Mini Normal 2276: Around the World - Game Over!

[Ausuka]

does marci/johnny make any sense

i am not 100% on freedom being scum bc i know that he knows how to post as scum, even if the situation is bad

so i'm not sure if i buy that he's avoiding the game bc he doesn't know what to post

idk this game is really difficult with absolutely nobody playing

Dats I would like to hear more about this rh9 meta

[Ausuka]

it would have been pretty hilarious if that was a lolhammer

[Ausuka]

prism's guardians, i think open 840

wow but there's no Datisi in this game. I wonder who that Tanner fellow is

[Ausuka]

gamma/marci solve isn't even particularly easy, they both have decent activity

freedom/johnny would probably be the easiest solve, but tbh a solve being easy doesn't make it wrong

i think freedom/marci is my favourite team but like. I think it's probably not that. I don't have a massive amount of read confidence so to speak.

[Ausuka]

I kind of just want a flip now tbh >.>

[Ausuka]

I mean that's fair I'm not demanding you hammer now

I'm just bloodthirsty and tired of thinking

[Ausuka]

i wasn't reading pyp closely since it was p boring

[Ausuka]

I will say I think Freedom's behaviour is fairly clear cut the scummiest of anyone and the role claim is also probably the worst. Shoshin is the only thing that makes me doubt that push.

Why is my claim bad?

I missed this - I think
1) Town needs significant power and also needs plenty of VTs. Both of our roles are effectively useless and therefore fairly unlikely to coexist, although I wouldn't rule it out because loltrollgame and I don't fully understand what balances a normal game.
2) It's somewhat odd you're the only neighbour who's vanilla. I could see you possibly being some form of scummy mafia PR who didn't want to either trueclaim or make up a claim so just claimed vanilla neighbour.

I agree with 1) and the first sentence of 2) but I disagree on the second one. If I was an actual PR, why would I fakeclaim after receiving your Mailman message?
You literally gave me a headsup on what claims I could make and you wouldn't find it bad.
Why ignore you?

I don't think I did?? I said you were probably a PR but that didn't mean you would know what exactly to claim

[Ausuka]

I will say I think Freedom's behaviour is fairly clear cut the scummiest of anyone and the role claim is also probably the worst. Shoshin is the only thing that makes me doubt that push.

Why is my claim bad?

I missed this - I think
1) Town needs significant power and also needs plenty of VTs. Both of our roles are effectively useless and therefore fairly unlikely to coexist, although I wouldn't rule it out because loltrollgame and I don't fully understand what balances a normal game.
2) It's somewhat odd you're the only neighbour who's vanilla. I could see you possibly being some form of scummy mafia PR who didn't want to either trueclaim or make up a claim so just claimed vanilla neighbour.

I agree with 1) and the first sentence of 2) but I disagree on the second one. If I was an actual PR, why would I fakeclaim after receiving your Mailman message?
You literally gave me a headsup on what claims I could make and you wouldn't find it bad.
Why ignore you?

I don't think I did?? I said you were probably a PR but that didn't mean you would know what exactly to claim

But I would know that claiming a PR would impress you more than claiming Vanilla.

I think this is has some legitimacy but claiming PR also carries risks - you're more likely to get caught in a lie, and you're more likely to have to explain why you weren't nightkilled, for example

[Ausuka]

I would wait a bit for scamper I think since you're like... very active onsite I don't think there's a risk of missing the deadline

[Ausuka]

imagine if datisi is scum and intentionally lets the deadline expire

[Ausuka]

yeah, i totally do that when we're at evens and that doesn't even grant me an extra elim, you got me

since when does shin tsukimi have well thought out plans

[Ausuka]

oh ok it's gonna be like that?

[Ausuka]

VOTE: datisi I will fight you

[Ausuka]

No obviously I'm just trying to help my scumbuddy marci get her miselim

[Ausuka]

i mean it's not so much assumed that it's an easy game it's more like

what can we do? if we're wrong we're wrong, it's not like we can just see where we're going wrong so easily if we are?

[Ausuka]

their path to victory is to ml whoever in {freedom, johnny, datisi, marci, gamma?} isn't scum I suppose? idk, I'm not convinced by the idea that people can't be scum because they're not putting in the effort to change things? the poe is fairly wide and this isn't an amazing situation for town, i think there are scum players who would lurk in this situation.

[Ausuka]

No but actually yes because I'm going to fight datisi

[Ausuka]

I'm just joking around and waiting for the hammer

[Ausuka]

VOTE: freedom

I love hammering

[Ausuka]

Hi

[Ausuka]

I feel like it's not that surprising but not sure if I should say why in case it like... catches people out or something

[Ausuka]

I'm probably going to have to reread again which sucks because I'm lazy

[Ausuka]

datisi

scamper scum lolol

Marci stop daring me to vote you

[Ausuka]

omg i nearly fell why was i DIZZY

maybe out of shock that Datisi was town?

[Ausuka]

datisi

scamper scum lolol

thats ur reaction to ur main scumread flipping town?

what am i meant to react im at work for 50 more mins

boohoo datisi was town

omg i nearly fell why was i DIZZY

i mean i would expect some manner of re-evaluation rather than immediately turning around and calling me scum for ??? reasons

I mean yeah I agree

[Ausuka]

i re-evaluated and concluded Marcistar is scum with Johnny

[Ausuka]

I mean that's lazy. I'm not going to vote based on that


But like it probably is that lol

[Ausuka]

what can i say? i live in the now

Iconic tbh but also ur a wolf

[Ausuka]

Marci it's time for our siblings quarrel

To come to an end

[Ausuka]

we shall settle our differences

On the battlefield

VOTE: marcistar

[Ausuka]

I mean, given that we're at evens I don't see an issue?

But fine UNVOTE:

[Ausuka]

I don't think we should eliminate anyone today, to be serious for a moment.

I don't think we have anyone who really approaches clear status.

[Ausuka]

We should let everyone check in first though.

[Ausuka]

we shall settle our differences

On the battlefield

VOTE: marcistar

and i realize we're at evens but please don't be careless with votes

I mean, given that we're at evens I don't see an issue?

But fine UNVOTE:

I don't think we should eliminate anyone today, to be serious for a moment.

I don't think we have anyone who really approaches clear status.

look at this clown

rude

[Ausuka]

surely this time the person who i think is mafia will actually be mafia

[Ausuka]

i re-evaluated and concluded Marcistar is scum with Johnny

Why Johnny? I think Johnny is the one partner that makes no sense for Marci. In fact, I would go so far as to call him almost conftown. I don’t think any scum team with Johnny on it makes that kill except Johnny/scamper exactly.

why not? if scum Johnny kills the most obvtown vt he's going to have to answer to why he didn't make that protect

[Ausuka]

Why would scum Marci kill town datisi?

why would anyone but scum Marci kill Datisi? a town player voting another town player in melo is super powerful

[Ausuka]

surely this time the person who i think is mafia will actually be mafia

whos that

You

[Ausuka]

shrug, i probably can't change your mind if you believe that johnny is never scum from that

[Ausuka]

Do you mean "you're probably right that you can't change my mind, the situation would be too weird" or "you're probably right that Johnny could be scum but i would get weird vibes from it" or something else

[Ausuka]

I mean scum might have just thought Dats could have had another shot

[Ausuka]

i dont get why anyone could think im scum here

mm

[Ausuka]

I think your logic is sound but like I wasn't thinking about the setup because I have zero confidence in my ability to setup spec

I sometimes make setups and show them to datisi and usually he's just like "lmao this is scumsided"

[Ausuka]

Also probably I wasn't killed because I am bad at mafia lol

[Ausuka]

Like if he used it on Ausuka it'd have been useless right? Because of her being ascetic miller - am I understanding that correctly?

It actually would have been triple useless! Because I'm ascetic I can't be targeted, because I'm not vanilla he couldn't target me, and because I'm a mailman even if he could the result would have been useless

I agree whether the mafia are goons or not substantially changes the balance of the game. I guess I find it hard to see pooky using the role mafia goon which makes Johnny more likely to be town lol

[Ausuka]

i dont get why anyone could think im scum here

and that post, is actually serious

I mean I know Marci just does the bravado thing anyway but the insistence this is serious makes it feel fake?

[Ausuka]

I mean same just by poe

Maybe I wouldn't say very likely because how can I be confident of anything in this game but I couldn't really see myself voting outside those two if I'm alive tomorrow

Unless my reread changes things but I've already reread so I don't see why it would

[Ausuka]

I mean maybe it will it's just not super likely, I think I'm pretty much never going to end up townreading Marci here

[Ausuka]

Town power is presumably we have 3 confirmable roles and vig power

I think the setup works without him if the mafia are all goons although I do see your point that Pooky would probably hate to use goon instead of mafia multitasking 6 shot combined visitor bodyguard

[Ausuka]

Oh I just realised it's actually worth doing analysis tonight because I can send someone my results, cool

[Ausuka]

I'm almost definitely going for a no elimination today

[Ausuka]

Like I talk about scumreading marci and I do but it's not strong enough to not make the optimal play here

[Ausuka]

Ugh the thing is whenever Johnny actually posts I like it but I don't know if I'm just being stupid and easily manipulated

[Ausuka]

I find it difficult to see scum Alex here?? Like maybe I'm being dumb like

Ok let's say you're Alex. You're scum with idk let's say Marci. Ausuka comes in saying that the team is Marci and Johnny which would be a pretty easy line for scum Alex to follow I think. Do you immediately go and towncase Johnny and instead go after Gamma

Idk I guess he just feels like town to me

[Ausuka]

Personally I tend to assume scum bus and vote each other habitually

[Ausuka]

Yeah but Gamma and Marci were so lifeless about it yesterday. Like, those two are familiar with each other, I can't imagine them voting each other in such a boring way if they were scum

I think it's possible you're overestimating how well they know each other?

[Ausuka]

I mean idk it's tricky cos we can't just ask them and expect them to be honest about it if they're both mafia

[Ausuka]

you were defending marci on d1 with nonsense reasons and then switched to bussing her when you couldn't do so anymore, very good partner equity, i don't see the problem

Hmm

[Ausuka]

i agree his posts today are +town

[Ausuka]

VOTE: No elimination

OK - everyone's had the chance to check in. Hypothetically we could just discuss until the deadline and then no elim, but meh - if I'm alive at 5p I want to reread with the knowledge of another flip into account and I imagine most here feel the same way.

I'm submitting a fast night and hopefully you guys do too.

[Ausuka]

OK - everyone's had the chance to check in. Hypothetically we could just discuss until the deadline and then no elim, but meh - if I'm alive at 5p I want to reread with the knowledge of another flip into account and I imagine most here feel the same way.

This is sort of vaguely worded - what I'm trying to say is that I think our discussion and analysis will benefit from a flip.

[Ausuka]

Yeah but Gamma and Marci were so lifeless about it yesterday. Like, those two are familiar with each other, I can't imagine them voting each other in such a boring way if they were scum

I think it's possible you're overestimating how well they know each other?

I mean idk it's tricky cos we can't just ask them and expect them to be honest about it if they're both mafia

clown acts like u cant meta check past games

Somehow i don't think you've played enough games onsite for us to gather a comprehensive knowledge of how you and Gamma would play scum together

[Ausuka]

I'm sorry Marci :v

[Ausuka]

Because I think they do

[Ausuka]

I mean I'm not sure what answer you expect me to give here

[Ausuka]

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=87263

Interesting thread I read from MD a while ago and remembered because it's relevant to this

Statistically, in the mid to late game mafia are disproportionately likely to be on mafia wagons, and disproportionately less likely to be on town wagons (although in particular mafia are reluctant to hammer town and eager to hammer mafia)

[Ausuka]

Actually that's not particularly relevant this game because Corwin was a traitor

Did I mention that I don't like traitors

[Ausuka]

True but ur also a nerd

[Ausuka]

ok. what is your thought process on calling me a nerd

[Ausuka]

I mean I don't think you need to be asked to give thought process? If you have reasons you can just give them? I'm just usually going to assume otherwise that it's gut and you can't explain it

[Ausuka]

Idk dude it seems a bit weird to expect me to quiz everything you say for reasoning???

[Ausuka]

:shrug:

[Ausuka]

>.> I am not looking forward to rereading this game

[Ausuka]

I sent my mailman to Alex so like

That was a total waste of time as well

[Ausuka]

Ok my instinct here was that scamper is a wolf but also like

Their d1 posting looked so genuine, especially if they're scum with Marci that's really really well done

Gamma what do u think

pedit: maybe you left me alive with Gamma Emerald who has been scumreading me for ages so you could say that?

[Ausuka]

My mailman message to Alex was basically

I think scamper has been overlooked too much because of their towny d1 and I want you to reread them but it's not like a hard scumread and if you decide they're too towny to elim that's fine

I agree JF is unlikely to be a wolf,I think Marci is a fantastic elimination for tomorrow

[Ausuka]

The issue with scamper is that they're very reasonable and everything they say feels correct so I'm not sure I could bring myself to scumread them

Like from a gamestate pov I feel like they should be scum but their posts just make me think they're obvtown

I don't know

Me being alive makes me think Gamma is probably ~more likely to be town because it makes sense scum would want to take her to lylo with me and probably anti implicates JF too

[Ausuka]

very convient how u now all of a sudden agree scampers scum

YKNOW THE READ I GAVE YESTERDAY?

look at my posts this game and tell me how based on how clearly scummy ive been, i wouldve made this "plan to frame you"

if im smart enough to come up with a plan to frame you, would i not be smart enough to play a townie seeming game?

This isn't a particularly complicated plan to come up with and ability to fake towny posts isn't correlated with intelligence that strongly anyway

I'm not even particularly scumreading scamper here I just want to give them a much closer look than I have been because, you know, it's elo????

[Ausuka]

Like cut the shit Marci I know you I know you're smart enough to come up with that LMAO what are you talking about

[Ausuka]

I targeted Alex because I townread him most strongly

The mailman wouldn't have been important unless I died so the nightkill doesn't really come into it

[Ausuka]

My mailman message to Alex was basically

I think scamper has been overlooked too much because of their towny d1 and I want you to reread them but it's not like a hard scumread and if you decide they're too towny to elim that's fine

I agree JF is unlikely to be a wolf,I think Marci is a fantastic elimination for tomorrow

r u fr?

It was longer than that but that's the sumup of it

I also mentioned that I was thinking you and Marci was still possible but less confident because I thought your defense of Marci against me d1 was self righteous in a way that would be difficult for scum to fake

[Ausuka]

Okay we're doing this

VOTE: marcistar

[Ausuka]

Like cut the shit Marci I know you I know you're smart enough to come up with that LMAO what are you talking about

UR LITERALLY ACTING LIKE SCUM RN

"surely little old me couldn't come up with a plan to keep a town player alive with someone who scumreads them :pleading_face:"

I wasn't going to vote Marci right away but she voted me so whatever

[Ausuka]

I still think your reasoning was wrong I just think jf is probtown anyway

[Ausuka]

UNVOTE:

[Ausuka]

why the hell did you debate that with me just to reverse course, just to make me feel bad?

I debated it with you because I thought you were wrong

I then started to townread JF instead

I don't understand why what I said would make you feel bad

[Ausuka]

Alex was townreading Johnny and I thought his logic was decently convincing and then he died, is the main thing

I also tend to vibe with his posts when he does actually make them and I think this level of activity isn't scum indicative for him

I don't feel like incredibly strongly about JF town but have been leaning that way

[Ausuka]

I still think your reasoning was wrong I just think jf is probtown anyway

shrug, I don't understand why you're mad at me but whatever just don't grudge vote me please

[Ausuka]

I think Marci is almost definitely scum

I'm starting to think Gamma is most likely to be town of everyone

The partner is probably one of jf or scamper and I would be townleaning both independently but idk

Pedit: I mean I'm allowed to re evaluate in elo and have been calling Marci scum since forever

[Ausuka]

Pedit: I mean I'm allowed to re evaluate in elo and have been calling Marci scum since forever

so reevaluate me

point out the shit ive done thats scummy and what ive done thats towny

ok you first go point out the shit that I've done that's scummy instead of making your reads up on the fly like you've been doing all game

[Ausuka]

I would be more inclined to re evaluate you if you didn't immediately open wolf upon daystart

[Ausuka]

very convient how u now all of a sudden agree scampers scum

YKNOW THE READ I GAVE YESTERDAY?

look at my posts this game and tell me how based on how clearly scummy ive been, i wouldve made this "plan to frame you"

if im smart enough to come up with a plan to frame you, would i not be smart enough to play a townie seeming game?

I think this post comes from town very rarely

"I'm not smart enough to frame you" is such disingenuous hogwash

[Ausuka]

I'm not saying gamma/jf is impossible but I think I very rarely am convinced to vote anyone but marci today. Like sure she could be town but I think her scum probability is much higher than anyone else.

[Ausuka]

See this is difficult because

Scamper I think I know who you are but can't be certain

But if I'm right I feel like you should have me as ~never scum right now???

I'm not going to out who I think you are because that would be rude but. Idk

[Ausuka]

I can't just pretend it doesn't affect my read

[Ausuka]

That's fine, I'll be patient and not vote Marci in the near future.

Pedit: it's not overly obvious but I feel like there are some, like, structure/wording vibes in your posts that remind me of one specific person who is like really good at reading me?

[Ausuka]

Right, I mean I would like to talk more about this but it seems like for multiple reasons we won't be able to so like. Whatever

[Ausuka]

It doesn't for me just because, I expect it from him?

Like he's been scumreading me the entire game, and pushed me d3 which is the peak of when I'd say it would be very inconvenient for him to do so. He was being scumread, I was universally townread, I was never a viable ml for her

I would definitely expect her to suspect me more now I haven't been nightkilled when I arguably should have been, and I think Marci coming in and immediately pushing that narrative when she hadn't been pushing me before is like a thousand times worse and probably an attempt to take advantage of town!Gamma.

[Ausuka]

Like does no one else think it's weird how Marci plays up how "stupid" she is (she's not), comes into the day having not scumread me since like d1

And then is pretty much instantly confident enough to vote me in elo

Like that rings massive red Alarm bells

[Ausuka]

This is the second day in the row Marci has come into the thread with a totally new scumread not appearing to show any re-evaluation after someone who she wasn't townreading flipped town

[Ausuka]

lol

[Ausuka]

"ausuka is scum but I didn't share that read because ausuka didn't ask me to"

Yeah ok

[Ausuka]

You make a vaguepost calling me a clown for joking around

And then say you trust Johnny's solve more than anyone else, which had Alex as scum and me as town, while not pushing me at all and even still acting like I should take responsibility for your actions

Your entry today makes literally zero sense for town, there's no way you would re evaluate from Alex's death that quickly

[Ausuka]

You when you decided to vote me in elo

[Ausuka]

Helpful deets sounds interesting yes

[Ausuka]

I mean, same

What are your reads?

[Ausuka]

Scamper scum probably doesn't ask you guys to unvote multiple times. Also scamper scum doesn't scum hunt hard and lead a wagon in the traitor d1.

Why not?

Also I can pretty much assure you that scamper is capable of efforting and looking very towny as scum frankly

[Ausuka]

Like in my head I want it to be Marci but even if it is and we're right how do we find her partner?

scumhunting? idk I mean there's no reliable way of catching scum but I have no idea what you're trying to say

[Ausuka]

Scamper scum probably doesn't ask you guys to unvote multiple times. Also scamper scum doesn't scum hunt hard and lead a wagon in the traitor d1.

Why not?

Also I can pretty much assure you that scamper is capable of efforting and looking very towny as scum frankly

Like I think there are some good arguments for scamper town here, I think their interactions with Marci d1 were good and I'm not trying to establish a standard where nothing scamper does can be towny because they're good at the game

But "scamper scum doesn't effort" just seems simply... False

[Ausuka]

Ok I mean I agree they're very unlikely to be scum with Gamma or you

If they're scum with Marci does that really apply?

[Ausuka]

Btw can you talk about your reasoning for targeting Gamma

[Ausuka]

Marci just blurts out reads for no reason and gets real shook real often and I can't believe we let her live to Elo

To be fair, I don't think I would want anyone we eliminated in elo either

[Ausuka]

Ok so I'm going to put the proper effort into rereading at some point

Primarily, I want to weigh evidence for and against the existence of a Marci/scamper team

Secondarily, I think Marci/jf, Marci/Gamma and gamma/jf all deserve serious consideration, roughly in that order

[Ausuka]

Johnny I feel like you kinda flipped your reads on me and scamper around very quickly and as much as I prefer things this way I'm curious what changed?

[Ausuka]

Lol

[Ausuka]

Scamper I don't understand why you think Marci is town here like any substantial percentage of the time

[Ausuka]

It's so tempting but unfortunately I made a promise to my feline friend

[Ausuka]

I have read your games

I think you are simply full of it

There's no way town you votes me in elo like that I refuse to believe it

[Ausuka]

It's so tempting but unfortunately I made a promise to my feline friend

DO IT VOTE ME

ITS NOT GAMETHROWING IF U THINK IM SCUM

OH WAIT...! UR SCUM!!

Literally you are calling me sure scum while not voting me

Like you are doing the exact same thing

[Ausuka]

There's no way town you votes me in elo like that I refuse to believe it

when was the last time i made it to elo bestie?!?!?

I am making a judgement that you are intelligent enough not to do that and bet the game on a scumread that came out of nowhere with zero justification.

COME ON SCUM VOTE ME I BET U WONT

Still not voting me but brave rhetoric

[Ausuka]

im not scared

if im the miselim, so be it, nothing i can really do about it since im not known to be persuasive
but i will try my best to actually fight it when i have the time to

im confident in doing what i feel, and if its wrong, also, so be it?? like its not rrally a big deal

SO COME ON SNAKE COME FIGHT ME

BRING IT

This is actually so performative

[Ausuka]

ok TRUE but we didn't know at the time

[Ausuka]

COME VOTE ME COME DO IT

If by some miracle you are town here can you explain why you would behave like this? You act certain I'm scum but still won't vote me, so there's no way you don't understand why I wouldn't vote right now. The way you're behaving really makes it seem like you want to get me worked up somehow.

[Ausuka]

You act certain I'm scum but still won't vote me,

can say the same for u bestie

Exactly! The difference is I haven't been calling you scum for it but you have done the reverse multiple times. I feel like you're just pretending not to understand this. You are a lot more clever than you're pretending to be.

[Ausuka]

Then why has it been like pulling teeth to get you to explain any?

im just built diff 100%

nah i told u guys u can just ask but nobody cares to..

except when people ask for reasoning and it becomes clear you're making stuff up you're just like "oh I'm so silly haha" like 2914

[Ausuka]

TBH I DONT WVEN KNOW WHAT ARGUMENT IM MAKING HERE IM ARGUING JUST TO ARGUE

all i know is i think datisisisisis scum

or this moment on day 1

[Ausuka]

when havw i wveemade shit up

I feel like if you just ISO me you can find plentiful examples of me explaining when I think this happened?

[Ausuka]

If I was scum I would vote Marci here probably idk unless I was scum with marci

[Ausuka]

TBH I DONT WVEN KNOW WHAT ARGUMENT IM MAKING HERE IM ARGUING JUST TO ARGUE

all i know is i think datisisisisis scum

or this moment on day 1

i stick by my rwasoning i was not making shit up i was just arguing

Arguing for the sake of arguing is like the definition of making things up????

[Ausuka]

Oh or the thing that literally happened JUST NOW where I clearly explained how you were so full of shit and you literally just went "asuka has such high hopes for me" and ignored EVERYTHING I was saying

The only reason I am not voting you right now is out of respect for scamper's towngame. That's it

[Ausuka]

Scamper is good as town

If they are town they think it's you and Johnny and I want to give them a chance

[Ausuka]

That's to gamma but also answers marci

[Ausuka]

to review the game and make their case etc like they said they were going to

Also scamper is online apparently so obligatory not scum with scamper

[Ausuka]

How is this news to you at all

Why do you think I would unvote Marci

[Ausuka]

I think Marci and scamper is the most likely team

I know what you're getting at is that because I think scamper is scum, I should not care what they think. I think scamper is the most likely candidate for Marci's partner but I think I could very much be wrong and I don't want to be reckless in elo. I don't just assume the most likely theory in my mind is correct.

[Ausuka]

That's fair and that is certainly a possibility

I think Johnny has felt like town at points and a lot of his positions are inconvenient, eg if he's scum he tried to set up Alex as a miselim and then killed him

However scamper has played an excellent game and looked town throughout so I certainly understand where you're coming from, I would be townreading them independently

I think unfortunately a lot of my thoughts about scamper revolve around their identity and therefore there's only so much I can talk about. I know it's unfair for them too because they can't refute what I'm thinking. But like I can't just not consider how it factors into my reads if I want to play to my win condition.

[Ausuka]

ASUSUKA VOTE ME I BET YOU WONT

VOTE ME SINCE IM SUCH CLEAR SCUM U COWARD

OH WAIT ITS CUZ UR SCUM AND U WANT A TOWNIE TO VOTE ME FIRST

i can towncase myself later but whats the use fighting something so set in stone because of towns dumbassry

vote count 5.01

with 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to make a decision. day 5 ends in (expired on 2022-08-06 20:00:00).

yeet

not voting [5]:Ausuka, JohnnyFarrar, Scamper, marcistar, Gamma Emerald

flavor

Really makes you think

[Ausuka]

to review the game and make their case etc like they said they were going to

Also scamper is online apparently so obligatory not scum with scamper

online but not posting

Yeah i guess it's not confirmed

Pedit: I mean maybe ur being bussed because Ur openwolfing???.

Also scamper was possibly going to go after someone else

[Ausuka]

Uhh i feel like it would have to be tantamount to outing them if I gave a hint specific enough

I feel like it should be ok to tell you they're experienced and good as both alignments and have a very good track record of reading me? Those are the most game important meta points I think

[Ausuka]

That's assuming that I'm correct about their identity but I think them not contesting that they are very good at reading me makes it almost impossible that I'm wrong?

[Ausuka]

Have I played with them before?

yes

[Ausuka]

Scamper I don't understand why you think Marci is town here like any substantial percentage of the time

idk, her approach right now does not make sense to me but it doesnt actually make sense as either alignment and sometimes people just play weird. im bnot sure the aggression is what id expect from scum!her

mainly i got worried because it felt like gammas play was sideline-y and she was seemingly playing both sides in the argument between you and marci and johnny has just not been townie at all

I mean I feel like this argument only works up to a point surely?

Like, I feel like it's based on an assumption that Marci is a kind of person she is not, and she's been taking advantage of thinking like this the entire game. I really really do not see this as town!her at this point.

[Ausuka]

Like, when I bring up the obvious contradictions she just obfuscates and dodges and changes the subject

I really think she's doing this on purpose.

[Ausuka]

Idk

I suppose it's not impossible my viewpoint is obscured by how she was pushing me but I don't see it.

I will try and look at JF and gamma with an open mind.

Pedit: I don't think so? In particular I think if scum you knew there was a low risk of Marci being limmed and potentially tried to coach her to ensure the wagon would transition away. I think your posts day 1 are negative associative certainly but I think basically no way is taking it too far.

[Ausuka]

It's possible my memory is faulty, it's been a long time, but I don't -recall- you being massively bus averse

Although I don't think we played any traitor games together where you were scum so I don't know the details of your meta in that way

[Ausuka]

I mean, she's the one who seems insistent you don't get that chance

[Ausuka]

see u think im a bad player!

???

[Ausuka]

I don't think you're treating me like you think I'm scum there? Like, town you should not be convinced scum Ausuka thinks she's a bad player. If you think I'm calling you bad I think town Marci is more likely to argue I'm scum for calling her a bad player when you know I appreciate you.

And yeah work takes priority dw

[Ausuka]

I think that paragraph is difficult to understand.

Me and Marci are friends, she knows I don't think she's stupid and that would be true regardless of my alignment. So I think her accusing me of being scum thinking she's bad is disingenuous.

[Ausuka]

what do u make of my johnny tr from yday scamper?

i haven't gotten to it yet, quote it for me

the thing about johnny is he seemed to turn around from being a POE slot to being a near-universal townread yesterday and i have no idea hiow it happened, he feels like a slot scum should be trying to miselim if hes town and i have a hard time imagining scum just abandoned the chance tpo get him voted, it makes more sense to me if his partner saw him getting townread by alex and tried to take advantage of the read

I think if I knew you were town I'd find this convincing and it's a good case against Marci/gamma

But like fmpov you could be doing this?

[Ausuka]

I mean, I understand the logic from your perspective and it looks reasonable, but from my perspective it isn't strong evidence that JF is scum because I'm worried that you're scum pushing him?

[Ausuka]

Yeah

I mean, before I talk, I am going to do a deeper dive into your iso and especially interactions with marci before we end the day, as I said I'm not just going to random Lim you for being good at scum.

But I think the way you played your cards early today was scummy. Like, rationally I would understand being paranoid of me here. But I think you're one of the only people who wouldn't be, and I think it's very convenient for you to keep your options open at the start of the day - especially if you're scum with Marci, for example, because in that scenario there's a very obvious path to victory where Gamma votes for me and it's useful to pressure me. While I'm obviously not an expert scum player, I feel like even if you were planning to townread me eventually, it's a good idea for you as scum to play up the paranoia aspect so I feel more pressured and would townread you more if you came to my rescue so to speak.

None of this would matter much if I thought you were likely to express that paranoia as town but again you're one of the only people who I believe wouldn't do that. This would always be +scum but there are explanations that would be at least somewhat believable. However, when I asked you about it earlier, you seemed aware that you shouldn't really be expressing suspicion of me here and called it stupid and backtracked. I think fundamentally you did not think I had any idea who you were, and I think that's why you took the approach you did at the start of the day.

I also tend to think you work well as a Marci partner. Your push on her d1 was good, and I need to run a double check on everything I'm saying here because I'm not super confident in it but I don't think your interaction with the Marci wagon late d1 was that towny - you pushed Corwin heavily instead, which obviously isn't a fault with town you because Corwin was indeed scum but mafia you did not know that. jF and gamma are fine with me pushing Marci, which yeah could indicate they are scum together, but if they're not it points more to you since I think in elo bussing rates tend to go down a lot - I can see scum you going for a JF elim here and I think player to player that's a fight you win a big majority of the time if that makes sense.

[Ausuka]

Again I understand this is probably annoying for you because there's a lot you can't argue with without outing yourself but like

I'm not sure what I could do to make it less annoying without throwing tbh

[Ausuka]

ASUSUKA VOTE ME I BET YOU WONT

VOTE ME SINCE IM SUCH CLEAR SCUM U COWARD

OH WAIT ITS CUZ UR SCUM AND U WANT A TOWNIE TO VOTE ME FIRST

i can towncase myself later but whats the use fighting something so set in stone because of towns dumbassry

vote count 5.01

with 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to make a decision. day 5 ends in (expired on 2022-08-06 20:00:00).

yeet

not voting [5]:Ausuka, JohnnyFarrar, Scamper, marcistar, Gamma Emerald

flavor

Really makes you think

[Ausuka]

I think on the surface of it it's a team that makes sense. Like, it would fit with my dynamics today.

My main concern is that JF feels sorta towny for reasons I've explained and gamma has felt kinda self righteous in a way that's hard for scum to fake, and I think scum kept me alive so Gamma could vote me which would imply she's town. But there are reasons to townread you too so like... At least one towny person has to be mafia.

Also it would require marci to be town, which I'm finding increasingly hard to understand.

I think what you did mostly fits the hanging back description; you expressed a suspicion of me in a way that feels flexible if that makes sense. I think there are reasons you could be reluctant to bus Marci; for example, it's possible that she doesn't want to be bussed and you would prefer to win together, or you might not have realised the way this day phase was going to go at the start and now think flipping to a bus wouldn't necessarily look convincing?

I will take a closer look at Johnny/gamma

[Ausuka]

i'm just going to say i got paranoid of you to start the day because of a thought i had overnight, but i *really can't explain why* and leave it at that because i can't get further into it. i wish i could say that stuff but i really can't.

Yeah, idk what to do in this situation. It's not your fault or anything just awkward.

[Ausuka]

Johnny I feel like you kinda flipped your reads on me and scamper around very quickly and as much as I prefer things this way I'm curious what changed?

I was legit thinking out loud. Elo paranoia makes me suspicious of everyone, but when I lay out all the information the answer I arrive at os gamma/Marci. You don't make sense as partners with anyone and Scamper really only makes sense with Marci.

I understand I'm also a question mark to y'all, but I don't have that problem. There's no way Marci isn't scum here.

Huh, I mean, I suppose that makes sense? You're a difficult read

Do you mind sharing more about Marci/gamma read? I thought you were on Marci/scamper? I don't want to rule out Marci/gamma, I mean Datisi liked that solve and he's better at the game than I am but like at the end he townread Gamma I think, and I also townread Gamma right now for reasons I think I've explained. Like, at points he's felt like really self righteously frustrated with me and I'd be impressed if that was fake. And I think the reason I'm alive is that scum probably thought Gamma was going to vote me.

[Ausuka]

Going to read through Johnny and gamma now to see if they make sense as the team

[Ausuka]

ok I just checked and Datisi's reads were basically just "Marci is scum and idk y'all fuckers should post more"

I think he was townreading scamper probably but so was everyone else so like

[Ausuka]

JF you wanna actually bother to explain your read on me?

I think this is kind of negative partner equity

I mean Johnny saying gamma is scum and not exactly pushing it hard looks bad but then again it's Johnny and I wouldn't expect him to really push any of his reads as town necessarily?

And I don't think Gamma is all that likely to call out that Johnny's read on him isn't fleshed out in public because I think that's a relatively common partner tell and something she's fairly unlikely to want to draw attention to.

[Ausuka]

Gamma I still think makes sense as scum based on that first wagon. Would be willing to vote but i'm also a sucker for genuine apologies and I like Gamma for coming clean about their attitude coming outta that last game. Idk. I'm a waffle.

Again like I don't want to overthink too hard but... Does Johnny admit to waffling about his partner

Like that's the most traditional partners thing to do?

[Ausuka]

When I think of Gamma in this game it's a big fog of eh. Can't remember anything they've done honestly.

I guess this is kind of eh

It seems kind of difficult to believe Johnny legitimately doesn't remember anything Gamma has done this game, Gamma was one of his major scumreads from d2 to early d3, I think he kind of dropped it at d3 so like on a surface level this team makes a lot of sense

I will go check out the day 3 gamma wagon

The problem I have again is like ... I just feel strongly that the way Marci has been treating me today is not even close to good faith and wouldn't come from town her

I guess this specific tell would work with Marci/jf with jf manouvering to a convenient position on gamma

I know you're probably not on right now but I'd like to hear a bit more of your opinion here scamper? Like, about why you think this is the team, why you think marcistar isn't like highly probable mafia based on her behaviour today and why Johnny kills alex?

I don't want to be like demanding but if you're town your analysis would be super useful I think. if Marci is town I am going to struggle to see it a lot.

[Ausuka]

I guess one problem I have with Marci/jf is jfs entrance

I don't think JF needs to open the way he did at wolf. Like it feels so counterintuitive to push on me and then instantly flip. I know this will sound weird after what I said to scamper but if JF was Sus of me at the very start of the day before Gamma kinda started flipping I'd be suspicious of that as well. It just the way he came in saying Ausuka is a wolf and then immediately flipping seems totally unnecessary and counterintuitive. I think scum JF probably decides on a strategy before posting on whether or not he Busses Marci? Is that too overthinky?

[Ausuka]

Maybe that is too overthinky. It's very possible scum JF just kind of goes with the flow in the same way town JF would

[Ausuka]

I feel like, with the caveat I have more rereading to do, I'm here right now

Marci/scamper 40%
Marci/Johnny 40%
Marci/gamma 10%
Johnny/gamma 10%

and I think any other scumteam exists an insignificant amount of the time

[Ausuka]

im not scum

Ok well

I'm not scum and scamper is very unlikely to be scum unless it's *specifically* with you, so

[Ausuka]

Scamper roughly how much of the time do you think it's Johnny/gamma here

(For some reason this post had a quote of your RVS vote, luckily I pressed preview, I don't understand this forum)

[Ausuka]

Because like

I understand your concern and I'm concerned too I don't want to lose the game

But if Marci is scum, and I think it's very likely that she is, I think it would be helpful to have a significant amount of time where I have that basically confirmed and I can reread with knowledge that Marci is scum in this Day phase. If that makes sense.

[Ausuka]

Ugghhh don't make me repost the votecount thing

[Ausuka]

?

[Ausuka]

If scamper is scum it's with you , I stand by that

Scamper/Gamma and scamper/Johnny make like no sense to me as teams

[Ausuka]

Scamper are you seeing this

Do you *really* think town Marci trolls me like this
Like I know it doesn't make much sense for scum on the surface either but I think it's much more likely she's scum who doesn't fe confident in faking a genuine thought process and is therefore trying to just take refuge in audacity and make up nonsense like she has been all game

[Ausuka]

man hold on lemme get serious for a min

im town

im not scum

im not scum

i said what i said

git gud

ur scum

Subject: Mafia Invictus Redux - Lamborghini Mafia Hideout PT

me: im totally gonna do x later tonight guys!!!

also me: *doesnt do it*
thats how u know im not vibing : (

[Ausuka]

Like I think you are town like a very respectable amount of the time so I am willing to wait for you to come on and talk this out

But I have intent to vote for Marcistar soon.

pedit: you are so trolling

you're not vibing because you're scum, that's clear from the context tbh, I mean you talked about how you hate rolling scum and that you were making up BS in the same PT

[Ausuka]

I hope the dead pt isn't screaming at me too hard

I'm trying my best ok

[Ausuka]

I mean like, I think you need to have some idea of what you want to be doing in 3p if we Lim Marci, she reds and I die right?

[Ausuka]

Yeah that's fair I guess
It's late and I'm tired but if you're around I guess I could go into gamma iso again to see if the association with Johnny are there?

Unless it seems that there is a significant risk of us losing I kinda want to vote Marci sooner rather than later

[Ausuka]

still thinking ausuka and bella are town

scamper is spewed town from corwin's iso, and i think crescent's play around corwin really isn't scum

i don't remember why i was townreading gamma, but i'm gonna trust past!datisi

and with great sorrow i announce that i found a progression from marcistar that, in this economy, i really doubt comes from scum

so that leaves: alex, johnny, std, freedom

VOTE: johnny

i'm gonna sheep scamper for the time being. i'll try to figure out what's what at some point

JF you wanna actually bother to explain your read on me?

VOTE: johnnyfarrar

Hmm this feels important but idk what to think

Like i guess it is just like ... it could be a bus vote but doesn't have to be? Idk I'd like to hear what you think about it I suppose

[Ausuka]

alright so trying to read through gammas iso:

the early comment on townpinging alex feels like a stretchy read

im slightly bothered still by how she backed down on her scumread of me quickly, because it makes me wonder whether it was even real in the first place

similarly the read on one of cres/shos is whatever to me but the fact she doesnt really do anything with it until shoshin started pushing her pings me

a significant chunk of her posts all read like commentary to me, there's a lot of responding to things other people were saying but not a lot of what i would call analysis or game-advancing content

the argument with shoshin doesnt really come off looking great, i dont like the way she reacts to shoshin attacking her and the accusation of her being "wishy-washy" is nonsense, it looks like applying a generic buzzword that doesnt really fit shoshins behavior

im bothered by how she 180'd her read when freedom showed up because it feels very conveniently timed, 639 feels like a reachy justification to move off a vote

at this point gamma wraps u all her attantion in defending marcistar and again im noting she doesnt actually have a scumread she wants to push at this point. if shes convinced marcistar is town i would expect an effort to sort her voters but i dont get that here, i get more the impression gamma is talking about this stuff because she wants to be seen as being right on marci

there was reference to a secret scumread at 76 and im not sure anything ever came of it?

904 is a super weird post, because it looks more like she wants someone to talk her into scumreading alex than to actually defend alex?

but she has no scumreads she seemed to actually care about

1084 -> 1094 is a line of questioning i dont see the use of and the fact she was so easily satisfied with the answer is Hmm

she kind of just seems to be going with the flow as the corwin wagon builds

notably gamma is putting some suspicion on alex as the wagon on corwin was building and calling out a scumread on him but has had no followthrough on it today, or on her scumread of bella

and i'm not really sure what she's doing right now on day 2...


so overall i'm not really sure why i'm townreading her at all

ngl
If you weren’t basically conftown I’d be scumreading the shit out of this
This entire wall looks like you are deliberately spouting the most uncharitable takes possible on me

Hmm this kind of feels town?? Like the part where he's calling you basically conftown but also is kind of aggressive towards you. Like it doesn't feel super image conscious?

Also part of me feels like if Gamma is scum with Johnny he probably unvotes after you do since it's the perfect excuse to do so and from what he's said this game I feel like he probably genuinely isn't a massive fan of bussing for 'no reason'

[Ausuka]

I mean in the first post I wasn't saying a bus was outlandish

I could easily see gamma bussing there but also like I don't think there's much evidence to show that was happening? Like it could have happened but. I don't know I don't really feel like gamma is scum here?

Maybe I shouldn't play mafia at night but oh welll

[Ausuka]

Hmm this kind of feels town?? Like the part where he's calling you basically conftown but also is kind of aggressive towards you. Like it doesn't feel super image conscious?

Also part of me feels like if Gamma is scum with Johnny he probably unvotes after you do since it's the perfect excuse to do so and from what he's said this game I feel like he probably genuinely isn't a massive fan of bussing for 'no reason'

ehh, maybe

Idk dude I'm tryingg

Reviewing the game is hard there's so much stuff

[Ausuka]

I was kind of hoping gamma would be here and trying to solve between jf or scamper or resolving the possibility I'm scum

I don't know if I should be paranoid that isn't happening, maybe I just need to be more patient?

My issue is that idk I just feel like if Marci is town we lose the game because she never co operates with me in an elo situation and also Marci is like genuinely smart and easy to talk to in most situations and I don't think she actually behaves like this as town

So for that reason alone a gamma Johnny team is difficult for me to believe

[Ausuka]

OK Gamma I was going through your games to see if I could find an example of you in elo as town and uh, you post in a lot of topics and do not appear to live to elo that often

Would you mind linking me to some?

[Ausuka]

Zzz I feel like I care too much and am just being annoying

Idk I think I'll just wait until the morning and see how I feel then

[Ausuka]

It seems like the answer is that you don't really have any elo games which is like surprising but fine I guess

[Ausuka]

Ok thanks I will read through those tomorrow morning

[Ausuka]

My issue is that idk I just feel like if Marci is town we lose the game because she never co operates with me in an elo situation and also Marci is like genuinely smart and easy to talk to in most situations and I don't think she actually behaves like this as town

thats where ur wrong bb

i would be nice and angelic if yknow UR SOLVES DIDNT INCLUDE ME

so your mindset is that because I scumread you I can't be town? you must also believe there are 3 scum in the game, yes? I don't buy it, sorry

[Ausuka]

Ok, I read the games gamma linked, it's not like that clear cut but I don't get the sense he would necessarily tryhard in elo as town so.

VOTE: marcistar

I am still not 100% certain this is correct but I feel like I am not going to realistically change my mind that this is the best play here and I want to leave time for Hammertesting and subsequent analysis.

If it's gamma and Johnny, sorry scamper.

[Ausuka]

And now we wait I guess >.>

[Ausuka]

UNVOTE:

[Ausuka]

>.>

Maybe I'm just paranoid but like

Why would you not just wait for the scumteam to be confirmed in me/Marci

Like, don't you want to try and teamsolve today before someone dies? We don't have to come to a definite conclusion but ...

[Ausuka]

Ehh I guess that's sort of fair but like

Idk I voted so we could improve the analysis

I don't see why we would want to end the day soon

[Ausuka]

I suppose it probably wasn't a hammer attempt

I was watching and I'm almost certain Johnnyfarrar wasn't online, he keeps his status public

So like... I think if that's what Gamma was trying to do he'd just wait for him

[Ausuka]

I guess part of me is wondering like

Is there a reason you seem to think I'm towny now? I don't think I'm doing anything massively different to what I was doing in previous days? Like, I was expecting you to just ~say more things~ in this ELO in general I suppose, I was expecting I'd have to like try and convince you not to vote me

Pedit: I mean I'd like the chance to review and weigh the evidence for myself knowing that gamma/Johnny isn't a possibility if we got to that point, I guess

[Ausuka]

Lmao it strikes me this is kind of a reversal of the situation from earlier

Well I'm still thinking I'll vote Marci but I probably want to talk to scamper again to see what they make of this first

[Ausuka]

I think Johnny was on is he not going to post

[Ausuka]

Not scum with scamper if that wasn't confirmed already ig

[Ausuka]

I mean I might just be ready to risk it here

Like I suppose recent events have raised the probability of gamma and Johnny to me but i don't think I'll ever be able to swallow the poison pill of town Marci so i think this is a loss if that's the team

[Ausuka]

Not hammering