I on the other hand am just reading it for the first time, I'll try and power through it tonight.Raskol wrote:Hello all.
I've been following the game since mid day 1 and I'm already mostly familiar with what's been going on, so it shouldn't take me too long to do a quick reread to refresh my memory.
Mini 836: Commie Mafia (Game Over)
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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I'm a goddamn American hero for replacing into this game.
~
I know several house cats that demonstrate more intelligence than CoCo did early in the game. However, everything I've seen suggests town as well and CoCo/Raskol is way down on my lynch list.
I think any assumptions of Vaya's innocence based around his inability to make the N1 kill and a two person scum team are overblown. However, someone did make that kill and it wasn't Vaya so I'm opposed to a Socrates lynch at least until we can eliminate the source of the N1 NK.
Charter is blatently stacking lynches based upon Peabody in 123, even more suspicious in retrospect since Peabody flipped scum and Col. Cathart town. Also charter you’re a whole hell of a lot more argumentative early in this game then I’ve seen you as town in our recent incursion(s).
Hoopla’s D1 policy lynches proposal also seems to run in contrast to her town play in charter’s Stratego mafia as well.
So I've got playstyle issues with Hoopla and Charter, but nothing serious enough for me to consider lynching on right now.
When I ran my patented Triple D trend analsysis I had four names that appeared to rise above the rest in terms of likely scum: Peabody, Cyberbob, Haru/SC, and mathcam. Due to D1 interactions with Peabody I believe cyberbob to be the most likely to be town of the set and I believe SC and mathcam to be the most likely scum in this game.
Unvote; Vote: SerialClergyman
He's scum, lets lynch him.-
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A long slog of idiotic town play from CoCo and a meta read on Raskol that this is consistent with his town play.charter wrote:
And you're basing this on....??Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
Well I don't know why you and whatever scum have declared their interest in lynching him haven't done so yet, but I'm not helping out since he's not scum.charter wrote:Why haven't we lynched Raskol yet?-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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It certainly can contribute to a town read. Scum have a vested interest in not appearing to be either scummy or anti-town, so if you've got a player who isn't helping the town, but his play doesn't seem to be helpful to scum it strikes me as more likely to come from a townie playing poorly than scum.SerialClergyman wrote:On more serious matters - DDD, I'm a big believer in not confusing anti-town with pro-scum but I wouldn't claim that anti-town behaviour that's not necessarily scummy makes someone likely to be town. It might not be a scum tell, but it's not a town tell either, surely?
If you have a town read on Raskol and a scum read on me, why not participate in the active discussion more than as a direct response to charter?
I sincerely doubt I'm not going to convince charter of anything he doesn't want to be convinced of and cyberbob seems the same way. It gives the push for the Raskol lynch an air of certainty, to be honest I'm waiting for it to build up more pressure and then I anticipate a collapse of the wagon where I'll then begin a hard push for you to be the lynch in the absence of another wagon at that time.
Nineteen completed games and someone is just explaining this to me; this explains everything.Cyberbob wrote:
Here's a helpful hint for you: being anti-town and useless is more or less the primary mechanism by which scum win.Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:And no he wasn't; certainly anti-town and pretty useless, but not scummy.-
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Beyond CoCo's very VI-ish behavior. Scum simply don't post at the outrageously fast clip that CoCo did at the beginning of the day. Also I can discern no scum benefit from such an unprompted claiming such as CoCo did. And then there's Raskol's meta where the more aggresive posting style and tone fit with his town play more than his scum play.mathcam wrote:DDD: Good question from SC. Can you be more specific on why you don't think he's scum?-
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See, everyone else seems to agree that le Chat was useless and anti-town, except I replaced into the player slot and know that he was town so in this game alone I see a viable exception to your rule. I lost way too many games as town early in my career by accepting the easy lynches of scummy looking townies and thus have become much more skeptical of such play. Maybe your experience has worked out that you could simply the most obviously scummy and anti-town players and win, but that's been the opposite of my experience.Cyberbob wrote:DDD - le Chat's replacement, remember - is pressing forward with his "too scummy to be scum" defence of CoCo/Raskol I see. Not a good defence at all I'm afraid, especially when you look at how CoCo seemingly realised that he was posting so horribly and attempted to drop off the radar. He did it a few times; the middle of Day 1, a good chunk of the start of Day 2 and possibly one more that I can't pinpoint off the top of my head.-
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So the fact that the player slot is town aligned just further backs my argument then, huh? Just continues to show that "anti-town" and "scummy" behavior really don't correlate terribly well to whether or not a player is scum and looking beyond the superficial is critical.charter wrote:le Chat wasn't useless or anti-town, he was scummy. Big difference. He consistently gave weak opinions on players and waffled on them, which is scummy. It lets you figure out what most of the town is thinking and then you can agree and step on as few toes as possible. There was also virtually no scumhunting in his posts. Hardly any votes either.-
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Question, how is this different from you setting up Cathart's lynch based upon Peabody's flip. Now granted your setup was based on Peabody being scum so it would've required a bit of sacrifice on your part, but you and I both know that wouldn't scare you if you thought you could use that first lynch to coast to endgame.charter wrote:
I'd also like to point out that this kind of setting up lynches is abhorrently antitown and I'm betting that he knows that a DDD lynch followed by a charter/SC lynch would be game.Raskol wrote:If DDD flips town, I'm pretty sure charter and SC are our scumbuddies.-
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Looking from his perspective it means he's trying to not get lynched which for me is a null-tell and he's doing it by trying to sacrifice me as the next most likely lynch. Despite his dislike of le chat's play I've pushed the player slot back into the unknown but an unknown lynch is still better than a known townie lynch and he thinks worst case if I flip town; best case I'm scum; worst case I'm town but he thinks he can hopefully use my lynch to lynch his scummier reads. Poor strategy, but probably the best option he has being backed into a corner and all.charter wrote:
This is really circular, and not ever going to convince anyone, but what do you make of Raskol's "lynch DDD, then if he flips town lynch charter/SC"?Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
So the fact that the player slot is town aligned just further backs my argument then, huh? Just continues to show that "anti-town" and "scummy" behavior really don't correlate terribly well to whether or not a player is scum and looking beyond the superficial is critical.charter wrote:le Chat wasn't useless or anti-town, he was scummy. Big difference. He consistently gave weak opinions on players and waffled on them, which is scummy. It lets you figure out what most of the town is thinking and then you can agree and step on as few toes as possible. There was also virtually no scumhunting in his posts. Hardly any votes either.-
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Let's see we have a no breadcrumbs from Sens as far as anyone has been able to identify let alone him targeting le chat. Furthermore, Sens is well-known for his erratic play so trying to guess what was on his mind at the time seems like a fools errand.Hoopla wrote:I'm going to alter my stance and swap to DDD. I'm starting to come around to mathcam's logic that chasing the hider's target is probably the best prediction we can make.-
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So you admit Sens is reasonably smart, but he's a hider who left no recognizable breadcrumbs and we're expected to glean some insight from this? It looks like you just needed a reason to vote or to add to a list of weak reasons instead of having an actual argument.Hoopla wrote:
I know Sens is erratic, but it doesn't mean he is stupid. He is not going to hide behind his scum reads - this almost certainly means he didn't hide behind CoCo, which is the fundamental reason why I am not chasing that lynch. It lowers Raskol's odds of being scum enough to counter my suspicion on him. He also wouldn't have hid behind Vaya.Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
Let's see we have a no breadcrumbs from Sens as far as anyone has been able to identify let alone him targeting le chat. Furthermore, Sens is well-known for his erratic play so trying to guess what was on his mind at the time seems like a fools errand.Hoopla wrote:I'm going to alter my stance and swap to DDD. I'm starting to come around to mathcam's logic that chasing the hider's target is probably the best prediction we can make.
Independent of the hider guessing, le Chat's play is scummy enough to be in my top 2 choices for lynch.
Raskol is still town and you and mathcam still need killing.SerialClergyman wrote:DDD, I agree with you, but were you just reading along and decided to pop in just after Hoopla switched her vote to you? Any comment on anythign not directly affecting you?
No, I see no reason to punt the day away for basically no net gain because I don't think you hypotownflip helps me and the town at all. Those who are going to push my lynch are going to bust out the trite "trying to earn town points" argument anyways and push for my lynch regardless of your flip.Raskol wrote:
I really really strongly suggest that anyone who finds this even the slightest bit credible should vote for me today. I am absolutely 100% serious.Plus, he keeps saying a DDD townflip will clear him while condemning me and Serial. Seriously? Sounds to me like he knows DDD is town, sees he is going down, and is planting seeds in everyone's head for his coast to victory.-
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I know, that's what makes Raskol's play so maddening for me. If he is town he seemingly doesn't realize that he doesn't need to pull these outrageous gambits when his wagon was slowly falling apart. But his play only really makes sense to me as scum partnered with SC himself and I think that's beyond the unlikely.charter wrote:Yeah, when I requested the votecount, I was actually preparing to vote SC, because his theories have these gigantic holes in them, and I know that as town, his theories are air tight.
Here's seven/eight points on why we should be lynching SC.
1) Peabody mentions Harumafuji twice solely due to his weird posting style and mentions SC once saying he’s town for absolutely no reason. I realize this isn’t a point exclusive to Harumafuji/SC, but it certainly makes him a credible scum partner.
2) You see minor defenses of Peabody throughout SC’s early play. Things like, “Peabody having an RVS vote is in no way suspicious” may be completely true but they reflect extremely poorly on SC.
3) His first major case is against cyberbob who remains likely town based off his early position on the Peabody wagon. Four of his points including the first ones he brings up are all based around cyberbob’s attacks on Peabody. Low level chainsawing certainly seems possible.
4) His second wagon starts on another confirmed townie (Talitha) and he begins the post with, “I don't see any reason to particularly think Peabody is scum.”
5) And just a few short days later he quickly tosses his vote on Peabody who he never suspected until his meltdown. Might as well try and get a little town cred out of the affair anyways.
6) Helped lynch a claimed power role despite later admitting that he thought the flavor fit the game.
7) And D3 has been just a glaring mess of waffling play against easy targets.
8) Charter specific: I assume you’ve got the proper read on me now and you’ve seen my trend analysis work before so while you might not know my methods you should know I’m employing a reasonably accurate form of analysis for me in good faith.-
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mathcam wrote:...though 1318 is now confusing me.Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
No, I see no reason to punt the day away for basically no net gain because I don't think you hypotownflip helps me and the town at all. Those who are going to push my lynch are going to bust out the trite "trying to earn town points" argument anyways and push for my lynch regardless of your flip.Raskol wrote:
I really really strongly suggest that anyone who finds this even the slightest bit credible should vote for me today. I am absolutely 100% serious.Plus, he keeps saying a DDD townflip will clear him while condemning me and Serial. Seriously? Sounds to me like he knows DDD is town, sees he is going down, and is planting seeds in everyone's head for his coast to victory.-
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Just wanted to point out that you're still voting for yourself. Was gonna let it go, but it's enabling others to put the town in a bad situation.Raskol wrote:
Just wanted to point out that I never said anything like this. Was gonna let it go, but apparently he was serious.Socrates wrote:1 scum, 1 town: ScumRaskol would in this situation be trying to argue that a townie defending him makes him more likely to be town, which is pretty bad logic.-
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His plan rests based on assumptions that simply don't hold. While we "know" that Socrates didn't make the kill night 1 I feel it's a mistake to assume proof positive that he's town even with the WIFOM sandwhich given to us by peabody. Furthermore, SC tries to press an assumption of mathcam as town based on a single not that compelling incident, considering mathcam is my second favorite lynching target there's no way I agree with his assumptions and thus his plan falls apart for me.Cyberbob wrote:I would suspect that at least part of the reason Raskol and DDD haven't spoken out against SC's idea is because any plan that involves declaring them town from the outset is a good one from their perspective regardless of its actual soundness.
But since I'd called for him to be dead before any plans he proposed and afterwards as well I thought it was pretty clear I wasn't buying what he was selling regardless of any hypothetical benefit to myself.-
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SensFan wrote:Cyberbob, grow a backbone. Are you seriously advocating that you are ok with absolutely never lynching Scum D1?
You're stretching so hard you've probably dislocated several verterbrae. I said it when Hoopla brought up the same point, simply guessing at what Sens was or wasn't thinking is a fool's errand and it disregards the wealth of actual information we have to work off of.Raskol (parody) wrote:I might be stretching, but this looks like a breadcrumb to me. It was almost his last post of the day. Sensfan's role was called coward. Cowards are known for their lack of spine. I think Sens was trying to link his role name to cyberbob, hoping we would make the connection if he died. It looks at first glance like nothing, because cyberbob was talking about not lynching any power roles, and so for all you could tell beforehand (without knowing his role name) Sens might just have been berating him for that reason, but the more I think about it the more I'm convinced that this was Sens' breadcrumb. Towntells or not, I think this is a big turning point for me on cyberbob.
The above is the equivilant of basing a lynching decision on far from conclusive and non-exclusive possible breadcrumbs.-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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I buddied you in post game after we won you sociopath, in fact my last post in that game I was accusing you of being possible scum, hardly buddying behavior. I guess I did stop myself to ask a question of you in regards to play, but that's because I trust your experience not because of some need to buddy with you.Raskol wrote:Well, it's not entirely based on that. Everything I said about le Chat in my first posts still applies, and besides, I've also been getting a queasy feeling that you're buddying me in both the games we've been in together. I really hate those queasy feelings, you know?
Seriously though, I get that he said something similar to Cyberbob, and that's a valid point, but I don't think I'm going to abandon the idea just for that. Besides, I've never seen you react this way to an accusation against you before; it has me kind of interested.
You know what gives me a queasy feeling? How terribly you've been playing this game. You're picking arguments that you can't win because of what you're arguing and who you're arguing against regardless if you're right or wrong. Every time it looks like there's some traction in another direction other than you it seems like you're actively trying to get things flowing back towards yourself. But hey I'm not going to let my play be dictated by niggling suspicions when the evidence and my instincts point a different direction.
And yeah, I get a little cynical and sarcastic when the guy I've effectively saved from a lynch that looked pretty inevitable to me decides to completely reverse field and stab me in the back based off an old (and I thought discarded) bad read of the player I replaced and some illusionary bread crumbs.
You can keep stabbing your arm with heroin Raskol, but you'll never catch the dragon because there is no dragon.-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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Ha ha funny joke. If I don't address it then suddenly maybe someone thinks it's a legitimate point and I have to deal with more incorrect suspicion because of it. Or someone in their re-read stumbles across it and considers it legitimate because I didn't address it. Not going to take that chance even if it looks overreactionary.Raskol wrote: ---This isn't personal. I'm interested in finding scum and winning the game, and so I'm going to treat everyone as just another player: if that bit about you buddying me offended you, understand that it was in the context of the game and half a joke anyway (hence "seriously though").
The last game I played where players chose to disregard their town reads in favor of playing "follow the (paranoid) cop" helped the town to it's defeat and two of the three people who abandoned their reads were scum. You're on even more imaginary ground here and I'm not impressed.Raskol wrote: ---If anyone else thinks similarly to you, I'll drop the point. You have to understand that I can't let you be the only one to convince me I'm wrong, because if you're scum then I can't trust you on this. Again, not personal, just mafia.-
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A cop innocent or someone claiming a reason you couldn't have made the night one kill would make me reconsider. But anything you could say, probably not.SerialClergyman wrote:DDD - is there anything I can do to allieviate suspicion, either now or tomorrow after a raskol flip? Anything I haven't explained or whatever?
And not to alleviate suspicion on you, but I'd like a mathcam lynch even more than yours so if it comes down to you versus him, right now I might go him.-
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Shouldn't it be one or the other? Doesn't strike me as the best idea to show our hand and then hand control back to scum. Either we massclaim and play it is as it lies or send it back to night to better our odds in LYLO. Leaning towards no lynch myself.charter wrote:Erg. Should we massclaim then no lynch?-
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Very interesting.
Claim: Combat Medic (Vig or Protect)
Night one, le chat protected cyberbob (I'd assume for the same reason charter is claiming to have protected him).
Night two, le chat attempted to kill Vaya/Socrates (Again I assume this was to remove the WIFOM situation placed in front of the town).
Night three, I attempted to kill mathcam.
I have more on nights two and three, but like charter will wait for full claims.
Let's make cyberbob go next.-
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Pretty sure that I made it clear that I though he was scum...Hoopla wrote:DDD: What was your reasoning for targetting mathcam last night?
Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:I believe SC and mathcam to be the most likely scum in this game.Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
Raskol is still town and you and mathcam still need killing.SerialClergyman wrote:DDD, I agree with you, but were you just reading along and decided to pop in just after Hoopla switched her vote to you? Any comment on anythign not directly affecting you?
~~~Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
And not to alleviate suspicion on you, but I'd like a mathcam lynch even more than yours so if it comes down to you versus him, right now I might go him.SerialClergyman wrote:DDD - is there anything I can do to allieviate suspicion, either now or tomorrow after a raskol flip? Anything I haven't explained or whatever?
Anyways, I want hoopla's explanations for night three since she claimed to try and kill me and yet I'm still alive. After that I think I'll have enough information to lay everything on the table.-
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My read wasn't dependent on them being teammates so SC's flip didn't alleviate my suspicions of mathcam at all, they were simply the most scummy to me, clearly I read that wrong.charter wrote:DDD, why did you kill mathcam after you saw Serial flip town?
~~~
Anyways, time to put this one away and apolgies to SC for not believing him, the scum team is Cyberbob and Hoopla because I was roleblocked BOTH night two and night three. I know what you're thinking, how do you know that you were blocked N3 when mathcam died and you targeted him with a vig kill? Because I recieved a PM from the mod stating that much and when I asked about le chat's night actions his night two kill had a note next to it that it was also blocked. The fact that Cyberbob and Hoopla both claimed to be roleblocked on seperate nights, but neither recieved confirmation tells me that neither of them was actually roleblocked. I'm 100% sure Hoopla is scum because of this and 99% sure Cyberbob is scum.
Vote: Cyberbob-
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Here's how a no lynch goes: I attempt to kill Hoopla-scum. They roleblock me for a third straight time because if I die then the game is over for them and Hoopla's death also blows open the game for the town. They've built Socrates as the other lynch candidate so they'll keep him alive because his death indicts Cyberbob. Charter-doc will protect his one town read in you Raskol and then get iced himself.
So if we're going to do this we might as well do it now because I don't think that scenario helps us at all unless you've got some super-secret plan that you're not telling us.-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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- Joined: January 21, 2009
- Location: Columbus, Ohio
My trend analysis picked him up as highly likely scum, from there he fell into a too easy lynch on day two and seemed to be undercontributing and just content to snipe at the easy and incorrect targets of le chat and then both you and I on day three.Raskol wrote:And from Danny, why he found mathcam so suspicious.-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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charter wrote:Ok, now I just want to know why Hoopla picked Sens and then I'll post my thoughts.Hoopla wrote:
A few reasons. I didn't like his jump on the Peabody wagon - I thought if anyone was bussing, it would probably have been his vote. He was the one that put him at L-1. Second was the way he buttered up toward me at the end of D1, every time I've played with him as town we always get into petty fights, so I found it kind of odd. And third, because I find him hard to read.charter wrote:Hoopla, why did you investigate Sens night one?-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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I already outlined what's going to happen, be sensible about this, a no lynch does us no good. Trust your freaking reads and don't hand the game over to Raskol who has played terribly this game.charter wrote:Like I said, pretty sure it's Cyberbob/Hoopla, but upon reflection, forcing everyone to come up with another night of actions would be good. I also think that we shouldn't talk about any night actions for tonight anymore (to try and figure out if someone will by lying tomorrow).
vote no lynch-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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Yeah okay, my role fits the flavor of the game better, fits neatly with the rather obscure role of Hot Nurse, doesn't overpower the town like combination JOAT/tracker would, and my one night action that was my own fits quite clearly with what I expressed my feelings were on D3.Cyberbob wrote:By the way, where's the suspicion on DDD for claiming doc/vig thatjust happenedto be used on mathcam last night? Oh and by the way he alsojust happenedto have "tried" to kill Vaya/Socrates on Night 2 but oh wait that attempt failed.
Seriously, apply your methods to his claim and see what happens.
The final nail in the coffin, I claimed extra information in regards to both nights two and three before you claimed to be blocked on night two and Hoopla claimed to be blocked on night three. Besides being blocked what other information could I possibly had to share about those night actions? I left the truth out in plain sight and you and Hoopla tried to get around it, but you got caught.-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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A) We're not in some post-apocalyptic dystopia or the Wild West, we're in Anytown, USA. (Apparently an Anytown, USA with a hospital nearby).
B) Dodges addressing the obvious symmetry of Doc/RB and Doc/Vig. And when you stack a tracker, a JOAT, and a hider together you've got three investigative roles on one side, it greatly reducing the town's necessity of actually scum hunting correctly in favor of a few power roles correctly identifying scum. With the Doc/Vig replacing the lying fake tracker and JOAT the town has a minor investigative role in the hider, but other than that has possibly useful pieces and parts in the triple (partial) docs, but nothing that strong.
C) Didn't say your fake night actions didn't make sense for what you'd said only that you were trying to turn it around on me and my actions matched my words.
D) You're right it was beyond your control that the mod told me he that I was being blocked. Not sure why he felt the need, but I appreciate the thought and how it helped expose you two as the lying scum you are.
~~~
Charter, it's time to be like Spike Lee and do the right thing.-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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And you would've lynched a townie, now granted that wouldn't have been so bad since he was vanilla as well, but it would've put me in a bad spot if endgame hadn't broken the way it had.charter wrote:Serial, my one piece of advice to you is never unvote a selfvoter. Vote them twice as hard. When you unvoted, I immediately assumed you were scum and didn't consider an alternative.
My scum reads sucked, but just as importantly my town reads were good and I managed to keep them alive to narrow the rest of the suspect pool, but frankly it came down to scum overclaiming in the massclaim which allowed me to just lower my proverbial horns and chase down Cyberbob and Hoopla.-
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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I did start to lose confidence in your lynch at the end of the day, hence why I mentioned mathcam as being a better lynch. But frankly even if you were town I needed to see you dead because my prior suspicions would've probably wrecked us if we ended up in LYLO together. Had to play my gut instincts and had to protect my town reads (charter and Raskol) and your death combined 'em both in the most efficient way for me.SerialClergyman wrote:DDD, you were obvtown to me, which is good, but your tunneling on your first read despite massive, gamechanging posts from me was both frustrating and dangerous. If cam hadn't died we might ahve been in trouble.
But your decision at the end was top notch, I'm defintiely glad there was no real push to lynch Socrates, one of the only two vanilla claims left.
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