned, and titus and i can only be scum together (and don't even try it) so that's 4 townies going into night with 8 alive, which wouldn't be too bad, especially since then odds of it being something like math/n_m increases a lot.

Agreed it’s stupid and townsided and probably unwinnable for scum but if Chaos is town then it’s likely what happened. So yay autowin! Here we come.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Chaos

I think we vote Chaos for the autowin scenario.

If he is town then we lock firm a bunch and if he is scum then we got a scum or traitor so yay!?

[MathBlade]

How is voting me autowin again?

Because assuming you’re town flipping you gives more confirmed town than anything.

Gamma and Koba become lock.
Datisi is lock because Datisi +Titus can’t exist

Gamma + Koba + Datisi + Titus = 4 conf town

PoE is too small.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Chaos

I think we vote Chaos for the autowin scenario.

If he is town then we lock firm a bunch and if he is scum then we got a scum or traitor so yay!?

it's not autowin. town!his death results in 4 confirmed townies, we need 5 for auto.

Keep in mind I know I am town.

It’s autowin to me

[MathBlade]

How is voting me autowin again?

Because assuming you’re town flipping you gives more confirmed town than anything.

Gamma and Koba become lock.
Datisi is lock because Datisi +Titus can’t exist

Gamma + Koba + Datisi + Titus = 4 conf town

PoE is too small.

Then why not lim twice in the PoE assuming all those are conftown, if neither of the lims are on scum, then lim me?

Because one lim to achieve the result is better than three and we know if the PoE is valid?

[MathBlade]

I think Not Mafia is trolling lol

[MathBlade]

I think dude is trolling he does that when things get tense

[MathBlade]

I have to go to work. Bbl

[MathBlade]

i think i'm definitely not buying all 5 prs against a scumteam like the one that would have to be real if all of us are telling the truth.

i'm town, gamma cannot be scum without omega anyway, and titus would (1) have to be a blocker (which itself would make omega +++scum since according to him, the last remaining scum doesn't have a gun so what the fuck is scum!titus in town!omega world) and (2) she's literally throwing by those night actions if scum.

i think the play here is yeet one of n_m/omega, then yeet the other one if the first one is green. thoughts?

So wait you agree with me now that not mafia claims but didn’t before? Like I am on my lunch break but assuming you Chaos Gamma Not Mafia all fire that’s north of 60% guilty without a post easily.

I am more likely to believe you no killed twice.

It’s bad enough with just you.

Like I don’t want to run the numbers here but N2 at least makes some sense.

[MathBlade]

That’s from the top of my head. I don’t want to spend the time I have to eat with percentages.

I say elim Chaos and if Chaos flips town revisit this.

[MathBlade]

Could be just quite possible Mastina put in a broken setup expected us to question how broken it is then just chip away at PRs.

So let’s just see if anyone is confirmed or if Chaos is just scum with Datisi having tried to do the kill N2 and then tried to frame NM today or needed his results.

[MathBlade]

So wait you agree with me now that not mafia claims but didn’t before?

yes, i was able to see 4 prs. like we've seen that townsidedness before (garfield). 5 is a stretch.

It’s not the amount that’s the entire problem. It’s they all coincide on same nights.

Makes me wonder if Chaos flips informed gunsmith for scum informed of the setup,
You originally want to skate by as VT sacrifice Umlaut put in the PT crumb hoping someone bites but Not Mafia being the trolly player he is wasn’t looking because well he is him.

It gets around Gamma’s rolecop as he claims informed of something.

[MathBlade]

From a purely setup spec perspective Not Mafia fits a lot more than yours.

[MathBlade]

Then Datisi no killed twice. I just have to find out why.

[MathBlade]

There is no reason to be against a Chaos elim yet he is.

That means Datisi is scum with Chaos

[MathBlade]

Wait Datisi wouldn’t know Titus is loyal! So in order to keep his charade he has to pretend to be blocked but then no one is left to do the kill!

[MathBlade]

Then Datisi can’t have an N3 check if loyal if Titus blocks her so he can’t kill again!

[MathBlade]

Wait Datisi wouldn’t know Titus is loyal! So in order to keep his charade he has to pretend to be blocked but then no one is left to do the kill!

*sigh*

So Datisi detected my crumbs and no killed? That's your theory?

That’s my current theory
Otherwise he’d be voting Chaos for the lock town and GG no re we all win.

[MathBlade]

you mean, when deciding to vote between the person that pushed a guilty on scum on d2 and a person that's been doing jack shit, claimed vt in mass and then changed claim and claimed to have an inno on a person he didn't try to save from a misyeet, i'm actually thinking about which kne should be voted for? damn, you got me, obvscum right here.

This is smarm. Titus smarm. Like you did this during Resistance smarm

[MathBlade]

Then Datisi can’t have an N3 check if loyal if Titus blocks her so he can’t kill again!

Huh? I blocked no one n3.

You didn’t get a chance to crumb it though.

If Datisi kills and you block him thems the ball game. He can’t claim a result on N3 anymore

Then when asked and he says a result conf scum

The only safe move is no kill

[MathBlade]

Wait Datisi wouldn’t know Titus is loyal! So in order to keep his charade he has to pretend to be blocked but then no one is left to do the kill!

*sigh*

So Datisi detected my crumbs and no killed? That's your theory?

That’s my current theory
Otherwise he’d be voting Chaos for the lock town and GG no re we all win.

I'm not voting Chaos yet either...

But you’re not resisting it either

[MathBlade]

how is voting chaos locktown win. without assuming you're town.

+2 confs means. Well I assume I am town lol I can’t not because I am

Gtg lunch is over

[MathBlade]

Then Datisi can’t have an N3 check if loyal if Titus blocks her so he can’t kill again!

Huh? I blocked no one n3.

You didn’t get a chance to crumb it though.

If Datisi kills and you block him thems the ball game. He can’t claim a result on N3 anymore

Then when asked and he says a result conf scum

The only safe move is no kill

This argument can apply to Chaos since that was my last crumb but applying it to Datisi is such a strech

You asked me for moonlogic

This is where I am at.

If Chaos is scum it’s probably with Datisi.

If Chaos is town then yay two conf town and mod broken setup all PR claims are probably true elim in the PoE and call it a game

[MathBlade]

Then Datisi can’t have an N3 check if loyal if Titus blocks her so he can’t kill again!

Huh? I blocked no one n3.

You didn’t get a chance to crumb it though.

If Datisi kills and you block him thems the ball game. He can’t claim a result on N3 anymore

Then when asked and he says a result conf scum

The only safe move is no kill

sure i can, when titus is in the graveyard and cannot reveal that she blocked me.

besides, how does no killing help me here? and even then, i didn't have to claim pr as scum.

Free elim of Not Mafia
Claim results on me for cred trying to buddy me
Keep fake confirm
Three ideas for starters

[MathBlade]

Maths recent stances have me confused...

Math, where was dats resisting the chaos wagon?

Last I saw, he said "we should elim chaos or notmafia"

He’s not willing to elim Chaos never has been.

[MathBlade]

oh, and at the time i didn't even know she was loyal. from scum!me's pov, i either successfully kill her or my kill fails and i know she blocked me. i wouldn't be having to guess. or like, i would think that i wouldn't have, so i would kill her, and then the kill would go through.

part of the reason why i want to flip n_m first is because i have a math/n_m theory because they've both been screaming against chaos for so long. maybe i'm confbiasing but shrug

Always with the excuses

If it’s me + NM scum aren’t going to kill us and you can free miselim me or NM tomorrow.

Unless you’re traitor scum PR and Chaos is main and there is no tomorrow if Chaos dies.

Chaos is objectively the better play here.

If chaos happens to be town then game is busted scum auto lose no matter what and I get my win no matter what.

I am just concerned about deep wolfing

[MathBlade]

If Chaos is town then yay two conf town and mod broken setup all PR claims are probably true elim in the PoE and call it a game

so if chaos!town, that magically makes all pr claims town, huh? you wouldn't wanna go n_m after? >_>

also. again. didn't wanna elim the claimed pr that was obviously softing a guilty. i am scum because of that. sure.

Nope. The fifth claim makes it more likely all auto town especially him claiming N2 of same role
Too stupid for scum to claim as Gamma just checks him

[MathBlade]

It’s literally our game to lose and elimming Chaos whatever his alignment makes this autowin

[MathBlade]

If chaos happens to be town then game is busted scum auto lose no matter what and I get my win no matter what.

i don't see this. you keep saying this, but it's not autowin. unless you can present me a path to town victory that doesn't rely on you being town, it's not autowin.

ok. say we elim chaos today and he's green. how do you guarantee a town win from that?

4 conf town one dies.
3 conf town alive 7 alive
2 conf town 5 alive. << here is where auto lock happens
Both scum alive have to get the Townie elimmed or sacrifice their own. Conf town revealed here

[MathBlade]

2 conf town 5 alive. << here is where auto lock happens
Both scum alive have to get the Townie elimmed or sacrifice their own. Conf town revealed here

how is this auto win?

Because two scum pushing on same player they are out as scum
Therefore scum have no control meaning townies decide twice

Barring Town mistake autowin

[MathBlade]

Math, why are you supposing that Datisi understood my crumbs when you didn't?

Because Datisi is better than me at social cues with you. I get too paranoid of you scum or assume that you’re mocking me like with the gem reference

[MathBlade]

actually they have to get both scum so only 33% win

2 conf town 5 alive. << here is where auto lock happens
Both scum alive have to get the Townie elimmed or sacrifice their own. Conf town revealed here

how is this auto win?

Because two scum pushing on same player they are out as scum
Therefore scum have no control meaning townies decide twice

Barring Town mistake autowin

this is just nonsensical to me

It’s autowin. Scum can’t push anyone
No valid move in elo = loss

Ran into the problem in Calculasia which shoulda been a loss

[MathBlade]

2 conftowns + 2 scums + 1 nonconftown is not autowin

It is though.

Scum can’t push anyone.

It’s autowin scum can’t do anything

[MathBlade]

Ran into the problem in Calculasia which shoulda been a loss

Yet it wasn't soo not autowin.

Find his partner.

I did Chaos and Datisi and if Chaos is town it’s literally idgaf gg we win

[MathBlade]

What I think math is saying is if both scum try to push the remaining townie they lose, the issue there is they aren’t obligated to do that

Then they bus and they’re outed for bussing.

It’s a no win situation for scum.

[MathBlade]

Ran into the problem in Calculasia which shoulda been a loss

Yet it wasn't soo not autowin.

Find his partner.

I did Chaos and Datisi and if Chaos is town it’s literally idgaf gg we win

I am never voting Datisi. Try again.

Or I have tomorrow to convince you if Chaos flips red.

I literally Gotta go

[MathBlade]

What I think math is saying is if both scum try to push the remaining townie they lose, the issue there is they aren’t obligated to do that

Then they bus and they’re outed for bussing.

It’s a no win situation for scum.

Okay now you’ve lost me, how does bussing out them? They’re not obligated to cross bus either

We know scum are forced to bus so anyone not conf on the wagon looks sus
Scum can’t bus and can’t not bus
Ergo they lose

[MathBlade]

but this game there shouldn't be a bulletproof traitor since the traitor starts in a neighborhood with the scum neighbor.

also I would murder everyone for my precious Datisi but I am good and Titus promised me he is too soooooooooo

There shouldn’t be a 40% chance of auto guilty N1 either.

That goes both ways. BP traitor makes sense. Can’t believe I didn’t think of it.

[MathBlade]

I think that’s anyone who’s town’s posts.

[MathBlade]

That reads one of two things neither of which are protown to share yet. Regardless I think a scum in Chaos, Datisi, Gamma, and Titus is quite high regardless of which explanation I go down.

Premise A: (Secret premise)
If Premise A is true then scum likely think Premise A is true and therefore would vote Umlaut.
If Premise A is not true then scum likely think they may get a free elim by hopping on without discussion like everyone else.

Math, did you ever explain what this secret premise was?

Premise A was a player having a guilty on Umlaut

[MathBlade]

If I assume Datisi town
Not Mafia being even night TA makes sense because once any TA claims the other says “nuh uh” and then one gets elimmed and the other shot.

If I assume Datisi scum
Not Mafia’s PR is even night thus removing the 40%+ problem

If I assume all town then the idea is that town PRs get discredited by the setup. It’s absolutely horrible balance because all fire same night but then I see the mod intent behind it.

[MathBlade]

And Koba shoots down their own argument calling me bad scum

1) I am never bad scum
2) If I am open wolfing why not elim me?
3) Literally everyone sees what I see now and it’s a bad setup from a balance perspective so like okay?

Chaos is literally a “we win” no matter what elim.
Anyone against that to me is scum.
You could have Chaos be mod confirmed IC and I wouldn’t care because elimming him wins the game

[MathBlade]

If I assume Datisi town
Not Mafia being even night TA makes sense because once any TA claims the other says “nuh uh” and then one gets elimmed and the other shot.

If I assume Datisi scum
Not Mafia’s PR is even night thus removing the 40%+ problem

re: the first scenario - i don't think mastina does that. i know she has a policy where it's a Good Thing that no power roles can outright be guessed as town just because they claimed (barring like, ic's), but i don't know any game she made where the specific intent was that the two claimed power roles murder each other

re: the second scenario - you were complaining about titus + gamma + omega being too powerful for town. but now, titus + gamma + omega + not_mafia is not a problem?

Mastina has made some OP setups as of late. Once a PR claims a result it’s instantly thought of as town in most people’s minds. If this is a Mastina thing and everyone here is town she didn’t follow that rule even before NM’s claim so I don’t see your point.

Correct. Not Mafia cannot fire on the same night as everyone else so the odds of an unmitigated guilty become a lot less.

[MathBlade]

Chaos is literally a “we win” no matter what elim.

this is false

stop saying things that are false

4 confirmed townies with 8 alive isn't autowin

2 confirmed townies in a final 5 isn't autowin

It like is though.
Each non conf player is in the world the other two are scum.
You can ISO each player and see which pairs make sense.

Assuming town doesn’t throw that’s GG.

[MathBlade]

Correct. Not Mafia cannot fire on the same night as everyone else so the odds of an unmitigated guilty become a lot less.

???

loyal jailkeeper + informed gunsmith + 2-shot rolecop + n1 firing traffic analyst = overpowered town

loyal jailkeeper + informed gunsmith + 2-shot rolecop + even-night traffic analyst = fair and balanced?

Fixed it for you.

I have known you were going to claim PT related role for a long time. Just because I don’t say it doesn’t mean I don’t factor it into my decision

[MathBlade]

viewtopic.php?p=12817491&user_select%5B ... #p12817491

Can you explain the difference Datisi?

The only difference I find is with you than Umlaut here, but I am also horrible at meta reads so I am hoping you can go “Math you dumb dumb this is why” in a super nice way

ok so i skimmed the linked iso and purely from it, i cannot. umlaut is perfectly able to be low-impact / useless early as either alignment, and any difference in his d1 here and d1 in the linked game that i point out will be more my own confbias than anything. (d2+ in that game is not applicable because early d2 there he claimed a somewhat-confirmed roleblock, so obvious different play afterwards.)

if we were to talk about his response to pressure, which is kinda what is cementing him being scum here imo, that game is a bad comparison too because he was never in any danger. (i think i was the only non-rvs vote on him throughout the whole game.) i feel like i have seen town!umlaut be under pressure and actually Produce Content to try to get the wagon off of him, but for the life of me i can't find a Proper example.

viewtopic.php?p=12716478&user_select%5B ... #p12716478

this comes to mind as an example of what i'm talking about wrt scum!umlaut, lylo where we were aligning to vote umlaut, and what he did was make a post here and there to not get replaced, make a weak vote that he wasn't actually trying to push at all, and mostly just shut the fucc up.

compared to this: viewtopic.php?t=84074&f=52&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

(open 794, dual iso of town!umlaut with the mod so you can follow the wagons of the game and his posting amount)

not a Perfect example since, while he was a leading then competing wagon for a good amount of d1, he was never quite that close to getting yeeted, but i think it still illustrates that town!umlaut actually Tries.

again compared to this game, it feels like here he's planking and purposefully not saying anything. like, seriousy. he voted ari because of "white knighting" (and also shaded math for it too) even though ari is literally voting for him (and he'd already acknowledged that vote earlier too). he got called out for it, did he actually give any thought to his vote? or explain why he thought ari was white-knighting him? he did not, he just went ahead to argue with you (math) and say "well but these math posts ~feel~ like white knighting" like seriously why is he still breathing.

i am tired and i have a headache so if you have any more q's please leave them below and i will get to them within the next 3-5 business days. there have been a few things i wanted to recheck, mostly give all of omega/alchemist/lukewarm a reread, because i did like what i skimmed from omega today, but that is sure as hell not happening tonight.

Perfect Tries >> PT

This means you either have a PT or are claiming a PT type role.

If you claimed VT I run you up faster than anything because you’d be a liar

[MathBlade]

Correct. Not Mafia cannot fire on the same night as everyone else so the odds of an unmitigated guilty become a lot less.

???

loyal jailkeeper + informed gunsmith + 2-shot rolecop + n1 firing traffic analyst = overpowered town

loyal jailkeeper + informed gunsmith + 2-shot rolecop + even-night traffic analyst = fair and balanced?

Fixed it for you.

I have known you were going to claim PT related role for a long time. Just because I don’t say it doesn’t mean I don’t factor it into my decision

What made you think that dats was a pt pr?

And what made you think that he was not something like, even night, which would have made it the same as the bottom row?

Naked vote on Umlaut.

[MathBlade]

Datisi’s shift key is notoriously broken.

It working for two random letters meant something.

[MathBlade]

Math, do you think Datisi is scum?

Only if you are.

If you’re town then *shrug* we win and whatever.

[MathBlade]

Perfect Tries >> PT

This means you either have a PT or are claiming a PT type role.

If you claimed VT I run you up faster than anything because you’d be a liar

...

that wasn't a soft, that was me Putting Emphasis On Those Words

like look at my iso, i talk like that constantly. and i've never crumbed in that way before ever, nor would i, because i'm known for "obscure 7-layer crumbs that you wouldn't crack in 10 years".

however, this does make your behaviour make slightly more sense, and i'm slightly less inclined to kill you.

Have you met me?

If you assume I am scum then assume your crumbs are cracked.

In Shadowrun I got the exact PR over one word screwdriver and rather than shooting them I buddied them to end game

And I did run a brief skim before then didn’t see a single capital unless eyesight is going bad.

Like I make PRs work for me as scum not whatever this is.