Mini Normal 2283 - Game Over!

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:22 am

In post 2035, Aisa wrote:
In post 2029, Grib wrote:Also, from the way it sounds, we’re trying to use the vig shot in place of an elim.
Yeah, the thing is, if the outcomes are either that N_M dies to the vig shot, or we elim him tomorrow, then why not just elim him today?

In post 2040, Aisa wrote:Full reasoning:

(Elim someone else, Bella vigs Not_Mafia) > (Elim Not_Mafia, Bella vigs someone else) > (No elim)

I am using the fact that eliminating Not_Mafia is better than not eliminating him today to argue against a no elim. I am slightly less sure I am getting all the mech right for this second step, but I think that eliminating someone other than Not_Mafia is even better than eliminating Not_Mafia, which is why I support a non-NM elim. Although Bella shooting Eira did cross my mind, maybe I could get behind that.

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:35 am

In post 2047, Grib wrote:It’s pretty insulting to be voted over the literal do-nothing slot, while saying you don’t even think I’m mafia. I almost want to just log off and check how this game ends two weeks or so from now.

I understand. If it means anything to you - it doesn't have to - I have enjoyed playing with you and I really wish I didn't find myself in this position.

I am making an argument that is partly mechanical. You are free to engage with me, SR me, or vote me off over this.

It could be that I'm doing something wrong: you're right, maybe Bella shooting Eira would be a solution, but I'm going to finish writing this post first, then think about the solution of asking Bella to elim Eira.

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:41 am

In post 2049, Grib wrote:So you followed my suggestion to threaten to vote out Eiralox unless he claims. He squirmed and made excuses and left, which is pretty fucking fishy, and…you did the exact thing you said was a bad idea, which is pretend to threaten to kill him. How do you justify that?

Re: pretend to threaten to kill him:
This is one of the things that got lost in the fray and maybe I didn't communicate well, but at the time I voted Eira, I did so completely willing to eliminate them. And then I got spooked and unvoted.

I don't think I threatened to kill Eira after they left?

I am not in a position where I am thinking especially logically. You are within your rights to think this is an excuse or to find this frustrating.

UNVOTE:

Also, unfortunate fact, I have a commitment this evening and need to leave soon. I will make sure not to leave until I've cast a vote. I will also check in before the end of the day to provide a hammer if this is necessary.

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:44 am

I think he's presenting an *interpretation* that isn't necessarily true
and specifically, the bit about you being anti-town because you don't want to die misses that you asked me to unvote so you can continue to engage,
but I think this is understandable with the current chaos

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:50 am

In post 2064, Grib wrote:
In post 2061, Aisa wrote: And then I got spooked and unvoted.
Why?

Ugh, something about Bella seeming like she kinda wanted Eira to live, but I guess she did say herself she isn't sure what alignment they are.

VOTE: Not Mafia
Maybe Bella can shoot Eira or something.

I need to go. If I am alive tomorrow I will engage Grib, Eira, or whoever is alive that needs to be engaged with. I will make sure to write a proper case. As an exchange for this, I will be much less receptive to people trying to change my mind last-minute if we are in that situation, and reserve the right to not engage at deadline.

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:47 am

Hi. Is there anything for me to hammer, or?

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:51 am

Frog, I haven’t read it all. What’s the reason you don’t want to vote NM?

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:56 am

We’re not just voting NM because he’s not posting, like, it’s partly a PoE thing, it’s been in the cards for a while.

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:56 am

Yes Bella, please hammer, no one else is even remotely near e-1

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:57 am

Excellent, thank you. Speak tomorrow.

Aisa · Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:58 am

=P I’ve seen you do that before

Aisa · Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:57 pm

Just woke up. Reminder to not put anyone at 2 votes because they could get quick hammered.

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:39 am

I received a Mailman message last night. Paraphrasing: "Sup? It's Titus and I'm a Mailman. I think you're Town so far. I'm going to read my predecessor's posts and do some VCA."

As we have no way of detecting whether Frog's claim is 100% true I'm thinking that maybe Enchant is right and we should just no elim. I think there's a 60% chance Frog just gets smoked during the night, but that would at least eliminate some residual uncertainty around his slot and save us all some anguish.

I'm not going to rush it, but unless anyone has any counterarguments to no limming I don't think we need to take the full week either. People can address any things they feel strongly about, Frog can leave probable last words and it would be nice to let Titus post a bit before we go to Night again.

I know Grib wanted me to reply to something yesterday, I'll find the post.

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:52 am

In post 2234, Titus wrote:I'm a joat, not a mailman. The only slot I feel rather comfortable with right now is Aisa. My scum of VCA says Elements Grib but Frog's doctor claim with a dead Bella is suspect. The masons were macho so why would scum have a roleblocker?

I can confirm this is true, Titus claimed JOAT and the specific shots to me.

Titus, why do you TR me?

In post 2262, Titus wrote:
In post 2255, Elements wrote:Titus do you believe Frog's doctor claim?
It requires a roleblocker or strongman to be true which has issues with macho masons.

I agree that a strongman is less likely than a Roleblocker. But I don't think that an RB is that good against claimed Masons? Against a claimed Cop + hidden Doctor, scum can just RB the cop and call it a day. Scum can't exactly RB a Mason. I don't see why RB + Macho modifier couldn't just be complementary defenses against a Doc.

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:54 am

I promised a response to this.

Spoiler: Context

In post 2061, Aisa wrote:
In post 2049, Grib wrote:So you followed my suggestion to threaten to vote out Eiralox unless he claims. He squirmed and made excuses and left, which is pretty fucking fishy, and…you did the exact thing you said was a bad idea, which is pretend to threaten to kill him. How do you justify that?
Re: pretend to threaten to kill him:
This is one of the things that got lost in the fray and maybe I didn't communicate well, but at the time I voted Eira, I did so completely willing to eliminate them. And then I got spooked and unvoted.

I don't think I threatened to kill Eira after they left?

I am not in a position where I am thinking especially logically. You are within your rights to think this is an excuse or to find this frustrating.

UNVOTE:

Also, unfortunate fact, I have a commitment this evening and need to leave soon. I will make sure not to leave until I've cast a vote. I will also check in before the end of the day to provide a hammer if this is necessary.

In post 2064, Grib wrote:
In post 2061, Aisa wrote: And then I got spooked and unvoted.
Why?

In post 2066, Grib wrote:Tell me why you aren't willing to risk Eiralox's life when he is being antitown, avoiding committing to a claim, making up excuses, lashing out, and not giving reasons for scumreads despite being all too happy to vote me for FoS'ing him. Tell me why.

In post 2068, Aisa wrote:
In post 2064, Grib wrote:
In post 2061, Aisa wrote: And then I got spooked and unvoted.
Why?
Ugh, something about Bella seeming like she kinda wanted Eira to live, but I guess she did say herself she isn't sure what alignment they are.

VOTE: Not Mafia
Maybe Bella can shoot Eira or something.

I need to go. If I am alive tomorrow I will engage Grib, Eira, or whoever is alive that needs to be engaged with. I will make sure to write a proper case. As an exchange for this, I will be much less receptive to people trying to change my mind last-minute if we are in that situation, and reserve the right to not engage at deadline.

In post 2074, Grib wrote:
In post 2066, Grib wrote:Tell me why you aren't willing to risk Eiralox's life when he is being antitown, avoiding committing to a claim, making up excuses, lashing out, and not giving reasons for scumreads despite being all too happy to vote me for FoS'ing him. Tell me why.
I don't care what happens, Aisa needs to answer this next phase. Don't let her skip out on it.

Bella seemed pretty adamant that Eiralox shouldn't die and I thought that trumped other considerations. For example, did it seem like Eira was being antitown in a vacuum? Sure. Was Eira being antitown given Bella's behaviour around that slot? Not so clear. Did Eira lash out at you and me? Yeah and maybe that could have been handled differently somewhere, but that's not really something I usually read scumread.

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:02 am

2068 is me realising in real time that Bella had expressed doubt of Eira's alignment.

Let's change the topic. Grib, will you vote No Lim today? xx

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:15 am

No slot is mechanically confirmed. I don't feel qualified to assess the setup balance and I haven't seen anyone make an argument I trust yet about the setup. I can't see a reason it would hurt except having "one less town voice" and that's a price I would personally pay for having to "tinfoil" one fewer slot.

In post 2207, Elements wrote:
In post 2203, Aisa wrote:I'm not going to rush it, but unless anyone has any counterarguments to no limming I don't think we need to take the full week either. People can address any things they feel strongly about, Frog can leave probable last words and it would be nice to let Titus post a bit before we go to Night again.
This feels hella scummy.

Why do you find it scummy?

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:29 am

In post 2232, Grib wrote:I want to kill Aisa and Enchant. Part of me does want to No Lim to make sure Frog is real, but that's just me being a coward.

In post 2279, Grib wrote:Ask me again in six days, eight hours, and twenty minutes.

That's fair enough, but I'm wondering why you're suddenly so bloodthirsty given you were the original pacifist yesterday

Spoiler: Grib founding the Pacifist movement

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:39 am

In post 2282, Elements wrote:
In post 2280, Aisa wrote:No slot is mechanically confirmed. I don't feel qualified to assess the setup balance and I haven't seen anyone make an argument I trust yet about the setup. I can't see a reason it would hurt except having "one less town voice" and that's a price I would personally pay for having to "tinfoil" one fewer slot.
the "one less town voice" will be Titus

And that is relevant because?

In post 2207, Elements wrote:
In post 2203, Aisa wrote:I'm not going to rush it, but unless anyone has any counterarguments to no limming I don't think we need to take the full week either. People can address any things they feel strongly about, Frog can leave probable last words and it would be nice to let Titus post a bit before we go to Night again.
This feels hella scummy.
Why do you find it scummy?
Idk, it felt like you were rushing the game along when I first read it. Feels less scummy on re-reading it.

your tone does seem different now though.

Yeah maybe I endorsed slightly too excitedy vibes ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:56 am

Grib, It almost seems like a difference in approach to the game, which I want to say should be more stable reads? At least taking myself as a frame of reference, I feel like I would advocate for no lim in a situation like this as either alignment.

But yes yes it's not an airtight tell, that's ok, we can no lim and talk about it tomorrow

Also yes I see the new messages address them soon

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:58 am

In post 2285, Elements wrote:
In post 2283, Aisa wrote:
In post 2282, Elements wrote:
In post 2280, Aisa wrote:No slot is mechanically confirmed. I don't feel qualified to assess the setup balance and I haven't seen anyone make an argument I trust yet about the setup. I can't see a reason it would hurt except having "one less town voice" and that's a price I would personally pay for having to "tinfoil" one fewer slot.
the "one less town voice" will be Titus
And that is relevant because?
Titus is the most conformably town atm? so we wouldn't be losing a "tinfoil" slot

That is the other thing. Why is she confirmably Town?

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:06 am

are we locked in a standoff to see who will cave and give information first?

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:14 am

I think it's you and Elements, so you might see why I might not look favourably upon what I see as attempts to ferret information about Titus out of me <3

I need to check my read on the other three slots, though.

In post 123, Firebringer wrote:I woudl like to hear more from
aisa
elements. Where did that
rabbit
axolotl run of to

Suddenly relatable

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:18 am

Sorry, just realised I still haven't explained that clearly. I was hoping Elements would be forced to explain why Titus was "the most confirmably town" before I said anything. From my perspective somebody had to blink first.

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:33 am

In post 2296, Grib wrote:I wasn't talking about Titus at all. Why do you think it's me and Elements?

In post 2297, Grib wrote:Actually, I take that back. Forget about me, tell me about Elements.

I'm pleasantly surprised that you're this cooperative with someone you scumread by the way, but it is nice.

PoE? Imagine that I think Enchant is Town, Frog is probably Town. That leaves you, Titus, and Elements, and *gestures vaguely to reasons*

In post 2299, Grib wrote:You should probably talk about Enchant too. I don't think you've actually justified a townread on him.

Ugh, fair, but how do I explain vibes? The way he's hung around at deadline, shown interest in the game and in achieving good mechanical outcomes seems towny. You could argue some of that is signalling, I think that Enchant obviously understands to no lim here today as both alignments. The stuff yesterday where he told Bella that she

had to

hammer, though? That's not a post Enchant has to make as scum. I think this is a slot where a simple, naive read like this is actually enough?

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:38 am

In post 2302, Elements wrote:JOAT with confirmable night actions e.g. mailman message so at the very least from your perspective Titus has a role if not alignment conformation
the set-up isn't:
3 macho masons + doc + VT VS Roleblocker + JOAT + goon

I'll give you that's actually a fairly believable analysis, but the complex vig starts looking a lot less like dead weight in this setup?

3 macho masons + doc + complex vig + VT
Roleblocker + JOAT + goon

Also it kind of depends on what you assume the JOAT's abilities are.

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:49 am

He may not think he doesn't have a meta, that doesn't mean he doesn't have one. You've also said that he "seems towny" at points and you must have been going off something, what was that?

But I give it to you, you have a rhetorical point if nothing else. This is miselim or lose! We ought not to throw around reads carelessly! Rigour!

In post 1588, Aisa wrote:I did some Enchant meta research a few days ago, but never got around to writing it up until now.

It turns out during Days 1-2 I was misremembering the Enchant meta tell that I was told about. I thought the meta tell was that Enchant posts less as scum. It turns out that the meta tell is that Enchant sounds kinda lifeless and more dry as scum, a bit like the text equivalent of an empty laugh.

Some Enchy scum games:
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=89712
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=89536
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=89510

Some Enchy town games:
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=89608
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=89965

I should probably acknowledge that Gamma is the one who noticed the tell.

Which meta do people think Enchant's tone is closer to in this game?

I also made a whole post about Enchant meta yesterday. No one picked me up on my question and then I either forgot to follow up on it or didn't care to, whoops. But, uh, maybe you can see why I don't think I'm going to be convinced to move by a "No, Enchant himself said he doesn't have a meta".

Although uh, I have to give it to you, I thought I said Enchant was town at the time I made that post, I actually decided to see how people reacted first, so you're right that I haven't justified my read much.

P-edit yes I can talk about all that

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:24 pm

In post 2315, Grib wrote:Where does he show he cares about achieving good mechanical outcomes? What's the significance of telling Bella to hammer that has to come from a villager?

I don't think telling Bella to hammer necessarily has to come from a villager, it's more of a how he told Bella to hammer. Enchant saying "YOU MUST" is true but also funny. It's a true statement delivered in a funny way. It is a joke that it is easier to make if you believe in its truth. Couple that with the fact he could have easily gotten away with not saying anything as scum.

Spoiler: Enchant being repeatedly invested in mechanical plays Aisa approves of

In post 2326, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 2312, Aisa wrote:I'm pleasantly surprised that you're this cooperative with someone you scumread by the way, but it is nice.
Scumtell fyi

Oh, I've totally gone for the following two-step plan as scum in elo before:
1. Be polite
2. Ask a townie to re-evaluate their reads until they overthink themselves into a wrong read

Anyway, enough teasing Grib for now, I think I've driven my point home. Tomorrow I think seriously about Frog.

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:43 pm

In post 2315, Grib wrote:Where does he show he cares about achieving good mechanical outcomes? What's the significance of telling Bella to hammer that has to come from a villager?

If you reread the game from a Grib/Elements/BBT perspective, does the game flow naturally? Does the team fit? Have you even reread the game with that team in mind, or are you just like "welp here are the leftovers, die die die"

I did a reread the game a bit over the Night phase and noted that you + Elements fit fairly well. Elements in particular seems more comfortable talking to you than to others. I think I'm due for a more serious reread though.

"Welp here are the leftovers, die die die" doesn't feel like a fair representation. I wasn't trying to state reads until you asked me to and I am still team No Lim, you traitor of the peacekeeping movement.

In post 2316, Grib wrote:I really do want to know why Elements is scum beyond being a leftover name. Look at her play over the course of the game and tell me what she was thinking as BBT's buddy, and how she ended up doing the things she did.

I overpromised earlier, I can do this tomorrow. I'll give you a taster though:

Spoiler: Opinions often don't hold up to scrutiny terribly well

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:47 pm

In post 2330, Grib wrote:To be fair, I haven't asked you to evaluate anything. I'm asking you to justify the reads you have, especially ones you've had for a while but have said little about.

I think this is arguable since you're talking about me rereading things, but I'm willing to drop this point.

I'm going to bed now. Stay tuned for the next episode of "Will Aisa be able to resist shading to Grib?" tomorrow.

Aisa · Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:33 pm

In post 2335, Grib wrote:
In post 2332, Aisa wrote:
In post 2315, Grib wrote:Where does he show he cares about achieving good mechanical outcomes? What's the significance of telling Bella to hammer that has to come from a villager?

If you reread the game from a Grib/Elements/BBT perspective, does the game flow naturally? Does the team fit? Have you even reread the game with that team in mind, or are you just like "welp here are the leftovers, die die die"
I did a reread the game a bit over the Night phase and noted that you + Elements fit fairly well. Elements in particular seems more comfortable talking to you than to others. I think I'm due for a more serious reread though.
You think her goading you into voting me to E-1 last phase was a ploy?

You did end up voting me later. why didn't you do it when she asked?

Maybe? I'll have to reread.

I wanted to have a reason for voting whoever I voted, "lol Elements said to vote you" is not a reason. I was also definitely salty about her ruining my Frog wagon on Day 2, even if maybe it was for the best, haha.

Aisa · Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:15 am

The heck is going on

Aisa · Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:18 am

In post 2360, Enchant wrote:
In post 2359, Aisa wrote:The heck is going on
Oh i wonder.

Maybe Frog and Titus decided to quickhammer mafia do you know?

We lost.

Yeah I mean it was rhetorical

Was just on the phone to my dad explaining to him how I expected this game to last another 5 days to two weeks
and there you go

Aisa · Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:26 am

Well played <3

Word of warning, I'm going to write a wall now. This is going to help me get over the loss. At least I think. Feel free to ignore it.

Aisa · Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:37 am

- After Frog claimed I was convinced my reads sucked. By Day 4 I was convinced I sucked because I had wrongly townread Grib and Elements all game. It turns out my reads still sucked, but not for the reason I thought.
- Titus claimed that the slot had Friendly Neighboured Bella on Night 1. I was convinced that this was real because of some things Bella said (e.g. at one point said that Eira was 100% Town). She did later say "let's say that Eira is a PR but I'm not sure what alignment", but I thought that the "let's say" was an attempt to WIFOM the scumteam. Welp @_@
- Titus also claimed she still had an unused detective shot, which was why I pushed for the no elim so hard so early on. I thought that another Night would give her the chance to use it. In hindsight, the fact the Detective shot wasn't used earlier was fishy as hell, especially given that they claimed freaking

lazy

(can only act when there are at least 2 mafia alive) JOAT to me.
- Whoops, I got pocketed pretty hard by a certain mantis slot and their successor

- It was not a good idea to do setup spec.

Aisa · Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:44 am

I don't think I'm ever going to live that down, BBT

Aisa · Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:48 am

Oh, 100%!

In post 2373, Grib wrote:To be honest, we would’ve won if we’d eliminated based on behavior. Maybe. Frog coasted on his claim, nobody wanted to kill Eiralox despite the way he refused to claim his role, and we completely failed at setup gaming because the setup makes no sense. :V

Yeah oops, definitely some blame here. I feel like I shouted the whole game into townreading Eira.

Aisa · Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:12 am

Just remembered I have a funny story to tell about Enchant. I don't even know if my interpretation of events is correct, but if it is not please don't correct me Enchant, thank you XD

Spoiler:

Aisa · Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:31 am

In post 2387, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:I wouldn't put too much blame on yourself. For various reasons, Eira seemed pretty widely town read in the game so it's not on you by any means

That's why I said I have some blame, not all the blame

(but thanks, appreciate!)

In post 2388, Grib wrote:That's not even getting into NM being a Mason, the chances of which were high enough that I honestly should've let myself die instead of him. I felt trapped between "throw the game and let myself be voted out" and "throw the game and vote a maybe Mason who isn't actually playing."

Don't think you dying would have helped in any way. Maybe we could have realised that the TSQ post was an actual crumb, but aside from that, NM as the last surviving Mason had absolutely no utility. I don't mind playing with him, but with the gamestate we were in, I was always going to be paranoid of that slot.

Sorry for scumreading you Aisa, I really did hard townread you for almost the entire game. Just felt cornered when I was running out of scumreads, and you seemed like you'd be a fantastic scumplayer.

It's ok, and saaame. Sorry for scumreading you. You townread me so strongly and you kept saying that your thought process was the same as mine and I thought you were trying to pocket me. I

also

thought that you seemed like you'd be a really competent scum player. At some point the paranoia switch got flipped and the rest is history.

Aisa · Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:11 am

I think everyone is overcomplicating it. The moral of the game is that appealing to Sigmund Freud is a red flag

In post 2407, Firebringer wrote:i missed u aisa in the dead thread. i wanted to scumread u more

Things went downhill after you died. Maybe I needed you waving a sharp knife at me to keep me focused.

Spoiler: talking about the setup

Aisa · Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:41 am

Yes, I am joking. I agree that a more competent Town would have scrutinised the claim more closely, and that is partly on me.

Aisa · Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:22 pm

I read the PTs yesterday! I’m glad Frog doesn’t endorse Transference! Good job Mafia!