Mini 157: The Long Winter - Game Over.

[Fuldu]

Oy, no indication of role or even alignment. And just after I finished up What's Going On, too.

random

vote: Kingpin

[Fuldu]

Never mind then.

[Fuldu]

Maybe he was a regular townie and the reason for the guns was to trip up an investigative type role who can check people's homes for guns at night?

I don't disagree with the suggestion, but that looks like an attempt to wheedle an alibi if there is a gun checker in the game.

unvote: Kingpin; vote: Xanthe

[Fuldu]

I wasn't saying anything specific, just a "we already had one pro-town player who would have showed up as having a gun, why don't you believe me," alibi.

[Fuldu]

Hmm, three of the most experienced players in this game are voting for me. That can't be good. I can't really respond to DP or IS, but I will say to Quailman that in going back over other games he's been in, DP rarely says his votes are random. I found some instances where his first vote clearly wasn't random, and he said so. And I also found some instances where, at most, he said something to the effect of "no reason."

Obviously it's not solid evidence, but of the three, if I had to guess at one being scum, I'd say IS. It's not an argument I'd use against anyone else, but I would have expected him to have voted for me three days ago, after Quailman did, or, at the latest, on Tuesday when he posted that there were no obvious scum. It's odd to think that IS seems scummy because he's

less

bloodthirsty than usual, but there you are.

unvote: Xanthe; vote: Internet Stranger

[Fuldu]

Can we get confirmation that massive is still playing? He's not the only one who's been quiet - I've been pretty quiet myself - but he's had two votes on him for a few days with a promise of a third if he remained silent, and still hasn't posted.

Urm, unless my math is wrong, he's had four votes on him with the promise of a (now placed) fifth for a few days. Right now massive is one away from lynch, so casual remarks that seriously underestimate the number of votes on him are just asking for a "Oh, I thought there was still a few votes to go" lynch.

FOS: Xanthe

[Fuldu]

I saw this and was thinking my count couldn't be that far off. And it's not. Both Xanthe and I were off by one, and Coron didn't include the name of who he wanted to unvote, so Coolbot didn't accept the change. So Xanthe's comment wasn't as bad as I was thinking it was.

unFOS: Xanthe

[Fuldu]

I think Uraj's claimed role can be more useful than you're making it out to be. I don't think it's any more disruptive than a roleblocker, and can be equally (if not more) useful from an investigative standpoint. In the event that Myopia had been killed last night, it would put a good likelihood (though, of course not a certainty) on MeMe being scum. As it is, we know she's not the bomber if Uraj is telling the truth.

That said, I'm not confident I believe the claim. And given who we've outed Day One, I'd rather be wrong about this than keep making the rounds and risk having an important role claim.

unvote: Internet Stranger; vote: Uraj45

[Fuldu]

So all we have is three players with gut feelings about the scumminess of four different people? No wonder this game has ground to a halt. Well, I know Coron is wrong about me and I believe that he's wrong about MeMe, as well. But bad instincts aren't a reason to lynch someone.

And that leaves kwyjibo and IS pointing the finger at one another. I'd like to blame IS for yesterday's lynch, but I'm compelled to admit that the hypnotist claim seemed fake, so that doesn't seem especially fair. But at the same time, I see no reason to follow him again.

Which brings me to this:

It's too obvious to look at the people who voted for Uraj. Scum are too smart for that.

Well, sort of. But that doesn't mean that it's likely that none of the scum were on the bandwagon. I'd imagine that one of the five of us still alive is scum, maybe two. My read on this comment is that Quailman is trying to direct attention elsewhere, and I see no reason for a pro-town player to limit the scope of our examination.

vote: Quailman

[Fuldu]

I'm not mad. You're just as wrong as Coron, but I'm not mad.

[Fuldu]

And, I would further add, Myopia has also suggested a feeling that MeMe is innocent, but Coron doesn't seem to be interested in any connection between them.

[Fuldu]

Right, but your only reasoned argument about why I'm mafia has been that I'm connected to MeMe, who you also think is scum. So I'm suspicious because I'm connected to MeMe and I'm connected to MeMe (rather than merely defending her, as Myopia is) because I'm suspicious. Oh, and because of your gut.

[Fuldu]

And, I would further add, Myopia has also suggested a feeling that MeMe is innocent, but Coron doesn't seem to be interested in any connection between them.

I stated a logical reason why me me was mathematically less likely to be scum. Sorry guys Ill just stick with the gut instinct and make accusations without any form of backup next time.

I was sniping at Coron, not you, Myopia. I think the connection he's describing is specious and I think his gut needs a professional examination.

[Fuldu]

That's good enough for me.

IS's vote on kwyjibo much of yesterday and all of today, without a single post to say "Why haven't we lynched kwyjibo yet?" or, really, much of his generally aggressive behavior at all, has said cop or scum to me for a while. I've been watching, hoping to get an indicator one way or the other. I really don't think IS would have posted the above comment to Coron if he were the cop, so

unvote: Quailman; vote: IS

.

[Fuldu]

Unless I'm mistaken, that's four on IS and three on me. And IS hasn't shifted his vote to me yet, but no doubt will, leaving only Xanthe to break the tie.

I'll claim if you go first, IS.

[Fuldu]

Well, IS was pretty insistent on lynching kwyjibo, suggesting a guilty result. Of the three he mentioned (kwyjibo, Quailman, and Myopia), I actually find Myopia the scummiest feeling, but I'll gladly lynch either of them.

[Fuldu]

Well, the non-random vote isn't really a good argument with IS, because he'll pretty much always do that, but yes, I think there's a good chance he investigated kwyjibo Night One. I also think, given his wholly uncharacteristic reluctance to vote on the only competing bandwagon, that he investigated me Night Two and got, naturally, an innocent result, but I know that sounds self-serving.

[Fuldu]

Coron was all like pro IS why you think Coron suspicious?

Well, your dead certainty that MeMe was scum certainly doesn't help.

[Fuldu]

Note it looks we do have two killing groups with some kind of bomb setting SK who me me was after. Any ideas why we havent had a kill from the bombmaker after the first night?

The remainder requires greater thought to reply to, but this is easy. I'm unconvinced that we have two killing groups. It's not unheard of that two killing groups would only get off one kill on each of three nights, but it's improbable. Note that we've had three different kills on each of the three nights, a burning, a shooting, and a knifing. Instead of different groups, this says to me that the scum have different kill methods. MeMe was possibly a limited cop, who was only able to find one of the scum, or equally possibly a limited doctor who prevented that one type of kill.

[Fuldu]

The fiasco over kwjimbo was not representative of a cop with a guilty investigation at all - he was all over the place only coming back to kwjimbo when any other available bandwagon petered out.

I disgree with this completely. As I said when I voted him, I had had him pegged as either cop or scum for some time, and it was only his ill-conceived challenge to Coron to claim cop that made me exclude that as a possibility. In retrospect, I assume IS was trying to catch Coron in a lie, and I don't think that was especially good play, but I had been considering cop as a definite possibility up until that point.

Im also not sure that we can play like IS was a cop or had an investigative role at all. So far all the roles we have seen have been variations on the traditional roles. I dont think sherrif would be any different.

Well that's an incredibly scummy suggestion. First of all, nearly all of the roles we've seen haven't been revealed as anything at all. Second, since nobody seems to think that IS had an investigative result on you, just a hunch, you aren't defending yourself here. You're defending kwyjibo. There's no reason for you to do that unless the two of you are working together, so this just fuels my suspicion that you're both scum.

vote: Myopia

[Fuldu]

Well, I look like I'm going to be on the block again today, so I'll make the same offer I did yesterday. Myopia, I'll claim if you will. You've already started, so I imagine you'll be more willing to take me up on the offer than IS was.

Coron, which of IS's posts screamed cop to you? Saying "that post" without any context doesn't help a whole lot.

[Fuldu]

IS is right you guys have been playing rather poorly(I'm sure I should take some credit too). To me that post screamed I AM COP. But you lynched him too quickly without thinking.

If that's the post you're talking about, you can really only blame Myopia and Quailman (notably, the other two he fingered besides his pet project kwyjibo). There was only an hour between that post and Quailman's lynching post. I would have backed off when I saw that if I didn't see the lynching post at the same time. Of course, if he'd actually claimed cop in that post, Quailman wouldn't have had any cover for his vote.

Myopia, I get the impression we both have the same reason for wanting to go second. That said, you've already said you don't have any scum investigations so far, so you can hardly be hoping to catch me in an inconsistency. Tell you what, you give the name of your role, I'll give a full roleclaim, then you can give a full roleclaim. Deal?

[Fuldu]

Alright. I'm the gunsmith. Myopia has purchased a gun from me. While this isn't completely incompatible with his claim, I don't believe it. We've already had two pro-town players that I'd get false positives on. I don't think there's a third.

I said I'd claim fully, so here are my other choices. Night One I checked IS, who had a gun. This was the other reason I was working on the assumption he was either a cop or scum. Night Two I checked MeMe, who didn't have a gun.

This role is also part of the reasoning behind my suggestion that the scum each kill a different way. If IS was our primary cop, and MeMe and I could each find one of the scum, that might be a reasonable investigative layout.

[Fuldu]

Well, those of you voting me who aren't scum are wrong. Look over the entirety of my posts since Day One. They're all consistent with the claim that I've made. Furthermore, they're consistent with the existence of a Gun Enthusiast, who would have been an innocent that I found to be scum. It's also consistent with my wanting IS to claim first yesterday and wanting Myopia to claim first today. It's interesting, because if Myopia had just backed off, I wouldn't have been confident that he's scum. As it is, there's no question that he's just plain lying.

[Fuldu]

One cop and three half-cops, and I was a largely useless cop (three bad results to one good result for gun and 2 bad results to five good results for no gun; I might as well have been a random cop). Plus, two half-doctors do not a doctor make. If DP had targeted a doctor of the wrong sort on the night a player was killed, he would have assumed that the doc was scum. Looking back over my votes, my gut instincts had me voting for Xanthe Day One and Quailman Day Two, but my investigative information pushed me back to IS and, later, Myopia. Ah well. Good play, scum. I'm not convinced this was balanced, but you played well, even still.