Mini 737 - Hack Poetry Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #15 (isolation #0) » Fri Jan 30, 2009 8:15 pm

Post by Ice9 »

There once was a man from Nantucket
Who's dick was so long..

Er..

There once was a man from Nantucket
Who kept all his cash in a bucket
His daughter, named Nan
Ran off with a man
And as for the bucket, Nantucket!

---

WolfBlitzer cries wolf, but there's nothing of note
This is only the stage of the random vote
This case he's attempting to push
Is nothing but hot air from his toosh
And so I conclude with a
Vote: WolfBlitzer
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Post Post #30 (isolation #1) » Sat Jan 31, 2009 11:09 pm

Post by Ice9 »

Wolf, your accusations seemed serious enough
But now you want to say they were fluff?
You spoke of transgressions I had to find in the wiki
This situation will surely get sticky
I have to assume you were for real, not for play
And the only recourse is for my vote to stay
In random vote stage I can only assume
You were grasping at straws when you sang that tune

To everyone else, a wagon we need
My words are what you surely should heed
WolfBlitzer is trying to deflect what I've said
So I say to you all, "Off with his head!"

If you'd like me to explain my thoughts in prose
It is simply required for you to say so
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Post Post #31 (isolation #2) » Sat Jan 31, 2009 11:11 pm

Post by Ice9 »

This game is the most fun that I've had in ages
I'm glad we're quickly filling the pages
If only MafiaScum were paying me wages
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Post Post #44 (isolation #3) » Sun Feb 01, 2009 5:40 pm

Post by Ice9 »

I don't believe Wolf's attacks were in jest just because it was the random voting stage, or early in the game, or what have you.

I do find it interesting that Red Coyote is trying to cover for him.
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Post Post #70 (isolation #4) » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:21 pm

Post by Ice9 »

WolfBlitzer's prolonged absence in the face of my suspicion is mighty convenient for him. He seems to have dropped off of everybody's radar altogether.

---
fhqwhgads wrote:
Ice9 wrote:I do find it interesting that Red Coyote is trying to cover for him.
I think this is a bit of a reach.
And I think that's an easy way to try and smear me without explaining your thought process whatsoever.

---
Lynx The Antithesis wrote:He basically goes against Ice's whole reason for his vote, and simply joins the wagon anyway. Then later tossing in the "spark discussion" doesn't help his case either.
This pretty well sums up the issues people seem to have with budja for his vote, which I agree with.

---
budja wrote:I didn't realise Ice was being serious on his suspicion, maybe more serious than a complete random vote but not much. It was page 2!
It was page 2! is not a valid excuse. Is there an arbitrary number of pages that have to be produced before votes can be considered serious? If so, I didn't get the memo.

---
Spolium wrote:
Goatrevolt wrote:The things I'm suspicious of are:

1. That he voted a target in expectation of later seeing scum tells rather than based off of something he thought was scummy.
2. When I questioned him on 1, he responded that he was just trying to spark discussion, which is completely different reasoning than above.
I really don't see this big difference you keep talking about. If there's more discussion taking place then there's more opportunity for scum to slip up, so prompting discussion is more likely to lead to a scumtell than not doing so (as you said yourself, drawing town out of the random phase is essentially pro-town).

The only thing which really bothered me was the fact that Budja's announcement of his intentions was indeed counter-productive, and despite this move being anti-town it doesn't exactly follow that it was a
scummy
move. Frankly, I'd expect scum to take more care in avoiding this.
Holy alarm bells, Batman! Why are you trying to minimize damage for budja? Both of you are labeling what he claims to have been trying to do ("move us out of the random stage") as generically pro-town, which is a silly idea in the first place because if that is always considered pro-town then the scum will just
do that
to get brownie points, but at least goat broke down the flaws in budja's actions and pointed out the possible scum motivation for them. You just blandly agree with the assessment that trying to end the random stage is pro-town while trying to get goat to drop the rest of his argument. And then you go on about how budja is being anti-town but not scummy... uh, what? Could there be a more perfect way to try and get your scumbuddy off the hook? And the last line is just a WIFOM mess. You're saying budja can't be scum because scum wouldn't be so sloppy. Yeah right.
Spolium wrote:
Goatrevolt wrote:Secondly, what kind of discussion did you anticipate your vote would spark?
I'm not sure that this is a fair question. When trying to provoke discussion, it's impossible to determine exactly
what
sort of discussion is going to arise (particularly so in a game where everyone is second-guessing themselves/others, and scum are waiting to pounce on any careless townie).

In order to answer your question, Budja would have to blindly speculate about what
might
arise from a provocative vote, and such speculation would be easy to criticise. I mean, what answer could Budja give you here which you would even accept as valid?
And you just keep going on the budja cover-up, fielding a question for him by means of trying to get it disqualified. What you've essentially said here is that budja can't answer this question without implicating himself, so he shouldn't answer it at all.

FoS: Spolium


---
Goatrevolt wrote:When I asked him about that, he backed off into the more general: "just trying to spark discussion." To me, that rings of him knowing his original reasons were bogus and so he fell back to "trying to generate discussion" which has the connotation of being a pro-town play.
These were my thoughts almost exactly as I read through the same section.

---
Budja wrote:
Goatrevolt wrote:"That he voted a target in expectation of later seeing scum tells rather than based off of something he thought was scummy."
I don't see anything wrong with this, this is no worse than a random vote. The fault I made was to declare the vote was pretty meaningless. People's responses when votes are placed on them are a large part (IMO) of finding scumtells.

I disagree with you on this point. My fault was not my action but the fact I openly displayed my reason. Saying a vote is for pressure reduces the pressure and makes the vote meaningless,
that was poor playing I did there
, I will admit that.

Sparking discussion and seeking scumtells are not fundamentally different reasons and I did have both in mind.
This is just a big pile of lame excuses. You were playing poorly, so we're expected to just let you off the hook?

---
Spolium wrote:Don't get me wrong - I'd like to see a fuller explanation from Budja too. I'm just aware of the fact that he made plays like this as a townie in another game; he seemed to be wishy-washy and vague, was the prime suspect for an entire day, came ridiculously close to a lynching and ended up being the guy who zeroed in on the scum.
So what you're trying to tell me is that budja looks scummy but he's actually secretly the best player we have so we shouldn't lynch him. Well, at least you're getting creative in your protection now. :roll:

---
Goatrevolt wrote:I'm going to keep/upgrade my random vote on Springlullaby, because I know she's posting in other games, but she's avoided this one. I feel like I'm getting bogged down in the minor details with Budja. I need to step back and assess the big picture and see if his actions really make him likely to be scum or not.
Your hesitance to pull the trigger on your, in my opinion, well thought out and presented Budja case has me a bit confused. After all the effort you went through, debating with Budja and Spolium, you'd really rather go on a lurker hunt? Am I missing something here?

---

Preview Window Edit: I agree with everything Goat just said in regards to fhq.

FoS: fhqwhgads


---

Unvote, Vote: Budja
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Post Post #83 (isolation #5) » Thu Feb 05, 2009 8:29 pm

Post by Ice9 »

Spolium wrote:I didn't think that it was a terribly productive way to ascertain the reasoning behind Budja's actions, for reasons which I've stated already.
So instead of oh, I don't know, trying to find a more productive way of ascertaining Budja's reasoning, you tried to shoot down Goat's attempt to do so? What, are you allergic to scum hunting?
Spolium wrote:I think it's important to make a distinction between the two, since townies can easily and unintentionally do things which are anti-town.
Stop. Making. Excuses. For. Budja.
Spolium wrote:Scum actively try to avoid appearing anti-town - I've found this to be universal. To say my comment is "a WIFOM
mess
" is something of an exaggeration.
You're using your opinion - and yes its an opinion, not a fact - as this general brain sink to avoid actually analyzing Budja's actions. Saying "its anti-town but not scummy" explains absolutely zero. And yes, it is WIFOM, and I'll call it a mess if I want to.
Spolium wrote:Not quite. My point was that he couldn't answer the question in a meaningful way
Every answer to every question is meaningful in some way, and trying to get someone to
not
answer a question is only stifling the flow of information.
Spolium wrote:so the only way he could expand upon this would be to guess how a group of individuals (most of whom he hasn't played with before) would react to either of these. He would basically be guessing, and be open to criticism not in the sense that he would be implicated, but in that there would be no "right" answer to give.
The way in which he speculated could have been helpful in diagnosing whether he is pro or anti-town, but now it won't be since you gave him such an overt in thread warning to stay the hell away from the topic because its a minefield.
Spolium wrote:No, I don't think he looks particularly scummy. Where did you get that idea?
Well when you call somebody
Spolium wrote:wishy-washy and vague
or at least liken him to somebody who's play you characterize in such a way, I just assume that like the rest of us you find wishy-washy and vague to be indicative of trying to cover something up, like for instance an alignment which is anti-town.
Spolium wrote:My argument was that in my experience Budja has played like this as town, and to say that he's proven himself perceptive and capable where necessary is a far cry from claiming he's the best player we have.
But you are providing a totally uncalled for meta defense. Got it.
Spolium wrote:I
really
don't like this. Your flagrant misrepresentation of my arguments
How have a misrepresented your arguments. Please, demonstrate this to me. Because it seems to me that all that has happened here is, you bolded what you perceived to be the weakest part of my points and responded to these (I believe thats called... strawmanning, is it?... and responded to these by simply restating your same points in more words
Spolium wrote: (not to mention loaded language - see the bold text in the above quotes) concerns me a great deal.
If you'd like to try and prove that my
writing style
somehow makes me scum, I'm all ears.
Spolium wrote:Aggressive play is one thing, but it looks like you're just casting suspicion around in the hopes that something will stick
Oh no no no, now you're the one making misrepresentations. I am casting suspicion in very specific directions, and not simply "hoping that something will stick," I am driving home the point to make sure that it does. Nobody will be able to miss this post.
Spolium wrote: (not to mention throwing your vote at an existing case without contributing anything of substance).
Ok, did you not see the part where I spoke of my agreement with the case already in place against Budja? If every single person voting for someone had to bring some new, unique piece of data forward we would very likely never get anywhere at all. We can't all be the shepherd, my friend. On a bandwagon, somebody has to play sheep.
Spolium wrote:This was the last game in which WolfBlitzer posted (on 31/01/09), and
he hasn't posted elsewhere since then
, even in his other active game.

This is a ridiculously insidious way to drum up suspicion against someone.
Talk about loaded language. Well, excuse me for not checking site wide player logs before making a comment. My point that he is dropping, and has dropped, off of the communal radar is still valid.
Spolium wrote:WHOOPS I GUESS I'M PROTECTING WOLFBITZER NOW TOO, RIGHT?
WHOOPS I GUESS WHEN YOU SARCASTICALLY REFERENCE YOUR FIRST MISTAKE IN ALL CAPITAL LETTERS IT ACTS AS DAMAGE CONTROL, RIGHT?

---

Spring really needs to step it up, however I can't help but feel that she's just an easy scapegoat for people who are otherwise unwilling to participate in the larger debate going on around them. Primarily don_johnson and Azhrei seem to be guilty of this.

And how can we forget good old Budja, who offered up this deliciously hypocritical critique of Spring:
Budja wrote:Look at all the comments and suspicions flying on the previous page Springlullaby, if you have no opinion you are either have to be lying or haven't read the thread properly.
Why, my good fellow, you obviously gave all of the "comments and suspicions flying" at least a cursory glance, so why, when you don't seem to have an opinion or any comment yourself, do you feel it is necessary to go out of your way to take a potshot at Springlullaby for the exact same thing?
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Post Post #91 (isolation #6) » Fri Feb 06, 2009 6:59 am

Post by Ice9 »

Continuing to butt heads with Spolium isn't going to get us anywhere today, as its not him I even want lynched.

So lets try a different tack:

@
don_johnson
: Why did you unvote Budja when you did? Why haven't you mentioned him since then?

@
Springlullaby
: Who do you think is the most likely to be
town
based solely on reactions to your contributions, specifically.

@
Lynx The Antithesis
: On a scale of one to ten, where one is surely town and ten is surely scum, please give me a number quantifying your level of suspicion of Goatrevolt.

@
Azhrei
: Could you please explain this comment:
Azhrei wrote:That said, I find it odd how you all jumped on fhq
Who is "you all," and why is it odd? And once you have reread, I'd like to know whether you think the things fhq was being jumped on
because of
make him more likely to be scum, or to be town, in your opinion.

@
RedCoyote
: If you had to choose right now, totally by yourself, who the lynch would be today, who would you choose?
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Post Post #94 (isolation #7) » Fri Feb 06, 2009 1:24 pm

Post by Ice9 »

Lynx wrote:Things do change in mafia though. On a similar note, I don't really agree with the change of direction you've tried to create by your recent line of questioning. By shifting your focus you've evaded Spolium's response. You say that butting heads with him isn't helpful, which can be true if other players use at to shy away from participating, but it's still necessary to address points against yourself even if you don't want Spolium to be lynched.
I say it isn't helpful because our dialog has hardly even gotten a response from anyone else in the game. Spolium has a clear case of the OMGUSes, even if I wasn't actually voting him, and I can tell that no amount of back and forth with him is going to get him out of either the mindset that I must be scum for so vehemently attacking his position, if he's town, or the strategic use of tunnel vision to avoid other incriminating uses of his vote, if he's scum.

Now on to your response to my question. Why is four pages not enough to have an opinion you can stand behind without calling it "an estimation"? Does a higher page number really make someone's posts more valuable for determining their alignment? I'd say Goat can stake a claim to a reasonably large proportion of the activity in this game, only four pages though it may be. You really seem to have tried hard not to take a divisive stance on this question. And your answer had to tie into you overtly reminding us of your own supposed alignment why, exactly?

And lets just single out one thing which I find particularly interesting:
Lynx wrote:I didn't mind him pushing Budja either because I believe it was the best course of action to bring the game to a serious level
So, he brought the game to a serious level by pushing Budja and thats all well and good. What do you think of the content that this generated? Do you think Budja responded well to the pressure? Do you think Budja's response makes him more likely to be scum?

---

OK, don, you answered the first part of my question, if somewhat vaguely, but you totally ignored the second part. Why are you now choosing not to mention Budja at all unless prompted to do so, when earlier he caught your attention enough to earn your vote?
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Post Post #102 (isolation #8) » Sat Feb 07, 2009 6:53 am

Post by Ice9 »

Spolium wrote:Something else which has come to mind is the fact that his questions - in my opinion - are notably generic, with the possible exception of the one to don_johnson.

@Spring seems little more than an oddly dressed up "who do you think most likely to be mafia". @Lynx is weird also, in that it requests quantification yet no explanation. @Azhrei involves two questions - one concerning the bloody obvious (who does "you all" refer to in the context of Az's statement that it was "odd how you all jumped on FHQ"), the other being the fairly generic "given [perceived actions], do you think [player] is scum". @RedCoyote is "who do you want to see lynched", RC's answer to which I imagine would be something like "the guy I'm voting for".
Why is it that all you ever seem to be doing is trying to shut down other people's attempts to scumhunt?
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Post Post #160 (isolation #9) » Wed Feb 11, 2009 8:16 pm

Post by Ice9 »

I'm back don't replace me please.

I'll catch up tonight/tomorrow (probably tomorrow) and get a good post in here.
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Post Post #178 (isolation #10) » Fri Feb 13, 2009 8:29 am

Post by Ice9 »

Mod, other players, I'm sorry but I've been busier than I thought I would be recently. I don't want to replace out, but I may have to. I'll know by tomorrow. Bear with me.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #11) » Sat Feb 14, 2009 9:27 pm

Post by Ice9 »

OK it will be another day or two before I can read and post, but I'll be back with several days to spare before the deadline so I'm happy to say I don't need to be replaced.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #12) » Sun Apr 12, 2009 12:39 pm

Post by Ice9 »

Hey everybody, its good to be back. It looks like a lot has happened since I left, so I'll need to read up but then we'll be back in business.
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Post Post #909 (isolation #13) » Mon Apr 13, 2009 10:15 am

Post by Ice9 »

I've realized that while I'm reading it would be really helpful to know what everyone has claimed. Can somebody just give me the quick rundown of any claims made by living players?
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Post Post #912 (isolation #14) » Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:32 pm

Post by Ice9 »

OhGodMyLife wrote:With an already revealed doctor, I find it extremely hard to believe that we'd have both a second doctor AND a watcher. Three roles that punish scum for targeting the most pro town targets seems very, very excessive.

Don, did you get any useful results?
QFT

(The jig is up, apparently)
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Post Post #914 (isolation #15) » Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:57 pm

Post by Ice9 »

For clarification, OhGodMyLife is not in this game, as this account is an OhGodMyLife alt.

I have not finished reading up. I find it oddly convenient that your watch results seem to confirm the second doctor, but I really don't think its likely that a remaining two scum would put the game on the line running a risky gambit like false-confirming each other with fake claims.

Who were you watching, exactly?
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Post Post #916 (isolation #16) » Mon Apr 13, 2009 7:30 pm

Post by Ice9 »

All right well thanks for clearing that all up, I think thats important info to have as I'm reading. I'll be back when I'm caught up, shouldn't take much longer.
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Post Post #921 (isolation #17) » Tue Apr 14, 2009 6:16 am

Post by Ice9 »

It seems that some wires got crossed in what should have been an obvious and nigh unbeatable circle of town actions - leave only one doctor able to be killed, and have a watcher on that player to force scum to sacrifice a member if they wanted to kill it. The fact that this did not occur is what makes me question the validity of one or both remaining claims. I am still in the process of reading through the thread, but it seems like we should almost definitely be in the business of lynching one of these two today.
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Post Post #923 (isolation #18) » Tue Apr 14, 2009 8:01 am

Post by Ice9 »

Rhinox wrote:And the fact that spring CCed a mafia fakeclaim... Anyone starting to think 2 scumteams of 2 yet?
Spring counterclaiming budja in my opinion almost excludes the possibility of two two-man scumteams altogether. If spring were scum with budja on a two person team, she would not cc him on day one and throw him under the bus like that with a doc claim, not knowing anything at all about the makeup of real power roles in the game - a single cautious cop could end the game for her team. Its also very unlikely that spring on a seperate two man scumteam would cc budja, because at that point she has no reason to believe that Budja isn't in fact telling the truth, and if she's on a scum team of two its a safe bet to think there could very well be a second scumteam out there, and why would you sacrafice a member of your own scumteam helping both scumpairs get rid of the doc?

Out of the two claimed power roles, I'm actually much happier believing Spring's claim than don's.
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Post Post #926 (isolation #19) » Tue Apr 14, 2009 10:23 am

Post by Ice9 »

don wrote:that aside, lynching me seems like an unecessary gamble for town at this point.
This much is true, but you and Spring absolutely MUST be targeting one another tonight.
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Post Post #933 (isolation #20) » Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:09 am

Post by Ice9 »

If there were a hole in the circle being exploited by scum, it would have become clear based on what happened which of the claims were fake. As it is, leaving the power roles to their own discretion left Jebus unprotected and unwatched, and we come to today still knowing nothing for certain about the alignments of either remaining claimed player and with one dead doctor.

If Spring and don target one another tonight, then one of three things will happen - don will die, outing spring as a liar, spring will die, and in the process don will either catch a scum in the act or be caught as a liar, or neither will die and the mafia will leave a potentially deadly combination of doc/watcher alive to mess with them on future nights. I am all but certain that they are not both mafia, so if one of them is, then in order to keep their cover they must leave the true power role alive, and if neither of them is mafia, the scum must either sacrifice a member to get rid of them or leave them both alive.

The worst case outcome of this is that don is mafia, spring dies and he drops a fake result, causing a mislynch, but even this would still leave don to be lynched with five players alive, making for a winnable three man endgame.

If either Spring or don refuses to participate in the cross targeting, we just lynch them.

Can somebody give me a short and sweet version of the case against sekinj? I'd like to know why she's the most viable lynch at this point, and the deadline looms.
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Post Post #958 (isolation #21) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 3:51 am

Post by Ice9 »

Something is very, very wrong with these claims.

It could very well be massclaim time after all of this.
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Post Post #965 (isolation #22) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 5:06 am

Post by Ice9 »

Vote: don_johnson


If you ignore his claim, which is now EXTREMELY questionable given the appearance of another claimed investigative role, then his actions surrounding the early budja wagon become extremely damning.

Spring protects sekinj tonight, and my opinion is that sek should investigate one of {Spolium, Rhinox}, but in the end its up to her.
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Post Post #975 (isolation #23) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:16 am

Post by Ice9 »

Unvote


Rhinox's circle plan should be followed.

Spring -> sek -> don -> Spring
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Post Post #976 (isolation #24) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:16 am

Post by Ice9 »

Hey the preview button is my friend - processing the post from Lynx
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Post Post #978 (isolation #25) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:27 am

Post by Ice9 »

There are way too many claims. Lynx's results don't rule out the possibility that he's naive. I mention this because Rhinox is one of my top two suspects outside of the claimed group, based almost entirely on likelihood of being Budja's scumbuddy.

There are also a lot of paired roles going on here - dead doc and claimed doc, two claimed cops. Could be a pattern, could just be coincidental fake claim(s).

I am virtually certain that Lynx is town - either sek is truthfully a cop, in which case there's an innocent investigation on him, or sek is lying, in which case Lynx is a real cop counterclaiming.

So Spring should certainly be protecting Lynx. Yes it removes the random chance WIFOM from the scum kill, but it also means that the most confirmed town power role lives regardless, unless scum Spring wants to sacrifice herself to kill him.

don's watch should be on Spring. Lynx's investigation is up to him, but it should probably be hitting sek, since with Spring's protect he's guaranteed to live to tomorrow to possibly confirm her. sek's investigation should still be someone in the pool of unclaimed players.

And I think that covers all of the bases.

With an innocent investigation result on Rhinox, my unclaimed scumlist drops to one -
Vote: Spolium
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Post Post #979 (isolation #26) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:30 am

Post by Ice9 »

Also,
Mod: Can we get a round of prods, and a deadline extension to find replacements if necessary?
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Post Post #981 (isolation #27) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:34 am

Post by Ice9 »

sekinj wrote:
Is anyone vanilla??



maybe the mod put in tons of roles so we would all counter claim and kill each other off. maybe that is how the town is balanced with the scum.

I definitely am ready for a mass claim.
A mass claim right now will just add to the confusion. I think we need to have a lynch and a night to resolve whats wrong with the current claims before we think about massclaiming. And trying to outguess the mod is a recipe for disaster.

Also, for what should be obvious reasons, nobody should answer whether or not they are vanilla.
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Post Post #987 (isolation #28) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 8:29 am

Post by Ice9 »

Mod: You missed my vote for Spolium in Post 978.

Can Springlullaby be prodded? She hasn't posted in ten days.


Didn't miss it, the count was right, just forgot to move your name ;) fixed

And spring is excused.
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #29) » Fri Apr 17, 2009 7:06 am

Post by Ice9 »

Apparently it was very chic for the rest of the players in the game to get together and write a novel in the thread in between my last post and now.

Sigh... I've got to do a more in depth read of what all just happened, but lets just say

Yes to Spolium claiming - and its not totally a process of elimination on you, its a process of elimination among people who I think stand a very good chance of being Budja's scumbuddy based on day one play. You must remember our sparring match over just that subject while Budja was still alive.

No to massclaim, unless Spolium drops another PR claim on us.
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Post Post #1014 (isolation #30) » Sat Apr 18, 2009 1:07 pm

Post by Ice9 »

Spolium is taking a long time to give us a claim.

Claiming your role as town takes seconds.

Crafting a convincing fakeclaim is a serious time investment.
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Post Post #1022 (isolation #31) » Sun Apr 19, 2009 8:55 am

Post by Ice9 »

Don, you intend to be watching spring tonight, yes?
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Post Post #1039 (isolation #32) » Mon Apr 20, 2009 6:07 am

Post by Ice9 »

I could also lynch Red Coyote, now that I think about it. He and Spolium are the only ones who I'm willing to go for.
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Post Post #1102 (isolation #33) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 9:48 am

Post by Ice9 »

I'm here and willing to switch to RC, but I need to know enough other people are online to make a lynch happen, otherwise I'll stay on Spol as he's already got the votes and I see that Lynx is on to be able to switch.
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Post Post #1103 (isolation #34) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 9:50 am

Post by Ice9 »

I see Rhinox promised a deadline Spol vote if necessary, lets hope he delivers, a No Lynch would be a complete disaster.
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Post Post #1105 (isolation #35) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 9:52 am

Post by Ice9 »

Unvote, Vote: RC


Still here to provide a Spol lynch if it can avoid the NL, but it looks like this gets us one vote away from a hammer.
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Post Post #1106 (isolation #36) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 9:54 am

Post by Ice9 »

Don not even having a vote out at deadline is exceedingly bad. Spring staying off the major wagons is also very bad. Rhinox promising to switch to one of the contenders but not showing up - also bad. See where I'm going with this?
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Post Post #1110 (isolation #37) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 9:58 am

Post by Ice9 »

RC is at L-1, Spol is at L-3, but you me and lynx switching would hammer him.
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Post Post #1115 (isolation #38) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 10:00 am

Post by Ice9 »

Time is literally about to be out, so you need to choose which of the two you're voting for Rhinox and Lynx and I are willing to switch if we have to.
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Post Post #1117 (isolation #39) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 10:00 am

Post by Ice9 »

Phew. Simulposts out the wazoo.
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Post Post #1119 (isolation #40) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 10:01 am

Post by Ice9 »

Did we ever get any confirmation from don on whether or not he's watching spring tonight?
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Post Post #1136 (isolation #41) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 12:17 pm

Post by Ice9 »

So don, did you get any results?
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Post Post #1139 (isolation #42) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 12:37 pm

Post by Ice9 »

Well good, that confirms you are in fact a watcher.

If it wasn't completely obvious when RC called me out on it, I'm also a watcher. And its almost certainly massclaim time.

don - Watcher
goat - ????
Ice - Watcher
Rhinox - ????
sekinj - Cop
Spolium - Vanilla
spring - Doc (Unknowing Jailkeeper?)

Night three I watched spring, and saw don visit her. Night two fhq watched goatrevolt and saw Jebus visit him. Night one whoever was supposed to be in this player slot was missing in action and no watch was submitted.

I have some ideas, but we need to fill in those two blanks before we continue.
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Post Post #1162 (isolation #43) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 7:28 am

Post by Ice9 »

don - Watcher
goat - Vanilla
Ice - Watcher
Rhinox - Vanilla/Deputy Cop
sekinj - Cop
Spolium - Vanilla
spring - Doc (Unknowing Jailkeeper?)

There are at most two more scum, meaning at least three of the claimed power roles are true, and thats just the living players. We already have three dead power roles as well. Thats six (strong) town power roles at a minimum.

Between claims and deaths we have
2x cop
2x doc
2x watcher
1x tracker
1x unknowing deputy cop
3x vanilla

RC was indeed right that I was an unclaimed watcher when I was commenting about the pattern of doubled power roles. His death as a tracker actually made me expect another tracker claim to pop up.

Now, as far as the pattern of the roles go, latent deputy cop seems to be the obvious outlier, since all the other roles were active from the start, and a role that starts as vanilla without knowing its actually got a power seems really unusual for a mini normal.

But my other line of thinking here is that, with so many town power roles, the mafia group is going to need a boatload of power itself in order to have a chance of winning. It had a roleblocker - is it so unlikely for it to have a second roleblocker? Remember,
at least
six town power roles are in this setup. One roleblocker hardly seems like enough to stop the onslaught of watching, tracking, protecting and investigating.

----
goat wrote:Considering your claim of watcher, why was a watcher + 2nd doc hard to believe?
Because 2x watcher, 2x doctor seemed like way, way, way too much punishment of the scum for targeting the most pro town targets for nightkills.
goat wrote:Why did it take someone else claiming an investigative role for you to vote Don, considering you've claimed an investigative role yourself?
Because 3x (and later 4x) investigative role claims seems like way, way, way too many investigative roles for the scum to possibly win against. Now that its up to 6x investigative roles between RC's death and Rhin's deputy claim, this is even more true. Between the weight of my inside knowledge of too many protective and pseudoprotective roles AND too many investigative roles, I decided it was time to vote don.
goat wrote:You suggest mass claim, but then shoot it down? What changed?
I realized that as long as nobody knew I was a watcher, I would be able to both confirm that don was visiting who he said he was, and confirm he was in fact a watcher, just by watching the same person. This was better than massclaiming, and also better than lynching don. It worked, as we have in fact confirmed one another as watchers.

----

Working theory:

Spring is a second mafia roleblocker. After no one counterclaimed budja and she had been run up, she counterclaimed her own scumpartner under the false assumption that there just wasn't a doctor at all, in order to survive the day herself and hopefully get falsecleared for the remainder of the game.

Somebody is a mafia godfather - I seriously doubt both of the remaining cop claims are false, which means there were two cops of one form or another in this setup at the beginning. My sense of balance is telling me that 2x mafia rb + mafia gf vs approx. 6 town power roles including two cops seems balanced-ish.
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Post Post #1219 (isolation #44) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 6:10 am

Post by Ice9 »

I strongly disagree with lynching sekinj

I think we should be lynching one of Spring/Spolium

I also think that Rhinox's claim is a little bit too unbelievable and worry about him coming up with a magic guilty in lylo

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