Mini 237- Basic Mafia - Game over!

[Falcone]

Vote: Commodore Amazing

Have fun everyone!

[Falcone]

vote: viqles

He knows what he did.

What did he do? I'm curious, and viQLes won't be back for some time to explain .

[Falcone]

I completely agree that's a perfect reason for a random vote . I don't like the show too much myself.

[Falcone]

Don't forget that viQLes is away until the end of the week. It would be good to hear from d8p though.

[Falcone]

I seriously am from Europe. Do you need more specific info? Let's just say I'm studying in its capital (technically not, but I guess a distance of 15 km means nothing to you Americans ) Also, I'll take the opportunity to let you all know that English is not my first language. That shouldn't be a big problem, but I apologize in advance for any grammar or spelling mistakes I may make.

[Falcone]

I don't see what in Sineish's post makes one think that he is a townie with no abilities. Maybe ChocoCid can explain why he said that?

He said the mix of roles meant that starting with day was the only way to make the game balanced

What do you guys think this means? How does starting with a Day change the balance of a game? Are there any roles that are too powerful when starting with a Night?

[Falcone]

Mod, while you're here, could you do a vote count? I'd be most grateful.

[Falcone]

Nightfall may post a lot, but I don't see much content in his posts. Isn't that typical lurker-behaviour? So why unvote him and vote for Sineish, who has less posts than Nightfall, but more content? I don't think he deserves suspicion for the d8P thing. His question and FOS were reasonable in my opinion.

Unvote: Commodore Amazing
Vote: Mr. Stoofer

[Falcone]

Nightfall, I think you deserve that FOS. Like I said earlier, it's not the quantity of your posts that bothers me, it's the lack of content in them. It's true that this game is a little slow and that not much is happening, but one of the things I find suspicious is people who point out exactly that fact and do nothing to change it. Only in your last post one can begin to see a glimmer of usefulness, so if you continue to go in that direction, I think you'll be fine.

[Falcone]

Vote Count:

ChocoCid- 1 (ibaesha)
Commodore Amazing- 1 (Seol)
Mr. Stoofer- 1 (Falcone)
Seol- 1 (Nightfall)
Sineish- 1 (Mr. Stoofer)
viQLes- 1 (Stewie)

There's only one change since then: viQLes is now also voting ChocoCid.

I think it'd be useful that the people that aren't currently voting place their vote on the one they suspect most, and we go from there. I'll keep my vote for the moment, and I'll

FOS: Stewie and Nightfall

for the reasons already mentioned (i.e. posting without contributing).

[Falcone]

That deadline really did help to create discussion and move the game forward.

ViQLes, do you really think it's likely that:
a) none of ChocoCid and the 4 players voting for him are scum
and
b) the scum would be so stupid to jump on and lynch him?

Also, and maybe that's more serious, you seem to assume that there's exactly three mafia members. Three is a plausible number, but by no means a certainty. So do you know something about the setup that the town doesn't know?

FOS: ViQLes

[Falcone]

Mr. Stoofer has not done anything to enlarge my suspicions since I voted him. And since the reason for my vote for him was fairly weak to begin with, I'll

unvote: Mr. Stoofer

. So I'll go back to one of my earlier suspicions and

vote: Nightfall

for reasons mentioned earlier, and for his last post, in which he attacked Mr. Stoofer for very dubious reasons.

[Falcone]

It might have been better if d8P had waited to see if ChocoCid's claim was believed or not before coming out, but in any case, we now have two confirmed innocents. As the deadline is approaching, I think we need everyone who's voting for ChocoCid and anyone who isn't voting to vote for their preferred lynch candidate. My vote stays on Nightfall for now.

[Falcone]

That explains the second part of your post, but you still need to clarify why you think there might not be a mafia. Another thing, this is the second time you make a blatant bandwagon vote without giving reasons. I already FOS'sed you earlier for a strange post, so consider this a confirm-FOS.

[Falcone]

So d8P can only vote 15 times in the game? Interesting. To me it seems that's a weird restriction, mainly because it doesn't seem problematic at all. Let's presume d8P stays alive for 5 days (I think it's unlikely the game will go on for much longer.) Then he can vote for three different people each day. Not a big deal, right? I'm not saying I'm suspicious of him, I just wonder why the Mod included a role like that in the game.

If I get it right, we need 4 votes to lynch someone at the deadline, so Nightfall is one away from a deadline-lynch. I'm still happy with my vote on him, so I think he needs to make a convincing defense very soon.

[Falcone]

Oh, that changes things. Can we have a

Mod-prod for Seol

, please? He's posting in other games, so probably he has forgotten this one.

Deadline in 54 hours, if my understanding of time zones is correct.

[Falcone]

I have to say, I don't think a social life actually suits me that well, but sometimes it just happens...

It's noted that you checked in less than half an hour after I asked the Mod to prod you.

I would agree with a viQLes lynch today. I reread CA's posts and I don't know what to think about them. There are some things that made me go "hmmm...", but nothing that stands out really. Stewie doesn't seem like a good lynch to me.

Nightfall remains my top suspect, and I invite him to give a defense.

[Falcone]

I was away for little more than a day and I come back to find this. Unfortunately I'm not able to make a well-thought-out post at this moment. (Almost too tired to see the letters on my screen.) I'll just say that I FOS'sed viQLes earlier, for two different posts, that he did more scummy stuff since then, and that I'll vote for him when I get on in the morning (should be well before the deadline), if nothing amazingly spectacular happens before then.

[Falcone]

Vote: Sineish

His explanation for the penultimate vote on vIQles doesn't convince me. And I think it was very obvious that with the doctor dead, one of the outed masons would be killed. The mafia can't let confirmed innocents live until the endgame.

[Falcone]

Nightfall, you were being attacked because you lurked (as in posting regularly but without making a contribution to the game), you were aware of it (post 93), and when you finally made a game-related post, you voted for Mr Stoofer for very weak reasons. You were on five votes at a certain point and you were almost certainly going to be lynched at the deadline. Yet, you managed to escape without having to claim. You even indicated that you’d rather not claim (post 230) Oh, and in your first post of the new Day, you pretend that you’re being attacked for no reason.

FOS: Nightfall

(as far as that’s still needed).

Seol, I did ignore your post because it’s impossible and unnecessary to defend yourself against unfounded accusations. If you had given reasons, I would have made a defense. If there had been several people saying I was scummy for no reasons or with vague reasons, I would have asked them to clarify so I could defend myself. In this case it’s just one unfounded accusation, so I didn’t see the need to respond. I’m awaiting your case against me.

[Falcone]

To start at the beginning, I have no connection whatsoever to Sineish or Ibaesha. Yeah, shocking, I know. Of course, I can only explain my own actions to you, not those of other players. I agreed with Sineish about the d8P-affair because what he said made sense. And I voted for Mr Stoofer for his switch to Sineish because at that time Nightfall seemed more suspicious to me. I don't think I said anything (good or bad) about Ibaesha in this game. It's a fact that I was suspicious of or FOS'sed or voted for several players yesterday, but it was Day 1 and I just wanted to share my thoughts with the town.

Note that I’m voting for Sineish at the moment, for his behaviour yesterday evening and this morning.

Note that Seol is using the same quote twice as evidence against me (or to be exact, as evidence for the idea that there’s a connection between me and Sineish). That seems to imply that the evidence for his accusation is quite weak.

Also note that his analysis of yesterday’s bandwagons is, to say the least, one-sided. I think it’s very well possible that Nightfall’s wagon never got up to speed because his scum buddies didn’t want to see him lynched. ChocoCid’s wagon stopped because he claimed mason. And the vIQles wagon was lightning fast and must have had a lot of townies on it. Incidentally, the only wagon I was on was the still-suspicious Nightfall, and not the proven-innocent-by-dead vIQles or ChocoCid. (To be fair, I would have voted for vIQles hadn’t Stewie been quicker.)

At least I’m happy that you chose the right one to vote for.

Commodore, do you mind sharing your reasons for your vote on Seol?

[Falcone]

Wow, writing that post took me some time, so I didn't see the three posts before it.
1) Commodore, I see you've switched your vote, but I'm still interested in your reason to vote for Seol before.
2)

Unvote: Sineish

to give him time to claim. This is an incredibly fast bandwagon, shouldn't we be a bit more careful? And if Sineish does turn out scum and you all want to lynch me for this, go ahead - it would still be a one for one trade.

[Falcone]

No one's posted here for 24 hours... I guess we're all waiting for Sineish's claim. Sineish, you're at 4 votes + 1 VoS (d8P) + 1 virtual vote (me), so now is the time to claim.

[Falcone]

That's actually a very good post, Sineish. I don't nessecarily agree with all of it, especially with what you said about the masons. But I think it explains your behaviour quite well. In the end, the only important thing I see against you is the 5th/6th vote for vIQles, and frankly, I don't see what scum would hope to achieve by doing what you did. I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt for the moment. What does the town think?

No vote for the moment.

[Falcone]

I'll explain my previous post. I supported Sineish because while I think there's a possibility he's scum, the speed of the bandwagon on him scared me and made me suspicious of some people. If Sineish does turn out to be innocent, I'll be looking angrily in their direction. Now I realize that if he turns out to be scum, I've dug quite the hole for myself. Like I said before, a one-for-one trade is good for the town, but please let me defend myself before you do something to me (i.e. vig-killing me).

I probably won't be voting for Sineish today, but if the town thinks there are enough holes in his story, then go ahead and lynch him.

[Falcone]

So Ibaesha was a cop. She has had the opportunity to make one investigation, since we started in day. Reading her posts from yesterday, I don't see any hint to who she investigated. In her first post of the day she voted Sineish and FOS'sed Nightfall. We know that Sineish was innocent, so either:

-a- Ibaesha was a non-sane cop with a guilty on Sineish,
-b- she had a guilty on Nightfall,
or
-c- she investigated someone else and got innocent.

If it was -b- her play wouldn't make much sense I think, so it should be -a- or -c-, with -c- by far the most likely. All in all this doesn't give us much information. I'm very curious why the mafia has killed her, tough. I don't see anything in her posts that gives away she's a cop, so why kill her instead of d8P, the confirmed innocent?

Any comments on this analysis?

[Falcone]

Lots of development here. My thoughts:

1) Thanks to everyone who reacted to my previous post. There seems to be some slight disagreement about the rarity of non-sane cops in Mini games, but at this point I don't see what a mafia member would gain from saying Ibaesha might have been an irregular cop.

2) Commodore, you realize that your theory was flawed from the start, right? It's impossible that Seol is a cop with innocent on Mr Stoofer and yourself, because there has only been one night.

3) When Seol said yesterday he knew (or thought he knew) who the third mason was, I realized he was talking about Commodore. I have one question though: Why is it that you don't think anymore that Commodore is the third mason?

4)

FOS: Nightfall

I'll give my opinion over the events of the last two days later tonight.

[Falcone]

I see. Thanks for clearing that up.

[Falcone]

I think there's a good chance Seol is mafia. There are many reasons for this, not all of them very conclusive, but I'll let you guys judge for yourselves.

1) The thing that first got my attention was this:

I've received my prod (oh, the shame! Haven't needed a prod since my first newbie game), and I hadn't forgotten about this one - I've just been busy (I have to say, I don't think a social life actually suits me that well, but sometimes it just happens...) and I've been prioritising games where I was in the middle of big arguments (the fun ones) over the one nearing deadline without much happening (the boring one). Sorry about that...

This sounded to me like: "I was a little busy, so I might as well lurk in the game in which I'm scum."

2) He was a main driving force behind the two townie lynches. He mentioned he'd like to lynch vIQles when there wasn't a bandwagon on him yet, then he didn't let go, and at the end he was the first to dismiss vIQles' doctor claim. Right before Sineish was lynched, he said that he understood what Sineish meant with his comments on the masons, and yet he went ahead with the lynch.

3) He made the weird post about Sineish, Ibaesha and me being scum without giving reasons. Now I see that setting a trap for someone isn't necessarily scummy, but it's certainly a tactic the mafia could use. Where he went out of line I think is when he said Sineish' reaction and mine were suspicious. My reaction to the accusation I explained already and I can certainly understand Sineish'. When he later gave reasons, it was clear they were very weak, based on one supposed "association tell", and a lot of "voting pattern analysis", which was essentially saying: "X, Y & Z didn't vote for each other Day One, so they must be scum together." And we all know who two of the three people he attacked turned out to be…

4) Initially I was suspicious of Seol for another reason, namely the fact that he supposedly had figured out so much of the game in the post where he gave his reasons.

As for ibaesha, that was simply a process of elimination - one player was the mason (not too hard to work out), others had been explicitly attacked and pressured - others were still possible, but ibaesha fitted best.

Now, he recently explained why he thought Commodore was the 3rd mason, but that's still an awful lot of confidence for a townie with limited or no knowledge of the setup, isn't it?

5) One more little thing:

Overwhelmingly likely, in my opinion. Which doesn't tell us much, really.

I'm very curious why the mafia has killed her, tough. I don't see anything in her posts that gives away she's a cop, so why kill her instead of d8P, the confirmed innocent?

This one's obvious - they know the masons aren't the cop. Aim at a non-mason, and you've got a better chance of hitting the cop (or vig, or roleblocker, or whatever), which generally pose a greater threat.

This could be a mafia member eager to point out to a newbie why he made his kill. And apparently our outed mason, who is an experienced player himself, was certain he'd die last night.

So, official

FOS: Seol

, and waiting for reactions.

[Falcone]

Something Seol said made me go and look up the End of Day Vote Counts. I found this:

viQLes- 7 (ChocoCid, Mr.Stoofer, Seol, Commodore Amazing, ibaesha, Sineish, Stewie)

Sineish- 6 (ibaesha, Mr. Stoofer, Commodore Amazing, d8P, Seol, Stewie)

-On both lynches: Mr Stoofer, Seol, Commodore Amazing, Stewie (& Ibaesha)
-On vIQles but not Sineish: no one
-On Sineish but not vIQLes: d8P
-On neither: Mikeburnfire, Falcone, Nightfall

Seol was absolutely right in saying he wasn't the only one on both townie lynches... Now I admit that those on the vIQles lynch are partly excused by the fact that he really acted very suspicious, but still, it can hardly be a coincidence that so many of the voters are the same. It's also noted that Stewie was the final vote on both lynches. I'm not sure if that's an important ground for suspicion against him tough.

Talking about Stewie, I think his plan has merit. If we lynch/vig at least one scum, we arrive in Day 4 with 5 people, 2 of which are scum, but we'd have some confirmed innocents: d8P, Stewie, and the 3rd mason. At least one of those three will survive in this scenario, and will be around to help lynch the right persons. There is one problem with this plan though: if there's a mafia roleblocker out there, we lose. All this assumes of course that Stewie is telling the truth. He has a plausible role and he hasn't been under serious suspicion all game, so if no one counterclaims, I'm willing to believe him.

[Falcone]

I think we can be fairly confident that Stewie is telling the truth if no one else claims vig, be it one shot or unlimited. Therefore, I don't think it's worth it going no lynch and telling Stewie who to kill, because that will confirm him, yes, but we'd run the risk of losing outright (if we choose the wrong target), and essentially we'd lose the advantage his power gives us. Also, don't forget that we can lynch someone, and then Stewie can decide if he should kill or not, depending on the outcome of the lynch (he must of course kill if the victim is innocent). So if everyone could declare they're not the vigilante, I think we can start to discuss who the two targets should be.

Mikeburnfire, you haven't posted yet today. What's your opinion on this?

[Falcone]

I assume that no one who has posted since Stewie claimed wants to counterclaim. Seol, are you a vigilante? Who do you think is suspicious?

[Falcone]

Stoofer, you realize that the doc is dead, right?

FOS: Mr Stoofer

. It's probably just a case of not paying attention, though.

I'm in favor of a mass claim. I think it would be a good idea to let d8P decide the order of claiming. Any objections to that plan?

But first, I want to hear what Seol's suspicions are, what he thinks about the double-lynch plan, and if he's a vig or not.

[Falcone]

I am indeed the last mason. I have no special abilities or restrictions.

That makes our list of claims the following:

d8P: mason with voting restriction
Stewie: one shot vigilante
Mikeburnfire: roleblocker
Seol: townie
Commodore Amazing: townie
Nightfall: cop
Mr Stoofer: townie
Falcone: mason

For reference, the dead people:

vIQles, doctor, lynched day 1
ChocoCid, mason, shot night 1
Sineish, townie, lynched day 2
ibaesha, cop, shot night 2

I think that two of the three claimed townies are scum, with one of Mike or Nightfall. If that's true, the original setup would be 3 scum, 3 masons, 2 townies, 4 power roles (doc, cop, vig, and either a roleblocker or a second cop). I believe that both Mike and Nightfall are telling the truth about their roles, but they could be respectively a mafia roleblocker or a mafia cop/rolefinder. Before I say anything else, I want Nightfall to give the explanation he promised (I think I have a pretty good idea what he'll say, but I want to hear from him regardless), and also say what his investigations are and why he didn't give them already.

[Falcone]

Wow, that's a lot of new information. From what I can see, either Mike is scum or Nightfall is scum. I'm too drunk right now to decide, I just take note of the fact that Commodore was confident enough to vote for someone. More analysis in the morning. By the way, I like this game...

[Falcone]

My thoughts:

1) There's no way there are two sane cops in this game. Therefore, either Ibaesha wasn't sane (no evidence for that in her role description), Nightfall isn't sane (which would likely make Stoofer scum) or Nightfall is a lying mafia member.

2) One of Mike or Nightfall is scum. It would surprise me greatly if they were both scum though. I agree with Stewie that Nightfall has been more suspicious earlier, but that it's more important to lynch Mike if he really is a scum roleblocker. I have to say that Nightfall has been more convincing in his story than Mike. It's mostly the fact that Mike said: "Even if I'm not a pro-town blocker, that doesn't mean I'm a scum blocker", that makes me very suspicious. It seems logical to me that a mafia blocker would claim roleblocker, rather than vanilla townie. One thing that bothers me, is that I don't see why he would lie about his night choices, even if he were scum.

3) I noticed immediately what Nightfall was doing in his first post today (spelling "block" with the first letters on each line). So I don't agree with Commodore that hiding clues like that is useless if he was a real cop, because no one would find them. My first thought was that he meant he was a roleblocker himself, especially when he asked how common roleblockers are in Mini's. That's the reason why I FOS'sed him on Day 3 without giving a reason.

4) I was more or less convinced of Stoofers innocence before (no clear reason, just a feeling I had), but now he seems to emphasize a little too hard that the "lynching committee" must decide and that anyone who doesn't follow them, must be scum. He seems to be trying too hard to be friends with the three of us, so that we don't lynch him.

5) Commodore is suspicious as hell to me right now. He keeps saying that Mike and Nightfall must be scum together, he keeps making stupid mistakes (ok, so the last one he pointed out himself, but still) and this quote made me really suspicious:

vote: Nightfall

. I'd vote for mikeburnfire since getting rid of the mafia roleblocker is better, but I know that the vig and the masons might want to keep mikeburnfire around on the off chance that he's town and that he'll save us if we're wrong about Nightfall.

He is the first to vote in or at least near a Lynch or Lose situation, but his justification is even worse. If he knows that lynching the roleblocker is better, why doesn't he vote for him? There is no way that Nightfall and Mike are both townies, so if we are wrong about Nightfall, Mike isn't going to save us. I know he did that before Mike confirmed his N1 block of Nightfall, but for an attentive reader it was already clear that one of them had to be lying. Hmm, thinking about it some more makes it even more incriminating: If the two of them are innocent, together with the three of the lynching committee, then who's the scum...?

I need more time to decide on this. By all means, keep talking so I can make up my mind who we should lynch here.

[Falcone]

So you are saying that you seriously considered false claiming as a townie? Also, you claimed roleblocker "because it felt like it would benefit the town the most"? I'd think you'd claim roleblocker because you

were

a roleblocker.

[Falcone]

Actually, CA, I was NOT the last to claim. Didn't wait for the 'mass claim'? Hell, I kicked it off. And yeah, I claimed one of the few pro-town roles that haven't been claimed. I did it because that's what I am. If I were mafia, I wouldn't be stupid enough to claim roleblocker when I was doing a perfectly good job as an ordinary townie. But I'm a firm believer in LYNCH ALL LIARS rule, so I revealed myself. I blocked Nightfall on night one because all he did when I asked for a defense was repeat himself. I blocked Stewie because he cast the final vote on the second day, after making sure only one more was needed.

I claimed roleblocker because it felt like it would benefit the town the most. I weighed the choices very carefully. If I stayed 'townie', then suspicion would pass me up and I had the chance of roleblocking a few people in the night phase. But everyone kept saying that 'any information would be beneficial to the town', so I bit the bullet and came out. And I'm glad I did, dispite what you all say, because it disproved somebody else.

Falcone: Nope, I claimed RB because I thought it would benefit the town. There are times when lying to the town benefits the town. Seldom though they are, I considered this one. If I were a doctor then I would have claimed townie because I can still protect confirmed innocents while remaining undercover. I would have lied, I admit it, and I’m not ashamed.

Could everyone please take the time to read these three quotes very carefully? First Mike says he believes in LAL, then he says there are times it's correct to lie as townie. First he says he claimed blocker because he is a blocker, then he says he claimed because "it benefits the town". He also uses a WIFOM argument when he says he could have easily stayed hidden as mafia. This proves nothing and additionally, I think townie-roleblocker is the natural claim for a scum-roleblocker. There's also a bit of craplogic in his reason for blocking Stewie N1; I'd consider it more scummy if someone placed the final vote on a townie without checking the votecount. As Stewie did it, he took implicit responsibility for his vote by acknowledging he knew it was the final one.

Nice try, Seol, jumping on Falcone's suspicion of me like that. First of all, my vote came before mikeburnfire confirmed the contradiction between him and Nightfall. I thought it was a mistake. Second, I didn't even come up with the idea of lynching the roleblocker instead of Nightfall until the post after I voted (402 vs. 406). I'd be happy to lynch mikeburnfire instead of Nightfall. Third, I didn't think the lynching committee would go for lynching the claimed roleblocker. I have very little reason to believe that mikeburnfire and Nightfall are town, but they might look at mikeburnfire as a second chance if we get the lynch wrong. In that case, I figured they'd want to go for the obvious scum: Nightfall.

Commodore, you are scum. 1) It doesn't matter that your vote came before Mike's confirmation of the contradiction between him and Nightfall. Mike had already said he blocked Nightfall N1 and Nightfall had already said he was blocked N2. The first thing you should think in that situation is: "One of them is lying", not "That must be a mistake". 2) You're flat out lying here: You already considered lynching the mafia roleblocker in post #402 3) You still leave the possibility open that both Mike and Nighfall are innocent. That's impossible for two reasons: It would make the town much too strong, and more importantly, that would make five innocents, which automatically makes you scum.

I think the scum is:
- one of Mike and Nightfall
- Commodore
- one of Seol and Stoofer

On this basis, I'll formulate the following Cunning Plan: We lynch Mike. If he's scum, Stewie vigs Commodore. If he's innocent, Stewie vigs Nightfall. Nightfall should investigate Seol.

I propose killing Mike before Nightfall because I think it's more likely that he's scum than Nightfall, and because leaving the scum-roleblocker alive could be fatal for us. I'm not 100 % certain I'm right about this, but at least we're guaranteed to still be in the game tomorrow. Oh, and as for Nightfall's investigation, I'm not putting too much faith in that, because there's still a chance he's scum, or that he's not sane, or that Seol is a godfather.

If there are no objections, I'll be voting for Mike in my next post.

[Falcone]

So Mike's lynched then. Let's hope we were right about this...

I'll say to Commodore that I know I won't be making the mistake to assume Seol is innocent if you come up scum, so if that's what you're trying to accomplish, it's not going to work.

Mike: Sorry if you really were pro-town, but I don't agree that lynching you was stupid. We can't let a potential mafia blocker alive, and by lynching you and vig-killing Nightfall if necessary, we guarantee that we're in the game tomorrow. That's the most important reason for your lynch, your scumminess is only second.

Oh, and a big thumbs upto d8P for going to such lengths to help me prove my innocence in case of his dead.

[Falcone]

I'm sorry.

Vote: Mikeburnfire

[Falcone]

OH MY GOD! Why oh why didn't Stewie follow the plan? And I know I'm not free of blame either, I should have waited for him to confirm before placing the final vote on Mike. I'm sorry for that.

Well, first things first. Nightfall, what do you have to tell us this morning?

Oh, and I'm sure I don't have to remind anyone that we're now really in lynch-or-lose and that we should be careful with our votes.

[Falcone]

Alright Nightfall, I have to admit that you did the right thing. Your plan was better than mine. The only problem is that since Stewie chose to not follow the plan, your investigation is now useless. I must say that I'm reasonably convinced that you're pro-town right now. And that of course implies that the scum still are the two I've been suspecting for a long time now: Commodore and Seol. I'd like to hear from Seol and especially d8P - we made a long analysis this night, but of course we failed to consider what would happen if Commodore somehow survived.

[Falcone]

I think there are two main reasons why Stewie killed Mr Stoofer. The first one is that he thought there was a good chance that Stoofer was scum - see his post 370. The second and more important one is that Stewie must have trusted Nightfall, and wanted to kill Mr Stoofer to verify Nightfall's sanity. Remember that he was working on the assumption that Nightfall would investigate Seol. With an innocent investigation on a dead player, and whatever Night's result on Seol was, we would be able to figure out Night's sanity. And although he killed an innocent, I think Stewie's plan has worked. I must say I feel a little bit stupid that both pro-town players I was ordering around were able to come up with a better plan, and I apologize to Stewie if my first post of the day was disrespectful to him. To be fair, I was fairly certain that Commodore and Seol were the remaining scum, so it probably wouldn't have mattered. I'm ready to vote for one of those two whenever d8P says so.

[Falcone]

Well, there's not much point in discussing the merits of Stewie's plan for too long, since we can't change what he did. Let's finish this game, shall we?

Vote: Commodore Amazing

Nightfall, I'll be very mad at myself if you turn out to be scum, but in that case, well done, and you deserve to win.

[Falcone]

So much for all my great plans. I feel like a fool now. I know it sounds hard to believe, but all this time I had this nagging suspicion about d8P being scum, because he never died, because a three person mason group seemed so strong, and because he was saying some things that made me raise my eyebrows at night. I never wanted to say anything, because I thought the mafia would be all too happy to make me distrust him even more. And I thought: "Well it's basic mafia, so a scum-mason would be too far out there." That and all the effort d8P put in with that code thing. I have a question though, did you really have that voting restriction? Because that's what did ring some bells for me. It seemed so strange to get a restriction so easy to fulfill.

To Seol and Commodore, sorry for going so fast at the end, but I was convinced of your guilt and I don't think anything could have made me change my mind.

This was definitely an interesting game, thanks to Vikingfan for modding, and congrats to the scum for a very well-played game.

I'm going to sit in a corner and cry for my own ignorance.

[Falcone]

As for my role pm, I suspect it's similar to ChocoCid's. I don't have a restriction or an ability, and although it doesn't specifically say you guys are innocent, it's worded in such a way to make it seem extremely unlikely I can't trust both of you. I actually asked the Mod if we could quote our pm's to each other, but he said we couldn't.

If anyone is interested, I'll post all of the masons night talk. Vikingfan, you must have laughed so hard when I forwarded you the message where d8P explained to me how he hid my name in his posts.

Oh, and I just see that Mike really blocked Nightfall N2. I think that's hilarious.

[Falcone]

Hello my two friends,

A lot happened during that Day, isn't it? It's a shame to have lynched the doctor, especially because it almost certainly means one of you two will die tonight. But I think he played as scum, so he was lynched like scum. Like I said repeatedly in the thread, Nightfall remains my top suspect, but I'll do a reread to see if I find any other leads. What are your thoughts about the game so far?

Oh and d8P, if you could tell me in which way one of your posts clears me, it would be greatly appreciated.

Greetings, Falcone

Falcone, what is the difference in your PM? I assume you have one, since d8p has a restriction and i don't have any. What about you?

I totally agree about vIQles. I understand his mind was elsewhere and I feel for him, though.

And since vIQles turned out innocent, I'm pretty much convinced that Sineish is scum. I knew there was something up when he miscounted, but thought it was too obvious to be real.

As for where I hid you, Falcone, I anagrammed your name in the same post as the one where I mentioned Choco. (game post 44, or post subject: 1 filtered for just mine)

Fighting for your li

fe can lo

se its appeal if you're not doing it amongst friends? Ah! That's it!

The e in the anagram is the 52nd e of the post.
Then I anagrammed it again in (game post 60 or, filtered, post subject 3)

I'll feel responsible for dividing the town on an out of game issue if this escalates, which it will by h

alf once

scum get wind of it.

This time the e is the 24th e of the post, and finally I put your name as the 4th e of game post 61 (filtered post 4)

Extra clues:
I worded that post to have no e's before the word reference in that post, which I deliberately misspelled. I used the words "unusual paragraph" which is the title of a very famous puzzle in the form of a paragraph with no e's. Finally I referenced the positions of the e's in the number 52,244. Press the quote button on post 61 and you'll see that the 4 is special: it looks like this: 52,24[*color=black]4[/*color] without the asterisks. This was to divide the number into the blocks 52, 24, 4 - the positions of the e's in the three posts I've mentioned here.

OK, maybe I got a bit carried away, but I couldn't help it once I'd started. Besides I wanted to use a completely different method to hide your name but felt just anagramming it might not be enough.

So, yeah. Use this in the event of our deaths to clear your name. If they don't believe you, they're definitely scum

What do you guys think about Sineish?

Wow, d8P, you really put a lot of effort in your games! I feel all special inside because you're doing this just for me . By the way, it feels quite good to be an unlynchable townie. I have a bit more room to screw up now (Not that I plan to...)

While rereading I noticed four things:
1. Nightfall somehow escaped without having to claim, even though there were 5 votes on him at a certain point.
2. Mikeburnfire took a long while to get convinced to vote for Nightfall, even though he was the obvious deadline lynch candidate.
3. A lot of players were suspicious of Sineish during the Day: Mr. Stoofer voted for him in the beginning, then he earned a FOS from Mike for being the last to unvote ChocoCid, and at the end Seol FOS'sed him for the 5th/6th vote on vIQles thing.
4. Seol might come under suspicion tomorrow for various reasons: a) being away for a while and not giving a totally satisfactory explanation b) not wanting to vote for Nightfall, even though he was suspicious and the deadline was nearing c) being one of the driving forces behind the bandwagon on vIQles and d) being the first to dismiss the doctor claim.

Your thoughts on these things would be greatly appreciated.

As for my role pm, I suspect it's similar to ChocoCid's. I don't have a restriction or an ability, and although it doesn't specifically say you guys are innocent, it's worded in such a way to make it seem extremely unlikely I can't trust both of you. I actually asked the Mod if we could quote our pm's to each other, but he said we couldn't.

Wow, d8P, you really put a lot of effort in your games!

..and I really don't want to die early but I'm sure it'll be either me or Chococid that gets it tonight as the only known innocents.

1. Nightfall somehow escaped without having to claim, even though there were 5 votes on him at a certain point.

I find it very difficult to get any kind of read on Nightfall. Is he inexperienced? His posts seem to ramble on without saying anything, but not in a way that tells me what kind of rambling it is. I can't decide if his ineptitude is feigned, but he didn't vote for vIQles, whatever that tells us at this stage. I see that NF has already finished 8 games.

2. Mikeburnfire took a long while to get convinced to vote for Nightfall, even though he was the obvious deadline lynch candidate.

..and he didn't pick up on vIQles's tell. OK, so vIQles wasn't scum, but barnfire didn't even look in his direction - he just went after Nightfall.

3. A lot of players were suspicious of Sineish during the Day: Mr. Stoofer voted for him in the beginning, then he earned a FOS from Mike for being the last to unvote ChocoCid, and at the end Seol FOS'sed him for the 5th/6th vote on vIQles thing.

ibaesha mentioned it but didn't make any comment which I found odd. I had to fos Sineish for that. Makes me wonder about a connection there too, but I can't get a proper read off ibaesha either.

4. Seol might come under suspicion tomorrow for various reasons: a) being away for a while and not giving a totally satisfactory explanation b) not wanting to vote for Nightfall, even though he was suspicious and the deadline was nearing c) being one of the driving forces behind the bandwagon on vIQles and d) being the first to dismiss the doctor claim.

If I had to make a bet I'd say that Seol and Sineish are scum and I'd put Nightfall and ibaesha on place until I get a better read on them. There are hardly four scum so one of these will have to be town, but that's where my money is.

Sine and Nightfall are probably scum. I'm not so sure about Ibaesha or Seol yet.

As for who eats it tonight, I don't think they'll go after either of us, they'll try to figure out who the cop or vig is before they hit us. *shrug*

Hi there.

So, we're in quite some trouble here, aren't we? I had a feeling Sineish was innocent after he made his defense. I wasn't sure of course, but what he said made sense. I was afraid that if he turned out to be scum, the town would go against me the next day, or even in the night, that's why I made that last post. I don't think that was very clever. Anyway, he's innocent, so I'm safe, but we're getting very close to lynch-or-lose.

My suspicions are Seol, Commodore Amazing, and Nightfall.

Seol for what I said yesterday, plus he made that weird post about Sineish, me and Ibaesha being the scum. Then he tried to blame me for not reacting to that (I did that deliberately by the way). Stewie helped me out there. And he was the driving force behind the lynch of Sineish. His last post for example was suspicious to me because he showed he had understood what Sineish meant by his comments on the masons, and then said it was a scummy excuse.

Commodore is suspicious because of his relation to Seol in the thread. They voted for each other constantly during Day 1 (and still in Day 2), without ever giving reasons - even when I asked Commodore for reasons. And then Commodore makes this very weird post switching from Seol to Sineish. Mr Stoofer also saw that.

Nightfall: Still the same reasons as yesterday, not much content today (but he's not alone in that), and Seol defended him quite openly Day 1.

So I definitely think we should lynch Seol tomorrow. Then if he's scum, go after the two others.

You will probably die tonight, so if you share your suspicions, I can use those tomorrow.

Greetings, Falcone

Crap. I was certain Sineish and Nightfall were scum because of yesterday and because she seemed to be defending how quickly his bandwagon defused day 1.

Seol for what I said yesterday, plus he made that weird post about Sineish, me and Ibaesha being the scum.

So I definitely think we should lynch Seol tomorrow. Then if he's scum, go after the two others.

I agree completely and I think CA is either involved with Seol or with Stewie, possibly both.

CA didn't post anything of value at all in his last ten posts or so, only trying to hurry Sineish's lynch.

I've been wondering about Stewie. He's been hanging out on the sidelines the whole game and has been egging on whatever bw is in the lead without being part of it until the very end. His reasoning for not unvoting vIQles now strikes me as atrocious, too. It was something along the lines of "Well, if you're doctor, you're dead toninght anyway". What was this? Well, we know if we lynch a doctor we can lose a different townie tonight?
Apart from that and his idle votes for Seol and CA he hasn't really stuck his neck out at all, which means he's either a good townie or good scum.

I suspect CA and Stewie might be together since they voted for each other for such weak reasons on day one, pawed at each other for a while, but quickly declared a cease-fire.

Re, Nightfall, I'm not so sure anymore. Maybe it's just because I was so sure I had it worked out before we lynched Sineish. I have the feeeling scum were pushing his bw day one and got off when they saw a bw (vIQles) with something behind it. This meant he'd look suspicious all through the game, so he'd be an easy lynch later.

You will probably die tonight, so if you share your suspicions, I can use those tomorrow.

Yeah I'll pop in to say "go town", of course. Just make sure you don't come out too early with the fact you're the other mason. Remember, too, that since you're 100% cleared (or you will be when you point out the clues I left and Choco's description of his PM) you could risk seeming pushy and take control. I have the feeling that the town is being lead around in circles and needs a clear protown to lead it. I certainly didn't do a good job. Anyway good luck tomorrow.

Ha! Good job. Now all we need to do is wait for morning and lynch the last scum. I'm convinced it's Seol but won't have time to analyse till tomorrow.

YES!!!

So you don't think Nightfall could still be scum? I still have my doubts, but if everything goes well, it will be 4 town vs 1 scum tomorrow, and we'll have the chance to lynch Seol first and still have another chance if we're wrong. We should win this game...

The only thing about Seol that doesn't sit right with me is the fact that he also seemed to be pushing quite hard to have CA in the spotlight, and immediately agreed to viging him. I would have thought he'd be way more careful of having his scum buddy targeted when we were already stringing up one of them.

Nightfall's results contradicting mike might have been a plan. It is so bizarre that it would work. Who, after all, would suspect the player whose info had a scum lynched when neither of them were on the gallows steps? The fact that it's so illogical is what makes it a valid play. It's just such a stretch. Would I do it? No way. Too high a risk, for no gain. With three of them, they could have had us target one of the other townies.

Maybe, though, mikescum was trying to prevent someone's lynch.

Ah, apparently Seol was the favourite for the lynch before the NF vs mike debate.

More tomorrow.

I'll just give my thoughts about each player, to give us an idea who we should lynch tomorrow.

Nightfall: Mike was guilty, but that doesn't mean Nightfall is automatically innocent. It is, however, an important argument in his favour. The one thing that keeps bothering me is why Mike, even as mafia roleblocker, would lie about his night actions. Wouldn't it have been better to just tell the truth? That way nobody would be able to catch him in a lie, not on his role and not on his actions. One explanation is that he thought the town would automatically lynch him if he admitted to blocking a claimed cop (which I don't think is true, but he didn't now that). The other possibility I can think of is that he blocked Nightfall N2 (as Nightfall claims), that he saw the hint Nightfall left, and he lied about his action to try and make us lynch the cop. In both cases this doesn't really seem like optimal strategy, but it's possible. And then there is of course the possibility that they're both scum and they planned this together. But that would still mean that Mike messed up. And like you said, why would they take such an incredible risk for no clear gain? Let's think about it some more: what if they're both scum, but they didn't plan it beforehand? In that case their play makes even less sense. I just can't believe that Nightfall would claim cop in that situation, with a cop already dead and quite some other pro-town power roles claimed. The hints he left are another point in his favour I think. It would at least mean he planned it from the beginning. And if Mike panicked when he saw his partner false-claiming, he would maybe cover him for N2, but he wouldn't make it even worse by lying himself, would he?

So I don't think we should lynch Nightfall tomorrow.

Seol: In think he's good enough of a player to be pushing his partner's lynch, or not object to his vig-killing. Note that he didn't give us much new arguments to go after Commodore. He just saw the rather strong evidence I gave against him, and then just copied that. That seems a lot like "staying friends" with the innocents by joining them in the argument against their partner who's about to be killed. By the way, Seol also argued a lot against Mike. I don't think that makes him townie. That's why I made that comment to Commodore at the end (that his guilt doesn't make Seol innocent for me). I regret doing that now, because it might very well get me night-killed. And of course there's all the other arguments against him from Day 1 & 2.

Mr Stoofer: He's doing exactly what a good, vanilla, but unconfirmed townie should do in his situation: keeping a low profile, but still posting regularly, giving his opinion on who's scummy, but not trying to guide the town, agreeing to follow the confirmed people, even to his own lynch. The funny thing is, that's my only reason for suspecting him. He's going out his way to be in the town's good graces, being modest so no one suspects him. After all, if he's mafia, he should do exactly the same thing: no one is really suspecting him, so there's no need to try to guide the town in another direction.

So in conclusion, if Commodore dies tonight and is scum, we have two chances to lynch the final mafia. In that case I think we should kill Seol first, and probably win. If not, we still have another chance and then we should think long and hard about Nightfall or Stoofer. If Commodore dies and is innocent (doubtful but possible), I think we should still lynch Seol first, and then probably Nightfall, because to be fair to Commodore, he was the one pushing for the theory that Mike and Nightfall were both scum.

So that's the plan I will be following tomorrow if I'm alive. If I die, I'll be sad , but I'm confident that the town will emerge victorious!

I don't think either of us will die. I'm sure the mafia will off Stewie on the offchance that he doesn't make a choice or misses the deadline, or if he does get a choice in, because he'll be another proven protown role.

We do know that one of the three of us will get it tonight and the mafia made some strange choices in this game, but I'm sure we have it in the bag anyway.

[Falcone]

Oh, and I owe Commodore another apology. He had it figured out on day 3 that Mike and NF were both scum and that they screwed up with the N1/N2 block-thing, but I just wouldn't believe him.

NF and d8P, I hope you realize I'll never trust another word you guys tell me in a game of mafia

[Falcone]

Well, here's my reaction to d8P's claim:

So d8P can only vote 15 times in the game? Interesting. To me it seems that's a weird restriction, mainly because it doesn't seem problematic at all. Let's presume d8P stays alive for 5 days (I think it's unlikely the game will go on for much longer.) Then he can vote for three different people each day. Not a big deal, right? I'm not saying I'm suspicious of him, I just wonder why the Mod included a role like that in the game.

So I did raise my eyebrows at that restriction, but I really never wanted to believe he was scum.